OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Just to crunch a couple of numbers, roughly 1% of the over-85 population has succumbed to coronavirus. I make it just under 17,000 deaths out of a population of 1.71 million as of May 15th.
There were just 460 deaths among the 37.8 million people aged 0-45 as of the same date.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
The thing about risk segmentation that most concerns me is that it seems to gloss over the infecting-other-people bit to focus exclusively on the whats-the-risk-to-this-single-person bit.
If my daughters are in Risk Category 5 (lowest risk) and I'm in Risk Category 3 and my Mum's in Risk Category 1... how does that work?
Or say, I'm in Risk Category 4 or 5 - that just means I'm okay Jack, doesn't it? I can still pick it up and infect people, and if my category has an effective R of, say, 2 or so, it's going to rip through the Risk Category 4 or 5's like wildfire. And anyone in contact with them gets infected as well, and the virus is not just endemic at a low level, but burning brightly with a source of however-many-million Typhoid Marys around.
Unless Risk Segmentation comes with near-perfect social segmentation (so everyone in Risk Category 3 MUST be perfectly separated from everyone in Risk Category 4 (who will be a greater source of the disease) AND Risk Category 2 (who will be more vulnerable) and that segmentation must be kept up permanently. You can't share a house, or a car, or meet them at work (eg in care homes), or even come into contact with them in shops.
It does look totally unworkable from here. I can see the attraction, and if it wasn't for the being-able-to-infect-everyone-else bit of the issue, it'd be great. But it's sort of like providing excellent crumple zones and airbags to people to go drink-driving: at the end of the day, we're going to be more worried about the poor bastards that are going to get hit by the well-protected drunk driver.
I haven’t seen my parents in months. They are 70+ , hence shielded. Surely this is how it works?
That’s just two categories. We’d need to have five with perfect shielding between all five, in both directions. You’d have to move apart anyone in existing households in differing risk categories (and children would almost invariably be in different risk categories to their parents - how would you prevent cross-contamination between those categories?
At the moment, we have a very crude two-level segmentation of “shielded” and everyone else, and the shielded are isolated from everyone else and each other. Going to five different categories with different lists of allowable things and effectively each their own pool of infectees absolutely needs to prevent cross-contamination. Ones cannot interact with Twos, Threes, Fours, and Fives; Twos cannot interact with Ones, Threes, Fours, and Fives, and so forth, otherwise the lower-risk-of-death groups (who have no lower risk of actually carrying the virus, and thus if they have less restrictions will have an R value above 1 and therefore rapidly spreading infectedness) will kill the higher risk groups. Despite those higher risk groups electing for less risky activities.
With one shielding barrier, it can hold. With multiple ones, no chance. In effect, that risk segmentation model would impose the actions and infection risk of the most infectious category on everyone else.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
The concurrent tracking of a five-point alert level and a five-test ‘gateway’ for moving through three steps of restriction lifting within a three phase strategy for recovery was certainly not designed for clarity. What one can say with confidence is that if the milestone for step two has been met on the exact day planned then either the criteria have been fudged or the new capability delivered isn’t actually ready or both.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Dunno, hence I am asking. But I think I get a cold about one year in three, and a minority of cold s are coronavirus, most are rinovirus, so it wouldn't be everybody.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
Ah, my mistake. Do antibodies work that way? I though they were very specific, but of course I am not an expert.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
Ah, my mistake. Do antibodies work that way? I though they were very specific, but of course I am not an expert.
I dunno either! Just how I interpreted Ishmael’s OP 🙂
They are given for different regions, and for some reason some regions go up to week 17, others to weeks 18, 19 and 20. The highest figure is 14.8% for London (week 18), which the report says reflects infections before mid April. The lowest are about 4% for the south-west and south-east.
They are given for different regions, and for some reason some regions go up to week 17, others to weeks 18, 19 and 20. The highest figure is 14.8% for London (week 18), which the report says reflects infections before mid April. The lowest are about 4% for the south-west and south-east.
Ah, figure 30. I remember when a version of that was popular on here.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
Ah, my mistake. Do antibodies work that way? I though they were very specific, but of course I am not an expert.
I dunno either! Just how I interpreted Ishmael’s OP 🙂
Honestly, I am not implying either - I simply don't know!
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
One of the issues that was reported early on was that some of the initial anti body tests that were being developed had a problem distinguishing between antibodies for Covid-19 and those for Dengue Fever. Given how rare Dengue Fever is in the UK I am not sure why this should have been seen as such an obstacle.
Of course we know that antibodies from one disease can confer protection for others and will presumably possibly show up in antibody tests. This was the whole basis of the origin of Jenner's work on Cowpox infection conferring immunity for Smallpox.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Wonder how long Alex Massie will keep his Spectator column? He must cause huge discomfort at the top, and among the readership.
In fairness, The Speccie has rarely baulked at publishing articles absolutely slagging off Boris. This one from Nick Cohen, previously of this parish, was a good effort.
Boris Johnson is a former editor of this newspaper, and as such has the right to be treated with a courtesy Spectator journalists do not normally extend to politicians who do not enjoy his advantages.
I am therefore writing with the caution of a lawyer and the deference of a palace flunkey when I say that Johnson showed this morning that he is a man without principle or shame. He is a braying charlatan, who lacks the courage even to be an honest bastard, for there is a kind of bastardly integrity in showing the world who you really are, but instead uses the tactics of the coward and the tricks of the fraudster to advance his worthless career.
Braying charlatan is how Scots see most Tories. In case they’ve ever wondered. Which they probably haven’t.
That’s why Ruth Davidson was so valuable, and why BoZo was so daft to scare her off. She was one of precious few Tories not seen as a braying charlatan north of the border.
The Tories won more MPs in Scotland under Jackson Carlaw last year than they did under Ruth Davidson in 2015.
They are also still polling higher for Holyrood next year than the 22% Ruth Davidson got in 2016.
She had a great result in 2017 but that was it really
The one great result you Tories have had in the last half century in Scotland was under Ruth Davidson.
But if you want to believe that Jackson Carlaw is the man to break the pattern, feel free! 😆
Thatcher got 22 Tory MPs in Scotland in 1979 and 21 MPs in Scotland in 1983, May and Davidson only got 13 Scottish Tory MPs in 2017
It might have escaped your notice, but Scotland is not the same country she was in 1979.
Ruth Davidson understood that. Vanishingly few Tories do.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
They are advertising for Track and Trace phone operatives on Indeed I believe. My student sons we're looking at it. More than that I don't know, presumably from home.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
Ah, my mistake. Do antibodies work that way? I though they were very specific, but of course I am not an expert.
I dunno either! Just how I interpreted Ishmael’s OP 🙂
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
Ah, my mistake. Do antibodies work that way? I though they were very specific, but of course I am not an expert.
I dunno either! Just how I interpreted Ishmael’s OP 🙂
Honestly, I am not implying either - I simply don't know!
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
They are advertising for Track and Trace phone operatives on Indeed I believe. My student sons we're looking at it. More than that I don't know, presumably from home.
That was already on my list, but thank you! Luckily there’s quite a lot of call-centres around Newcastle and Sunderland so they are also a possibility, although I don’t have a Geordie accent!
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
Wonder how long Alex Massie will keep his Spectator column? He must cause huge discomfort at the top, and among the readership.
In fairness, The Speccie has rarely baulked at publishing articles absolutely slagging off Boris. This one from Nick Cohen, previously of this parish, was a good effort.
Boris Johnson is a former editor of this newspaper, and as such has the right to be treated with a courtesy Spectator journalists do not normally extend to politicians who do not enjoy his advantages.
I am therefore writing with the caution of a lawyer and the deference of a palace flunkey when I say that Johnson showed this morning that he is a man without principle or shame. He is a braying charlatan, who lacks the courage even to be an honest bastard, for there is a kind of bastardly integrity in showing the world who you really are, but instead uses the tactics of the coward and the tricks of the fraudster to advance his worthless career.
Braying charlatan is how Scots see most Tories. In case they’ve ever wondered. Which they probably haven’t.
That’s why Ruth Davidson was so valuable, and why BoZo was so daft to scare her off. She was one of precious few Tories not seen as a braying charlatan north of the border.
The Tories won more MPs in Scotland under Jackson Carlaw last year than they did under Ruth Davidson in 2015.
They are also still polling higher for Holyrood next year than the 22% Ruth Davidson got in 2016.
She had a great result in 2017 but that was it really
The one great result you Tories have had in the last half century in Scotland was under Ruth Davidson.
But if you want to believe that Jackson Carlaw is the man to break the pattern, feel free! 😆
Thatcher got 22 Tory MPs in Scotland in 1979 and 21 MPs in Scotland in 1983, May and Davidson only got 13 Scottish Tory MPs in 2017
It might have escaped your notice, but Scotland is not the same country she was in 1979.
Ruth Davidson understood that. Vanishingly few Tories do.
Resting on laurels is a habit of the Tories on this site. I think this might be the most extreme example. Harking back to 2019 is one thing...but 1979 is quite another.
Maybe Johnson will jump at the same time, one can but hope.
Happy Monday could be the precursor for Second Wave Lockdown Tuesday in a couple of weeks. I have a feeling in my water that Boris is following expediency rather than science.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
They already deliver on JustEat!
That is the most significant piece of news I've seen today!
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
They are advertising for Track and Trace phone operatives on Indeed I believe. My student sons we're looking at it. More than that I don't know, presumably from home.
That was already on my list, but thank you! Luckily there’s quite a lot of call-centres around Newcastle and Sunderland so they are also a possibility, although I don’t have a Geordie accent!
Don't supermarket cash register operators sit down? I'm pretty sure the ones in the nearest Sainsbury's are seated.
Wonder how long Alex Massie will keep his Spectator column? He must cause huge discomfort at the top, and among the readership.
In fairness, The Speccie has rarely baulked at publishing articles absolutely slagging off Boris. This one from Nick Cohen, previously of this parish, was a good effort.
Boris Johnson is a former editor of this newspaper, and as such has the right to be treated with a courtesy Spectator journalists do not normally extend to politicians who do not enjoy his advantages.
I am therefore writing with the caution of a lawyer and the deference of a palace flunkey when I say that Johnson showed this morning that he is a man without principle or shame. He is a braying charlatan, who lacks the courage even to be an honest bastard, for there is a kind of bastardly integrity in showing the world who you really are, but instead uses the tactics of the coward and the tricks of the fraudster to advance his worthless career.
Braying charlatan is how Scots see most Tories. In case they’ve ever wondered. Which they probably haven’t.
That’s why Ruth Davidson was so valuable, and why BoZo was so daft to scare her off. She was one of precious few Tories not seen as a braying charlatan north of the border.
The Tories won more MPs in Scotland under Jackson Carlaw last year than they did under Ruth Davidson in 2015.
They are also still polling higher for Holyrood next year than the 22% Ruth Davidson got in 2016.
She had a great result in 2017 but that was it really
The one great result you Tories have had in the last half century in Scotland was under Ruth Davidson.
But if you want to believe that Jackson Carlaw is the man to break the pattern, feel free! 😆
Thatcher got 22 Tory MPs in Scotland in 1979 and 21 MPs in Scotland in 1983, May and Davidson only got 13 Scottish Tory MPs in 2017
It might have escaped your notice, but Scotland is not the same country she was in 1979.
Ruth Davidson understood that. Vanishingly few Tories do.
Resting on laurels is a habit of the Tories on this site. I think this might be the most extreme example. Harking back to 2019 is one thing...but 1979 is quite another.
Par for the course for HY. He knows zilch about Scottish politics, and he doesn’t give a fig about frequently illustrating that fact. Fun guy!
The only thing it suggests is that the Mail is gradually edging back on-side. In 6 months time - who knows? "Changed his mind" is a strong possibility.
Weather again threatens the launch window for a SpaceX rocket to carry NASA astronauts on the first crewed spaceflight to take off from US soil in nearly a decade.
"Saturday and Sunday could turn out to have very similar weather as Wednesday did," CNN meteorologist Haley Brink said, referring to this week's scrubbed launch. "We may be waiting on a game-time decision again this weekend.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
They are advertising for Track and Trace phone operatives on Indeed I believe. My student sons we're looking at it. More than that I don't know, presumably from home.
That was already on my list, but thank you! Luckily there’s quite a lot of call-centres around Newcastle and Sunderland so they are also a possibility, although I don’t have a Geordie accent!
NHS Track and Trace should be a fairly relaxed gig I would have thought. Bearing in mind the function I would have thought home working would be the order of the day. Packing a thousand operatives into a call centre might defeat the objective.
The only thing it suggests is that the Mail is gradually edging back on-side. In 6 months time - who knows? "Changed his mind" is a strong possibility.
That Cummings "announcement" has more caveats than Labour's GE Brexit policy....
However, I think he goes when Boris goes, and if we get through worst of coronavirus by the end of the year and some sort of Brexit deal, then 2021. Or coronavirus shit show reappears in autumn, no vaccine, no deal Brexit, and they are forced out in 2021.
Farcical scenes. So I can't walk 5 yards to my car, drive 12 miles, have contact with no-one else and can't visit my parents.
FO turtle. You are taking the piss.
It is clear what the government / devolve administrations are trying to do i.e. give people more freedom, be able to see their family and loved ones, but try and minimize massive widespread network of socialising / parties, which are exactly the sort of events that cause super spreading.
The problem is life is complicated and things are nuanced. People need to use their common sense....oh wait people claim they don't have any.
I personally would prefer the authorities laid out the really high risk activities and said you need to avoid these, and try to take sensible steps to minimize the low / medium risk activities...failure as us as a society to do so, will lead to harsh lockdown again, so think about your actions and your responsibilities.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
My last Gregg's was a vegan sausage roll in Aberdeen on March 11th.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
One of the issues that was reported early on was that some of the initial anti body tests that were being developed had a problem distinguishing between antibodies for Covid-19 and those for Dengue Fever. Given how rare Dengue Fever is in the UK I am not sure why this should have been seen as such an obstacle.
Of course we know that antibodies from one disease can confer protection for others and will presumably possibly show up in antibody tests. This was the whole basis of the origin of Jenner's work on Cowpox infection conferring immunity for Smallpox.
Don't people get immunised for dengue when they go to the tropics? (I have no idea, actually, but it might be an issue.)
If Big Dom was really going to throw in the towel in 6 months, why would Boris / cabinet fight so hard to keep him. It makes zero sense to burn all that political capital for somebody on their way out. Especially when you could spin sacking him in your favour, showing leadership, showing the Tories aren't about protecting the powerful, etc.
If he does go, I would be massively pissed off if I was a cabinet member who sought to defend him over the past week.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
One of the issues that was reported early on was that some of the initial anti body tests that were being developed had a problem distinguishing between antibodies for Covid-19 and those for Dengue Fever. Given how rare Dengue Fever is in the UK I am not sure why this should have been seen as such an obstacle.
Of course we know that antibodies from one disease can confer protection for others and will presumably possibly show up in antibody tests. This was the whole basis of the origin of Jenner's work on Cowpox infection conferring immunity for Smallpox.
Don't people get immunised for dengue when they go to the tropics? (I have no idea, actually, but it might be an issue.)
No there is no vaccination against Dengue Fever. I was due to travel down to Rio in February for business but decided not to go in the end. I had a load of jabs in preparation for going (8 in total) but the one they warned me about was Dengue Fever because there has been a serious outbreak down there in the last few years and there is no vaccine.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
One of the issues that was reported early on was that some of the initial anti body tests that were being developed had a problem distinguishing between antibodies for Covid-19 and those for Dengue Fever. Given how rare Dengue Fever is in the UK I am not sure why this should have been seen as such an obstacle.
Of course we know that antibodies from one disease can confer protection for others and will presumably possibly show up in antibody tests. This was the whole basis of the origin of Jenner's work on Cowpox infection conferring immunity for Smallpox.
Don't people get immunised for dengue when they go to the tropics? (I have no idea, actually, but it might be an issue.)
No there is no vaccination against Dengue Fever. I was due to travel down to Rio in February for business but decided not to go in the end. I had a load of jabs in preparation for going (8 in total) but the one they warned me about was Dengue Fever because there has been a serious outbreak down there in the last few years and there is no vaccine.
Farcical scenes. So I can't walk 5 yards to my car, drive 12 miles, have contact with no-one else and can't visit my parents.
FO turtle. You are taking the piss.
It is clear what the government / devolve administrations are trying to do i.e. give people more freedom, be able to see their family and loved ones, but try and minimize massive widespread network of socialising / parties, which are exactly the sort of events that cause super spreading.
The problem is life is complicated and things are nuanced. People need to use their common sense....oh wait people claim they don't have any.
I personally would prefer the authorities laid out the really high risk activities and said you need to avoid these, and try to take sensible steps to minimize the low / medium risk activities...failure as us as a society to do so, will lead to harsh lockdown again, so think about your actions and your responsibilities.
You are spot on. This is exactly how Govt should play it.
Instead we get this bullshit. Is that 5 miles on the road or as the crow flies?
Good luck with enforcement of that one.
I have been more than happy to abide by lockdown rules. But this is a piss take.
Wasn't he supposed to stand down just before the last crash out date?
I'm not sure anyone would be stupid enough to believe a word he says. You might as well believe a vampire who's telling you he's off to donate at the blood bank.
Wasn't he supposed to stand down just before the last crash out date?
You're right.
Does he strike you as the sort of person to just step away from his position of power by his own volition....given he is somebody who thinks the "establishment" want to stop brexit, that the civil service is fundamentally broken, that the country needs a massively revolutionary overhaul and that the media needs a rocket up their arse.
In the meantime the usuall daily figures are showing that each of the last two days the death count in the UK appears to have exceeded the total death count for Spain, France, Italy and Germany combined. 789 deaths in the UK over two days is not small beer .
Other countries may be out of the woods, but the UK still seems to be lagging well behind yet with a government which doesn't want to tacitly admit to that by keeping restrictions in place while other more successful countries are seen to ease theirs.
In the meantime the usuall daily figures are showing that each of the last two days the death count in the UK appears to have exceeded the total death count for Spain, France, Italy and Germany combined. 789 deaths in the UK over two days is not small beer .
Other countries may be out of the woods, but the UK still seems to be lagging well behind yet with a government which doesn't want to tacitly admit to that by keeping restrictions in place while other more successful countries are seen to ease theirs.
Do you have a sense of the relative completeness of those daily figures? The fact the Spanish number had to be revised up by a mere 12,000 doesn't give one much confidence in them.
Wasn't he supposed to stand down just before the last crash out date?
You're right.
And I think part of the point of that mad job advert he did (remember that? Those were the days...) was to find some Diddy Doms so he could step back at the end of this year.
Which is all a bit odd if Brexit is going to be a Brilliant Opportunity to remake things for the better.
But the "I'm going in six months" claim makes a bit of sense on his terms. There are voices who think that the important thing about not going this week is winning the fight as a culture war fight. Rubbish for his successors, but who cares about the future?
Or he could be messing with people's brains again. Who knows?
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
One of the issues that was reported early on was that some of the initial anti body tests that were being developed had a problem distinguishing between antibodies for Covid-19 and those for Dengue Fever. Given how rare Dengue Fever is in the UK I am not sure why this should have been seen as such an obstacle.
Of course we know that antibodies from one disease can confer protection for others and will presumably possibly show up in antibody tests. This was the whole basis of the origin of Jenner's work on Cowpox infection conferring immunity for Smallpox.
Don't people get immunised for dengue when they go to the tropics? (I have no idea, actually, but it might be an issue.)
No there is no vaccination against Dengue Fever. I was due to travel down to Rio in February for business but decided not to go in the end. I had a load of jabs in preparation for going (8 in total) but the one they warned me about was Dengue Fever because there has been a serious outbreak down there in the last few years and there is no vaccine.
On Wednesday, a system update with new data sent in by civil registries turned up 12,000 more excess deaths than were previously known. Of these, 7,300 were in Catalonia (mostly in Barcelona), 2,500 in the Madrid region and 800 in Castilla-La Mancha.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
My last Gregg's was a vegan sausage roll in Aberdeen on March 11th.
#cravings
Why do vegans have to have food that looks like meat....eg nut cutlet,vegan sausage roll and so on and so forth...
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
My last Gregg's was a vegan sausage roll in Aberdeen on March 11th.
#cravings
Why do vegans have to have food that looks like meat....eg nut cutlet,vegan sausage roll and so on and so forth...
Channeling Kant, being a vegetarian or vegan only has moral worth if you like eating meat
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
My last Gregg's was a vegan sausage roll in Aberdeen on March 11th.
#cravings
Why do vegans have to have food that looks like meat....eg nut cutlet,vegan sausage roll and so on and so forth...
Farcical scenes. So I can't walk 5 yards to my car, drive 12 miles, have contact with no-one else and can't visit my parents.
FO turtle. You are taking the piss.
It is clear what the government / devolve administrations are trying to do i.e. give people more freedom, be able to see their family and loved ones, but try and minimize massive widespread network of socialising / parties, which are exactly the sort of events that cause super spreading.
The problem is life is complicated and things are nuanced. People need to use their common sense....oh wait people claim they don't have any.
I personally would prefer the authorities laid out the really high risk activities and said you need to avoid these, and try to take sensible steps to minimize the low / medium risk activities...failure as us as a society to do so, will lead to harsh lockdown again, so think about your actions and your responsibilities.
You are spot on. This is exactly how Govt should play it.
Instead we get this bullshit. Is that 5 miles on the road or as the crow flies?
Good luck with enforcement of that one.
I have been more than happy to abide by lockdown rules. But this is a piss take.
I have tonight been on the phone to a friend who is due to exchange/complete her house sale in England at the top of a chain of 3 moves on Monday and has just had a letter from Gwynedd Council which claims that she cannot temporarily move into her caravan on the Welsh coast but should delay the house sale instead, in which case the whole chain collapses.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
My last Gregg's was a vegan sausage roll in Aberdeen on March 11th.
#cravings
Why do vegans have to have food that looks like meat....eg nut cutlet,vegan sausage roll and so on and so forth...
I’m not a vegan or even a vegetarian but the Greggs vegan sausage roll and vegan steak beak are very good.
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
My last Gregg's was a vegan sausage roll in Aberdeen on March 11th.
#cravings
Why do vegans have to have food that looks like meat....eg nut cutlet,vegan sausage roll and so on and so forth...
Channeling Kant, being a vegetarian or vegan only has moral worth if you like eating meat
The pain and suffering of the denial one assumes...
Off topic: does anyone have any “out-there” ideas for what kind of temporary full-time or permanent part-time jobs I could apply for from next week that don’t involve a lot of standing? Unfortunately due to some medical issues standing for long periods of time, such as in a supermarket, is difficult.
Everyone is shopping online. Delivery driver?
Actually, offering a delivery service for Greggs sausage rolls and steak bakes could be a lucrative business.
My last Gregg's was a vegan sausage roll in Aberdeen on March 11th.
#cravings
Why do vegans have to have food that looks like meat....eg nut cutlet,vegan sausage roll and so on and so forth...
Speaking as a pescatarian, I have not really eaten meat or poultry since three years old. I simply never liked such food - but the only occasional exception to that was a sausage , really because the texture was so different. The ready availability of Veggie Sausages for many years has meant that I have now been able to avoid meat totally for quite a while.
Regarding the play "The House", it is good to see a contemporary dramatic production go to the trouble to try to get the 1970s English accents right. A bit like Brideshead Revisited which was made in 1981 and set in the 1920s.
Dontcha just.love the lack.of self awareness of Sir Keir Starmer complaining about the wasted week arguing about Cummings... and who the feck was orchestrating it behind the scenes ffs.
Wonder how long Alex Massie will keep his Spectator column? He must cause huge discomfort at the top, and among the readership.
In fairness, The Speccie has rarely baulked at publishing articles absolutely slagging off Boris. This one from Nick Cohen, previously of this parish, was a good effort.
Boris Johnson is a former editor of this newspaper, and as such has the right to be treated with a courtesy Spectator journalists do not normally extend to politicians who do not enjoy his advantages.
I am therefore writing with the caution of a lawyer and the deference of a palace flunkey when I say that Johnson showed this morning that he is a man without principle or shame. He is a braying charlatan, who lacks the courage even to be an honest bastard, for there is a kind of bastardly integrity in showing the world who you really are, but instead uses the tactics of the coward and the tricks of the fraudster to advance his worthless career.
Braying charlatan is how Scots see most Tories. In case they’ve ever wondered. Which they probably haven’t.
That’s why Ruth Davidson was so valuable, and why BoZo was so daft to scare her off. She was one of precious few Tories not seen as a braying charlatan north of the border.
The Tories won more MPs in Scotland under Jackson Carlaw last year than they did under Ruth Davidson in 2015.
They are also still polling higher for Holyrood next year than the 22% Ruth Davidson got in 2016.
She had a great result in 2017 but that was it really
The one great result you Tories have had in the last half century in Scotland was under Ruth Davidson.
But if you want to believe that Jackson Carlaw is the man to break the pattern, feel free! 😆
Thatcher got 22 Tory MPs in Scotland in 1979 and 21 MPs in Scotland in 1983, May and Davidson only got 13 Scottish Tory MPs in 2017
It might have escaped your notice, but Scotland is not the same country she was in 1979.
Ruth Davidson understood that. Vanishingly few Tories do.
Yes it is, just the SNP are now the largest party in Scotland whereas the Labour Party were the largest party in Scotland then.
In both 1979 and 2019 there was a UK wide Tory majority but not in Scotland.
In 1979 and 1983 the Tories got 31% and 28.4% in Scotland and in 2017 the Tories got 28.6% in Scotland, so little different.
I was just saying Thatcher won slightly more MPs in 1979 and 1983 than May and Davidson did in 2017 in Scotland
In the meantime the usuall daily figures are showing that each of the last two days the death count in the UK appears to have exceeded the total death count for Spain, France, Italy and Germany combined. 789 deaths in the UK over two days is not small beer .
Other countries may be out of the woods, but the UK still seems to be lagging well behind yet with a government which doesn't want to tacitly admit to that by keeping restrictions in place while other more successful countries are seen to ease theirs.
Do you have a sense of the relative completeness of those daily figures? The fact the Spanish number had to be revised up by a mere 12,000 doesn't give one much confidence in them.
It doesn't really change the broad picture in terms of the point I was making, but if you insist I'll restate the point without Spain. In each of the last two days the death count in the UK appears to have been double the total death count for France, Italy and Germany combined. In per capita terms that's a 6 fold difference.
I have posted several times the reports from last year that Cummings wanted to quit after his operation in February. He was only apparently still in the job because Boris persuaded him to delay the op from the autumn in order to choreograph his election campaign
So it's no surprise he will be leaving soon, and would have been anyway, regardless of the current witch hunt
If you are alone and self isolating because of a severe clinical vulnerability how will you feel tonight as Britain's newspapers revel in the end of lockdown and "firing up the barbecue"?
We were all in together in a national effort until we weren't.
If you are alone and self isolating because of a severe clinical vulnerability how will you feel tonight as Britain's newspapers revel in the end of lockdown and "firing up the barbecue"?
We were all in together in a national effort until we weren't.
We live next door to an 87 year old lady. She's not been out for ten weeks. Tonight at the NHS clap she said she was worried about the lockdown being ended too soon, She also said, rather matter of factly, she fell over and hit her head last week throwing our football back, which seemed a bit strange
All get totally pissed in the gardens from Monday tomorrow seems an almighty gamble to me, given we apparently still don't think schools can go properly back (almost zero chance of transmission).
I'm optimistic about our immunity levels but boy this smacks of political need to announce something big that is at least three weeks too soon.
OK: if other coronaviruses (the common cold ones) confer immunity, will those who have that immunity look as if they have covid antibodies? If our immune systems can't tell the difference, can our scientists?
Wouldn't they be finding many many more people with the antibodies if that were the case? They'd even be finding them in samples taken before the outbreak occurred.
Isn’t Ishmael saying the opposite of that?
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
One of the issues that was reported early on was that some of the initial anti body tests that were being developed had a problem distinguishing between antibodies for Covid-19 and those for Dengue Fever. Given how rare Dengue Fever is in the UK I am not sure why this should have been seen as such an obstacle.
Of course we know that antibodies from one disease can confer protection for others and will presumably possibly show up in antibody tests. This was the whole basis of the origin of Jenner's work on Cowpox infection conferring immunity for Smallpox.
Don't people get immunised for dengue when they go to the tropics? (I have no idea, actually, but it might be an issue.)
No there is no vaccination against Dengue Fever. I was due to travel down to Rio in February for business but decided not to go in the end. I had a load of jabs in preparation for going (8 in total) but the one they warned me about was Dengue Fever because there has been a serious outbreak down there in the last few years and there is no vaccine.
Strangely the very same CDC site under its destination listing for Rio states there is no vaccine for Dengue Fever. It is also the UK Foreign Office line.
Brexit delivered in January, no extension to the transition period beyond December and WTO terms Brexit, job done for Cummings.
He has only ever cared about Brexit not the Tory Party, he will leave having done the former, he could not care about what happens to the latter
You could well be right. Except... is that the limit of his ambition? Set up a WTO Brexit and... just walk? Not setting up the bright technological future? Not reducing the BBC to a smoldering crater? Not spreading a better life away from London and the South East to the rest of the country?
Just destroy the previous UK-EU membership relationship, block a close future relationship, wait for the clock to strike midnight and just walk rather than be around to build the future?
If it were anyone else, one would think "that's nuts" and "it's nuts that anyone would knowingly go along with this".
But then this part of the world has seemed pretty nuts for a while.
If you are alone and self isolating because of a severe clinical vulnerability how will you feel tonight as Britain's newspapers revel in the end of lockdown and "firing up the barbecue"?
We were all in together in a national effort until we weren't.
Possibly relieved that there's light at the end of the tunnel?
We were never supposed to all be in it together for the whole time, it was always a case that the severe clinical vulnerable individuals get shielded more. Many people have been very hard at work and having no fun while others are at home too - how do you think they feel?
We've very strictly observed lockdown even cancelling our daughter's birthday party. Not seen anyone whatsoever since this began. Next week with the restrictions being loosened we're hosting a barbecue all according to the rules and frankly its something everyone needs by now.
If you are alone and self isolating because of a severe clinical vulnerability how will you feel tonight as Britain's newspapers revel in the end of lockdown and "firing up the barbecue"?
We were all in together in a national effort until we weren't.
Possibly relieved that there's light at the end of the tunnel?
We were never supposed to all be in it together for the whole time, it was always a case that the severe clinical vulnerable individuals get shielded more. Many people have been very hard at work and having no fun while others are at home too - how do you think they feel?
We've very strictly observed lockdown even cancelling our daughter's birthday party. Not seen anyone whatsoever since this began. Next week with the restrictions being loosened we're hosting a barbecue all according to the rules and frankly its something everyone needs by now.
"Many people have been very hard at work and having no fun while others are at home too - how do you think they feel?"
If you are alone and self isolating because of a severe clinical vulnerability how will you feel tonight as Britain's newspapers revel in the end of lockdown and "firing up the barbecue"?
We were all in together in a national effort until we weren't.
There's nothing anyone can do about that unfortunately. We can't all stay locked down just to show solidarity with people with serious health conditions.
On Wednesday, a system update with new data sent in by civil registries turned up 12,000 more excess deaths than were previously known. Of these, 7,300 were in Catalonia (mostly in Barcelona), 2,500 in the Madrid region and 800 in Castilla-La Mancha.
I don't get the from Monday? Why not say from tomorrow, because in terms of public health / R value, will make very little difference.
No idea. Makes no difference. The handful of people who haven't been meeting up in gardens in last few days for a bbq, will now do it tomorrow and Saturday.
I don't get the from Monday? Why not say from tomorrow, because in terms of public health / R value, will make very little difference.
My guess would be to provide time to communicate it properly rather than have eg newspapers suggest "lockdown has been lifted" and people going crazy before realising they've misunderstood.
Plus loosening restrictions on a Monday will mean people aren't going crazy over the weekend.
Though in reality people will start adjusting to new regulations immediately and not wait. Its like driving through a 30 zone and seeing a 40 sign just ahead - theoretically you should stay at 30 until you hit the 40 sign and then start accelerating but reality is many/most cars will start accelerating before they reach the sign.
If you are alone and self isolating because of a severe clinical vulnerability how will you feel tonight as Britain's newspapers revel in the end of lockdown and "firing up the barbecue"?
We were all in together in a national effort until we weren't.
There's nothing anyone can do about that unfortunately. We can't all stay locked down just to show solidarity with people with serious health conditions.
No, but the papers could be a bit less 'way hey hey and here we go EVERYONE" about it.
Comments
There were just 460 deaths among the 37.8 million people aged 0-45 as of the same date.
At the moment, we have a very crude two-level segmentation of “shielded” and everyone else, and the shielded are isolated from everyone else and each other. Going to five different categories with different lists of allowable things and effectively each their own pool of infectees absolutely needs to prevent cross-contamination. Ones cannot interact with Twos, Threes, Fours, and Fives; Twos cannot interact with Ones, Threes, Fours, and Fives, and so forth, otherwise the lower-risk-of-death groups (who have no lower risk of actually carrying the virus, and thus if they have less restrictions will have an R value above 1 and therefore rapidly spreading infectedness) will kill the higher risk groups. Despite those higher risk groups electing for less risky activities.
With one shielding barrier, it can hold. With multiple ones, no chance. In effect, that risk segmentation model would impose the actions and infection risk of the most infectious category on everyone else.
That those with immunity from other sources will NOT exhibit CV19 antibodies.
That’s how I read his post anyway.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888254/COVID19_Epidemiological_Summary_w22_Final.pdf
They are given for different regions, and for some reason some regions go up to week 17, others to weeks 18, 19 and 20. The highest figure is 14.8% for London (week 18), which the report says reflects infections before mid April. The lowest are about 4% for the south-west and south-east.
I am not a drinker, but I could murder a pint in a pub!
Of course we know that antibodies from one disease can confer protection for others and will presumably possibly show up in antibody tests. This was the whole basis of the origin of Jenner's work on Cowpox infection conferring immunity for Smallpox.
Ruth Davidson understood that. Vanishingly few Tories do.
https://twitter.com/bbchelena/status/1266103344055103488?s=21
I wouldn’t place much credence in it.
Please please boffins: come up with a vaccine.
Happy Monday could be the precursor for Second Wave Lockdown Tuesday in a couple of weeks. I have a feeling in my water that Boris is following expediency rather than science.
And I can't believe so much effort would have been expended on a man ticking off the days to his departure.
Edit - maybe not so gradually:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8365721/Ofcom-receives-247-complaints-Emily-Maitlis-impartial-rant-Dominic-Cummings.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8366643/Chris-Whitty-Sir-Patrick-Vallance-say-dont-want-involved-Cummings-row.html
The headlines are more strident than the URLs.
"Saturday and Sunday could turn out to have very similar weather as Wednesday did," CNN meteorologist Haley Brink said, referring to this week's scrubbed launch. "We may be waiting on a game-time decision again this weekend.
FO turtle. You are taking the piss.
And from the comments so are their readers.....
However, I think he goes when Boris goes, and if we get through worst of coronavirus by the end of the year and some sort of Brexit deal, then 2021. Or coronavirus shit show reappears in autumn, no vaccine, no deal Brexit, and they are forced out in 2021.
You're right that the numbers seem too large to be just from the Balaerics and the Canaries.
The problem is life is complicated and things are nuanced. People need to use their common sense....oh wait people claim they don't have any.
I personally would prefer the authorities laid out the really high risk activities and said you need to avoid these, and try to take sensible steps to minimize the low / medium risk activities...failure as us as a society to do so, will lead to harsh lockdown again, so think about your actions and your responsibilities.
#cravings
If he does go, I would be massively pissed off if I was a cabinet member who sought to defend him over the past week.
Instead we get this bullshit. Is that 5 miles on the road or as the crow flies?
Good luck with enforcement of that one.
I have been more than happy to abide by lockdown rules. But this is a piss take.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-spain-tally/spain-revises-coronavirus-death-toll-down-by-nearly-2000-idUKKBN2311M1
In the meantime the usuall daily figures are showing that each of the last two days the death count in the UK appears to have exceeded the total death count for Spain, France, Italy and Germany combined. 789 deaths in the UK over two days is not small beer .
Other countries may be out of the woods, but the UK still seems to be lagging well behind yet with a government which doesn't want to tacitly admit to that by keeping restrictions in place while other more successful countries are seen to ease theirs.
Which is all a bit odd if Brexit is going to be a Brilliant Opportunity to remake things for the better.
But the "I'm going in six months" claim makes a bit of sense on his terms. There are voices who think that the important thing about not going this week is winning the fight as a culture war fight. Rubbish for his successors, but who cares about the future?
Or he could be messing with people's brains again. Who knows?
https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/prevention/dengue-vaccine.html
On Wednesday, a system update with new data sent in by civil registries turned up 12,000 more excess deaths than were previously known. Of these, 7,300 were in Catalonia (mostly in Barcelona), 2,500 in the Madrid region and 800 in Castilla-La Mancha.
https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-28/spains-excess-deaths-during-coronavirus-crisis-reach-43000.html
Not exactly "in the sticks" is it? If they can't measure accurately there....
It is nationalist anti-English bullshit.
In both 1979 and 2019 there was a UK wide Tory majority but not in Scotland.
In 1979 and 1983 the Tories got 31% and 28.4% in Scotland and in 2017 the Tories got 28.6% in Scotland, so little different.
I was just saying Thatcher won slightly more MPs in 1979 and 1983 than May and Davidson did in 2017 in Scotland
And we'll be able to go and see her soon, as Wor Lass has been reassessed and advised that she doesn't need to shield any more.
Good night all.
He has only ever cared about Brexit not the Tory Party, he will leave having done the former, he could not care about what happens to the latter
etc.
So it's no surprise he will be leaving soon, and would have been anyway, regardless of the current witch hunt
We were all in together in a national effort until we weren't.
I'm optimistic about our immunity levels but boy this smacks of political need to announce something big that is at least three weeks too soon.
Just destroy the previous UK-EU membership relationship, block a close future relationship, wait for the clock to strike midnight and just walk rather than be around to build the future?
If it were anyone else, one would think "that's nuts" and "it's nuts that anyone would knowingly go along with this".
But then this part of the world has seemed pretty nuts for a while.
We were never supposed to all be in it together for the whole time, it was always a case that the severe clinical vulnerable individuals get shielded more. Many people have been very hard at work and having no fun while others are at home too - how do you think they feel?
We've very strictly observed lockdown even cancelling our daughter's birthday party. Not seen anyone whatsoever since this began. Next week with the restrictions being loosened we're hosting a barbecue all according to the rules and frankly its something everyone needs by now.
Fair point.
in terms of public health / R value, will make very little difference.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Plus loosening restrictions on a Monday will mean people aren't going crazy over the weekend.
Though in reality people will start adjusting to new regulations immediately and not wait. Its like driving through a 30 zone and seeing a 40 sign just ahead - theoretically you should stay at 30 until you hit the 40 sign and then start accelerating but reality is many/most cars will start accelerating before they reach the sign.