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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far Boris’s leader ratings are holding up well – but that could start to change

The Wikipedia chart above shows all the leader ratings for the Prime Minister since the start of the year. As can be seen he has been doing pretty well during the pandemic with some very impressive figures. He’s had big positives throughout.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney

First ... again!

FrancisUrquhart

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Philip_Thompson

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

There's really not much more the government can do is there? The amount of money thrown at this via vaccines etc and the speed of the furlough scheme etc is quite breathtaking when you step back and look at it.

peter_from_putney

Typical barbed anti-Tory comment from OGH which we have become accustomed to seeing day after day after day.

MaxPB

I think now that people have had time to digest the new "stay alert" messaging it's going down better than I expected. Lots of people going out but there does seem to be a concerted effort from.everyone to keep their distance. I think Boris will have to do another address to the nation on mask wearing though, basically teach everyone how to put on on, how to take off correctly and make them mandatory. Take up is pitiful around these parts. I've shaved my beard to wear one.😭

rottenborough

In Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania—Democrats’ so-called “Blue Wall”—19 counties report coronavirus cases doubling in less than 14 days. Trump won all but one of those counties, by an average of 65 percent.

Democrats are working to ensure that doesn’t happen again by casting his stewardship over the virus and economy as a betrayal.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/14/coronavirus-economic-collapse-rust-belt-trump-259657

Malmesbury

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

FrancisUrquhart

MaxPB said:

I think now that people have had time to digest the new "stay alert" messaging it's going down better than I expected. Lots of people going out but there does seem to be a concerted effort from.everyone to keep their distance. I think Boris will have to do another address to the nation on mask wearing though, basically teach everyone how to put on on, how to take off correctly and make them mandatory. Take up is pitiful around these parts. I've shaved my beard to wear one.😭

There was a ridiculous over reaction to a bloody slogan. The biggest mistake the government made was pre-announcing an announcement nearly a week before hand and then not putting out the detailed documentation at the same time as the speech.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Hopefully it'll mean we're at or near the top of the queue for one of them should one come good.

FrancisUrquhart

League Two clubs vote to end season, but League One teams fail to decide - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52679614

Celebration time, my team, Crewe Alex, have got promoted....

AlastairMeeks

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Hopefully it'll mean we're at or near the top of the queue for one of them should one come good.

Well if the PC police have their way we will be back of the queue...too white, too rich, too male...

The big thing the government got right , got lucky is already well on the ay to building this vaccine production facility and government pushed the fast forward button on getting it built 2 years early.

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I think now that people have had time to digest the new "stay alert" messaging it's going down better than I expected. Lots of people going out but there does seem to be a concerted effort from.everyone to keep their distance. I think Boris will have to do another address to the nation on mask wearing though, basically teach everyone how to put on on, how to take off correctly and make them mandatory. Take up is pitiful around these parts. I've shaved my beard to wear one.😭

There was a ridiculous over reaction to a bloody slogan. The biggest mistake the government made was pre-announcing an announcement nearly a week before hand and then not putting out the detailed documentation at the same time as the speech.

That was a bit silly but I wonder if he felt pressured to give the detail to the Commons first.

But yes, the slogan reminded me of great moments in our politics like the pasty tax and other things that of that ilk that passed all normal people by.

noneoftheabove

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Hopefully it'll mean we're at or near the top of the queue for one of them should one come good.

It seems like the place of manufacture has more power to decide who gets them rather than the place of research. And our lot arent exactly great at working with other countries or signing favourable agreements.

squareroot2

peter_from_putney said:

Typical barbed anti-Tory comment from OGH which we have become accustomed to seeing day after day after day.

OGH is from the left of centre. He is not going to like this Govt.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I think now that people have had time to digest the new "stay alert" messaging it's going down better than I expected. Lots of people going out but there does seem to be a concerted effort from.everyone to keep their distance. I think Boris will have to do another address to the nation on mask wearing though, basically teach everyone how to put on on, how to take off correctly and make them mandatory. Take up is pitiful around these parts. I've shaved my beard to wear one.😭

There was a ridiculous over reaction to a bloody slogan. The biggest mistake the government made was pre-announcing an announcement nearly a week before hand and then not putting out the detailed documentation at the same time as the speech.

That was a bit silly but I wonder if he felt pressured to give the detail to the Commons first.

But yes, the slogan reminded me of great moments in our politics like the pasty tax and other things that of that ilk that passed all normal people by.

The problem was never the slogan. The problem was the absence of thought behind it.

I'm sure my mother's reaction was fairly typical: "it's a bit wishy-washy but I suppose we've just got to be sensible."

noneoftheabove

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Hopefully it'll mean we're at or near the top of the queue for one of them should one come good.

Well if the PC police have their way we will be back of the queue...too white, too rich, too male...

The big thing the government got right , got lucky is already well on the ay to building this vaccine production facility and government pushed the fast forward button on getting it built 2 years early.

Not sure if stats are available but not surprised if on global terms:

white more likely to die than non white
rich more likely to die than poor
male more likely to die than female

Its different within a country, generally it is the poor and minorities in the rich countries who are suffering the worst so far.

eristdoof

Mortimer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

KentRising said:

Lockdown is over in Whitstable.

Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:

- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon.
- I was the only one wearing a mask.
- No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing.
- All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.

Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,

What a complete farce.

Its like the behavioural scientists known a thing or two when they said people won't stick to a full lockdown for extended periods of time.

Just didn't see the masks ever taking off, to be honest. Spotted 1 (!) today whilst walking the dog for 5mi, which was correctly worn - it was a proper full on gas mask. About 7 or 8 worn incorrectly, mostly as chin guards.

Lots of people fingering them to answer phone etc. Honestly, I can see why the government aren't going to push this one - its so not ingrained in our culture

If you are outside and more than a few metres away from everyone else, then there is no need to cover your mouth and nose. By wearing it as a "chin guard" you can put the mask in its proper place in half a second when someone gets a bit nearer.

Mortimer

MaxPB said:

I think now that people have had time to digest the new "stay alert" messaging it's going down better than I expected. Lots of people going out but there does seem to be a concerted effort from.everyone to keep their distance. I think Boris will have to do another address to the nation on mask wearing though, basically teach everyone how to put on on, how to take off correctly and make them mandatory. Take up is pitiful around these parts. I've shaved my beard to wear one.😭

Mask wearing just ain't gonna happen in the UK, it seems.

dixiedean

"In a month or two we will be moving on from pandemic to post-pandemic politics".
Are you sure?

Philip_Thompson

FPT

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Looks very much like they are just stuck at 80 deaths a day.

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1261271110697586690?s=20

Yes, there's no downwards trend in Sweden, to put it into context, 80 deaths per day in Sweden is the same as ~520 in the UK, just in hospitals. The problem for the Swedish strategy is that it may produce better short term economic growth (or lesser contraction) but it's a situation they are going to be stuck with for a long time and may end up causing irreversible damage as companies decide to up sticks and move to countries which are fully open for business in October.

How will any country be fully open for business in October without a vaccine?

Ideally we'll have the infection rate at close to zero and be monitoring all incoming people with tests and mandatory quarantine periods. What we (and other European countries) are trying to do is get the domestic transmission rate to as close to zero as possible and ensure all arrivals are tested on the way or put into quarantine. That will allow for a pretty wide reopening of the economy including pubs and bars. The question is whether we can achieve this by October before it gets very cold and the viral transmission rate rises due to people coughing and sneezing more.

We’re not trying to do that. We’re trying to balance reopening the economy with keeping the domestic transmission rate around 1 or below.

We are trying to do that.

If transmission rate is 1 or below then number of cases will be logarithmically falling to zero - and from a low base after lockdown too. There may be cases transmitting but they will be as close to zero as possible.

noneoftheabove

eristdoof said:

Mortimer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

KentRising said:

Lockdown is over in Whitstable.

Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:

- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon.
- I was the only one wearing a mask.
- No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing.
- All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.

Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,

What a complete farce.

Its like the behavioural scientists known a thing or two when they said people won't stick to a full lockdown for extended periods of time.

Just didn't see the masks ever taking off, to be honest. Spotted 1 (!) today whilst walking the dog for 5mi, which was correctly worn - it was a proper full on gas mask. About 7 or 8 worn incorrectly, mostly as chin guards.

Lots of people fingering them to answer phone etc. Honestly, I can see why the government aren't going to push this one - its so not ingrained in our culture

If you are outside and more than a few metres away from everyone else, then there is no need to cover your mouth and nose. By wearing it as a "chin guard" you can put the mask in its proper place in half a second when someone gets a bit nearer.

Isnt such logic a key reason why the WHO dont recommend them?

The virus lasts longer on fabric than skin, so each time you are adjusting it you might be spreading the virus around, in a manner that wouldnt have happened without the mask.

FrancisUrquhart

eristdoof said:

Mortimer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

KentRising said:

Lockdown is over in Whitstable.

Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:

- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon.
- I was the only one wearing a mask.
- No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing.
- All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.

Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,

What a complete farce.

Its like the behavioural scientists known a thing or two when they said people won't stick to a full lockdown for extended periods of time.

Just didn't see the masks ever taking off, to be honest. Spotted 1 (!) today whilst walking the dog for 5mi, which was correctly worn - it was a proper full on gas mask. About 7 or 8 worn incorrectly, mostly as chin guards.

Lots of people fingering them to answer phone etc. Honestly, I can see why the government aren't going to push this one - its so not ingrained in our culture

If you are outside and more than a few metres away from everyone else, then there is no need to cover your mouth and nose. By wearing it as a "chin guard" you can put the mask in its proper place in half a second when someone gets a bit nearer.

The problem is all that fiddling with it risks cross infection.

DecrepiterJohnL

eristdoof said:

Mortimer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

KentRising said:

Lockdown is over in Whitstable.

Just been out to the supermarket for the first time in week:

- Streets heaving with people enjoying themsleves like it's a normal summer Friday afternoon.
- I was the only one wearing a mask.
- No limit on the number of people in Sainsbury's, and no one social distancing.
- All restaurants and takeaways open for takeaway. Long queues and barely any social distancing.

Meanwhile, everyone's on furlough and the economy's going down the shitter,

What a complete farce.

Its like the behavioural scientists known a thing or two when they said people won't stick to a full lockdown for extended periods of time.

Just didn't see the masks ever taking off, to be honest. Spotted 1 (!) today whilst walking the dog for 5mi, which was correctly worn - it was a proper full on gas mask. About 7 or 8 worn incorrectly, mostly as chin guards.

Lots of people fingering them to answer phone etc. Honestly, I can see why the government aren't going to push this one - its so not ingrained in our culture

If you are outside and more than a few metres away from everyone else, then there is no need to cover your mouth and nose. By wearing it as a "chin guard" you can put the mask in its proper place in half a second when someone gets a bit nearer.

That's right. People are judging mask behaviour by the standards of Holby City. We just need people very close by to catch their own saliva, not perform a heart transplant.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Big_G_NorthWales

League 2 ends season

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

The government's been ramping up those.

Its worth noting that early on in this pandemic PPE was being used at over 50x the normal rate. That means every single week we're using an entire year's stockpile of PPE - and at no stage was there a national run out of PPE, though there were some logistical issues with getting it out early on.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I think now that people have had time to digest the new "stay alert" messaging it's going down better than I expected. Lots of people going out but there does seem to be a concerted effort from.everyone to keep their distance. I think Boris will have to do another address to the nation on mask wearing though, basically teach everyone how to put on on, how to take off correctly and make them mandatory. Take up is pitiful around these parts. I've shaved my beard to wear one.😭

There was a ridiculous over reaction to a bloody slogan. The biggest mistake the government made was pre-announcing an announcement nearly a week before hand and then not putting out the detailed documentation at the same time as the speech.

That was a bit silly but I wonder if he felt pressured to give the detail to the Commons first.

But yes, the slogan reminded me of great moments in our politics like the pasty tax and other things that of that ilk that passed all normal people by.

The problem was never the slogan. The problem was the absence of thought behind it.

I'm sure my mother's reaction was fairly typical: "it's a bit wishy-washy but I suppose we've just got to be sensible."

So it is with slogans.

Philip_Thompson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

League 2 ends season

I'm worried Tranmere are going to be relegated and was quite confident we weren't going to be without this. League One, we're in the drop zone by 3 points but with a game in hand and an inferior goal difference. But we'd just won the last 3 games in a row and were getting into some good form so looked like climbing out of the drop zone. Another week or two let alone to the end of the season we could quite easily have climbed out of the drop zone.

JonCisBack

MaxPB said:

I think now that people have had time to digest the new "stay alert" messaging it's going down better than I expected. Lots of people going out but there does seem to be a concerted effort from.everyone to keep their distance. I think Boris will have to do another address to the nation on mask wearing though, basically teach everyone how to put on on, how to take off correctly and make them mandatory. Take up is pitiful around these parts. I've shaved my beard to wear one.😭

Self-selecting sample for sure buy my facebook and whatsapp feed has been fairly full of piss-taking about snowflakes who claim "not to understand" the stay alert message. One shared widely is a picture of the motorway sign saying "tiredness kills - Take A Break" with some comments underneath saying "Oooh it's so confusing, what do they mean by a break? How long? When? Where?" or words to that effect, clearly designed to mock those who don;t understand a simple message

All very amusing but i am less amused by the vehement backlash against the very tentative and limited opening of schools. This seems entirely reasonable to me and middle class parents who want zero risk in their lives are risking causing great damage to a lot of children in circumstances at home where they are getting little or no home schooling and possibly even not enough food etc etc

It must be time to get kids back to school at least a bit - the damage being done to our children in such circumstances is a real concern. Jocasta and Tarquin will be fine but not all kids are in such fortunate situations.

If Denmark can do it surely so can we.

A wise manager once told me: Don't say "No because", say "Yes if..."

squareroot2

Tests

MarqueeMark

Another "so far the Earth is still going round the Sun...but that could start to change" thread.....

DavidL

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

League 2 ends season

I'm worried Tranmere are going to be relegated and was quite confident we weren't going to be without this. League One, we're in the drop zone by 3 points but with a game in hand and an inferior goal difference. But we'd just won the last 3 games in a row and were getting into some good form so looked like climbing out of the drop zone. Another week or two let alone to the end of the season we could quite easily have climbed out of the drop zone.

In Scotland they used points per game which means that you would get some advantage from the game in hand but perhaps not enough.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

DecrepiterJohnL

squareroot2 said:

peter_from_putney said:

Typical barbed anti-Tory comment from OGH which we have become accustomed to seeing day after day after day.

OGH is from the left of centre. He is not going to like this Govt.

OGH is a LibDem and the LibDems are right of centre. They went into coalition with the Conservatives; they refused to countenance voting with Labour; they are the only party fiddling about the deficit while Rome burns.

FrancisUrquhart

JonCisBack said:

MaxPB said:

I think now that people have had time to digest the new "stay alert" messaging it's going down better than I expected. Lots of people going out but there does seem to be a concerted effort from.everyone to keep their distance. I think Boris will have to do another address to the nation on mask wearing though, basically teach everyone how to put on on, how to take off correctly and make them mandatory. Take up is pitiful around these parts. I've shaved my beard to wear one.😭

Self-selecting sample for sure buy my facebook and whatsapp feed has been fairly full of piss-taking about snowflakes who claim "not to understand" the stay alert message. One shared widely is a picture of the motorway sign saying "tiredness kills - Take A Break" with some comments underneath saying "Oooh it's so confusing, what do they mean by a break? How long? When? Where?" or words to that effect, clearly designed to mock those who don;t understand a simple message

All very amusing but i am less amused by the vehement backlash against the very tentative and limited opening of schools. This seems entirely reasonable to me and middle class parents who want zero risk in their lives are risking causing great damage to a lot of children in circumstances at home where they are getting little or no home schooling and possibly even not enough food etc etc

It must be time to get kids back to school at least a bit - the damage being done to our children in such circumstances is a real concern. Jocasta and Tarquin will be fine but not all kids are in such fortunate situations.

If Denmark can do it surely so can we.

A wise manager once told me: Don't say "No because", say "Yes if..."

Reminds me of the Jonathan Haidt book, The Coddling of the American Mind: How Good Intentions and Bad Ideas Are Setting Up a Generation for Failure

Philip_Thompson

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

League 2 ends season

I'm worried Tranmere are going to be relegated and was quite confident we weren't going to be without this. League One, we're in the drop zone by 3 points but with a game in hand and an inferior goal difference. But we'd just won the last 3 games in a row and were getting into some good form so looked like climbing out of the drop zone. Another week or two let alone to the end of the season we could quite easily have climbed out of the drop zone.

In Scotland they used points per game which means that you would get some advantage from the game in hand but perhaps not enough.

Wouldn't be enough.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

Because there was an insufficient manufacturing base from which to order it in this country. And most other countries were more interested in supplying themselves.

The box of 50 masks we got today have come here from China. Which is a bit ironic, really.

DecrepiterJohnL

MarqueeMark said:

Another "so far the Earth is still going round the Sun...but that could start to change" thread.....

It is the same as last time isn't it? There has been no new poll released.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1261314996904112131

Richard_Nabavi

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

Good question.

Which governments didn't, so that we have a valid comparison base?

DavidL

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another "so far the Earth is still going round the Sun...but that could start to change" thread.....

It is the same as last time isn't it? There has been no new poll released.

I think that these criticisms of the thread headers are a little bit unfair. Several a day are needed and they don't exactly inhibit the chat below the line.

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1261314996904112131

Its as if they don't really want to implement a quarantine rule for new arrivals....of course when it all kicks off again, its going to be shit storm.

noneoftheabove

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1261314996904112131

First it was for arrival by air.....that lasted a few hours before it became all forms of transport.

Have they confirmed what quarantine is yet? Is it just dont go out but we wont check?

FrancisUrquhart

On PPE, it is worth noting that the largest British owned manufacturer of PPE had their entire production facilities and stock seized by the Chinese government.

Now that exposes a strategic weakness that needs to be addressed, but it does rather complicate things in the short term.

Andy_JS

Dalrymple article.

"A wise man knows that he must put things into perspective, but a still wiser man knows what perspective to put them into. A doctor who tells the widow of a patient who has just died that, after all, her husband’s was only one of 2,800,000 deaths a year in the United States alone (56,000,000 worldwide) is a monster of insensitivity. But an epidemiologist who tries to express his compassion for every death that he enumerates will never progress beyond his first statistical table. The proper perspective ­changes with context.

What is the correct perspective into which the average citizen should put the current pandemic of the coronavirus, assuming that there is a single correct perspective for him to put it into? Most people, I surmise, veer between complacency and panic. They are like home investors who follow the fluct­uations of the stock market with febrile attention. A graph showing exponential growth in the number of cases induces a state of anxiety; a histogram showing a decline in the number of deaths the day before causes a burst of relief that the worst is over."

https://www.firstthings.com/article/2020/06/catastrophism-and-control

AlastairMeeks

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

Sunil_Prasannan

MarqueeMark said:

Another "so far the Earth is still going round the Sun...but that could start to change" thread.....

That situation won't last forever, you know! In 4 billion years' time, the Sun will expand into a red giant, consuming all planets, moons and asteroids out to the orbit of Mars...

DavidL

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another "so far the Earth is still going round the Sun...but that could start to change" thread.....

That situation won't last forever, you know! In 4 billion years' time, the Sun will expand into a red giant, consuming all planets, moons and asteroids out to the orbit of Mars...

I suspect Boris's poll lead may be even shorter than that.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1261317227195793410

MarqueeMark

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Another "so far the Earth is still going round the Sun...but that could start to change" thread.....

That situation won't last forever, you know! In 4 billion years' time, the Sun will expand into a red giant, consuming all planets, moons and asteroids out to the orbit of Mars...

I would go so far as to admit that Boris' ratings will not last 4 billion years.....

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1261317227195793410

Now what did I say about all those VE day parties and the bank holiday weekend...The authorities must be somewhat concerned about the end of Ramadan coming up in a 10 days time.

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

It is enraging, but that doesn't mean they weren't doing everything they could. And again, despite us using a years worth of PPE every single week we never ran out, but that doesn't make everything perfect and when it comes to PPE anything less than perfection is enraging.

Is that complicated to understand?

noneoftheabove

FrancisUrquhart said:

On PPE, it is worth noting that the largest British owned manufacturer of PPE had their entire production facilities and stock seized by the Chinese government.

Now that exposes a strategic weakness that needs to be addressed, but it does rather complicate things in the short term.

Can we complain effectively to the WTO? No? Well why do people think trading under WTO rules is going to work for us? They are not effective at all, might is right, and the vast majority of our trade is with mightier countries and groups than the UK.

Philip_Thompson

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1261314996904112131

First it was for arrival by air.....that lasted a few hours before it became all forms of transport.

Have they confirmed what quarantine is yet? Is it just dont go out but we wont check?

No they've said the details will be announced by the end of the month I think.

FrancisUrquhart

Lovely....random member of public getting abuse for having a view.

https://order-order.com/2020/05/15/ryan-plumber-abuse-hes-received-understanding-stay-alert-messaging/

DavidL

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1261317227195793410

That's...disappointing. But perhaps not too surprising given the evident relaxation over the last week with far more people outside.

AlastairMeeks

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

It is enraging, but that doesn't mean they weren't doing everything they could. And again, despite us using a years worth of PPE every single week we never ran out, but that doesn't make everything perfect and when it comes to PPE anything less than perfection is enraging.

Is that complicated to understand?

The knots you tie yourself in get ever tighter.

I note that not even you this time attempt the amazing contortion of trying to persuade the world that the Prime Minister is simultaneously near-perfect and completely irrelevant to the government's performance.

FrancisUrquhart

noneoftheabove said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

On PPE, it is worth noting that the largest British owned manufacturer of PPE had their entire production facilities and stock seized by the Chinese government.

Now that exposes a strategic weakness that needs to be addressed, but it does rather complicate things in the short term.

Can we complain effectively to the WTO? No? Well why do people think trading under WTO rules is going to work for us? They are not effective at all, might is right, and the vast majority of our trade is with mightier countries and groups than the UK.

EU countries are getting ripped off just the same and there is nothing they can do either. China will do what China wants, that is reality of the world we live in today.

Malmesbury

noneoftheabove said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

On PPE, it is worth noting that the largest British owned manufacturer of PPE had their entire production facilities and stock seized by the Chinese government.

Now that exposes a strategic weakness that needs to be addressed, but it does rather complicate things in the short term.

Can we complain effectively to the WTO? No? Well why do people think trading under WTO rules is going to work for us? They are not effective at all, might is right, and the vast majority of our trade is with mightier countries and groups than the UK.

The same answer for all the other "modification of ordinary trading behaviour" done by other countries - "strategic necessity".

No trading agreements have protected anyone from this.

Andy_JS

Another overblown bit of journalist about R.

The reality is the range has changed from "0.5 to 0.9" to "0.7 to 1".

DavidL

Philip_Thompson said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1261314996904112131

First it was for arrival by air.....that lasted a few hours before it became all forms of transport.

Have they confirmed what quarantine is yet? Is it just dont go out but we wont check?

No they've said the details will be announced by the end of the month I think.

The end of the month. This is just embarrassing. I really don't understand the thinking behind this at all. If we had brought in mandatory quarantine in February for those coming back from the ski slopes or from Madrid we would almost certainly not be where we are.

Fysics_Teacher

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

It is enraging, but that doesn't mean they weren't doing everything they could. And again, despite us using a years worth of PPE every single week we never ran out, but that doesn't make everything perfect and when it comes to PPE anything less than perfection is enraging.

Is that complicated to understand?

The knots you tie yourself in get ever tighter.

I note that not even you this time attempt the amazing contortion of trying to persuade the world that the Prime Minister is simultaneously near-perfect and completely irrelevant to the government's performance.

Try engaging with the argument rather than attacking the person making it.

FrancisUrquhart

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1261314996904112131

First it was for arrival by air.....that lasted a few hours before it became all forms of transport.

Have they confirmed what quarantine is yet? Is it just dont go out but we wont check?

No they've said the details will be announced by the end of the month I think.

The end of the month. This is just embarrassing. I really don't understand the thinking behind this at all. If we had brought in mandatory quarantine in February for those coming back from the ski slopes or from Madrid we would almost certainly not be where we are.

And being an island it isn't exactly rocket science....it is harder than New Zealand, given the amount of freight coming and going from Ireland and France / Belgium every day, but still.

noneoftheabove

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

It is enraging, but that doesn't mean they weren't doing everything they could. And again, despite us using a years worth of PPE every single week we never ran out, but that doesn't make everything perfect and when it comes to PPE anything less than perfection is enraging.

Is that complicated to understand?

Part of not running out is achieved by rationing access to it based on the medical advice, that was entirely necessary but it then becomes a bit misleading to say we never ran out.

If we had double available, we would have used more and front line staff would have been better protected. If we had 10x more we would have used much more and not only front line staff but also other workers in supermarkets, buses etc would have had more access too.

We had problems with it but broadly on PPE have done ok, nothing special either way - not everything has to be a big success or a big failure.

Andy_JS

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1261317227195793410

That's...disappointing. But perhaps not too surprising given the evident relaxation over the last week with far more people outside.

The upper limit of the range has changed from 0.9 to 1.0, not as big a change as you'd expect from the headline.

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

It is enraging, but that doesn't mean they weren't doing everything they could. And again, despite us using a years worth of PPE every single week we never ran out, but that doesn't make everything perfect and when it comes to PPE anything less than perfection is enraging.

Is that complicated to understand?

The knots you tie yourself in get ever tighter.

I note that not even you this time attempt the amazing contortion of trying to persuade the world that the Prime Minister is simultaneously near-perfect and completely irrelevant to the government's performance.

Of course not. Our PM is human, he's doing a pretty good job in difficult circumstances. To be honest I think the same likely could have been said if the PM were other PMs I liked like Cameron and Blair, or PMs I disliked like May and Brown.

I am very glad our PM is not someone like Trump across the pond. Now that is truly enraging and shows someone truly negligent.

BannedinnParis

Andy_JS said:

Another overblown bit of journalist about R.

The reality is the range has changed from "0.5 to 0.9" to "0.7 to 1".

that's on the edge of scaremongering

AlastairMeeks

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

It is enraging, but that doesn't mean they weren't doing everything they could. And again, despite us using a years worth of PPE every single week we never ran out, but that doesn't make everything perfect and when it comes to PPE anything less than perfection is enraging.

Is that complicated to understand?

The knots you tie yourself in get ever tighter.

I note that not even you this time attempt the amazing contortion of trying to persuade the world that the Prime Minister is simultaneously near-perfect and completely irrelevant to the government's performance.

Of course not. Our PM is human, he's doing a pretty good job in difficult circumstances. To be honest I think the same likely could have been said if the PM were other PMs I liked like Cameron and Blair, or PMs I disliked like May and Brown.

I am very glad our PM is not someone like Trump across the pond. Now that is truly enraging and shows someone truly negligent.

Donald Trump was at least aware of the virus in February.

noneoftheabove

FrancisUrquhart said:

noneoftheabove said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

On PPE, it is worth noting that the largest British owned manufacturer of PPE had their entire production facilities and stock seized by the Chinese government.

Now that exposes a strategic weakness that needs to be addressed, but it does rather complicate things in the short term.

Can we complain effectively to the WTO? No? Well why do people think trading under WTO rules is going to work for us? They are not effective at all, might is right, and the vast majority of our trade is with mightier countries and groups than the UK.

EU countries are getting ripped off just the same and there is nothing they can do either. China will do what China wants, that is reality of the world we live in today.

Yes China will do what China wants.
And the US will do what the US wants.
And the EU will do what the EU wants.

The sooner we understand the reality of those 3 statements and the implications for the UK the sooner we can have a realistic trade and foreign policy.

FrancisUrquhart

Andy_JS said:

Another overblown bit of journalist about R.

The reality is the range has changed from "0.5 to 0.9" to "0.7 to 1".

I know if you re-read the tweet carefully it isn't lying, but that is scare-mongering. It should read median estimation of R has risen from 0.7 to 0.85.

Philip_Thompson

noneoftheabove said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

It is enraging, but that doesn't mean they weren't doing everything they could. And again, despite us using a years worth of PPE every single week we never ran out, but that doesn't make everything perfect and when it comes to PPE anything less than perfection is enraging.

Is that complicated to understand?

Part of not running out is achieved by rationing access to it based on the medical advice, that was entirely necessary but it then becomes a bit misleading to say we never ran out.

If we had double available, we would have used more and front line staff would have been better protected. If we had 10x more we would have used much more and not only front line staff but also other workers in supermarkets, buses etc would have had more access too.

We had problems with it but broadly on PPE have done ok, nothing special either way - not everything has to be a big success or a big failure.

That's entirely fair.

When you've got a limited resource and are using 50x your normal stocks it does make sense to ration access via medical priorities.

Malmesbury

FrancisUrquhart said:

Lovely....random member of public getting abuse for having a view.

https://order-order.com/2020/05/15/ryan-plumber-abuse-hes-received-understanding-stay-alert-messaging/

Inevitable. Kancel Kulture fuck wits.

FrancisUrquhart

Brazil president Jair Bolsonaro has lost a health minister for the second time in two months.

Nelson Teich resigned after less than a month in the job having replaced Luiz Henrique Mandetta, who was dismissed.

Bolsonaro on Monday declared gyms and hair salons as essential services that can stay open through the new coronavirus outbreak, but Teich said his ministry had not been consulted. Brazilian media say the final straw appears to have been Bolsonaro's backing for chloroquine as a treatment, despite it being of no proven benefit.

FrancisUrquhart

Christ alive, $400 million for a website full of gifs...

Facebook is buying Giphy and integrating it with Instagram

https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/15/21259965/facebook-giphy-gif-acquisition-buy-instagram-integration-cost

FrancisUrquhart

Crucial to note...this new R value estimation.

"They do not factor in the changes to lockdown announced by the prime minister on Sunday."

----

Also,

Claims there are now just 24 cases a day in the capital and that it could soon be free of the virus have been slammed. There were in fact 49 people admitted to London hospitals with Covid-19 yesterday and likely hundreds of cases that did not need hospital treatment.

"I am extremely worried about the media message that London could be coronavirus free in days," said Prof Matt Keeling, from the University of Warwick.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

Flatlander

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Another overblown bit of journalist about R.

The reality is the range has changed from "0.5 to 0.9" to "0.7 to 1".

I know if you re-read the tweet carefully it isn't lying, but that is scare-mongering. It should read median estimation of R has risen from 0.7 to 0.85.

Also, there's a statistical anomaly.

As the number of cases in the wider community drops, the transmission in hospitals and care homes becomes ever more dominant. We know that transmission has been higher in these settings for a while, although we don't know how much transmission is contained within these settings and how much is escaping.

If there were more community cases, then R would actually be lower.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1261314996904112131

First it was for arrival by air.....that lasted a few hours before it became all forms of transport.

Have they confirmed what quarantine is yet? Is it just dont go out but we wont check?

No they've said the details will be announced by the end of the month I think.

The end of the month. This is just embarrassing. I really don't understand the thinking behind this at all. If we had brought in mandatory quarantine in February for those coming back from the ski slopes or from Madrid we would almost certainly not be where we are.

And being an island it isn't exactly rocket science....it is harder than New Zealand, given the amount of freight coming and going from Ireland and France / Belgium every day, but still.

Big rows in the cabinet I expect between those who want it voluntary/at home and others who want it perhaps enforced and in empty quarantine hotels.

Philip_Thompson

FrancisUrquhart said:

Christ alive, $400 million for a website full of gifs...

Facebook is buying Giphy and integrating it with Instagram

https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/15/21259965/facebook-giphy-gif-acquisition-buy-instagram-integration-cost

Its an extremely commonly used site.

ABZ

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Another overblown bit of journalist about R.

The reality is the range has changed from "0.5 to 0.9" to "0.7 to 1".

I know if you re-read the tweet carefully it isn't lying, but that is scare-mongering. It should read median estimation of R has risen from 0.7 to 0.85.

It also can be a 'good' thing - if the spread in the community falls very substantially, then estimates will be based more on data from care homes / hospitals where there are current outbreaks. If transmission in those settings is more straightforward, as seems likely, then as you decrease community spread the rate of transmission will rise. Hence, the effort needs to be redoubled to slow spread in care homes / hospitals, which the recent ONS / NRS figures suggest is starting to happen.

AlastairMeeks

FrancisUrquhart said:

Crucial to note...this new R value estimation.

"They do not factor in the changes to lockdown announced by the prime minister on Sunday."

----

Also,

Claims there are now just 24 cases a day in the capital and that it could soon be free of the virus have been slammed. There were in fact 49 people admitted to London hospitals with Covid-19 yesterday and likely hundreds of cases that did not need hospital treatment.

"I am extremely worried about the media message that London could be coronavirus free in days," said Prof Matt Keeling, from the University of Warwick.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

This is just the academic version of whistling in the dark. If there's one thing worse than people making it up as they go along, it's scientists giving them an intellectual excuse to do just that by giving a spurious veneer to some hokey assumptions.

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Apparently the UK is part funding 24 different vaccine approaches.

Essentially everyone with a serious approach to this.

"Waste everything except time"

So, talk to me about the government's approach to testing and to PPE then.

Well, once upon a time the UK was the factory of the world and when we were we invented something called free trade and comparative advantage which seemed to be good things (as indeed they were for us at that time).

Unfortunately we are no longer the factory of the world but we have remained wedded to free trade policies even when these have resulted in us running trade deficits for decades and the loss of manufacturing capacity here in the UK.

When we have an urgent need for PPE, along with everybody else, we find that getting this from our own much diminished manufacturing base is very difficult and needs a lot of gearing up. We also find that a lot of spivs and rather doubtful "traders" want to sell us a load of junk at a premium price. And so we end up taking a while to source PPE.

Was there something else you wanted to know?

Yes. Why the government wasted a month to six weeks on getting both in place adequately.

They didn't. If the government hadn't done anything then PPE would have ran out nationwide and in all locations early on.

We were using over 50x the normal rate of PPE and never ran out, how you think that is "doing nothing" is beyond me.

The Prime MInister found the shortage of PPE enraging. I take my lead from him on that assessment.

The government negligently failed to prepare for a looming pandemic. Perhaps it would have done better if the Prime Minister had bothered to turn up to the Cobra meetings discussing it. Or even decided not to take half of February off as a holiday.

It is enraging, but that doesn't mean they weren't doing everything they could. And again, despite us using a years worth of PPE every single week we never ran out, but that doesn't make everything perfect and when it comes to PPE anything less than perfection is enraging.

Is that complicated to understand?

The knots you tie yourself in get ever tighter.

I note that not even you this time attempt the amazing contortion of trying to persuade the world that the Prime Minister is simultaneously near-perfect and completely irrelevant to the government's performance.

Of course not. Our PM is human, he's doing a pretty good job in difficult circumstances. To be honest I think the same likely could have been said if the PM were other PMs I liked like Cameron and Blair, or PMs I disliked like May and Brown.

I am very glad our PM is not someone like Trump across the pond. Now that is truly enraging and shows someone truly negligent.

Donald Trump was at least aware of the virus in February.

As was Johnson, who had his government making decisions via the relevant Secretary of State in COBR - while Trump was calling it a hoax.

If you honestly think calling it a hoax is better then you're so far devoid from reality its ridiculous!

DavidL

Andy_JS said:

Another overblown bit of journalist about R.

The reality is the range has changed from "0.5 to 0.9" to "0.7 to 1".

I am beginning to seriously wonder if those without a STEM degree should be allowed to "report" on this matter at all.

DavidL

BannedinnParis said:

Andy_JS said:

Another overblown bit of journalist about R.

The reality is the range has changed from "0.5 to 0.9" to "0.7 to 1".

that's on the edge of scaremongering

Its on the edge of innumeracy. Again.

FrancisUrquhart

The government will not extend funding to help rough sleepers in England stay off the streets amid the coronavirus pandemic, it has confirmed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52637283

KentRising

Judging by the way the 'lockdown' (what a joke) is being observed here, we'll have to revert to the full lockdown again in a few days. Not surprised the R is creeping up again, nebulous though that figure is.

malcolmg

FrancisUrquhart said:

League Two clubs vote to end season, but League One teams fail to decide - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52679614

Celebration time, my team, Crewe Alex, have got promoted....

Hopefully they get a game

FF43

FrancisUrquhart said:

Crucial to note...this new R value estimation.

"They do not factor in the changes to lockdown announced by the prime minister on Sunday."

----

Also,

Claims there are now just 24 cases a day in the capital and that it could soon be free of the virus have been slammed. There were in fact 49 people admitted to London hospitals with Covid-19 yesterday and likely hundreds of cases that did not need hospital treatment.

"I am extremely worried about the media message that London could be coronavirus free in days," said Prof Matt Keeling, from the University of Warwick.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

In equilibrium, I think. Not a panic situation but the UK can't afford any relaxation at all.

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

The government will not extend funding to help rough sleepers in England stay off the streets amid the coronavirus pandemic, it has confirmed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52637283

Are we ever going to tolerate them returning to the streets? Surely this is one good that has come of this virus.

Andrew

That Wuhan "test 11 million in 10 days" thing turned out to be bollocks, unsurprisingly. They're taking longer, only doing parts or subsamples of the city, and apparently many millions had left pre-lockdown and never came back.

FrancisUrquhart

Andrew said:

That Wuhan "test 11 million in 10 days" thing turned out to be bollocks, unsurprisingly. They're taking longer, only doing parts or subsamples of the city, and apparently many millions had left pre-lockdown and never came back.

I read their testing capacity before this big push was less than 50k a day.

I know nothing about this NAT test they are using. Is it accurate? How does it differ from the PCR test? Why are they using it rather than PCR?

kamski

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Looks like the quattro has been fired up on testing. Incoming tweet from a journalist saying but tested some people multiple times.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1261301748943257606?s=19

69,590 people. Its almost 2 tests each. Is that not a bit weird?

I have heard it stated that the negative for the swab test is 75% accurate.

So the first negative is 75% probability of being right.
So you try again and get a negative - 93.75% probability of being right.
So you try again.....

On the same day?

I would imagine that it's one of those reporting day issues.

It's not just retesting suspected cases because of false negatives. People working in hospitals and care homes should be tested multiple times. There's also retesting of recovering people to see if they are now clear of the virus.

The proportion of "new" people tested is bound to go down over time, if enough tests are available.

TheScreamingEagles

Andrew said:

That Wuhan "test 11 million in 10 days" thing turned out to be bollocks, unsurprisingly. They're taking longer, only doing parts or subsamples of the city, and apparently many millions had left pre-lockdown and never came back.

Was Matt Hancock involved in the Wuhan testing process?

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Andrew said:

That Wuhan "test 11 million in 10 days" thing turned out to be bollocks, unsurprisingly. They're taking longer, only doing parts or subsamples of the city, and apparently many millions had left pre-lockdown and never came back.

Was Matt Hancock involved in the Wuhan testing process?

Can't have been, if he was they would have managed to test 12 million people...

malcolmg

DavidL said:

Andy_JS said:

Another overblown bit of journalist about R.

The reality is the range has changed from "0.5 to 0.9" to "0.7 to 1".

I am beginning to seriously wonder if those without a STEM degree should be allowed to "report" on this matter at all.

David, maybe much better if none of them had STEM degrees.

dixiedean

They really ought to get an MC and some walk on music for these conferences.
Here he is ! The vanquisher of viruses... The epitome of epidemiology!

DavidL

Andrew said:

That Wuhan "test 11 million in 10 days" thing turned out to be bollocks, unsurprisingly. They're taking longer, only doing parts or subsamples of the city, and apparently many millions had left pre-lockdown and never came back.

And of course quite a lot of them were dead.

ABZ

kamski said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Looks like the quattro has been fired up on testing. Incoming tweet from a journalist saying but tested some people multiple times.

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1261301748943257606?s=19

69,590 people. Its almost 2 tests each. Is that not a bit weird?

I have heard it stated that the negative for the swab test is 75% accurate.

So the first negative is 75% probability of being right.
So you try again and get a negative - 93.75% probability of being right.
So you try again.....

On the same day?

I would imagine that it's one of those reporting day issues.

It's not just retesting suspected cases because of false negatives. People working in hospitals and care homes should be tested multiple times. There's also retesting of recovering people to see if they are now clear of the virus.

The proportion of "new" people tested is bound to go down over time, if enough tests are available.

The number of tests for yesterday includes ~27K Pillar 4 tests (the sampling to get an understanding of the national prevalence) though, so that impacts how they should be interpreted: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

FrancisUrquhart

DavidL said:

Andrew said:

That Wuhan "test 11 million in 10 days" thing turned out to be bollocks, unsurprisingly. They're taking longer, only doing parts or subsamples of the city, and apparently many millions had left pre-lockdown and never came back.

And of course quite a lot of them were dead.

No no no, definitely not, only 3,000 people died, 10,000s of others phones haven't been used in the past 3 months, but they definitely aren't dead....