A deadly pandemic, a collapsing economy, failing Brexit trade talks, a severe drought, an escalating culture war ... what a time to have a bone idle, lying, charlatan, his psychopathic, unaccountable “adviser” and a cabinet of third-rate incompetents in charge of things.
A deadly pandemic, a collapsing economy, failing Brexit trade talks, a severe drought, an escalating culture war ... what a time to have a bone idle, lying, charlatan, his psychopathic, unaccountable “adviser” and a cabinet of third-rate incompetents in charge of things.
Reports this morning that BoZo needs Trump to win because he is worried Biden is not "Brexity" enough and would rather do deals with other EU nations.
Also the NHS stockpiles have been completely depleted by Covid, and there are none left for no deal.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
Exactly. The passenger from NZ sat between two others from Mexico is just as likely to be infected.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
I don't know how everyone will vote, but it was an educated prediction (which is what this site is about) and furthermore I used the word approximately - I take it you know what the word approximately means?
So give it a half a dozen either way. That is (66,650,000 - 6) still a fantastic level of accuracy. Can't wait for that spreadsheet.
No spreadsheet, I wasn't talking about individuals you tried to take it there not me.
We're barely a week or two from this leaving the news headlines and already the only people bringing this up unprompted are the obsessive cranks who hated him before last year's election. Give it another 4 years and that'll be even more the case.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site not for political analysis, oh no, but for political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
You can copy and prepare for paste “Minister really struggling“. That’ll be in frequent use until 2024.
Are there *any* competent ministers in the Johnson government? I’ve not spotted any yet.
....he wasn't exactly a Denis Healey either.
What's that rhyming slang for ? I don't recognise it.
I was thinking of Denis Healey as one of the most powerful, capable and significant Chancellors of the last fifty years. The other options I considered were Lawson, Brown and Clarke but I decided Healey was probably ahead of them.
And no, that's not to say everything on his record was rosy. But that's true of every Chancellor since 1970 except Iain Macleod, who died after just a month in office so it would be rather difficult to draw conclusions.
I'd agree with that (though I'd be tempted to put Clarke at the top).
But we need more rhyming slang, nonetheless. Hurd and Hunt just aren't sufficient.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
If they’re all flying from a country with no known COVID cases and don’t meet anyone enroute what’s the problem?
In any case with the UK’s COVID rate no one with a low rate is going to be opening their border to us.
The problem is we're trying to prevent the virus getting back into the country after we eliminate it.
What's the problem with that?
The U.K. haven’t eliminated the virus, it would have made sense to have selective bans from those countries with higher infection rates than the U.K. It looks like gesture politics to satisfy the ‘something must be done’ constituency.
A deadly pandemic, a collapsing economy, failing Brexit trade talks, a severe drought, an escalating culture war ... what a time to have a bone idle, lying, charlatan, his psychopathic, unaccountable “adviser” and a cabinet of third-rate incompetents in charge of things.
It is certainly a baptism of fire in the truest sense.
Statue ethics - I'm probably not alone in having no idea who 95% of the statues that I see represent, so starting point is that I don't care. If someone is widely admired by some and hated by others (Lenin in Ukraine seems a good example, and arguably Thatcher is too, but not Churchill), it seems fair to move the statue to somewhere out of the way where people who were fond of them can go and see it without winding up the others - putting the statue in a derisive theme park is trolling, though. Where the statue commemorates people now universally seen as disreputable - Jimmy Saville's elaborate gravestone for instance - then removal seems best. Arguably a slaver who later gave money to charity is in the second category, not the first.
The issue of direct action vs democratic process is separate, and I'm usually not keen on the former, but I won't get worked up about a hunk of stone.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
I don't know how everyone will vote, but it was an educated prediction (which is what this site is about) and furthermore I used the word approximately - I take it you know what the word approximately means?
So give it a half a dozen either way. That is (66,650,000 - 6) still a fantastic level of accuracy. Can't wait for that spreadsheet.
No spreadsheet, I wasn't talking about individuals you tried to take it there not me.
We're barely a week or two from this leaving the news headlines and already the only people bringing this up unprompted are the obsessive cranks who hated him before last year's election. Give it another 4 years and that'll be even more the case.
I was trying to take it there? This is from you saying the number of people who would change their vote would be "approximately zero". You took it there.
You and whoever the other poster is just now are displaying an enviable level of political acuity.
How about, the people who care about Cummings is small, but the number of people who will be moved by the resulting Lab attack line "one law for them" will be significantly bigger?
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
Just popped back in for a mo, and had the amusing irony of seeing that Philip Thompson, the man who seems to have nothing to do in his life except rant on PB (often incoherently) call others "losers". Philip, please try and get a life, you are no position to call anyone a loser.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
If they’re all flying from a country with no known COVID cases and don’t meet anyone enroute what’s the problem?
In any case with the UK’s COVID rate no one with a low rate is going to be opening their border to us.
The problem is we're trying to prevent the virus getting back into the country after we eliminate it.
What's the problem with that?
The U.K. haven’t eliminated the virus, it would have made sense to have selective bans from those countries with higher infection rates than the U.K. It looks like gesture politics to satisfy the ‘something must be done’ constituency.
The UK is getting close to eliminating the virus.
Quarantine while the virus was circulating and there was no passenger travel certainly would have been gesture politics. Doing so after the virus has been defeated domestically but not globally yet is a different matter.
If it screws with your holiday plans then tough shit. Don't have a holiday then. Plans much greater than holidays have been screwed with this year.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
You can copy and prepare for paste “Minister really struggling“. That’ll be in frequent use until 2024.
Are there *any* competent ministers in the Johnson government? I’ve not spotted any yet.
....he wasn't exactly a Denis Healey either.
What's that rhyming slang for ? I don't recognise it.
I was thinking of Denis Healey as one of the most powerful, capable and significant Chancellors of the last fifty years. The other options I considered were Lawson, Brown and Clarke but I decided Healey was probably ahead of them.
And no, that's not to say everything on his record was rosy. But that's true of every Chancellor since 1970 except Iain Macleod, who died after just a month in office so it would be rather difficult to draw conclusions.
I'd agree with that (though I'd be tempted to put Clarke at the top).
But we need more rhyming slang, nonetheless. Hurd and Hunt just aren't sufficient.
Does Raab C. Brexit qualify? (the Scots name for Mr D. R., of course).
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
You said "approximately zero". I took that to mean a half a dozen. What is the range of "approximately zero" as you see it then?
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
Exactly. The passenger from NZ sat between two others from Mexico is just as likely to be infected.
They won’t be sat between two others from Mexico because NZ has closed its borders to all non resident foreigners and if the Mexicans are resident they’ll have had compulsory government run quarantine when they arrived in NZ.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
Just popped back in for a mo, and had the amusing irony of seeing that Philip Thompson, the man who seems to have nothing to do in his life except rant on PB (often incoherently) call others "losers". Philip, please try and get a life, you are no position to call anyone a loser.
Talking politics on a political forum is a hobby of mine.
Repeatedly coming on to a political forum, to attack other people who are on the political forum, for posting about politics on a political forum - that's more than a tad weird.
I take it the PB racists who object to the toppling of Colston also objected to the toppling of Saddam or Lenin?
What an utterly stupid and insulting comment. I’m surprised at you.
There is a big - and important - difference between objecting to a statue being torn down because you approve of slavery and want to honour a slave trader (I can’t think of anyone on here who falls into that category but no doubt, if you have that evidence, you will name names rather than making blanket accusations of racism) and objecting because you don’t think decisions to remove statues should be made by mobs causing criminal damage and apparently contrary to the decision of the local community.
There is also a big - and important - difference between doing so in a democracy and doing so in an authoritarian state where there has been no democracy.
If a minority thinks they have no power and are ignored by the majority then no, there is no difference between doing so in a democracy and doing so in an authoritarian state.
Standing up to "tyranny of the majority" is a key element of civil disorder through the ages in democratic states.
Bristol Council = Labour Bristol Mayor = Labour
Bit like Minneapolis.
Labour are shit.
Not sure what your point is. I most certainly don't support Labour.
Merely pointing out that when places are said to be suffering 'tyranny' or 'oppression' they also seem to have been under the political control of left wing parties for decades.
Not a coincidence. The left wing parties aren't liberal.
Leftist middle classes have a lifestyle dependent upon exploiting the poor and and a political mindset dependent upon the exploitation of the grievances of the poor.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
I wouldn't expect places that have eradicated the rona to rely on this but it seems to be very unusual to get infected on a plane, probably for reasons related to airflow etc.
I take it the PB racists who object to the toppling of Colston also objected to the toppling of Saddam or Lenin?
What an utterly stupid and insulting comment. I’m surprised at you.
There is a big - and important - difference between objecting to a statue being torn down because you approve of slavery and want to honour a slave trader (I can’t think of anyone on here who falls into that category but no doubt, if you have that evidence, you will name names rather than making blanket accusations of racism) and objecting because you don’t think decisions to remove statues should be made by mobs causing criminal damage and apparently contrary to the decision of the local community.
There is also a big - and important - difference between doing so in a democracy and doing so in an authoritarian state where there has been no democracy.
If a minority thinks they have no power and are ignored by the majority then no, there is no difference between doing so in a democracy and doing so in an authoritarian state.
Standing up to "tyranny of the majority" is a key element of civil disorder through the ages in democratic states.
Bristol Council = Labour Bristol Mayor = Labour
Bit like Minneapolis.
Labour are shit.
Not sure what your point is. I most certainly don't support Labour.
Merely pointing out that when places are said to be suffering 'tyranny' or 'oppression' they also seem to have been under the political control of left wing parties for decades.
Not a coincidence. The left wing parties aren't liberal.
Leftist middle classes have a lifestyle dependent upon exploiting the poor and and a political mindset dependent upon the exploitation of the grievances of the poor.
The BBC is reporting on the FT suggestion that pubs will be open on June 22nd, presumably outside only. Was taking to a local publican the other day...... well, speaking loudly to, as we were a good 2m apart..... and he is planning to close his car park and use the space for tables. Not a lot of people drive to the place anyway.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
Sorry old bean, but I am right of centre, and so are many people I know, and we are not forgetting the outrage. We are not of the brain dead middle to far right who clearly would like us to "move on". It isn't happening just yet, though I it is quite likely there will be other stories of incompetence and weak leadership from Johnson that will take its place in due course
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
Exactly. The passenger from NZ sat between two others from Mexico is just as likely to be infected.
They won’t be sat between two others from Mexico because NZ has closed its borders to all non resident foreigners and if the Mexicans are resident they’ll have had compulsory government run quarantine when they arrived in NZ.
The Kiwi catches a flight from Auckland to LAX. Connects there on a flight to LHR. It is on the second flight that they are sat with the Mexicans (or Brasilians, or Peruivans, or Yanks, etc.). And gets infected.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
If they’re all flying from a country with no known COVID cases and don’t meet anyone enroute what’s the problem?
In any case with the UK’s COVID rate no one with a low rate is going to be opening their border to us.
The problem is we're trying to prevent the virus getting back into the country after we eliminate it.
What's the problem with that?
We haven’t eliminated it and we’ll be quarantining people less likely to have the virus than we have, in most cases.
Add to that the quarantine measures announced seem feeble and likely ineffective so we appear to be exacting maximal business damage for minimal medical advantage.
To be clear - I think the U.K. should have introduced quarantine in March - but in mid-June late is not better than never.
I take it the PB racists who object to the toppling of Colston also objected to the toppling of Saddam or Lenin?
What an utterly stupid and insulting comment. I’m surprised at you.
There is a big - and important - difference between objecting to a statue being torn down because you approve of slavery and want to honour a slave trader (I can’t think of anyone on here who falls into that category but no doubt, if you have that evidence, you will name names rather than making blanket accusations of racism) and objecting because you don’t think decisions to remove statues should be made by mobs causing criminal damage and apparently contrary to the decision of the local community.
There is also a big - and important - difference between doing so in a democracy and doing so in an authoritarian state where there has been no democracy.
If a minority thinks they have no power and are ignored by the majority then no, there is no difference between doing so in a democracy and doing so in an authoritarian state.
Standing up to "tyranny of the majority" is a key element of civil disorder through the ages in democratic states.
Bristol Council = Labour Bristol Mayor = Labour
Bit like Minneapolis.
Labour are shit.
Not sure what your point is. I most certainly don't support Labour.
Merely pointing out that when places are said to be suffering 'tyranny' or 'oppression' they also seem to have been under the political control of left wing parties for decades.
Not a coincidence. The left wing parties aren't liberal.
Leftist middle classes have a lifestyle dependent upon exploiting the poor and and a political mindset dependent upon the exploitation of the grievances of the poor.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
You said "approximately zero". I took that to mean a half a dozen. What is the range of "approximately zero" as you see it then?
Well in UK opinion polling if a polled option gets 0.49% that will be rounded down to zero. Based on 32 million voting last year then 156k would be the upper bound for zero percent. I think the number who change the votes between 2019 and 2024 because of Cummings will be almost certainly lower than that.
The fact that while the world is erupting in protests on a matter of civil rights, when there's violence on the streets and everything else is going on there are frankly far bigger issues that matter than Dominic Cummings going to Barnhard Castle and only people like @Nigel_Foremain who haven't gotten over the fact they lost the 2016 referendum and lost the 2019 General Election are still banging on about Cummings.
The number banging on about Cummings in 2024 who didn't already hate him before 2019's General Election is going to be approximately zero.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
Exactly. The passenger from NZ sat between two others from Mexico is just as likely to be infected.
They won’t be sat between two others from Mexico because NZ has closed its borders to all non resident foreigners and if the Mexicans are resident they’ll have had compulsory government run quarantine when they arrived in NZ.
The Kiwi catches a flight from Auckland to LAX. Connects there on a flight to LHR. It is on the second flight that they are sat with the Mexicans (or Brasilians, or Peruivans, or Yanks, etc.). And gets infected.
The “air bridge” model presumes direct or technical stop over only flights, not connected flights.
Statue ethics - I'm probably not alone in having no idea who 95% of the statues that I see represent, so starting point is that I don't care. If someone is widely admired by some and hated by others (Lenin in Ukraine seems a good example, and arguably Thatcher is too, but not Churchill), it seems fair to move the statue to somewhere out of the way where people who were fond of them can go and see it without winding up the others - putting the statue in a derisive theme park is trolling, though. Where the statue commemorates people now universally seen as disreputable - Jimmy Saville's elaborate gravestone for instance - then removal seems best. Arguably a slaver who later gave money to charity is in the second category, not the first.
The issue of direct action vs democratic process is separate, and I'm usually not keen on the former, but I won't get worked up about a hunk of stone.
I believe that Saville's coffin has been reburied in an unmarked plot and the headstone destroyed.
If Colston's statue is bronze, then perhaps it could be melted down to make marine propellors and then somebody would get some use out of it
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
You said "approximately zero". I took that to mean a half a dozen. What is the range of "approximately zero" as you see it then?
Well in UK opinion polling if a polled option gets 0.49% that will be rounded down to zero. Based on 32 million voting last year then 156k would be the upper bound for zero percent. I think the number who change the votes between 2019 and 2024 because of Cummings will be almost certainly lower than that.
The fact that while the world is erupting in protests on a matter of civil rights, when there's violence on the streets and everything else is going on there are frankly far bigger issues that matter than Dominic Cummings going to Barnhard Castle and only people like @Nigel_Foremain who haven't gotten over the fact they lost the 2016 referendum and lost the 2019 General Election are still banging on about Cummings.
The number banging on about Cummings in 2024 who didn't already hate him before 2019's General Election is going to be approximately zero.
If you're right waht accounts for the large drop in support for Boris and the Conservatives?
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
I wouldn't expect places that have eradicated the rona to rely on this but it seems to be very unusual to get infected on a plane, probably for reasons related to airflow etc.
Your experience of flying is rather different to mine then - the number of colds I used to get while continually flying compared to the last few months tells me a very different story.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
I take it the PB racists who object to the toppling of Colston also objected to the toppling of Saddam or Lenin?
What an utterly stupid and insulting comment. I’m surprised at you.
There is a big - and important - difference between objecting to a statue being torn down because you approve of slavery and want to honour a slave trader (I can’t think of anyone on here who falls into that category but no doubt, if you have that evidence, you will name names rather than making blanket accusations of racism) and objecting because you don’t think decisions to remove statues should be made by mobs causing criminal damage and apparently contrary to the decision of the local community.
There is also a big - and important - difference between doing so in a democracy and doing so in an authoritarian state where there has been no democracy.
If a minority thinks they have no power and are ignored by the majority then no, there is no difference between doing so in a democracy and doing so in an authoritarian state.
Standing up to "tyranny of the majority" is a key element of civil disorder through the ages in democratic states.
Bristol Council = Labour Bristol Mayor = Labour
Bit like Minneapolis.
Labour are shit.
Not sure what your point is. I most certainly don't support Labour.
Merely pointing out that when places are said to be suffering 'tyranny' or 'oppression' they also seem to have been under the political control of left wing parties for decades.
Not a coincidence. The left wing parties aren't liberal.
Leftist middle classes have a lifestyle dependent upon exploiting the poor and and a political mindset dependent upon the exploitation of the grievances of the poor.
Agreed which besides the fact I don't have left wing economic views is why I don't support leftist parties.
Doesn't change the facts for the public on the streets though. If they're ignored by the parties they're supposed to turn to then what other choices do they have? There's a noble history of civil disorder going back hundreds of years to try and change the conversation and put on a spotlight on genuine grievances. No need to always wait for democracy to work.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
Exactly. The passenger from NZ sat between two others from Mexico is just as likely to be infected.
They won’t be sat between two others from Mexico because NZ has closed its borders to all non resident foreigners and if the Mexicans are resident they’ll have had compulsory government run quarantine when they arrived in NZ.
The Kiwi catches a flight from Auckland to LAX. Connects there on a flight to LHR. It is on the second flight that they are sat with the Mexicans (or Brasilians, or Peruivans, or Yanks, etc.). And gets infected.
The “air bridge” model presumes direct or technical stop over only flights, not connected flights.
That's a different kettle of fish than just saying anyone who started their journey in NZ is exempt.
The BBC is reporting on the FT suggestion that pubs will be open on June 22nd, presumably outside only. Was taking to a local publican the other day...... well, speaking loudly to, as we were a good 2m apart..... and he is planning to close his car park and use the space for tables. Not a lot of people drive to the place anyway.
Will the rules for opening be seriously thought out, will it be policed properly and the rules enforceable. The Spanish rules are quite clear, 50% of your license capacity on terraces Tables two meters apart, disinfected between each customer. Groups now limited to 15 people but must be separated by two meters from other customers and properly spaced within the group. Two bars near me have been fined €6000 for breaking rules one for exceeding the group limit and the other for having a group of ten sat at tables for four.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Read the thread under the Tweet from the policing minister about crime and punishment, and count how many times Cummings is mentioned
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
You said "approximately zero". I took that to mean a half a dozen. What is the range of "approximately zero" as you see it then?
Well in UK opinion polling if a polled option gets 0.49% that will be rounded down to zero. Based on 32 million voting last year then 156k would be the upper bound for zero percent. I think the number who change the votes between 2019 and 2024 because of Cummings will be almost certainly lower than that.
The fact that while the world is erupting in protests on a matter of civil rights, when there's violence on the streets and everything else is going on there are frankly far bigger issues that matter than Dominic Cummings going to Barnhard Castle and only people like @Nigel_Foremain who haven't gotten over the fact they lost the 2016 referendum and lost the 2019 General Election are still banging on about Cummings.
The number banging on about Cummings in 2024 who didn't already hate him before 2019's General Election is going to be approximately zero.
156,000 people = approximately zero. Okay that's a start. How does your spreadsheet say these 156,000 people are distributed throughout the constituencies?
Meanwhile, the attack line "one law for them" - how effective, to the nearest percentage, do you think that might be?
Listening to the Mayor of Bristol interview with Sky was interesting - he's just a middle aged student politician.
All the soundbites .... "inequality is increasing" (no it isn't), "they don't feel represented" (we have 10% of BAME MPs in Parliament, compare with EU Parliament), "deaths in custody are increasing" (no they aren't) and so on.
'Do you support enforcing the law'?, circumlocution, circumlocution, circumlocution...
In today's media world, perception of issues is probably more important than reality - and if the police and home office isn't spending time changing that perception it's going to be a hard battle to win.
As for Bristol itself the mayor has the interesting issue of how do you complain about criminal damage when the removal of the statue was probably a blessing. And it's a shame as the expression and face of the statue is actually very good
I half-agree with you on the media point - the question then becomes how to encourage quality of media.
Will the writer who asked for a repeat-loop-and-comedy-music of that Police Woman being hospitalised get away scot free?
The problem with standing back from politics by destruction, is that such is thereby encouraged. As a point I have already made this morning, rewarding lawbreaking is to encourage it.
I think for Bristol itself it is blatantly obvious - there is a mayoral election due (has already been postponed), and this needs to be a key point of debate.
But the people destroying the statue don't really believe in either law or democracy when it doesn't do what they want. That is a repeat of a pattern, for example, of Occupy St Pauls, who were very keen on the judicial process until they lost, then they started warbling conspiracy theories.
Whether you agree with the quarantine today or not, Kay Burley on Sky actively suggesting people should lie on the forms and ignore them. It is only a £100 fine
Is this where journalism has finally lost all responsibility
As Erasure sang on Top of the Pops last Friday (September 1989)
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
You said "approximately zero". I took that to mean a half a dozen. What is the range of "approximately zero" as you see it then?
Well in UK opinion polling if a polled option gets 0.49% that will be rounded down to zero. Based on 32 million voting last year then 156k would be the upper bound for zero percent. I think the number who change the votes between 2019 and 2024 because of Cummings will be almost certainly lower than that.
The fact that while the world is erupting in protests on a matter of civil rights, when there's violence on the streets and everything else is going on there are frankly far bigger issues that matter than Dominic Cummings going to Barnhard Castle and only people like @Nigel_Foremain who haven't gotten over the fact they lost the 2016 referendum and lost the 2019 General Election are still banging on about Cummings.
The number banging on about Cummings in 2024 who didn't already hate him before 2019's General Election is going to be approximately zero.
If you're right waht accounts for the large drop in support for Boris and the Conservatives?
Come 2024 I'd be flabbergasted if even 1% changed their views based on Cummings.
Those already hated Cummings are already baked in. Those who didn't, got upset but moved on because other issues mattered more aren't changing their vote for him.
The Venn Diagram intersect of "voted Tory in 2019", "Doesn't vote Tory in 2024", "didn't change their vote because of issues other than Cummings" is going to be an absurdly small intersect in my opinion.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
I wouldn't expect places that have eradicated the rona to rely on this but it seems to be very unusual to get infected on a plane, probably for reasons related to airflow etc.
Your experience of flying is rather different to mine then - the number of colds I used to get while continually flying compared to the last few months tells me a very different story.
I mean with the rona, not a random cold. I have the same experience as you with colds, although I don't know how much of that is in-flight contagion and how much is tiredness etc.
I'm basing this on the fact that contract tracing of planes is really easy since the airline has everybody's information, but there don't seem to be *any* reports of big clusters from passengers on planes, and not even many little ones.
Thanks for an interesting header but I am largely unmoved. It reads like wishful thinking to me.
This is a Silent Majority election. The 'culture war' stuff grabs the attention but it broadly cancels out. There is a critical mass in the apolitical and independent centre which is tired of Donald Trump. There is not the appetite there for another 4 years of what was - let's face it - a bizarre experiment and one which has by all objective criteria failed.
I think this is what the polls are saying. More of a hint atm but one which over the summer will solidify into something clear and settled. Trump was odds on a few weeks ago. He is 2.4 now. He will be 3.5 in Sept and 5 on the eve of election. Come the Big Day, he will lose the Popular Vote by at least 5 points and will struggle to reach 200 in the Electoral College. This is my very confident prediction.
I do have a couple of worries. 1. Medical. That Biden does have dementia and this becomes apparent to all during the campaign. 2. Cheating. That Trump is somehow able to steal the election by nefarious methods such as mass voter suppression in Dem areas. These are niggles rather than serious concerns but they are just enough to stop me spending the fiver I have on the line with the author.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Dominic Cummings to take a well deserved break in Portugal this Summer and then failing to quarantine on return?
Listening to the Mayor of Bristol interview with Sky was interesting - he's just a middle aged student politician.
All the soundbites .... "inequality is increasing" (no it isn't), "they don't feel represented" (we have 10% of BAME MPs in Parliament, compare with EU Parliament), "deaths in custody are increasing" (no they aren't) and so on.
'Do you support enforcing the law'?, circumlocution, circumlocution, circumlocution...
In today's media world, perception of issues is probably more important than reality - and if the police and home office isn't spending time changing that perception it's going to be a hard battle to win.
As for Bristol itself the mayor has the interesting issue of how do you complain about criminal damage when the removal of the statue was probably a blessing. And it's a shame as the expression and face of the statue is actually very good
I half-agree with you on the media point - the question then becomes how to encourage quality of media.
Will the writer who asked for a repeat-loop-and-comedy-music of that Police Woman being hospitalised get away scot free?
The problem with standing back from politics by destruction, is that such is thereby encouraged. As a point I have already made this morning, rewarding lawbreaking is to encourage it.
I think for Bristol itself it is blatantly obvious - there is a mayoral election due (has already been postponed), and this needs to be a key point of debate.
But the people destroying the statue don't really believe in either law or democracy when it doesn't do what they want. That is a repeat of a pattern, for example, of Occupy St Pauls, who were very keen on the judicial process until they lost, then they started warbling conspiracy theories.
In this case how do you conduct the debate:
Should it have been pulled down (well no) Should we put it back up (say yes and you've lost the election as you will be spending the next year explaining why you aren't racist and a slave sympathiser)
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Dominic Cummings to take a well deserved break in Portugal this Summer and then failing to quarantine on return?
I wouldn't rule something like that out. It feels like exactly the type of tone deaf thing he would do.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
Do you think thats maybe because we are testing far far more than those countries?
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
Do you think thats maybe because we are testing far far more than those countries?
We don't seem to know how many people we're testing unfortunately.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
Just popped back in for a mo, and had the amusing irony of seeing that Philip Thompson, the man who seems to have nothing to do in his life except rant on PB (often incoherently) call others "losers". Philip, please try and get a life, you are no position to call anyone a loser.
Talking politics on a political forum is a hobby of mine.
Repeatedly coming on to a political forum, to attack other people who are on the political forum, for posting about politics on a political forum - that's more than a tad weird.
lol. It's not a hobby when you do little else. It is called an obsession. Anyway, matey, I will only "attack" you as you say, if you refer to others that you disapprove of in a derogatory and hypocritical way. In my opinion, someone that spends huge amounts of time (how many hours a day are you on here?) on a political blog and then calls others "losers" is worth calling out.
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
And how many new cases were we having this time last month? Or two months ago?
1.3k cases is not many compared to what it was and the testing capacity and tracing capacity is much greater than what it was. Suppressing the virus domestically should be the ambition and once that's done new cases coming onto our island is what matters.
A deadly pandemic, a collapsing economy, failing Brexit trade talks, a severe drought, an escalating culture war ... what a time to have a bone idle, lying, charlatan, his psychopathic, unaccountable “adviser” and a cabinet of third-rate incompetents in charge of things.
Statue ethics - I'm probably not alone in having no idea who 95% of the statues that I see represent, so starting point is that I don't care. If someone is widely admired by some and hated by others (Lenin in Ukraine seems a good example, and arguably Thatcher is too, but not Churchill), it seems fair to move the statue to somewhere out of the way where people who were fond of them can go and see it without winding up the others - putting the statue in a derisive theme park is trolling, though. Where the statue commemorates people now universally seen as disreputable - Jimmy Saville's elaborate gravestone for instance - then removal seems best. Arguably a slaver who later gave money to charity is in the second category, not the first.
The issue of direct action vs democratic process is separate, and I'm usually not keen on the former, but I won't get worked up about a hunk of stone.
I don't get worked up about hunks of stone but I do about the rule of law. A campaign to remove a statue using democratic processes because with modern sensibilities the good that the person did was outweighed by the bad is absolutely fair enough. No problem with that at all. Just because a statue has been there over 100 years doesn't give it any rights. It is, ultimately, a hunk of stone. But mob rule and vandalism are very bad things whether directed at a hunk of stone, a shop, some politician or 10 Downing Street. It should not be tolerated.
The BBC is reporting on the FT suggestion that pubs will be open on June 22nd, presumably outside only. Was taking to a local publican the other day...... well, speaking loudly to, as we were a good 2m apart..... and he is planning to close his car park and use the space for tables. Not a lot of people drive to the place anyway.
Will the rules for opening be seriously thought out, will it be policed properly and the rules enforceable. The Spanish rules are quite clear, 50% of your license capacity on terraces Tables two meters apart, disinfected between each customer. Groups now limited to 15 people but must be separated by two meters from other customers and properly spaced within the group. Two bars near me have been fined €6000 for breaking rules one for exceeding the group limit and the other for having a group of ten sat at tables for four.
That sounds sensible. Two of our three local pubs could, more or less, do that. I don't think the third could; it's got about the least attractive 'outdoors' that I've ever seen other than in a big town. Our local wine bar & vineyard could do it, too. Booze is a bit on the pricey side for some of us though.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
Just popped back in for a mo, and had the amusing irony of seeing that Philip Thompson, the man who seems to have nothing to do in his life except rant on PB (often incoherently) call others "losers". Philip, please try and get a life, you are no position to call anyone a loser.
Talking politics on a political forum is a hobby of mine.
Repeatedly coming on to a political forum, to attack other people who are on the political forum, for posting about politics on a political forum - that's more than a tad weird.
lol. It's not a hobby when you do little else. It is called an obsession. Anyway, matey, I will only "attack" you as you say, if you refer to others that you disapprove of in a derogatory and hypocritical way. In my opinion, someone that spends huge amounts of time (how many hours a day are you on here?) on a political blog and then calls others "losers" is worth calling out.
I said losers in the context of people sad they lost the 2016 referendum and 2019 general election. They literally lost.
If it struck a nerve for you then I'll be the bigger man and apologise.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Do you think SKS will let the narrative move on?
Given that most of his party is having a collective orgasm over a destructive mob roaming around the country with zero social distancing, I think he'd be brave to go on Cummings again.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
Polls are ephemeral nonsense midterm. I don't believe them when HYUFD wields them as the gospel truth, nor do I believe them when anyone else does.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
And how many new cases were we having this time last month? Or two months ago?
1.3k cases is not many compared to what it was and the testing capacity and tracing capacity is much greater than what it was. Suppressing the virus domestically should be the ambition and once that's done new cases coming onto our island is what matters.
You sound like Johnson, proud of what he's done over the past three months. 1300 people with what can be a fatal illness! And you think that's OK!!!
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
Polls are ephemeral nonsense midterm. I don't believe them when HYUFD wields them as the gospel truth, nor do I believe them when anyone else does.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
No we just call you a hypocrite when you call other people losers lol!
Statue ethics - I'm probably not alone in having no idea who 95% of the statues that I see represent, so starting point is that I don't care. If someone is widely admired by some and hated by others (Lenin in Ukraine seems a good example, and arguably Thatcher is too, but not Churchill), it seems fair to move the statue to somewhere out of the way where people who were fond of them can go and see it without winding up the others - putting the statue in a derisive theme park is trolling, though. Where the statue commemorates people now universally seen as disreputable - Jimmy Saville's elaborate gravestone for instance - then removal seems best. Arguably a slaver who later gave money to charity is in the second category, not the first.
The issue of direct action vs democratic process is separate, and I'm usually not keen on the former, but I won't get worked up about a hunk of stone.
I don't get worked up about hunks of stone but I do about the rule of law. A campaign to remove a statue using democratic processes because with modern sensibilities the good that the person did was outweighed by the bad is absolutely fair enough. No problem with that at all. Just because a statue has been there over 100 years doesn't give it any rights. It is, ultimately, a hunk of stone. But mob rule and vandalism are very bad things whether directed at a hunk of stone, a shop, some politician or 10 Downing Street. It should not be tolerated.
I’m not a fan of mob rule. I’m also not a fan of apathetic majorities riding roughshod indefinitely over minorities. Majoritarianism usually has an ugly ending.
There are other examples of aggressive majoritarianism just now, I suspect, but the most obvious example is eluding me.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
Polls are ephemeral nonsense midterm. I don't believe them when HYUFD wields them as the gospel truth, nor do I believe them when anyone else does.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
You don't need polls because your view of how everyone in the UK will vote is accurate, to 0.49%,
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
And how many new cases were we having this time last month? Or two months ago?
1.3k cases is not many compared to what it was and the testing capacity and tracing capacity is much greater than what it was. Suppressing the virus domestically should be the ambition and once that's done new cases coming onto our island is what matters.
You sound like Johnson, proud of what he's done over the past three months. 1300 people with what can be a fatal illness! And you think that's OK!!!
Yes, I think its progress.
People die, its a fact of life. I don't expect the deathcount to be zero on any day, everyone dies in the end. We have to do our best in the situation we face realistically and if we're eliminating the virus then that is progress.
The final death tally will be higher than most bad flu seasons but better than some eg Hong Kong flu. Considering the nature of the virus yes that's OK. Not good, just OK. Worse than it could have been, better than it could have been.
Listening to the Mayor of Bristol interview with Sky was interesting - he's just a middle aged student politician.
All the soundbites .... "inequality is increasing" (no it isn't), "they don't feel represented" (we have 10% of BAME MPs in Parliament, compare with EU Parliament), "deaths in custody are increasing" (no they aren't) and so on.
'Do you support enforcing the law'?, circumlocution, circumlocution, circumlocution...
In today's media world, perception of issues is probably more important than reality - and if the police and home office isn't spending time changing that perception it's going to be a hard battle to win.
As for Bristol itself the mayor has the interesting issue of how do you complain about criminal damage when the removal of the statue was probably a blessing. And it's a shame as the expression and face of the statue is actually very good
I half-agree with you on the media point - the question then becomes how to encourage quality of media.
Will the writer who asked for a repeat-loop-and-comedy-music of that Police Woman being hospitalised get away scot free?
The problem with standing back from politics by destruction, is that such is thereby encouraged. As a point I have already made this morning, rewarding lawbreaking is to encourage it.
I think for Bristol itself it is blatantly obvious - there is a mayoral election due (has already been postponed), and this needs to be a key point of debate.
But the people destroying the statue don't really believe in either law or democracy when it doesn't do what they want. That is a repeat of a pattern, for example, of Occupy St Pauls, who were very keen on the judicial process until they lost, then they started warbling conspiracy theories.
On a wider issue this raises: Labour may be becoming electable for the first time in ages. To do so probably needs the votes of the sorts of people who approve of taking the law into their own hands as long as the issue is a reasonably woke one, like destroying slave trader statues, but not if it's an unwoke one, like scrawling pro-gay graffiti on a mosque. They also need the votes of people who prefer the rule of law to the promotion of culture wars.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
Polls are ephemeral nonsense midterm. I don't believe them when HYUFD wields them as the gospel truth, nor do I believe them when anyone else does.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
You don't need polls because your view of how everyone in the UK will vote is accurate, to 0.49%,
I never said that.
What percentage of the public do you think will vote differently in 2024 solely because of Cummings?
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Do you think SKS will let the narrative move on?
Given that most of his party is having a collective orgasm over a destructive mob roaming around the country with zero social distancing, I think he'd be brave to go on Cummings again.
It won’t be “Cummings again” it will be “One law for them, another one for us”.
Who do we think will be the first minister found breaking the 14 day post holiday quarantine law?
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Dominic Cummings to take a well deserved break in Portugal this Summer and then failing to quarantine on return?
Why would he be subject to quarantine? Surely the Royal Flight is exempt?
This will be a disappointment for those Cummings apologists who claim we have "moved on" from the story of his outrageous hypocrisy and Johnson's weak acquiescence .
Not at all. Sad losers who *have a vote* think this is the important story now are pathetic.
FTFY, as they say.
The number of people who will vote based on Cummings differently in 2024 than they did in 2019 will be approximately zero.
Those still harping on about him are those who already hated him. The rest have moved on already.
FANTASTIC!!! Someone who knows how each and every individual in the UK will vote!
Please can you make sure that in future elections your predictions spreadsheet is available and up to date.
TIA.
Your sarcasm ignores the fact that its most likely correct that voters will forget. Not all.. the visceral.left will remember but who gives a toss about them.
ANOTHER SEER!!!
PB sure is the go to site for not political analysis, but political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
Funny, find me saying half a dozen please. I think you pulled that number out of your arse, I don't remember saying it.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
Just popped back in for a mo, and had the amusing irony of seeing that Philip Thompson, the man who seems to have nothing to do in his life except rant on PB (often incoherently) call others "losers". Philip, please try and get a life, you are no position to call anyone a loser.
Talking politics on a political forum is a hobby of mine.
Repeatedly coming on to a political forum, to attack other people who are on the political forum, for posting about politics on a political forum - that's more than a tad weird.
lol. It's not a hobby when you do little else. It is called an obsession. Anyway, matey, I will only "attack" you as you say, if you refer to others that you disapprove of in a derogatory and hypocritical way. In my opinion, someone that spends huge amounts of time (how many hours a day are you on here?) on a political blog and then calls others "losers" is worth calling out.
I said losers in the context of people sad they lost the 2016 referendum and 2019 general election. They literally lost.
If it struck a nerve for you then I'll be the bigger man and apologise.
No, you were referring to those that are still outraged by the indefensible behaviour of Cummings. You have used this playground term before (much beloved of the man in America that you claim you loathe). Anyway, must go now and do some work. Try taking up another hobby: Fishing and golf are allowed, or maybe something really cool like model railways. You might even be good at a different pastime!
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
And how many new cases were we having this time last month? Or two months ago?
1.3k cases is not many compared to what it was and the testing capacity and tracing capacity is much greater than what it was. Suppressing the virus domestically should be the ambition and once that's done new cases coming onto our island is what matters.
You sound like Johnson, proud of what he's done over the past three months. 1300 people with what can be a fatal illness! And you think that's OK!!!
Yes, I think its progress.
People die, its a fact of life. I don't expect the deathcount to be zero on any day, everyone dies in the end. We have to do our best in the situation we face realistically and if we're eliminating the virus then that is progress.
The final death tally will be higher than most bad flu seasons but better than some eg Hong Kong flu. Considering the nature of the virus yes that's OK. Not good, just OK. Worse than it could have been, better than it could have been.
AIUI it's around 1300 over what would normally be expected.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
The Cummings thing is not a big deal. What is a big deal is the totally confused, inept and potentially malign handling of this situation by the government. They have screwed the economy for no reason with their largely pointless and ineffective lockdown. They continue to interfere with civil liberties - again for no logical reason - quarantine? face masks? Why now? They clearly haven't got a clue what they are doing and we still have the worst record in Europe on deaths.
Now, if I had a time machine I certainly wouldn't change my vote as the alternative was Jeremy Corbyn and Dianne Abbott in charge. But I can't see myself voting for these clowns again. Or voting again for that matter.
A deadly pandemic, a collapsing economy, failing Brexit trade talks, a severe drought, an escalating culture war ... what a time to have a bone idle, lying, charlatan, his psychopathic, unaccountable “adviser” and a cabinet of third-rate incompetents in charge of things.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
Polls are ephemeral nonsense midterm. I don't believe them when HYUFD wields them as the gospel truth, nor do I believe them when anyone else does.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
You don't need polls because your view of how everyone in the UK will vote is accurate, to 0.49%,
I never said that.
What percentage of the public do you think will vote differently in 2024 solely because of Cummings?
What a stupid question. Cummings will be just one of the factors in shaping the views of many voters about the man you love so dearly that you fail to see any faults.
Statue ethics - I'm probably not alone in having no idea who 95% of the statues that I see represent, so starting point is that I don't care. If someone is widely admired by some and hated by others (Lenin in Ukraine seems a good example, and arguably Thatcher is too, but not Churchill), it seems fair to move the statue to somewhere out of the way where people who were fond of them can go and see it without winding up the others - putting the statue in a derisive theme park is trolling, though. Where the statue commemorates people now universally seen as disreputable - Jimmy Saville's elaborate gravestone for instance - then removal seems best. Arguably a slaver who later gave money to charity is in the second category, not the first.
The issue of direct action vs democratic process is separate, and I'm usually not keen on the former, but I won't get worked up about a hunk of stone.
I don't get worked up about hunks of stone but I do about the rule of law. A campaign to remove a statue using democratic processes because with modern sensibilities the good that the person did was outweighed by the bad is absolutely fair enough. No problem with that at all. Just because a statue has been there over 100 years doesn't give it any rights. It is, ultimately, a hunk of stone. But mob rule and vandalism are very bad things whether directed at a hunk of stone, a shop, some politician or 10 Downing Street. It should not be tolerated.
I’m not a fan of mob rule. I’m also not a fan of apathetic majorities riding roughshod indefinitely over minorities. Majoritarianism usually has an ugly ending.
There are other examples of aggressive majoritarianism just now, I suspect, but the most obvious example is eluding me.
Majoritarianism is the weak point of democracy, I agree. There is an onus on the majority to find the least offensive or deleterious way of achieving what they want whilst respecting the views of the minority. If they do this there is a much better chance of the majority view becoming the basis of a new consensus on which society can move forward. If they don't then society is divided and weakened.
The final death tally will be higher than most bad flu seasons but better than some eg Hong Kong flu. Considering the nature of the virus yes that's OK. Not good, just OK. Worse than it could have been, better than it could have been.
Statue ethics - I'm probably not alone in having no idea who 95% of the statues that I see represent, so starting point is that I don't care. If someone is widely admired by some and hated by others (Lenin in Ukraine seems a good example, and arguably Thatcher is too, but not Churchill), it seems fair to move the statue to somewhere out of the way where people who were fond of them can go and see it without winding up the others - putting the statue in a derisive theme park is trolling, though. Where the statue commemorates people now universally seen as disreputable - Jimmy Saville's elaborate gravestone for instance - then removal seems best. Arguably a slaver who later gave money to charity is in the second category, not the first.
The issue of direct action vs democratic process is separate, and I'm usually not keen on the former, but I won't get worked up about a hunk of stone.
I don't get worked up about hunks of stone but I do about the rule of law. A campaign to remove a statue using democratic processes because with modern sensibilities the good that the person did was outweighed by the bad is absolutely fair enough. No problem with that at all. Just because a statue has been there over 100 years doesn't give it any rights. It is, ultimately, a hunk of stone. But mob rule and vandalism are very bad things whether directed at a hunk of stone, a shop, some politician or 10 Downing Street. It should not be tolerated.
I’m not a fan of mob rule. I’m also not a fan of apathetic majorities riding roughshod indefinitely over minorities. Majoritarianism usually has an ugly ending.
There are other examples of aggressive majoritarianism just now, I suspect, but the most obvious example is eluding me.
Majoritarianism is the weak point of democracy, I agree. There is an onus on the majority to find the least offensive or deleterious way of achieving what they want whilst respecting the views of the minority. If they do this there is a much better chance of the majority view becoming the basis of a new consensus on which society can move forward. If they don't then society is divided and weakened.
I wonder what current government activity that idea might usefully be applied to?
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
Polls are ephemeral nonsense midterm. I don't believe them when HYUFD wields them as the gospel truth, nor do I believe them when anyone else does.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
You don't need polls because your view of how everyone in the UK will vote is accurate, to 0.49%,
I never said that.
What percentage of the public do you think will vote differently in 2024 solely because of Cummings?
Jeez it really does need to be drummed into you.
I really enjoy discussing stuff with you because you are rigorous and relentless and that is good, in a Socratic way, it means people examine their own arguments because you won't let anything slip by.
But here you have got it wrong. As has been pointed out to you by several posters, and me at 9.12am, the point about Cummings is that he will feed the narrative of one law for them. That is toxic and yes, due to Cummings.
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
And how many new cases were we having this time last month? Or two months ago?
1.3k cases is not many compared to what it was and the testing capacity and tracing capacity is much greater than what it was. Suppressing the virus domestically should be the ambition and once that's done new cases coming onto our island is what matters.
1.3k cases is a lot! It's roughly double what we found the day before lockdown. We are obviously not prioritizing suppressing the virus domestically since we are opening up schools, non-essential shops, home viewings to buy a house etc.
Minister really struggling on R4 to explain why we are quarantining people coming from New Zealand...
Have NZ lifted their travel restrictions
Even if they hadn't, surely there are no direct flights from the UK to New Zealand so the point is moot?
Depends. Some transit airports (eg Changi) are isolating transit passengers so they can neither infect nor get infected. Others, like Doha are not, which is why Greece banned inbound flights from Doha last week after several passengers tested positive.
I don't think isolating the people in the transition airport is the issue, it's the fact they start in country a, fly to b and then spend x hours flying from b to c (London say). And it's the x hours spent next to other people while flying that is the issue here.
I wouldn't expect places that have eradicated the rona to rely on this but it seems to be very unusual to get infected on a plane, probably for reasons related to airflow etc.
Your experience of flying is rather different to mine then - the number of colds I used to get while continually flying compared to the last few months tells me a very different story.
Flying long haul in winter I would guesstimate I got a cold 30-40% of the time? May be due to temperature differences between Uk and destination and aircons in hotels instead of/as well as the flights though.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
Polls are ephemeral nonsense midterm. I don't believe them when HYUFD wields them as the gospel truth, nor do I believe them when anyone else does.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
You don't need polls because your view of how everyone in the UK will vote is accurate, to 0.49%,
I never said that.
What percentage of the public do you think will vote differently in 2024 solely because of Cummings?
What a stupid question. Cummings will be just one of the factors in shaping the views of many voters about the man you love so dearly that you fail to see any faults.
We are not close to eliminating it. We had over 1.3k new cases yesterday. That's more than France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands combined.
Are the new cases numbers based on viral antigen numbers, or all tests?
If the latter, then resolved infections picked up on antibody testing would also be included. I am booked for my antibody test tommorow.
No one is going to change their vote based on Cummings, what they will change their vote for is the idea that the Tories have a set of rules that they can ignore when it suits them. That narrative will build up over the next 4 years.
Why will that narrative build up? This story is fading from the news already.
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem. If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
Every time there is a minor or technical breach of some procedural rule it comes back to this. Ultimately the government made the wrong decision, whether or not you agree I know they did, I'm pretty sure they know they did but figure the political cost was worth it. I think you're probably the only person who is trying to legitimately argue that it wasn't.
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
Polls are ephemeral nonsense midterm. I don't believe them when HYUFD wields them as the gospel truth, nor do I believe them when anyone else does.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
You don't need polls because your view of how everyone in the UK will vote is accurate, to 0.49%,
I never said that.
What percentage of the public do you think will vote differently in 2024 solely because of Cummings?
Jeez it really does need to be drummed into you.
I really enjoy discussing stuff with you because you are rigorous and relentless and that is good, in a Socratic way, it means people examine their own arguments because you won't let anything slip by.
But here you have got it wrong. As has been pointed out to you by several posters, and me at 9.12am, the point about Cummings is that he will feed the narrative of one law for them. That is toxic and yes, due to Cummings.
And how's that different from the last 50 years ?
Politicians have always lectured the electorate on how to live while giving themselves a let. Your gripe seems to be its someone you don't like who has been caught out, but there is nothing new in this. .
Comments
Also the NHS stockpiles have been completely depleted by Covid, and there are none left for no deal.
Happy Monday!
We're barely a week or two from this leaving the news headlines and already the only people bringing this up unprompted are the obsessive cranks who hated him before last year's election. Give it another 4 years and that'll be even more the case.
PB sure is the go to site not for political analysis, oh no, but for political certainty. How many would you say the visceral left comprises? Phil thinks no more than half a dozen. What's your number? Trying to work out if there's a trend.
PS how much of the visceral left do you think voted Tory in 2019?
The issue of direct action vs democratic process is separate, and I'm usually not keen on the former, but I won't get worked up about a hunk of stone.
You and whoever the other poster is just now are displaying an enviable level of political acuity.
How about, the people who care about Cummings is small, but the number of people who will be moved by the resulting Lab attack line "one law for them" will be significantly bigger?
Quarantine while the virus was circulating and there was no passenger travel certainly would have been gesture politics. Doing so after the virus has been defeated domestically but not globally yet is a different matter.
If it screws with your holiday plans then tough shit. Don't have a holiday then. Plans much greater than holidays have been screwed with this year.
Repeatedly coming on to a political forum, to attack other people who are on the political forum, for posting about politics on a political forum - that's more than a tad weird.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-06/kamala-harris-prosecutor-record-may-haunt-vp-selection-process
What's the verdict going to be?
Pot. Kettle.
Not a lot of people drive to the place anyway.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1269724206440370178
Edit: I see Malthouse was talking about the statue being pulled down. Boris/the govt are still fucking muppets, that said.
Add to that the quarantine measures announced seem feeble and likely ineffective so we appear to be exacting maximal business damage for minimal medical advantage.
To be clear - I think the U.K. should have introduced quarantine in March - but in mid-June late is not better than never.
The fact that while the world is erupting in protests on a matter of civil rights, when there's violence on the streets and everything else is going on there are frankly far bigger issues that matter than Dominic Cummings going to Barnhard Castle and only people like @Nigel_Foremain who haven't gotten over the fact they lost the 2016 referendum and lost the 2019 General Election are still banging on about Cummings.
The number banging on about Cummings in 2024 who didn't already hate him before 2019's General Election is going to be approximately zero.
If Colston's statue is bronze, then perhaps it could be melted down to make marine propellors and then somebody would get some use out of it
Doesn't change the facts for the public on the streets though. If they're ignored by the parties they're supposed to turn to then what other choices do they have? There's a noble history of civil disorder going back hundreds of years to try and change the conversation and put on a spotlight on genuine grievances. No need to always wait for democracy to work.
Meanwhile, the attack line "one law for them" - how effective, to the nearest percentage, do you think that might be?
Will the writer who asked for a repeat-loop-and-comedy-music of that Police Woman being hospitalised get away scot free?
The problem with standing back from politics by destruction, is that such is thereby encouraged. As a point I have already made this morning, rewarding lawbreaking is to encourage it.
I think for Bristol itself it is blatantly obvious - there is a mayoral election due (has already been postponed), and this needs to be a key point of debate.
But the people destroying the statue don't really believe in either law or democracy when it doesn't do what they want. That is a repeat of a pattern, for example, of Occupy St Pauls, who were very keen on the judicial process until they lost, then they started warbling conspiracy theories.
One rule for us
For you another
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gwiInUNf_s
Those already hated Cummings are already baked in. Those who didn't, got upset but moved on because other issues mattered more aren't changing their vote for him.
The Venn Diagram intersect of "voted Tory in 2019", "Doesn't vote Tory in 2024", "didn't change their vote because of issues other than Cummings" is going to be an absurdly small intersect in my opinion.
I'm basing this on the fact that contract tracing of planes is really easy since the airline has everybody's information, but there don't seem to be *any* reports of big clusters from passengers on planes, and not even many little ones.
This is a Silent Majority election. The 'culture war' stuff grabs the attention but it broadly cancels out. There is a critical mass in the apolitical and independent centre which is tired of Donald Trump. There is not the appetite there for another 4 years of what was - let's face it - a bizarre experiment and one which has by all objective criteria failed.
I think this is what the polls are saying. More of a hint atm but one which over the summer will solidify into something clear and settled. Trump was odds on a few weeks ago. He is 2.4 now. He will be 3.5 in Sept and 5 on the eve of election. Come the Big Day, he will lose the Popular Vote by at least 5 points and will struggle to reach 200 in the Electoral College. This is my very confident prediction.
I do have a couple of worries. 1. Medical. That Biden does have dementia and this becomes apparent to all during the campaign. 2. Cheating. That Trump is somehow able to steal the election by nefarious methods such as mass voter suppression in Dem areas. These are niggles rather than serious concerns but they are just enough to stop me spending the fiver I have on the line with the author.
Should it have been pulled down (well no)
Should we put it back up (say yes and you've lost the election as you will be spending the next year explaining why you aren't racist and a slave sympathiser)
If further incidents happen to build the narrative up then those further incidents also play a role in people changing their votes. Cummings alone won't have been the problem.
If no further incidents occur then the narrative will move on to the news of the future.
1.3k cases is not many compared to what it was and the testing capacity and tracing capacity is much greater than what it was. Suppressing the virus domestically should be the ambition and once that's done new cases coming onto our island is what matters.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1212679425629859840
Additionally, a poll lead of just 3 after the saga unfolded vs 10 before shows it is shifting votes.
If it struck a nerve for you then I'll be the bigger man and apologise.
If you see me wielding polls as the gospel truth then feel free to call me a hypocrite but I don't, they're a snapshot they don't represent votes.
1300 people with what can be a fatal illness! And you think that's OK!!!
There are other examples of aggressive majoritarianism just now, I suspect, but the most obvious example is eluding me.
People die, its a fact of life. I don't expect the deathcount to be zero on any day, everyone dies in the end. We have to do our best in the situation we face realistically and if we're eliminating the virus then that is progress.
The final death tally will be higher than most bad flu seasons but better than some eg Hong Kong flu. Considering the nature of the virus yes that's OK. Not good, just OK. Worse than it could have been, better than it could have been.
What percentage of the public do you think will vote differently in 2024 solely because of Cummings?
Who do we think will be the first minister found breaking the 14 day post holiday quarantine law?
Now, if I had a time machine I certainly wouldn't change my vote as the alternative was Jeremy Corbyn and Dianne Abbott in charge. But I can't see myself voting for these clowns again. Or voting again for that matter.
https://twitter.com/effy_yeomans/status/1269914144582635521?s=21
I really enjoy discussing stuff with you because you are rigorous and relentless and that is good, in a Socratic way, it means people examine their own arguments because you won't let anything slip by.
But here you have got it wrong. As has been pointed out to you by several posters, and me at 9.12am, the point about Cummings is that he will feed the narrative of one law for them. That is toxic and yes, due to Cummings.
We are obviously not prioritizing suppressing the virus domestically since we are opening up schools, non-essential shops, home viewings to buy a house etc.
LBC just confirms his London centric view
Time to go on BBC or Sky
So I've had my hour or so on here and am off to do something else. Got two Zoom U3a meetings today for which to get ready, apart from anything else.
Might not have time to come back later today, even!
If the latter, then resolved infections picked up on antibody testing would also be included. I am booked for my antibody test tommorow.
Politicians have always lectured the electorate on how to live while giving themselves a let. Your gripe seems to be its someone you don't like who has been caught out, but there is nothing new in this. .