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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020 A powerful new ad from Republicans against Trump

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    edited July 2020

    Re Orange County, CA note that ONE reason why OC is trending Democratic is because better-educated, high-income White suburbanites are moving that way - and movement is even faster thanks to Trump.

    The OTHER factor, is the increasing diversity of OC population. These days, the classic "little old lady in tennis shoes" is as likely to be Latina as WASP - a BIG change from the past.

    I'd be interested to know if there're any differences in the voting patterns of Latinos based on age and class. I have no idea at present.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen is now polling as high in France as Trump is in the US, though Macron and Biden still ahead
    The trend is going in the wrong direction in France.

    Anything over 30% fo Le Pen is a calamity as far as I am concerned.
    Le Pen got 33% last time.

    It's not a huge leap. I suspect she will go over 40% this time
    I'm sure she will. But she's done that by tacking hard towards the centre. Last time around, she and the FN were in favour of France leaving the Euro (via a referendum). That pledge has now been discarded, much to Salvini's disgust.

    The
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen is now polling as high in France as Trump is in the US, though Macron and Biden still ahead
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002

    More likely some mixture of:
    1. No 10 doesn't trust the outposts, so decisions can't be made without going via the centre.
    2. No 10 doesn't have good political instincts, leaving things to polling and focus groups.

    That's the trouble with the Gove-Cummings model of government; there are too many decisions that need to be taken every day for one brain to cope.

    Would anyone really be surprised if there were a U-turn between now and PMQs tomorrow?


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,217
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Republican establishment of course despise Trump, the Bushes, Romneys etc and he is seen as having taken the nomination that was rightfully owed to Jeb Bush in 2016.

    However Trump still won anyway thanks to the votes of white working class voters and I would still not count him out yet, Trafalgar Group, which was spot on in 2016 in the swing states, has the EC almost neck and neck, Biden up in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump up in Wisconsin and Florida tied

    Yes, if you cherry pick the polls where Trafalgar were accurate and disregard their misses their accuracy does look good.
    Trafalgar group were the only pollster that had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania and they also correctly forecast he would win Florida. They and they alone forecast he could win the electoral college.

    Trafalgar were the Survation 2017 of the 2016 US election, just as Survation were the only pollster to suggest a hung parliament, Trafalgar were the only pollster to suggest a Trump EC win
    Trafalgar overstated the Republicans by 0.8% in 2016 according to 538. What is notable is that they were the only pollster to overstate the Republicans, while every other pollster overstated the Democrats. However, there were plenty of pollsters who were about as accurate as Trafalgar, i.e. they were within 1% of the final result.

    In the 2018 Senate elections, Trafalgar did a reasonable job - they correctly called Cruz in Texas (although they had his lead at 9% rather than 2.6%), but they got Nevada wrong reckoning Heller was ahead by 3% when he lost by 5%. Other than Florida, where they were spot on, I think they over-estimated Republican by an average of three to five points.

    I like what they do to try and work out if people are 'shy Trump' supporters. But they are not some omniscient firm who we should trust above all others.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    edited July 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    What were his predictions like at previous elections?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    BREAKING NEWS - JOE BIDEN WINS DELAWARE PRIMARY
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    "The director of the FBI has said that acts of espionage and theft by China's government pose the "greatest long-term threat" to the future of the US.

    Speaking to the Hudson Institute in Washington, Christopher Wray described multi-pronged disruption campaign.
    He said China had begun targeting Chinese nationals living abroad, coercing their return, and was working to compromise US coronavirus research."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53329755
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Don’t forget that data is skewed by the very large increase in testing compared to that earlier in the pandemic. Another only will cases be picked up earlier (presymptomatic), but also a significant number of asymptomatic cases will be detected which simply wouldn’t have been noticed before.

    Looking at the reports of hospital admissions, it’s likely that death rates will rise significantly. How much is for now unclear, but UK policy makers should be watching the numbers closely, along with the scientists.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    How likely are kids to get Covid-19? Scientists see a ‘huge puzzle’ without easy answers

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/18/how-likely-are-kids-to-get-covid-19-scientists-see-a-huge-puzzle-without-easy-answers/
    ... I think the evidence remains weak — and that’s the complexity of answering that question properly,” said Olivier le Polain, an epidemiologist in the Geneva-based agency’s health emergencies program.

    Le Polain said that large serology studies — in which researchers collect blood samples from a cross-section of people to get a better sense of how deeply the virus has penetrated the population of a city, a region, a country — should help shed light on how likely children are to be infected in the first place.

    An early look, from Geneva, suggests when we’re talking about children we need to distinguish between young children on the one hand and tweens and teens on the other. Published last week in the journal the Lancet, the study found very little evidence of prior Covid-19 infection among children ages 5 to 9 years (the youngest included). But children ages 10 to 19 were as likely to have antibodies to the infection as adults ages 20 to 49 — and more likely than adults older than that.

    One thing that is clear is that the disease is generally far less severe for children than it can be for older adults. Deaths among children have been few and the percentage of children who need hospitalization for the illness is substantially lower than it is among adults.

    But teasing out whether kids are as likely to catch the virus and spread it has been exceedingly difficult at a time when children are spending far less time mixing with others than they normally do.

    “There is a huge puzzle over the dynamics in kids and what happens with kids,” said Nick Davies, an epidemiologist and mathematical modeler at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

    “We don’t really have that one great database, piece of evidence, or experiment that has really settled this question,” he said.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    This is a very interesting article both about a paper in its own right, and also how papers change during the pre-publication review process:

    How that preprint about a 'more contagious strain' of coronavirus changed in peer review
    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/cp-htp070220.php
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    It looks as though Trump is deliberately gambling that opening up and letting it rip might mean it’s all over by November.

    https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1280653229781483521
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Nigelb said:

    This is a very interesting article both about a paper in its own right, and also how papers change during the pre-publication review process:

    How that preprint about a 'more contagious strain' of coronavirus changed in peer review
    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/cp-htp070220.php

    Your research links are all very informative, thanks for your efforts in finding and posting them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    LOL, someone belatedly realised that you can't just take laptops out of the box and give them to kids, without setting them up for educational use first - well, not unless you want them infested with viruses and full of porn in three days flat, anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Nigelb said:

    Don’t forget that data is skewed by the very large increase in testing compared to that earlier in the pandemic. Another only will cases be picked up earlier (presymptomatic), but also a significant number of asymptomatic cases will be detected which simply wouldn’t have been noticed before.

    Looking at the reports of hospital admissions, it’s likely that death rates will rise significantly. How much is for now unclear, but UK policy makers should be watching the numbers closely, along with the scientists.
    Who knows what those pesky scientists would get up to if we weren’t watching?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness, he says nothing about there being any suggestion that Germans shouldn't criticize China once they are safely out of Hong Kong.

    One rather suspects that the German Government simply doesn't want its people being disappeared off to the mainland for show trials and condemned to die a horrible, lonely death in a Chinese prison. Which is understandable.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,464
    Good morning everyone. Cricket is about to start, at last, and the forecast for Southampton, where the first Test is being played, is rain.

    Only to be expected, of course!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness, he says nothing about there being any suggestion that Germans shouldn't criticize China once they are safely out of Hong Kong.

    One rather suspects that the German Government simply doesn't want its people being disappeared off to the mainland for show trials and condemned to die a horrible, lonely death in a Chinese prison. Which is understandable.
    Given the extra-territorial nature of the regulations (it applies to anyone of any nationality anywhere on the planet) I’m surprised more countries have not followed Canada’s lead in cautioning against travel to Hong Kong.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    BREAKING NEWS - JOE BIDEN WINS DELAWARE PRIMARY

    There are certainties in life, then there's that
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited July 2020

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1280596682162536455

    Hold on, is the Government trying to be unpopular?

    No, it's trying to go back to the "fuck you plebs" status quo ante. I suspect it will encounter significant resistance, which will be puzzling for many of them. Why don't the plebs want to go back to their lives of toil? Why WON'T they go back to their lives of toil?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Biden just needs Florida. And Trump's approach to COVID is scaring the bejesus out of old people there.
    Florida plus Michigan and Pennsylvania
    If Trump holds Pennsylvania he probably wins.
    If Trump wins PA, Biden is going down like Jeremy Corbyn did in December.

    That is still a strong possibility when state polling in many swing states is either inside or just shy of MoE. I am still not confident of the comfortable Biden win everyone is predicting.
    Of course Biden can win without PA (where btw Biden's current polling average lead is way more than margin of error). Biden wins with Florida plus one other state, plus Clinton 2016 states.

    Without Florida Biden probably needs PA. Paths to victory with neither look a bit unlikely.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    It didn't occur to me until now, that MPs get to see BoZo slapped around at PMQs and losing his rag, immediately followed by the smoothest man in cabinet...

    https://twitter.com/AthertonNWales/status/1280634467820941318

    Just the optics he wants
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    People who talk about optics as if it means owt.
    Good one.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    "but the optics, they bad!"

    why don't you post another tweet and jog on, let someone else do the mental heavy lifting for you.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Nigelb said:

    Don’t forget that data is skewed by the very large increase in testing compared to that earlier in the pandemic. Another only will cases be picked up earlier (presymptomatic), but also a significant number of asymptomatic cases will be detected which simply wouldn’t have been noticed before.

    Looking at the reports of hospital admissions, it’s likely that death rates will rise significantly. How much is for now unclear, but UK policy makers should be watching the numbers closely, along with the scientists.
    No we shouldn't. Pandemic is over. Your kids WILL all go back to school. You WILL go back to drinking and shopping. You WILL go back to toil. It's safe. Don't worry about what's happening elsewhere, we have a hard Brexit party to prepare for.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness, he says nothing about there being any suggestion that Germans shouldn't criticize China once they are safely out of Hong Kong.

    One rather suspects that the German Government simply doesn't want its people being disappeared off to the mainland for show trials and condemned to die a horrible, lonely death in a Chinese prison. Which is understandable.
    Interesting chat yesterday with a BNO HK chap married to English girl. He reckons that his brothers will migrate as a reult, parents staying in HK. Brothers will stay in Asia though, probably Singapore for reasons of food, climate and economy. 8nteresting that he put food first in his reasons. Cantonese live to eat it seems.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:
    Oh look. Powerful important influential people hate the idea of consequences for their actions.

    A bloo bloo bloo they said something stupid on Twitter and now people are making fun of them and their feelings are hurt.

    And their genius idea is to limit the speech and actions of people who disagree with them. What a fucking paradox.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    edited July 2020
    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Sounds like a childish program. Hope the government don't waste any time sending ministers to it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Sounds like a childish program. Hope the government don't waste any time sending ministers to it.
    I hope that they do - on the first show that Morgan isn't presenting after he departs on his absurdly long holiday. Yes it makes Cummings and the government look prissy not going on. But it's *Morgan* so you have to laugh
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:
    Within the next ten years a very hard or far right government will seize power in a significant western democracy. It is inevitable.

    I'd bet on it being Italy, Greece or Sweden.
    Interesting that you include Sweden.
    Also 'seize power' rather than 'be elected'.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    edited July 2020

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Sounds like a childish program. Hope the government don't waste any time sending ministers to it.
    God, you sound so Po-faced......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness, he says nothing about there being any suggestion that Germans shouldn't criticize China once they are safely out of Hong Kong.

    One rather suspects that the German Government simply doesn't want its people being disappeared off to the mainland for show trials and condemned to die a horrible, lonely death in a Chinese prison. Which is understandable.
    Interesting chat yesterday with a BNO HK chap married to English girl. He reckons that his brothers will migrate as a reult, parents staying in HK. Brothers will stay in Asia though, probably Singapore for reasons of food, climate and economy. 8nteresting that he put food first in his reasons. Cantonese live to eat it seems.
    Very sad to hear the plight of those in HK, who thought until recently that they were living in the oasis of sanity and democracy in an otherwise autocratic and totalitarian state.

    Given the speed with which the Chinese have started to enforce the new security law, there's now likely to be a severe brain drain from HK, to the benefit of other nations in the wider region and indeed the world.

    Hopefully the generous offer from the UK government, holding up their side of the 1997 deal, will lead to the UK benefitting both directly and indirectly from being seen as a good actor.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    "but the optics, they bad!"

    why don't you post another tweet and jog on, let someone else do the mental heavy lifting for you.

    You can disagree with the messenger without ignoring what he is relaying. The OPTICS - how this looks to normals - are bad. But as that's the normal state of being for this PM I'd have been surprised if it was the opposite.

    They have been utterly reliant on Brexit. People had got so het up that they'd countenance anything to secure the Brexit. So they deliver Shagger an 80 seat majority. Right up until the scientists forced him to pay attention all he wanted to do was bask in the post-Brexit glow and even now it's don't worry about either virus or details of what happens post transition You Won They Lost. I sense the Rona has knocked the stuffing out of whatever feel good was to be had. And that's before we crash out of transition and off the cliff...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:
    Within the next ten years a very hard or far right government will seize power in a significant western democracy. It is inevitable.

    I'd bet on it being Italy, Greece or Sweden.
    Interesting that you include Sweden.
    Also 'seize power' rather than 'be elected'.
    Also use the word ‘inevitable’, which is obvious nonsense.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Was it for this idiocy from the tubby Gauleiter?

    https://twitter.com/JayJay08752584/status/1280524194867019782?s=09
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness, he says nothing about there being any suggestion that Germans shouldn't criticize China once they are safely out of Hong Kong.

    One rather suspects that the German Government simply doesn't want its people being disappeared off to the mainland for show trials and condemned to die a horrible, lonely death in a Chinese prison. Which is understandable.
    Interesting chat yesterday with a BNO HK chap married to English girl. He reckons that his brothers will migrate as a reult, parents staying in HK. Brothers will stay in Asia though, probably Singapore for reasons of food, climate and economy. 8nteresting that he put food first in his reasons. Cantonese live to eat it seems.
    Very sad to hear the plight of those in HK, who thought until recently that they were living in the oasis of sanity and democracy in an otherwise autocratic and totalitarian state.

    Given the speed with which the Chinese have started to enforce the new security law, there's now likely to be a severe brain drain from HK, to the benefit of other nations in the wider region and indeed the world.

    Hopefully the generous offer from the UK government, holding up their side of the 1997 deal, will lead to the UK benefitting both directly and indirectly from being seen as a good actor.
    People are quite willing to tolerate, even migrate to totalitarian countries, with no freedom of speech, democracy or civil rights, and an active secret police provide they make money by doing so. Just look at the number of Brits who move to the Gulf States.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Foxy said:

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Was it for this idiocy from the tubby Gauleiter?

    https://twitter.com/JayJay08752584/status/1280524194867019782?s=09
    yes..

    :smiley:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness, he says nothing about there being any suggestion that Germans shouldn't criticize China once they are safely out of Hong Kong.

    One rather suspects that the German Government simply doesn't want its people being disappeared off to the mainland for show trials and condemned to die a horrible, lonely death in a Chinese prison. Which is understandable.
    Interesting chat yesterday with a BNO HK chap married to English girl. He reckons that his brothers will migrate as a reult, parents staying in HK. Brothers will stay in Asia though, probably Singapore for reasons of food, climate and economy. 8nteresting that he put food first in his reasons. Cantonese live to eat it seems.
    Very sad to hear the plight of those in HK, who thought until recently that they were living in the oasis of sanity and democracy in an otherwise autocratic and totalitarian state.

    Given the speed with which the Chinese have started to enforce the new security law, there's now likely to be a severe brain drain from HK, to the benefit of other nations in the wider region and indeed the world.

    Hopefully the generous offer from the UK government, holding up their side of the 1997 deal, will lead to the UK benefitting both directly and indirectly from being seen as a good actor.
    People are quite willing to tolerate, even migrate to totalitarian countries, with no freedom of speech, democracy or civil rights, and an active secret police provide they make money by doing so. Just look at the number of Brits who move to the Gulf States.
    There's a massive difference between temporarily moving somewhere for work, fully aware of how that country works, and being a citizen of somewhere that turns overnight from democracy to autocracy.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited July 2020
    Foxy said:

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Was it for this idiocy from the tubby Gauleiter?

    https://twitter.com/JayJay08752584/status/1280524194867019782?s=09
    Good on him. Defence procurement has been a very expensive shambles for decades, whilst being a very cosy revolving door gig in industry for former civil servants and brass hats.

    Should be very high on the list for a turning upside-down by the government.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:
    In fairness, he says nothing about there being any suggestion that Germans shouldn't criticize China once they are safely out of Hong Kong.

    One rather suspects that the German Government simply doesn't want its people being disappeared off to the mainland for show trials and condemned to die a horrible, lonely death in a Chinese prison. Which is understandable.
    Interesting chat yesterday with a BNO HK chap married to English girl. He reckons that his brothers will migrate as a reult, parents staying in HK. Brothers will stay in Asia though, probably Singapore for reasons of food, climate and economy. 8nteresting that he put food first in his reasons. Cantonese live to eat it seems.
    Very sad to hear the plight of those in HK, who thought until recently that they were living in the oasis of sanity and democracy in an otherwise autocratic and totalitarian state.

    Given the speed with which the Chinese have started to enforce the new security law, there's now likely to be a severe brain drain from HK, to the benefit of other nations in the wider region and indeed the world.

    Hopefully the generous offer from the UK government, holding up their side of the 1997 deal, will lead to the UK benefitting both directly and indirectly from being seen as a good actor.
    People are quite willing to tolerate, even migrate to totalitarian countries, with no freedom of speech, democracy or civil rights, and an active secret police provide they make money by doing so. Just look at the number of Brits who move to the Gulf States.
    There's a massive difference between temporarily moving somewhere for work, fully aware of how that country works, and being a citizen of somewhere that turns overnight from democracy to autocracy.
    Certainly so. But many people brought up in a free democratic country seem willing to junk that for money and lifestyle, often for decades at a time. Not everyone is that bothered about freedom. I think that will be true for the vast majority of Hong Kong too. Culture, family, work and lifestyle to many people are worth more than political freedom.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Don’t forget that data is skewed by the very large increase in testing compared to that earlier in the pandemic. Another only will cases be picked up earlier (presymptomatic), but also a significant number of asymptomatic cases will be detected which simply wouldn’t have been noticed before.

    Looking at the reports of hospital admissions, it’s likely that death rates will rise significantly. How much is for now unclear, but UK policy makers should be watching the numbers closely, along with the scientists.
    Who knows what those pesky scientists would get up to if we weren’t watching?
    Don’t worry - Donald has their number.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Scott_xP said:
    This seems bizarre to me. Free parking for staff was brought in at the height of the pandemic, so that key staff did not risk infection, or spreading infection by public transport. Why should it continue long term as a perk?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Scott_xP said:
    They're going have to brace themselves for dozens of headlines like this, all spun in the worst way possible by the media.

    What's actually happening is that the government generously paid the parking fees to the private parking operators for six months, as part of the emergency measures. If they hadn't done so, there wouldn't be a story now.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited July 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're going have to brace themselves for dozens of headlines like this, all spun in the worst way possible by the media.

    What's actually happening is that the government generously paid the parking fees to the private parking operators for six months, as part of the emergency measures. If they hadn't done so, there wouldn't be a story now.
    But it's actually easily fixed - at some point in the past the NHS trust decided to privatise it's parking (for profit) and that decision has come back and bitten them.

    The trusts should now be required to ensure staff do not need to pay for parking (and if it means NHS accountants and managers need to be fired to cover the cost of their stupid decision then so be it).
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This seems bizarre to me. Free parking for staff was brought in at the height of the pandemic, so that key staff did not risk infection, or spreading infection by public transport. Why should it continue long term as a perk?
    At Winchester Hospital staff are still getting free food from the canteen, even though they have no Covid patients and the hospital is empty.

    The myth that NHS staff have worked harder than ever over the past 5 months needs to be burst. 95% of staff are doing far less than they would have done a year ago.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're going have to brace themselves for dozens of headlines like this, all spun in the worst way possible by the media.

    What's actually happening is that the government generously paid the parking fees to the private parking operators for six months, as part of the emergency measures. If they hadn't done so, there wouldn't be a story now.
    But it's actually easily fixed - at some point in the past the NHS trust decided to privatise it's parking (for profit) and that decision has come back and bitten them.

    The trusts should now be required to ensure staff do not need to pay for parking (and if it means NHS accountants and managers need to be fired to cover the cost of their stupid decision then so be it).
    Except that many Trusts now can't live without the revenues from parking, which they have come to expect over the years.

    Yes, hospital parking in general is another subject, and like many people I have a vehement dislike of the way it works and is policed - but today's headline is based on the return to the status quo ante, from only a few months ago.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    Andy_JS said:
    Why are Europe Elects still putting those extra letters after each party’s name?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Scott_xP said:

    It didn't occur to me until now, that MPs get to see BoZo slapped around at PMQs and losing his rag, immediately followed by the smoothest man in cabinet...

    https://twitter.com/AthertonNWales/status/1280634467820941318

    Just the optics he wants

    What a great photo of The Snake. The guy is out there popping a bollock 25/8 for the slines.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    So is today when we see the '36 areas' that are going to be put back into lockdown or is today when the media admit they were spouting scaremongering shite ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Oh look. Powerful important influential people hate the idea of consequences for their actions.

    A bloo bloo bloo they said something stupid on Twitter and now people are making fun of them and their feelings are hurt.

    And their genius idea is to limit the speech and actions of people who disagree with them. What a fucking paradox.
    I think you need to reread the article. They are not arguing to limit speech in any way - and if you look at the signatories, they disagree between themselves on most other things.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited July 2020

    So is today when we see the '36 areas' that are going to be put back into lockdown or is today when the media admit they were spouting scaremongering shite ?

    The Melbourne situation is seriously worrying, it looks like a handful of cases ballooned to hundreds in a very short space of time.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53319554

    This is going to stop anything like a return to normality until either very good treatment or a vaccine is available. We'll all be mostly working from home where we can, for the foreseeable future.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Was it for this idiocy from the tubby Gauleiter?

    https://twitter.com/JayJay08752584/status/1280524194867019782?s=09
    Good on him. Defence procurement has been a very expensive shambles for decades, whilst being a very cosy revolving door gig in industry for former civil servants and brass hats.

    Should be very high on the list for a turning upside-down by the government.
    Defence procurement is expensive and inefficient pretty much at all times and all places. Changing specifications, demand unrestricted by price, and contractors with friends in high places. From Tudor times to the Wehrmacht to the present day it never seems to change.

    Take the Costa Rica approach and abolish the armed forces as a historical anachronism.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Andy_JS said:
    Why are Europe Elects still putting those extra letters after each party’s name?
    Membership of these European political organisations (which is not contingent upon membership of, and extends much wider than, the EU) helps people in other European countries make sense of the poll, just as we use these tags when we see a poll with parties we're not familiar with.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    You've just given me an idea. School car parks sold on the DaVinci parking. The economic recovery starts here!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Was it for this idiocy from the tubby Gauleiter?

    https://twitter.com/JayJay08752584/status/1280524194867019782?s=09
    Good on him. Defence procurement has been a very expensive shambles for decades, whilst being a very cosy revolving door gig in industry for former civil servants and brass hats.

    Should be very high on the list for a turning upside-down by the government.
    By far the bigger problem is governments of all complexions using defence procurement as corporate welfare. This government is about to give the (much delayed) Fleet Solid Support ship contract to a yard with 130 employees that hasn't built a military ship for 40 years. Because iT's BrItIsH. How do you think that project is going to go? Spoiler: it's going to be a fuck up.

    Having said that, Carter is an absolute twat who deserves a shoeing even it is from The Inflatable Reservist.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:
    Within the next ten years a very hard or far right government will seize power in a significant western democracy. It is inevitable.

    I'd bet on it being Italy, Greece or Sweden.
    Er - happened already in the US?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    The Nixons were quietly encouraging people to vote for Gary Johnson. They still have sway in the OC
    ...and the Eisenhowers too?
    I don’t know. But the Nixons have a lot of sway in Northern OC and parts of Riverside.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This seems bizarre to me. Free parking for staff was brought in at the height of the pandemic, so that key staff did not risk infection, or spreading infection by public transport. Why should it continue long term as a perk?
    Seems an odd time to be pushing health care workers back onto public transport.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited July 2020

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    This seems bizarre to me. Free parking for staff was brought in at the height of the pandemic, so that key staff did not risk infection, or spreading infection by public transport. Why should it continue long term as a perk?
    At Winchester Hospital staff are still getting free food from the canteen, even though they have no Covid patients and the hospital is empty.

    The myth that NHS staff have worked harder than ever over the past 5 months needs to be burst. 95% of staff are doing far less than they would have done a year ago.
    One of the pleasures of the crisis is a free bacon, sausage, or hash brown cob from the canteen each day. Going at the end of the month though it seems. Paid for by charity it seems.

    Funny that we can get free scoff and parking*, yet my Trust has closed theatres because it has a ban on employing bank staff. Mrs Foxy has been twiddling her thumbs in the garden for two months now. Priorities hey?

    * not for me! I still have to pay.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    Isn't the problem with hospital parking that most hospitals tend to have too little parking whether for workers, patients or visitors.

    And if most PBers get free lunches I'm surprised - I certainly don't.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Scott_xP said:
    Quick, a cabinet reshuffle! Gavin Williamson for Chancellor, that should restore the equilibrium.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    I'd guess that almost all PB'ers pay for their lunch.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    I get free parking at one of the (public sector) offices I work at, at the other we use a free Council car park. I do have to get my own lunch though. However I don't see why free parking shouldn't be part of a reasonable reward package for hospital staff though. There seems to be an attitude that the only thing of value that public sector staff should receive is salary, and pension. And while I rather suspect Dr Foxy can easily afford parking charges, it's a bit different for a healthcare assistant.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    I've just heard Mark Francois being described as an Oxygen Waster on GMB, I haven't laughed so much in months.

    :smiley:

    Was it for this idiocy from the tubby Gauleiter?

    https://twitter.com/JayJay08752584/status/1280524194867019782?s=09
    Good on him. Defence procurement has been a very expensive shambles for decades, whilst being a very cosy revolving door gig in industry for former civil servants and brass hats.

    Should be very high on the list for a turning upside-down by the government.
    I've read the Cummings blog post on the military and military procurment.

    It is absolute drivel.

    Military procurement is a shit show but nothing Cummings has said or done suggest he has any clue what the problems are and how they need to be solved.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    I pay around £15 a month to park at uni. Some councils mandate parking fees for companies etc e.g. Nottingham
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    IanB2 said:

    I'd guess that almost all PB'ers pay for their lunch.

    Back in the days when I traveled into an office to work, we paid for lunch but it was subsidised due to some historic union agreement
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    Alistair said:

    nothing Cummings has said or done suggest he has any clue what the problems are and how they need to be solved.

    Evergreen post...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    IanB2 said:

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    I'd guess that almost all PB'ers pay for their lunch.
    Thirty five years ago, when lunchtime drinking was the norm, it was The Guinea on Bruton Place. These days it's a branch of Greggs.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_xP said:
    This seems to have moved the next leader market. I was sitting at break even on my lay of Sunak but now I am under water.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,466

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    Really. I’d imagine >95 % of piers buy their own lunch. Where do you think we work?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Sandpit said:

    So is today when we see the '36 areas' that are going to be put back into lockdown or is today when the media admit they were spouting scaremongering shite ?

    The Melbourne situation is seriously worrying, it looks like a handful of cases ballooned to hundreds in a very short space of time.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53319554

    This is going to stop anything like a return to normality until either very good treatment or a vaccine is available. We'll all be mostly working from home where we can, for the foreseeable future.
    Imagine if this happens here in a few months, Scott will have a field day posting tweets blaming Boris
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    Alistair said:

    This seems to have moved the next leader market. I was sitting at break even on my lay of Sunak but now I am under water.

    It's just optics...

    Nobody cares about that :smile:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    LOS ANGELES — A directive by the Trump administration that would strip international college students of their U.S. visas if their coursework was entirely online prompted widespread confusion on Tuesday as students scrambled to clarify their statuses and universities reassessed their fall reopening policies amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    The White House measure, announced on Monday, was seen as an effort to pressure universities into reopening their gates and abandoning the cautious approaches that many have announced they would adopt to reduce Covid-19 transmission.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/student-visas-coronavirus.html?smid=fb-share
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,259

    IanB2 said:

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    I'd guess that almost all PB'ers pay for their lunch.
    Thirty five years ago, when lunchtime drinking was the norm, it was The Guinea on Bruton Place. These days it's a branch of Greggs.
    I used to work round there, but we used to drink in Shepherd's Market.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    I get free parking at one of the (public sector) offices I work at, at the other we use a free Council car park. I do have to get my own lunch though. However I don't see why free parking shouldn't be part of a reasonable reward package for hospital staff though. There seems to be an attitude that the only thing of value that public sector staff should receive is salary, and pension. And while I rather suspect Dr Foxy can easily afford parking charges, it's a bit different for a healthcare assistant.
    There is also the question of Holidays. I don't know what the average is now in the Country, but my wife a nurse of 18 years gets 11 weeks paid holiday. Other than teachers I don't know any other profession that has such a generous holiday allowance as part of their reward package.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Scott_xP said:
    Hey, according HMRC, the ports, the logistics industry what they're trying to do in 6 months isn't just impossible its insane. I assume that when the French side of the border is fully up and running (the EU already having a functioning borders system) and ours isn't that the government will try and blame the EU?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    I'd guess that almost all PB'ers pay for their lunch.
    Thirty five years ago, when lunchtime drinking was the norm, it was The Guinea on Bruton Place. These days it's a branch of Greggs.
    I used to work round there, but we used to drink in Shepherd's Market.
    Mine was the Magpie & Stump, near the Old Bailey
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Scott_xP said:
    Imagine all this were happening during a Labour or LD government, the media would be apoplectic with rage.

    But in Boris we trust.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 507

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Oh look. Powerful important influential people hate the idea of consequences for their actions.

    A bloo bloo bloo they said something stupid on Twitter and now people are making fun of them and their feelings are hurt.

    And their genius idea is to limit the speech and actions of people who disagree with them. What a fucking paradox.
    That's an odd reading of the letter. My understanding is that they are arguing that people should be able to express themselves reasonably freely without instantly being fired if they ever slip up.

    A recent example is Starkey. He's undoubtedly talented but he's made remarks which seem to be racist. I'm absolutely in favour of condeming the remarks. Do I think his publishers should no longer publish his books, even if they don't contain racist remarks? I'm not sure that I do, even though I rarely agree with him on anything. Otherwise it's not obvious that we are different, except in degree, from China banning certain types of statement.

    I agree it's difficult to know where to draw the line. But their concerns seem reasonable.
    Exactly - it's asking people, if they see a pile-on in the Twitter playground, don't join in. This isn't about public shaming, it's about witch-hunting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Oh look. Powerful important influential people hate the idea of consequences for their actions.

    A bloo bloo bloo they said something stupid on Twitter and now people are making fun of them and their feelings are hurt.

    And their genius idea is to limit the speech and actions of people who disagree with them. What a fucking paradox.
    That's an odd reading of the letter. My understanding is that they are arguing that people should be able to express themselves reasonably freely without instantly being fired if they ever slip up.

    A recent example is Starkey. He's undoubtedly talented but he's made remarks which seem to be racist. I'm absolutely in favour of condeming the remarks. Do I think his publishers should no longer publish his books, even if they don't contain racist remarks? I'm not sure that I do, even though I rarely agree with him on anything. Otherwise it's not obvious that we are different, except in degree, from China banning certain types of statement.

    I agree it's difficult to know where to draw the line. But their concerns seem reasonable.
    Do you believe people should have to face consequences for their actions? Yes or No?

    The letter is saying there should never be any consequence for someone's actions.

    Should book companies be forced to publish Starkey's books. Should TV stations be forced to have him on? Starkey has been free to say what he wants. He has faced no legal repurcussions of any sort. However other free people and companies have exercised their right of free sperch and association to call him a fucknut and not have anything to do with him.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    IanB2 said:

    Before I retired as a teacher I used to drive to work every day and I never had to pay for parking at any school I was at. I'm sure MPs don't pay, and I would suspect very few if any of the PB community pay at work. Why should we force Doctors and Nurses to pay?

    Free meals are different. When I taught in a state school I paid for all my meals, yet never did in Independent schools. I suspect very few PBers pay for their own lunches either.

    I'd guess that almost all PB'ers pay for their lunch.
    Thirty five years ago, when lunchtime drinking was the norm, it was The Guinea on Bruton Place. These days it's a branch of Greggs.
    I used to work round there, but we used to drink in Shepherd's Market.
    Those were the days! I would only have a pint because I drove into town, people I was with would have three or four. They scheduled meetings and worked like fury in the morning but nothing would get done in the afternoon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    There seemed to be a bit of a smug reaction to Le Pen losing last time, even though she increased in what her father had gotten by quite a bit.
This discussion has been closed.