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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020 A powerful new ad from Republicans against Trump

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited July 2020 in General
imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020 A powerful new ad from Republicans against Trump

One of the most intriguing aspects about the White House Race have been the powerful advertisements being produced and funded by Republicans who are opposed to Donald Trump.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    First unlike Trump
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,528
    Trump has been a known quantity for a while. Why did the Lincoln Project etc. not start this before the nomination process and allow an alternative nominee to emerge?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,876
    Second like Trump in the Popular vote in 2016
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Trump's already won the nomination. Short of the rona killing him off he'll be the nominee.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    That is the most impressive attack ad I've seen yet.

    The juxtaposition at 1:02 in the video is depressingly shocking.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    This site loads so much faster if you block Twitter. You need to implement lazy loading of Twitter embeds.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Trump has been a known quantity for a while. Why did the Lincoln Project etc. not start this before the nomination process and allow an alternative nominee to emerge?

    Because they had no chance perhaps?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    Pulpstar said:

    Trump's already won the nomination. Short of the rona killing him off he'll be the nominee.

    Indeed and if he did stand down his delegates would all go to Pence
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Trump has been a known quantity for a while. Why did the Lincoln Project etc. not start this before the nomination process and allow an alternative nominee to emerge?

    I presume because they almost certainly don't have the the support to prevent his nomination, but they may at least have enough to prevent him winning election, given how tight it was last time in several states.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    edited July 2020
    The Republican establishment of course despise Trump, the Bushes, Romneys etc and he is seen as having taken the nomination that was rightfully owed to Jeb Bush in 2016.

    However Trump still won anyway thanks to the votes of white working class voters and I would still not count him out yet, Trafalgar Group, which was spot on in 2016 in the swing states, has the EC almost neck and neck, Biden up in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump up in Wisconsin and Florida tied
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    This site loads so much faster if you block Twitter. You need to implement lazy loading of Twitter embeds.

    There are some diamonds in the rough. Nigelb does a good job of keeping us updated with some pretty informative coronavirus tweets.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump's already won the nomination. Short of the rona killing him off he'll be the nominee.

    Indeed and if he did stand down his delegates would all go to Pence
    Would this be automatic?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump's already won the nomination. Short of the rona killing him off he'll be the nominee.

    Indeed and if he did stand down his delegates would all go to Pence
    Would this be automatic?
    They will follow Trump's lead, they were handpicked by the Trump campaign and he would likely recommend they go for Pence
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    edited July 2020
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Most of its leading lights worked for the John McCain campaign in 2000 or 2008, Romney's chief strategist of 2012 is also involved.

    Perhaps bitter their candidates lost honourably while Trump won dishounourably

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lincoln_Project
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    George Conway (husband of Kellyanne Conway) which is somewhat interesting, Steve Schmidt and others. All Republicans who've put their name to it.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    kyf_100 said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    This site loads so much faster if you block Twitter. You need to implement lazy loading of Twitter embeds.

    I find that just ignoring twitter entirely results in me being much calmer and much happier.
    Sadly ignoring it doesn't stop it from loading and slowing the site down, so blocking it is best if you don't wish to see it.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    Just been looking into the politics of Brazil with Bolsanaro having COVID

    His party is the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party, which sounds like it should be left wing. His VP used to be in the military and is the first indigenous VP
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Looking at the graph I put up earlier, did Cameron really trail EdM on IPSOS-MORI leader ratings for over a year (Apr 2012-Jun 2013), or have I made a mistake copying the data?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    It's a very well produced ad. What I was struggling a bit though was, why that would necessarily incite Republicans to go with Biden. It's a bit harsh to blame Trump for the unemployment rise and today's figures again show that job openings are bouncing back. The police state bit sounds more like a AOC ad than one designed to appeal to Republicans. Likewise the shots with foreign rulers was a bit like "yeah but seen that before".
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    This site loads so much faster if you block Twitter. You need to implement lazy loading of Twitter embeds.

    There are some diamonds in the rough. Nigelb does a good job of keeping us updated with some pretty informative coronavirus tweets.
    I've got no problems with the Tweets themselves, just that the way Twitter has been implemented on this site makes the page load slower.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Or is Trump simply that bad.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    This site loads so much faster if you block Twitter. You need to implement lazy loading of Twitter embeds.

    There are some diamonds in the rough. Nigelb does a good job of keeping us updated with some pretty informative coronavirus tweets.
    I've got no problems with the Tweets themselves, just that the way Twitter has been implemented on this site makes the page load slower.
    Seems fine to me - using Safari on a Macbook. The embedded Tweets load a bit later than the main page so maybe the default for Safari is 'lazy loading'?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Good news for BT, Ericsson are releasing a new standalone version of 5G, it means they can build a 5G network without relying on their 4G network which is majority Huawei. It also means networks can build up 5G and switch off 3G and eventually 4G rather than spend money replacing it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    This site loads so much faster if you block Twitter. You need to implement lazy loading of Twitter embeds.

    There are some diamonds in the rough. Nigelb does a good job of keeping us updated with some pretty informative coronavirus tweets.
    I've got no problems with the Tweets themselves, just that the way Twitter has been implemented on this site makes the page load slower.
    Ah yeah, I notice it can be slow sometimes... especially on my crap phone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    edited July 2020
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Just been looking into the politics of Brazil with Bolsanaro having COVID

    His party is the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party, which sounds like it should be left wing. His VP used to be in the military and is the first indigenous VP

    His party is actually now Alliance for Brazil, though it has an alliance with the Labour Renewal Party.

    It is apparently a "conservative party, that respects all religions, backs family values, supports the right to self-defense, the right to possess a firearm, free-trade with the whole world, without any ideological agenda."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_for_Brazil
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Benpointer said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    RobD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    This site loads so much faster if you block Twitter. You need to implement lazy loading of Twitter embeds.

    There are some diamonds in the rough. Nigelb does a good job of keeping us updated with some pretty informative coronavirus tweets.
    I've got no problems with the Tweets themselves, just that the way Twitter has been implemented on this site makes the page load slower.
    Seems fine to me - using Safari on a Macbook. The embedded Tweets load a bit later than the main page so maybe the default for Safari is 'lazy loading'?
    Using same setup. Although they do load after page load, they all load even if you don't need to be looking at that Tweet. So say you're at the bottom, it loads the Tweets at the top.

    It's usually fine but if there's a slow connection to Twitter, the page load is slowed by that.

    I just find blocking it easier.

    I'm working on a small change to my blocking rule so it just shows the links to the Tweets as opposed to just not showing anything.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    This caught my eye re PA - doesn't look like a partisan source but suggests things not so great in two key counties in PA for the Democrats:

    https://www.citizensvoice.com/news/democrats-registration-advantage-declines-in-lackawanna-luzerne-counties/article_9977a454-336c-5341-95a6-dd0b31872328.html

    Also this

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/07/07/yougov_polling_biden_skeptics_are_moderate_democrats_143640.html

    The line from both is that Biden's potential problem seems to be with moderate Democrats not those on the left. If 12% of conservative Democrats are voting for Trump, the article makes the point that these are likely to be over-represented in swing states.

    The question is whether Biden can pivot back. He is clearly trying to appeal to the left wing of the Democrat party. There may be a feeling of "well, the polls are showing a big lead so it doesn't matter", however note this from the Republicans and their TV slots - as usual, it is what people are actually doing than saying that suggests where they actually stand

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/amid-challenging-landscape-trump-campaign-aims-to-expand-the-2020-electoral-map

    In summary, the Trump campaign is buying adverts in Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire, as it thinks it can expand the map.

    Finally, there has been much that the violence hasn't changed the polls much. Maybe but the violence in US cities is gaining a lot of newstime. How does that impact perceptions?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/us/chicago-shootings.html
    https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/06/grieving-families-of-killed-children-call-on-black-lives-matter-to-address-community-violence/
    https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia-shooting-gun-violence-increase-spike-4th-july-coronavirus-protests-20200706.html
    https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/kemp-deploy-000-national-guard-troops-after-violent-weekend/nuGXOOMNsj0zkkoO9GLNPL/
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1280530890897207296

    All the fault of Boris, of course.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    His mother-in-law will certainly vote Biden (and voted for Hillary last time). His father-in-law didn’t vote last time but I’ll ask what he will do this time. I wouldn’t be that surprised if he goes with Biden.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    It is jaw dropping how enthralled UK governments are by Saudi Arabia:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-arms-sell-saudi-arabia-military-exports-a9605636.html
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Biden just needs Florida. And Trump's approach to COVID is scaring the bejesus out of old people there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Biden just needs Florida. And Trump's approach to COVID is scaring the bejesus out of old people there.
    Florida plus Michigan and Pennsylvania
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1280530890897207296

    All the fault of Boris, of course.

    LOL - that is epic levels of incompetence
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1280596682162536455

    Hold on, is the Government trying to be unpopular?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    I've been catching up with the BBC's 'The Capture' - thriller drama series in the vein of The Bodyguard. It's good. It's a fictionalised account, but if the use of CCTV facial recognition is anything like as commonplace as is depicted (and I suspect it is), it's a reason why we've not been encouraged more strongly to don masks. The police and security services probably shat a brick at the idea.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Raving bonkers. Peter Mandelson would be really excellent, and he's a sound Thatcherite free-trader which would be very helpful for the UK.

    https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1280623847742550018
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    The Republican establishment of course despise Trump, the Bushes, Romneys etc and he is seen as having taken the nomination that was rightfully owed to Jeb Bush in 2016.

    However Trump still won anyway thanks to the votes of white working class voters and I would still not count him out yet, Trafalgar Group, which was spot on in 2016 in the swing states, has the EC almost neck and neck, Biden up in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump up in Wisconsin and Florida tied

    Yes, if you cherry pick the polls where Trafalgar were accurate and disregard their misses their accuracy does look good.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Raving bonkers. Peter Mandelson would be really excellent, and he's a sound Thatcherite free-trader which would be very helpful for the UK.

    https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1280623847742550018

    Don't be disingenuous Richard, of course it isn't bonkers. Peter Mandelson is an extreme remainer. Putting a (hopefully neutral) foreigner in the role is clearly the lesser of two evils.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Raving bonkers. Peter Mandelson would be really excellent, and he's a sound Thatcherite free-trader which would be very helpful for the UK.

    https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1280623847742550018

    Yeah. What better time to have a Brit as head of the WTO? Talk about shooting themselves in the foot.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Biden just needs Florida. And Trump's approach to COVID is scaring the bejesus out of old people there.
    Florida plus Michigan and Pennsylvania
    If Trump holds Pennsylvania he probably wins.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    Gabs3 said:

    It is jaw dropping how enthralled UK governments are by Saudi Arabia:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-arms-sell-saudi-arabia-military-exports-a9605636.html

    I look forward to a future when we're less dependent on despots buying shiny armaments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,131
    edited July 2020
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Just been looking into the politics of Brazil with Bolsanaro having COVID

    His party is the Brazilian Labour Renewal Party, which sounds like it should be left wing. His VP used to be in the military and is the first indigenous VP

    His political affiliations list on wikipedia is quite something, there's like 10 different parties there going back to the early 90s. Given the performance of some of those at presidential elections, it says something about their politics that this time he came through.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    From 2014...

    “ The NHS has been declared the best healthcare system by an international panel of experts who rated its care superior to countries which spend far more on health“

    Sounds great! Oh, hang on...

    “The only serious black mark against the NHS was its poor record on keeping people alive...”

    If you’re being picky I suppose...

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/17/nhs-health
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited July 2020
    Luckyguy1983 said:



    Don't be disingenuous Richard, of course it isn't bonkers. Peter Mandelson is an extreme remainer. Putting a (hopefully neutral) foreigner in the role is clearly the lesser of two evils.

    Err, what on earth has his view on Brexit got to do with the WTO?

    By 'neutral foreigner', you mean someone less committed to free trade than Mandelson is. In what conceivable universe is that a good idea?

    Of course George Osborne would be even better, but Mandy would be an excellent second choice, and more likely to get the gig.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,240
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1280596682162536455

    Hold on, is the Government trying to be unpopular?

    More likely some mixture of:
    1. No 10 doesn't trust the outposts, so decisions can't be made without going via the centre.
    2. No 10 doesn't have good political instincts, leaving things to polling and focus groups.

    That's the trouble with the Gove-Cummings model of government; there are too many decisions that need to be taken every day for one brain to cope.

    Would anyone really be surprised if there were a U-turn between now and PMQs tomorrow?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    Many people will be surprised to learn that the police haven't been regularly prosecuting people who steal things worth less than £200 up to now.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/start-prosecuting-shoplifters-who-steal-less-than-200-priti-patel-tells-police-5qb75kwh8
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Biden just needs Florida. And Trump's approach to COVID is scaring the bejesus out of old people there.
    Florida plus Michigan and Pennsylvania
    If Trump holds Pennsylvania he probably wins.
    If Trump wins PA, Biden is going down like Jeremy Corbyn did in December.

    That is still a strong possibility when state polling in many swing states is either inside or just shy of MoE. I am still not confident of the comfortable Biden win everyone is predicting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    https://twitter.com/Harpers/status/1280495875165425670
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    edited July 2020
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Republican establishment of course despise Trump, the Bushes, Romneys etc and he is seen as having taken the nomination that was rightfully owed to Jeb Bush in 2016.

    However Trump still won anyway thanks to the votes of white working class voters and I would still not count him out yet, Trafalgar Group, which was spot on in 2016 in the swing states, has the EC almost neck and neck, Biden up in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump up in Wisconsin and Florida tied

    Yes, if you cherry pick the polls where Trafalgar were accurate and disregard their misses their accuracy does look good.
    Trafalgar group were the only pollster that had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania and they also correctly forecast he would win Florida. They and they alone forecast he could win the electoral college.

    Trafalgar were the Survation 2017 of the 2016 US election, just as Survation were the only pollster to suggest a hung parliament, Trafalgar were the only pollster to suggest a Trump EC win
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:



    Don't be disingenuous Richard, of course it isn't bonkers. Peter Mandelson is an extreme remainer. Putting a (hopefully neutral) foreigner in the role is clearly the lesser of two evils.

    Err, what on earth has his view on Brexit got to do with the WTO?

    By 'neutral foreigner', you mean someone less committed to free trade than Mandelson is. In what conceivable universe is that a good idea?

    Of course George Osborne would be even better, but Mandy would be an excellent second choice, and more likely to get the gig.
    A great deal, Richard.
    Now we’ve left, its effective operation is of far more importance to us.

    Of the options available to us, Mandelson would be a very good choice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/Harpers/status/1280495875165425670

    It’s a good letter.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited July 2020
    Stuartinromford said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1280596682162536455

    Hold on, is the Government trying to be unpopular?

    More likely some mixture of:
    1. No 10 doesn't trust the outposts, so decisions can't be made without going via the centre.
    2. No 10 doesn't have good political instincts, leaving things to polling and focus groups.

    That's the trouble with the Gove-Cummings model of government; there are too many decisions that need to be taken every day for one brain to cope.

    Would anyone really be surprised if there were a U-turn between now and PMQs tomorrow?
    Starmer must be scratching his head tonight wondering how he can ask at least 30 questions when he is only allowed 6.

    If Johnson comes close to winning tomorrow, it is a big fail for Starmer. The killer question material available to Starmer for tomorrow is unprecedented.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    The media are obsessed with "the new normal".
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Andy_JS said:

    Many people will be surprised to learn that the police haven't been regularly prosecuting people who steal things worth less than £200 up to now.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/start-prosecuting-shoplifters-who-steal-less-than-200-priti-patel-tells-police-5qb75kwh8

    So a Home Secretary who has a reputation for taking no prisoners wants prisoners banged up. I think I've got the idea.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    The Nixons were quietly encouraging people to vote for Gary Johnson. They still have sway in the OC
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,482
    edited July 2020
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:



    Don't be disingenuous Richard, of course it isn't bonkers. Peter Mandelson is an extreme remainer. Putting a (hopefully neutral) foreigner in the role is clearly the lesser of two evils.

    Err, what on earth has his view on Brexit got to do with the WTO?

    By 'neutral foreigner', you mean someone less committed to free trade than Mandelson is. In what conceivable universe is that a good idea?

    Of course George Osborne would be even better, but Mandy would be an excellent second choice, and more likely to get the gig.
    So you're saying his political views concerning Brexit will have zero impact on the decisions he makes that could potentially affect the UK - that is as may be, but you original post claims how bonkers it is that we aren't getting behind 'a Brit' for the role. Suggesting that Mandelson's background and affiliations *will* affect his decision making. Either they will or they won't, you can't have it both ways. If they do, I would strongly suggest that his incurable remainerism would be a stronger motivating factor against the UK than dear old Blighty tugging on his heartstrings would be for it.

    He was always a deeply average politician, the fact he got the boot from the cabinet so many times for one or other of his greasy antics suggests his reputation as a Machiavellian genius was significantly exaggerated.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    The Nixons were quietly encouraging people to vote for Gary Johnson. They still have sway in the OC
    ...and the Eisenhowers too?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Raving bonkers. Peter Mandelson would be really excellent, and he's a sound Thatcherite free-trader which would be very helpful for the UK.

    https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1280623847742550018

    He's Labour.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:



    Don't be disingenuous Richard, of course it isn't bonkers. Peter Mandelson is an extreme remainer. Putting a (hopefully neutral) foreigner in the role is clearly the lesser of two evils.

    Err, what on earth has his view on Brexit got to do with the WTO?

    By 'neutral foreigner', you mean someone less committed to free trade than Mandelson is. In what conceivable universe is that a good idea?

    Of course George Osborne would be even better, but Mandy would be an excellent second choice, and more likely to get the gig.
    So you're saying his political views concerning Brexit will have zero impact on the decisions he makes that could potentially affect the UK - that is as may be, but you original post claims how bonkers it is that we aren't getting behind 'a Brit' for the role. Suggesting that Mandelson's background and affiliations *will* affect his decision making. Either they will or they won't, you can't have it both ways. If they do, I would strongly suggest that his incurable remainerism would be a stronger motivating factor against the UK than dear old Blighty tugging on his heartstrings would be for it.

    He was always a deeply average politician, the fact he got the boot from the cabinet so many times for one or other of his greasy antics suggests his reputation as a Machiavellian genius was significantly exaggerated.

    Brexit is a fiasco. Boris's govt is trying very hard to make it a bigger fiasco than it needs to be.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Gabs3 said:

    It is jaw dropping how enthralled UK governments are by Saudi Arabia:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-arms-sell-saudi-arabia-military-exports-a9605636.html

    Seriously? You think the large wads of money with which they prop up our Arms Industries have nothing to do with it?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Floater said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1280530890897207296

    All the fault of Boris, of course.

    LOL - that is epic levels of incompetence
    More importantly... where are the laptops now? Surely 25,000 of them would be hard to mislay?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    "SARAH VINE: Attacking 'Karens' is just racism by another name"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8499961/SARAH-VINE-Attacking-Karens-just-racism-name.html
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:



    Don't be disingenuous Richard, of course it isn't bonkers. Peter Mandelson is an extreme remainer. Putting a (hopefully neutral) foreigner in the role is clearly the lesser of two evils.

    Err, what on earth has his view on Brexit got to do with the WTO?

    By 'neutral foreigner', you mean someone less committed to free trade than Mandelson is. In what conceivable universe is that a good idea?

    Of course George Osborne would be even better, but Mandy would be an excellent second choice, and more likely to get the gig.
    So you're saying his political views concerning Brexit will have zero impact on the decisions he makes that could potentially affect the UK - that is as may be, but you original post claims how bonkers it is that we aren't getting behind 'a Brit' for the role. Suggesting that Mandelson's background and affiliations *will* affect his decision making. Either they will or they won't, you can't have it both ways. If they do, I would strongly suggest that his incurable remainerism would be a stronger motivating factor against the UK than dear old Blighty tugging on his heartstrings would be for it.

    He was always a deeply average politician, the fact he got the boot from the cabinet so many times for one or other of his greasy antics suggests his reputation as a Machiavellian genius was significantly exaggerated.

    Brexit is a fiasco. Boris's govt is trying very hard to make it a bigger fiasco than it needs to be.
    It needs to be the fiasco Johnson is planning, so when the UK signs up in Johnson's hand just before the next GE, the voters will be so grateful we will bestow on him another landslide.

    I've got him sussed!
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Of COURSE she will die of Covid

    https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1280609034354204674?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Gabs3 said:

    It is jaw dropping how enthralled UK governments are by Saudi Arabia:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-arms-sell-saudi-arabia-military-exports-a9605636.html

    Seriously? You think the large wads of money with which they prop up our Arms Industries have nothing to do with it?
    Did you ever even consider this government had a moral compass? Surely not!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    LadyG said:

    Of COURSE she will die of Covid

    https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1280609034354204674?s=20

    Are rope burns to the neck a symptom of Covid?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Raving bonkers. Peter Mandelson would be really excellent, and he's a sound Thatcherite free-trader which would be very helpful for the UK.

    https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1280623847742550018

    He's Labour.
    Not according to Corbynites.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    "Italian mafia bonds sold to global investors

    Instruments were backed by front companies charged with working for the ’Ndrangheta organised crime group"

    https://www.ft.com/content/bcebd77c-057b-4fd0-bd99-b97e0e559455
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Mexicanpete said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Gabs3 said:

    It is jaw dropping how enthralled UK governments are by Saudi Arabia:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-arms-sell-saudi-arabia-military-exports-a9605636.html

    Seriously? You think the large wads of money with which they prop up our Arms Industries have nothing to do with it?
    Did you ever even consider this government had a moral compass? Surely not!
    An immoral one perhaps.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Andy_JS said:

    "SARAH VINE: Attacking 'Karens' is just racism by another name"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8499961/SARAH-VINE-Attacking-Karens-just-racism-name.html

    Karen was coined to describe behaviour. Not race, class or even gender. But an attitude. One could be a male Karen, a black, gay or transgender one.
    If it is being used like she described it is inaccurate. Or muddying the waters.
    Or language evolving.
    I speak as a partner of a Karen. The least Karen Karen in all Karendom.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Gabs3 said:

    It is jaw dropping how enthralled UK governments are by Saudi Arabia:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-arms-sell-saudi-arabia-military-exports-a9605636.html

    Seriously? You think the large wads of money with which they prop up our Arms Industries have nothing to do with it?
    Did you ever even consider this government had a moral compass? Surely not!
    An immoral one perhaps.
    A fair point!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    That is very worrying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280593064315228160?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    That is very worrying.
    Le Pen is now polling as high in France as Trump is in the US, though Macron and Biden still ahead
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    That is very worrying.
    Le Pen is now polling as high in France as Trump is in the US, though Macron and Biden still ahead
    The trend is going in the wrong direction in France.

    Anything over 30% fo Le Pen is a calamity as far as I am concerned.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280644618380509184
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "SARAH VINE: Attacking 'Karens' is just racism by another name"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8499961/SARAH-VINE-Attacking-Karens-just-racism-name.html

    Karen was coined to describe behaviour. Not race, class or even gender. But an attitude. One could be a male Karen, a black, gay or transgender one.
    If it is being used like she described it is inaccurate. Or muddying the waters.
    Or language evolving.
    I speak as a partner of a Karen. The least Karen Karen in all Karendom.
    This is all really so fucking stupid. Debating Karenishness. The Kardashians get enough free publicity as it is. The BBC is becoming the stupidest of social media and it persists in wanting me to finance it for doing so. It has to act its age.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213
    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Biden just needs Florida. And Trump's approach to COVID is scaring the bejesus out of old people there.
    Florida plus Michigan and Pennsylvania
    Technically, isn't it Florida plus one other state (of Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia and Michigan).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Take a look at Texas. Dems made advances in 2018 in SUBURBAN areas for example Dallas Metroplex & poised to make more in 2020, for example think we will win TX state house of representatives
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213
    MrEd said:

    In summary, the Trump campaign is buying adverts in Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire, as it thinks it can expand the map.

    While that's true, it's also been buying adverts in Iowa, Georgia and Ohio - all of which should be fairly safe states for him.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Take a look at Texas. Dems made advances in 2018 in SUBURBAN areas for example Dallas Metroplex & poised to make more in 2020, for example think we will win TX state house of representatives
    Night night
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Whole point of Lincoln Project & suchlike is to persuade fellow GOPers to vote FOR Biden.

    Last time bulk of Republicans unhappy with Trumpsky did NOT vote for him but also did NOT vote for Hillary, thus -1 net versus The Donald.

    THIS year, many of these same folks are girding themselves to actually vote for Biden, who is way more palatable than HC, esp. after past 4 years, thus -2 vers DT.

    YOU DO THE MATH.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    edited July 2020
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    Within the next ten years a very hard or far right government will seize power in a significant western democracy. It is inevitable.

    I'd bet on it being Italy, Greece or Sweden.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    Within the next ten years a very hard or far right government will seize power in a significant western democracy. It is inevitable.

    I'd bet on it being Italy, Greece or Sweden.
    Italy seems the most likely because right-wing parties are already on around 50% in the polls there and have been for quite a while.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    That is very worrying.
    Le Pen is now polling as high in France as Trump is in the US, though Macron and Biden still ahead
    The trend is going in the wrong direction in France.

    Anything over 30% fo Le Pen is a calamity as far as I am concerned.
    Le Pen got 33% last time.

    It's not a huge leap. I suspect she will go over 40% this time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    edited July 2020
    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    Within the next ten years a very hard or far right government will seize power in a significant western democracy. It is inevitable.

    I'd bet on it being Italy, Greece or Sweden.
    It already has in the US and Brazil.

    I think Italy is the likeliest option in western Europe with Salvini, Le Pen's vote is up but Macron should still win the run off
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    edited July 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who is actually behind and paying for The Lincoln Project and Republicans against Trump? Whilst I fully understand why traditional, sane Republicans would be aghast at Trump's behaviour, it seems a bridge too far for them to be campaigning effectively for the Democrats in such a vigorous way. There's something very odd about the whole thing,

    Dunno, my brother’s American in-laws are lifelong establishment registered Republicans. They loathe Trump with a passion one would expect only of the most partisan of Democrats.
    Presumably they will vote for an independent, if a suitable one stands, or just not vote at all, rather than vote for Biden?
    Many already voted against Trump in 2016, eg wealthy, conservative Orange County California did not vote for the GOP candidate for President for the first time since 1936 when it went for Hillary. However establishment Republicans tend to be concentrated on the coasts, Hillary already won them, it is the rustbelt Biden needs
    Biden just needs Florida. And Trump's approach to COVID is scaring the bejesus out of old people there.
    Florida plus Michigan and Pennsylvania
    Technically, isn't it Florida plus one other state (of Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia and Michigan).
    Trump can't really afford to lose Florida as part of any plausible scenarios. Technically he can win without it but it's difficult to imagine him holding states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania while losing the state.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    Within the next ten years a very hard or far right government will seize power in a significant western democracy. It is inevitable.

    I'd bet on it being Italy, Greece or Sweden.
    It already has in the US and Brazil.

    I think Italy is the likeliest option with Salvini, Le Pen's vote is up but Macron should still win the run off
    I disagree. I don't think Bolsanaro or Trump are classically far right.

    They are both vulgar, inept, quasi-right wing populists, and as such can be quite easily defeated, because they are so clearly useless, or pointless. Trump is a fucking clown. Bolsanaro is similar.

    The true threat is a Putin of the right, but in the West. A smart, articulate leader, who is apparently effective, and who expands the nation's power, but who is also happy to limit freedoms and persecute minorities to do so, and with violence. Yet who pretends to observe democracy.







  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,595
    John Gray's latest article.

    "The case for taking more risks
    Matthew Crawford's new book is one of the most original works of practical philosophy to be published in years"

    https://unherd.com/2020/06/the-case-for-taking-more-risks/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,213
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Raving bonkers. Peter Mandelson would be really excellent, and he's a sound Thatcherite free-trader which would be very helpful for the UK.

    https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/1280623847742550018

    He's Labour.
    He's pro-Mandelson.

    I think picking Mandelson would have been a very smart choice: he's an extremely effective operator, and he'd probably be more pro-Uk than whoever actually end ups with the job. In other words, don't let great be the enemy of good.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707
    Right-wing talking head tries to do the responsible thing and promote masks, and gets slated for it by her followers and accused of falling for the “Democratic hoax”.

    https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1280652853036507138?s=21
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Boris Johnson's government is a shambles for the same reason Donald Trump's government is a shambles. Neither is a builder, instead both are wreckers.

    That's why Putin is on their side. Cause he wants to wreck the west. And BoJo & Trumpsky are perfect tools, witting or otherwise.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re Orange County, CA note that ONE reason why OC is trending Democratic is because better-educated, high-income White suburbanites are moving that way - and movement is even faster thanks to Trump.

    The OTHER factor, is the increasing diversity of OC population. These days, the classic "little old lady in tennis shoes" is as likely to be Latina as WASP - a BIG change from the past.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,138
    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1280594501925572609?s=20

    Within the next ten years a very hard or far right government will seize power in a significant western democracy. It is inevitable.

    I'd bet on it being Italy, Greece or Sweden.
    It already has in the US and Brazil.

    I think Italy is the likeliest option with Salvini, Le Pen's vote is up but Macron should still win the run off
    I disagree. I don't think Bolsanaro or Trump are classically far right.

    They are both vulgar, inept, quasi-right wing populists, and as such can be quite easily defeated, because they are so clearly useless, or pointless. Trump is a fucking clown. Bolsanaro is similar.

    The true threat is a Putin of the right, but in the West. A smart, articulate leader, who is apparently effective, and who expands the nation's power, but who is also happy to limit freedoms and persecute minorities to do so, and with violence. Yet who pretends to observe democracy.







    Well Salvini could fit the bill

    https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1159793206516682763?s=20
This discussion has been closed.