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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get well soon, Prime Minister
Thank you for all that you are doing. We cannot risk a second peak that would overwhelm the NHS, so let’s keep going. pic.twitter.com/z0uxlPFUI5
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Both Boris Johnson and the Time Lords have a Lord President of the Council.
There are whole sectors of the economy - retail; leisure; commercial real estate, for example - which will very likely not return in to their pre pandemic state for many years, if ever.
Relying entirely on the market to sort out the post pandemic mess risks leaving commercial wastelands across large areas of the country. Government ought to be thinking about its potential role in jump-starting things.
As a small example, we are going to have empty town centres, at the same time as having a nationwide housing shortage (an amped up version of what has been there to some extent for some time). That is an opportunity.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/greeks-marvel-at-britains-covid-chaos-as-their-lockdown-lifts-after-150-deaths
"Greeks are preparing beaches and hotels for a tourist season they hope will begin in July as restrictions gradually unwind."
Hmmm.
Someone who shook hands with people before telling us not to, was late to lockdown, responsible for tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths, caught the disease along with his closest allies in the fight against it, nearly died, looks like shit, and is forensically picked apart by Sir Keir at PMQs (to take his opponents view on all the aforementioned as legit)
Either the polls are nonsense, or the public always prefer charisma to nerdiness. The polls may well be nonsense, but in real elections...
When has the nerdier option won?
1997 Blair vs Major - Nerd lost
2001 Blair vs Hague - Nerd lost
2005 Blair vs Howard - Nerd lost
2010 Brown vs Cameron - Nerd lost
2015 Cameron vs Miliband - Nerd lost
2016 EU Ref Cameron & Osborne vs Boris & Farage - Nerds lost
2017 May vs Corbyn - Nerd won narrowly after polls gave unassailable lead
2019 Boris vs Corbyn - Nerd lost
2024 Boris vs Starmer...
Increasingly all week I've been seeing people on my street entertaining guests in lawn chairs two metres apart - and why on Earth not?
The new message is a polite way of saying "think for yourself and don't be an idiot".
If you want to take no risk stay at home. If you want to live your life minimise your risks. The public are already doing this with things like conga on a rope - the government is saying continue thinking for yourself and do what you can.
Quite right too. What is wrong with letting grown adults think for themselves?
Looking at another country, William Jennings Bryan was possibly the most charismatic candidate ever chosen by a major party. His (three) candidacies were, however, in the late 19th/early 20th centuries, so before the modern media age.
But vaccine is a pretty good typo/autocorrect collaboration.
David Spiegelhalter criticised the government's daily briefing, saying "seems to be co-ordinated really much more by a Number 10 communications team" rather than led by experts.
"I just wish the data was being brought together and presented by people who really knew its strengths and limitations and could treat the audience with some respect," he said.
Spiegelhalter wrote an article for the Guardian in April which has been quoted by government ministers when they argue against comparing Britain's high death rate to other nations.
But earlier this week he tweeted to ask ministers to stop citing his article.
He told the BBC's Andrew Marr: “What I was talking about was the comparisons between the bad countries in Europe such as UK, France Italy, Belgium - I was not saying we can’t make any comparisons at all.
“Clearly it is important to note that we as a group are way above Germany, Portugal, Norway, who have low mortality rates.
“What happened in this country was not inevitable," he said.
I would say Farage had more to do with Leave winning than Gove. The frontman for the wider public was Boris, and rabble rouser was Farage
Given that anyone under 60 with no serious health issues should be leading a pretty normal life at the moment and the government is being extremely cautious, lets hope the opposition forces get found out.
I should have been halted had a swab taken and been told to either stay home until my results or provided 2 nights at one of the many surrounding empty hotels while my test was being processed. If it was negative, go home, if not don't pass go.
Also for our WW2 buffs:
1945 Churchill vs Attlee - Nerd won.
Certainly charisma is quite marketable in politics, but so is competence...
A nonsense comparison. A takeaway which is infected is at fault. It is only temporarily shut down and can remedy the situation. A restaurant which cannot operate because of this virus is not at fault. It is closed because of a government decision. It should either be supported until it can. Or compensated so that those running and working in it can use the compensation to do something else that is legal and viable.
If you close whole sectors of the economy without some form of compensation, expect a major depression, social unrest and never again to win an election in your newly won seats.
Similarly, the idea that Covid-19 is just another risk which a business has to bear is also idiotic.
The reason why this risk should be paid for by the government - and not others - is because other risks, such as the risk of fire, can be insured against. This one can’t.
https://twitter.com/Iainmackay8/status/1259415094829727745?s=20
The problem is the nerds are members of political parties, so often choose the nerdier option to present to the public. I say Jess Phillips is the only celebrity type Labour have, and should have been leader vs Boris
2024 will be another "who is less unpopular" contest IMHO.
He fronted up more debates and media appearances than Farage, and was responsible for the more seminal moments of the campaign, the experts moment as a prime example.
Plus Osborne was front and centre for the 2010 and 2015 campaigns (Long term economic plan and all that jazz), so 2010 and 2015 can we chalked as a victory for the nerds.
Very probably, for example, locking down even a week earlier could have cut the number of cases by three quarters, which would have made the subsequent management considerably easier.
More accurate to say that the single biggest mistake was been cautiously reactive, rather than proactive. The Treasury apart, that seems still to be the case.
Up to a point, Lord Copper......there's a nonagenarian in Windsor who might take issue with that....
Approval in the Government is dropping slowly, from its peak a few weeks ago. I am quite confident it will be net negative soon.
Brown played Martin to Cameron's Paul, in Ever Decreasing Circles terms
Add to that the fact that he may not be at his best and it is not surprising that we are not well governed and that we are being briefed on a speech on a Sunday evening rather than a proper announcement to Parliament.
Of course he should get better properly. Whether a fit Boris would be any more effective than now, God knows. I don’t get the impression that anyone in government really knows what they are doing or is prepared to be honest with us.
Although having said that, 97 seats turnover is impressive.
We pay for it. In all manner of ways.
NHS England. 884 peak deaths 8/4 now look to be around 240.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1259477893828227072/photo/1
Politically Johnson is/was more liberal but then he seems to change his spots on a whim, so who knows.
Nicola expects difference to the advice post Boris speech tonight will be minor
Boris has to look to the advice and as far as I am concerned stay alert is sensible and I am not sure that the conflicting advice will be that helpful to the first ministers as many seem to think
It will of course be best to align the processes but Nicola does not want stay alert advertising in Scotland. There are real dangers here for Nicola to be painting Scotland's present position to be poor and of course the NHS in Scotland is her responsibility
My view on Johnson is that if the economy is doing well and in general the Government is reasonably well perceived, he will win again (probably with a reduced majority but still, he will win).
If that is not the case, the public will - I hope, to me it seems logical - choose what is hopefully a credible alternative.
One thing is for sure, 13 years in power starts to take a toll on any party. Johnson got away with being fresh and new in 2019 (and did a very good job on distancing himself from the previous 9 years) but that will not be the case in 2024.
Also, do we all remember that made up Obama sizzle/steak story from 2009? Do we?
Let's all have a chuckle now.
And here - https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/05/06/the-pandemic-costs-who-bears-the-risk/.
An interesting thread as always from Antifrank (as he was). I'm not surprised the pro-Government lobby on here isn't keen to talk about the split in the Government and the Conservative Parliamentary Party.
The "as you were" group around Johnson and Hancock are clearly in charge currently but there is a growing "open up" faction led by Sunak and some other Ministers with support from the backbenches that is terrified of the economic and political impact of covid-19 and sees getting the economy re-started as the priority because they see a political price to be paid for the economic legacy especially if growth doesn't rebound as the BoE forecasts (or hopes).
It goes further and cuts to the core of conservatism - is it about the State taking responsibility for public health and accepting the restriction of individual freedom for the good of society as a whole or is it about individuals having personal responsibility for their own heath and in theory that of others and trusting them to act in a proper and responsible manner?
It implies the need for some massive policy and economic shifts.
Popularity, rather like the weather, can change very quickly.
The irony for the government is this low figure is what will be used to compare how well or badly the changes in the lockdown have had.
Our great great great great great grandkids.
I did say support was justifiable - just that I had problems accepting that it should be justified narrowly on the government's alleged liability for stopping businesses from operating in an unsafe manner.
And as for insurance, we have the tennis at Wimbledon as an example of pandemic insurance. Though I am sure most businesses are in the position of a shop in the lower parts of York or Bridgnorth whose flood insyrance premiums have gone through the roof.
Nicola doesn't have to explain her position other than acknowledging she has erred on the side of caution. She may well be wrong and Boris may well be right. When the post Covid political post mortems are in Nicola can say she was wrong, the already shot economy might take a little longer to recover but she felt the risk was worth it if it saved lives. If the opposite turns out to be true Boris will have rather a lot of fatalities to justify.
Still consistent with daily drop of 4.5% to 5.0% - if that continues it'll fall 3x by 1/June. Maybe the rate of decline will slow as the lockdown frays at the edges, but there's been almost no sign of that so far (beyond anecdata).
Doesn't include care homes of course, which will presumably make up a larger and larger % of daily deaths from now on. Hopefully the large drop in infections outside will help bring them under control too.
However, Nicola is admitting Scotland is de facto in a worse position than England
y = 941.37e-0.051x
R² = 0.9829
Hancock just seems awful
I look forward to those arguing that "England should have learned from Italy, it had a 2 - 3 week head start" advancing the same argument for Scotland vis a vis England.