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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The paper that should worry the Tories this morning is the Dai

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,279
    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    There are still those who are following the chain of logic of:

    1: There is a controversy involving Cummings
    2: Cummings was the architect of Leave
    3: Ergo it’s all a conspiracy by Remainers
    4: Hold the line.

    The possibility that there might actually be a non-Brexit related controversy involving Cummings hasn’t yet penetrated. That the Mail, plus many prominent Brexiteers have lambasted him over this might be a clue that, you know, this is about something he’s actually done - would require a big shift in outlook.

    I swear if Cummings was to shoot someone in the street shouting "I'm glad I Domminic Cummings kill him" there would be people on here posting "prosecuting Dominic Cummings would just be giving in to the left wing anti-Brexit hate mob"
    Why haven't they gone after Stephen Kinnock with the same zeal? Or Tahir Ali?
    Perhaps because:

    1) neither was at the centre of government
    2) neither was carrying the deadly viruses with them on their visit.
    Cummings was literally one of the key architects of the whole lockdown policy and its communication.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    edited May 2020
    Jonathan Powell on R4 - critical importance of getting all the facts quickly and not putting out Cabinet Ministers who don't know the answer (cf Williamson). Says Johnson can't fob this onto a Cabinet Secretary enquiry because the SPAD code says the hiring Minister is responsible - and he, Johnson, has acted as Judge & Jury and acquitted Cummings of any wrong doing.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,804

    Alistair said:

    There are still those who are following the chain of logic of:

    1: There is a controversy involving Cummings
    2: Cummings was the architect of Leave
    3: Ergo it’s all a conspiracy by Remainers
    4: Hold the line.

    The possibility that there might actually be a non-Brexit related controversy involving Cummings hasn’t yet penetrated. That the Mail, plus many prominent Brexiteers have lambasted him over this might be a clue that, you know, this is about something he’s actually done - would require a big shift in outlook.

    I swear if Cummings was to shoot someone in the street shouting "I'm glad I Domminic Cummings kill him" there would be people on here posting "prosecuting Dominic Cummings would just be giving in to the left wing anti-Brexit hate mob"
    Why haven't they gone after Stephen Kinnock with the same zeal? Or Tahir Ali?
    Did they have*/claim to have*/about to have* covid 19 when they broke lockdown? Were they the one person responsible for communicating the scientific evidence on lockdown to the PM?

    Breaking quarantine is far far riskier than breaking lockdown. And the person at the centre of the policy breaking it is worse than anyone else breaking it. And they havent said its nothing to do with the public what they do.

    * Choose whichever
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    TGOHF666 said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Can’t believe they made Scott set his alarm AGAIN on a Bank Holiday to post tweets in a doomed cause.

    Tough break Scott.

    What doomed cause is this? I'm genuinely baffled by that term!
    To get Dom - in revenge for Brexit.

    That’s all this is about - in the end.
    Bollocks.
    Any person with a half a brain cell knows what this is about, to deny it is childish.

    Tom Harwood just gave the true account of what is happening
    Do Hartley Brewer, Dale and Montgomery have half a brain cell?
    Personally I think the whole thing is a disaster that has been made much worse by the way the Tories have handled it. The press conference was abysmal, I agree with Big G that Boris seems to be a shadow of his former self and I would be surprised if he clings on much past the end of the year.

    But throughout this whole pandemic the media are after a gotcha moment, they are determined to bring Johnson down and have an EU friendly Tory leader that will extend the transition period. They've only got a few weeks to do it and this is the final push.

    From the little I know of Cummings he seems a confrontational type with little regard for anyone else, in normal circumstances I would agree that he should go but in this case I hope he stays, just to piss off the media
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    edited May 2020

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    It depends on social distancing.

    It requires 41 Tory MPs to socially distance themselves from the party.

    (Edit - no, I don’t think that will happen either, but 150 MPs trying to no-confidence Johnson doesn’t seem impossible.)
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,804
    ydoethur said:

    On a psychological level, there is a quite interesting angle to this.

    Boris Johnson's sun, around which all else revolves, is the ambition of Boris Johnson. He must be aware how much damage this is doing to him and his government. Yet he still values Dominic Cummings enough to keep him on despite the severe and ongoing harm.

    I think its a simple practical level. The PM knows he cannot control his cabinet without Cummings.
    Possibly not, given the way Cummings is taking the piss.
    And yet still the cabinet are controlled, gleefully popping up on TV when they know they have no answer and will get a kicking.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    edited May 2020

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    Nope, Labour have 4 years during which time they can drop it in every 3 months or so..

    One rule for you (plebs), but not for us.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    It isn't necessarily excellent advice at all. I mentioned earlier that Black Wednesday occurred exactly 23 weeks after John Major's surprise win in 1992. Yesterday's debacle occurred 23 weeks after Boris Johnson's win.

    The long, slow, death of the Conservative Party from 1992-7 was an extraordinary spectacle to behold. So it wasn't simply that the centrist, populist, Blair won in 1997: the Conservatives very much lost it. And how. They blew up.

    That's what may now have begun. It will not be pretty if you are bluest of the blue.
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    TGOHF666 said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Can’t believe they made Scott set his alarm AGAIN on a Bank Holiday to post tweets in a doomed cause.

    Tough break Scott.

    What doomed cause is this? I'm genuinely baffled by that term!
    To get Dom - in revenge for Brexit.

    That’s all this is about - in the end.
    Bollocks.
    Any person with a half a brain cell knows what this is about, to deny it is childish.

    Tom Harwood just gave the true account of what is happening
    Do Hartley Brewer, Dale and Montgomery have half a brain cell?
    Personally I think the whole thing is a disaster that has been made much worse by the way the Tories have handled it. The press conference was abysmal, I agree with Big G that Boris seems to be a shadow of his former self and I would be surprised if he clings on much past the end of the year.

    But throughout this whole pandemic the media are after a gotcha moment, they are determined to bring Johnson down and have an EU friendly Tory leader that will extend the transition period. They've only got a few weeks to do it and this is the final push.

    From the little I know of Cummings he seems a confrontational type with little regard for anyone else, in normal circumstances I would agree that he should go but in this case I hope he stays, just to piss off the media
    You must have been a huge supporter of Jeremy Corbyn.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,804

    I bet Keir Starmer can't quite believe his luck.

    The hit on the opinion poll Conservative ratings may be a long slide as happened following Black Wednesday: it took 6 months for the full polling scale to show. I expect Labour to take the lead in the next 3 months.

    What price this week?
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    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    edited May 2020

    TGOHF666 said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Can’t believe they made Scott set his alarm AGAIN on a Bank Holiday to post tweets in a doomed cause.

    Tough break Scott.

    What doomed cause is this? I'm genuinely baffled by that term!
    To get Dom - in revenge for Brexit.

    That’s all this is about - in the end.
    Bollocks.
    Any person with a half a brain cell knows what this is about, to deny it is childish.

    Tom Harwood just gave the true account of what is happening
    Do Hartley Brewer, Dale and Montgomery have half a brain cell?
    Personally I think the whole thing is a disaster that has been made much worse by the way the Tories have handled it. The press conference was abysmal, I agree with Big G that Boris seems to be a shadow of his former self and I would be surprised if he clings on much past the end of the year.

    But throughout this whole pandemic the media are after a gotcha moment, they are determined to bring Johnson down and have an EU friendly Tory leader that will extend the transition period. They've only got a few weeks to do it and this is the final push.

    From the little I know of Cummings he seems a confrontational type with little regard for anyone else, in normal circumstances I would agree that he should go but in this case I hope he stays, just to piss off the media
    Why would want to extend the transition period, let Boris own the whole train wreck.

    When this is finished I suspect the Tories will need a new name alongside the 15 years in the wilderness.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961



    But throughout this whole pandemic the media are after a gotcha moment, they are determined to bring Johnson down and have an EU friendly Tory leader that will extend the transition period. They've only got a few weeks to do it and this is the final push.

    From the little I know of Cummings he seems a confrontational type with little regard for anyone else, in normal circumstances I would agree that he should go but in this case I hope he stays, just to piss off the media

    Cummings is a softer brexiteer than Baker who was the first Tory to stick his head above the parapet on this. This could end us up with a harder or softer Brexit at this point, it's not clear. That's not the point right now.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    edited May 2020

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    It isn't necessarily excellent advice at all. I mentioned earlier that Black Wednesday occurred exactly 23 weeks after John Major's surprise win in 1992. Yesterday's debacle occurred 23 weeks after Boris Johnson's win.

    The long, slow, death of the Conservative Party from 1992-7 was an extraordinary spectacle to behold. So it wasn't simply that the centrist, populist, Blair won in 1997: the Conservatives very much lost it. And how. They blew up.

    That's what may now have begun. It will not be pretty if you are bluest of the blue.
    One difference of course is that Major had a very small majority at the start, that had actually gone entirely by the start of 1997. Had he had a solid majority of 80, then the feeling of division, confusion, paralysis and drift might have been less severe and the defeat less catastrophic as a result.

    Johnson’s majority is safe. His successor, if there is one, can quickly turn things around by dumping all the blame on Cummings. Labour remain a very weak force in Parliament, and their Shadow Cabinet is a poor substitute for Blair’s.

    So I don’t think we should get too carried away yet. But if they want to turn this around quickly, Cummings and probably Johnson both have to go, and go for good. They have demonstrated selfishness, incompetence, arrogance, and poor judgement, at a moment of acute national crisis. At least nobody doubted Neville Chamberlain meant well.
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    fox327fox327 Posts: 366
    I am not clear that Cummings has in fact broken any rules. If he has not broken any rules then by staying in his position he is setting a proper example to the public who should also be allowed to act within the rules. I suggest that an inquiry be held into whether Dominic Cummings has broken any laws or guidelines set down by the government. It appears to be that he has acted within the guidelines. People seem to be judging him by how they want people to behave rather than on what the actual advice and regulations state. This matters because the coronavirus situation is likely to go on for a very long time, so there need to be clear rules and people should be judged fairly on whether they have complied with the rules. Is Dominic Cummings being judged fairly and objectively? No.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,031

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    Black Wednesday was shortly after the 1992 election. Come 1997........
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    Not a "General" one, no.

    "Conservative Leader" might well be another matter.

    I know Johnson loves the limelight - well, he's certainly succeeded into turning this into all about him.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.

    Who Cummings or Boris?

    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,232
    Jonathan said:

    On a psychological level, there is a quite interesting angle to this.

    Boris Johnson's sun, around which all else revolves, is the ambition of Boris Johnson. He must be aware how much damage this is doing to him and his government. Yet he still values Dominic Cummings enough to keep him on despite the severe and ongoing harm.

    Boris has no ambition. He became PM, he won a majority bigger than Dave’s, he delivered Brexit. He is done. He now wants to sell his memoirs for £££s.
    Well there is him wanting to be remembered as a semi decent Churchill tribute act rather than a grotesque dummy with a cigar in one of those provincial waxwork museums. Perhaps he knows that game's now a bogey though.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    It isn't necessarily excellent advice at all. I mentioned earlier that Black Wednesday occurred exactly 23 weeks after John Major's surprise win in 1992. Yesterday's debacle occurred 23 weeks after Boris Johnson's win.

    The long, slow, death of the Conservative Party from 1992-7 was an extraordinary spectacle to behold. So it wasn't simply that the centrist, populist, Blair won in 1997: the Conservatives very much lost it. And how. They blew up.

    That's what may now have begun. It will not be pretty if you are bluest of the blue.
    The problem for the government was managing the pandemic was the easy bit, the bit that they could control. The hard part is the economic aftershock and they have no control over what happens there whatsoever.This becomes even more stark and uncontrollable when Boris imposes his Australia style (imaginary) trade deal.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    TGOHF666 said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Can’t believe they made Scott set his alarm AGAIN on a Bank Holiday to post tweets in a doomed cause.

    Tough break Scott.

    What doomed cause is this? I'm genuinely baffled by that term!
    To get Dom - in revenge for Brexit.

    That’s all this is about - in the end.
    Bollocks.
    Any person with a half a brain cell knows what this is about, to deny it is childish.

    Tom Harwood just gave the true account of what is happening
    Do Hartley Brewer, Dale and Montgomery have half a brain cell?
    Personally I think the whole thing is a disaster that has been made much worse by the way the Tories have handled it. The press conference was abysmal, I agree with Big G that Boris seems to be a shadow of his former self and I would be surprised if he clings on much past the end of the year.

    But throughout this whole pandemic the media are after a gotcha moment, they are determined to bring Johnson down and have an EU friendly Tory leader that will extend the transition period. They've only got a few weeks to do it and this is the final push.

    From the little I know of Cummings he seems a confrontational type with little regard for anyone else, in normal circumstances I would agree that he should go but in this case I hope he stays, just to piss off the media
    Complete rubbish this has nothing to do with the EU you are deluded.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,093
    The Tories next election slogan...

    https://twitter.com/Sathnam/status/1264593989598093315
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    We will see Government approval fall further when they have to take "tough" decisions about how to pay for all of this.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    There are still those who are following the chain of logic of:

    1: There is a controversy involving Cummings
    2: Cummings was the architect of Leave
    3: Ergo it’s all a conspiracy by Remainers
    4: Hold the line.

    The possibility that there might actually be a non-Brexit related controversy involving Cummings hasn’t yet penetrated. That the Mail, plus many prominent Brexiteers have lambasted him over this might be a clue that, you know, this is about something he’s actually done - would require a big shift in outlook.

    I swear if Cummings was to shoot someone in the street shouting "I'm glad I Domminic Cummings kill him" there would be people on here posting "prosecuting Dominic Cummings would just be giving in to the left wing anti-Brexit hate mob"
    Why haven't they gone after Stephen Kinnock with the same zeal? Or Tahir Ali?
    Perhaps because:

    1) neither was at the centre of government
    2) neither was carrying the deadly viruses with them on their visit.
    Cummings was literally one of the key architects of the whole lockdown policy and its communication.
    So you`d think he knew the rules.

    Will be interesting if we do get a blow-by-blow account of his actions, accompanied by evidence that he checked it was OK first. The fact that he was, it`s said, talked to by police but but not charged, and police guidance gives him cover.

    This story could take an unexpected turn yet, though I doubt it because surely Johnson would have made a better defence than yesterday`s abysmal effort.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    edited May 2020
    fox327 said:

    I am not clear that Cummings has in fact broken any rules. If he has not broken any rules then by staying in his position he is setting a proper example to the public who should also be allowed to act within the rules. I suggest that an inquiry be held into whether Dominic Cummings has broken any laws or guidelines set down by the government. It appears to be that he has acted within the guidelines. People seem to be judging him by how they want people to behave rather than on what the actual advice and regulations state. This matters because the coronavirus situation is likely to go on for a very long time, so there need to be clear rules and people should be judged fairly on whether they have complied with the rules. Is Dominic Cummings being judged fairly and objectively? No.

    On his own admission, he drove his wife from London to Durham when she was displaying the symptoms of Covid19.

    The government guidelines on that are so clear I would have thought even someone as thick as Dominic Cummings could have understood them. If you have symptoms, do not leave your house.

    He did. He admits he did. Therefore, he broke the guidelines. The question of whether he broke the law may be different and would require investigation, but there is no room for argument here. And therefore, he has to go. Any other solution wrecks lockdown and quarantine as concepts.

    If you cannot see that, it is because you do not wish to see it.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited May 2020
    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,279
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,279
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    There are still those who are following the chain of logic of:

    1: There is a controversy involving Cummings
    2: Cummings was the architect of Leave
    3: Ergo it’s all a conspiracy by Remainers
    4: Hold the line.

    The possibility that there might actually be a non-Brexit related controversy involving Cummings hasn’t yet penetrated. That the Mail, plus many prominent Brexiteers have lambasted him over this might be a clue that, you know, this is about something he’s actually done - would require a big shift in outlook.

    I swear if Cummings was to shoot someone in the street shouting "I'm glad I Domminic Cummings kill him" there would be people on here posting "prosecuting Dominic Cummings would just be giving in to the left wing anti-Brexit hate mob"
    Why haven't they gone after Stephen Kinnock with the same zeal? Or Tahir Ali?
    Perhaps because:

    1) neither was at the centre of government
    2) neither was carrying the deadly viruses with them on their visit.
    Cummings was literally one of the key architects of the whole lockdown policy and its communication.
    So you`d think he knew the rules.

    Will be interesting if we do get a blow-by-blow account of his actions, accompanied by evidence that he checked it was OK first. The fact that he was, it`s said, talked to by police but but not charged, and police guidance gives him cover.

    This story could take an unexpected turn yet, though I doubt it because surely Johnson would have made a better defence than yesterday`s abysmal effort.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1264820560267182080

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1264825382102065152
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    Scott_xP said:
    The temperature in the room dropped 15 degrees while reading that.
    That poor man.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    It isn't necessarily excellent advice at all. I mentioned earlier that Black Wednesday occurred exactly 23 weeks after John Major's surprise win in 1992. Yesterday's debacle occurred 23 weeks after Boris Johnson's win.

    The long, slow, death of the Conservative Party from 1992-7 was an extraordinary spectacle to behold. So it wasn't simply that the centrist, populist, Blair won in 1997: the Conservatives very much lost it. And how. They blew up.

    That's what may now have begun. It will not be pretty if you are bluest of the blue.
    The most obvious or the worst-case historical parallel is not necessarily the one that the present Parliament will follow - history generally doesn't repeat itself in such simple ways. We could equally well list the number of times a PM had a PR failure and then bounced back easily - good old Tony Blair managed to get bogged down in a bloody pointless war in the Middle East in 2003 with a million people marching in protest against him, and in 2005 was handily returned to power.

    Now, obviously Cummings going to Durham is much more important than an illegal regime-change war in the eyes of certain headbangers, and a few angry tweets are much bigger than the million-strong Iraq War March, but I'll repeat what I've been saying for days now: perspective, perspective, perspective.

    Here's another small difference: Labour was only 65 seats short of the Tories in 1992. Today it's 163. A giant can stumble, but it's still a giant...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,804
    Lets imagine this spinning out well for the govt.

    How many days/weeks before the story goes away?
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,804
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    He remained popular with the voters. Id be amazed if Johnson is not net negative now.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Above, the story will cease to have relevance when Boris Johnson ceases to be PM.

    Yesterday he had the opportunity to either toss Cummings overboard or hold an inquiry.

    Instead he chose the most stupid action. Fascinating decision from a man led by his own ambition. Maybe he genuinely thinks he cannot govern without Cummings.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,009

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    The new leader won't have to pander to a single minority to get laws through, what he will have to do is to buy groups off. Which for Teesside is going to mean we will need an awful lot of trinkets (Freeport, road improvements....)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    He remained popular with the voters. Id be amazed if Johnson is not net negative now.
    So was Major. Albeit less popular than Blair by the finish.

    Bluntly, I’ve never understood what people see in Johnson but then, he was only up against Corbyn.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,009

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    He remained popular with the voters. Id be amazed if Johnson is not net negative now.
    I'd be amazed in a weeks time if more than 10% regard him favourably...
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    Scott_xP said:
    The temperature in the room dropped 15 degrees while reading that.
    It’s a grim letter.

    Cummings really has no hiding place. There will be literally thousands of people who have been through similar experiences. Many in the North East will probably blame him for them.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927

    We will see Government approval fall further when they have to take "tough" decisions about how to pay for all of this.

    Getting everyone to lock down, whilst paying most of their salaries to do so, was always the easy bit.

    The next year or more is going to be horrendous for governments everywhere, with a major global recession and huge borrowing to pay for.

    Meanwhile, the U.K. press pack are going to spend the next week worrying about the minutiae of one guy’s calendar a couple of months ago, more interested in getting their scalp than actually holding the government to account.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    He remained popular with the voters. Id be amazed if Johnson is not net negative now.
    So was Major. Albeit less popular than Blair by the finish.

    Bluntly, I’ve never understood what people see in Johnson but then, he was only up against Corbyn.
    I voted for Corbyn - as he was the least worst option, perhaps now people can see why,
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009

    Lets imagine this spinning out well for the govt.

    How many days/weeks before the story goes away?

    Has does it spin out well

    https://twitter.com/acatherwoodnews/status/1264829885610147840

    is devastating - and there are 10,000s of similar stories every week of this lockdown.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,093

    Lets imagine this spinning out well for the govt.

    How many days/weeks before the story goes away?

    Depends on what "spinning out well" means.

    Best case scenario is probably BoZo resigns
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    Lets imagine this spinning out well for the govt.

    How many days/weeks before the story goes away?

    I`m struggling to imagine that.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2020

    Lets imagine this spinning out well for the govt.

    How many days/weeks before the story goes away?

    The white heat of the anger will have gone to red or below within a week, in a fortnight it'll no longer lead the media other than the Guardian / Mirror, in a month the average person will move on to new topics - do you remember the news a month ago today (be honest)? - in 6 months the economic recovery from coronavirus will crowd out all other news as we struggle to recover from depression, in 4 years the general election will be fought based on what's actually happening then.

    Two years from now Scott and ICHB will still be re-tweeting 24/7 about it though :wink:
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,961
    Rees Mogg noted that although May won the first time round a majority of backbenchers were probably against her. What's the ratio of support to oppose amongst backbenchers here.
    Lots of MPs are keeping quiet, but those that are coming out the woodwork are against. Has any non payroll MP actually defended the Gov't yet ?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    Sandpit said:

    We will see Government approval fall further when they have to take "tough" decisions about how to pay for all of this.

    Getting everyone to lock down, whilst paying most of their salaries to do so, was always the easy bit.

    The next year or more is going to be horrendous for governments everywhere, with a major global recession and huge borrowing to pay for.

    Meanwhile, the U.K. press pack are going to spend the next week worrying about the minutiae of one guy’s calendar a couple of months ago, more interested in getting their scalp than actually holding the government to account.
    They won't there will be more meatier stories to focus on.

    But on quiet news days it's the perfect story to bring up as I suspect a new spin will sell a lot of papers for the next couple of years.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009

    The fury out there is remarkable. This is a terrible moment for Johnson.

    I bet Max Hastings is smiling to himself this morning and thinking, 'I told you.'

    I doubt even Max Hastings could have imagined a screw up in this way...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    The difference with this scandal, is there’s nothing that the Tory MPs are actually going to rebel on, when it comes to actual votes - it’s not a policy disagreement.

    Short of resigning the whip (and with an awful lot of recent evidence of how that turns out for those involved), what are Tory MPs upset that the PM didn’t fire his advisor actually going to do about it?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    Do you think four more years of this is going to improve the polls for the tories, or that Johnson is going to pivot so hard and fast to honesty and competence that he will win back the Red Wall as well as the shire, braindead, blue rosette on a donkey tories whose votes you are also haemorrhaging?

    Johnson's genius is this:Some areas of politics are overtly and obviously polarising - reducing the top rate of tax vs increasing the minimum wage and housing benefit, say. Other issues manage to end up party political when it is not immediately obvious they should be - belief in global warming, support for HS2, the NHS and so on. Johnson has identified against the odds the one topic on which everybody is in the same boat, so that he is not pissing off a substantial faction, he is pissing off everybody who is mortal or who is related to anybody who is mortal.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,019
    Johnson is (even more) fucked if the "Wilson Letter" goes viral.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Lets imagine this spinning out well for the govt.

    How many days/weeks before the story goes away?

    The white heat of the anger will have gone to red or below within a week, in a fortnight it'll no longer lead the media other than the Guardian / Mirror, in a month the average person will move on to new topics - do you remember the news a month ago today (be honest)? - in 6 months the economic recovery from coronavirus will crowd out all other news as we struggle to recover from depression, in 4 years the general election will be fought based on what's actually happening then.

    Two years from now Scott and ICHB will still be re-tweeting 24/7 about it though :wink:
    I remember the poll tax riots. Next?
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    nichomar said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Can’t believe they made Scott set his alarm AGAIN on a Bank Holiday to post tweets in a doomed cause.

    Tough break Scott.

    What doomed cause is this? I'm genuinely baffled by that term!
    To get Dom - in revenge for Brexit.

    That’s all this is about - in the end.
    Bollocks.
    Any person with a half a brain cell knows what this is about, to deny it is childish.

    Tom Harwood just gave the true account of what is happening
    Do Hartley Brewer, Dale and Montgomery have half a brain cell?
    Personally I think the whole thing is a disaster that has been made much worse by the way the Tories have handled it. The press conference was abysmal, I agree with Big G that Boris seems to be a shadow of his former self and I would be surprised if he clings on much past the end of the year.

    But throughout this whole pandemic the media are after a gotcha moment, they are determined to bring Johnson down and have an EU friendly Tory leader that will extend the transition period. They've only got a few weeks to do it and this is the final push.

    From the little I know of Cummings he seems a confrontational type with little regard for anyone else, in normal circumstances I would agree that he should go but in this case I hope he stays, just to piss off the media
    Complete rubbish this has nothing to do with the EU you are deluded.
    I would agree this has nothing to do with the EU, but it has everything to do with a Remain frenzied media that are desperate to keep us in it.

    Let's see how this pans out before you decide if I am deluded
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Wonder if Cummings has done a deal with Boris where he will go after the deadline to extend the Brexit transition period has passed at the end of June
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009

    Lets imagine this spinning out well for the govt.

    How many days/weeks before the story goes away?

    The white heat of the anger will have gone to red or below within a week, in a fortnight it'll no longer lead the media other than the Guardian / Mirror, in a month the average person will move on to new topics - do you remember the news a month ago today (be honest)? - in 6 months the economic recovery from coronavirus will crowd out all other news as we struggle to recover from depression, in 4 years the general election will be fought based on what's actually happening then.

    Two years from now Scott and ICHB will still be re-tweeting 24/7 about it though :wink:
    Nope

    https://twitter.com/acatherwoodnews/status/1264829885610147840

    Sorry, this is how people feel and this is going to be permanent. Boris is no longer a joke, he is at best the clown you laugh at, in reality he's the beast who made the worst period of you live 1000 times worse.

    The fact you can't see this shows how little compassion you actually have as a person.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2020
    That letter, gut wrenching as it is, is as much a protest against lockdown as it is against Cummings.

    I was listening to a leading dentist on the radio talking about the awful privations that some unfortunates have gone through and are still going through because the industry was summarily shut down in panic and has not re-opened.

    Lockdown has unleashed a terrible barbarism that is shattering our country socially and economically.

    I;ve said it consistently and as the evidence mounts I believe it more than ever.

    Long lockdown is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever. By a street.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    He remained popular with the voters. Id be amazed if Johnson is not net negative now.
    So was Major. Albeit less popular than Blair by the finish.

    Bluntly, I’ve never understood what people see in Johnson but then, he was only up against Corbyn.
    I voted for Corbyn - as he was the least worst option, perhaps now people can see why,
    I’m afraid I still have to disagree. However awful Johnson and Cummings are, Corbyn and Milne would have been a thousand times worse.

    Difficult to imagine right now, but given both of them were even stupider than J and C, and even more racist, lazy, authoritarian and arrogant, I’m confident they would have found even more spectacular ways to screw things up. Probably, for a start, they would have taken advantage of the crisis to nationalise most of the major businesses and the rented housing sector, sending the economy into a prolonged death spiral from which no exit could be found.

    I voted for none of the three candidates on offer here. Instead, I tore up my ballot paper. I still think I made the right decision.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited May 2020

    Excellent advice indeed for those people who seem to think there's an election this year. Or next year. Or the year after that. Or the year after that.

    'Cos there isn't :smile:
    Assuming we exit lockdown, there are lots of elections in the years ahead. Each one a stepping stone.
  • Options

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    There are still those who are following the chain of logic of:

    1: There is a controversy involving Cummings
    2: Cummings was the architect of Leave
    3: Ergo it’s all a conspiracy by Remainers
    4: Hold the line.

    The possibility that there might actually be a non-Brexit related controversy involving Cummings hasn’t yet penetrated. That the Mail, plus many prominent Brexiteers have lambasted him over this might be a clue that, you know, this is about something he’s actually done - would require a big shift in outlook.

    I swear if Cummings was to shoot someone in the street shouting "I'm glad I Domminic Cummings kill him" there would be people on here posting "prosecuting Dominic Cummings would just be giving in to the left wing anti-Brexit hate mob"
    Why haven't they gone after Stephen Kinnock with the same zeal? Or Tahir Ali?
    Perhaps because:

    1) neither was at the centre of government
    2) neither was carrying the deadly viruses with them on their visit.
    Cummings was literally one of the key architects of the whole lockdown policy and its communication.
    So you`d think he knew the rules.

    Will be interesting if we do get a blow-by-blow account of his actions, accompanied by evidence that he checked it was OK first. The fact that he was, it`s said, talked to by police but but not charged, and police guidance gives him cover.

    This story could take an unexpected turn yet, though I doubt it because surely Johnson would have made a better defence than yesterday`s abysmal effort.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1264820560267182080

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1264825382102065152
    Including Stephen Kinnock and Tahir Ali
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    fox327 said:

    I am not clear that Cummings has in fact broken any rules. If he has not broken any rules then by staying in his position he is setting a proper example to the public who should also be allowed to act within the rules. I suggest that an inquiry be held into whether Dominic Cummings has broken any laws or guidelines set down by the government. It appears to be that he has acted within the guidelines. People seem to be judging him by how they want people to behave rather than on what the actual advice and regulations state. This matters because the coronavirus situation is likely to go on for a very long time, so there need to be clear rules and people should be judged fairly on whether they have complied with the rules. Is Dominic Cummings being judged fairly and objectively? No.

    Next time you're given a list of bullet points by CCHQ to repost, try separating each line.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,093
    Dura_Ace said:

    Johnson is (even more) fucked if the "Wilson Letter" goes viral.

    It's on my timeline many times
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,804
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    The difference with this scandal, is there’s nothing that the Tory MPs are actually going to rebel on, when it comes to actual votes - it’s not a policy disagreement.

    Short of resigning the whip (and with an awful lot of recent evidence of how that turns out for those involved), what are Tory MPs upset that the PM didn’t fire his advisor actually going to do about it?
    So is the best case for the govt:

    Story is red hot for a week or two
    Once lockdown eases, discussions move onto schools (where this story will undoubtedly reappear) and the economy
    Tory MPs lose faith in the leader but cant do anything about it
    Country loses faith in the govt but cant do anything about it
    More covid is spread as people dont follow rules but their intuitions and more people die
    But Johnson gets to stay PM
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009

    That letter, gut wrenching as it is, is as much a protest against lockdown as it is against Cummings.

    I was listening to a leading dentist on the radio talking about the awful privations that some unfortunates have gone through and are still going through because the industry was summarily shut down in panic and has not re-opened.

    Lockdown has unleashed a terrible barbarism is shattering our country socially and economically.

    I;ve said it consistently and as the evidence mounts I believe it more than ever.

    Long lockdown is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever. By a street.

    It is but that is also Boris's fault - so it will be combined together and the entirety of the pain attached to the current Government.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. DHSS, I don't know about the Ali situation, but Kinnock was delivering food/medicine to his elderly parents which I believe was specifically permitted under the guidance/law.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,325

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    There are still those who are following the chain of logic of:

    1: There is a controversy involving Cummings
    2: Cummings was the architect of Leave
    3: Ergo it’s all a conspiracy by Remainers
    4: Hold the line.

    The possibility that there might actually be a non-Brexit related controversy involving Cummings hasn’t yet penetrated. That the Mail, plus many prominent Brexiteers have lambasted him over this might be a clue that, you know, this is about something he’s actually done - would require a big shift in outlook.

    I swear if Cummings was to shoot someone in the street shouting "I'm glad I Domminic Cummings kill him" there would be people on here posting "prosecuting Dominic Cummings would just be giving in to the left wing anti-Brexit hate mob"
    Why haven't they gone after Stephen Kinnock with the same zeal? Or Tahir Ali?
    Perhaps because:

    1) neither was at the centre of government
    2) neither was carrying the deadly viruses with them on their visit.
    Cummings was literally one of the key architects of the whole lockdown policy and its communication.
    So you`d think he knew the rules.

    Will be interesting if we do get a blow-by-blow account of his actions, accompanied by evidence that he checked it was OK first. The fact that he was, it`s said, talked to by police but but not charged, and police guidance gives him cover.

    This story could take an unexpected turn yet, though I doubt it because surely Johnson would have made a better defence than yesterday`s abysmal effort.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1264820560267182080

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1264825382102065152
    Including Stephen Kinnock and Tahir Ali
    Who are not running the country.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272

    That letter, gut wrenching as it is, is as much a protest against lockdown as it is against Cummings.

    I was listening to a leading dentist on the radio talking about the awful privations that some unfortunates have gone through and are still going through because the industry was summarily shut down in panic and has not re-opened.

    Lockdown has unleashed a terrible barbarism is shattering our country socially and economically.

    I;ve said it consistently and as the evidence mounts I believe it more than ever.

    Long lockdown is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever. By a street.

    Long lockdown where the high and the mighty could come and go as they please was the worst policy mistake by any government.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I expect the Cummings story will eventually be last weeks fish and chip paper but the resentment amongst much of the public is going to fester .

    People often read too much into how events impact future elections . The next GE is years away , a lot can happen until then but this episode will undermine the PMs authority.

    What Johnson seems to be missing is in normal should a person be fired or resigned the public aren’t so invested in that , politics is one thing but the public have personal experience of the lockdown and what they see as their own sacrifices.

  • Options

    Wonder if Cummings has done a deal with Boris where he will go after the deadline to extend the Brexit transition period has passed at the end of June

    That's what I am thinking too, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Boris went very early next year once we are out
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    The difference with this scandal, is there’s nothing that the Tory MPs are actually going to rebel on, when it comes to actual votes - it’s not a policy disagreement.

    Short of resigning the whip (and with an awful lot of recent evidence of how that turns out for those involved), what are Tory MPs upset that the PM didn’t fire his advisor actually going to do about it?
    They could refuse to vote for any policy proposed by Cummings, on the grounds that he has demonstrated a clear lack of judgement and does not understand law or due process.

    They could also refuse to have their staff vetted by him.

    Finally, they could simply refuse to talk to him at all. If Cabinet Ministers do that, he can’t function.

    The problem for Cummings is that they all hate and despise him anyway, because he’s such an unpleasant human being. He has pretty well no support outside Johnson.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,804
    Dura_Ace said:

    Johnson is (even more) fucked if the "Wilson Letter" goes viral.

    Would make a very powerful front page of a daily paper tomorrow. Just that, nothing else.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    The difference with this scandal, is there’s nothing that the Tory MPs are actually going to rebel on, when it comes to actual votes - it’s not a policy disagreement.

    Short of resigning the whip (and with an awful lot of recent evidence of how that turns out for those involved), what are Tory MPs upset that the PM didn’t fire his advisor actually going to do about it?
    Rebel on the next virus bill. Add amendments which allow people to go to Durham etc...

    Or failing that, withdraw support from extending it and threaten to defeat the government on continued special measures unless changes are made to the leadership team. There's plenty of things MPs can do in the house.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    He remained popular with the voters. Id be amazed if Johnson is not net negative now.
    So was Major. Albeit less popular than Blair by the finish.

    Bluntly, I’ve never understood what people see in Johnson but then, he was only up against Corbyn.
    I voted for Corbyn - as he was the least worst option, perhaps now people can see why,
    I’m afraid I still have to disagree. However awful Johnson and Cummings are, Corbyn and Milne would have been a thousand times worse.

    Difficult to imagine right now, but given both of them were even stupider than J and C, and even more racist, lazy, authoritarian and arrogant, I’m confident they would have found even more spectacular ways to screw things up. Probably, for a start, they would have taken advantage of the crisis to nationalise most of the major businesses and the rented housing sector, sending the economy into a prolonged death spiral from which no exit could be found.

    I voted for none of the three candidates on offer here. Instead, I tore up my ballot paper. I still think I made the right decision.
    In my case there was the optional addition that I might reduce Boris's majority by one (didn't work out that way though).
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    Scott_xP said:
    The temperature in the room dropped 15 degrees while reading that.

    There is no escaping the fact that Johnson really isn't up to the job. If he reads that letter and doesn't have to go and have a long hard look at himself, nothing else will make him.
    Feck knows how the country is going to get over this with him in charge.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,668
    I have splattered around a few likes this morning and interesting to note that the distribution is across the political spectrum.

    I have found Max's posts all morning a very useful insight and I thought AlistairM hit the nail on the head much earlier about how this could have been handled by Boris such that it would have just been like one of the many scandals that just has a short life and more importantly the damage to the Govts message on lockdown is only slightly damaged. Even Cummings could have survived.

    What is worse is that Boris's handling of the communications was excellent to start with. The Daily briefing format was perfect and he has the right personality to lead that format (I said so here at the time).

    This has been thrown away, initially by the manipulating of the testing numbers and now this.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,009

    Wonder if Cummings has done a deal with Boris where he will go after the deadline to extend the Brexit transition period has passed at the end of June

    That's what I am thinking too, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Boris went very early next year once we are out
    Both too late - and if that had been the case demoting Cummings would have fixed it.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,279

    That letter, gut wrenching as it is, is as much a protest against lockdown as it is against Cummings.

    I was listening to a leading dentist on the radio talking about the awful privations that some unfortunates have gone through and are still going through because the industry was summarily shut down in panic and has not re-opened.

    Lockdown has unleashed a terrible barbarism is shattering our country socially and economically.

    I;ve said it consistently and as the evidence mounts I believe it more than ever.

    Long lockdown is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever. By a street.

    Long lockdown where the high and the mighty could come and go as they please was the worst policy mistake by any government.
    How many government advisors and Cabinet ministers have seen a dentist in last eight weeks?

    We should be told.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340



    Scott_xP said:
    The temperature in the room dropped 15 degrees while reading that.

    There is no escaping the fact that Johnson really isn't up to the job. If he reads that letter and doesn't have to go and have a long hard look at himself, nothing else will make him.
    Feck knows how the country is going to get over this with him in charge.
    A journalist could do worse than read that out at this afternoon's press conference and ask for a comment from the minister.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,325

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Alistair said:

    Having a bit of a wobble, he could be gone this week.


    Getting rid of Cummings won't be enough anymore..
    No, the damage has been done. Just like Black Wednesday. The fact that following that 24 hour fiasco we actually paved the way for our outstanding economic success was totally lost by the spectacle of Lamont and Major fumbling and obfuscating on the steps of the Treasury and Downing St. It was astonishing.

    So is this.

    Good point by Ydoethur below about the difference in majorities although some say it's better to have a small majority than a larger one. I anticipate a cascade of rebellions ahead on votes in the HoC.
    Blair suffered far more, far larger rebellions than Major. As early as 1997, 60 backbenchers rebelled over welfare changes. More Labour backbenchers rebelled over top up fees than over Iraq.

    He survived ten years and three election victories.
    The difference with this scandal, is there’s nothing that the Tory MPs are actually going to rebel on, when it comes to actual votes - it’s not a policy disagreement.

    Short of resigning the whip (and with an awful lot of recent evidence of how that turns out for those involved), what are Tory MPs upset that the PM didn’t fire his advisor actually going to do about it?
    So is the best case for the govt:

    Story is red hot for a week or two
    Once lockdown eases, discussions move onto schools (where this story will undoubtedly reappear) and the economy
    Tory MPs lose faith in the leader but cant do anything about it
    Country loses faith in the govt but cant do anything about it
    More covid is spread as people dont follow rules but their intuitions and more people die
    But Johnson gets to stay PM
    You get the impression that for some people everything's ok as long as that last condition applies. Boris would presumably be one of them.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2020
    You know what will piss off the frothers even more? The Tories should circulate a list of Labour MPs and officials who've broken the lockdown - and you can bet there will be some - and ask Starmer if he's going to immediately expel them from the party, since the silly hypocrite has already said he would have fired Cummings.

    Why is Stephen Kinnock still a Labour MP, Mr. Starmer?
    Why is Tahir Ali still a Labour MP, Mr. Starmer?

    One rule for Labour, and one for everyone else? :wink:
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    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    edited May 2020

    Dura_Ace said:

    Johnson is (even more) fucked if the "Wilson Letter" goes viral.

    Would make a very powerful front page of a daily paper tomorrow. Just that, nothing else.
    Tomorrows front page of the Daily Mail - good luck surviving that.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321



    Scott_xP said:
    The temperature in the room dropped 15 degrees while reading that.

    There is no escaping the fact that Johnson really isn't up to the job. If he reads that letter and doesn't have to go and have a long hard look at himself, nothing else will make him.
    Feck knows how the country is going to get over this with him in charge.
    A journalist could do worse than read that out at this afternoon's press conference and ask for a comment from the minister.
    Is there one, on the Bank Holiday?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Sandpit, good point on voting, but PMs who piss off their backbenches can lose unrelated votes due to the bad feeling meaning there's no desire to give a leader a fair shot.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    We will see Government approval fall further when they have to take "tough" decisions about how to pay for all of this.

    Getting everyone to lock down, whilst paying most of their salaries to do so, was always the easy bit.

    The next year or more is going to be horrendous for governments everywhere, with a major global recession and huge borrowing to pay for.

    Meanwhile, the U.K. press pack are going to spend the next week worrying about the minutiae of one guy’s calendar a couple of months ago, more interested in getting their scalp than actually holding the government to account.
    They won't there will be more meatier stories to focus on.

    But on quiet news days it's the perfect story to bring up as I suspect a new spin will sell a lot of papers for the next couple of years.
    Oh indeed, but meanwhile we still have an app that doesn’t work and can’t be made to work - which is a much more serious actual issue.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    eek said:

    That letter, gut wrenching as it is, is as much a protest against lockdown as it is against Cummings.

    I was listening to a leading dentist on the radio talking about the awful privations that some unfortunates have gone through and are still going through because the industry was summarily shut down in panic and has not re-opened.

    Lockdown has unleashed a terrible barbarism is shattering our country socially and economically.

    I;ve said it consistently and as the evidence mounts I believe it more than ever.

    Long lockdown is the worst policy mistake by any British government, ever. By a street.

    It is but that is also Boris's fault - so it will be combined together and the entirety of the pain attached to the current Government.
    Cummings is in fact a proxy. What he has done isn;t really that bad, but he is being used as a reason to unleash a flood of stories of the terrible, terrible experiences that lockdown has caused for British people and is still causing.

    The Mail decided he was guilty in the first sentence of its leader, so that it could wail against a policy the Mail itself supported.
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    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    You know what will piss off the frothers even more? The Tories should circulate a list of Labour MPs and officials who've broken the lockdown - and you can bet there will be some - and ask Starmer if he's going to immediately expel them from the party, since the silly hypocrite has already said he would have fired Cummings.

    Why is Stephen Kinnock still a Labour MP, Mr. Starmer?

    One rule for Labour, and one for everyone else? :wink:

    obvious point is obvious.
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    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Alistair said:

    There are still those who are following the chain of logic of:

    1: There is a controversy involving Cummings
    2: Cummings was the architect of Leave
    3: Ergo it’s all a conspiracy by Remainers
    4: Hold the line.

    The possibility that there might actually be a non-Brexit related controversy involving Cummings hasn’t yet penetrated. That the Mail, plus many prominent Brexiteers have lambasted him over this might be a clue that, you know, this is about something he’s actually done - would require a big shift in outlook.

    I swear if Cummings was to shoot someone in the street shouting "I'm glad I Domminic Cummings kill him" there would be people on here posting "prosecuting Dominic Cummings would just be giving in to the left wing anti-Brexit hate mob"
    Why haven't they gone after Stephen Kinnock with the same zeal? Or Tahir Ali?
    Perhaps because:

    1) neither was at the centre of government
    2) neither was carrying the deadly viruses with them on their visit.
    Cummings was literally one of the key architects of the whole lockdown policy and its communication.
    So you`d think he knew the rules.

    Will be interesting if we do get a blow-by-blow account of his actions, accompanied by evidence that he checked it was OK first. The fact that he was, it`s said, talked to by police but but not charged, and police guidance gives him cover.

    This story could take an unexpected turn yet, though I doubt it because surely Johnson would have made a better defence than yesterday`s abysmal effort.
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1264820560267182080

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1264825382102065152
    Including Stephen Kinnock and Tahir Ali
    Who are not running the country.
    Kinnock was promoted to the Shadow front bench by Starmer two weeks after his little episode. Starmer said yesterday if he was PM he would sack Cummings, yet not only did he not sack Kinnock he promoted him.

    Double standards much?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321

    You know what will piss off the frothers even more? The Tories should circulate a list of Labour MPs and officials who've broken the lockdown - and you can bet there will be some - and ask Starmer if he's going to immediately expel them from the party, since the silly hypocrite has already said he would have fired Cummings.

    Why is Stephen Kinnock still a Labour MP, Mr. Starmer?

    One rule for Labour, and one for everyone else? :wink:

    He didn’t break quarantine. Nor did he stay away from his house overnight. Nor did he even enter another dwelling.

    Equating Kinnock’s minor infringement of the strict letter of the law with this coach and horses action by Cummings is frankly bonkers. Even Jenrick was far less culpable.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,279
    In guess anyone missed this one.

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1264595014295990278

    Cummings as fuckweasel. Brilliant.
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    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2020
    ydoethur said:

    You know what will piss off the frothers even more? The Tories should circulate a list of Labour MPs and officials who've broken the lockdown - and you can bet there will be some - and ask Starmer if he's going to immediately expel them from the party, since the silly hypocrite has already said he would have fired Cummings.

    Why is Stephen Kinnock still a Labour MP, Mr. Starmer?

    One rule for Labour, and one for everyone else? :wink:

    He didn’t break quarantine. Nor did he stay away from his house overnight. Nor did he even enter another dwelling.

    Equating Kinnock’s minor infringement of the strict letter of the law with this coach and horses action by Cummings is frankly bonkers. Even Jenrick was far less culpable.
    Funny how all the excuses come out when it's not Cummings, isn't it? Where's the absolutist moralizing now?

    How about Tahir Ali?

    Oh, he's a Labour MP and not Cummings, so it's all right, of course.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,070
    I’m unusual in that I can’t get exercised by the Cummings stuff. Tens of thousands of people have broken the lockdown rules, which are completely unsustainable. Why should he be any different?

    What I am concerned about is the utter chaos at the heart of government. This is the administration that is supposed to be leading us out of this thing. They look like complete amateurs - absolute clowns.

    It doesn’t bode well. We have a clueless PM leading a cabinet of idiots in a time of national crisis.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272

    nichomar said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    murali_s said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Can’t believe they made Scott set his alarm AGAIN on a Bank Holiday to post tweets in a doomed cause.

    Tough break Scott.

    What doomed cause is this? I'm genuinely baffled by that term!
    To get Dom - in revenge for Brexit.

    That’s all this is about - in the end.
    Bollocks.
    Any person with a half a brain cell knows what this is about, to deny it is childish.

    Tom Harwood just gave the true account of what is happening
    Do Hartley Brewer, Dale and Montgomery have half a brain cell?
    Personally I think the whole thing is a disaster that has been made much worse by the way the Tories have handled it. The press conference was abysmal, I agree with Big G that Boris seems to be a shadow of his former self and I would be surprised if he clings on much past the end of the year.

    But throughout this whole pandemic the media are after a gotcha moment, they are determined to bring Johnson down and have an EU friendly Tory leader that will extend the transition period. They've only got a few weeks to do it and this is the final push.

    From the little I know of Cummings he seems a confrontational type with little regard for anyone else, in normal circumstances I would agree that he should go but in this case I hope he stays, just to piss off the media
    Complete rubbish this has nothing to do with the EU you are deluded.
    I would agree this has nothing to do with the EU, but it has everything to do with a Remain frenzied media that are desperate to keep us in it.

    Let's see how this pans out before you decide if I am deluded
    Still fighting the war you won? This is about the handling of the pandemic, it has nothing to do with former Remainers or Leavers.

    For what it is worth, I am a former Remainer who thought Cummings should stay as a snub to the baying press pack. I couldn't in my wildest nightmares have imagined Boris could make such a horlicks of keeping Cummings on board
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