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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Perhaps pollsters should start weighting for those who have had Covid-19 or know someone who has had from Covid-19
Death rates in the 44 'blue wall' seats in the North and Midlands are higher than the national average – a fact that is making local MPs nervous pic.twitter.com/26C6crjLky
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(I suspect likely to increase when the Brexit shit hits the fan)
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1274683500667469824
Sources have said he was known to officers, and previously spent at least 12 months in jail for various assaults - he was jailed in December last year after assaulting a Sainsbury's security guard.
It is thought he was being supervised by the National Probation Service, which monitors high risk offenders.
Usually asylum seekers convicted in the UK would be deported, but the suspect remained here due to conflict in Libya.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11916773/reading-attack-terror-cops-confirm/
SO called it last night on here, looking again like the now common backstory, small time criminal, prison, comes out, commits shocking terrorist act (with evidence of mental health issues).
Saor Alba
Surely not, we've been told that uncertainty due to existing Brexit shit, Covid-19 and impending financial armageddon is mortally damaging the case for independence. It's going to kick in anytime now I believe.
On a steady upwards trajectory
The longer Westminster refuses the better.
Predict the penny is about to drop en masse so anybody who wants to lay him at a 2 handle price should act quite soon.
I'm more surprised that separation has not been showing strong polling leads since the Brexit vote. Speaks to the robustness of the Unionist vote if it can hold up under what is widely portrayed as a the crudest of crude English Brexiteer Government of posh buffoons serving up a dog's dinner of a Brexit.
Into the unknown future by a wafer thin majority, out of the UK, not in the EU, out of the pound, outside English subsidy, loaded down with unrepayable debt, oil going out of fashion and all the population used to getting everything free. What could possibly......
If not - by the time you get it can you win it?
I'd call that cancel culture, culture war, etc.
What debt would that be, can you name any country that got out from under the yoke who ever had any debt applied to them, even Cameron admitted last time that Scotland had NO debt. I doubt they will want to give us 10% of all English worldwide assets. We could start b&B in our part of Buckingham palace and Houses of parliament. As has been said many times we would be back in EU in a heartbeat.
I did a Yougov at the end of the week that did ask questions about whether anyone that I knew closely had died of covid-19, as well as quite extensive questions on voting, party favourability, perceptions of parties etc.
So @TSE may get his question answered very shortly.
My take has always been, is there a clear consistent pattern of behaviour, online and offline. One stupid tweet or liking one is here nor there. e.g. Jared O'Mara case for instance was shown not only to send lots of nasty tweets, in person his behaviour was if anything worse.
It wouldn't be my preference, however it would be nice for it to happen on Johnson's watch, so the history books rightly reward him as the Prime Minister who undertook the destruction of the United Kingdom.
But are we 100% sure that footage is from yesterday? The Lincoln Project source it to the Hill, but I couldn't find it at the latter's site.
Before the release of Mary Trump's book on 28 July, he is bound to have a Tulsa infection story to deal with. The way he boasted about ordering the slowing of testing was repulsive. He conjured up the image of a 10-year-old boy who had "the sniffles" and who would recover within "15 minutes" but who still counted as a Covid-19 case. Trump seemed to have no clue that those who test positive and who are outside high-risk groups can still infect others.
Oh, people have had other things on their minds - but there has been a shift and a loosening. And, also, therte have been very, very few polls (at least published).
That's some achievement!
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Malcolmg might try 1.1, 1,2 and 1.3 of this:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/270643/uk_debt_and_the_Scotland_independence_referendum.pdf
"This was a horrific incident, our thoughts and our hearts go out to all those affected, particularly the family and friends of those who tragically died," he said.
"I think across Reading, across the country, people are united in their grief at this incident.”
"It’s very important that the investigation runs its course, but I will want to work with the government in response to this, to look at whether there’s lessons that can be learned, whether there need to be changes to the law.
"This is not a time for party politics."
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This seems to be the standard Starmer response / tactic to incidents, but we know when it gets down to brass tax, if for instance Boris said he will make it easier / faster to remove asylum seekers who have committed crimes*, he won't be so cooperative.
* not saying I agree with this, but it wouldn't be surprising is Mrs Patel's response would be this. In fact, I think by coincidence she did a piece in the Mail today saying just this.
Last 7 days of deaths from NHS England hospital figures
As to when we get it, I don't see the slightest possibility of the UK slumping back into comfortable somnolence, which is what I presume the HYUFDs of this world hope will happen if only they can keep their spoiling act going for long enough. I see the so called Culture War as actually a frenzy of self doubt about English identity. It's only at the 'I don't even know who we are anymore' stage so loads of high jinks yet to come.
No wonder he asked his people to slow the testing rates down.
MPs told the Sunday Times that the reliance on such data meant that Downing Street was reacting rather than giving 'leadership'.
Public First began a year-long £840,000 contract to conduct virtual focus groups at the beginning of March, according to the Sunday Times.
Another focus group specialist, Britain Thinks, founded by Gordon Brown's pollster Deborah Mattinson, is said to have secured a contract with the Department of Health last year.
The company is expected to start a £2million deal with the Department for Transport shortly, as it struggles to manage disquiet about using public transport and aviation.
Another major pollster, Kantar, reportedly secured a 'Covid-urgent' £705,000 contract with the Cabinet Office for 'social research services' between April and October.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8444427/Tory-unrest-Boris-Johnsons-government-focus-group.html
Malcolmg might try 1.1, 1,2 and 1.3 of this:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/270643/uk_debt_and_the_Scotland_independence_referendum.pdf
Did you try reading it, subject to negotiation and would mean that assets would also transfer so 10% of all England owns would also transfer, including Trident all military equipment , foreign assets, embassies , museums , artefacts and on and on, etc. Pull the other leg it plays a tune.
Do not collaborate, I beseech you.
https://twitter.com/SueSusan706/status/1274601122532077569?s=20
https://twitter.com/SueSusan706/status/1274604591259287552?s=20
I believe I have this logic correct employed by those most keen to cancel others. Or is this like statues, ones of my team are good (no matter what bad they did), statues of the other team are bad (no matter what good they did).
This was oh about seven months ago.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1274692294218788867
Take Katie Hopkins. A sort of right wing equivalent to Ash on the politics but with a truly nasty persona. If she got death threats and people were to weigh in with "lol - you reap what you sow", I would be on her side on that one not theirs. Do I really mean that? Hmm, let me self-audit. Yes. Yes, I truly think I would be.
Anyway, it's not about you - you will carry on posting as you do - I just want to stop people listening when it comes to this "culture war" stuff. Not cancel you, you understand, just muffle you a bit.
I have little chance of course.
Whatever she is, she does not deserve death threats.
And even if for some obscure reason she did, then it is hard to imagine why she should receive them for posting a photo of herself eating a lollipop.
I mean, come on.
Apparently the teaching unions are attempting to stop the return of Welsh schools despite the best efforts of the heads, teachers, pta and parents
In a time of national crisis they are actively being disruptive
For every day Johnson remains Prime Minister support for the Union in Scotland diminishes.
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Interesting point, well made.
One of the many sad things about this whole farce is that I suspect Nikki Haley has now missed her chance of being President.
Let's start calling this crap out.
The government is making noises about teachers working over the summer, backed by that idiot Adonis.
But they cannot, because contracts clearly state teachers are contracted to work 190 days a year.
So they are trying to guilt trip teachers into working extra-contractually because it makes good headlines in The Daily Wail, and blaming the unions for saying contract law should be followed.
As it happens, I personally would have no objection to working over the summer, as I have said many times. However, I would expect to be paid for it.
Absolutely Sarkar is a bit of a nutter and a race-baiter; that is irrelevant.
Germany riot: Gangs smash shops and attack police in Stuttgart
Police president Frank Lutz suggested the situation had become more tense over the past three to four weeks. What he described as people from the "party and event scene" in Stuttgart had been getting drunk in public and adopted an aggressive and insulting tone towards police on social media.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53126464
That doesn’t make it any the less whataboutery.
We know about Ash Sarkar, and that she is an extremist, and not a nice person.
No way does that have any link to what has just happened.
It’s not the unions, it’s government incompetence.
Two men have died in a shooting after a lockdown party of "hundreds of people".
Police were called to reports that gun shots had been heard in Caythorpe Street in Moss Side, Manchester, at about 01:00 BST.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-53125627
Were the illegal raves of the 90s this violent?
CNN’s Jake Tapper clashed with Navarro in an interview on “State of the Union,” in which the White House official leveled accusations that China may have purposefully spawned the virus.
“Did you say China created this virus, did I hear you wrong,” Tapper asked Navarro.
“You did not hear me wrong,” Navarro responded.
The Hill
I follow Jones unlike (I sense) many on here and I can assure you the vast majority of his output is simply arguing the metropolitan left position on the issues of the day. And he does it well.
It is utter chaos. One of my grandsons friends has been given times to go back this month, others haven't including my grandson, and the unions are the problem
Sarkar is a fairly prominent cog in the wheels at Novara Media; enough said.
It remains that online threats are unacceptable.
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Interesting point, well made.
Thank you and I bet the assets would cost them a lot more than getting 10% of the debt over an extended period of never, ie just some interest payments every year.
They haven’t.
Again, don’t look too far for the real culprit.
Anyway, I’m getting worked up and I have a busy day tomorrow. I have a subscription to Sky, taken out this afternoon after spending a day writing reports, and I intend to enjoy myself watching some box sets.
Have a good afternoon.
Culture war warriors from the neo-nazi far right took it upon themselves, in large numbers, to pile on alleging that she was celebrating the (yet to take place) Reading murders and calling for her to be killed, raped and so on. If you don't believe me, read the original thread - they even imagined that the orange lolly in the picture was symbolic of Libya, and three orange symbols in the motif symbolised and celebrated the murdered. The abuse she received for an innocent picture was horrific.
I'm no fan of Ash Sarkar at all - she damages my side of politics sometimes - but she has never called for violence against others.
Yet again, Eadric and others seek to inflame a culture war that has been ignited by far right elements determined to exacerbate racial tensions. You couldn't make it up.
Sarkar is a chod.
Owen is a chod, but less than Sarkar