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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The paper that should worry the Tories this morning is the Dai
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The paper that should worry the Tories this morning is the Daily Mail
Inevitably the papers big story this lockdown bank holiday Monday is the decision by Johnson to retain Cummings in spite what appears to be a clear breach of the lockdown rules.
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That Daily Mail front page Comment is eviscerating. And I believe it speaks for millions of people up and down the country (which is where Cummings has been) who have pulled together and sacrificed everything they can in a spirit of countrywide unity in order to beat back this virus.
If you'll pardon the language it's as if the PM and Cummings have pissed all over them. The fury and hurt out there is tangible. Not just adults either: children bewildered and wondering what on earth their united fight was all about.
I have never seen anything quite like it this side of the Atlantic. It will be Boris Johnson's Black Wednesday, occurring 23 weeks after his General Election victory, just as the September Black Wednesday 1992 was 23 weeks after Major's win.
The results will be the same. Johnson's approval ratings will plummet, the Conservatives will slide in the polls and Johnson will never recover from this.
Moments such as these have staying power because they betray an uncomfortable truth. Cummings’s lockdown breach — not once, it seems, but twice — will hang around for a long time because it captures the arrogance that many accuse him of, and the entitlement that many suspect of Conservatives in general. This story is not going away.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/dominic-cummings-makes-a-mockery-of-his-own-coronavirus-policy-78w09n5h2
https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/1264794038760353793
And Boris is wrong.
One's assertion, before the 5pm press conference yesterday, that was the PM was a vacillating coward of poor judgement, appears vindicated.
About ten times worse than the behaviour other people such as Calderwood and Ferguson have had to resign for, but Cummings really is above the rules.
Edit: in that vein.
https://twitter.com/gdog2010_john/status/1264680166153994240?s=20
THE UNANSWERED QUESTIONS
1. How many ministers, including the PM, knew Mr Cummings had travelled to Durham and was self-isolating there?
2. Did Mr Cummings ask for advice or permission from No 10 before he travelled?
3. Why did Mr Cummings insist neither he nor his family had been spoken to by Durham Police, when his father had contacted the force himself?
4. Can Mr Cummings explain where he was on April 12, when he was allegedly spotted at Barnard Castle?
5. Can Mr Cummings provide details of his whereabouts on April 19, when he was allegedly seen in Houghall Woods?
6. What reason can Mr Cummings provide for allegedly travelling to Durham for a second time after his return to London, given he and his wife had recovered from their symptoms?
7. Why didn’t another family member near Mr Cummings’s London home care for their child when his wife displayed virus symptoms?
8. How many times did Mr Cummings travel between London and the North East during lockdown?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8353009/Boris-Johnson-faces-biggest-rebellion-yet.html
Every time the government asks the public to make sacrifices to deal with Covid-19, it is going to be asked what loopholes exist for the elite. And the public are going to make their decisions based on self-interest, not collective interest.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1264775618941669376
https://twitter.com/SpiroAgnewGhost/status/1264603530158956546
https://twitter.com/BegumNadiya/status/1264601352463880194?s=20
If we get a second wave, as is entirely possible, the Government will ask for some form of lockdown or lesser restrictions. Getting the public to go along with that when they've established that the rules aren't enforced equally will be very difficult.
The result of that will be increased deaths, as well as economic damage.
And it's just plain stupid. If the PM wanted to stand behind Cummings then the inquiry was the way to go (I thought that'd be what he said). Pretending this is all closed is nonsense. If it were just leftwing papers that might be a line that would work. But rightwing media and, more importantly, numbers of Conservative MPs are calling for Grima Wormtongue's removal.
An 80 seat majority means the Conservative Government is safe. It does not mean the Conservative Prime Minister is safe.
There’s also a difference between people rightly arguing that Govt members not following their own guidance makes it harder to encourage people following it nationally, and individuals saying “well if x/y/z won’t act to save lives, then neither (personally) will I”.
The defence...
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1264802155237715968
Do we know the wife was ill? How ill? She wrote a lengthy piece on Dom's illness. Can she provide a list of dates and places? How about his parents - can they corroborate the story?
I'm begining to wonder whether the whole thing is just one huge cock and bull story to cover a more serious and blatant disregard of Government instructions.
Let's hope our Press gets properly into this.
And Kudos to the Daily Mail (words I never thought I would write) for being so forthright.
All that Boris really amounts to is a parasitical ball of compromised ambition fuelled by a viral overload of neediness and cowardice. There is no substance or dignity left within the prime minister. His only instinct is his own survival.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/24/no-dignity-no-future-boris-forsakes-leadership-to-protect-cummings
https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1264788478933360640?s=20
If my wife were down with the Virus, the last thing I would be thinking of doing would be to drive her 250 miles to be looked after by somebody else.
What secret is so great they are willing to sacrifice public health to prevent speaking it?
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1264805491311628288
But I would actually have far more sympathy for him doing that than travelling 350 miles when ill to his elderly parents (or next door or whatever to them). The web of lies would still be a resigning matter but it would be nowhere as selfish or dangerous.
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/1264803399360536578?s=20
Or a parent issue.
And the pent up frustrations of the hateful lefty lynch mobs locked indoors for months throwing darts at pictures of “Tories”.
Ugly ugly scenes.
https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1264807637679591424?s=21
Johnson has turned it into a Public Health issue.
And the inevitable #Domnishambles
Tough break Scott.
Apart from anything else, this will go down as a textbook example of how not to manage a scandal.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1264809884912160768
"If he was telling the truth, he did nothing wrong. And we have not and will not make any attempt to discern if he is in fact telling the truth"
British public, FUCK YOU !!
That’s all this is about - in the end.
My commiserations if that's your experience.
When a leader gets knifed (not that I'm saying this will happen), it's often an ambitious loyalist who takes his place.
For that matter, not the mosques closed on Eid al Fitr too, a time when getting together with family and community particularly missed.
Now Dan Hodges should ask himself why they are shouting at Dominic Cummings in the street. The answer is: they’re bloody furious.
No ban on air travel when there should have been - stupid (though hindsight alert). Quarantine now on arrivals when arrivals will be from countries safer than ours - stupid.
Populism is looking to be a problem isn`t it.
It would be like getting rid of Thatcher in the midst of poll tax backlash, and saying "introducing your new PM, Mr Nicholas Ridley!"
Perhaps the problem was that he can’t do contrition.
Raab even.
So it would be a Raab/Williamson/Patel
Thinking about that, just perhaps..... actually on balance..... Cummings was acting completely 100% appropriately........
Which ends up making them angrier - as if they’re having to clean up after the mess from the spoilt brats.
Hunt and Raab has made plenty of errors of judgement of their own.
Gove is the only vaguely plausible one, but has a list of enemies even longer than Boris.
Also I cant remember when my preferred candidate last won a party leadership election in any party - its at least a decade! There must have been someone in the 00s but I cant think of one! So it aint gonna be Sunak.
All of them backed Boris as a straight shooter who wasn't like other politicians. Tbh, even if Boris sacks Dom and has a damascene conversion it has mortally wounded his premiership.
Among reliably Tory friends I have the situation is worse.
1: There is a controversy involving Cummings
2: Cummings was the architect of Leave
3: Ergo it’s all a conspiracy by Remainers
4: Hold the line.
The possibility that there might actually be a non-Brexit related controversy involving Cummings hasn’t yet penetrated. That the Mail, plus many prominent Brexiteers have lambasted him over this might be a clue that, you know, this is about something he’s actually done - would require a big shift in outlook.
I've got £10 on Steve Baker in this market at 100-1 too, which looks more plausible this week than it did last.
But, if he did, he'd be absolutely crazy. Destiny often doesn't coming a-knocking twice.
Again, I don't think there's a vacancy. But, if there were, he'd be taking on a party with a majority of 80 and four years on its term. Yes, it's a very tough period economically and socially coming up... but people do still understand there has been a major natural disaster.
Unfortunately, there is an alternative leader who is - at least in some polls - more popular than he is. That’s a big problem.