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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s National Theatre at Home re-run of the The House is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s National Theatre at Home re-run of the The House is a must watch for all political nerds
Tonight on YouTube starting at 7pm there’s a rerun of what to me is best play about politics in years – James Graham’s “This House” chronicling the period 1974 until Mrs. Thatcher’s victory in 1979.
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What a difference from last year when Bozo was desperate to throw away his majority.
Bad as things may have been in the UK, they never got that bad...
Now as short as 1/12 in a place.
Ladbrokes: 4/1 go, 1/7 stay
PP/Betfair: 5/1 go, 1/10 stay
Starsports: 11/2 go, 1/12 stay
Scotland explicitly says no more than 2 households at a time.
My interpretation of the England rules recognises that although households must keep 2m apart, there is not necessarily a max of 2 households but that the test is applied at a max of 6 people.
EG
Household A 1 person
Household B 2 persons
Household C 3 people
So England more flexible in theory - but CHECK THE RULES!
Off topic: this would have been big news under other circumstances: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52841223
Should be a market on the last date when moron journos ask a Dom question.
UK wide = 0.82
Scotland = 0.82
NI = 1.19 (numerically an uptick of 5 cases/day in the 7dra)
Wales = 0.87
London = 0.75
Doubt it's going to get any better than that tbh. Looking at the German numbers in particular, it just isn't going to drop to some low figure that quickly wipes the virus down to nothing.
Did I get that wrong, or did he really say that in all seriousness?
It also reminds us, without labouring the point, of jobs for life, and how shop floor workers could be trained for technical or managerial roles, and sent around the world.
The programme shows how IBM landed on Greenock almost by chance, and the influence of Hector McNeil MP (although the programme does not mention McNeil's former PS, Guy Burgess of the Cambridge spy ring) in persuading IBM.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jltz/silicon-glen-from-ships-to-microchips
Presumably it will treated like perjury.
Probably as better players than me might be in close contact for extended time in the centre of the fairways.
But the more pertinent question may be, how likely is it that someone who isn't all that keen on 14 days of isolation and being registered with authorities as a possible case, will be completely honest?
And how sensible is it to point out this 'loophole' to everyone in advance?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-52834491#
The combination of one rule for us, one rule for them and shop your neighbours on Police helplines
Thankfully, they can probably get away with a lower success rate and still keep infection reasonably under control.
I went to see it at the National Theatre when I was working in London - one of the best productions I have ever seen, so keen to see it again on TV.
Interesting new version of a FOIA request ...
Although its voluntary for everyone.
The Prime Minister's announcement on outdoor gatherings is a fine example of the law catching up with reality. It's been honoured more in the breach than the observance in my part of London since Easter in all honesty and certainly since the VE Day holiday.
It changes nothing except to recognise a reality. Unfortunately we aren't seeing the slides on passenger numbers but, and I stress this is anecdotal, I saw a tube travelling east from and one travelling west to East Ham and counted six passengers in total on the two services.
Buses are also quiet and much quieter than normal.
Good to case the number of new cases nicely below 2000 but the death numbers perhaps not quite so inspiring. As others have said, public compliance with and confidence in lockdown has been eroded so all Johnson can do is bend with the tide and ease further rightly or wrongly.
It will be interesting to see school attendances next week and I imagine the decision to re-start the PL season will have been well received in Downing Street. If people have racing and football to watch they'll be too busy to be unpleasant to Government Ministers and advisers.
If so, you can't quibble about the details because you don't know who or what occasion they're talking about.
https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1266050139891945473?s=20
Trains, buses really quiet. More cars around.
I have just had a couple of friends around for distanced tea / coffee.
Though one of our Ashfield Independent Councillors (Deputy Leader) is in stuck for parking his caravan across both halves of a shared drive, blocking his neighbours ease of exit in case of fire. Moron. That will go straight up the nose of a lot of locals. Tom Hollis for the high jump.
Will this continue? I think we'll have a better idea by July, after the mass re-opening of the shops, but I am feeling cautiously optimistic for a change. Perhaps the theories about much of the population having reduced or zero susceptibility to the virus will turn out to be true?
All non partisans will know Whitty and Valance think Cummings broke the rules and should have apologised/resigned/been sacked. We dont necessarily need them to say it.
Them not wanting to be drawn into the political debate whilst they are in their professional roles during a crisis is completely genuine and probably should be respected.
They will damn Cummings and give their real thoughts when the inquiry comes or in their memoirs.
I also have the sense the Police were initially quite proactive in clearing the local parks but have been much less so since Easter.
"This article has been amended to take into account a one-off revision to Spanish data on Thursday. This meant the UK now has the second-highest death rate from coronavirus after Spain rather than the highest rate as originally reported. This article has been modified to replace a chart linking excess deaths to lockdown dates with one linking excess deaths per million."
One-off LOL. Many countries will do it, as we all know because inconsistencies have been reported.
How to faceplant, demonstrated. A pity - they were one of the better sources.
He can go suck his lollipop.
The FT analysis shows that the UK's excess deaths figure remains the highest whether younger people are excluded or the analysis is limited to pensioners.
Suppose you wanted only 10% to be susceptible, so that the 7% that have apparently been infected would be enough to take R below 1. That means R0 would have to be not 2.4, but 10 times larger. It would have to be 24, and only look like 2.4 because only a tenth of the people who would have been infected were susceptible.
But there isn't a virus known that has an R0 anywhere near that high. Measles has one of about 15. And it's very doubtful whether the kind of contact tracing that has been done with coronavirus in some countries would be feasible with an R0 of 24. For example measles can infect people who enter a room where someone infectious has been several hours earlier.
And of course we know of a coronavirus superspreader event in which nearly 90% of the people present were infected.
Actually, re-reading your comment - I think you explained that; R would have to be unfeasibly high.
That Salford move isn't working then.
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1266069224721510401?s=21
Although presumably Twitter would just delete his tweets rather than fact check them....
Chief Advisor to the PM is in the top 10 political jobs in the country.
Pathetic whataboutery to pretend they should be treated the same, and if they arent its because of a north south bias!
I suppose there's the small point the Deputy Mayor of Liverpool isn't quite as powerful as the PM's principal adviser, would you say?
Of course, the "and actually the death rate is one in ten thousand" was obvious mince - even one in one thousand was obviously overoptimistic, but the core idea of people throwing it off without needing to generate antibodies (possibly linked with mild doses) seemed possible.
Unfortunately, there's recently been a full-on study checking out everyone who's had even mild symptoms in a hospital in France here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20101832v2
Everyone who has had it at all, even mildly or asymptomatically, has produced antibodies(*). It's not very plausible to go from that finding to the hoped-for possibility that many of us are naturally immune, sadly. Unless some very clear evidence to the contrary comes up, of course.
(*) - Actually, there was one out of 160 who didn't register antibodies. Given the 99.4% illness-to-antibodies result, it's vastly more likely that this was a double false negative than an actual non-antibody-immunity. Even if not, a sub-one-percent natural immunity rate isn't that helpful overall.
I don't believe it is actually north/south bias, it is left/right bias.
Evening all.
"The neutralizing activity of the antibodies increased overtime"
If the Labour deputy mayor has to answer to anyone, I suggest we leave it to the voters.
DC isn't even a politician, he is an employee.
If the vast majority of the population is both vulnerable to the disease and hasn't yet had it, then we should have seen cases starting to trend upwards again by now. Especially in London, where the numbers of new cases and the rate of transmission seem to have fallen to especially low levels relative to other regions, despite its particularly high population density. So, what's going on?
Sensible to keep relaxing lockdown as sensibly as possible and if the advice is that outdoors is better than indoors then better to have people outside in each others gardens enjoying the summer and having a barbecue than to be inside shopping complexes because they're open and you're bored out of your mind and shopping is a leisure activity permitted.
If plates, glasses and social distancing from your friends while you go inside for a whizz are your greatest risks then you're doing well - I'm sure browsing the supermarket carries greater risk.
Id imagine most Labour fans would be quite happy to have more power and attention and scrutiny that comes with it. Are you wanting the right to have less power, or just keep the power but drop the scrutiny?
She lives alone.
She said life had not been pleasant.