At what point do these lockdowns prove that the Government has conclusively failed and we have come out too early?
It would have to be at some point in the future when there were more than one and so you could use the plural.
If local lockdowns are not sufficient to prevent an overall rise in the incidence of the virus within the UK then it will point to a failure of policy - but if they are sufficient to keep the overall incidence of the virus low, and decreasing, then why would you have more lockdown that wasn't required?
Now we know that if you have COVID symptoms and you request a test, this will be done under Pillar 2 of the testing regime. If you test positive for COVID this could lead to your community being put under a local lockdown. Will this discourage some people from coming forwards to be tested?
Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia. When I read that I thought Daily Mash. Sadly not.
2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.
And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
And with many things - like plagues of locusts - it's not like it's going to get any better once 2020 is over and done with. Last week I've read an article pointing out quite elaborately that the many locust plagues of the recent past can only be explained convincingly by changing climate patterns. And these are unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future.
Now we know that if you have COVID symptoms and you request a test, this will be done under Pillar 2 of the testing regime. If you test positive for COVID this could lead to your community being put under a local lockdown. Will this discourage some people from coming forwards to be tested?
Depends, do you hate your community enough for it to run rampant?
The England cricket squad is practising for their series against the West Indies by playing a 3 day match against each other because there wasn't an alternative.
Isn’t that just saying NYC got it bad early and now everywhere is catching up?
I think it was HYUFD pointed out the flaw with these charts, last time they were posted here. It is difficult to know what is really going on because we don' know the totals. A realistic scenario for these graphs is that the blue states start off with lots os cases and the red states not so many. Ten the number of new cases in the blue states drops, but stays constant in the red states. You would exactly this graph. A similar plrot showing total numbers not proportions would be far more informative.
The plot here is of per capita cases. Looks interesting to me.
Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia. When I read that I thought Daily Mash. Sadly not.
2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.
And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
Do you have any memory of the 1968/69 flu epidemic? (It killed about 80,000 people in the UK, which would be around 100,000 today taking population increase into account).
Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia. When I read that I thought Daily Mash. Sadly not.
2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.
And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
And with many things - like plagues of locusts - it's not like it's going to get any better once 2020 is over and done with. Last week I've read an article pointing out quite elaborately that the many locust plagues of the recent past can only be explained convincingly by changing climate patterns. And these are unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future.
"The BBC has told its presenters and guests not to wear Black Lives Matter badges as the campaign was accused of “hijacking” George Floyd’s death for political reasons.
Bosses at the corporation have decided not to allow “visual symbols of support” for Black Lives Matter to be worn on screen, senior sources told The Telegraph.
It comes as a number of high-profile organisations were forced to backtrack on their support for the Black Lives Matter movement as its UK arm publicly criticised Israel and called on the British government to “defund the police”."
Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia. When I read that I thought Daily Mash. Sadly not.
2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.
And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
Do you have any memory of the 1968/69 flu epidemic? (It killed about 80,000 people in the UK, which would be around 100,000 today taking population increase into account).
But that WAS flu. Just a really bad flu year
As we now know. Covid-19 is not the flu. It's more infectious, more deadly, and has creepy new characteristics, with long term consequences. There is no vaccine, no one has immunity, the only remedy is economy-ruining lockdowns, unless you react very very quickly and deftly, and even then that might not work long term.
I agree that the internet amplifies disaster, but in this case it really is disaster, to start with
Can imagine Corbyn telling Starmer "We use words like "black," "lives," "matter." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line."
Looking at the US figures, there's been a big increase in cases recently, but not in deaths. Maybe an indication it's mainly younger people being affected.
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
"The BBC has told its presenters and guests not to wear Black Lives Matter badges as the campaign was accused of “hijacking” George Floyd’s death for political reasons.
Bosses at the corporation have decided not to allow “visual symbols of support” for Black Lives Matter to be worn on screen, senior sources told The Telegraph.
It comes as a number of high-profile organisations were forced to backtrack on their support for the Black Lives Matter movement as its UK arm publicly criticised Israel and called on the British government to “defund the police”."
Looking at the US figures, there's been a big increase in cases recently, but not in deaths. Maybe an indication it's mainly younger people being affected.
BoJo = Bozo When you elect a clown to lead, you make your country a bad joke.
Aside from Brexit & etc., would appear to Americans that Britons put a music hall act into No 10 Downing St, because they were copying us in installing Trumpsky's 3-ring circus as 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Now imitation IS the sincerest form of flattery. BUT somewhow I do NOT feel flattered.
Looking at the US figures, there's been a big increase in cases recently, but not in deaths. Maybe an indication it's mainly younger people being affected.
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Looking at the US figures, there's been a big increase in cases recently, but not in deaths. Maybe an indication it's mainly younger people being affected.
It's a younger cohort getting infected, so deaths will really lag. But it is unfortunately quite likely that the US daily death toll will eventually rise again
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Yes, I did my covid test at home last week
I've heard it is really painful - a big spike up your nose. Is it? Or did you do the antibody blood test?
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Yes, I did my covid test at home last week
I've heard it is really painful - a big spike up your nose. Is it? Or did you do the antibody blood test?
It is not comfortable but only lasts about 10 seconds for each nostril and tonsil, I did it in the bathroom before 8am
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Yes, I did my covid test at home last week
I've heard it is really painful - a big spike up your nose. Is it? Or did you do the antibody blood test?
It is not comfortable but only lasts about 10 seconds for each nostril and tonsil, I did it in the bathroom before 8am
Ta, What happens then? Do you post it off? How long before a result?
Looking at the US figures, there's been a big increase in cases recently, but not in deaths. Maybe an indication it's mainly younger people being affected.
Maybe. But then again it may be an indication for the fact that people don't die of the disease that quickly, but instead take their time to do so.
I think we should be seeing an uptick in the deaths soon if this is the case. It started rising again about two weeks ago.
My guess is that among the people hit earliest the recovery rate will be higher and the time from infection to exitus will be longer than for the latecomers, once the health system is overwhelmed, I'd expect these measurements to deteriorate.
Looking at the US figures, there's been a big increase in cases recently, but not in deaths. Maybe an indication it's mainly younger people being affected.
Maybe. But then again it may be an indication for the fact that people don't die of the disease that quickly, but instead take their time to do so.
I think we should be seeing an uptick in the deaths soon if this is the case. It started rising again about two weeks ago.
My guess is that among the people hit earliest the recovery rate will be higher and the time from infection to exitus will be longer than for the latecomers, once the health system is overwhelmed, I'd expect these measures to deteriorate.
You expect the US health system to be overwhelmed? That's quite pessimistic! This is the richest country on earth. In the end the Fed can pour resources into the problem
I can easily see health systems being swamped in Latin America, India, Africa. Sadly
Is it just me or does this headline come across as implying a touch of cynicism over the decision by the government, as if it couldn't possibly just be the right thing to do?
"Hong Kong: What is behind the UK's citizenship offer? Laura Kuenssberg"
Is it just me or does this headline come across as implying a touch of cynicism over the decision by the government, as if it couldn't possibly just be the right thing to do?
"Hong Kong: What is behind the UK's citizenship offer? Laura Kuenssberg"
Looking at the US figures, there's been a big increase in cases recently, but not in deaths. Maybe an indication it's mainly younger people being affected.
Maybe. But then again it may be an indication for the fact that people don't die of the disease that quickly, but instead take their time to do so.
I think we should be seeing an uptick in the deaths soon if this is the case. It started rising again about two weeks ago.
My guess is that among the people hit earliest the recovery rate will be higher and the time from infection to exitus will be longer than for the latecomers, once the health system is overwhelmed, I'd expect these measures to deteriorate.
You expect the US health system to be overwhelmed? That's quite pessimistic! This is the richest country on earth. In the end the Fed can pour resources into the problem
I can easily see health systems being swamped in Latin America, India, Africa. Sadly
Not everywhere. But you certainly have seen what happened in NY, one of the world's most eminent cities. What use is capacity in Boston or Chicago when people are stacked on top of each other in Houston, Miami or Phoenix?
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Yes, I did my covid test at home last week
I've heard it is really painful - a big spike up your nose. Is it? Or did you do the antibody blood test?
It is not comfortable but only lasts about 10 seconds for each nostril and tonsil, I did it in the bathroom before 8am
Ta, What happens then? Do you post it off? How long before a result?
You put it in a tube and box and a courier picks it up, then wait for the result
The French haven't tested all that much. One consequence is a low number of asymptomatic and less symptomatic cases. That will be reflected in case fatality rates.
Looking at the US figures, there's been a big increase in cases recently, but not in deaths. Maybe an indication it's mainly younger people being affected.
Maybe. But then again it may be an indication for the fact that people don't die of the disease that quickly, but instead take their time to do so.
I think we should be seeing an uptick in the deaths soon if this is the case. It started rising again about two weeks ago.
My guess is that among the people hit earliest the recovery rate will be higher and the time from infection to exitus will be longer than for the latecomers, once the health system is overwhelmed, I'd expect these measures to deteriorate.
You expect the US health system to be overwhelmed? That's quite pessimistic! This is the richest country on earth. In the end the Fed can pour resources into the problem
I can easily see health systems being swamped in Latin America, India, Africa. Sadly
Not everywhere. But you certainly have seen what happened in NY, one of the world's most eminent cities. What use is capacity in Boston or Chicago when people are stacked on top of each other in Houston, Miami or Phoenix?
I take your point, but I think, in the end, the USG would start flying patients around the country, as the French did when they were nearly swamped
I fear for countries without the ability to do that.
This is a nice bit of data. Worrying signs from South Africa and Nigeria
Air con may be a factor in spreading. The virus likes cool moist surfaces.
I am convinced aircon is a vector
It doesn't even have to be doing anything positive to spread the virus - its problem may be simply that it makes it desirable to be inside rather than outside.
Is it just me or does this headline come across as implying a touch of cynicism over the decision by the government, as if it couldn't possibly just be the right thing to do?
"Hong Kong: What is behind the UK's citizenship offer? Laura Kuenssberg"
Yeah, lots of Nigerians are really fat. Same goes for Gulf Arabs, who also have a massive Covid problem
I wonder if East Asia's ability to skirt covid-19 nightmares is just because they are thinner? Vietnam has one of the lowest obesity levels in the world, they crushed the virus overnight
Yeah, lots of Nigerians are really fat. Same goes for Gulf Arabs, who also have a massive Covid problem
I wonder if East Asia's ability to skirt covid-19 nightmares is just because they are thinner? Vietnam has one of the lowest obesity levels in the world, they crushed the virus overnight
They "crushed the virus overnight" by suppressing transmission. Obesity may well be one of several factors impacting the outcome once you've caught the disease. It doesn't really impact the infectiousness.
Yeah, lots of Nigerians are really fat. Same goes for Gulf Arabs, who also have a massive Covid problem
I wonder if East Asia's ability to skirt covid-19 nightmares is just because they are thinner? Vietnam has one of the lowest obesity levels in the world, they crushed the virus overnight
They "crushed the virus overnight" by suppressing transmission. Obesity may well be one of several factors impacting the outcome once you've caught the disease. It doesn't really impact the infectiousness.
It might do. We just don't know.
Non-obese people might suffer less severe or asymptomatic disease. or their immune systems might be better at fighting it off outright, reducing R0
The lack of obesity in Vietnam is really striking. I've been there several times, last time a couple of years ago. The food is superb, and incredibly healthy - lots of greens, fish, non-processed carbs. It's a poor country still, yet they have avoided the Covid fate of comparable countries in Latin America, South Asia, or, probably, Africa
I'd be very surprised if Mark Kelly doesn't meaningfully outpoll Biden in Arizona. My wild guess (based on being in business in Arizona) is that he'll nab the Senate seat, but Trump will beat out Biden.
That being said, if CV-19 continue to worsen in AZ, then Trump could be in trouble there too.
I'd be very surprised if Mark Kelly doesn't meaningfully outpoll Biden in Arizona. My wild guess (based on being in business in Arizona) is that he'll nab the Senate seat, but Trump will beat out Biden.
That being said, if CV-19 continue to worsen in AZ, then Trump could be in trouble there too.
What are your thoughts on the Kentucky senate race? To me Mcgrath seems a little over hyped as a split ticket is necessary. However with rising unemployment (35%+), potential COVID uptick, heinously unpopular incumbent could it be a dream night for the Dems?
It looks like Michigan and Arizona are going to Biden, which means Trump will have to concentrate his efforts in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, (as well as possibly Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine).
Edit: just seen the poll below putting Trump ahead in Arizona.
Yeah, lots of Nigerians are really fat. Same goes for Gulf Arabs, who also have a massive Covid problem
I wonder if East Asia's ability to skirt covid-19 nightmares is just because they are thinner? Vietnam has one of the lowest obesity levels in the world, they crushed the virus overnight
They "crushed the virus overnight" by suppressing transmission. Obesity may well be one of several factors impacting the outcome once you've caught the disease. It doesn't really impact the infectiousness.
It might do. We just don't know.
Non-obese people might suffer less severe or asymptomatic disease. or their immune systems might be better at fighting it off outright, reducing R0
The lack of obesity in Vietnam is really striking. I've been there several times, last time a couple of years ago. The food is superb, and incredibly healthy - lots of greens, fish, non-processed carbs. It's a poor country still, yet they have avoided the Covid fate of comparable countries in Latin America, South Asia, or, probably, Africa
Whatever it was that worked in their favour, there can be no doubt that, karmically, they deserved to catch a break, after everything they had to suffer from the Chinese, the French, the Japanese, the French again and finally the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. Well done, Vietnam. Well done, karma.
I'd be very surprised if Mark Kelly doesn't meaningfully outpoll Biden in Arizona. My wild guess (based on being in business in Arizona) is that he'll nab the Senate seat, but Trump will beat out Biden.
That being said, if CV-19 continue to worsen in AZ, then Trump could be in trouble there too.
What are your thoughts on the Kentucky senate race? To me Mcgrath seems a little over hyped as a split ticket is necessary. However with rising unemployment (35%+), potential COVID uptick, heinously unpopular incumbent could it be a dream night for the Dems?
I don't see any value at 10/3.
I would be surprised if McConnell if lost. But I guess this is where the Democrats are lucky. The Republicans in Kentucky will need to spend dollars defending McConnell, and that's dollars that would otherwise be used to support Trump is Wisconsin.
It looks like Michigan and Arizona are going to Biden, which means Trump will have to concentrate his efforts in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, (as well as possibly Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine).
Edit: just seen the poll below putting Trump ahead in Arizona.
My guess is that Wisconsin and Michigan are gone for Trump. That takes the Dems to 258.
I'm not convinced that Minnesota is in play because, in 2018, that was the state that swung most heavily to the Dems. That does not suggest that it is trending Republican.
Maine and New Hampshire are tough calls too.
I think if I were to bet on a surprise Republican pickup this time around, it would be Virginia.
If I am right that WI and MI are lost to Trump, that leaves the Dems needing 12 electoral college votes to pick up.
Virtually all the housing data that I see come from biased sources, usually trying to ramp sales (amazing opportunities etc.). I'm advising a friend on house purchase in Oxfordshire and am genuinely unsure what to suggest is likely - are we expecting a continued slide in prices, or a bounce back, or what?
The answer is no one really has a clue
Interest rates will be lower for longer removing a point of pressure
But lots of people may be unemployed
Many people may be nervous to take on a mortgage reducing demand
While lots of people will want a house with a garden increasing demand
Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia. When I read that I thought Daily Mash. Sadly not.
2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.
And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
Do you have any memory of the 1968/69 flu epidemic? (It killed about 80,000 people in the UK, which would be around 100,000 today taking population increase into account).
I discussed that with my mother last weekend. She was 20 at the time.
Absolutely no memory. The government did nothing - it was just one of those things that happened. No lockdown or anything
It looks like Michigan and Arizona are going to Biden, which means Trump will have to concentrate his efforts in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, (as well as possibly Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine).
Edit: just seen the poll below putting Trump ahead in Arizona.
My guess is that Wisconsin and Michigan are gone for Trump. That takes the Dems to 258.
I'm not convinced that Minnesota is in play because, in 2018, that was the state that swung most heavily to the Dems. That does not suggest that it is trending Republican.
Maine and New Hampshire are tough calls too.
I think if I were to bet on a surprise Republican pickup this time around, it would be Virginia.
If I am right that WI and MI are lost to Trump, that leaves the Dems needing 12 electoral college votes to pick up.
If anything, Robert, VA continues to trend Dem, not GOP. No indication that the GOP have anything going for them in the DC region at all. If the military are wobbly on Trump, then Tidewater will be gone to them too. No population left for Trump to overhaul the Dems then.
Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia. When I read that I thought Daily Mash. Sadly not.
2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.
And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
Do you have any memory of the 1968/69 flu epidemic? (It killed about 80,000 people in the UK, which would be around 100,000 today taking population increase into account).
I discussed that with my mother last weekend. She was 20 at the time.
Absolutely no memory. The government did nothing - it was just one of those things that happened. No lockdown or anything
I remember getting it. Certainly no lockdown, but if you got it, you were going nowhere but bed until you recovered.
"Police have pledged to stop and fine drivers trying to flee Leicester for drinking or shopping after the city was put under a fresh lockdown following a spike in Covid-19 cases in the city.
Officers will carry out spot checks on vehicles leaving locked-down Leicester and could turn them around if their journey is not essential, it was revealed today, as confusion reigned because some areas in the city limits are in lockdown while neighbours are not.
Leicestershire Police is also threatening £100 fines amid growing concerns that residents may flee for the county's open pubs, hair salons or other attractions while patrols will also break up mass gatherings in the city after they were partially blamed for a spike in coronavirus cases in June."
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Yes, I did my covid test at home last week
I've heard it is really painful - a big spike up your nose. Is it? Or did you do the antibody blood test?
It’s not unless you do in wrong (which usually means pushing too hard, and/or upwards rather than back). Toughest thing for some is suppressing the vomit reflex as you tickle your tonsils.
It looks like Michigan and Arizona are going to Biden, which means Trump will have to concentrate his efforts in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, (as well as possibly Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine).
Edit: just seen the poll below putting Trump ahead in Arizona.
My guess is that Wisconsin and Michigan are gone for Trump. That takes the Dems to 258.
I'm not convinced that Minnesota is in play because, in 2018, that was the state that swung most heavily to the Dems. That does not suggest that it is trending Republican.
Maine and New Hampshire are tough calls too.
I think if I were to bet on a surprise Republican pickup this time around, it would be Virginia.
If I am right that WI and MI are lost to Trump, that leaves the Dems needing 12 electoral college votes to pick up.
If anything, Robert, VA continues to trend Dem, not GOP. No indication that the GOP have anything going for them in the DC region at all. If the military are wobbly on Trump, then Tidewater will be gone to them too. No population left for Trump to overhaul the Dems then.
On the Morning Consult state-level approval polls, Trump is doing best in Pennsylvania (-1) and Virginia (-5), while he's at -10 in both Wisconsin and Michigan. These are from Feb, so he's probably got a little worse since then. Nevertheless, Trump is doing better in Democratic Virginia than in Republican Wisconsin or Michigan.
I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.
What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.
You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
Big G, I think we can trust the Doc on this one.
I completely disagree.
The private hospitals were part of the capacity building strategy.
To say “Ner ner, we did all the work, we’re the heroes and you’re just the “private sector” I” is profoundly unhelpful
They are also, at least down here, under contract to the NHS until next Monday, so what they have or haven't done since March has been entirely the decision of the NHS,
I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.
What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.
You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
Big G, I think we can trust the Doc on this one.
I do not accept that the private sector involvement across the UK did not contribute to preventing the NHS being overwhelmed
It didn't. Private hospital capacity was barely used.
We certainly paid for it though. £400m/month and counting.
I can understand where the Treasury are coming from when they look at that deal and say it's terrible value for money. Maybe that's the price you pay for underinvestment and trying to be efficient/have low spare capacity.
It is beginning to be used, now that we are in the recovery phase. Last week our Spire cleared the colonoscopy backlog for example. It was hardly used in the main peak was my point.
I doubt Boris or Hancock have drawn up the contracts themselves.
What we are seeing is the general unfitness for purpose of the alphabet soup.
I don't think PHE would negotiate a contract that kept themselves in the dark! It is the usual private sector troughers.
Without the private sector covid would have overwhelmed the NHS and much more
Nah, the private hospitals like the Nightingales have been hardly used. The real work was done by Acute Hospital Trusts.
You are blinkered. The private sector involvement has been huge and I am surprised that you cannot accept that
Big G, I think we can trust the Doc on this one.
I completely disagree.
The private hospitals were part of the capacity building strategy.
To say “Ner ner, we did all the work, we’re the heroes and you’re just the “private sector” I” is profoundly unhelpful
They are also, at least down here, under contract to the NHS until next Monday, so what they have or haven't done since March has been entirely the decision of the NHS,
Though the NHS has been operating under central "Command and Control" rather than local NHS.
That's actually a great line. There must be a few Biden-waverers who will think "I want a president who reads his daily briefings". It reminds people of the bounty scandal without getting into it. And it reminds people of what an incredibly low bar there is for anyone to be a better president than Trump.
"Police have pledged to stop and fine drivers trying to flee Leicester for drinking or shopping after the city was put under a fresh lockdown following a spike in Covid-19 cases in the city.
Officers will carry out spot checks on vehicles leaving locked-down Leicester and could turn them around if their journey is not essential, it was revealed today, as confusion reigned because some areas in the city limits are in lockdown while neighbours are not.
Leicestershire Police is also threatening £100 fines amid growing concerns that residents may flee for the county's open pubs, hair salons or other attractions while patrols will also break up mass gatherings in the city after they were partially blamed for a spike in coronavirus cases in June."
The White Horse in Scraptoft will be busy. It is a large Weatherspoons just outside the boundary, and easy walking distance from the Thurnby Lodge Estate. There may be other similar pubs, but I don't think shops will be very busy outside, and hairdressers need booking weeks ahead. All the main Leicestershire shopping areas are included in the lockdown.
I may report from my local pub on Saturday, but I suspect the landlord won't be be serving non regulars.He is already pulling his hair out over trying to make the regulations work.
That's actually a great line. There must be a few Biden-waverers who will think "I want a president who reads his daily briefings". It reminds people of the bounty scandal without getting into it. And it reminds people of what an incredibly low bar there is for anyone to be a better president than Trump.
"A harbour no more China’s draconian security law for Hong Kong buries one country, two systems The regime in Beijing would rather be feared than admired"
Re:discussion about pubs opening on a Saturday earlier. I think some people are overlooking that pubs will open when pubs will open. The biggest chain of pubs in my part of the world (Young’s) will not be opening until Monday 20th July.
I also think people are not factoring in that I imagine most pubs will not be allowing a free for all (and it will not be in their interests to do so). I expect many/most to be imposing limits on numbers, possibly limits on consumption, maybe insisting on seating only etc etc. Responsible pub owners will be fully conscious of the damage images of drunken revelry would cause them and will want to avoid it. Irresponsible ones will be running grave risks of being immediately shut down again.
"A harbour no more China’s draconian security law for Hong Kong buries one country, two systems The regime in Beijing would rather be feared than admired"
Hong Kong had a very large share of Chinas GDP in 1997, but much less significant now.
Does anyone have figures on how many of the are British Overseas passport holders? And the age range? I would have thought that they would be the older population, while the young protestors are mostly born after 1997.
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Yes, I did my covid test at home last week
I've heard it is really painful - a big spike up your nose. Is it? Or did you do the antibody blood test?
Something tells me that, remarkably for a lady, you’ve had swabs in more painful places.
Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia. When I read that I thought Daily Mash. Sadly not.
2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.
And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
Do you have any memory of the 1968/69 flu epidemic? (It killed about 80,000 people in the UK, which would be around 100,000 today taking population increase into account).
I discussed that with my mother last weekend. She was 20 at the time.
Absolutely no memory. The government did nothing - it was just one of those things that happened. No lockdown or anything
I misread this comment at first. I was startled to learn Charles’ mother was 20 last weekend.
Re:discussion about pubs opening on a Saturday earlier. I think some people are overlooking that pubs will open when pubs will open. The biggest chain of pubs in my part of the world (Young’s) will not be opening until Monday 20th July.
I also think people are not factoring in that I imagine most pubs will not be allowing a free for all (and it will not be in their interests to do so). I expect many/most to be imposing limits on numbers, possibly limits on consumption, maybe insisting on seating only etc etc. Responsible pub owners will be fully conscious of the damage images of drunken revelry would cause them and will want to avoid it. Irresponsible ones will be running grave risks of being immediately shut down again.
I don't expect New Year's Eve type crowds, though probably somewhere in the country will be in the news.
Transmission in Leicester seems to be at workplaces and homes, not pubs or shops, so I wouldn't expect a lot of difference.
The problem is that when your only tool is a lockdown hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
"Police have pledged to stop and fine drivers trying to flee Leicester for drinking or shopping after the city was put under a fresh lockdown following a spike in Covid-19 cases in the city.
Officers will carry out spot checks on vehicles leaving locked-down Leicester and could turn them around if their journey is not essential, it was revealed today, as confusion reigned because some areas in the city limits are in lockdown while neighbours are not.
Leicestershire Police is also threatening £100 fines amid growing concerns that residents may flee for the county's open pubs, hair salons or other attractions while patrols will also break up mass gatherings in the city after they were partially blamed for a spike in coronavirus cases in June."
It was after all why the Italians quickly abandoned their local:lockdown in Lombardy, after all the footage of Italians fleeing the region for family across the country. At the time the conclusion was that such measures were counterproductive and italy quickly locked down everywhere.
A measure of how global and rampant this disease is now. The UK recorded 830 new cases today, not a small number.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
That's 830 from over 200k tests.
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
A good point. In terms of tests per million, the UK is now the BEST performing large nation in the world, just ahead of Russia (and also Singapore - we are testing more than Singapore!). We are way ahead of Germany.
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Yes, I did my covid test at home last week
I've heard it is really painful - a big spike up your nose. Is it? Or did you do the antibody blood test?
Something tells me that, remarkably for a lady, you’ve had swabs in more painful places.
Indeed. A plague of locusts has ravaged the crops of Sardinia. When I read that I thought Daily Mash. Sadly not.
2020 is by far the most depressing year of my life, to date, and I was born in the mid 1960s.
And we are only half way through. Indeed, exactly half way through
Do you have any memory of the 1968/69 flu epidemic? (It killed about 80,000 people in the UK, which would be around 100,000 today taking population increase into account).
I discussed that with my mother last weekend. She was 20 at the time.
Absolutely no memory. The government did nothing - it was just one of those things that happened. No lockdown or anything
I misread this comment at first. I was startled to learn Charles’ mother was 20 last weekend.
Then I engaged my brain.
I was running a busy pharmacy in 1968/9, and TBH, I really don't recall anything disastrous either. My 'last' grandparent died that winter, but as she was 83 and had been ill for a while that wasn't too surprising. However, on reflection she was about a year older than I am now, so..... I've a better memory of 1957, which was bad, too. But in neither case were there any lockdowns or similar interventions.
That's actually a great line. There must be a few Biden-waverers who will think "I want a president who reads his daily briefings". It reminds people of the bounty scandal without getting into it. And it reminds people of what an incredibly low bar there is for anyone to be a better president than Trump.
"A harbour no more China’s draconian security law for Hong Kong buries one country, two systems The regime in Beijing would rather be feared than admired"
Hong Kong had a very large share of Chinas GDP in 1997, but much less significant now.
Does anyone have figures on how many of the are British Overseas passport holders? And the age range? I would have thought that they would be the older population, while the young protestors are mostly born after 1997.
It'd about half. 3 million or so of Hong Kong's 7 million or so.
You've got to remember there was lots of immigration from the mainland by Chinese proper after 1997.
"A harbour no more China’s draconian security law for Hong Kong buries one country, two systems The regime in Beijing would rather be feared than admired"
Hong Kong had a very large share of Chinas GDP in 1997, but much less significant now.
Does anyone have figures on how many of the are British Overseas passport holders? And the age range? I would have thought that they would be the older population, while the young protestors are mostly born after 1997.
It'd about half. 3 million or so of Hong Kong's 7 million or so.
You've got to remember there was lots of immigration from the mainland by Chinese proper after 1997.
According to R4 yesterday the offer potentially extends to families.
Re:discussion about pubs opening on a Saturday earlier. I think some people are overlooking that pubs will open when pubs will open. The biggest chain of pubs in my part of the world (Young’s) will not be opening until Monday 20th July.
I also think people are not factoring in that I imagine most pubs will not be allowing a free for all (and it will not be in their interests to do so). I expect many/most to be imposing limits on numbers, possibly limits on consumption, maybe insisting on seating only etc etc. Responsible pub owners will be fully conscious of the damage images of drunken revelry would cause them and will want to avoid it. Irresponsible ones will be running grave risks of being immediately shut down again.
I don't expect New Year's Eve type crowds, though probably somewhere in the country will be in the news.
Transmission in Leicester seems to be at workplaces and homes, not pubs or shops, so I wouldn't expect a lot of difference.
The problem is that when your only tool is a lockdown hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
Indeed. It's in meat factories and clothing factories etc. but these dipsticks don't seem to understand that.
We can't afford a second lockdown. The economy is already dying.
That's actually a great line. There must be a few Biden-waverers who will think "I want a president who reads his daily briefings". It reminds people of the bounty scandal without getting into it. And it reminds people of what an incredibly low bar there is for anyone to be a better president than Trump.
Re:discussion about pubs opening on a Saturday earlier. I think some people are overlooking that pubs will open when pubs will open. The biggest chain of pubs in my part of the world (Young’s) will not be opening until Monday 20th July.
I also think people are not factoring in that I imagine most pubs will not be allowing a free for all (and it will not be in their interests to do so). I expect many/most to be imposing limits on numbers, possibly limits on consumption, maybe insisting on seating only etc etc. Responsible pub owners will be fully conscious of the damage images of drunken revelry would cause them and will want to avoid it. Irresponsible ones will be running grave risks of being immediately shut down again.
I don't expect New Year's Eve type crowds, though probably somewhere in the country will be in the news.
Transmission in Leicester seems to be at workplaces and homes, not pubs or shops, so I wouldn't expect a lot of difference.
The problem is that when your only tool is a lockdown hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
Indeed. It's in meat factories and clothing factories etc. but these dipsticks don't seem to understand that.
We can't afford a second lockdown. The economy is already dying.
I expect many pubs on Saturday will be like meat factories.
Haven’t we known since 2016 (at least) that Trump gets all his foreign intelligence on what other countries are doing from the leaders of said countries? Be it Russia, North Korea, Saudi Arabia... (perhaps China not so much, perhaps he doesn’t talk to them?)
Re:discussion about pubs opening on a Saturday earlier. I think some people are overlooking that pubs will open when pubs will open. The biggest chain of pubs in my part of the world (Young’s) will not be opening until Monday 20th July.
I also think people are not factoring in that I imagine most pubs will not be allowing a free for all (and it will not be in their interests to do so). I expect many/most to be imposing limits on numbers, possibly limits on consumption, maybe insisting on seating only etc etc. Responsible pub owners will be fully conscious of the damage images of drunken revelry would cause them and will want to avoid it. Irresponsible ones will be running grave risks of being immediately shut down again.
I don't expect New Year's Eve type crowds, though probably somewhere in the country will be in the news.
Transmission in Leicester seems to be at workplaces and homes, not pubs or shops, so I wouldn't expect a lot of difference.
The problem is that when your only tool is a lockdown hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
Indeed. It's in meat factories and clothing factories etc. but these dipsticks don't seem to understand that.
We can't afford a second lockdown. The economy is already dying.
Look on the bright side; at least Foxy’s colonoscopy backlog has now been cleared.
Re:discussion about pubs opening on a Saturday earlier. I think some people are overlooking that pubs will open when pubs will open. The biggest chain of pubs in my part of the world (Young’s) will not be opening until Monday 20th July.
I also think people are not factoring in that I imagine most pubs will not be allowing a free for all (and it will not be in their interests to do so). I expect many/most to be imposing limits on numbers, possibly limits on consumption, maybe insisting on seating only etc etc. Responsible pub owners will be fully conscious of the damage images of drunken revelry would cause them and will want to avoid it. Irresponsible ones will be running grave risks of being immediately shut down again.
I don't expect New Year's Eve type crowds, though probably somewhere in the country will be in the news.
Transmission in Leicester seems to be at workplaces and homes, not pubs or shops, so I wouldn't expect a lot of difference.
The problem is that when your only tool is a lockdown hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
Indeed. It's in meat factories and clothing factories etc. but these dipsticks don't seem to understand that.
We can't afford a second lockdown. The economy is already dying.
I expect many pubs on Saturday will be like meat factories.
No, I don't think so.
They're in the public eye, unlike those businesses.
Everywhere I've been that's public takes social distancing and hygiene very seriously.
"A harbour no more China’s draconian security law for Hong Kong buries one country, two systems The regime in Beijing would rather be feared than admired"
Hong Kong had a very large share of Chinas GDP in 1997, but much less significant now.
Does anyone have figures on how many of the are British Overseas passport holders? And the age range? I would have thought that they would be the older population, while the young protestors are mostly born after 1997.
It'd about half. 3 million or so of Hong Kong's 7 million or so.
You've got to remember there was lots of immigration from the mainland by Chinese proper after 1997.
According to R4 yesterday the offer potentially extends to families.
It extends to dependents of BNO holders as well, yes.
Guardian: The first details of the controversial Brexit checks Boris Johnson insisted would not apply to trade across the Irish Sea have emerged, with mandatory paperwork for businesses in Great Britain supplying goods to Northern Ireland from January.
An HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) document marked “sensitive”, seen by the Guardian, reveals that firms in Great Britain will be obliged to complete three rounds of customs, security and transit forms on all goods.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1278354453960286208?s=20
If local lockdowns are not sufficient to prevent an overall rise in the incidence of the virus within the UK then it will point to a failure of policy - but if they are sufficient to keep the overall incidence of the virus low, and decreasing, then why would you have more lockdown that wasn't required?
The England cricket squad is practising for their series against the West Indies by playing a 3 day match against each other because there wasn't an alternative.
But on Worldometer that only puts us in.... 26th position (for today).
Israel had 1,000 new cases today
Turkey, 2,000
Saudi, 3,400
South Africa, 8,000
Brazil, 40,000
USA, 45,000 (so far)
O tempora, o mores, o fuck
"The BBC has told its presenters and guests not to wear Black Lives Matter badges as the campaign was accused of “hijacking” George Floyd’s death for political reasons.
Bosses at the corporation have decided not to allow “visual symbols of support” for Black Lives Matter to be worn on screen, senior sources told The Telegraph.
It comes as a number of high-profile organisations were forced to backtrack on their support for the Black Lives Matter movement as its UK arm publicly criticised Israel and called on the British government to “defund the police”."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/01/exclusive-bbc-bans-black-lives-matters-badges-air/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1593635759
Do we know how many tests for those other countries ?
As we now know. Covid-19 is not the flu. It's more infectious, more deadly, and has creepy new characteristics, with long term consequences. There is no vaccine, no one has immunity, the only remedy is economy-ruining lockdowns, unless you react very very quickly and deftly, and even then that might not work long term.
I agree that the internet amplifies disaster, but in this case it really is disaster, to start with
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1278433396516163585?s=21
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1278463553125658627
But of course we have more disease, so we need more tests.
Aside from Brexit & etc., would appear to Americans that Britons put a music hall act into No 10 Downing St, because they were copying us in installing Trumpsky's 3-ring circus as 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Now imitation IS the sincerest form of flattery. BUT somewhow I do NOT feel flattered.
Also, hospitalisations are up in some states that record them, like California. And ICUs are approaching capacity
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1278460910462308352/photo/2
And Arizona had its worst day for deaths today
It's a younger cohort getting infected, so deaths will really lag. But it is unfortunately quite likely that the US daily death toll will eventually rise again
I can easily see health systems being swamped in Latin America, India, Africa. Sadly
"Hong Kong: What is behind the UK's citizenship offer?
Laura Kuenssberg"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53258403
https://twitter.com/CovidNoticiasEs/status/1278472763058069505?s=20
I fear for countries without the ability to do that.
This is a nice bit of data. Worrying signs from South Africa and Nigeria
https://twitter.com/ExanteData/status/1278448632170151939?s=20
https://twitter.com/enugumetro/status/1278470393574154240?s=20
"Western lifestyles fuel growing obesity epidemic in Nigeria
Obesity is spreading in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, according to a new study that blames westernised lifestyles and warns of health problems to come"
https://www.theguardian.com/society/the-shape-we-are-in-blog/2014/jul/07/obesity-nigeria
I wonder if East Asia's ability to skirt covid-19 nightmares is just because they are thinner? Vietnam has one of the lowest obesity levels in the world, they crushed the virus overnight
Not to mention a familiarity with the concept of personal responsibility.
Non-obese people might suffer less severe or asymptomatic disease. or their immune systems might be better at fighting it off outright, reducing R0
The lack of obesity in Vietnam is really striking. I've been there several times, last time a couple of years ago. The food is superb, and incredibly healthy - lots of greens, fish, non-processed carbs. It's a poor country still, yet they have avoided the Covid fate of comparable countries in Latin America, South Asia, or, probably, Africa
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That being said, if CV-19 continue to worsen in AZ, then Trump could be in trouble there too.
I don't see any value at 10/3.
Edit: just seen the poll below putting Trump ahead in Arizona.
Well done, Vietnam. Well done, karma.
10/3 is not value.
I'm not convinced that Minnesota is in play because, in 2018, that was the state that swung most heavily to the Dems. That does not suggest that it is trending Republican.
Maine and New Hampshire are tough calls too.
I think if I were to bet on a surprise Republican pickup this time around, it would be Virginia.
If I am right that WI and MI are lost to Trump, that leaves the Dems needing 12 electoral college votes to pick up.
The private hospitals were part of the capacity building strategy.
To say “Ner ner, we did all the work, we’re the heroes and you’re just the “private sector” I” is profoundly unhelpful
Interest rates will be lower for longer removing a point of pressure
But lots of people may be unemployed
Many people may be nervous to take on a mortgage reducing demand
While lots of people will want a house with a garden increasing demand
Absolutely no memory. The government did nothing - it was just one of those things that happened. No lockdown or anything
I remember getting it. Certainly no lockdown, but if you got it, you were going nowhere but bed until you recovered.
Officers will carry out spot checks on vehicles leaving locked-down Leicester and could turn them around if their journey is not essential, it was revealed today, as confusion reigned because some areas in the city limits are in lockdown while neighbours are not.
Leicestershire Police is also threatening £100 fines amid growing concerns that residents may flee for the county's open pubs, hair salons or other attractions while patrols will also break up mass gatherings in the city after they were partially blamed for a spike in coronavirus cases in June."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8481783/Leaders-councils-threatened-Leicester-style-lockdowns-reject-idea.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53212932
https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1278511165593845760
https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1278513739365572611
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53259409
I may report from my local pub on Saturday, but I suspect the landlord won't be be serving non regulars.He is already pulling his hair out over trying to make the regulations work.
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1278430418161872909
China’s draconian security law for Hong Kong buries one country, two systems
The regime in Beijing would rather be feared than admired"
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/01/chinas-draconian-security-law-for-hong-kong-buries-one-country-two-systems
I also think people are not factoring in that I imagine most pubs will not be allowing a free for all (and it will not be in their interests to do so). I expect many/most to be imposing limits on numbers, possibly limits on consumption, maybe insisting on seating only etc etc. Responsible pub owners will be fully conscious of the damage images of drunken revelry would cause them and will want to avoid it. Irresponsible ones will be running grave risks of being immediately shut down again.
Does anyone have figures on how many of the are British Overseas passport holders? And the age range? I would have thought that they would be the older population, while the young protestors are mostly born after 1997.
Then I engaged my brain.
Transmission in Leicester seems to be at workplaces and homes, not pubs or shops, so I wouldn't expect a lot of difference.
The problem is that when your only tool is a lockdown hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
However, on reflection she was about a year older than I am now, so.....
I've a better memory of 1957, which was bad, too.
But in neither case were there any lockdowns or similar interventions.
You've got to remember there was lots of immigration from the mainland by Chinese proper after 1997.
We can't afford a second lockdown. The economy is already dying.
Dirty work but somebody has to do it....
They're in the public eye, unlike those businesses.
Everywhere I've been that's public takes social distancing and hygiene very seriously.
An HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) document marked “sensitive”, seen by the Guardian, reveals that firms in Great Britain will be obliged to complete three rounds of customs, security and transit forms on all goods.