As I was saying before his big speech the immovable object is social distancing. Everything he announced is predicated upon observing social distancing. You cannot social distance public transport or schools or hospitality. Which means we can defer those things for now and hope the virus dies off by itself.
Otherwise the instructions by July will be go on public transport because you have to take the risk and go back to work in your pub to take the risk because you have to. Then in September we'll send kids back to schools telling their parents and the teachers to take the risk.
They won't of course say risk your lives. I wonder what bullshit slogan they will have invented by then.
Out of interest how much travel is made by public transport under normal circumstances ?
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
We could all stay at home on full pay and take no risks.
But we would all die of starvation after a few months.
The long-term social effects of Lockdown are more significant than the virus itself. I'm good at sitting in bed and drinking tea, some people are in absolute despair and have been for weeks.
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
Social distancing PPE Contact tracing Hygiene Testing
... can all be part of the Stay Alert meme whilst getting on with our lives. Yes, people will die from it. But it's better than sticking inside our houses for months on end.
People will die from every measure of reducing the lockdown.
And from not reducing the lockdown.
Them's the facts. We are in the midst of a pandemic and everything we do will result in more death. It's what pandemics do.
Threading a route through is a little easier now we have an NHS that can take the strain. The Govt. has engineered that - although its monomania came with a terrible cost to care homes. But the working population should largely resume being that - a working population.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
Bollox, what kind of loon are you , people can go out if they want to shops, exercise etc. Just because some halfwits in England want to go to the beach we should not have to follow suit.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
We could all stay at home on full pay and take no risks.
But we would all die of starvation after a few months.
The long-term social effects of Lockdown are more significant than the virus itself. I'm good at sitting in bed and drinking tea, some people are in absolute despair and have been for weeks.
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
As I was saying before his big speech the immovable object is social distancing. Everything he announced is predicated upon observing social distancing. You cannot social distance public transport or schools or hospitality. Which means we can defer those things for now and hope the virus dies off by itself.
Otherwise the instructions by July will be go on public transport because you have to take the risk and go back to work in your pub to take the risk because you have to. Then in September we'll send kids back to schools telling their parents and the teachers to take the risk.
They won't of course say risk your lives. I wonder what bullshit slogan they will have invented by then.
Out of interest how much travel is made by public transport under normal circumstances ?
20-25 million journeys per day. Which is why the stuff about Cheltenham etc was insignificant.
Besides which, the difference between English and Scottish policy presently consists of people being allowed to be static as well as to move in parks, builders being allowed to work on "non-essential" projects, and a different marketing slogan. Unless there are any other little nuances I'm missing?
It's not exactly carnival time south of the Tweed.
Which goes back to the big question in all of this.
Offer Number 10 a time machine.
They can go back to Wednesday morning, not make any excitable references to Sunday's speech at PMQs. Not have the excited headlines Thursday morning.
Do a routine review on Thursday; "numbers moving the right way, but still a way to go. 3 week's more lockdown, but we'll spend the next fortnight looking in detail at possible loosening for the beginning of June. Enjoy VE Day and remain indoors."
If Boris wanted to do a speech tonight, let him do it as a "well done, keep it up, curve going whoosh." Maybe announce the exercise things.
In that scenario- 1. Would the virus have been better controlled over the long weekend? 2. Would the government's standing have been better? 3. Weren't the disadvantages of the approach actually taken pretty obvious to those with eyes to see and ears to hear?
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
We could all stay at home on full pay and take no risks.
But we would all die of starvation after a few months.
The long-term social effects of Lockdown are more significant than the virus itself. I'm good at sitting in bed and drinking tea, some people are in absolute despair and have been for weeks.
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
more bollox
Do you think lockdown doesn't affect people's mental health? You are entitled to your opinion, even if it's wrong.
I’ve got to say this looks pretty bogus as a ground of complaint to me. What employee is going to have been given revised instructions by his or her employer overnight? Previous instructions must stand.
The self-employed have always been able to decide their approach.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
We could all stay at home on full pay and take no risks.
But we would all die of starvation after a few months.
The long-term social effects of Lockdown are more significant than the virus itself. I'm good at sitting in bed and drinking tea, some people are in absolute despair and have been for weeks.
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
more bollox
Do you think lockdown doesn't affect people's mental health? You are entitled to your opinion, even if it's wrong.
Well I think it is exaggerated and if only being allowed out several times a day for at least an hour at a time , etc etc is so dire then their mental health was already affected before the virus. In my humble opinion of course. I have not been out of the house since mid/late February and am managing rather well.
Given that Boris has made a speech on Sunday evening, why would anyone suppose that they now have to attend the office tomorrow when they were either working from home or furloughed before the statement? What a massive prick.
As I was saying before his big speech the immovable object is social distancing. Everything he announced is predicated upon observing social distancing. You cannot social distance public transport or schools or hospitality. Which means we can defer those things for now and hope the virus dies off by itself.
Otherwise the instructions by July will be go on public transport because you have to take the risk and go back to work in your pub to take the risk because you have to. Then in September we'll send kids back to schools telling their parents and the teachers to take the risk.
They won't of course say risk your lives. I wonder what bullshit slogan they will have invented by then.
Out of interest how much travel is made by public transport under normal circumstances ?
20-25 million journeys per day. Which is why the stuff about Cheltenham etc was insignificant.
I'm sure that some infection took place at Cheltenham.
But the people doing the infecting would likely have been infecting other people if they had been someplace other than Cheltenham.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
Scotland v Sweden.
Cretin.
Bit harsh, even after the eighth turnip aqua vitae.
The snowflakes and wobbly jellies are beginning to grate, why is UK full of wimps and whingers. What happened to the country, mummies boys and wimps everywhere.
Genuine question - am I now allowed to drive down to London to see my Mum?
Based on the PMs statement I think you are explicitly allowed to do this if you both meet in the park. Should be more details if you can meet at her home tomorrow.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
We could all stay at home on full pay and take no risks.
But we would all die of starvation after a few months.
The long-term social effects of Lockdown are more significant than the virus itself. I'm good at sitting in bed and drinking tea, some people are in absolute despair and have been for weeks.
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
more bollox
Do you think lockdown doesn't affect people's mental health? You are entitled to your opinion, even if it's wrong.
Well I think it is exaggerated and if only being allowed out several times a day for at least an hour at a time , etc etc is so dire then their mental health was already affected before the virus. In my humble opinion of course. I have not been out of the house since mid/late February and am managing rather well.
Genuine question - am I now allowed to drive down to London to see my Mum?
Based on the PMs statement I think you are explicitly allowed to do this if you both meet in the park. Should be more details if you can meet at her home tomorrow.
Take tennis rackets for an alibi...
Just be consistent. You can't have one with a tennis racket and the other with a golf club.
Given that Boris has made a speech on Sunday evening, why would anyone suppose that they now have to attend the office tomorrow when they were either working from home or furloughed before the statement? What a massive prick.
Much confusion on the messaging, 95% of which is because the press report what they want to hear, or think they've heard, or have heard from people who aren't actually in the loop.
On the substance, the government seems to be trying to ease back from the over-successful initial messaging, towards a position where at some point people, or most of them, need to pivot from being too afraid to go out even under safe conditions. It is a tricky manoeuvre to make, so I would cut them some slack. All the same, 'Keep alert' is a jolly silly strapline - vacuous as Alastair says in the header piece. I thought D. Cummings was supposed to be a master of pithy, effective slogans?
Genuine question - am I now allowed to drive down to London to see my Mum?
Based on the PMs statement I think you are explicitly allowed to do this if you both meet in the park. Should be more details if you can meet at her home tomorrow.
Take tennis rackets for an alibi...
No alibi required, daily walk counts as exercise and you can drive to your choice of exercise.
And the rail journeys in particular will consist disproportionately of people moving around in London, and commuters transiting in and out of the capital and other urban cores.
Social distancing will make life substantially more difficult for people getting around within cities, but out in the suburbs and especially the countryside, where the vast bulk of journeys aren't made on public transport, we should be OK.
However bad the contraction in the economy and the expansion in unemployment turns out to be, the longer term socio-economic trend coming out of all this looks like it will be one of deep and lasting recession in the cities and a much faster recovery outside of them. We'll be able to get back to something resembling normality more rapidly outside the cities, most of the economic activity generated by the commuters will move here because of WFH and, when physical retail and hospitality do eventually stir back into life, a greater proportion of total expenditure will be made nearer to where all those well-off former commuters live.
The big cities could end up consisting predominantly of lots of empty and half-empty office blocks, shuttered bars and restaurants that have gone to the wall through lack of custom, and housing estates for the poor.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
Awfully good of Nicola to cancel death for us.
even more bollox, pathetic ones at that.
On our previous discussion, it emerged that the PPE that Scottish care homes weren't able to buy was because it was from a Public Health England stockpile. Scotland has devolved healthcare for better or worse, and I think you'd have some pretty choice words if Scotland's PPE stocks were being depleted by English care homes.
It's quite alarming that you weren't aware of this. Probably because the filth rag splashed the original 'story' all over the front page and the clarification, if it ever came, was probably on page 22 next to the column written by the dog. Dangerous and toxic.
Editor of the Londoner Diary, Evening Standard. Columnist. Broadcaster. Author. Stand up. After dinner speaker. Feminist. Former Labour adviser. Formerly busy.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
We could all stay at home on full pay and take no risks.
But we would all die of starvation after a few months.
The long-term social effects of Lockdown are more significant than the virus itself. I'm good at sitting in bed and drinking tea, some people are in absolute despair and have been for weeks.
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
more bollox
Do you think lockdown doesn't affect people's mental health? You are entitled to your opinion, even if it's wrong.
Double edged sword.
It helps those with anxiety disorders.
It doesn't help those with depression.
The concentration on the latter makes those with the former feel even more helpless, something which has been very much in evidence the last few weeks.
People who know little have been opining about mental health without having the slightest understanding or experience about it.
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The Germans can have Poland. As it were.
France has got pretty much everything, as countries go. There is a reason it’s the most visited nation on Earth.
Editor of the Londoner Diary, Evening Standard. Columnist. Broadcaster. Author. Stand up. After dinner speaker. Feminist. Former Labour adviser. Formerly busy.
I hope Labour is choosing better advisers now.
I thought she was on the comedy circuit now. Oh .....
Telling people not to use public transport is okay for a short time but it isn't something that can be sustained in the long-term or even medium-term IMO.
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The Germans can have Poland. As it were.
France has got pretty much everything, as countries go. There is a reason it’s the most visited nation on Earth.
There was a wartime proposal for true politician union between France and Britain. It would have been an amazing country. Greater than the sum of its parts and a mighty post war power
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
Awfully good of Nicola to cancel death for us.
even more bollox, pathetic ones at that.
On our previous discussion, it emerged that the PPE that Scottish care homes weren't able to buy was because it was from a Public Health England stockpile. Scotland has devolved healthcare for better or worse, and I think you'd have some pretty choice words if Scotland's PPE stocks were being depleted by English care homes.
It's quite alarming that you weren't aware of this. Probably because the filth rag splashed the original 'story' all over the front page and the clarification, if it ever came, was probably on page 22 next to the column written by the dog. Dangerous and toxic.
Natonaning all over the shop. Messy. Might need some PPE to deal with further posts from PB Yoons when it comes to The National.
Well of course. A 20-year-old unemployed former bartender with practically zero chance of dying of the disease, who's also desperate to earn money to pay the rent and have something resembling a normal social (and sex) life, is liable to have a different attitude to all of this to a 78-year-old with COPD, living in their own (mortgage-free) home off a fat pension, whose life presently revolves around the all-consuming terror of catching the wretched thing and who never leaves the house as a consequence.
The British public has been remarkably disciplined in sticking to tight lockdown regulations up until now, but anyone who thinks this unity of purpose can be maintained indefinitely is delusional.
Which is why those screaming for early lockdown were wrong imho. No doubt I am old person killer or some such. But my anecdata experience is the 65+ age group had made their own decisions in early March.
On the other hand Germany went into lockdown a couple of weeks before the UK (relative to the epidemic), the lockdown was always less strict, and started relaxing weeks ago. Which suggests maybe earlier action would have better for the UK.
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The Germans can have Poland. As it were.
France has got pretty much everything, as countries go. There is a reason it’s the most visited nation on Earth.
There was a wartime proposal for true politician union between France and Britain. It would have been an amazing country. Greater than the sum of its parts and a mighty post war power
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
Awfully good of Nicola to cancel death for us.
even more bollox, pathetic ones at that.
On our previous discussion, it emerged that the PPE that Scottish care homes weren't able to buy was because it was from a Public Health England stockpile. Scotland has devolved healthcare for better or worse, and I think you'd have some pretty choice words if Scotland's PPE stocks were being depleted by English care homes.
It's quite alarming that you weren't aware of this. Probably because the filth rag splashed the original 'story' all over the front page and the clarification, if it ever came, was probably on page 22 next to the column written by the dog. Dangerous and toxic.
Natonaning all over the shop. Messy. Might need some PPE to deal with further posts from PB Yoons when it comes to The National.
I've got money to invest. Which union is this still paying divis?
Well of course. A 20-year-old unemployed former bartender with practically zero chance of dying of the disease, who's also desperate to earn money to pay the rent and have something resembling a normal social (and sex) life, is liable to have a different attitude to all of this to a 78-year-old with COPD, living in their own (mortgage-free) home off a fat pension, whose life presently revolves around the all-consuming terror of catching the wretched thing and who never leaves the house as a consequence.
The British public has been remarkably disciplined in sticking to tight lockdown regulations up until now, but anyone who thinks this unity of purpose can be maintained indefinitely is delusional.
Which is why those screaming for early lockdown were wrong imho. No doubt I am old person killer or some such. But my anecdata experience is the 65+ age group had made their own decisions in early March.
On the other hand Germany went into lockdown a couple of weeks before the UK (relative to the epidemic), the lockdown was always less strict, and started relaxing weeks ago. Which suggests maybe earlier action would have better for the UK.
I believe the scientific view in the UK was that they were a couple of weeks behind Germany on the infection scale.
If so they were either wrong or the UK caught up very quickly.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
We could all stay at home on full pay and take no risks.
But we would all die of starvation after a few months.
The long-term social effects of Lockdown are more significant than the virus itself. I'm good at sitting in bed and drinking tea, some people are in absolute despair and have been for weeks.
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
more bollox
Do you think lockdown doesn't affect people's mental health? You are entitled to your opinion, even if it's wrong.
Double edged sword.
It helps those with anxiety disorders.
It doesn't help those with depression.
The concentration on the latter makes those with the former feel even more helpless, something which has been very much in evidence the last few weeks.
People who know little have been opining about mental health without having the slightest understanding or experience about it.
I think it's more complex than that. Not all lockdown environments are anxiety-free, anyone with OCD coping strategies is being told to ignore them, social workers are less accessible than before, as is psychiatry. And some people are developing new mh problems because of various complications, bereavement, domestic abuse, whatever.
Also, anxiety disorders that are good with lockdown still have to come outside, so long-term, they've got complications too.
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
Some suggest UK holidaymakers can go to France on way to their holiday destination and return from France
I expect that loophole will be closed
It's quite an easy loophole to close I would have thought. It would simply require the French authorities to provide details to the UK authorities of anyone arriving in France from another country using a British passport.
Are there border posts back on the French / Spanish border now?
To be clear - genuine question - not meant to be sarcasm
No but my point was mainly in response to those claiming there was a loophole in that people could just fly back to France from anywhere in the world then hop back into the UK without quarantine.
I drive across the Spanish-French border regularly and although there is no border check they could quite easily require cars with UK numberplate to pull over.
Very few systems are foolproof but it would not be too difficult to plug the major loopholes to prevent British travellers returning via France simply to avoid quarantine.
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The Germans can have Poland. As it were.
France has got pretty much everything, as countries go. There is a reason it’s the most visited nation on Earth.
There was a wartime proposal for true politician union between France and Britain. It would have been an amazing country. Greater than the sum of its parts and a mighty post war power
The mutual exceptionalisms might have cancelled each other out, or it might have resulted in one of the most insecurely self-regarding countries in the world (rather than just 2 of them).
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The Germans can have Poland. As it were.
France has got pretty much everything, as countries go. There is a reason it’s the most visited nation on Earth.
There was a wartime proposal for true politician union between France and Britain. It would have been an amazing country. Greater than the sum of its parts and a mighty post war power
The mutual exceptionalisms might have cancelled each other out, or it might have resulted in one of the most insecurely self-regarding countries in the world (rather than just 2 of them).
The mess the uk government have got into quarantining new arrivals is just head scratching, now this weird French loophole. It makes zero sense.
What's the loophole?
Some suggest UK holidaymakers can go to France on way to their holiday destination and return from France
I expect that loophole will be closed
It's quite an easy loophole to close I would have thought. It would simply require the French authorities to provide details to the UK authorities of anyone arriving in France from another country using a British passport.
Are there border posts back on the French / Spanish border now?
To be clear - genuine question - not meant to be sarcasm
No but my point was mainly in response to those claiming there was a loophole in that people could just fly back to France from anywhere in the world then hop back into the UK without quarantine.
I drive across the Spanish-French border regularly and although there is no border check they could quite easily require cars with UK numberplate to pull over.
Very few systems are foolproof but it would not be too difficult to plug the major loopholes to prevent British travellers returning via France simply to avoid quarantine.
Otherwise a great scheme to keep CDG open at the cost of Heathrow.
Given some of the vomit inducing fawning in the right wing press you’d think Bozo was going to single handedly free the whole nation from some fantasy occupation .
Harry Cole is a good source because he's pro-Tory, is that how this site works?
No, the data provided appear accurate. Although I did go rooting around for confirmation, and found the 2019 UK Government transport statistics, available for all to read at the following link:
At page 4 we find data on the usual method of travel to work, which gives the following breakdown:
Car: 68% Rail: 10% Walk: 10% Bus: 7% Other: 5%
There is also a helpful geographical breakdown by region, which shows that the total proportion of travel to work undertaken by car is 70% or greater in Scotland, Wales and all of the English regions *EXCEPT* London, where it is only 27%. Hence when we read the following:
we have a reasonable suspicion that the author lives within the M25.
Thus, socially distanced public transport is a really big headache for the cities. For most inhabitants of the countryside, small and medium-sized towns - and all those ex-commuters who suddenly find that they don't need to bother to travel to work anymore - matters are somewhat different.
Well of course. A 20-year-old unemployed former bartender with practically zero chance of dying of the disease, who's also desperate to earn money to pay the rent and have something resembling a normal social (and sex) life, is liable to have a different attitude to all of this to a 78-year-old with COPD, living in their own (mortgage-free) home off a fat pension, whose life presently revolves around the all-consuming terror of catching the wretched thing and who never leaves the house as a consequence.
The British public has been remarkably disciplined in sticking to tight lockdown regulations up until now, but anyone who thinks this unity of purpose can be maintained indefinitely is delusional.
Which is why those screaming for early lockdown were wrong imho. No doubt I am old person killer or some such. But my anecdata experience is the 65+ age group had made their own decisions in early March.
On the other hand Germany went into lockdown a couple of weeks before the UK (relative to the epidemic), the lockdown was always less strict, and started relaxing weeks ago. Which suggests maybe earlier action would have better for the UK.
I believe the scientific view in the UK was that they were a couple of weeks behind Germany on the infection scale.
If so they were either wrong or the UK caught up very quickly.
Was that the view of scientists? It wasn't the view of scientists here in Germany. The number of deaths along with lack of testing in the UK were very clear in indicating the UK was ahead of Germany.
EDIT: Something something people can't process complexity and uncertainty, but there will be suicides, and lockdown isn't black and white anyway.
We could all stay at home on full pay and take no risks.
But we would all die of starvation after a few months.
The long-term social effects of Lockdown are more significant than the virus itself. I'm good at sitting in bed and drinking tea, some people are in absolute despair and have been for weeks.
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
more bollox
Do you think lockdown doesn't affect people's mental health? You are entitled to your opinion, even if it's wrong.
Double edged sword.
It helps those with anxiety disorders.
It doesn't help those with depression.
The concentration on the latter makes those with the former feel even more helpless, something which has been very much in evidence the last few weeks.
People who know little have been opining about mental health without having the slightest understanding or experience about it.
I think it's more complex than that. Not all lockdown environments are anxiety-free, anyone with OCD coping strategies is being told to ignore them, social workers are less accessible than before, as is psychiatry. And some people are developing new mh problems because of various complications, bereavement, domestic abuse, whatever.
Also, anxiety disorders that are good with lockdown still have to come outside, so long-term, they've got complications too.
Well, I speak from experience here (which may or may not have been obvious). I have frequent anxiety issues, most of my life I've been able to turn it into positive actions and it's not really a problem. This is not one of those times. On and off for a few months now I have chest pains, big blood pressure spikes (going from my normal of low stage 1 right up through stage 2), bizarre sleep patterns and so on. There is a doctor at the end of the phone, there are helplines to talk through things. I imagine that not knowing about these things is a terrible place to be in. Tonight's performance set things off again. When anyone goes on about 'mental health' when they seem to be referring depression solely, it really doesn't help.
Are they still carrying on with that boycott of Newsnight, or whatever it was?
I think it's Piers that they're currently in a huff with/running scared of.
The way he was with the female health sec I'm not surprised they don't go on his show. He's posing as a serious political interviewer by interrupting, being rude and trolling, they should just tell him to fuck off
Well of course. A 20-year-old unemployed former bartender with practically zero chance of dying of the disease, who's also desperate to earn money to pay the rent and have something resembling a normal social (and sex) life, is liable to have a different attitude to all of this to a 78-year-old with COPD, living in their own (mortgage-free) home off a fat pension, whose life presently revolves around the all-consuming terror of catching the wretched thing and who never leaves the house as a consequence.
The British public has been remarkably disciplined in sticking to tight lockdown regulations up until now, but anyone who thinks this unity of purpose can be maintained indefinitely is delusional.
Which is why those screaming for early lockdown were wrong imho. No doubt I am old person killer or some such. But my anecdata experience is the 65+ age group had made their own decisions in early March.
On the other hand Germany went into lockdown a couple of weeks before the UK (relative to the epidemic), the lockdown was always less strict, and started relaxing weeks ago. Which suggests maybe earlier action would have better for the UK.
I believe the scientific view in the UK was that they were a couple of weeks behind Germany on the infection scale.
If so they were either wrong or the UK caught up very quickly.
Was that the view of scientists? It wasn't the view of scientists here in Germany. The number of deaths along with lack of testing in the UK were very clear in indicating the UK was ahead of Germany.
It was the view, since reconsidered, of the modellers.
And the rail journeys in particular will consist disproportionately of people moving around in London, and commuters transiting in and out of the capital and other urban cores.
Social distancing will make life substantially more difficult for people getting around within cities, but out in the suburbs and especially the countryside, where the vast bulk of journeys aren't made on public transport, we should be OK.
However bad the contraction in the economy and the expansion in unemployment turns out to be, the longer term socio-economic trend coming out of all this looks like it will be one of deep and lasting recession in the cities and a much faster recovery outside of them. We'll be able to get back to something resembling normality more rapidly outside the cities, most of the economic activity generated by the commuters will move here because of WFH and, when physical retail and hospitality do eventually stir back into life, a greater proportion of total expenditure will be made nearer to where all those well-off former commuters live.
The big cities could end up consisting predominantly of lots of empty and half-empty office blocks, shuttered bars and restaurants that have gone to the wall through lack of custom, and housing estates for the poor.
Or cities thrive as the old move out, freeing up property, making it easier for young people to move into more central parts of London, New York, Paris. Etc. Young people like big cities, and they wont be scared of a virus which barely affects them.
This could actually be a wonderful thing for cities, which were turning into Property banks for the elderly. Cities are made for the young, let the young return. And let the oldies disperse to Cornwall
Interesting take! Central London with cheaper rents, younger people and fewer empty properties is an extremely exciting prospect.
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The Germans can have Poland. As it were.
France has got pretty much everything, as countries go. There is a reason it’s the most visited nation on Earth.
There was a wartime proposal for true politician union between France and Britain. It would have been an amazing country. Greater than the sum of its parts and a mighty post war power
The mutual exceptionalisms might have cancelled each other out, or it might have resulted in one of the most insecurely self-regarding countries in the world (rather than just 2 of them).
Might have coordinated the Suez raid better...
Nasser might not have nationalised the canal in the first place.
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The Germans can have Poland. As it were.
France has got pretty much everything, as countries go. There is a reason it’s the most visited nation on Earth.
There was a wartime proposal for true politician union between France and Britain. It would have been an amazing country. Greater than the sum of its parts and a mighty post war power
The mutual exceptionalisms might have cancelled each other out, or it might have resulted in one of the most insecurely self-regarding countries in the world (rather than just 2 of them).
You are a happy, contended soul at peace with yourself, aren't you?
We've given the French an exemption from being forced to quarantine?
Did we lose a war or something?
If we are only allowed to go to one foreign country (without quarantine) for the next year, France is a rather excellent result, and we can drop Ireland instead.
The Germans can have Poland. As it were.
France has got pretty much everything, as countries go. There is a reason it’s the most visited nation on Earth.
There was a wartime proposal for true politician union between France and Britain. It would have been an amazing country. Greater than the sum of its parts and a mighty post war power
The mutual exceptionalisms might have cancelled each other out, or it might have resulted in one of the most insecurely self-regarding countries in the world (rather than just 2 of them).
I neither watched Boris on TV nor read what he said, but I think I get the message that we can do slightly more than we were allowed to yesterday. As a 45 year old man with my own mind I think I'll be ok
Comments
This is what I mean in my bungled message about complexity.
And from not reducing the lockdown.
Them's the facts. We are in the midst of a pandemic and everything we do will result in more death. It's what pandemics do.
Threading a route through is a little easier now we have an NHS that can take the strain. The Govt. has engineered that - although its monomania came with a terrible cost to care homes. But the working population should largely resume being that - a working population.
And of course how we keep up with the threads tomorrow with 50 pages of detail and the HOC debate in the afternoon will be interesting to witness
Anyway, from whichever side you are on I just want to say
Good night
Offer Number 10 a time machine.
They can go back to Wednesday morning, not make any excitable references to Sunday's speech at PMQs. Not have the excited headlines Thursday morning.
Do a routine review on Thursday; "numbers moving the right way, but still a way to go. 3 week's more lockdown, but we'll spend the next fortnight looking in detail at possible loosening for the beginning of June. Enjoy VE Day and remain indoors."
If Boris wanted to do a speech tonight, let him do it as a "well done, keep it up, curve going whoosh." Maybe announce the exercise things.
In that scenario-
1. Would the virus have been better controlled over the long weekend?
2. Would the government's standing have been better?
3. Weren't the disadvantages of the approach actually taken pretty obvious to those with eyes to see and ears to hear?
The self-employed have always been able to decide their approach.
I have not been out of the house since mid/late February and am managing rather well.
But the people doing the infecting would likely have been infecting other people if they had been someplace other than Cheltenham.
Pogo Stick?
Hop it?
Boat?
Scooter
Teleport
On the substance, the government seems to be trying to ease back from the over-successful initial messaging, towards a position where at some point people, or most of them, need to pivot from being too afraid to go out even under safe conditions. It is a tricky manoeuvre to make, so I would cut them some slack. All the same, 'Keep alert' is a jolly silly strapline - vacuous as Alastair says in the header piece. I thought D. Cummings was supposed to be a master of pithy, effective slogans?
Funicular
Death slide
Escalator
Social distancing will make life substantially more difficult for people getting around within cities, but out in the suburbs and especially the countryside, where the vast bulk of journeys aren't made on public transport, we should be OK.
However bad the contraction in the economy and the expansion in unemployment turns out to be, the longer term socio-economic trend coming out of all this looks like it will be one of deep and lasting recession in the cities and a much faster recovery outside of them. We'll be able to get back to something resembling normality more rapidly outside the cities, most of the economic activity generated by the commuters will move here because of WFH and, when physical retail and hospitality do eventually stir back into life, a greater proportion of total expenditure will be made nearer to where all those well-off former commuters live.
The big cities could end up consisting predominantly of lots of empty and half-empty office blocks, shuttered bars and restaurants that have gone to the wall through lack of custom, and housing estates for the poor.
It's quite alarming that you weren't aware of this. Probably because the filth rag splashed the original 'story' all over the front page and the clarification, if it ever came, was probably on page 22 next to the column written by the dog. Dangerous and toxic.
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1259546097720098823
Editor of the Londoner Diary, Evening Standard. Columnist. Broadcaster. Author. Stand up. After dinner speaker. Feminist. Former Labour adviser. Formerly busy.
I hope Labour is choosing better advisers now.
It helps those with anxiety disorders.
It doesn't help those with depression.
The concentration on the latter makes those with the former feel even more helpless, something which has been very much in evidence the last few weeks.
People who know little have been opining about mental health without having the slightest understanding or experience about it.
Boat
Scooter
Running
Roller skates
Tractor
JCB
Millennium Falcon?
X-wing?
Constitution-class starship?
And we are back to the Swedes being right.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/greeks-marvel-at-britains-covid-chaos-as-their-lockdown-lifts-after-150-deaths
Might need some PPE to deal with further posts from PB Yoons when it comes to The National.
Just in case, like...
If so they were either wrong or the UK caught up very quickly.
Also, anxiety disorders that are good with lockdown still have to come outside, so long-term, they've got complications too.
I drive across the Spanish-French border regularly and although there is no border check they could quite easily require cars with UK numberplate to pull over.
Very few systems are foolproof but it would not be too difficult to plug the major loopholes to prevent British travellers returning via France simply to avoid quarantine.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870647/tsgb-2019.pdf
At page 4 we find data on the usual method of travel to work, which gives the following breakdown:
Car: 68%
Rail: 10%
Walk: 10%
Bus: 7%
Other: 5%
There is also a helpful geographical breakdown by region, which shows that the total proportion of travel to work undertaken by car is 70% or greater in Scotland, Wales and all of the English regions *EXCEPT* London, where it is only 27%. Hence when we read the following: we have a reasonable suspicion that the author lives within the M25.
Thus, socially distanced public transport is a really big headache for the cities. For most inhabitants of the countryside, small and medium-sized towns - and all those ex-commuters who suddenly find that they don't need to bother to travel to work anymore - matters are somewhat different.
Brazil +467
Ecuador +410
Mexico +193
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
They’ll probably keep a lot more of the economy open until vaccines are available than we’ll manage. But not the nightclubs.