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SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited July 2020 in General

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    This still feels pretty thin. No one will care about Leicester (or anywhere else for that matter) when the real economic pain begins to be felt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    tlg86 said:

    This still feels pretty thin. No one will care about Leicester (or anywhere else for that matter) when the real economic pain begins to be felt.

    If we have more Leicesters then there's a narrative to be made that the government's handling of the pandemic has made the economic pain much much worse.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    @Foxy. Do people coming into hospitals with pillar 2 positive results confirmed (to them) still get pillar 1 tested and counted? Or is there a chance that pillar 1, public, numbers are being depressed by the existence of pillar 2?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    edited July 2020
    tlg86 said:

    This still feels pretty thin. No one will care about Leicester (or anywhere else for that matter) when the real economic pain begins to be felt.

    I've heard, "at least you've got your health," as a look on the bright side saying to someone down in the dumps, but I can't imagine anyone telling someone whose lost a family member to disease, "at least you've got your job."

    Lost jobs can more easily be replaced than lost lives.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Looking at the actual data it seems very unlikely more local lockdowns are imminent.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Is it no longer a notifiable disease?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1278432926473084928
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    More comment on the Pfizer vaccine,
    Confirms my initial positive impression:
    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate

    FWIW, I think there will be an effective vaccine (and perhaps several) by the year end. And at that point, things could improve quite quickly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    This still feels pretty thin. No one will care about Leicester (or anywhere else for that matter) when the real economic pain begins to be felt.

    If we have more Leicesters then there's a narrative to be made that the government's handling of the pandemic has made the economic pain much much worse.
    Yes, not much enthusiasm for lockdown from the city folk. Not least my colleagues planning holidays next week. Fortunately, I live outside the line so can do as I please.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Nigelb said:

    More comment on the Pfizer vaccine,
    Confirms my initial positive impression:
    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate

    FWIW, I think there will be an effective vaccine (and perhaps several) by the year end. And at that point, things could improve quite quickly.

    Roll on the biggest Christmas party ever.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    New outbreak at a bed factory in Batley. Though 8 miles away in the north of Kirklees, it's a worry. Could have most of my family covered by separate lockdowns by next week at this rate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    @Foxy. Do people coming into hospitals with pillar 2 positive results confirmed (to them) still get pillar 1 tested and counted? Or is there a chance that pillar 1, public, numbers are being depressed by the existence of pillar 2?
    Yes, they would be tested, not least because GPs and Hospitals don't get informed of pillar 2 results.

    Inpatient numbers stable through June, at about 75 with 10 on ICU. A slight shift to younger patients on respiratory wards.

    2/3 of our population is in the County, where cases are now rare. The rise in cases from the Eastern part of the city was probably masked by the drop in the County.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    TBF they were doing everything incredibly fast and under real pressure.

    I’m sure it was overlooked.

    So you fix it and move on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    More comment on the Pfizer vaccine,
    Confirms my initial positive impression:
    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate

    FWIW, I think there will be an effective vaccine (and perhaps several) by the year end. And at that point, things could improve quite quickly.

    Roll on the biggest Christmas party ever.
    I’m hoping, not banking on it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    A second wave - God forbid - will be utterly defining for Boris. If it happens then his reputation, authority and career could explode in a way the likes of which we have never seen; if not, we will be forced to conclude that Boris resides amongst the political immortals.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    Why should those on furlough or 'working' from home get the first opportunity ?

    Let people make their own choices and accept responsibility for it.

    Though nobody I work with has any intention of going anywhere near a pub for at least a week afterwards.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    OK, beyond the current hotspots (this week's numbers out tomorrow), my geograpihical spread theory would have the following as the sort of locations vulnerable to.local outbreaks in the coming weeks:

    Catterick, Burnley, Halifax, Grimsby, Worksop, Nottingham, Buxton, Northampton, Cambridge, Chelmsford, Dover, Wycombe, Bournemouth, Bath, Bridtol
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    Exactly. Mental.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    RIP Everton Weekes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jul/01/our-hero-west-indies-legend-sir-everton-weekes-dies-aged-95-cricket

    Legend.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    The one good factor is the weekend weather forecast is for rain
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707
    https://twitter.com/thedailyshow/status/1278402995324178433?s=21
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    another_richard said:

    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    Why should those on furlough or 'working' from home get the first opportunity ?

    Let people make their own choices and accept responsibility for it.

    Though nobody I work with has any intention of going anywhere near a pub for at least a week afterwards.
    Duh!

    You do know you can go to the pub in the evening - even if you worked during the day, right?

    Monday would have been sensible; Saturday is asking for trouble.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited July 2020
    Charles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    TBF they were doing everything incredibly fast and under real pressure.

    I’m sure it was overlooked.

    So you fix it and move on.
    I have pointed out all along that the obsession with testing numbers was daft. The purpose of testing is to trace and isolate, which we are still failing at.

    This is what is happening with tracing in Leicester, according to todays PHE report:


    1.5 Backward contact tracing
    A current study on the utility of backward contact tracing is being piloted across England. Leicester city residents have been included in the pilot. Against an intended sample of 50 cases, only 11 cases in the city had successfully completed the study until 24 June 2020. Preliminary analysis of the 11 cases did not identify any events with multiple households attending. Most of the cases did not report leaving home, other than for visiting supermarkets.


    Tracing 11 cases seems pretty feeble to me in a city with 944 cases, 90+ Tier 2, over 2 weeks.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Well someone's drawn up the contracts and we all know there's a long list of government departments and agencies making a bollox of them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707
    Does the legislation on notifiable diseases not apply to Deloitte?

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/notifiable-diseases-and-causative-organisms-how-to-report
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    The one good factor is the weekend weather forecast is for rain
    Probably helpful, yes.

    Maybe Cummings' superforecasters knew several weeks ago it was going to rain on the 4th July :wink:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, beyond the current hotspots (this week's numbers out tomorrow), my geograpihical spread theory would have the following as the sort of locations vulnerable to.local outbreaks in the coming weeks:

    Catterick, Burnley, Halifax, Grimsby, Worksop, Nottingham, Buxton, Northampton, Cambridge, Chelmsford, Dover, Wycombe, Bournemouth, Bath, Bridtol

    No, Northern Mill towns, possibly Medway and West London.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited July 2020
    williamglenn said:

    Does the legislation on notifiable diseases not apply to Deloitte?

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/notifiable-diseases-and-causative-organisms-how-to-report

    That's what I wondered below. If it is still a notifiable disease, then it has to be reported, contract or not. Although perhaps not in a useful format?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    edited July 2020
    williamglenn said:

    Does the legislation on notifiable diseases not apply to Deloitte?

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/notifiable-diseases-and-causative-organisms-how-to-report

    Well that seems to only apply to registered medical practitioners/laboratories.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    Why should those on furlough or 'working' from home get the first opportunity ?

    Let people make their own choices and accept responsibility for it.

    Though nobody I work with has any intention of going anywhere near a pub for at least a week afterwards.
    Duh!

    You do know you can go to the pub in the evening - even if you worked during the day, right?

    Monday would have been sensible; Saturday is asking for trouble.
    Sure, but I support giving people as much personal freedom as possible.

    But they need to accept responsibility for their actions.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    I don’t understand why they didn’t just open them from today. Would have taken the pressure off slightly, opening midweek.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    It also suggests that NY got its lockdown too late and the sunbelt got their's too early.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,675
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    How much have you worked for the NHS during the pandemic?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,707
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    It's an interesting proxy for connectedness.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited July 2020
    another_richard said:

    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    Why should those on furlough or 'working' from home get the first opportunity ?

    Let people make their own choices and accept responsibility for it.

    Though nobody I work with has any intention of going anywhere near a pub for at least a week afterwards.
    I’m off to the pub on Saturday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    TBF they were doing everything incredibly fast and under real pressure.

    I’m sure it was overlooked.

    So you fix it and move on.
    I have pointed out all along that the obsession with testing numbers was daft. The purpose of testing is to trace and isolate, which we are still failing at.

    This is what is happening with tracing in Leicester, according to todays PHE report:


    1.5 Backward contact tracing
    A current study on the utility of backward contact tracing is being piloted across England. Leicester city residents have been included in the pilot. Against an intended sample of 50 cases, only 11 cases in the city had successfully completed the study until 24 June 2020. Preliminary analysis of the 11 cases did not identify any events with multiple households attending. Most of the cases did not report leaving home, other than for visiting supermarkets.


    Tracing 11 cases seems pretty feeble to me in a city with 944 cases, 90+ Tier 2, over 2 weeks.
    Agreed.
    Building public health capacity from scratch is a hard task.

    (And Deliotte seem a bit crap.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Contrasting headlines

    Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/thursdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12019257?inApp=true
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    The one good factor is the weekend weather forecast is for rain
    Er no. That will push people inside if it transpires (will be mainly in the north and west, not much expected down here)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited July 2020
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    No, it’s saying that no one learned the lessons of NYC’s mistakes.
    “Catching up” was not inevitable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    How much have you worked for the NHS during the pandemic?
    Airbus have in a big way and many many others in the private sector
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    To an extent, I think that true of Leicester. We got of relatively lightly in April. A number of other towns which now seems to be having problems did too. There may be a catch up element.

    One interesting point on pillar 2 testing is that in most regions twice as many pillar 1 have been done compared with pillar 2. The exception is the East Midlands where more p2 have been done than p1.

    There are now 4 mobile testing stations in East Leicester, previously only accessible by car outside the city. Problematic considering the outbreak is in an inner city district with low levels of car ownership.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    The one good factor is the weekend weather forecast is for rain
    Probably helpful, yes.

    Maybe Cummings' superforecasters knew several weeks ago it was going to rain on the 4th July :wink:
    Why will this be helpful? Outdoors is far safer!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    OK, beyond the current hotspots (this week's numbers out tomorrow), my geograpihical spread theory would have the following as the sort of locations vulnerable to.local outbreaks in the coming weeks:

    Catterick, Burnley, Halifax, Grimsby, Worksop, Nottingham, Buxton, Northampton, Cambridge, Chelmsford, Dover, Wycombe, Bournemouth, Bath, Bridtol

    No, Northern Mill towns, possibly Medway and West London.
    To be fair, I'm skipping over anywhere in the current top 10, and I still have some mill towns present.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    No, in the couple of headers that I have written on the NHS, I have advocated private facilities. The simple truth is that they were barely used in the peak of the wave. It was the NHS owned facilities that shouldered the burden.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Not sure if this has been posted: https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare

    It's quite good news about hospitalised patients etc. - Also, the data are (finally!) better presented than before so you get a better sense of trends without having to download the data and play with it each day. The level of granularity is still not great though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    No, in the couple of headers that I have written on the NHS, I have advocated private facilities. The simple truth is that they were barely used in the peak of the wave. It was the NHS owned facilities that shouldered the burden.
    Wales news was showing how Spire private hospitals are treating patients and no longer accept private patients. Public Private cooperation is good and the way forward
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,434
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    Big G, I think we can trust the Doc on this one.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    Big G, I think we can trust the Doc on this one.
    I do not accept that the private sector involvement across the UK did not contribute to preventing the NHS being overwhelmed
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1278432926473084928

    Virtually all the housing data that I see come from biased sources, usually trying to ramp sales (amazing opportunities etc.). I'm advising a friend on house purchase in Oxfordshire and am genuinely unsure what to suggest is likely - are we expecting a continued slide in prices, or a bounce back, or what?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1278365841877274625
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    NickPalmer said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1278432926473084928

    Virtually all the housing data that I see come from biased sources, usually trying to ramp sales (amazing opportunities etc.). I'm advising a friend on house purchase in Oxfordshire and am genuinely unsure what to suggest is likely - are we expecting a continued slide in prices, or a bounce back, or what?
    Who knows but I expect it will vary from area to area.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/stejormur/status/1278366130009186305?s=20
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    No, in the couple of headers that I have written on the NHS, I have advocated private facilities. The simple truth is that they were barely used in the peak of the wave. It was the NHS owned facilities that shouldered the burden.
    Wales news was showing how Spire private hospitals are treating patients and no longer accept private patients. Public Private cooperation is good and the way forward
    Yes, that is a national programme, but the actual numbers being treated in the private facilities have been quite modest, and non covid backlog cases.

    The contract is being extended for some months. A bit tough on anyone with private insurance as they cannot be seen. It is an irony that I pointed out in my recent header, that the Tory government has effectively stopped private medical care across most of the country.

    Incidentally Spire hospitals have run at a loss over recent years, but the government contract is as costs plus, so they are finally running at a profit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,149
    Andy_JS said:

    https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1278365841877274625

    That is quite a significant departure from her words there.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    Nigelb said:

    More comment on the Pfizer vaccine,
    Confirms my initial positive impression:
    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/01/pfizer-and-biontechs-first-vaccine-candidate

    FWIW, I think there will be an effective vaccine (and perhaps several) by the year end. And at that point, things could improve quite quickly.

    That’s a nice one to drift off to.

    I was thinking next spring earliest for my shot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    Big G, I think we can trust the Doc on this one.
    I do not accept that the private sector involvement across the UK did not contribute to preventing the NHS being overwhelmed
    It didn't. Private hospital capacity was barely used.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    FPT:
    rcs1000 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Going back to Uber, I reckon they're going bust within 12 months.

    They had 9bn in "Unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments" at end March. They're losing something like 3bn a quarter.

    Coronavirus isn't going away any time soon in their main US market or their second largest market, Brazil.

    Could all be over by end of the year.

    They're not going to go bust because someone will be prepared to invest in them, even if not at current prices.

    Ultimately, at some point CV-19 will be over, either because a hundred million people have died and the rest of us have some form of immunity, or because a vaccine is created.

    There will then again be a need for an efficient way of matching drivers with riders. Uber is an efficient way of matching drivers with riders. It also has a massive market share in places like London, Los Angeles, etc.

    So, I would not bet on Uber going bust.
    Fancy betting with me? £50 to charity says they are bust by 31st Dec 2021.
    I say the uber app is not hard to develop, there are limited barriers to entry and once they stop subsidising taxi services they are toast.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/stejormur/status/1278366130009186305?s=20

    The replies to that are brilliant

    Is it something to do with race?

    https://twitter.com/Raedwald/status/1278388312391200768?s=20

    Or is it air con?

    https://twitter.com/indyholland/status/1278389818708418560?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    LadyG said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/stejormur/status/1278366130009186305?s=20

    The replies to that are brilliant

    Is it something to do with race?

    https://twitter.com/Raedwald/status/1278388312391200768?s=20

    Or is it air con?

    https://twitter.com/indyholland/status/1278389818708418560?s=20
    Or just it was the North first, and now it's the South. Not that difficult.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    LadyG said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/stejormur/status/1278366130009186305?s=20

    The replies to that are brilliant

    Is it something to do with race?

    https://twitter.com/Raedwald/status/1278388312391200768?s=20

    Or is it air con?

    https://twitter.com/indyholland/status/1278389818708418560?s=20
    Air con may be a factor in spreading. The virus likes cool moist surfaces.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/stejormur/status/1278366130009186305?s=20

    The replies to that are brilliant

    Is it something to do with race?

    https://twitter.com/Raedwald/status/1278388312391200768?s=20

    Or is it air con?

    https://twitter.com/indyholland/status/1278389818708418560?s=20
    Or just it was the North first, and now it's the South. Not that difficult.
    No. The way both later maps mirror the first is more than just a North-South thing. They match on a granular, county level

    It's probably something to do with race AND aircon (as well as the bug moving south)

    We know that the virus is bad in the most BAMEy parts of the UK; there is no logical reason why this should not be the case in America. BAME citizens are more likely to have front line dangerous jobs, to lack second homes, to be in crowded housing, to have religious beliefs that may lead to transmission, and so on.

  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Foxy said:

    LadyG said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/stejormur/status/1278366130009186305?s=20

    The replies to that are brilliant

    Is it something to do with race?

    https://twitter.com/Raedwald/status/1278388312391200768?s=20

    Or is it air con?

    https://twitter.com/indyholland/status/1278389818708418560?s=20
    Air con may be a factor in spreading. The virus likes cool moist surfaces.
    I am convinced aircon is a vector
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    LadyG said:

    RobD said:

    LadyG said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/stejormur/status/1278366130009186305?s=20

    The replies to that are brilliant

    Is it something to do with race?

    https://twitter.com/Raedwald/status/1278388312391200768?s=20

    Or is it air con?

    https://twitter.com/indyholland/status/1278389818708418560?s=20
    Or just it was the North first, and now it's the South. Not that difficult.
    No. The way both later maps mirror the first is more than just a North-South thing. They match on a granular, county level

    It's probably something to do with race AND aircon (as well as the bug moving south)

    We know that the virus is bad in the most BAMEy parts of the UK; there is no logical reason why this should not be the case in America. BAME citizens are more likely to have front line dangerous jobs, to lack second homes, to be in crowded housing, to have religious beliefs that may lead to transmission, and so on.

    I dunno, isn't it just tracking density? There might be a second-order effect at work here of course.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    I think it was HYUFD pointed out the flaw with these charts, last time they were posted here.
    It is difficult to know what is really going on because we don' know the totals. A realistic scenario for these graphs is that the blue states start off with lots os cases and the red states not so many. Ten the number of new cases in the blue states drops, but stays constant in the red states. You would exactly this graph.
    A similar plrot showing total numbers not proportions would be far more informative.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Unexplained mass elephant dying:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53257512
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Nigelb said:

    Unexplained mass elephant dying:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53257512

    Christ. What a miserable era this is
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    Big G, I think we can trust the Doc on this one.
    I do not accept that the private sector involvement across the UK did not contribute to preventing the NHS being overwhelmed
    It didn't. Private hospital capacity was barely used.
    We certainly paid for it though. £400m/month and counting.

    I can understand where the Treasury are coming from when they look at that deal and say it's terrible value for money. Maybe that's the price you pay for underinvestment and trying to be efficient/have low spare capacity.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What's the explanation for why we don't know the figure how many people we've tested for like the last month?

    The contract with the companies doing testing doesn't seem to include communicating the results to anyone.
    Beyond f*ing words. What an utter shambles this lot are proving to be.

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1278259630628618241
    I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.

    What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
    I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
    Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
    Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.

    You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
    Big G, I think we can trust the Doc on this one.
    I do not accept that the private sector involvement across the UK did not contribute to preventing the NHS being overwhelmed
    It didn't. Private hospital capacity was barely used.
    I have to comment that looking at this argument from afar, the opinion of a Hospital doctor in Leicester has got to be the more informed one.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    LadyG said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unexplained mass elephant dying:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53257512

    Christ. What a miserable era this is
    Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia.
    When I read that I thought Daily Mash.
    Sadly not.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    dixiedean said:

    LadyG said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unexplained mass elephant dying:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53257512

    Christ. What a miserable era this is
    Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia.
    When I read that I thought Daily Mash.
    Sadly not.
    2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.

    And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Anabobazina said:

    another_richard said:

    Benpointer said:

    another_richard said:

    rottenborough said:

    I want the public inquiry to look into exactly whose idea it was to open the pubs for the first time in months on a Saturday.

    Cummings claims he loves superforecasting.

    Here's a forecast. It is going to be ruinous mayhem.

    In a few places but that was always going to be the case when the pubs opened.
    Yebbut... why start on a Saturday?!
    Why should those on furlough or 'working' from home get the first opportunity ?

    Let people make their own choices and accept responsibility for it.

    Though nobody I work with has any intention of going anywhere near a pub for at least a week afterwards.
    I’m off to the pub on Saturday.
    Have fun but take care. :smiley:
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1278417360202928131?s=20
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    eristdoof said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    I think it was HYUFD pointed out the flaw with these charts, last time they were posted here.
    It is difficult to know what is really going on because we don' know the totals. A realistic scenario for these graphs is that the blue states start off with lots os cases and the red states not so many. Ten the number of new cases in the blue states drops, but stays constant in the red states. You would exactly this graph.
    A similar plrot showing total numbers not proportions would be far more informative.
    The plot here is of per capita cases. Looks interesting to me.

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2020/06/28/covid-19-red-states-blue-states-redux/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    LadyG said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unexplained mass elephant dying:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53257512

    Christ. What a miserable era this is
    Much the same I guess. We just have the dis-benefit of knowing. (I'd not change that)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    LostPassword said:

    eristdoof said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    I think it was HYUFD pointed out the flaw with these charts, last time they were posted here.
    It is difficult to know what is really going on because we don' know the totals. A realistic scenario for these graphs is that the blue states start off with lots os cases and the red states not so many. Ten the number of new cases in the blue states drops, but stays constant in the red states. You would exactly this graph.
    A similar plrot showing total numbers not proportions would be far more informative.
    The plot here is of per capita cases. Looks interesting to me.

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2020/06/28/covid-19-red-states-blue-states-redux/
    But you have to control for the huge increase in testing done between the start and end of that plot... somehow.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Omnium said:

    LadyG said:

    Nigelb said:

    Unexplained mass elephant dying:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53257512

    Christ. What a miserable era this is
    Much the same I guess. We just have the dis-benefit of knowing. (I'd not change that)
    Coronavirus is not normal. A 20% fall in GDP in a month is not normal.

    This is abnormally BAD
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    At what point do these lockdowns prove that the Government has conclusively failed and we have come out too early?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Compare and contrast.

    The Metro's headline:

    Local lockdowns ‘just days away for 36 coronavirus hotspots in UK’

    to the first line of the story:

    Local lockdowns could be just days away for 36 areas earmarked as ‘coronavirus hotspots’, it has been reported.

    Is 'could' the most important word in the English language ?

    In reality the chance of further lockdowns in the next few days is almost zero and the chance that 36 areas having lockdowns in the next few days is zero.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    LadyG said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1278417360202928131?s=20

    Indeed, the main movement LD to Labour since the GE
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    At what point do these lockdowns prove that the Government has conclusively failed and we have come out too early?

    There is one lockdown.

    Meanwhile the rate of infection continues to fall.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    At what point do these lockdowns prove that the Government has conclusively failed and we have come out too early?

    By that logic Germany has failed, as they've had to institute similar restrictions.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,434
    RobD said:

    LostPassword said:

    eristdoof said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    I think it was HYUFD pointed out the flaw with these charts, last time they were posted here.
    It is difficult to know what is really going on because we don' know the totals. A realistic scenario for these graphs is that the blue states start off with lots os cases and the red states not so many. Ten the number of new cases in the blue states drops, but stays constant in the red states. You would exactly this graph.
    A similar plrot showing total numbers not proportions would be far more informative.
    The plot here is of per capita cases. Looks interesting to me.

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2020/06/28/covid-19-red-states-blue-states-redux/
    But you have to control for the huge increase in testing done between the start and end of that plot... somehow.
    That's true. The first peak would almost certainly be much higher with the current rate of testing. That means that the decline in case numbers in blue states is all the more impressive - and likely means that there was a decrease in case numbers initially in the red states too.

    But I don't think there's a major difference in test availability between red and blue states now - so the difference between the two lines at the same point in time is relevant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    "Leicester lockdown: Dismay of the ‘lepers’ barred from reopened tourist sites"

    (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/leicester-lockdown-dismay-of-the-lepers-barred-from-reopened-tourist-sites-fkswvg2tx
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    edited July 2020
    This is the paper/article behind the story I noted earlier today.
    It’s a bit thin, but it does suggest that school reopening is not risk free, as the PM keeps insisting.

    Culture-Competent SARS-CoV-2 in Nasopharynx of Symptomatic Neonates, Children, and Adolescents
    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-2403_article
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,599
    edited July 2020
    Updated Electoral Calculus polling average prediction: Con 334, Lab 229, LD 6, SNP 58.

    Tory maj down from 54 to 18. 26 Lab gains from Con compared to GE2019.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    LostPassword said:

    RobD said:

    LostPassword said:

    eristdoof said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Selected highlights from this Twitter thread

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278425198824493056
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426585910185987
    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1278426759751520256

    Trump and the GOP are surely screwed?

    Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
    I think it was HYUFD pointed out the flaw with these charts, last time they were posted here.
    It is difficult to know what is really going on because we don' know the totals. A realistic scenario for these graphs is that the blue states start off with lots os cases and the red states not so many. Ten the number of new cases in the blue states drops, but stays constant in the red states. You would exactly this graph.
    A similar plrot showing total numbers not proportions would be far more informative.
    The plot here is of per capita cases. Looks interesting to me.

    https://tamino.wordpress.com/2020/06/28/covid-19-red-states-blue-states-redux/
    But you have to control for the huge increase in testing done between the start and end of that plot... somehow.
    That's true. The first peak would almost certainly be much higher with the current rate of testing. That means that the decline in case numbers in blue states is all the more impressive - and likely means that there was a decrease in case numbers initially in the red states too.

    But I don't think there's a major difference in test availability between red and blue states now - so the difference between the two lines at the same point in time is relevant.
    Yeah, the current difference driven by the fact it didn't start everywhere at the same time.
This discussion has been closed.