Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Bla
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Blair – so why isn’t LAB ahead?
It is fair to say that Keir Starmer has made a positive start to life as Labour leader. Our latest figures from the Ipsos MORI political monitor show that 51% of the British public are satisfied with the job Starmer is doing, 20% are dissatisfied and 29% don’t know.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/11/uk-secularism-on-rise-as-more-than-half-say-they-have-no-religion
Religion was going out of fashion long before Covid.
Fifty-two percent of the public say they do not belong to any religion, compared with 31% in 1983 when the BSA survey began tracking religious belief. The number of people identifying as Christian has fallen from 66% to 38% over the same period.
I think its important to look at the approvals rather than the nets somewhat given the propensity to vote for third parties in this country. People who are against any potential leader of a party aren't switching, people who are indifferent likely aren't either unless they really dislike the other one.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/53096584
Boris can't help himself. He gives a reasonable response i.e. focus on actual discrimination in society today, but can't help then making a joke about people not knowing the words.
Plus he has been very IDS over Iraq about obsequious support of the government. If he had gone out on a limb about apps or tracing or earlier lockdown or virtually anything they have done, he'd now look like a genius.
England Regional case data by specimen day
For interest - 79 of 316 Lower Tier Local Authorities have reported 0 cases in the last 7 days.
To be fair, with experience and more exposure the frontbench team will no doubt improve. Nonetheless, Starmer could do with making a few forensic cuts. I'd suggest ditching RL-B would be a good start.
I think Starmer is to some extent benefitting from not being Corbyn. I'm tempted to say that Labour have jumped straight from Foot to Blair, but actually I think Starmer is quite left-wing. Alastair Campbell was correct to say that we need to wait and see what Starmer presents to the country. Plenty of time for that, but it will be interesting to see what sorts of things Starmer proposes.
I think Labour will be perfectly happy with the polling so far, it was always going to be Starmer making the leadership a positive, then pulling the party along after. Definitely not a 6 month project.
I find that astonishing and a lay at 3.25 is great value.
Nevertheless, the public don't really know him yet so it remains to be seen whether they will decide to stick or twist.
Starmer is an intellectual collossus compared to Kinnock. Neil didn't have the spectre of the post-Covid and post Brexit economy in his corner either.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1273990168962351109?s=20
IF LABOUR DON'T SCREW IT UP.
(which means they have to be pragmatic, moderate and mainstream)
For whatever reason English voters prefer an English leader.
Both Kinnock and Brown were derided in many instances because of this.
John Smith less so and Blair was seen as English.
Also to become leader of the opposition in 5 years is impressive as is his backstory.
We are also told that politicians who have never done anything else are out of touch.
SKS has had an an impressive career outside of politics.
He is a breath of fresh air in comparison to our current leader and the leader of the USA.
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/jun/ucl-denames-buildings-named-after-eugenicists
So I suppose that's Shaw, the Webbs & JM Keynes next then?
https://twitter.com/RossPolitics/status/1274001033480548352
https://m.facebook.com/100000405926140/posts/3216789225011243/?d=w
Duplication. deleted.
So there are two ways of looking at this. One is that Kinnock, having inherited a demoralised, divided, bankrupt and intellectually exhausted party that had just polled its lowest share of the vote in the age of universal suffrage, fought a pragmatic, intelligent eight year campaign that added 63 seats to its parliamentary strength and through intelligent targeting and highly efficient tactical voting brought off a very near miss;
OR
Ultimately, for all his success in seats he still had little success in broadening his party’s appeal in terms of votes, which limited his options and ultimately left him unable to form a government.
R L-B had to be given a job as runner-up for the leadership, really. Given that she is up against the nonentity Gavin Williamson, if she doesn't outperform him I would expect Starmer to dispense with her services after a year or so.
I don't think he needs to do anything like that yet - The Tories have already talked about levelling up, major infrastructure spending, and even a green revolution. We've got a recession coming up and Brexit to go through, and then hopefully forget. I'd suggest any big idea right now, might just get lost in the noise.
Labour's vision needs to come later - and in four years time they may not even need one.
"Bolton claimed that during a 2018 phone call Erdoğan sent Trump a memo insisting that the scandal-hit Halkbank was innocent. 'Trump then told Erdoğan he would take care of things, explaining that the [New York] southern district prosecutors were not his people but were Obama people, a problem that would be fixed when they were replaced by his people,' Bolton wrote.
Bloomberg has reported that in April 2019, Trump instructed Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and Attorney General William Barr to address Erdoğan’s request that Halkbank avoid charges.
Halkbank, one of Turkey’s largest banks, has been under investigation by US prosecutors since a Turkish inquiry in 2013 found it was used to launder up to $20bn in a scheme to evade US sanctions on Iran. High-ranking Turkish officials allegedly exported gold to Tehran via the UAE in return for Iranian oil and gas.
(...) Two men with close ties to Erdoğan’s inner circle – Reza Zarrab, a flamboyant Turkish-Iranian businessman, and Mehmet Atilla, Halkbank’s deputy chief executive – have been sentenced to jail time in the US.
(...) The case has shed light on the strong ties between Turkey and the Trump administration: Zarrab, who led a tabloid lifestyle of pop stars, yachts and cars and worked out of Istanbul’s Trump Tower, asked the former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani to represent him in 2016, shortly before Giuliani became the president’s attorney."
I am probably alone in thinking one of the main differences between now and Kinnock's era, is we have a Prime Minister who could quite possibly toxify the Conservative brand beyond Corbyn Labour levels.
We know it can infect most of a population from outbreaks in limited environments infecting most of their population, so it's highly unlikely to be that it can only infect a small proportion of us (and that wouldn't explain a long lying-in-wait period, anyway).
So - what if R encompasses a variability from low (flu-like 1.2-1.4, or even lower) for most people, but spiked with superspreaders getting Rs of 20+ and bringing the average up to around 3? That is - the virus finds it hard to spread under normal conditions, but when all the holes in the cheese line up, it can go full-tilt? Someone who has a lengthy presymptomatic-but-infectious period, meets lots of people for prolonged times, lots of indoor stuff with lots of talking, and happens to have a very high virus load can infect a load of people, but "normally", with outdoor interactions and/or short interactions, meeting fewer people, shorter infectious periods and so on all adding up to push things down.
It would imply that you probably need multiple reinforcing superspreader events to cause it to explode, but when you do, it can burn steadily with the lower-R people and have far more opportunities to find more superspreaders to get the exponential boost.
But, thanks to limiting opportunities and with few enough people being infectious at any one time, if you have the level low enough, the probabilities of getting multiple superspreaders lined up at the right time in the right place are low enough that you'll usually avoid them.
Of course, this appeals to me because it implies that having got infections low enough, we merely need enough restrictions to limit possibilities of superspreaders reinforcing each other (I'm not remotely suggesting that abandoning all restrictions would be a good idea; just targeting them carefully to avoid what we know of superspreader events and conditions). I don't know how to confirm that thought, though.
https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1274005489811062784
Well, it depends of course on what you mean by Scottish. You could include Macmillan and Baldwin in that list if you wanted to stretch the criteria a bit. Blair, certainly. But I don’t think a Scottish PM sitting for a Scottish seat has won a general election since World War Two. In that time Home and Brown are the only two Scots I can think of anyway who meet that criteria. Smith of course almost certainly would have won an election had he not died.
Even before World War Two the picture isn’t rosy. MacDonald was Scottish of course, bat sat for Seaham in the only general election he won. Asquith by contrast sat for North East Fife, but was a Yorkshireman. Campbell-Bannerman meets the criteria, and Rosebery was a Scottish peer. Balfour was Scottish, but as PM sat for a seat in Manchester and as Leader of the Opposition for the City of London.
I’ve got to give this to Yorkcity, he seems to be right.
TBH, Kinnock grated irrespective of one's nationality.
https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1273871427654037504
In many ways I preferred his dour image in helping the less well of in society.Even by trying to hide tax increases from the mainstream view, to the Blair brashness.
Fast forward to 2019. Corbyn was so ghastly that many people couldn't bring themselves to vote for him, even if it was the best/only way to Stop Boris. So a small increase in Conservative votes became a big increase in seats. Who knows how and when, indeed if, that will unwind.
4 9 8 4 4 4 7 6 2 0
Blair's formative years were in Scotland, no matter how hard you try and deny it.
No LotO has become PM since IPSOS-MORI started their leader image ratings in 1978 without leading on personality, and Boris leads Starmer 64-30
If cases that is truly miniscule.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26082372
https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeToons/status/128878775902552064/photo/1
Last 10 days of deaths for SW
0 0 2 2 2 0 1 1 0 0
https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1274005174466600960?s=20
Now normally, there are very few Victorian baronial mansions you could ever get me to say a bad word about, but this one: https://www.flickr.com/photos/13768018@N05/1404022253 is properly hideous.