If we limit ourselves to the Midlands, NW, NE, Yorks and the Humber, and Wales - effectively including the red wall, Labour only won 2.4m votes. Suggesting there were a million people at home seems optmistic.
However, Corbyn would have needed 750,000 additional votes from stay at hom voters to erase BoJo's majority via this route.
Which really only tells us what we knew already, which is that many Labour voters din't stay at home. They voted Tory.
Or Brexit.
Instructive that in many seats Labour lost, the fall in their voteshare was a remarkably close match to the Brexit party share, while in some cases the Tory vote barely shifted.
The Brexit piece is funny - that report leaked that has a blank page where it describes how Dover will function? I mocked this on Twitter that we can't possibly ready to exit transition and was told "that's not true, we'll go WTO". And this is Shagger's trump card to plan. Most Brexit supporters haven't a fucking clue how any of it works, what the different terms "EU", "Single Market", "WTO" actually mean.
So do as he did last year when he said no border down the Irish Sea then imposed border down the Irish Sea. Simply declare victory. We have LEFT. We can DO WHAT WE WANT. And what we want is to continue to do the exact same thing taht we were doing before for an undefined future period whilst we negotiate our deals with America and elsewhere.
And with the UK being the supplicant in those deals. With the eventual deals going a far worse deal than we have now at huge cost and faff with red tape. The whole thing will be quietly dropped. But thats ok. People got their blue passport printed in the EU at the cost of British jobs when the passport factory closed. Hurrah!
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
Not totally sure that in and of itself is incompetence. If a bank here was declared insolvent, it would have to suspend trading and nobody could access the money in their accounts.
Perhaps a more pertinent question when it comes to their incompetence is, as @Cyclefree has been saying for ages, how they let this total riot go on so long.
Given that they also regulate Deutsche Bank do you need to ask ?
Yes, if I have any money in a German bank, I would be pulling it out right now.
Doesn't bode well for Euro trading when it switches from London to Frankfurt, does it?
EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it
I hope sack means "remove the whip" not "remove from Shadow Cabinet".
When will Johnson be sacking Jenrick and removing the Whip from him?
When he engages in a sustained campaign of antisemitism so awful it draws the ire of the EHRC perhaps?
The Tory Party has a massive Islamophobia problem as you well know.
Your views as usual are inconsistent, we know if a Labour MP had been found to be doing what Jenrick has done, you'd be calling for them to lose the Whip.
I know no such thing. Any racists should be expelled from the party.
Criticising Islam, critising the niqab, criticisng misogyny, criticising homophobia is not racism. Any more than criticising paedophile priests is racist. Consistency is not racist.
It can be. Indirect discrimination is when a policy is consistently applied to everyone but particularly affects a group of people because of their protected characteristic. This type of discrimination can sometimes be justified if a policy is “a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim”. This legitimate aim can be something like maintaining a company image or protecting health and safety. Insisting that fruit pickers (as opposed to teachers) speak perfect English, for example, is consistent, but racist as it is a policy that has no legitimate aim - there is no need for fruit pickers to have much more than a basic grasp of English, if that. While criticising homophobia and misogyny in all cases is clearly a legitimate aim, I fail to see how blanket criticism of the niqab is always justified and therefore and not racist.
BTW indirect discrimination also means that provisions impacting Muslims disproportionately impact people of South Asian and Middle Eastern decent, so can be racist as well as islamophobic. Similarly discrimination against Catholics in the UK has often been coded discrimination against Irish people.
The niqab is a misogynistic garment designed to subjugate women and separate them from men so how is it racist to criticise it?
No race demands people wear it. No religion demands people wear it.
It is cultural subjugation and I see nothing racist in condemning misogyny.
Maybe, but the problem is that when Boris Johnson compares the niqab and burqa to bankrobbers and letter boxes it gives licence to racists, not to those who are against the subjugation of women, to publicly mock and intimidate Muslim women who choose to dress in this way. Which is, indeed, what happened after Boris's famous article. It wasn't feminists taking the piss out of those wearing niqabs, or tearing them off on the street, was it? It was actually racist misogynists. Words have power and should be used with care.
Racists were racists before that article and nothing changed after that article.
People have taken the piss out of niqabs for as long as they've been on the street and hopefully one day they won't be on the street anymore but until then the women subjugated into wearing them should be respected and pitied.
Not surprisingly, you've missed the point. And there was indeed a spike in such incidents after Boris's article and the furore around it.
More generally, you need to accept that some Muslim women choose to wear the niqab/burqa and see their choice as quite the opposite of subjugation - freedom from the gaze of men, for some. They would regard your "pity" for them as highly offensive.
There's no evidence there was a spike in such incidents after Boris's article.
There is evidence there was a spike in people reporting or claiming such incidents when people were campaigning to get them reported.
I accept that some women are happy to be subjugated. I couldn't give a rats ass if they find my pity for them highly offensive - I find their subjugation highly offensive. They're entitled to their beliefs, I'm entitled to mine.
And their subjugation has to do with their GENDER not their RACE. Nobody is born subjugated. Nobodies skin is born beneath a niqab hidden away from the world. People choose to clothe others like that, to drill into them that is what is expected of them. That is wrong and immoral and has nothing to do with skin colour.
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
Wait till the party starts with DB.
I think there is one German politician who wasn't involved with DB. And no one can remember who that one person was.
It was...... interesting how the investigations into DB paused when Brexit happened.....
They WANT those red wall seats. They want them BAD.
Has anyone run the numbers on how many seats would be won back if the million or so Labour voters who sat at home, voted again as they have historically?
Wouldn't that depend on whether the Brexit party voters abstained, or drifted to another party?
Assuming all constants stay the same except Labour has a million more voters.
If Lab only has 1 million extra votes compared to 2019 Silent Knight will be gone.
2015 9.3m
2017 12.9m
2019 10.3m
2024 11.3m!!! 1.6m less than the complete failure Corbyn in 2017
If we limit ourselves to the Midlands, NW, NE, Yorks and the Humber, and Wales - effectively including the red wall, Labour only won 2.4m votes. Suggesting there were a million people at home seems optmistic.
However, Corbyn would have needed 750,000 additional votes from stay at hom voters to erase BoJo's majority via this route.
Which really only tells us what we knew already, which is that many Labour voters din't stay at home. They voted Tory.
Or Brexit.
Instructive that in many seats Labour lost, the fall in their voteshare was a remarkably close match to the Brexit party share, while in some cases the Tory vote barely shifted.
On the night, I thought that, but it's not really true. If all Brexit supporters had instead voted Labour, Labour would have only won 18 more seats (a loss of 32 not 50) and BoJo would, once again have been in Downing Street.
Coronavirus has propelled the American right to a whole new level of batshit crazy.
I'm sorry but I thought religious views had to be respected.
Or is that respect only confined to.....er......certain religions
When did the American right become a religion?
Most of the attacks in that video were from a point of view of strong christian beliefs - not right wing politics.
The correlation between Evangelicalism and the political right is very strong in US politics. As a liberal Christian, I have no problem with facemasks. As an alternative to CPAP or intubation, facemasks are quite natural. Also commonly worn in biblical times for that matter too!
A sure sign of nutters is that they forget the second half of the bible. Which quite specifically overrides a fair bit in the first half.
Of course we are not supposed to pay any attention to the fact that the first half has a curious similarity to any other religion/religious beliefs. No sir, nothing to see here....
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
Not totally sure that in and of itself is incompetence. If a bank here was declared insolvent, it would have to suspend trading and nobody could access the money in their accounts.
Perhaps a more pertinent question when it comes to their incompetence is, as @Cyclefree has been saying for ages, how they let this total riot go on so long.
It is all about the culture in BaFin. They decided to attack the critics of Wirecard because they viewed them as 'Anglo-saxon' short-sellers and their journo mates. They let the issues escalate over a number of years instead of quitely nipping it in the bud, perhaps because they wanted a successful European Fintech company so badly.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it
I hope sack means "remove the whip" not "remove from Shadow Cabinet".
When will Johnson be sacking Jenrick and removing the Whip from him?
When he engages in a sustained campaign of antisemitism so awful it draws the ire of the EHRC perhaps?
The Tory Party has a massive Islamophobia problem as you well know.
Your views as usual are inconsistent, we know if a Labour MP had been found to be doing what Jenrick has done, you'd be calling for them to lose the Whip.
I know no such thing. Any racists should be expelled from the party.
Criticising Islam, critising the niqab, criticisng misogyny, criticising homophobia is not racism. Any more than criticising paedophile priests is racist. Consistency is not racist.
It can be. Indirect discrimination is when a policy is consistently applied to everyone but particularly affects a group of people because of their protected characteristic. This type of discrimination can sometimes be justified if a policy is “a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim”. This legitimate aim can be something like maintaining a company image or protecting health and safety. Insisting that fruit pickers (as opposed to teachers) speak perfect English, for example, is consistent, but racist as it is a policy that has no legitimate aim - there is no need for fruit pickers to have much more than a basic grasp of English, if that. While criticising homophobia and misogyny in all cases is clearly a legitimate aim, I fail to see how blanket criticism of the niqab is always justified and therefore and not racist.
BTW indirect discrimination also means that provisions impacting Muslims disproportionately impact people of South Asian and Middle Eastern decent, so can be racist as well as islamophobic. Similarly discrimination against Catholics in the UK has often been coded discrimination against Irish people.
The niqab is a misogynistic garment designed to subjugate women and separate them from men so how is it racist to criticise it?
No race demands people wear it. No religion demands people wear it.
It is cultural subjugation and I see nothing racist in condemning misogyny.
Maybe, but the problem is that when Boris Johnson compares the niqab and burqa to bankrobbers and letter boxes it gives licence to racists, not to those who are against the subjugation of women, to publicly mock and intimidate Muslim women who choose to dress in this way. Which is, indeed, what happened after Boris's famous article. It wasn't feminists taking the piss out of those wearing niqabs, or tearing them off on the street, was it? It was actually racist misogynists. Words have power and should be used with care.
Calling someone a letterbox is not an adult discussion about niqabs/burkas.
It was meant to be a joke, a tasteless joke and not the kind of tasteless joke that a top British politician should be making.
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
Not totally sure that in and of itself is incompetence. If a bank here was declared insolvent, it would have to suspend trading and nobody could access the money in their accounts.
Perhaps a more pertinent question when it comes to their incompetence is, as @Cyclefree has been saying for ages, how they let this total riot go on so long.
The answer is German regulators and politicians turning a blind eye to corporate malfeasance at a national champion because it would be politically damaging for Germany to admit one of their major companies was a house of cards run by fraudsters. See VW for a similar outcome.
The worst part is the regulator opening up numerous investigations against the FT and short sellers to protect Wirecard and ignoring what the FT and the hedge funds had to say because they accusations were being made against a German company that was "taking the fight to Silicon Valley and London".
I know a couple of people who work at the UK arm of it and one was in tears because she's done really good work and her career is done now because she's associated with this shambles at a time when good jobs are at a premium.
Honestly, it's actually time for the UK regulators to step in an cross check German branch operations on London rather than just trusting BaFin.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
No this is not true. Diane Abbot had a huge amount of blatant hate mail focussing on her race and sex. She routinely reffered these emails on so that action could be taken. Comments made by people who have seen these emails have said that the were shocked by them, and these are people whose job is to investigate insulting emails.
I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Au contraire. The first consignment of cheap chicken will help his numbers. A subsequent and associated outbreak of salmonella will however, send them crashing again.
Apart from anything else, how much cheaper can chicken get? You can buy a whole chicken for £3 in most supermarkets. Cheaper than an average pint in a pub. Once you allow for retail profit, marketing, UK distribution etc, the cost of the chicken itself is rock-bottom already. I am not convinced that to the average shopper the price would be any lower with chlorinated chicken.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
I think it's a little from both columns for both of them. There is a lot of racist and sexist abuse directed towards both of them but at the same time taking the piss out of Abbott for not being able to do simple maths or Patel for not being able to read a six figure number is neither racist nor sexist and a valid criticism of them.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
No this is not true. Diane Abbot had a huge amount of blatant hate mail focussing on her race and sex. She routinely reffered these emails on so that action could be taken. Comments made by people who have seen these emails have said that the were shocked by them, and these are people whose job is to investigate insulting emails.
I would agree with Rochdale that she is a rubbish politician.
She has suffered bullying though, mainly from within the PLP and some of that was undoubtedly racist in nature
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
Not totally sure that in and of itself is incompetence. If a bank here was declared insolvent, it would have to suspend trading and nobody could access the money in their accounts.
Perhaps a more pertinent question when it comes to their incompetence is, as @Cyclefree has been saying for ages, how they let this total riot go on so long.
It is all about the culture in BaFin. They decided to attack the critics of Wirecard because they viewed them as 'Anglo-saxon' short-sellers and their journo mates. They let the issues escalate over a number of years instead of quitely nipping it in the bud, perhaps because they wanted a successful European Fintech company so badly.
Well, they certainly got a European Fintech company badly. Is that a job half done?
EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it
I hope sack means "remove the whip" not "remove from Shadow Cabinet".
When will Johnson be sacking Jenrick and removing the Whip from him?
When he engages in a sustained campaign of antisemitism so awful it draws the ire of the EHRC perhaps?
The Tory Party has a massive Islamophobia problem as you well know.
Your views as usual are inconsistent, we know if a Labour MP had been found to be doing what Jenrick has done, you'd be calling for them to lose the Whip.
I know no such thing. Any racists should be expelled from the party.
Criticising Islam, critising the niqab, criticisng misogyny, criticising homophobia is not racism. Any more than criticising paedophile priests is racist. Consistency is not racist.
It can be. Indirect discrimination is when a policy is consistently applied to everyone but particularly affects a group of people because of their protected characteristic. This type of discrimination can sometimes be justified if a policy is “a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim”. This legitimate aim can be something like maintaining a company image or protecting health and safety. Insisting that fruit pickers (as opposed to teachers) speak perfect English, for example, is consistent, but racist as it is a policy that has no legitimate aim - there is no need for fruit pickers to have much more than a basic grasp of English, if that. While criticising homophobia and misogyny in all cases is clearly a legitimate aim, I fail to see how blanket criticism of the niqab is always justified and therefore and not racist.
BTW indirect discrimination also means that provisions impacting Muslims disproportionately impact people of South Asian and Middle Eastern decent, so can be racist as well as islamophobic. Similarly discrimination against Catholics in the UK has often been coded discrimination against Irish people.
The niqab is a misogynistic garment designed to subjugate women and separate them from men so how is it racist to criticise it?
No race demands people wear it. No religion demands people wear it.
It is cultural subjugation and I see nothing racist in condemning misogyny.
Maybe, but the problem is that when Boris Johnson compares the niqab and burqa to bankrobbers and letter boxes it gives licence to racists, not to those who are against the subjugation of women, to publicly mock and intimidate Muslim women who choose to dress in this way. Which is, indeed, what happened after Boris's famous article. It wasn't feminists taking the piss out of those wearing niqabs, or tearing them off on the street, was it? It was actually racist misogynists. Words have power and should be used with care.
Calling someone a letterbox is not an adult discussion about niqabs/burkas.
It was meant to be a joke, a tasteless joke and not the kind of tasteless joke that a top British politician should be making.
But the kind of joke the great British electorate loves and what makes ‘their Boris’ such a diamond geezer and one of us. It makes people comfortable in their passive racism and allows the worse cases to be swept under the carpet.
Coronavirus has propelled the American right to a whole new level of batshit crazy.
I'm sorry but I thought religious views had to be respected.
Or is that respect only confined to.....er......certain religions
I don't believe all religious views should be respected by any means.
No need to be coy about your prejudice towards "er... certain religions" it's fairly obvious what your views are.
Great scott a mind reader! Olly as usual you've looking into my very SOUL and found out the truth!
What a talent! what a gift!
So glad you are sharing it with the world on here!
What not just come out and say Islam then instead of "er... certain religions". I'm happy to criticise all religions when necessary, I've only ever known you attack one.
If we limit ourselves to the Midlands, NW, NE, Yorks and the Humber, and Wales - effectively including the red wall, Labour only won 2.4m votes. Suggesting there were a million people at home seems optmistic.
However, Corbyn would have needed 750,000 additional votes from stay at hom voters to erase BoJo's majority via this route.
Which really only tells us what we knew already, which is that many Labour voters din't stay at home. They voted Tory.
Or Brexit.
Instructive that in many seats Labour lost, the fall in their voteshare was a remarkably close match to the Brexit party share, while in some cases the Tory vote barely shifted.
I suspect quite a bit of the support the Conservatives gained in 2017 went to TBP in 2019 with the Conservatives gaining some direct from Labour to compensate.
TBP were very active in South Yorkshire with a "Conservatives can't win here" message and used the EU elections as evidence.
I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Au contraire. The first consignment of cheap chicken will help his numbers. A subsequent and associated outbreak of salmonella will however, send them crashing again.
Apart from anything else, how much cheaper can chicken get? You can buy a whole chicken for £3 in most supermarkets. Cheaper than an average pint in a pub. Once you allow for retail profit, marketing, UK distribution etc, the cost of the chicken itself is rock-bottom already. I am not convinced that to the average shopper the price would be any lower with chlorinated chicken.
The more this is discussed, the more people will go off meat I'd say
What would really put people off meat is if meat substitutes were cheaper and most of all better quality.
I can say from personal experience that vegan bacon is neither.
I had a vegetarian sausage once.
Being quite small (about seven) and not understanding, I asked if all vegetarians tasted this horrible.
I have a similar story. As a child I hated the taste and smell of achololic drinks, including desserts with alcohol. When I was about 8 I said to my family "I don't like alcoholics!". My brother had to explain why everyone burst out laughing.
BTW veggie sausages have improved dramatically since you were 7, well most of them.
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
I've had cash on two euro-denominated FairFX cards frozen. Should I be worried?
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
I've had cash on two euro-denominated FairFX cards frozen. Should I be worried?
Depends if you need the cash! But for those that do I hope help is at hand.
If we limit ourselves to the Midlands, NW, NE, Yorks and the Humber, and Wales - effectively including the red wall, Labour only won 2.4m votes. Suggesting there were a million people at home seems optmistic.
However, Corbyn would have needed 750,000 additional votes from stay at hom voters to erase BoJo's majority via this route.
Which really only tells us what we knew already, which is that many Labour voters din't stay at home. They voted Tory.
Or Brexit.
Instructive that in many seats Labour lost, the fall in their voteshare was a remarkably close match to the Brexit party share, while in some cases the Tory vote barely shifted.
Thought Labour lost more votes to the LDs than BXP
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
I think it's a little from both columns for both of them. There is a lot of racist and sexist abuse directed towards both of them but at the same time taking the piss out of Abbott for not being able to do simple maths or Patel for not being able to read a six figure number is neither racist nor sexist and a valid criticism of them.
Yet Phil Hammond can fluff an interview over HS2 finances or Andrew Mitchell can completely fail to answer a simple question about the minimum wage and everyone just shrugs it off.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
I think it's a little from both columns for both of them. There is a lot of racist and sexist abuse directed towards both of them but at the same time taking the piss out of Abbott for not being able to do simple maths or Patel for not being able to read a six figure number is neither racist nor sexist and a valid criticism of them.
As someone who has defended PP over number-reading-gate because I think a badly-formatted number in the script is more likely, let me also say that most of the attacks on DA on other forums I've seen, even those concentrating on her police pay sums, do seem to come from people whose other posts are indeed racist.
So Keir probably has another 22 seats without doing much. Thanks all for your calculations.
So Keir probably needs to win another 40-70 seats to be PM. That will explain and focus his messaging, I would assume.
What are these next 40 seats? The swing required is a decent 5-7%, slightly less if the Lib Dems perform better than expected.
Didn't Clinton assume she had certain voters banked. How'd that work out for her?
An anaysis of GE 2019 in Chesterfield showed an almost total correlation between leave areas and lost Labour votes. The safest council wards for Labour that were the highest Leave areas, the GE vote collapsed. The only Remain ward, that was a Tory Council seat showed Lab win that ward in the GE 2019 vote which it never does.
Silent Knight has no chance of winning back those Leave voters IMO
So Keir probably has another 22 seats without doing much. Thanks all for your calculations.
So Keir probably needs to win another 40-70 seats to be PM. That will explain and focus his messaging, I would assume.
What are these next 40 seats? The swing required is a decent 5-7%, slightly less if the Lib Dems perform better than expected.
Again, the assumption that the additional 1m votes are free of attrition is wrong.
True, though the principle that SKS has some low-hanging fruit to pick is sound. It's the converse of the observation that Labour got almost everything wrong in 2019. Some things (not having an actively repellent leader, sounding like the party doesn't actively hate White Britain, not being antisemitic, being competent about party management) are pretty easy to fix. They're not sufficient, but clearly they are a good start.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
I think it's a little from both columns for both of them. There is a lot of racist and sexist abuse directed towards both of them but at the same time taking the piss out of Abbott for not being able to do simple maths or Patel for not being able to read a six figure number is neither racist nor sexist and a valid criticism of them.
Yet Phil Hammond can fluff an interview over HS2 finances or Andrew Mitchell can completely fail to answer a simple question about the minimum wage and everyone just shrugs it off.
Wasn't Andrew Mitchell forced to resign from the government for allegedly calling a police officer 'pleb?'
If we limit ourselves to the Midlands, NW, NE, Yorks and the Humber, and Wales - effectively including the red wall, Labour only won 2.4m votes. Suggesting there were a million people at home seems optmistic.
However, Corbyn would have needed 750,000 additional votes from stay at hom voters to erase BoJo's majority via this route.
Which really only tells us what we knew already, which is that many Labour voters din't stay at home. They voted Tory.
Or Brexit.
Instructive that in many seats Labour lost, the fall in their voteshare was a remarkably close match to the Brexit party share, while in some cases the Tory vote barely shifted.
Thought Labour lost more votes to the LDs than BXP
I don't know. I'm only looking at the figures. Not the churn.
Would be interested to see the research on that, but it hasn't come my way yet.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
No this is not true. Diane Abbot had a huge amount of blatant hate mail focussing on her race and sex. She routinely reffered these emails on so that action could be taken. Comments made by people who have seen these emails have said that the were shocked by them, and these are people whose job is to investigate insulting emails.
I would agree with Rochdale that she is a rubbish politician.
She has suffered bullying though, mainly from within the PLP and some of that was undoubtedly racist in nature
I want to make it clear that I was not claiming she deserved no criticism. But to deny that the hate mail was racist and sexist, just adds to the problem.
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
I've had cash on two euro-denominated FairFX cards frozen. Should I be worried?
Depends if you need the cash! But for those that do I hope help is at hand.
I don't. I just top them up when the rate is good for use later on. Not needed till September. I was more curious as to how serious the problem was. I had no idea FairFX was in any way connected to Wirecard.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
I think it's a little from both columns for both of them. There is a lot of racist and sexist abuse directed towards both of them but at the same time taking the piss out of Abbott for not being able to do simple maths or Patel for not being able to read a six figure number is neither racist nor sexist and a valid criticism of them.
Yet Phil Hammond can fluff an interview over HS2 finances or Andrew Mitchell can completely fail to answer a simple question about the minimum wage and everyone just shrugs it off.
Wasn't Andrew Mitchell forced to resign from the government for allegedly calling a police officer 'pleb?'
Yes he let his guard down and revealed how he really felt about those lesser folks.
They WANT those red wall seats. They want them BAD.
Has anyone run the numbers on how many seats would be won back if the million or so Labour voters who sat at home, voted again as they have historically?
Wouldn't that depend on whether the Brexit party voters abstained, or drifted to another party?
Assuming all constants stay the same except Labour has a million more voters.
If Lab only has 1 million extra votes compared to 2019 Silent Knight will be gone.
2015 9.3m
2017 12.9m
2019 10.3m
2024 11.3m!!! 1.6m less than the complete failure Corbyn in 2017
Glad you are now on board with the"complete failure Corbyn" idea!
They WANT those red wall seats. They want them BAD.
Has anyone run the numbers on how many seats would be won back if the million or so Labour voters who sat at home, voted again as they have historically?
Wouldn't that depend on whether the Brexit party voters abstained, or drifted to another party?
Assuming all constants stay the same except Labour has a million more voters.
If Lab only has 1 million extra votes compared to 2019 Silent Knight will be gone.
2015 9.3m
2017 12.9m
2019 10.3m
2024 11.3m!!! 1.6m less than the complete failure Corbyn in 2017
Glad you are now on board with the"complete failure Corbyn" idea!
And if he gets (say) 10 million votes in all the right places and a majority of 1 then he should resign?
I think not.
If Corbyn had had the votes in the right places, he would be PM now.
Outspoken anti-slavery activist and a leader in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_Awakes (who were a big force in opposing slave catching). Fought and died in the Civil War, for the Union.
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
I've had cash on two euro-denominated FairFX cards frozen. Should I be worried?
Depends if you need the cash! But for those that do I hope help is at hand.
Outspoken anti-slavery activist and a leader in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_Awakes (who were a big force in opposing slave catching). Fought and died in the Civil War, for the Union.
19th century wokes? I thought I had seen everything.
So Keir probably has another 22 seats without doing much. Thanks all for your calculations.
So Keir probably needs to win another 40-70 seats to be PM. That will explain and focus his messaging, I would assume.
What are these next 40 seats? The swing required is a decent 5-7%, slightly less if the Lib Dems perform better than expected.
Didn't Clinton assume she had certain voters banked. How'd that work out for her?
An anaysis of GE 2019 in Chesterfield showed an almost total correlation between leave areas and lost Labour votes. The safest council wards for Labour that were the highest Leave areas, the GE vote collapsed. The only Remain ward, that was a Tory Council seat showed Lab win that ward in the GE 2019 vote which it never does.
Silent Knight has no chance of winning back those Leave voters IMO
One way or another, Leave/Remain won't be an issue in 2024. Either this government will have found a successful post-EU solution for Britain that keeps the 52% happy, or it won't. If it doesn't, it'll be like Iraq; you simply won't be able to find people who voted Leave in 2016. They will vanish into the forest like fairies.
I don't think this will end well, because I don't think any solution can resolve the contradictions inherent in Brexit, but we shall see. Accepting Brexit and "looking forward to seeing the brilliant deal the Prime Minister has assured us we can deliver" is pragmatic and shrewd.
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
I've had cash on two euro-denominated FairFX cards frozen. Should I be worried?
Depends if you need the cash! But for those that do I hope help is at hand.
I am not attacking Lucas for being a woman or anything else. She is still by far and away one of the best MPs in Parliament.
I say I lost respect for her over Brexit because she's always seemed very sensible to me. And she voted down soft Brexit compromises that would have likely passed with the influence she does/did have.
Your first line encapsulates the problems with identity politics entirely. You should be free to criticise any individual without fear of being seen as sexist or racist. Just because someone is a woman, black, Asian or Jewish it doesn't make it impossible for them to be an arsehole deserving of criticism. When we judge people positively because of their sex or skin colour or background and make assumptions about them it will allow individuals to get away with anything.
This is the problem with those criticising the attacks on Diane Abbott. Most of the memes circulating aren't attacking her skin colour or gender, they're attacking her because she's an entirely crap politician. They had the same problem with Priti Patel - said she couldn't claim to have been racially abused becausze she's a Tory. So don't invoke her race - she's another utterly crap politician.
No this is not true. Diane Abbot had a huge amount of blatant hate mail focussing on her race and sex. She routinely reffered these emails on so that action could be taken. Comments made by people who have seen these emails have said that the were shocked by them, and these are people whose job is to investigate insulting emails.
I would agree with Rochdale that she is a rubbish politician.
She has suffered bullying though, mainly from within the PLP and some of that was undoubtedly racist in nature
I want to make it clear that I was not claiming she deserved no criticism. But to deny that the hate mail was racist and sexist, just adds to the problem.
Corbyn was a total failure, I don't see how you can conclude otherwise. And I say that as somebody who supported him.
You'd have to be deluded to conclude otherwise, there is no conflict between supporting somebody and them failing, then you supporting somebody else.
I want Silent Knight to win but think there is close to Zero chance he gets more than the12.9m votes Lab got in 2017.
Of course its possible to win with less, but very unlikely without a strong LD surge in Tory areas
Total votes cast means nothing though - thats why the various "infographics" showing how Tory wins over Corbyn were better results than Labour wins under Blair were so funny. If Labour want to win they need various things: 1. Win votes in seats you can win. Not piling them up in safe or trophy seats 2. Have the Tories lose votes. You cannot win an election unless the government becomes less popular than it was 3. Have other parties take seats off the Tories. Thats the SNP and LibDems
Corbyn was a total failure, I don't see how you can conclude otherwise. And I say that as somebody who supported him.
You'd have to be deluded to conclude otherwise, there is no conflict between supporting somebody and them failing, then you supporting somebody else.
I want Silent Knight to win but think there is close to Zero chance he gets more than the12.9m votes Lab got in 2017.
Of course its possible to win with less, but very unlikely without a strong LD surge in Tory areas
Coronavirus- Brexit, quite possibly without a deal - Economic Depression on an unprecedent scale: who can say what political outcomes are possible as a result?
Coronavirus has propelled the American right to a whole new level of batshit crazy.
I'm sorry but I thought religious views had to be respected.
Or is that respect only confined to.....er......certain religions
When did the American right become a religion?
Most of the attacks in that video were from a point of view of strong christian beliefs - not right wing politics.
How do you know they were Christian? A lot of it was Old Testament stuff.
Not many atheists, jews, muslims, hindus or buddhists quote the King James Bible...
Richard Dawkins does.
Admittedly I've often wondered if he's actually a fundie Christian trying to make atheists look silly, but he has always said he considers the Bible a great work of literature.
That is true enough, but I think his other views about its content come across clearly enough
He does make statements from time to time that, to me at least, seem to verge on eugenics.
The evolutionary process is eugenics in action. He certainly believes in the evolutionary process.
They WANT those red wall seats. They want them BAD.
Has anyone run the numbers on how many seats would be won back if the million or so Labour voters who sat at home, voted again as they have historically?
Wouldn't that depend on whether the Brexit party voters abstained, or drifted to another party?
Assuming all constants stay the same except Labour has a million more voters.
If Lab only has 1 million extra votes compared to 2019 Silent Knight will be gone.
2015 9.3m
2017 12.9m
2019 10.3m
2024 11.3m!!! 1.6m less than the complete failure Corbyn in 2017
It always mighty misleading to compare party vote shares between different elections. So much depends on the strength of alternative parties.
Blair. remember won a clear majority at GE2005 with 35.2% of the national vote.
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
I've had cash on two euro-denominated FairFX cards frozen. Should I be worried?
Depends if you need the cash! But for those that do I hope help is at hand.
Are we assuming people who voted Brexit Party in the NE are going to return to Labour no matter what their immigration policy?
I'm not. Nor is it as simple as immigration policy. Its towns and regions left behind. They didn't vote for the Tories because they expect the party who decimated their community to fix them, they did so because Brexit would fix them. By2024 Brexit will have improved nothing and the Tories won't have transformed Blyth Valley or Sedgefield. So those votes will be up for grabs.
It won't be as simple as "they'll switch back to Labour". Part of that depends on what Labour nationally and in those locales are saying / doing. Part depends on mood. A bit - so will think some of the newly elected Tory MPs - will depend on what they do. Isn't the reality of things that MPs are laregly the plaything of national politics? You can be an excellent MP with a good local record but fundamentally that won't matter if your party is going down.
So Keir probably has another 22 seats without doing much. Thanks all for your calculations.
So Keir probably needs to win another 40-70 seats to be PM. That will explain and focus his messaging, I would assume.
What are these next 40 seats? The swing required is a decent 5-7%, slightly less if the Lib Dems perform better than expected.
The current EMA shares are C/L/LD 43.6/37.1/7.4 This gives the Tories a majority of 26 A further 2% swing from Tory to lab leaves the Tories 11 short of a majority. The Labour gains are shown here:
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
Not totally sure that in and of itself is incompetence. If a bank here was declared insolvent, it would have to suspend trading and nobody could access the money in their accounts.
Perhaps a more pertinent question when it comes to their incompetence is, as @Cyclefree has been saying for ages, how they let this total riot go on so long.
The answer is German regulators and politicians turning a blind eye to corporate malfeasance at a national champion because it would be politically damaging for Germany to admit one of their major companies was a house of cards run by fraudsters. See VW for a similar outcome.
The worst part is the regulator opening up numerous investigations against the FT and short sellers to protect Wirecard and ignoring what the FT and the hedge funds had to say because they accusations were being made against a German company that was "taking the fight to Silicon Valley and London".
I know a couple of people who work at the UK arm of it and one was in tears because she's done really good work and her career is done now because she's associated with this shambles at a time when good jobs are at a premium.
Honestly, it's actually time for the UK regulators to step in an cross check German branch operations on London rather than just trusting BaFin.
We won’t get equivalence if we adopt that policy. I’m not saying it’s the wrong decision but we must be cognisant of the costs
What was she saying? I could only hear her scream. If she wants to get her message out, it needs to be understandable.
The word "Shrill" gets thrown at women so often, I hesitate to use it, but in this case it seems to be the only appropriate description.
She says, i think, at one point, "Why are we fighting? You look just like me!"
She literally doesn't understand that people can look alike, and yet think differently. I believe there's a word for people who insist that that phenomenon is impossible...
So Keir probably has another 22 seats without doing much. Thanks all for your calculations.
So Keir probably needs to win another 40-70 seats to be PM. That will explain and focus his messaging, I would assume.
What are these next 40 seats? The swing required is a decent 5-7%, slightly less if the Lib Dems perform better than expected.
The current EMA shares are C/L/LD 43.6/37.1/7.4 This gives the Tories a majority of 26 A further 2% swing from Tory to lab leaves the Tories 11 short of a majority. The Labour gains are shown here:
On the bottom numbers you could almost cobble together some kind of leftist coalition. Perhaps enough to get voting reform through and then another election - but it would be a mess
Really, if Labour can get 262+ seats, Starmer can probably become PM. Of course it's a damning indictment of Labour's performance to only achieve that after so many years in opposition.
On topic, I don't think there is value betting Biden will get more than 350 electoral votes, nor Trump less than 188.
Firstly, a lot of people made up their minds a long time ago and aren't going to be changing them. When one looks over Trump's Presidency what is remarkable is how narrow the range in which his popularity rating moves.
Given the historically relatively low number of swing voters, it's hard to see how Biden builds much on the 8-10% lead he has at the moment - it feels quite close to the high water mark.
Looking at the specific target states, there are plenty enough electoral votes in states where Trump won by under 5% to provide Biden with multiple routes to victory. These are Michigan (16 EVs), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), Arizona (11), North Carolina (15). He doesn't need to target more than this, and risks spreading ad spend and so on too thin if he does.
Those plus the odd one EV in Omaha (Nebraska splits its EVs) takes Biden to 334 and Trump to 204 if he hits ALL targets. And there are lots of combos where he misses several of those targets and still wins.
The one additional state he may push seriously for is Georgia (16) as there is a potential Senate pick-up there which may be pivotal for control of Congress. That would take it to 350/188 potentially. But even that is complicated by Georgia's run-off system. If Democrats are competitive but under 50% in either the general or special election there, it'll go to a run-off on 5 January. Only the GOP realistically has the chance to break 50% in November and avoid a run-off.
Biden won't totally ignore Ohio and Texas as it helps pin Trump down in redder states. But Texas doesn't have a highly competitive Senate race and Ohio has none at all. I have serious doubts Biden will commit enough resource to win either. I know that goes against polls showing those states are tight but, as I say, I think Biden's current national lead is near the high water mark and Trump will outspend and outmuscle Biden in these places in the end. On balance, I also don't think it's in Trump's character NOT to spend to save face in these states - I think he'll fall back on them rather than risk the humiliation of a landslide.
On the flip side, the states the Democrats won narrowly in 2016 aren't that delegate rich - New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), Maine except ME2 (2). There seems to be little in the polls to suggest any are in play even if the race tightens, and only in Maine is there a case to be made based on the Senate seat (and there it's shaky as Collins will want to keep Trump at arm's length).
So Keir probably has another 22 seats without doing much. Thanks all for your calculations.
So Keir probably needs to win another 40-70 seats to be PM. That will explain and focus his messaging, I would assume.
What are these next 40 seats? The swing required is a decent 5-7%, slightly less if the Lib Dems perform better than expected.
The current EMA shares are C/L/LD 43.6/37.1/7.4 This gives the Tories a majority of 26 A further 2% swing from Tory to lab leaves the Tories 11 short of a majority. The Labour gains are shown here:
On the bottom numbers you could almost cobble together some kind of leftist coalition. Perhaps enough to get voting reform through and then another election - but it would be a mess
If the LibDems recover 6% points, 3% from Tory (no Corbyn) and 3% from Lab (tactical anti Tory) then the result is a more comfortable coalition or "understanding".
"Thousands of people in the UK are unable to access their money owing to the fallout from the scandal to hit payments firm Wirecard. The UK licence of Wirecard Card Solutions has been frozen by the regulator after its German parent company filed for insolvency.
It means people are temporarily unable to access cash held with financial apps in the UK using Wirecard technology. Some have spoken of their frustration, but their money should be safe.
Wirecard Card Solutions serves prepaid cards, such as the U Account, which marketed itself as an alternative to a bank which helped people to budget and avoid hefty overdraft fees. "This is a massive issue for many customers who rely on the money placed in their U account for everyday essentials including the ability to pay rent and buy food," one customer told the BBC."
Not totally sure that in and of itself is incompetence. If a bank here was declared insolvent, it would have to suspend trading and nobody could access the money in their accounts.
Perhaps a more pertinent question when it comes to their incompetence is, as @Cyclefree has been saying for ages, how they let this total riot go on so long.
The answer is German regulators and politicians turning a blind eye to corporate malfeasance at a national champion because it would be politically damaging for Germany to admit one of their major companies was a house of cards run by fraudsters. See VW for a similar outcome.
The worst part is the regulator opening up numerous investigations against the FT and short sellers to protect Wirecard and ignoring what the FT and the hedge funds had to say because they accusations were being made against a German company that was "taking the fight to Silicon Valley and London".
I know a couple of people who work at the UK arm of it and one was in tears because she's done really good work and her career is done now because she's associated with this shambles at a time when good jobs are at a premium.
Honestly, it's actually time for the UK regulators to step in an cross check German branch operations on London rather than just trusting BaFin.
We won’t get equivalence if we adopt that policy. I’m not saying it’s the wrong decision but we must be cognisant of the costs
Tbh, the price of equivalence is incredibly high already and unless there is three party consent (UK, EU, independent) on it's application and a long break clause then it might not be worth it anyway.
I think the last few years have shown that the City is more than just a clearing house for Euro denominated trades as the EU wants to think it is.
I actually think attack is the best form of defence here, we should be the arbiter if equivalence for City compatibility. The money is here, not there.
Really, if Labour can get 262+ seats, Starmer can probably become PM. Of course it's a damning indictment of Labour's performance to only achieve that after so many years in opposition.
PM while your own party is 60+ seats short of a majority? That'll be a strong government all right ...
So Keir probably has another 22 seats without doing much. Thanks all for your calculations.
So Keir probably needs to win another 40-70 seats to be PM. That will explain and focus his messaging, I would assume.
What are these next 40 seats? The swing required is a decent 5-7%, slightly less if the Lib Dems perform better than expected.
The current EMA shares are C/L/LD 43.6/37.1/7.4 This gives the Tories a majority of 26 A further 2% swing from Tory to lab leaves the Tories 11 short of a majority. The Labour gains are shown here:
On the bottom numbers you could almost cobble together some kind of leftist coalition. Perhaps enough to get voting reform through and then another election - but it would be a mess
If the LibDems recover 6% points, 3% from Tory (no Corbyn) and 3% from Lab (tactical anti Tory) then the result is a more comfortable coalition or "understanding".
Really can't see the Tories dropping below 40% myself.
The man being screamed at in the video upthread is Donald Folden, who runs the Capital Buddy Tours company, including the DC Black History Tour he advertises in his placard.
He's no coward when it comes to calling out racism and the racists, as this video where he challenges a far-right activist waving the confederate flag shows:
Are we assuming people who voted Brexit Party in the NE are going to return to Labour no matter what their immigration policy?
Doesn't that depend on whether immigration is a big issue in 2024?
In the eighties immigration featured regularly as an issue when polled, despite barely any immigration, and occasionally new emigration. It is often a dislike of existing immigrants rather than the net flow.
Speaking to some folk at the Uni, I expect that there will be substantial net emigration showing in the student figures over the next couple of years. Possibly even net emigration overall.
EHRC results should be out quite soon, Starmer has a lot of good will IMHO if he sacks the people that deserve it
I hope sack means "remove the whip" not "remove from Shadow Cabinet".
When will Johnson be sacking Jenrick and removing the Whip from him?
When he engages in a sustained campaign of antisemitism so awful it draws the ire of the EHRC perhaps?
The Tory Party has a massive Islamophobia problem as you well know.
Your views as usual are inconsistent, we know if a Labour MP had been found to be doing what Jenrick has done, you'd be calling for them to lose the Whip.
I know no such thing. Any racists should be expelled from the party.
Criticising Islam, critising the niqab, criticisng misogyny, criticising homophobia is not racism. Any more than criticising paedophile priests is racist. Consistency is not racist.
It can be. Indirect discrimination is when a policy is consistently applied to everyone but particularly affects a group of people because of their protected characteristic. This type of discrimination can sometimes be justified if a policy is “a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim”. This legitimate aim can be something like maintaining a company image or protecting health and safety. Insisting that fruit pickers (as opposed to teachers) speak perfect English, for example, is consistent, but racist as it is a policy that has no legitimate aim - there is no need for fruit pickers to have much more than a basic grasp of English, if that. While criticising homophobia and misogyny in all cases is clearly a legitimate aim, I fail to see how blanket criticism of the niqab is always justified and therefore and not racist.
BTW indirect discrimination also means that provisions impacting Muslims disproportionately impact people of South Asian and Middle Eastern decent, so can be racist as well as islamophobic. Similarly discrimination against Catholics in the UK has often been coded discrimination against Irish people.
The niqab is a misogynistic garment designed to subjugate women and separate them from men so how is it racist to criticise it?
No race demands people wear it. No religion demands people wear it.
It is cultural subjugation and I see nothing racist in condemning misogyny.
Lots of white men on here today chiming in. Maybe we should ask someone who actually wears one about it?
I think, as the Sky polling experts has just, said Boris's recent announcements have been popular as is his optimism and the polling should see a substantial move to him if it succeeds, but less so if it goes wrong
I do not see anyone on thos forum, Scott included, who would disagree with this polling expert
He has the same problem as Trump in that regard.
You can't troll reality. The virus doesn't care how clever or witty your speech is.
If there is another spike, BoZo will suffer. If the schools don't open, BoZo will suffer.
And Brexit rumbles on. If Nissan closes, BoZo will struggle to spin that as good news.
If the chunnel shudders to a halt, a cheery speech will not help.
The first consignment of chlorine chicken will not help his numbers.
Au contraire. The first consignment of cheap chicken will help his numbers. A subsequent and associated outbreak of salmonella will however, send them crashing again.
Apart from anything else, how much cheaper can chicken get? You can buy a whole chicken for £3 in most supermarkets. Cheaper than an average pint in a pub. Once you allow for retail profit, marketing, UK distribution etc, the cost of the chicken itself is rock-bottom already. I am not convinced that to the average shopper the price would be any lower with chlorinated chicken.
They WANT those red wall seats. They want them BAD.
Has anyone run the numbers on how many seats would be won back if the million or so Labour voters who sat at home, voted again as they have historically?
Wouldn't that depend on whether the Brexit party voters abstained, or drifted to another party?
Assuming all constants stay the same except Labour has a million more voters.
Well, I don't think I would ever assume that. It's not physics or maths.
There are many very fluid variables. Certainly getting those former Labour voters who abstained in 2019 is important. But so is peeling off any vote that went to the Tories. Or splitting them from the Brexit party voters, who will be looking for a new home. And working out a policy offering to deal with the ongoing aftermath of the pandemic.
I just want to see what the election outcome would have been
I've run it up in Excel.
If you add a million (approx 10% more) vote to Labour, in proportion to the votes they actually received, then Labour would have won 22 more seats:
Birmingham, Northfield Blyth Valley Bolton North East Bridgend Burnley Bury North Bury South Chingford and Woodford Green Chipping Barnet Clwyd South Delyn Dewsbury Gedling Heywood and Middleton High Peak Keighley Kensington Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath North West Durham Stoke-On-Trent Central Warrington South Wolverhampton South West
Boris would still have had a working majority.
Another 2 million and they would still not have won Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
The SNP had a majority of 2 million in Kirkcaldy and Cowndenbeath?
Who was their election agent? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?
Comments
Instructive that in many seats Labour lost, the fall in their voteshare was a remarkably close match to the Brexit party share, while in some cases the Tory vote barely shifted.
As public scrutiny of a secretive panel of scientists heightened, its members nearly buckled under the strain."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/sage-britain-coronavirus-ferguson.html
So do as he did last year when he said no border down the Irish Sea then imposed border down the Irish Sea. Simply declare victory. We have LEFT. We can DO WHAT WE WANT. And what we want is to continue to do the exact same thing taht we were doing before for an undefined future period whilst we negotiate our deals with America and elsewhere.
And with the UK being the supplicant in those deals. With the eventual deals going a far worse deal than we have now at huge cost and faff with red tape. The whole thing will be quietly dropped. But thats ok. People got their blue passport printed in the EU at the cost of British jobs when the passport factory closed. Hurrah!
Doesn't bode well for Euro trading when it switches from London to Frankfurt, does it?
There is evidence there was a spike in people reporting or claiming such incidents when people were campaigning to get them reported.
I accept that some women are happy to be subjugated. I couldn't give a rats ass if they find my pity for them highly offensive - I find their subjugation highly offensive. They're entitled to their beliefs, I'm entitled to mine.
And their subjugation has to do with their GENDER not their RACE. Nobody is born subjugated. Nobodies skin is born beneath a niqab hidden away from the world. People choose to clothe others like that, to drill into them that is what is expected of them. That is wrong and immoral and has nothing to do with skin colour.
I think there is one German politician who wasn't involved with DB. And no one can remember who that one person was.
It was...... interesting how the investigations into DB paused when Brexit happened.....
2015 9.3m
2017 12.9m
2019 10.3m
2024 11.3m!!! 1.6m less than the complete failure Corbyn in 2017
Of course we are not supposed to pay any attention to the fact that the first half has a curious similarity to any other religion/religious beliefs. No sir, nothing to see here....
It was meant to be a joke, a tasteless joke and not the kind of tasteless joke that a top British politician should be making.
The worst part is the regulator opening up numerous investigations against the FT and short sellers to protect Wirecard and ignoring what the FT and the hedge funds had to say because they accusations were being made against a German company that was "taking the fight to Silicon Valley and London".
I know a couple of people who work at the UK arm of it and one was in tears because she's done really good work and her career is done now because she's associated with this shambles at a time when good jobs are at a premium.
Honestly, it's actually time for the UK regulators to step in an cross check German branch operations on London rather than just trusting BaFin.
https://vivera.com/products - the bacon bits and steak
https://likemeat.com/uk/products - the smoked sausage!
So Keir probably needs to win another 40-70 seats to be PM. That will explain and focus his messaging, I would assume.
What are these next 40 seats? The swing required is a decent 5-7%, slightly less if the Lib Dems perform better than expected.
https://www.itv.com/news/london/2020-06-24/londons-iconic-city-hall-set-to-close-in-a-shock-plan-to-save-11m-a-year/
She has suffered bullying though, mainly from within the PLP and some of that was undoubtedly racist in nature
TBP were very active in South Yorkshire with a "Conservatives can't win here" message and used the EU elections as evidence.
BTW veggie sausages have improved dramatically since you were 7, well most of them.
I've had cash on two euro-denominated FairFX cards frozen. Should I be worried?
Silent Knight has no chance of winning back those Leave voters IMO
Would be interested to see the research on that, but it hasn't come my way yet.
Now given that your own assumptions were more than a little incorrect last year perhaps some more caution might be in order ?
The word "Shrill" gets thrown at women so often, I hesitate to use it, but in this case it seems to be the only appropriate description.
I think not.
If Corbyn had had the votes in the right places, he would be PM now.
You'd have to be deluded to conclude otherwise, there is no conflict between supporting somebody and them failing, then you supporting somebody else.
You want bizarre - tearing down https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statue_of_Hans_Christian_Heg
Outspoken anti-slavery activist and a leader in the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_Awakes (who were a big force in opposing slave catching). Fought and died in the Civil War, for the Union.
Let's hope that wirecard was following the rules and the money that should be in their accounts is in the appropriate accounts.
I don't think this will end well, because I don't think any solution can resolve the contradictions inherent in Brexit, but we shall see. Accepting Brexit and "looking forward to seeing the brilliant deal the Prime Minister has assured us we can deliver" is pragmatic and shrewd.
Of course its possible to win with less, but very unlikely without a strong LD surge in Tory areas
1. Win votes in seats you can win. Not piling them up in safe or trophy seats
2. Have the Tories lose votes. You cannot win an election unless the government becomes less popular than it was
3. Have other parties take seats off the Tories. Thats the SNP and LibDems
And so on.
Blair. remember won a clear majority at GE2005 with 35.2% of the national vote.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/26/rebecca-long-baileys-sacking-has-exposed-powerlessness-corbynite/
It won't be as simple as "they'll switch back to Labour". Part of that depends on what Labour nationally and in those locales are saying / doing. Part depends on mood. A bit - so will think some of the newly elected Tory MPs - will depend on what they do. Isn't the reality of things that MPs are laregly the plaything of national politics? You can be an excellent MP with a good local record but fundamentally that won't matter if your party is going down.
This gives the Tories a majority of 26
A further 2% swing from Tory to lab leaves the Tories 11 short of a majority.
The Labour gains are shown here:
Firstly, a lot of people made up their minds a long time ago and aren't going to be changing them. When one looks over Trump's Presidency what is remarkable is how narrow the range in which his popularity rating moves.
Given the historically relatively low number of swing voters, it's hard to see how Biden builds much on the 8-10% lead he has at the moment - it feels quite close to the high water mark.
Looking at the specific target states, there are plenty enough electoral votes in states where Trump won by under 5% to provide Biden with multiple routes to victory. These are Michigan (16 EVs), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), Arizona (11), North Carolina (15). He doesn't need to target more than this, and risks spreading ad spend and so on too thin if he does.
Those plus the odd one EV in Omaha (Nebraska splits its EVs) takes Biden to 334 and Trump to 204 if he hits ALL targets. And there are lots of combos where he misses several of those targets and still wins.
The one additional state he may push seriously for is Georgia (16) as there is a potential Senate pick-up there which may be pivotal for control of Congress. That would take it to 350/188 potentially. But even that is complicated by Georgia's run-off system. If Democrats are competitive but under 50% in either the general or special election there, it'll go to a run-off on 5 January. Only the GOP realistically has the chance to break 50% in November and avoid a run-off.
Biden won't totally ignore Ohio and Texas as it helps pin Trump down in redder states. But Texas doesn't have a highly competitive Senate race and Ohio has none at all. I have serious doubts Biden will commit enough resource to win either. I know that goes against polls showing those states are tight but, as I say, I think Biden's current national lead is near the high water mark and Trump will outspend and outmuscle Biden in these places in the end. On balance, I also don't think it's in Trump's character NOT to spend to save face in these states - I think he'll fall back on them rather than risk the humiliation of a landslide.
On the flip side, the states the Democrats won narrowly in 2016 aren't that delegate rich - New Hampshire (4), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), Maine except ME2 (2). There seems to be little in the polls to suggest any are in play even if the race tightens, and only in Maine is there a case to be made based on the Senate seat (and there it's shaky as Collins will want to keep Trump at arm's length).
I think the last few years have shown that the City is more than just a clearing house for Euro denominated trades as the EU wants to think it is.
I actually think attack is the best form of defence here, we should be the arbiter if equivalence for City compatibility. The money is here, not there.
https://twitter.com/PriyamvadaGopal/status/1276835894067179521?s=19
Headline - 78
7 days - 50 - lots of back dating
Yesterday - 10
He's no coward when it comes to calling out racism and the racists, as this video where he challenges a far-right activist waving the confederate flag shows:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYidtaNwomM
His opinion of the Black Lives Matter protestors (who in other videos steal his microphone and threaten to hit him) is just as forthright:
https://twitter.com/donfolden/status/1276689557530898432
Speaking to some folk at the Uni, I expect that there will be substantial net emigration showing in the student figures over the next couple of years. Possibly even net emigration overall.