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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump is said to be obsessed with the polls and the news for him has been getting worse
With Trump’s poll ratings having taken a nasty shock the President has decided to hold his first big rally in month in Tulsa, Oklahoma next week. The venue looks odd given that the state is one of the most rock solid Republican you can find and it is hard to see any political gain in going there. Perhaps that is the point. He wants to go to an area where he knows he will be given an overwhelmingly friendly welcome and maybe that will boost his morale.
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Even if Biden had a 30 point lead in the polls I wouldn't want to take anything for granted. Like a proverbial monster in a horror movie, we can't take it on faith that Trump won't rise and strike again.
Not taking anything for granted until the results are in.
Donald doing a Hillary?
What they need is a few engineers. Apply some rules of thumb, order of magnitude estimates and 'sniff test' reviews.
We would have locked down in 5 minutes.
The date he has chosen - "Juneteenth" - is the date the final slaves got emancipated.
While Tulsa is the site of the worst modern violent incident against African Americans where 99 years ago at the start of June was the location of the Tulsa Race Massacre.
Picking that combination for his rally during these charged times could be a coincidence, or it might not be.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsa_race_massacre
"mobs of white residents attacked black residents and businesses of the Greenwood District in Tulsa, Oklahoma. It has been called the single worst incident of racial violence in American history."
I see they beheaded Christopher Columbus' statue the other day.
https://twitter.com/jwgop/status/1270825281264197632
If Texas ever does too then it would be incredible.
Looks like the COVID has plunged the thing into complete chaos, the results in many cases are not known.
https://twitter.com/P14Murray/status/1271052242637017088?s=20
I'd actually never heard of the massacre before, but thought it was worth googling Tulsa then that info came up.
Seems like trump (or the people behind him) are throwing grenades into the bonfire at this point. I wouldn't want to be in America for the next six months that's for sure.
Dodgy statues surely are a no-no
I really hope people are better than that and don't vote on such racial lines come November.
Why would Black Lives Matter care about them?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-34265882
What exactly do you think aligns me with him? Or are you so obsessed with Brexit you can't see past that and think all Brexiteers are the same?
Should scientific advisors be more worldly wise? I don't know, but the fact that ours weren't has resulted in a disaster.
Con gain
Some of Trump's vote has gone to undecided therefore rather than Biden.
Trump is going to Oklahoma apparently as it has a very low number of Covid cases and is solid Trump so he wants to start by firing up and shoring up his base
I believe in a small state doing as little as possible and as close to the people as possible.
I believe people are better than bureaucrats in deciding how to run the lives or businesses and believe the public should make their own decisions on how to run their lives.
I believe in low taxes, low expenditure, and the Laffer Curve.
I believe all people should have the same opportunities, not the same outcomes.
I believe that race, religion, gender, sexual orientation etc should not mark the individual and that people should not be judged by these but what they choose to do as individuals.
I believe in consistency in the rule of law and with taxation etc
I believe that people should not cause harm to others.
Trump is a race-baiting, big spending authoritarian who sides with white supremacists. He is everything I oppose. What exactly do you think I have in common with him?
https://twitter.com/Shobbs2/status/1271059060444585989?s=19
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flag
What did Harding do that Trump hasn't?
Many slave owners did not participate in the war.
I think some think they can sympathise with the bravery of the ordinary soldier of the South whilst still disagreeing with the cause??
Consider someone from West Virginia flying it....
There was a tank named Cromwell in WW2, and Churchill wanted to name a warship after the Lord Protector - IIRC the King expressed his dissatisfaction.
Mind the British did name US-produced tank after Lee and Stuart - but made up for it with the Grant and Sherman.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_rankings_of_presidents_of_the_United_States
There is a surprising amount of agreement amongst the experts and the pollsters. Not surprisingly, Washington and Lincoln score consistently well: Harding, Buchanan and Andrew Johnson do badly.
Trump hasn't got enough form to go on but early indications are that he will be jostling Harding et al for a place at the bottom.
It w And bringing the infection rate up to the national average?
Levelling up.
The issue here is with the bad advice, our experts have been found out. They are nowhere near as good as they claim, their European counterparts have performed better on every occasion. We need to find out why that is because the UK is one of the most scientifically advanced nations globally in terms of research and development, we produce more science graduates and have more funded places for PhDs than any other European country. Why is that translating to such poor advice to the government? Why are we not attracting the right voices to the advisory bodies as they have done in Germany?
This is the root cause of the issue and there's no doubt that a more scientifically literate civil service or politicians would have been a big help, I don't think the advice would have been very different.
In my area of expertise (data) the government data analysis is so very far behind the tech and banking industry it's become a joke. Some of the internal data modelling we're doing at work on this exceeds the government's own main data analysis by a huge factor, it seems as though the government is scared of making the line by line dataset publicly available as their analysis will be shown up in about three days by tech companies as being severely lacking.
Another area where we have experts on PB (app building) the government have again shown themselves to be hugely lacking and now we're well behind schedule for test, track and trace, so much so that the strategy has become test and trace because we have a complete inability to track.
Our experts are pants, the UK establishemebt has been proved to be as useless as so many of us realised during the first round of brexit negotiations.
What he did of course for parliamentary democracy meanwhile is not in doubt.
At this point in the race you have to go back as far as Jimmy Carter in 1976 to find someone in a strong a position challenging an incumbent president.
Actually there probably are.
https://twitter.com/sangerkatz/status/1270703905144537092
I'm actually surprised to find Zog is back in business. Who pays them? Don't think anybody takes them too seriously.
Harding I think is unfortunate to be judged for his affair (which I couldn't care less about), his premature death and what was revealed about the corruption of others following his death in what was a very corrupt era following the Volstadt Act. As far as I know Harding wasn't himself corrupt was he?
Andrew Jackson wholeheartedly deserves his reputation for the Trail of Tears - one of America's darkest moments.
Trump to me is worse than Harding and Buchanan but not yet at Jackson levels.
Its also a poor parallel because the southern soldiers were mostly simply that. Soldiers. There was a striking lack of einsatzgruppen and SS divisions in their midst. A striking lack of NKVD too, for that matter.
I'm not for flying the flag of the south. I'm just wondering why so many ordinary Americans didn't have a problem with it.
If he’d done that virtually anywhere else at the time he’d have been tortured and killed.
It’s a remark on the morality of the British (who were still very far from perfect) at the time that he was able to end its empire in India in the 1930s and 1940s in the way he did.
[Edit: but I take your point you're not waving the Confederate flag for them, so to speak.]