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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump drops even further in the WH2020 betting following his l

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,139
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MrEd said:

    Sensible Republicans - of which there are some - should write off the 2016 presidential election and instead should work on two things:

    1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and

    2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.

    Back in the real world, GOP senators are doing worse than Trump in many recent state polls.
    That's not at all surprising. A lot of Trump supporters are suspicious of their GOP Senators, and will not automatically vote for them.
    The whole reason Trump is president is because the "sensible Republicans" as Nabavi calls them are more toxic than he is. The idea you get rid of Trump and people will vote for GOP senators is for the birds.
    It probably doesn't do a huge amount with his base though, who have been suspicious of the Republican establishment. I think attacks like The Lincoln Project just reinforce that narrative for his supporters.


    Ps interesting polling from Michigan - new poll out has Biden only 1 point ahead. That is 2 polls recently with a +1/+2% lead for the Dems in Michigan whereas others have had double digit leads

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

    Trafalgar was the only one to get Michigan right for Trump back in 2016

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Michigan
    Details here

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1275048515408998402?s=20
    Why Trafalgar group was the most accurate pollster in 2016 and 2018 and may be again

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/10/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_does_it_again_138621.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true
    I thought their 2018 senate polling was strictly mediocre .
    Ok, finished the article. What a load of do-hikey. They predicted a 10 point win for Cruz in Texas, he won by 2.5. They predicted a Republican win in Nevada and Arizona. Both Dem wins.

    Their 2018 polling was not great.
    They were the only pollster to correctly predict Trump would win Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016 and also the only pollster to correctly predict DeSantis would win Florida in 2018
    No, Harris also predicted a DeSantis win. And Harper call PA a tie.

    Emphasising their correct calls whilst ignoring their bad misses is the definition of cherry picking.
    A tie is not a win as Trafalgar group predicted for Trump in PA in 2016, it was the only pollster who correctly predicted Trump would win the Electoral College
    Given the margin by which Trump won Harper was more accurate than Trafalgar.

    Trafalgar predicted a 5 point Trump win in Nevada, completely dreadful.
    Trafalgar group predicted Trump would win PA, Harper did not predict he would win PA, Trump won PA, Trafalgar group was correct.

    I repeat, Trafalgar group was the only pollster that correctly predicted Trump would win Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania in 2016 and therefore the Electoral College.

    Even winning Nevada Hillary still lost the EC due to the above states
    Two other pollster predicted Trump in North Carolina off the top of my head, Remimgron and some local TV station IIRC.
    Irrelevant if they also failed to predict Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania as Trafalgar group did
  • DjayMDjayM Posts: 21
    a huge movement on social media to book tickets for the rally and then not turn up. Hence the empty seats. ....... & in your book this translates into a Biden win in November ? Delusional.
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