I would guess we're looking at Lingfield, Newcastle and Wolverhampton as the resumption venues - all three owned by ARC and all have on-site hotels.
I'm far from convinced racing will be back as early as the 18th - the tone today suggests Johnson's speech will be long on generalities ("patriotic duty", "winning the battle", "keeping strong and resolute") and short on specifics. I can't see betting shops re-opening any time soon.
The good news for me is I spoke to the owner of my favourite greasy spoon in the Barking Road and he tells me he'll definitely be back and if he is so will I. It's not the food - it's just the joy of reading the paper and having a quiet 45 minutes watching the world come in and out.
Dido Harding. Really?! Let's put the woman who oversaw the worst data breach in the UK's history and subsequent cover up in charge of sensitive medical and location data for the whole UK population.
Wtf kind of decision making process is this, this is literally old farts looking out for each other. We actually do need a crack team or under 40s with extensive app experience leading this charge, instead we've got an old woman who has probably never written a line of code let alone an app and a public sector tech team.
This is going to cost the country 3-4 weeks of additional lockdown.
If Biden had even 1% worth of input into that then it would be huge news. His campaign team will be effective, but he is going to be a terrible POTUS. He only looks acceptable because of who does it now.
The Soviet Union did fine with a trio of leaders in the late 1980s who were either dead, dying or demented.
If Biden had even 1% worth of input into that then it would be huge news. His campaign team will be effective, but he is going to be a terrible POTUS. He only looks acceptable because of who does it now.
The Soviet Union did fine with a trio of leaders in the late 1980s who were either dead, dying or demented.
Only because they dissolved it. Not sure that's what the US is going for.
Fair play to them, NHSX have published the source code to their contact tracing app. Hundreds of developers and tech journos on Twitter currently going mad setting up environments to start their own testing...
Dido Harding. Really?! Let's put the woman who oversaw the worst data breach in the UK's history and subsequent cover up in charge of sensitive medical and location data for the whole UK population.
Wtf kind of decision making process is this, this is literally old farts looking out for each other. We actually do need a crack team or under 40s with extensive app experience leading this charge, instead we've got an old woman who has probably never written a line of code let alone an app and a public sector tech team.
This is going to cost the country 3-4 weeks of additional lockdown.
Dido Harding. Really?! Let's put the woman who oversaw the worst data breach in the UK's history and subsequent cover up in charge of sensitive medical and location data for the whole UK population.
Wtf kind of decision making process is this, this is literally old farts looking out for each other. We actually do need a crack team or under 40s with extensive app experience leading this charge, instead we've got an old woman who has probably never written a line of code let alone an app and a public sector tech team.
This is going to cost the country 3-4 weeks of additional lockdown.
Fair play to them, NHSX have published the source code to their contact tracing app. Hundreds of developers and tech journos on Twitter currently going mad setting up environments to start their own testing...
Hopefully it is better code than the Ferguson model....even after microsoft clean up, it was vomit inducing when i had a look last night.
Fair play to them, NHSX have published the source code to their contact tracing app. Hundreds of developers and tech journos on Twitter currently going mad setting up environments to start their own testing...
If Biden had even 1% worth of input into that then it would be huge news. His campaign team will be effective, but he is going to be a terrible POTUS. He only looks acceptable because of who does it now.
The Soviet Union did fine with a trio of leaders in the late 1980s who were either dead, dying or demented.
Only because they dissolved it. Not sure that's what the US is going for.
I was aiming for humour. I don't think anyone (well hardly anyone) would suggest the Soviet Union did fine
Fair play to them, NHSX have published the source code to their contact tracing app. Hundreds of developers and tech journos on Twitter currently going mad setting up environments to start their own testing...
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
Didn't Merkel say 1.3 would see their health system overwhelmed in June, if it was 1.1 it would take until October.
While I don't share @Black_Rook's pessimism, I'm also concerned we have no real idea how many people have or have had covid-19. The ratio of unreported to reported cases remains a mystery and presumably will continue so to be until or unless we have more available antibody testing.
It may well be a lot of people have had only mild symptoms or are asymptomatic but the worry must be the vast majority have avoided infection thus far and would therefore be vulnerable once movement is less restricted.
As someone in a "risk" category I'm not going to be impressed by Johnson's overblown rhetoric telling me it's my "patriotic duty" to return to work. I'll leave London's mobile germ warfare laboratory to others..
Fair play to them, NHSX have published the source code to their contact tracing app. Hundreds of developers and tech journos on Twitter currently going mad setting up environments to start their own testing...
It says IOW only...what happens if you install it and try and use it?
It seems from initial reviews that the Apple issue is very real, two iPhones both in standby that pass each other will not trigger a contact. Android OS works differently, and appears to be good. An Android phone passing an iPhone will "wake" it up, so as long as there's a few Androids in a room full of iPhones then in theory the whole ecosystem works.
Other major issue is Android compatibility. v8.0 was released in 2017, but a lot of older phones and more recent low-end phones don't run v8 and can't be upgraded to it.
Seems like a massive fudge to me, so they can get the backend database rather than use the decentralised version from the phone o/s vendors.
We should know a lot more in the morning, once the geeks have been up for 30 hours straight mainlining coffee intravenously.
If Biden had even 1% worth of input into that then it would be huge news. His campaign team will be effective, but he is going to be a terrible POTUS. He only looks acceptable because of who does it now.
The Soviet Union did fine with a trio of leaders in the late 1980s who were either dead, dying or demented.
Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko were early 80s.
Unless you’re referring to Yanaev, but he caused the USSR to collapse.
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
Didn't Merkel say 1.3 would see their health system overwhelmed in June, if it was 1.1 it would take until October.
From memory.
That depends on the number of infected people you start with.
So if the number of infected people in the UK is currently 100,000 and R is 2 and people have the disease for two weeks. Then the number of cases will go 100,000 to 400,000 to 1.6m to 6.0m in three months.
On the other hand, if there are only 2,000 people with the disease and R is 1.5, then you go 2,250, 5,000, 10,000.
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
Didn't Merkel say 1.3 would see their health system overwhelmed in June, if it was 1.1 it would take until October.
From memory.
The Scottish Government discussion document has a chart showing the different Rs and the various outcomes for the health service.
Fair play to them, NHSX have published the source code to their contact tracing app. Hundreds of developers and tech journos on Twitter currently going mad setting up environments to start their own testing...
It says IOW only...what happens if you install it and try and use it?
It seems from initial reviews that the Apple issue is very real, two iPhones both in standby that pass each other will not trigger a contact. Android OS works differently, and appears to be good. An Android phone passing an iPhone will "wake" it up, so as long as there's a few Androids in a room full of iPhones then in theory the whole ecosystem works.
Other major issue is Android compatibility. v8.0 was released in 2017, but a lot of older phones and more recent low-end phones don't run v8 and can't be upgraded to it.
Seems like a massive fudge to me, so they can get the backend database rather than use the decentralised version from the phone o/s vendors.
We should know a lot more in the morning, once the geeks have been up for 30 hours straight mainlining coffee intravenously.
So it's in the national interest that we all get Androids? TSE won't be happy.
Fair play to them, NHSX have published the source code to their contact tracing app. Hundreds of developers and tech journos on Twitter currently going mad setting up environments to start their own testing...
It says IOW only...what happens if you install it and try and use it?
It seems from initial reviews that the Apple issue is very real, two iPhones both in standby that pass each other will not trigger a contact. Android OS works differently, and appears to be good. An Android phone passing an iPhone will "wake" it up, so as long as there's a few Androids in a room full of iPhones then in theory the whole ecosystem works.
Other major issue is Android compatibility. v8.0 was released in 2017, but a lot of older phones and more recent low-end phones don't run v8 and can't be upgraded to it.
Seems like a massive fudge to me, so they can get the backend database rather than use the decentralised version from the phone o/s vendors.
We should know a lot more in the morning, once the geeks have been up for 30 hours straight mainlining coffee intravenously.
So it's in the national interest that we all get Androids? TSE won't be happy.
Or that some ethnic groups are likelier to live in cities. And perhaps it's the living in cities that's the problem.
I believe they controlled for location.
Fair enough.
Did they also control for age and weight and co-morbidities?
Raw data it was 4x as likely when just controlling for age, then they controlled for location, comobidities and i believe for income (or a proxy of)...and still was 2x white people.
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
Didn't Merkel say 1.3 would see their health system overwhelmed in June, if it was 1.1 it would take until October.
From memory.
That depends on the number of infected people you start with.
So if the number of infected people in the UK is currently 100,000 and R is 2 and people have the disease for two weeks. Then the number of cases will go 100,000 to 400,000 to 1.6m to 6.0m in three months.
On the other hand, if there are only 2,000 people with the disease and R is 1.5, then you go 2,250, 5,000, 10,000.
In the former case, utter disaster.
In the latter case, perfectly manageable.
How many positive tests have been reported over the last 14 days?
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
Didn't Merkel say 1.3 would see their health system overwhelmed in June, if it was 1.1 it would take until October.
From memory.
That depends on the number of infected people you start with.
So if the number of infected people in the UK is currently 100,000 and R is 2 and people have the disease for two weeks. Then the number of cases will go 100,000 to 400,000 to 1.6m to 6.0m in three months.
On the other hand, if there are only 2,000 people with the disease and R is 1.5, then you go 2,250, 5,000, 10,000.
In the former case, utter disaster.
In the latter case, perfectly manageable.
How many positive tests have been reported over the last 14 days?
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
Didn't Merkel say 1.3 would see their health system overwhelmed in June, if it was 1.1 it would take until October.
From memory.
That depends on the number of infected people you start with.
So if the number of infected people in the UK is currently 100,000 and R is 2 and people have the disease for two weeks. Then the number of cases will go 100,000 to 400,000 to 1.6m to 6.0m in three months.
On the other hand, if there are only 2,000 people with the disease and R is 1.5, then you go 2,250, 5,000, 10,000.
In the former case, utter disaster.
In the latter case, perfectly manageable.
How many positive tests have been reported over the last 14 days?
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
Didn't Merkel say 1.3 would see their health system overwhelmed in June, if it was 1.1 it would take until October.
From memory.
That depends on the number of infected people you start with.
So if the number of infected people in the UK is currently 100,000 and R is 2 and people have the disease for two weeks. Then the number of cases will go 100,000 to 400,000 to 1.6m to 6.0m in three months.
On the other hand, if there are only 2,000 people with the disease and R is 1.5, then you go 2,250, 5,000, 10,000.
In the former case, utter disaster.
In the latter case, perfectly manageable.
How many positive tests have been reported over the last 14 days?
20k / day at the moment
Reported? On average around 5k.
Which takes you much closer to 100k than 2k. On top of that, all the undetected ones, of course.
Two world wars and one World Cup and one Coronavirus.
But I’m sure the pb commentariat will be along shortly to explain why this constant harking back for stolen valour is helpful in 2020.
Yes, there will be a lot more "Two World Wars and One World Cup" being sung tomorrow than if it were a advertised as a celebration of the war ending rather than a celebration of "victory". A point I tried to make last night without much success in persuading anyone!
If we wanted to celebrate the war ending, we should have installed Lord Halifax, then Foreign Secretary, as Prime Minister in 1940 to negotiate an armistice. Victory over Nazism, five long years later, matters. And btw, VE Day is a public holiday in France every year, unlike here, and they've won two World Cups.
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
I'd be guessing, but an R not very much above 1.0 will, presumably, be enough to trigger an explosive growth in cases given how many there still are in the community, and how ineffectual the measures to contain disease hotspots in hospitals and care homes are likely to prove. Certainly the total number of active cases isn't going to reduce to a very low level within any reasonable sort of a timeframe - we know from the briefings that thousands are still being confirmed every day, and the majority of the mild cases and almost all of the asymptomatic ones will never be identified by testing.
The easing of lockdown will be forced by economic necessity, frustration and desperation, it will inevitably be badly handled, and the massacre that we've been trying to avoid all along will come to pass.
Two world wars and one World Cup and one Coronavirus.
But I’m sure the pb commentariat will be along shortly to explain why this constant harking back for stolen valour is helpful in 2020.
Yes, there will be a lot more "Two World Wars and One World Cup" being sung tomorrow than if it were a advertised as a celebration of the war ending rather than a celebration of "victory". A point I tried to make last night without much success in persuading anyone!
If we wanted to celebrate the war ending, we should have installed Lord Halifax, then Foreign Secretary, as Prime Minister in 1940 to negotiate an armistice. Victory over Nazism, five long years later, matters. And btw, VE Day is a public holiday in France every year, unlike here, and they've won two World Cups.
Well said. We should always remember victory over the Nazis, what it took to get there and how close to darkness the world came.
If Biden had even 1% worth of input into that then it would be huge news. His campaign team will be effective, but he is going to be a terrible POTUS. He only looks acceptable because of who does it now.
The Soviet Union did fine with a trio of leaders in the late 1980s who were either dead, dying or demented.
20,000 a day still getting according to SAGE member...pretty sobering.
Far far far too high for track and trace to work effectively.
If that’s the case at peak hundreds of thousands would have been getting infected daily
They were. Two thousand deaths a day at peak at 1% fatality rate equates to 200,000 infections per day.
Before we locked down.
So millions must of had it then
Probably low single figures of millions.
5 days at the peak is 1m, but was doubling every 3 days or so to get to that number.
Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
I'd be guessing, but an R not very much above 1.0 will, presumably, be enough to trigger an explosive growth in cases given how many there still are in the community, and how ineffectual the measures to contain disease hotspots in hospitals and care homes are likely to prove. Certainly the total number of active cases isn't going to reduce to a very low level within any reasonable sort of a timeframe - we know from the briefings that thousands are still being confirmed every day, and the majority of the mild cases and almost all of the asymptomatic ones will never be identified by testing.
The easing of lockdown will be forced by economic necessity, frustration and desperation, it will inevitably be badly handled, and the massacre that we've been trying to avoid all along will come to pass.
I don't share your concerns.
Firstly, look at Sweden. Yes, they have a higher death rate than us. But it's far from off the charts, and the numbers are coming down.
Secondly, small changes in R make a massive difference. An R of 3 and a 10 day infectious period means you increase your caseload 27 times in a month. An R of 1.5 - which is probably three times the current level - and you're only talking about a tripling in a month.
There are lots of things we can do - short of total lockdown - that result in Rs well below the February / early March levels. Simply wearing masks in shops and on public transport and washing hands make a massive difference.
20,000 a day still getting according to SAGE member...pretty sobering.
Far far far too high for track and trace to work effectively.
And that is what the expert was saying.
There were endless debates about whether the 8th or the 11th of April was the 'true peak' of deaths occuring, and how valid the testing numbers were.
How about discussing the tracing aspect for a change? How many people have to work for how many days to do proper tracing of one case? For hospital and care home cases not that many, for community transmissions many, many more. But how many exactly?
Or that some ethnic groups are likelier to live in cities. And perhaps it's the living in cities that's the problem.
Or it’s the refusal of BAMEs to listen to the advice and social distance
Now that will definitely get cancelled on twitter...and zero.chance CH4 news would investigate any such possibility.
There's three possibilities:
1. Genetic 2. Environmental 3. Behavioural
Any study that doesn't account for all three is not sufficiently rigorous. The most likely answer involves a combination of all of the above.
The trouble with genetic explanations are the different ethnic groups involved. We need to explain why Black and the Asian groups are higher than Whites (and also why the differences between the Asian groups). If it were just Blacks higher than everyone else, or Whites lower than everyone else, then genetics might be a better starting point, but it isn't that simple so genetic explanations would rapidly become convoluted.
Environmental, maybe. The study accounted for regional differences but perhaps not finely enough to distinguish clusters in, say, South East or North West London.
Behavioural, perhaps. Religious services, whether Christian for the Black victims or Muslim for Pakistani and Bangladeshis, though this can only be inferred from ethnicity as there is no direct data in the study.
The report itself raises the possibility that BAME victims are more likely to have public-facing jobs like minicab drivers. Again, more research is needed.
Fair play to them, NHSX have published the source code to their contact tracing app. Hundreds of developers and tech journos on Twitter currently going mad setting up environments to start their own testing...
It says IOW only...what happens if you install it and try and use it?
It seems from initial reviews that the Apple issue is very real, two iPhones both in standby that pass each other will not trigger a contact. Android OS works differently, and appears to be good. An Android phone passing an iPhone will "wake" it up, so as long as there's a few Androids in a room full of iPhones then in theory the whole ecosystem works.
Other major issue is Android compatibility. v8.0 was released in 2017, but a lot of older phones and more recent low-end phones don't run v8 and can't be upgraded to it.
Seems like a massive fudge to me, so they can get the backend database rather than use the decentralised version from the phone o/s vendors.
We should know a lot more in the morning, once the geeks have been up for 30 hours straight mainlining coffee intravenously.
So it's in the national interest that we all get Androids? TSE won't be happy.
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
I'd be guessing, but an R not very much above 1.0 will, presumably, be enough to trigger an explosive growth in cases given how many there still are in the community, and how ineffectual the measures to contain disease hotspots in hospitals and care homes are likely to prove. Certainly the total number of active cases isn't going to reduce to a very low level within any reasonable sort of a timeframe - we know from the briefings that thousands are still being confirmed every day, and the majority of the mild cases and almost all of the asymptomatic ones will never be identified by testing.
The easing of lockdown will be forced by economic necessity, frustration and desperation, it will inevitably be badly handled, and the massacre that we've been trying to avoid all along will come to pass.
I don't share your concerns.
Firstly, look at Sweden. Yes, they have a higher death rate than us. But it's far from off the charts, and the numbers are coming down.
Secondly, small changes in R make a massive difference. An R of 3 and a 10 day infectious period means you increase your caseload 27 times in a month. An R of 1.5 - which is probably three times the current level - and you're only talking about a tripling in a month.
There are lots of things we can do - short of total lockdown - that result in Rs well below the February / early March levels. Simply wearing masks in shops and on public transport and washing hands make a massive difference.
Sweden's fatality rate isn't higher than the UK's. And do you really believe that the R0 is 0.5 currently in the UK?
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
I'd be guessing, but an R not very much above 1.0 will, presumably, be enough to trigger an explosive growth in cases given how many there still are in the community, and how ineffectual the measures to contain disease hotspots in hospitals and care homes are likely to prove. Certainly the total number of active cases isn't going to reduce to a very low level within any reasonable sort of a timeframe - we know from the briefings that thousands are still being confirmed every day, and the majority of the mild cases and almost all of the asymptomatic ones will never be identified by testing.
The easing of lockdown will be forced by economic necessity, frustration and desperation, it will inevitably be badly handled, and the massacre that we've been trying to avoid all along will come to pass.
I don't share your concerns.
Firstly, look at Sweden. Yes, they have a higher death rate than us. But it's far from off the charts, and the numbers are coming down.
Secondly, small changes in R make a massive difference. An R of 3 and a 10 day infectious period means you increase your caseload 27 times in a month. An R of 1.5 - which is probably three times the current level - and you're only talking about a tripling in a month.
There are lots of things we can do - short of total lockdown - that result in Rs well below the February / early March levels. Simply wearing masks in shops and on public transport and washing hands make a massive difference.
If Biden had even 1% worth of input into that then it would be huge news. His campaign team will be effective, but he is going to be a terrible POTUS. He only looks acceptable because of who does it now.
The Soviet Union did fine with a trio of leaders in the late 1980s who were either dead, dying or demented.
interesting to see people opinions of R and how it will/might rise if Lock-down is ended.
However I think it misses one thing.
If R increases in the young and healthy population only a preposition of which will get ill then there is little risk of the heath system getting overwhelmed.
If it also speeds to the older generation by which I mean 80+ then its much harder.
so the simple solution would be do everything possible to sheald the old (and ill) and then reopen the nation.
It is very simple, R must be kept below 1 for population as a whole to avoid disaster and it is morally imperative to get it below 1 for any sub-populations like care home residents. If relaxation of restrictions results in R above 1 growth is exponential till point where it is choked off by increasing immunity of population. The care home situation is particularly challenging because people move in from larger population over time so infection control needs to be addressed.
Comments
The BHA has this evening provided details of a possible resumption for horse racing:
https://www.racingpost.com/news/coronavirus/handicaps-dominate-as-schedule-for-first-week-of-resumption-is-made-public/433356
I would guess we're looking at Lingfield, Newcastle and Wolverhampton as the resumption venues - all three owned by ARC and all have on-site hotels.
I'm far from convinced racing will be back as early as the 18th - the tone today suggests Johnson's speech will be long on generalities ("patriotic duty", "winning the battle", "keeping strong and resolute") and short on specifics. I can't see betting shops re-opening any time soon.
The good news for me is I spoke to the owner of my favourite greasy spoon in the Barking Road and he tells me he'll definitely be back and if he is so will I. It's not the food - it's just the joy of reading the paper and having a quiet 45 minutes watching the world come in and out.
Wtf kind of decision making process is this, this is literally old farts looking out for each other. We actually do need a crack team or under 40s with extensive app experience leading this charge, instead we've got an old woman who has probably never written a line of code let alone an app and a public sector tech team.
This is going to cost the country 3-4 weeks of additional lockdown.
https://youtu.be/MRTjXRSBu6w
It says IOW only...what happens if you install it and try and use it?
What is a huge spike in R? Is it to 1.5? Is it to 2.5? Is it to 4.0?
If modest social distancing keeps R to 1.5, which I don't think is an unreasonable expectation, then we will see infected numbers growing relatively slowly off a small base.
That seems like a win to me.
From memory.
It may well be a lot of people have had only mild symptoms or are asymptomatic but the worry must be the vast majority have avoided infection thus far and would therefore be vulnerable once movement is less restricted.
As someone in a "risk" category I'm not going to be impressed by Johnson's overblown rhetoric telling me it's my "patriotic duty" to return to work. I'll leave London's mobile germ warfare laboratory to others..
Other major issue is Android compatibility. v8.0 was released in 2017, but a lot of older phones and more recent low-end phones don't run v8 and can't be upgraded to it.
Seems like a massive fudge to me, so they can get the backend database rather than use the decentralised version from the phone o/s vendors.
We should know a lot more in the morning, once the geeks have been up for 30 hours straight mainlining coffee intravenously.
Unless you’re referring to Yanaev, but he caused the USSR to collapse.
So if the number of infected people in the UK is currently 100,000 and R is 2 and people have the disease for two weeks. Then the number of cases will go 100,000 to 400,000 to 1.6m to 6.0m in three months.
On the other hand, if there are only 2,000 people with the disease and R is 1.5, then you go 2,250, 5,000, 10,000.
In the former case, utter disaster.
In the latter case, perfectly manageable.
Did they also control for age and weight and co-morbidities?
1. Genetic
2. Environmental
3. Behavioural
Any study that doesn't account for all three is not sufficiently rigorous. The most likely answer involves a combination of all of the above.
https://twitter.com/nickstripe_ons/status/1258420485320302593?s=21
Before we locked down.
The easing of lockdown will be forced by economic necessity, frustration and desperation, it will inevitably be badly handled, and the massacre that we've been trying to avoid all along will come to pass.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/07/outsourcing-coronavirus-crisis-business-failed-nhs-staff
5 days at the peak is 1m, but was doubling every 3 days or so to get to that number.
Firstly, look at Sweden. Yes, they have a higher death rate than us. But it's far from off the charts, and the numbers are coming down.
Secondly, small changes in R make a massive difference. An R of 3 and a 10 day infectious period means you increase your caseload 27 times in a month. An R of 1.5 - which is probably three times the current level - and you're only talking about a tripling in a month.
There are lots of things we can do - short of total lockdown - that result in Rs well below the February / early March levels. Simply wearing masks in shops and on public transport and washing hands make a massive difference.
How about discussing the tracing aspect for a change? How many people have to work for how many days to do proper tracing of one case?
For hospital and care home cases not that many, for community transmissions many, many more. But how many exactly?
Environmental, maybe. The study accounted for regional differences but perhaps not finely enough to distinguish clusters in, say, South East or North West London.
Behavioural, perhaps. Religious services, whether Christian for the Black victims or Muslim for Pakistani and Bangladeshis, though this can only be inferred from ethnicity as there is no direct data in the study.
The report itself raises the possibility that BAME victims are more likely to have public-facing jobs like minicab drivers. Again, more research is needed.
NEW THREAD
And do you really believe that the R0 is 0.5 currently in the UK?
However I think it misses one thing.
If R increases in the young and healthy population only a preposition of which will get ill then there is little risk of the heath system getting overwhelmed.
If it also speeds to the older generation by which I mean 80+ then its much harder.
so the simple solution would be do everything possible to sheald the old (and ill) and then reopen the nation.