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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump drops even further in the WH2020 betting following his l
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump drops even further in the WH2020 betting following his less than successful Tulsa rally
This last weekend was going to be the moment when Trump would seriously bounce back in his re-election effort with a mass rally in Tulsa Oklahoma. Unfortunately for him and his team the event proved to be something of a disaster with just over 6k in the 19k seat venue. A second location nearby to deal with the overflow was abandoned when it became clear the numbers weren’t there.
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http://hurryupharry.org/2020/06/21/the-ethnic-minority-test-why-women-like-munira-mirza-are-doomed-to-fail/
On topic - we think things are bad here - the USA is a basket case with really poor choices of leadership available.
It's better to have more people voting for you.
That's it.
And, yet again, a poll which did not ask the ham sandwich question.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-latest-firing-may-have-violated-four-democratic-values/
Only four ?
(Good article, though.)
The cabinet could bump him from the presidency and install Pence, but that still doesn't make Pence the nominee...
Biden is going to have a hell of a job when he wins though. The loony left aren't going to go away just because he has got rid of Trump.
Alright, alright, I'll get me own coat.
A smart one would be a pair of speech bubbles - one showing a charming young lady, and the other saying 'social distancing.' And then you have 'two metre or not to meet 'er?'
Perhaps the old favourite 'health grounds' can be played somehow. It can't be long before he catches Covid.
No jacket retrieval required IMO.
That was pretty good!
Can't remember anything else about it, though.
The GOP did a deal with the devil to keep Hillary out of the White House. They can't unwind that deal now. It's possible that he will quit the ticket anyway but personally I don't think his vanity would permit it.
This bit reminds me of Lindsey Graham's very recent attempt at social distancing from Trump:
...We recently wrote about how the administration’s decision to use chemical agents and rubber bullets on protesters outside the White House violated several democratic values. Key officials involved in that incident now seem to regret it. The firing of Berman may also backfire on Trump. It could embolden more people, including some Republicans, to start criticizing the president for politicizing law enforcement decisions.
Berman’s decision to resist his firing and administration officials’ distancing themselves from the White House protest incident suggest something else that should worry Trump: People in his administration may be reading and believing polls showing him trailing Biden, thinking Trump is likely to lose reelection in November and becoming more unwilling to do questionable things to stay in good standing with a man who may not be president come January.
1. Ensuring the Trump Taint does as little damage as possible to the down-ticket elections, especially the Senate races, and
2. Thinking long and hard about how the party can recover from disaster of nominating Trump in the first place. He's toxified the brand to a degree which is even greater than was obvious in 2016. It's not going to be easy to reverse that.
Would it be a bigger blow to his vanity to walk away "undefeated", or get absolutely mullered by the voters?
This is going to end very badly, as Steve Bannon warned us all.
The GOP is in deep trouble.
The Republicans are stuck with him this cycle, and they know it.
https://twitter.com/guardiannews/status/1275026854479618049?s=20
It was only after Trump won that they became servile lickspittle worms to Trumpism.
Warm Easter weekend. Silent St Bernard.
VE Day parties. Mute Doberman.
Black Lives Matter. Inaudible Great Dane.
It seems you are far more likely to catch this thing by either a) working in a cheap processed meat factor or b) doing Big Religion
Than being outside with lots of people.
One law for the little people, and one law for the New Elite.
It was in the period of the peace process, where SF was refusing to recognise the new Police Service of NI. I paraphrase the conversation to a report thus.
Reporter : "Why don't you recognise the PSNI? It's 50% catholic etc"
SF Councillor : "Any Catholic in the police is a Castle Catholic* and middle class, they aren't anything to do with real Catholics from around here (deprived area) "
Reporter : "What if more people joined the PSNI from around here?"
SF Councillor : "Then they would be Castle Catholics - for joining a police service that doesn't represent Catholics."
*Their version of "Uncle Tom"
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/503834-nascar-noose-found-in-black-driver-bubba-wallaces-garage-stall
This 'aint over by a very long way.
https://twitter.com/howardfineman/status/1274837066724098048
Many of these ads are about making him look like a cry baby
I reckon vs Trump both would walk the Rust Belt and the ham sarnie would have a serious shot at Florida. Put mustard on it and Texas would fall.
Onlylivingboy said
' Keeping Corbyn in place was a mistake, I think. The electorate don't like being offered something they've already said no to. I think it's reasonable to expect that Labour will form the government after the next election, although an outright majority remains a big ask without a lot of Scottish seats. '
The electorate has often changed its mind about leaders it initially rejected. Having said 'No' to Churchill in 1945 - and 1950 - it welcomed him back in 1951. Heath was rejected decisively in 1966 - yet won a clear majority in 1970.After being defeated in 1970, Wilson returned to office in March 1974.
Cameron would have been the better. Despite the reputation for liking a chillax, he was always on top of his red box.
Of course you could have got a spike, and it was a risk but it was very unlikely to be observable from the numbers.
It didn;t turn out that way.
I still think some of the discontent with Trump is discontent with life. 20-plus million Americans have lost their jobs.
But we shall see.
1) Vote for the person who promises change but wasn't in power
2) the person who promises change yet has been in power for the past 4 yeats
3) the person who blames your predicament on the person who has been in power for the past 4 yeats.
In 2016, Trump was option 1 he is now option 2 and option 3 will be used to attack him.
Some repubs clearly furious at what they see as their representatives rolling over to BLM.
The economists want 1 metre
BoZo picked neither
May's instincts are always to do the later.
- Government retains 2m - "Stupid government destroys business"
- Government reduces to 1.5m - "Evil government sacrifices working class ito economy"
etc etc...
It is very hard to make up your mind if you opponents haven't don't it for you.
I mean, if you have to actually say what you think *now* you might end up agreeing with your opponent. Which is unthinkable.
However, any alternative PM would have had to big advantages over BoJo. One is being around, physically and mentally in late February. That's when the decisions ought to have been taken; after that the UK was always going to be in catch up mode.
The other is that Boris's biases- especially to libertarianism and optimism- led him up the garden path in this case. Even if he was following duff advice, the fact that it matched his prejudices must have affected his willingness to ask some pretty obvious questions.
If there's a resurgence, I'd expect the restrictions imposed to be far more directed.
For example, re-closing the non-essential shops, requiring facemasks in essential shops, work from home or only go to an essential job, can go outside as much as you like, stay 2 metres apart outside and indoors (the latter with masks), allow bubbles to remain, allow takeaways to stay open, allow professional sport to continue in empty stadia subject to frequent covid-19 testing, and so forth.
Nigel_Foremain said
'The reason why Corbyn did comparatively well in 2017 was because no one seriously thought he would win. Everyone was predicting a TMay landslide and Corbyn almost got in by accident. His comparative success was an amateurish fluke and nothing else. '
That is really a myth in terms of what polls were predicting in the final ten days of the 2017 campaign. It was very true of the first month or so after May's election announcement on 18th April, but by early June there were many polls showing Tory leads in the range of 1% - 5% - which did suggest a serious possibility of a Hung Parliament. Some of us on here also did point out at the time that such leads implied a rather bigger swing to Labour in England & Wales than indicated by the headline GB data - given that the Tories were clearly enjoying a surge in Scotland.
The Spectator often has fairly funny cartoons and my main reason for occasionally buying Private Eye are that they do too. Other than the Telegraph with Matt, I’m not sure who else does consistently: the ones in The New Statesman normally leave me cold for instance.
Non essential retail, pubs, restaurants are definitely in the 'choice' retail/service so idk, maybe 1 metre for side side, 1.5 for forward-back ?
Trump draws his support principally from bigots and racists. They are frustrated that there is no publicly acceptable outlet for their views. Trump appeals to them, largely through dog-whistles and by pushing the boundaries. His language stops just short of the outright illegal, but it's enough to signal that he's their man.
GOP Senators who are not prepared to go down this route, and there are plenty of them, are regarded with suspicion and may as well be Democrats as far as Trump's supporters are concerned.
He is going to announce 1m plus, which is neither 1m nor 2m
Why dementia and Covid are such a deadly combination
Special report: Dementia and Alzheimer’s were the most common pre-existing conditions found among deaths involving coronavirus in April
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/body/dementia-covid-deadly-combination/