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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll of NON-VOTERS shows that LAB is losing most
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll of NON-VOTERS shows that LAB is losing most from untapped support
The figures are in the chart above and as can be seen nearly a third of the non-voters said Labour. The main point of the poll is to show what would happen if turnout levels could be increased.
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If Ed Miliband is ruthless - which I think he is - he'll reform the system to allocate seats based on population instead of voter registration, like they do in the US.
He has no idea of what he would do in power.
Mike, that is so wrong, I just don't know where to start.
From a purely narrow, selfish, perspective - let's call it from INSIDE the Westminster bubble - you may be right.
But as the political parties have a duty to seek to engage the broader population in the democratic process
Say that her nanny had been charged with "administing posion with intent to annoy". That is just the best criminal charge - what's next: intent to mildly irritate?
"Which sources do you mostly get your political news from?" I don't know how many they could pick, but top of the list were:
BBC TV News 73%
ITV News 34%
Sky News 29%
BBC News Website 26%
Daily Mail 19%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Full-Voters-NonVoters-Report.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/25349160
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/12/north-korea-jang-song-thaek-executed
Yes 63%
No 37%
(18-34 group were 80% yes; 55+ group were 49% yes)
Would be more likely to vote if election day was on a weekend?
Yes 39%
No 61%
(White group 36% yes; non-white group 65% yes)
But I do agree with Charles. Parties do need to engage and build support for their long term agenda outside their natural homelands. This is how seats that were once safe seats become the marginals of the future. Not so long ago there were a number of safe Tory seats in Scotland, Sheffield Hallam was a safe Tory seat etc.
It all depends on the balance between your parties short term and long term views and the balance between these two. I do not expect UKIP to win a single seat in 2015, but the really interesting thing will be the reaction to this. Either they will implode spectacularly, or will have some centres where they have a realistic chance of winning in 2015+, it takes a while to build a marginal.
There is also a matter of trying to engage the wider electorate as Charles suggests. If parties only target swing voters in marginals then they have no justifiable complaint when the rest of us reciprocate by disengaging from them in return.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/12/british-public-support-pay-rise-mps-watchdog
It would be absolute madness. The integrity of the electoral process matters, and online voting goes directly against that.
If I am recalling that directly the proposition that Labour are efficient in GOTV in marginals is true only to a very small extent (a small extent that might make the difference in a marginal seat of course).
What this might also show is why so many pollsters in the past have over estimated Labour's actual performance and find the adjustments they have to make for the lower tendency to vote quite difficult. Labour supporters who do vote no doubt blur quite readily into those that don't and trying to draw the line between the 2 accurately is difficult.
It really is just as well for Labour that they have such charismatic and inspirational leadership eh? If Ed was just boring who knows how soft that polling lead might prove to be.
I just despair that those who claim to be a bastion of intellectual freedom and public virtue could ever have contemplated such guidelines in the first place. What were they thinking?
That said, I wouldn't be in a big hurry to bring in online voting in the UK while the pre-internet generation is still so dominant in administering and verifying what happens.
"Many teenagers in Wales are put off from applying to Oxford and Cambridge Universities because of a lack of self-confidence, says a report.
The man tasked with getting more Welsh children into Oxbridge said teachers often lacked practical advice to offer pupils applying to top universities.
Former Welsh secretary Paul Murphy said pupils should be helped to "aim for the stars".....
"The number of pupils accepted into Oxbridge from Wales has been falling.
Figures have shown the number of comprehensive pupils getting into Oxbridge fell from 96 in 2008 to 76 in 2012."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25354809
It may be easy to commit fraud in the thousands per constituency with electronic voting. Worse, if it is detected, it may throw the entire election into doubt and cause a lack of confidence in the system.
It's nothing to do with the pre-Internet generation. I'm probably in that generation (although I've been on t'Internet since 1989) but I know enough to be very concerned about the security. If anything, the more you know about t'Internet, the more you should worry about general security.
Mr. Tokyo, what problem is online voting supposed to solve? Just because technology can do something doesn't mean that it should.
If you can't be bothered walking a short distance once every 4-5 years then your opinion doesn't matter.
Or just move to compulsory voting. ;-)
I wouldnt count on them voting Labour either. My Balkan colleagues hate anything smacking of Communism with a vengance, think the welfare state featherbeds the workshy, and actively dislike gypsies and muslims. I have them down as UKIP/Golden Dawn swing voters!
Plus all those pensioners will vote from Spain by post or electronically!
Incentivise the current population to move east of the Urals and replace them with oath swearing hard working immigrants.
Bish, bosh, job done.
And no more Soviet govts ever.
Incidentally have you followed your advocacy of higher population densities yet by getting in some lodgers. Perhaps you could also build a shed in your back yard and fill it full of oath swearing hard working immigrants.
If not you're going to have to be incentivised to move to Spain, thus freeing up even more room for oath swearing hard working immigrants.
Bar lots of articles about Nigella and Mandela, there's not much news to read.
England are not doing well at cricket.
Perez has joined Force India, so Di Resta is probably out of the sport.
PB righties think ED is crap
the Nats are singing Flower of Scotland and all the polls are wrong.
Aside from that Nelson Mandela died.
What you're talking about is a combination of registration fraud and voting fraud. The UK system is designed with extremely lax registration requirements, but that doesn't matter too much because if you tried to exploit them at scale you'd catch the non-existent voter when they tried to vote. But the system as designed provided too little accessibility to be used consistently, so we ended up with all kinds of exceptions - if the person you've invented is old, or has a hard time moving around, or lives overseas, they were allowed to vote by post. Then that got expanded even further to cover people who just found postal voting more convenient, which upsets a lot of people here, but probably doesn't make much difference from a registration fraud point of view, because if you're going to make up a voter, you may as well make up an elderly, disabled or overseas voter.
If you moved to online voting, then as you don't have the check at the voting end, so what you'd do would be to beef up the checks at the registration end. A neat way to do it would be to phase it in starting with new voters, by registering voters at school. Most schools know approximately how many students they have, and really well-organized ones even know their names. At the same time you'd give them credentials which would allow them to vote secretly, even if someone was watching them when they did it. This will give you a proper secret ballot, unlike the current secret ballot system which has already been pretty much entirely broken by portable camera technology, and will be even more useless ten years from now.
In return a well-designed system will then give you much better audit trails, more convenience without compromising security, and much cheaper elections. Cheaper elections mean you can expand what you vote on - for example, parties are currently discouraged from holding primaries because of the cost, but there's no need for that - and you could expand referendums too, if that's what you wanted to do. Also you wouldn't have to close loads of primary schools to have elections in them, which is one of those outrageous things that we only accept because we're used to it. I'm not talking about how much you worry about it, I'm talking about whether you know what kind of thing to worry about. For example, there are electronic voting systems in the US with ludicrously bad transparency - proprietary code, weak audit trails, badly managed updates - that, were you to do the equivalent with a paper system, would have everybody involved screaming blue murder. Because it's managed by a generation that isn't used to these things, they're overlooking all kinds of problems that could be fixed.
'26 cowardly Scots MPs refuse to come out and say whether they are in favour of their impending 11 per cent pay rise'
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/26-cowardly-scots-mps-refuse-2921124
First picture: Alistair Darling!
Jim Murphy, Charlie Kennedy, Ian Davidson, Cathy Jamieson, Malcolm Bruce and Michael Moore are also in there.
Just seen this and it made me LOL
Tim Worstall @worstall
Bugger!: ”Being an incorrigible rogue”, under the Vagrancy Act 1824, is one of 309 offences to be repealed and... bit.ly/1j2cfrW
Yep, I think I know the kind of things to be worried about, thanks.
Talking about problems with the code and hardware (and some current EV systems are hideous) is irrelevant until the shape of the system is defined. And as you say, it may be unlike current voting systems.
The problem with electronic voting is that there is so much of concern, in so many areas, however it is done. I agree with the tightening up of voter registration that would be needed, but that is just a small part of the problem.
For one thing, the system would need to be able to ensure that the person issuing a vote is the actual voter, and not someone else or even a bot running late-on using identities of people who have not voted. It would also have to be protected from man-in-the-middle and other forms of attack. The credentials you talk of are problematic: people are hopeless with credentials IRL as well as on the Internet.
It is also important that the audit trail can say that the person who voted had the right to vote, and only vote once in each individual poll; yet not be able to tell who it was who voted to allow anonymity. That may not be seen as a very important factor in UK polling, but is vital in more historically repressive regimes.
You mentioned accessibility, yet it should be remembered that, as strange as it may seem, not everyone has the Internet, or has even used the Internet (1), and the people who have not are likely to be elderly. Any EV system would have to have a non-EV component to cater for such people.
These are just some of the issues, which we could discuss all day. But the problems are not easy or simple to fix or work around, and the risks significant.
Could such a system work? Perhaps. Could such a system be secure, reliable, and have the confidence of the public? Not using the Internet in its current form.
(1): http://www.gezsmith.com/how-many-people-in-the-uk-use-the-internet/
Meanwhile Ed Balls is studying South African sign language via the ANC correspondance course.
- The Lib Dem MP looked clueless as he struggled to justify the Con-Dem welfare cuts that are plunging Scottish children into a life of poverty. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scottish-secretary-alistair-carmichael-fails-2921487
If the future of the Union is resting, even partly, on Carmichael's shoulders then the Yes campaign have reason to be encouraged.
Apparently :
Kim Jong-Un has joined Force India, so his uncle is probably out of the sport
Perez and Di Resta are not doing well
And the England cricket team have been executed
More seriously, I think there's a case for some small pilot projects here, say for a few town councils where it doesn't really matter if the Monster Raving Loonies sweep the board. There are as you say obvious risks, but the current system has gaps too (does anyone ask you prove you're Mr Jessop when you go to vote?) and only seems satisfactory because we're used to it.
Secure network, readily accessible and the lower orders can select an MP whilst splurging their benefits money on fags'n'cider in the 24 hour MiniMart.
Chuck in a free scratch card and you're guaranteed a high turnout.
However, I'm also in favour of compulsory voting. ;-)
In the areas I have lived, I have been asked to show my poll card, and asked my name and address. I can't remember having been asked for ID. That is hardly the most onerous security. But it is also one of the advantages of the in-person voting: to commit fraud you have to have access to the poll card, and also enough people to go around the polling stations and make a difference.
This makes large-scale fraud at the polling station hard. Individuals can commit fraud, but it is hard for many people to do so. Leaving aside PV, the most effective place to commit widescale fraud would be at the count, which is probably why parties have observers at the counts.
EV allows the potential for fraud on a massive scale.
Ok off we go then .... and firstly a clue !!
The answer does not involve Scottish nobles - No Sireee .... although I think the Coalition should legislate that 50% of all quiz questions answers should feature members of the North British aristocracy, but that's just a personal foible.
.............................
Which historic high office and political party links :
a. The firebrand "son of a washerwoman"
b. The father of the first female spitfire pilot in WWII.
c. The husband of a lady of a former Portuguese Asian colony
And who are the three individuals ?
Of course, if the aim of an Oxbridge education is to make the right contacts, diluting the presence of "the right sort of people" rather spoils the pudding.
One does not need to be disinterested to recognise a turkey when you see one.
Now, if we stop spinning for a moment, that actually raises an interesting point. If rehearsing taking tests works, then the increased focus on testing and practising for GCSEs probably explains part of "grade inflation". That is not to say the questions have not been dumbed down, but that it is not the whole story.
b) The father of the first female spitfire pilot in WWII: Robert Gower? (Although his daughter was the head of the Air Transport Auxiliary; I'm not sure she was it's first pilot. Indeed, I'm not sure how you can class who was the first)
Not sure about c.
b. No not Robert Gower. This as you imply is slightly more tricky but the lady concerned is broadly acknowledged as the first female spitfire pilot.
c. Further clue - "You picked the ball up and ran with it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Sorry what are you complaining about ? New public housing at the highest level since 1993 and rising ?
Meanwhile Ed is posting selfies with Lily Allen - he may think she is Ruth Madoc mind you..
http://www.cityam.com/article/1386896602/few-predicted-london-s-reinvention-we-can-build-its-future-growth
Economic importance of London.
No wonder Labour did nothing in office - like tim - unlike IDS - unlike GO - too timid.
Dear old Ralph would be very proud.
http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2012/12/ed-miliband-kept-boring-my-ear-off-and-pestering-me-for-a-picture-zzzzz.html
c. "Strictly" speaking this person is by far the most well known of the three and is presently an MP
Bowling coach David Saker has just been interviewed and is steaming regarding the terrible length our boys have bowled today, and the team selection, which leads me to my original point...
It should not be allowed for a foreigner to play any role in international sport. It is utterly ridiculous that an Australian is in charge of England's bowling in the Ashes..
International sport should be about how good each nation is, and that means in every single aspect, coaching, physiotherapy etc etc
It should be a matter of complete and utter shame to resort to hiring a foreigner, let alone the unfairness of it on poorer nations who can't afford such good coaches etc
I know we have SA born players, and I would look more closely at that too, but at least they are claiming to be English
http://www.cityam.com/article/1386903318/britain-s-great-wage-squeeze-ends-last
If a party are only going to possibly get between 30-44 the margin of error should be 2 at most... So movement of more than one is outside the MOE
In a spread betting 25 Index (min 0 max 25) the spread would be 1.5
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25355233