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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » WH2020 looks set to be the biggest political betting event of all time
With less than 4 months to go until the presidential election the signs are that this will be the biggest political betting event of all time. Probably because of the way that Trump is viewed with extremes on both sides this contest is getting more attention from punters than previous reces.
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Headline - 38
7 days - 21 - quite a lot of back dating
Yesterday - 6
As ever last 3-5 days subject to revision - last 5 days included for completeness
Last 10 days -
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/believe-the-polls-this-time/ar-BB16fqv1
I'm sure that the slave trade removed a few of the people from an area, not all of them.
Autopsies are another issue. As if discovering deaths that didn't seem to be caused by COVID19 at the time.
I think it unlikely the EU (or indeed Japan) will allow cross-cumulation of content, without the UK offering a balancing concession of major value to the EU. This is where Japan, the EU and the UK, all having preferential trade with each other, agree to pool their content for any cross-border trade.
Big, big issue for those car companies keeping their manufacturing in the UK
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2020/jul/03/david-starkey-dropped-publisher-racist-remarks-harpercollins
So binning him on those grounds would be fair.
Why won't ScotGov immediately agree to the revised list of non quarantined countries we've given them? We gave them 30mins to check it.
Why won't ScotGov immediately agree to the revised, revised list of non quarantined countries we've given them? Confused messaging is damaging confidence.
etc.
https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1279018758439346177?s=20
For me Trump could only repeat his 2016 success by delivering bigly on the economy. In fairness, pre Covid, he had quite a lot to say in that connection but he now looks sunk. Almost certainly he is going to be going into this election with the highest unemployment since Hoover, determined to attack the healthcare of those who have lost their jobs in the middle of a pandemic. I am really struggling to see what could save him now.
Early postmortem mapping of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in patients with COVID-19 and correlation to tissue damage
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.01.182550v1
...We present a detailed RNA mapping in 61 tissues and organs of 11 deceased patients with COVID-19. The autopsies were performed within the (very) early postmortem interval to avoid bias due to RNA and tissue degradation. Very high viral loads were detected in the lungs of most patients and then correlated to severe tissue damage. In addition, intact viral particles could be verified in the lung tissue by transmission electron microscopy. However, viral RNA was detected throughout further extra-pulmonary tissues and organs without visible tissue damage, inflammatory and prothrombotic factors were elevated in all patients. In conclusion, the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 RNA throughout the body supports the hypothesis of a maladaptive host response with viremia and multi-organ dysfunction....
The endocrine system displayed particularly high levels of virus in some individuals.
And at least in Scotland it's the registrar who issues and signs them.
In a recent death in my family (the person was found dead overnight) it was the ambulance folk who confirmed death (pretty obvious) - no autopsy though in contrast to the previous occasion 10 years ago. I reported it so i f anyone signed anything it was me, metaphorically speaking. The registrar did check in person over the phone with the person's doctor for a likely cause.
This is pretty standard trade deal negotiation stuff, and perfectly valid argument - as opposed to arguing over fish, or forcing future EU legislation on the UK.
HORSE
BATTERY
The Economist is publishing what looks like a very good probabilistic model of the US presidential election, similar in method to Nate Silver's. It's freely available here:
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
The NYT and fivethirtyeight.com don't yet seem to publishing the results of their models, but presumably will do so fairly soon.
Any others that we should know about?
2. I'd wait for @ydoethur to review it.
The real problems will come when there’s a massive spike in cases in, say, Majorca, and the gov is forced to either cancel all fights back or quarantine everyone who does - in the same way as they quarantined the Wuhan arrivals back in January.
But I am happy to accept @TheWhiteRabbit's explanation. It is dull enough to be true.
The specific worry for the UK is whether it is is left with ANY significant car manufacturing post-Brexit/Covid. Japan and the EU certainly will have large scale manufacturing, albeit reduced.
In the case of Nissan and Toyota, if the analysis above is correct, the UK needs the EU and Japan to agree to cross-cumulation of content for those companies to keep manufacturing in the UK. FTAs typically don't include cross-cumulation.
I didn't compare Boris to Clark Kent - and if I really wanted to compliment him I'd compare him to Bruce Wayne instead. But I don't, not like that.
Indeed, King Hal's semen played a MAJOR role in English & world history.
Heed not the alien preacher
His creed without reason or faith
For the foundation stones of his temple
Are the bollocks of Henry the Eighth
On the other hand, the fairly close tracking of excess deaths by the reported covid deaths by NRS (weekly data) suggests that it hasn't made for underreporting of covid deaths in Scotland, in apparent contrast to England.
Different schools will have done different amounts, but the school I teach at has been running lessons as normal, just online. Some (though by no means all) have been live teaching, I have been pre-recording videos with a mixture of notes and example questions. We have been using Microsoft Teams to allow pupils to submit work and sending them feedback on it via the same route.
Most pupils have engaged well, but it does rely on a decent internet connection to work, which has been a problem for some.
The hardest thing for me as a teacher of Physics is that it is very difficult to do practical work. I have also had to resist the temptation to just find a YouTube video that does roughly what I want, (although I have done for a couple of things where they just had a bigger budget: it is difficult to do justice to the life cycle of a star with the digital equivalent of a white board).
The point I am trying to make is that it is not just the independent sector which has been providing significant support for its pupils over the last few months.
Trump 2020 is like France 1940. Both wanting to repeat their 11th-hour victories in previous conflict. BUT history does NOT repeat itself, at least not that way.
In 2016, Trumpsky was convinced he was going to lose. He was wrong.
In 2020, he thinks he can win by re-running his previous campaign. Wrong again.
But -
https://youtu.be/TmENMZFUU_0
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1278895037804314624?s=20
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/53276717
Not often I get to agree with Michael Vaughan, but I agree this is the biggest load of codswallop I’ve ever heard. The Govt seems to be going out of its way, for god knows what reasons, to find excuses to prevent some activity from restarting whilst allowing others of incredibly greater scales of risk.
Beyond possibly the prevention of large scale gatherings (although even that’s undermined by the allowing of all the mass protests of recent weeks) the basic presumption should be that all activity should be allowed to resume as long as reasonable mitigation measures are taken to remove potential (and avoidable) areas of risk.
Just because “leisure activities” such as cricket aren’t as obviously necessary for the successful functioning of the country and economy, doesn’t mean they should just be dismissed in attempts to restart.
The earlier discussion was more about the technology, and how how many state school pupils don’t have enough computing devices at home to allow them to participate in the online lessons - whereas private schools had managed iPads or laptops for each pupil.
The response from some state and private schools was to innovate like crazy to try and provide some education.
Especially as Ivanka won't be able to sell her sweat-shop fashions quite like old times.
The two Mercedes cars have been in a class of their own, as we thought might be the case. Force Point Canada, or whatever they’re called this week, are also looking good in their 2019 Mercedes copy.