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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

    Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

    Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

    Starmer really does have to play the long game here. The case is that the government is not up to the job that fate has asked it to do - both during the crisis and its aftermath. We are at the very start of the argument and he has not started badly. Right now, though, most people (quite rightly) support the lockdown and the the financial aid the government has come up with. Starmer and the Labour party do as well (quite rightly). This is about years, not weeks or months.
    The latest poll had both Labour and the Govt falling though

    MoE

    When will we be 20% ahead as forecast please?

    Who forecast that?

    The damage done to Labour's standing over the last few years has been immense. It's going to take years to mend. At least we now have a leader who may be able to go some way to doing it. You can see that in his personal ratings.
    What is the accepted amount of ‘don’t knows’ needed to make leader ratings questionable?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Politically, it would be a very strong argument in favour of Unionism if this happened.
    That's some fancy ransom note, right there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    isam said:

    We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

    Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

    Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

    Starmer really does have to play the long game here. The case is that the government is not up to the job that fate has asked it to do - both during the crisis and its aftermath. We are at the very start of the argument and he has not started badly. Right now, though, most people (quite rightly) support the lockdown and the the financial aid the government has come up with. Starmer and the Labour party do as well (quite rightly). This is about years, not weeks or months.
    The latest poll had both Labour and the Govt falling though

    MoE

    When will we be 20% ahead as forecast please?

    Who forecast that?

    The damage done to Labour's standing over the last few years has been immense. It's going to take years to mend. At least we now have a leader who may be able to go some way to doing it. You can see that in his personal ratings.
    But in early 2019 Labour was ahead!
    Yes, people do not give Johnson enough credit. The ghastly guy pulled off an utter triumph, electorally, and he has genuine appeal to lots of people. I think it's because the host of this site, plus many of the more prolific and influential participants, have a very dim view of both him AND Corbyn - thus the preferred narrative is that Johnson is crap but won a landslide because Corbyn was twice as crap. This doesn't ring true to me. It was many things, clearly, but what it mainly was was "Boris" and his all conquering message, Get Brexit Done, which played well to both Leavers and the large number of Remainers who nevertheless were sick and tired of "it" and wanted "it" done.
    Boris's greatest strength as a politician is the dogged determination that his opponents apply to underestimating him.
    Indeed so, and something that's even more true of his top advisor.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    The government can for now maintain one of the greatest and cruelest deceptions ever perpetrated by any UK government on the people of Britain - that lockdown is a consequence free policy.

    That we have time and money to go on and on until the virus is 'beaten' (whatever beaten looks like).

    Headlines like a 14% contraction in the UK economy, greatest recession in 300 years are meaningless to the millions on furlough who think they are going to walk back into jobs. Or those in the public sector that think they can never be culled

    Economic meltdown? dramatic fall in living standards?

    yeh whatever

    The fact is that many of these people are long term redundant, they just don;t know it yet.

    When Rishi turns off the taps, as he must one day, well...

    What was the viable alternative?
    The Swedish approach.
    The Swedish approach still includes the things he's objecting to like a government backed furlough and an economic meltdown.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    So we want to be different to prove that we can be but we need someone else to pay for it? Riiiight.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    "Britain's Covid-19 lockdown was futile, says Swedish epidemiologist

    Johan Giesecke, who helped shape Sweden's approach to coronavirus, says lockdown does not protect vulnerable in care homes"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/britains-lockdown-futile-says-swedish-epidemiologist/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2020
    Preferred Prime Minister Polling


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    I'll accept that. It's just that their best..........
    But can you imagine if it had been Corbyn, Abbott and people like that running it?!

    :anguished:
    If you recall the coup attempt of last September, the elected by a massive majority deputy leader was to be stripped of powers which were to be handed to the NEC. So lets assume that Labour won the 2019 election and Corbyn like Johnson contracted the virus doing one of his LOOK AT ME cretin clapping shows in the street. Corbyn is in ICU, leaving a designated stand-in (Pidcock) as the spokesperson for an NEC committee made up of Corbyn apparatchiks.

    Its hard to consider a worst bunch of people than the cabinet to be (badly) running the country during this pandemic. Then you remember the alternative on offer last December. Which is why the answer to the GE question was "neither".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Floater said:

    isam said:

    We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

    Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

    Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

    Starmer really does have to play the long game here. The case is that the government is not up to the job that fate has asked it to do - both during the crisis and its aftermath. We are at the very start of the argument and he has not started badly. Right now, though, most people (quite rightly) support the lockdown and the the financial aid the government has come up with. Starmer and the Labour party do as well (quite rightly). This is about years, not weeks or months.
    The latest poll had both Labour and the Govt falling though

    MoE

    When will we be 20% ahead as forecast please?

    Who forecast that?

    The damage done to Labour's standing over the last few years has been immense. It's going to take years to mend. At least we now have a leader who may be able to go some way to doing it. You can see that in his personal ratings.
    He has a hell of a challenge though

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/07/labour-selected-hitler-defending-local-candidate-peterborough/
    Corbyn's Labour Party was infested with lunatics. Absolute nutters not only standing as candidates in Peterborough but someone has vetted him as kosher and then members have voted for him. My local BLP is posting Marxist newspaper articles on Facebook politics groups. London Young Labour extolling the virtue of IRA murderers.

    They all have to go. I fought them. They broke me. I quit and said "you've won" as I couldn't face myself in the mirror any more, and having resolved that Corbyn must be stopped I took a step too far, joined the OAP retirement club and did my best to talk myself into it.

    As my now ex-MP has put to the local dissenters objecting to my return, if they can't accept back a 25 year veteran member how do they hope to win back the decades-long Labour voters who voted Tory in December? I know that BJO doesn't care about winning elections, but some of us do.
    How can a splitter like you claim to care about Lab winning elections when you have done F**k all to ensure we have one for years and even actively campaigned against them a few months ago

    Did you care about winning in 2017? When you have done the Hours I have over the past 40 years come back
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. 1983, be a good way for the Conservatives to lose a lot of English support.

    I was surprised in 2015 (I think it was) when my mother was very against the Scottish Conservative position on... I think it was the winter fuel allowance ending in England but continuing in Scotland.

    However, bringing it back to now, if certain parts of the UK including places in England/Wales have the furlough for a little longer that will draw the sting. If it's a straight Scotland/England difference then a lot of people will be pissed off about that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Andy_JS said:

    "Britain's Covid-19 lockdown was futile, says Swedish epidemiologist

    Johan Giesecke, who helped shape Sweden's approach to coronavirus, says lockdown does not protect vulnerable in care homes"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/06/britains-lockdown-futile-says-swedish-epidemiologist/

    Futile? The statistics seem to suggest otherwise.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    The government can for now maintain one of the greatest and cruelest deceptions ever perpetrated by any UK government on the people of Britain - that lockdown is a consequence free policy.

    That we have time and money to go on and on until the virus is 'beaten' (whatever beaten looks like).

    Headlines like a 14% contraction in the UK economy, greatest recession in 300 years are meaningless to the millions on furlough who think they are going to walk back into jobs. Or those in the public sector that think they can never be culled

    Economic meltdown? dramatic fall in living standards?

    yeh whatever

    The fact is that many of these people are long term redundant, they just don;t know it yet.

    When Rishi turns off the taps, as he must one day, well...

    What was the viable alternative?
    If that's going to be the position of Boris and his shills when the sh8t hits the fan, well, I reckon he might not last the year.
    I'm not a Boris shill I'm a realist. The entire western world is facing an economic crash. I don't see a solitary exception. If you are oh so wise and think we could have done without furloughing which even the Swedes have done then please say how oh wise one.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    I'll accept that. It's just that their best..........
    But can you imagine if it had been Corbyn, Abbott and people like that running it?!

    :anguished:
    If you recall the coup attempt of last September, the elected by a massive majority deputy leader was to be stripped of powers which were to be handed to the NEC. So lets assume that Labour won the 2019 election and Corbyn like Johnson contracted the virus doing one of his LOOK AT ME cretin clapping shows in the street. Corbyn is in ICU, leaving a designated stand-in (Pidcock) as the spokesperson for an NEC committee made up of Corbyn apparatchiks.

    Its hard to consider a worst bunch of people than the cabinet to be (badly) running the country during this pandemic. Then you remember the alternative on offer last December. Which is why the answer to the GE question was "neither".
    I think we'd all be scared if Pidcock was running this!

    :scream:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Could we frame the Brexit voters differing views on lockdown as ‘Remain indoors’’ vs ‘Leave the house’?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    sure, they can pay for it. They have their own separate tax system now.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    sure, they can pay for it. They have their own separate tax system now.
    LOL Scotland and Wales government stand on their own feet???

    HAHAHAHA.....HA
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Do we have today’s numbers?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,755

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    eadric said:

    Nigelb said:

    The use of facemasks by the general population to prevent transmission of Covid 19 infection: A systematic review.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087064v1
    ...This systematic review aims to summarize the available evidence regarding the role of face mask in community settings in slowing the spread of respiratory viruses such as SARS- CoV-2. Methods The preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used for this review. A literature search using PUBMED, Google Scholar, and Cochrane database were performed using Medical subject heading (MeSH) words from the year 2000-2020. The articles focused on the use of masks and N95 respirators in healthcare workers were excluded. Results A total of 305 records were identified, out of which 14 articles were included in the review based upon quality and eligibility criteria. All the articles mentioned about the role of face masks in preventing the spread of respiratory viruses like influenza, SARS, and SARS-CoV-2, in the community or experimental setting. Studies also suggested that early initiation of face mask usage was more effective. Masks were also reported to be more effective in viruses that transmit easily from asymptomatic individuals, as is now known in SARS-CoV-2. Conclusion Theoretical, experimental, and clinical evidence suggested that usage of face masks in a general population offered significant benefit in preventing the spread of respiratory viruses especially in the pandemic situation, but its utility is limited by inconsistent adherence to mask usage.

    Of course masks work. It's the simplest, easiest way of slowing a pandemic.

    We learned this painfully during Spanish flu, when masks eventually became mandatory across the West. It is quite incredible that we are having to learn it all over again, very very slowly.
    Naturally.
    But the official line remains that we have insufficient evidence...
    Whatever the rights and wrongs of masks, as someone who had done couple of systematic reviews, supervised ten or so and marked many others (masters dissertations), the search looks, well... really quite bad. Two databases only (ok, and google scholar, but limited to top 30 results), very limited search terms (seems like you have to match 'community' or 'household') and very few results screened. For most things you expect thousands - can be fewer, but low numbers like that should ring alarm bells about a possibly bad search. Also the synthesis is pretty much non-existent. If I was marking this (at masters level) I'm not sure it would even pass.
    Rule of thumb for me is you probably want to at least be title or abstract screening a couple of thousand results, which would suggest the search strategy is awful. Just checked the search strategy. It's awful.

    Genuinely can't see that this would pass a Masters. As you say there's essentially no attempt at synthesis. But it would fail anyway because it lacks any assessment of study quality, not even basic checklist stuff.

    Also the way they've handled mathematical modelling studies is odd. It's pretty common simply to exclude them, but sensible to check how they've populated the model - if the effect of masks wasn't assigned arbitrarily, there's a chance this could lead you on to other studies that have generated relevant evidence. Arguably you could use a modelling study to estimate the effectiveness of masks from observed data (particularly if you had regional data on proportion of people who wear masks and you do some sort of Bayesian synthesis thingy to find a posterior estimate of effectiveness) so perhaps in this case a blanket "no modelling studies" wouldn't be appropriate, but the review suggests (though doesn't make clear - another failing point, as it can't even report the studies adequately!) the modellers just made arbitrary effectiveness numbers up at the individual level and wanted to see the impact at the population level.

    Anyhow a Masters fail wouldn't be too bad considering the second author is described as "Student Grade 11 IB , The Shri Ram School" (a posho Indian boarding school)...
    I was being charitable (and hadn't read as much of it as you). Not that bad for school level, I guess :wink:

    Does raise a point though, about all the stuff getting punted on to pre-pub servers. Has some utility for sharing things quickly, but people do need to be aware that some of it is really low quality. Doesn't really matter for the research community, who will pick out the obviously poor quality studies, but some pre-pubs are getting picked up in the media. The journalists and readers are probably not well equipped to judge quality.

    @Nigelb has posted several pre-pubs here (it's interesting, I like that he does it and I've no objection - most of the ones more or less in my field haven't looked too bad either) but there are some I've glanced at and thought it's not my field and I've no real idea whether the research is any good.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sturgeon has to push for differing easing of lockdowns for England & Scotland to show they can do things themselves. She’d be a fool not to
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited May 2020
    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    isam said:

    We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

    Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

    Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

    Starmer really does have to play the long game here. The case is that the government is not up to the job that fate has asked it to do - both during the crisis and its aftermath. We are at the very start of the argument and he has not started badly. Right now, though, most people (quite rightly) support the lockdown and the the financial aid the government has come up with. Starmer and the Labour party do as well (quite rightly). This is about years, not weeks or months.
    The latest poll had both Labour and the Govt falling though

    MoE

    When will we be 20% ahead as forecast please?

    Who forecast that?

    The damage done to Labour's standing over the last few years has been immense. It's going to take years to mend. At least we now have a leader who may be able to go some way to doing it. You can see that in his personal ratings.
    But in early 2019 Labour was ahead!
    Yes, people do not give Johnson enough credit. The ghastly guy pulled off an utter triumph, electorally, and he has genuine appeal to lots of people. I think it's because the host of this site, plus many of the more prolific and influential participants, have a very dim view of both him AND Corbyn - thus the preferred narrative is that Johnson is crap but won a landslide because Corbyn was twice as crap. This doesn't ring true to me. It was many things, clearly, but what it mainly was was "Boris" and his all conquering message, Get Brexit Done, which played well to both Leavers and the large number of Remainers who nevertheless were sick and tired of "it" and wanted "it" done.
    Perversely enough, I actually believe that the ChangeUK group which split from Labour - and later the Tories - made a significant contribution to the Boris triumph. Firstly they undermined Corbyn - initially on his failure to back a second Referendum - and also cited the anti-Semitic issue. Secondly - and disastrously from their perspective - they failed to back Ken Clarke's Customs Union amendment when it came up last Spring. The LibDems did likewise - yet it only failed by three votes. Had they supported it, May might still be PM with no GE having taken place. The ex-Labour MPs who joined ChangeUK clearly decided that getting rid of Corbyn was more important than stopping No Deal Brexit.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    If your CLP or BLP is continuing to act in a highly factional manner, I suggest that you escalate matters via a complaint through the NW Regional Office. You might find that there's more support for tackling this than you imagine, and they do have some significant powers.

    That appreciated but I am assured that the CLP EC are welcoming me back. The last complaint against me (mistakenly calling Laura Pillock "Pidcock" on Facebook) was dismissed personally by the now departed Senior Regional Director. My BLP chair then raised a complaint that I had "brought the party into disrepute" when I posted a photo of my cut up membership card on Twitter. Which was dismissed as "under what rules do you want us to discipline someone who isn't a party member".

    Essentially if you are a cultist its perfectly ok to literally run against Labour one year and then join Labour the next, but if you are a True Blue Tory like I am its not ok to have what John Lennon described as his "lost weekend".

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885

    Carnyx said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1258400776038363137?s=20

    Is anyone doing similar graphs for Scotland & Wales?

    Any use? This also has the total NRS 'registry office' data further down, week on week. https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker
    Thank you. It does seem that Scotland deaths are plateauing not declining. But I presume this is "total" and not just "hospital" as in the England case above.


    Bit earsly to say but there is an apparent decline.

    AIUI the graph you put was the scottish gmt ones for 'confirmed' (ie tested for coronavirus).

    But look further down at the weekly NRS data - ie death certs etc - all deaths, which would include care homes and home demises, wherther or not formally tested. That is going down. And interestingly it's a fair match for the "excess" deaths for time of year.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    sure, they can pay for it. They have their own separate tax system now.
    Bluntly every day the lockdown/furlough system remains in place more businesses will never open again and more jobs will be lost. It is an inevitable consequence of fixed costs and minimal income. Scotland's economy is in a parlous state already, not supporting the public sector that we think that we are entitled to. More damage to make some political point is just unacceptable.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    The government can for now maintain one of the greatest and cruelest deceptions ever perpetrated by any UK government on the people of Britain - that lockdown is a consequence free policy.

    That we have time and money to go on and on until the virus is 'beaten' (whatever beaten looks like).

    Headlines like a 14% contraction in the UK economy, greatest recession in 300 years are meaningless to the millions on furlough who think they are going to walk back into jobs. Or those in the public sector that think they can never be culled

    Economic meltdown? dramatic fall in living standards?

    yeh whatever

    The fact is that many of these people are long term redundant, they just don;t know it yet.

    When Rishi turns off the taps, as he must one day, well...

    Headlines like "The economy is forecast to bounce back to where it was by the middle of next year" from the same people that brought you the "14% contraction" headline just pass you by, don't they?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Prove positive of the value of the union and this from Nicola
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602
    Making good use of their members' money, as always.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Will Johnson smuggle a bad Brexit through the coronavirus crisis?
    Rafael Behr

    QTWTAIY
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    edited May 2020
    We're lucky to have people like @cricketwyvern to give us the facts.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1258392167048974336
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    I'll accept that. It's just that their best..........
    But can you imagine if it had been Corbyn, Abbott and people like that running it?!

    :anguished:
    If you recall the coup attempt of last September, the elected by a massive majority deputy leader was to be stripped of powers which were to be handed to the NEC. So lets assume that Labour won the 2019 election and Corbyn like Johnson contracted the virus doing one of his LOOK AT ME cretin clapping shows in the street. Corbyn is in ICU, leaving a designated stand-in (Pidcock) as the spokesperson for an NEC committee made up of Corbyn apparatchiks.

    Its hard to consider a worst bunch of people than the cabinet to be (badly) running the country during this pandemic. Then you remember the alternative on offer last December. Which is why the answer to the GE question was "neither".
    We will file that under Rochdale making further excuses for joining the Swinson Shit show to Campaign against Labour and then claim others dont want to win GEs
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    The polls do seem to be defying gravity and I wonder how long they can continue to do so.

    I recall that there were occasions back in my school days when the whole class was kept in by the teacher for 10 minutes over break as a collective punishment. We looked out of the window and saw others enjoying their release at break. It didn't work and it fostered resentment that the teacher wan't capable of managing the class effectively and had failed to deal with the minority causing the problem. Teachers who did this lost respect rapidly.

    If things continue largely as they are for yet another next three weeks, I think we'll be gazing enviously across the channel at all those countries enjoying their release, and reflecting on the ineptitude of those in charge here that caused us to be so different.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    If your CLP or BLP is continuing to act in a highly factional manner, I suggest that you escalate matters via a complaint through the NW Regional Office. You might find that there's more support for tackling this than you imagine, and they do have some significant powers.

    That appreciated but I am assured that the CLP EC are welcoming me back. The last complaint against me (mistakenly calling Laura Pillock "Pidcock" on Facebook) was dismissed personally by the now departed Senior Regional Director. My BLP chair then raised a complaint that I had "brought the party into disrepute" when I posted a photo of my cut up membership card on Twitter. Which was dismissed as "under what rules do you want us to discipline someone who isn't a party member".

    Essentially if you are a cultist its perfectly ok to literally run against Labour one year and then join Labour the next, but if you are a True Blue Tory like I am its not ok to have what John Lennon described as his "lost weekend".

    I would be appalled if people such as Ian Austin and John Woodcock were readmitted to party membership. Both sent out literature in marginal seats exhorting Labour voters to vote Tory. Has Gisela Stuart been expelled yet?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nine Chelsea Pensioners have died after contracting coronavirus, the Royal Hospital Chelsea has confirmed.

    The home for military veterans, which has been in existence for more than 300 years, said a further 58 residents had so far recovered after testing positive or showing symptoms.

    Some 290 army veterans live at the Royal Hospital.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-52534330

    Overall mortality 3% odd, and could rise.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    I'll accept that. It's just that their best..........
    But can you imagine if it had been Corbyn, Abbott and people like that running it?!

    :anguished:
    If you recall the coup attempt of last September, the elected by a massive majority deputy leader was to be stripped of powers which were to be handed to the NEC. So lets assume that Labour won the 2019 election and Corbyn like Johnson contracted the virus doing one of his LOOK AT ME cretin clapping shows in the street. Corbyn is in ICU, leaving a designated stand-in (Pidcock) as the spokesperson for an NEC committee made up of Corbyn apparatchiks.

    Its hard to consider a worst bunch of people than the cabinet to be (badly) running the country during this pandemic. Then you remember the alternative on offer last December. Which is why the answer to the GE question was "neither".
    We will file that under Rochdale making further excuses for joining the Swinson Shit show to Campaign against Labour and then claim others dont want to win GEs
    While you, meanwhile, stayed in the Labour Party while it was run and dominated by filthy anti-semites.

    Of the two I would say @Rochdale has pursued the more honourable path.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Lol, what? Local decision needs local funding.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TOPPING said:


    To think that this was the work of an unguided speculative press is one of the more naive responses I have seen during the crisis. Untypical of Richard.

    Let's see what the reality is first, shall we? If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on the easing of the lockdown on Sunday being nothing like the speculation the press have been frothing over.

    Probably what has happened is that there have been lots of discussions within government with various people pushing various angles, and some of those with limited knowledge have been talking to the press, who have then embellished it. That's usually how it works.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    TOPPING said:


    To think that this was the work of an unguided speculative press is one of the more naive responses I have seen during the crisis. Untypical of Richard.

    Let's see what the reality is first, shall we? If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on the easing of the lockdown on Sunday being nothing like the speculation the press have been frothing over.

    Probably what has happened is that there have been lots of discussions within government with various people pushing various angles, and some of those with limited knowledge have been talking to the press, who have then embellished it. That's usually how it works.
    Telegraph say Raab today will announce it's extension.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Serious questions for the governments in Westminster, Edinburgh & Cardiff - they all got the report.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    I may be wrong but I think Russia has had more than 10k new cases every day this week. Deaths are still quite low but the infection rate seems much worse than when we had those pictures of the queueing ambulances 3-4 weeks ago.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:


    To think that this was the work of an unguided speculative press is one of the more naive responses I have seen during the crisis. Untypical of Richard.

    Let's see what the reality is first, shall we? If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on the easing of the lockdown on Sunday being nothing like the speculation the press have been frothing over.

    Probably what has happened is that there have been lots of discussions within government with various people pushing various angles, and some of those with limited knowledge have been talking to the press, who have then embellished it. That's usually how it works.
    It usually works that the govt wants to fly a kite or pre-announce a policy and briefs its friendly journalists accordingly. As appears to have happened in this instance and then, via Starmer and Sturgeon, that kite was shot down and hence the u-turn.

    Is what it appears to be and I'm surprised that this is at all contentious but yes we shall wait and see.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676



    For all of your holier than thou crap you were quite happy to have a Tory government to shat on the people you claim to speak for "because Iraq".

    Meanwhile you did exactly the same 5 months ago

    For all of your holier than thou crap you were quite happy to have a Tory government to shat on the people you claim to speak for and you even joined another party rather than have a Labour PM

    When will we be 20% ahead as forecast?
    *grin* do keep up. I directly ran a local LD campaign
    Thanks so you deliberately wanted Labour to lose in your Constituency.

    Then come on here preaching that others who have worked their arses off for a Labour Government for nearly all the last 40 years "aren't bothered about winning Elections".

    You know what.

    I am happy to have you back in the party if you truly want a Labour victory this time but can understand why some, who have seen you up close actively working against Lab such a short time ago arent that keen.

    How do you think we will do in 2024?

    I think worse than 2017 but better than 2019.

    If there is an ongoing deep recession maybe we win.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    I'll accept that. It's just that their best..........
    But can you imagine if it had been Corbyn, Abbott and people like that running it?!

    :anguished:
    If you recall the coup attempt of last September, the elected by a massive majority deputy leader was to be stripped of powers which were to be handed to the NEC. So lets assume that Labour won the 2019 election and Corbyn like Johnson contracted the virus doing one of his LOOK AT ME cretin clapping shows in the street. Corbyn is in ICU, leaving a designated stand-in (Pidcock) as the spokesperson for an NEC committee made up of Corbyn apparatchiks.

    Its hard to consider a worst bunch of people than the cabinet to be (badly) running the country during this pandemic. Then you remember the alternative on offer last December. Which is why the answer to the GE question was "neither".
    We will file that under Rochdale making further excuses for joining the Swinson Shit show to Campaign against Labour and then claim others dont want to win GEs
    Corbyn didn't deserve to win an election or Rochdale's vote. Rochdale deserves respect for refusing to vote for that vile racist just as I chose not to vote for Theresa "Go Home" May.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    The government can for now maintain one of the greatest and cruelest deceptions ever perpetrated by any UK government on the people of Britain - that lockdown is a consequence free policy.

    That we have time and money to go on and on until the virus is 'beaten' (whatever beaten looks like).

    Headlines like a 14% contraction in the UK economy, greatest recession in 300 years are meaningless to the millions on furlough who think they are going to walk back into jobs. Or those in the public sector that think they can never be culled

    Economic meltdown? dramatic fall in living standards?

    yeh whatever

    The fact is that many of these people are long term redundant, they just don;t know it yet.

    When Rishi turns off the taps, as he must one day, well...

    What was the viable alternative?
    If that's going to be the position of Boris and his shills when the sh8t hits the fan, well, I reckon he might not last the year.
    I'm not a Boris shill I'm a realist. The entire western world is facing an economic crash. I don't see a solitary exception. If you are oh so wise and think we could have done without furloughing which even the Swedes have done then please say how oh wise one.
    It occurred to me the other day that if we'd had the COVID out break, say 50 years ago, there would have been no prospect of a lockdown anywhere, because far fewer in the West's population would have made it to the age where you stand a reasonable chance of dying from it, or even suffering that much from it.

    We'd have just gone on as normal.

    On that basis, there surely has to have been a far better response than the one our government has given. Or any Western government has given, for that matter.

    People may believe your argument that what will follow was inevitable, or they may take the view that the blow could have been softened.

    But I reckon that when summer turns to autumn and there are millions on the dole in our country, everybody's going to be looking for someone to blame.

    And I dont think they will accept the view it was the virus wot dunnit

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    TOPPING said:


    To think that this was the work of an unguided speculative press is one of the more naive responses I have seen during the crisis. Untypical of Richard.

    Let's see what the reality is first, shall we? If I were a betting man, I'd be betting on the easing of the lockdown on Sunday being nothing like the speculation the press have been frothing over.

    Probably what has happened is that there have been lots of discussions within government with various people pushing various angles, and some of those with limited knowledge have been talking to the press, who have then embellished it. That's usually how it works.
    Not to mention the lack of enthusiasm in Scotland and Wales.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    DavidL said:

    I may be wrong but I think Russia has had more than 10k new cases every day this week. Deaths are still quite low but the infection rate seems much worse than when we had those pictures of the queueing ambulances 3-4 weeks ago.

    The Baltic states seem to have missed the full effects of the virus but Russia seems to be having a very bad attack.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    DavidL said:

    I may be wrong but I think Russia has had more than 10k new cases every day this week. Deaths are still quite low but the infection rate seems much worse than when we had those pictures of the queueing ambulances 3-4 weeks ago.

    They've just extended the lockdown in Moscow to the end of May.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Death Rigby banging on about how confused she is. The media constantly complaining how confusing everything is, but the public don't seem to be. Maybe the press pack are just a bit slow.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    The government can for now maintain one of the greatest and cruelest deceptions ever perpetrated by any UK government on the people of Britain - that lockdown is a consequence free policy.

    That we have time and money to go on and on until the virus is 'beaten' (whatever beaten looks like).

    Headlines like a 14% contraction in the UK economy, greatest recession in 300 years are meaningless to the millions on furlough who think they are going to walk back into jobs. Or those in the public sector that think they can never be culled

    Economic meltdown? dramatic fall in living standards?

    yeh whatever

    The fact is that many of these people are long term redundant, they just don;t know it yet.

    When Rishi turns off the taps, as he must one day, well...

    What was the viable alternative?
    If that's going to be the position of Boris and his shills when the sh8t hits the fan, well, I reckon he might not last the year.
    I'm not a Boris shill I'm a realist. The entire western world is facing an economic crash. I don't see a solitary exception. If you are oh so wise and think we could have done without furloughing which even the Swedes have done then please say how oh wise one.
    It occurred to me the other day that if we'd had the COVID out break, say 50 years ago, there would have been no prospect of a lockdown anywhere, because far fewer in the West's population would have made it to the age where you stand a reasonable chance of dying from it, or even suffering that much from it.

    We'd have just gone on as normal.

    On that basis, there surely has to have been a far better response than the one our government has given. Or any Western government has given, for that matter.

    People may believe your argument that what will follow was inevitable, or they may take the view that the blow could have been softened.

    But I reckon that when summer turns to autumn and there are millions on the dole in our country, everybody's going to be looking for someone to blame.

    And I dont think they will accept the view it was the virus wot dunnit

    I'm not disputing that people can be wrong. I'm disputing what is real. What real alternative is there?

    People quite rightly were afraid - and not just of getting sick themselves but being responsible for killing their parents or grandparents. With or without a lockdown the economy would grind to a halt.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    86583 test yesterday
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    86k tests...BJO incoming...
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    justin124 said:

    If your CLP or BLP is continuing to act in a highly factional manner, I suggest that you escalate matters via a complaint through the NW Regional Office. You might find that there's more support for tackling this than you imagine, and they do have some significant powers.

    That appreciated but I am assured that the CLP EC are welcoming me back. The last complaint against me (mistakenly calling Laura Pillock "Pidcock" on Facebook) was dismissed personally by the now departed Senior Regional Director. My BLP chair then raised a complaint that I had "brought the party into disrepute" when I posted a photo of my cut up membership card on Twitter. Which was dismissed as "under what rules do you want us to discipline someone who isn't a party member".

    Essentially if you are a cultist its perfectly ok to literally run against Labour one year and then join Labour the next, but if you are a True Blue Tory like I am its not ok to have what John Lennon described as his "lost weekend".

    I would be appalled if people such as Ian Austin and John Woodcock were readmitted to party membership. Both sent out literature in marginal seats exhorting Labour voters to vote Tory. Has Gisela Stuart been expelled yet?
    It's too early yet. But if they reapply after a decent interval, then I would have them back in. You have to accept that Labour cannot win without gaining the support of a very broad coalition, and we're a long way from that at this point.

    Whenever someone prominent who has supported another party applies to join yours, then the rule is that you admit them provided you believe their motives are genuine. It indicates that your party is capable of appealing beyond a narrow base, and that your opponents are not what they once were. If Ian Austin were backing the Labour candidate in Dudley North next time, then it would be totemic given what happened in 2019. On the other hand, if he reapplied and was thrown out, it would get a lot of coverage and people would conclude that Corbyn's lot were still pulling the strings of the front man.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Death Rigby banging on about how confused she is. The media constantly complaining how confusing everything is, but the public don't seem to be. Maybe the press pack are just a bit slow.

    This ain't far from the truth
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Death Rigby banging on about how confused she is. The media constantly complaining how confusing everything is, but the public don't seem to be. Maybe the press pack are just a bit slow.

    The confusion is caused by the briefing to the tabloids by look of things.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    How can a splitter like you claim to care about Lab winning elections when you have done F**k all to ensure we have one for years and even actively campaigned against them a few months ago

    Did you care about winning in 2017? When you have done the Hours I have over the past 40 years come back

    My bit won in 2017. I directly fought off the Corbynite candidate, helped land the candidate we wanted. In a team of 3 wrote the leaflets the slogans the key themes. Overturned a 5k Tory majority. Pity about the national picture but don't forget that we only had an election because Corbyn was 20 points in the hole.

    Anyway, me and thee probably shouldn't be in the same party. I gave up for a little while, didn't campaign against Labour as you suggest, and am now back. The trots and the loons are on the way out. And rightly so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    R - 05 - 09
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    R between 0.5 -0.9...thats a big range.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    edited May 2020

    Politically, it would be a very strong argument in favour of Unionism if this happened.
    Though perhaps blunted by yet another resurgence of #fuckoffScotland on English twitter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    R between 0.5-0.9 - a bit too close to 1.0 for comfort......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    This is pointless announcement, its an announcement about an announcement.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    R between 0.5 -0.9...thats a big range.

    inverse problems are hard.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    Politically, it would be a very strong argument in favour of Unionism if this happened.
    Though perhaps blunted by yet another resurgence of #fuckoffScotland on English twitter.
    You listen to twitter !!!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,885
    edited May 2020

    Politically, it would be a very strong argument in favour of Unionism if this happened.
    Though perhaps blunted by yet another resurgence of #fuckofScotland on English twitter.
    [deleted]
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Politically, it would be a very strong argument in favour of Unionism if this happened.
    Though perhaps blunted by yet another resurgence of #fuckofScotland on English twitter.
    #fuckofscotland is a disgraceful hashtag.

    Should be off.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527



    For all of your holier than thou crap you were quite happy to have a Tory government to shat on the people you claim to speak for "because Iraq".

    Meanwhile you did exactly the same 5 months ago

    For all of your holier than thou crap you were quite happy to have a Tory government to shat on the people you claim to speak for and you even joined another party rather than have a Labour PM

    When will we be 20% ahead as forecast?
    *grin* do keep up. I directly ran a local LD campaign
    Thanks so you deliberately wanted Labour to lose in your Constituency.

    Then come on here preaching that others who have worked their arses off for a Labour Government for nearly all the last 40 years "aren't bothered about winning Elections".

    You know what.

    I am happy to have you back in the party if you truly want a Labour victory this time but can understand why some, who have seen you up close actively working against Lab such a short time ago arent that keen.

    How do you think we will do in 2024?

    I think worse than 2017 but better than 2019.

    If there is an ongoing deep recession maybe we win.
    If someone has recently actively capaigned for another party , I believe there is a strong case for barring them from membership for several years thereafter. I allowed my Labour membership to lapse at the end of 1996 and have never sought to rejoin. Last year I voted Green but did not actively campaign. Were I apply to rejoin , there is a good possibility I would be readmitted - given that I do belong to an affiliated organisation - the Jewish Labour Movement. However, had I openly worked for another party as recently as last December, I would not consider it reasonable to be allowed to return with open arms.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    R between 0.5 -0.9...thats a big range.

    inverse problems are hard.
    It is, but if it is 0.9 there is very little headroom. 0.5 is allows quite different options.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Raab basically saying: We (the UK government) will decide, not you Sturgeon Drakeford or Arlene
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,602

    Death Rigby banging on about how confused she is. The media constantly complaining how confusing everything is, but the public don't seem to be. Maybe the press pack are just a bit slow.

    She does seem very easily confused.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    44% working from home v 12% last year
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    edited May 2020

    R between 0.5 -0.9...thats a big range.

    inverse problems are hard.
    It is, but if it is 0.9 there is very little headroom. 0.5 is allows quite different options.
    oh not disagreeing at all. Just stating that the estimate of R as 0.7 +/- 0.2 stated is just a reflection of handling an inverse problem involving noisy data.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    Politically, it would be a very strong argument in favour of Unionism if this happened.
    Though perhaps blunted by yet another resurgence of #fuckofScotland on English twitter.
    #fuckofscotland is a disgraceful hashtag.

    Should be off.
    I don't know to what you're referring?
    :)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902



    *grin* do keep up. I directly ran a local LD campaign

    Thanks so you deliberately wanted Labour to lose in your Constituency.

    Then come on here preaching that others who have worked their arses off for a Labour Government for nearly all the last 40 years "aren't bothered about winning Elections".

    You know what.

    I am happy to have you back in the party if you truly want a Labour victory this time but can understand why some, who have seen you up close actively working against Lab such a short time ago arent that keen.

    How do you think we will do in 2024?

    I think worse than 2017 but better than 2019.

    If there is an ongoing deep recession maybe we win.
    Labour were TOAST in our constituency. The MP knew it and said so from the start. Running - in direct conjunction with him - a campaign to get Tory waverers to vote LibDem - was our part in trying to keep him in office. The entire LD exec wanted him to win and we campaigned accordingly.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999
    Ave_it said:

    Raab basically saying: We (the UK government) will decide, not you Sturgeon Drakeford or Arlene

    Any update on 'the plan'? Your fingernails must be chewed to the bone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Politically, it would be a very strong argument in favour of Unionism if this happened.
    Though perhaps blunted by yet another resurgence of #fuckofScotland on English twitter.
    #fuckofscotland is a disgraceful hashtag.

    Should be off.
    I don't know to what you're referring?
    :)
    I thought that tag was for people boasting about good times they’ve had north of the border.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Last week, Keir Starmer was forced to admonish Diane Abbott and Bell Ribeiro-Addy for taking part in a Zoom chat with a number of notorious Labour antisemites, including Jackie Walker and Tony Greenstein. His warning clearly made no difference as Guido can now reveal just a day later Abbott and Ribeiro-Addy – who this time was hosting – held a Zoom festival sharing a platform with notorious Anti-Zionist Chris Williamson supporter Lindsey German. This time the pair were joined by Jeremy Corbyn and Apsana Begum

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/07/corbyn-joins-abbott-ribeiro-addy-anther-antisemitic-zoom-chat/
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    If your CLP or BLP is continuing to act in a highly factional manner, I suggest that you escalate matters via a complaint through the NW Regional Office. You might find that there's more support for tackling this than you imagine, and they do have some significant powers.

    That appreciated but I am assured that the CLP EC are welcoming me back. The last complaint against me (mistakenly calling Laura Pillock "Pidcock" on Facebook) was dismissed personally by the now departed Senior Regional Director. My BLP chair then raised a complaint that I had "brought the party into disrepute" when I posted a photo of my cut up membership card on Twitter. Which was dismissed as "under what rules do you want us to discipline someone who isn't a party member".

    Essentially if you are a cultist its perfectly ok to literally run against Labour one year and then join Labour the next, but if you are a True Blue Tory like I am its not ok to have what John Lennon described as his "lost weekend".

    I would be appalled if people such as Ian Austin and John Woodcock were readmitted to party membership. Both sent out literature in marginal seats exhorting Labour voters to vote Tory. Has Gisela Stuart been expelled yet?
    It's too early yet. But if they reapply after a decent interval, then I would have them back in. You have to accept that Labour cannot win without gaining the support of a very broad coalition, and we're a long way from that at this point.

    Whenever someone prominent who has supported another party applies to join yours, then the rule is that you admit them provided you believe their motives are genuine. It indicates that your party is capable of appealing beyond a narrow base, and that your opponents are not what they once were. If Ian Austin were backing the Labour candidate in Dudley North next time, then it would be totemic given what happened in 2019. On the other hand, if he reapplied and was thrown out, it would get a lot of coverage and people would conclude that Corbyn's lot were still pulling the strings of the front man.
    No - Ian Austin went to great lengths to damage Labour and was actively supporting the Tories. It gave me great pleasure to send him several messages via Twitter to the effect that he was following the wonderful example of Pierre Laval - by starting off on the Left then moving sharply to the Right.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    The government can for now maintain one of the greatest and cruelest deceptions ever perpetrated by any UK government on the people of Britain - that lockdown is a consequence free policy.

    That we have time and money to go on and on until the virus is 'beaten' (whatever beaten looks like).

    Headlines like a 14% contraction in the UK economy, greatest recession in 300 years are meaningless to the millions on furlough who think they are going to walk back into jobs. Or those in the public sector that think they can never be culled

    Economic meltdown? dramatic fall in living standards?

    yeh whatever

    The fact is that many of these people are long term redundant, they just don;t know it yet.

    When Rishi turns off the taps, as he must one day, well...

    What was the viable alternative?
    If that's going to be the position of Boris and his shills when the sh8t hits the fan, well, I reckon he might not last the year.
    I'm not a Boris shill I'm a realist. The entire western world is facing an economic crash. I don't see a solitary exception. If you are oh so wise and think we could have done without furloughing which even the Swedes have done then please say how oh wise one.
    It occurred to me the other day that if we'd had the COVID out break, say 50 years ago, there would have been no prospect of a lockdown anywhere, because far fewer in the West's population would have made it to the age where you stand a reasonable chance of dying from it, or even suffering that much from it.

    We'd have just gone on as normal.

    On that basis, there surely has to have been a far better response than the one our government has given. Or any Western government has given, for that matter.

    People may believe your argument that what will follow was inevitable, or they may take the view that the blow could have been softened.

    But I reckon that when summer turns to autumn and there are millions on the dole in our country, everybody's going to be looking for someone to blame.

    And I dont think they will accept the view it was the virus wot dunnit

    I'm not disputing that people can be wrong. I'm disputing what is real. What real alternative is there?

    People quite rightly were afraid - and not just of getting sick themselves but being responsible for killing their parents or grandparents. With or without a lockdown the economy would grind to a halt.
    The old saying goes that 'life is for the living'.

    It strikes me that the Western response to COVID, given the disease's profile, has turned that saying its head.

    Given the enormous price the young of this and future generations will pay for west's policy response, its perfectly possible to argue that life is now for the dying.

    and that will have enormous implications for old and young. If the young are stopped from thriving and driving forward the engines of commerce and wealth, then I fear the collapse will be very great.

    But, we shall see. I hope you're right and we bounce back quickly. But I greatly, greatly fear for the future.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    Raab basically saying: We (the UK government) will decide, not you Sturgeon Drakeford or Arlene

    Any update on 'the plan'? Your fingernails must be chewed to the bone.
    :lol: 7pm Sunday! Boris + a 50 page detailed roadmap. It will probably be broadcast in Scotland too if Nicola allows it!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Reading the government letter. Although it says in big letters that the App only works on the Island, logically there isn’t anything geographically specific about it. All they can do is ignore any triggers from people giving postcodes from other locations. The essence of it - recording which devices yours has been close to - will work anywhere, now, and those people clever enough to have given a false postcode will effectively already be in the trial.

    Does it not know where you are though?
    It specifically says that “this app does not use GPS or record locations”.

    Thinking it through, although it says that within four hours of reporting symptoms, the app will notify all your contacts, implying it is somehow automatic, there must surely be a human intervention at that point.? Otherwise assorted paranoid hypochondriacs, larking kids, drunks and worried wells could trigger a whole chain of notifications, wasting time and worrying people unnecessarily with no possibility of any comeback, since who is to say after the event that you didn’t actually have a temperature and a cough?

    I would expect someone to phone you up and run through some screening questions to make sure your response is genuine and to try and screen out the time wasters. At that point they could check verbally whether you live on the island or not, and tell those calling from north island to go see their doctor, phone 111 or whatever.
    That sounds right. I suppose it's why we need an army of track & tracers. No substitute for shoe leather and good old fashioned detective work. Ditto in South Korea and Singapore.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    The government can for now maintain one of the greatest and cruelest deceptions ever perpetrated by any UK government on the people of Britain - that lockdown is a consequence free policy.

    That we have time and money to go on and on until the virus is 'beaten' (whatever beaten looks like).

    Headlines like a 14% contraction in the UK economy, greatest recession in 300 years are meaningless to the millions on furlough who think they are going to walk back into jobs. Or those in the public sector that think they can never be culled

    Economic meltdown? dramatic fall in living standards?

    yeh whatever

    The fact is that many of these people are long term redundant, they just don;t know it yet.

    When Rishi turns off the taps, as he must one day, well...

    What was the viable alternative?
    If that's going to be the position of Boris and his shills when the sh8t hits the fan, well, I reckon he might not last the year.
    I'm not a Boris shill I'm a realist. The entire western world is facing an economic crash. I don't see a solitary exception. If you are oh so wise and think we could have done without furloughing which even the Swedes have done then please say how oh wise one.
    It occurred to me the other day that if we'd had the COVID out break, say 50 years ago, there would have been no prospect of a lockdown anywhere, because far fewer in the West's population would have made it to the age where you stand a reasonable chance of dying from it, or even suffering that much from it.

    We'd have just gone on as normal.

    On that basis, there surely has to have been a far better response than the one our government has given. Or any Western government has given, for that matter.

    People may believe your argument that what will follow was inevitable, or they may take the view that the blow could have been softened.

    But I reckon that when summer turns to autumn and there are millions on the dole in our country, everybody's going to be looking for someone to blame.

    And I dont think they will accept the view it was the virus wot dunnit

    I'm not disputing that people can be wrong. I'm disputing what is real. What real alternative is there?

    People quite rightly were afraid - and not just of getting sick themselves but being responsible for killing their parents or grandparents. With or without a lockdown the economy would grind to a halt.
    The old saying goes that 'life is for the living'.

    It strikes me that the Western response to COVID, given the disease's profile, has turned that saying its head.

    Given the enormous price the young of this and future generations will pay for west's policy response, its perfectly possible to argue that life is now for the dying.

    and that will have enormous implications for old and young. If the young are stopped from thriving and driving forward the engines of commerce and wealth, then I fear the collapse will be very great.

    But, we shall see. I hope you're right and we bounce back quickly. But I greatly, greatly fear for the future.

    I think you'll find most young people don't want to be responsible for the deaths of their parents and grandparents.

    I think you'll find most young people don't want their parents and grandparents to die prematurely.
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287

    Last week, Keir Starmer was forced to admonish Diane Abbott and Bell Ribeiro-Addy for taking part in a Zoom chat with a number of notorious Labour antisemites, including Jackie Walker and Tony Greenstein. His warning clearly made no difference as Guido can now reveal just a day later Abbott and Ribeiro-Addy – who this time was hosting – held a Zoom festival sharing a platform with notorious Anti-Zionist Chris Williamson supporter Lindsey German. This time the pair were joined by Jeremy Corbyn and Apsana Begum

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/07/corbyn-joins-abbott-ribeiro-addy-anther-antisemitic-zoom-chat/

    You get the sense with Labour that Boris could have nipped down to south London for a quickie with Ms Staats and Labour would come up with something to take the headlines.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    eadric said:

    Nigelb said:

    The use of facemasks by the general population to prevent transmission of Covid 19 infection: A systematic review.
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087064v1
    ...This systematic review aims to summarize the available evidence regarding the role of face mask in community settings in slowing the spread of respiratory viruses such as SARS- CoV-2. Methods The preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used for this review. A literature search using PUBMED, Google Scholar, and Cochrane database were performed using Medical subject heading (MeSH) words from the year 2000-2020. The articles focused on the use of masks and N95 respirators in healthcare workers were excluded. Results A total of 305 records were identified, out of which 14 articles were included in the review based upon quality and eligibility criteria. All the articles mentioned about the role of face masks in preventing the spread of respiratory viruses like influenza, SARS, and SARS-CoV-2, in the community or experimental setting. Studies also suggested that early initiation of face mask usage was more effective. Masks were also reported to be more effective in viruses that transmit easily from asymptomatic individuals, as is now known in SARS-CoV-2. Conclusion Theoretical, experimental, and clinical evidence suggested that usage of face masks in a general population offered significant benefit in preventing the spread of respiratory viruses especially in the pandemic situation, but its utility is limited by inconsistent adherence to mask usage.

    Of course masks work. It's the simplest, easiest way of slowing a pandemic.

    We learned this painfully during Spanish flu, when masks eventually became mandatory across the West. It is quite incredible that we are having to learn it all over again, very very slowly.
    Giving this some "Mr Common Sense" (which is unlike me) I would say wearing a medical standard mask MUST to some extent protect others from your "germs" if you are sick with something infectious. However you can't recommend something without providing it.
    That is right. They must prevent at least one of stuff coming in and stuff coming out, or what's the point of them? The problem is partly that the world of medicine is so in thrall to the anecdote police that they won't accept common sense, or anything else other than a RCT, and for various reasons it's impossible to do a mask RCT.

    The question is the behavioural response: does it encourage riskier behaviour?
    Why wouldn't it do the opposite? I have a huge tendency to absentmindedness and therefore to forgetting that perfectly healthy looking strangers could infect me with a lethal disease. Popping masks on them would be an effective reminder.
    People might think that the very fact of having one on obviated the need to be careful/not touch one's face/wash one's hands regularly.
    That is a worry, to be sure, but it also works the other way too, particularly for those of us who work biosafety - the act of wearing a mask and gloves switches us into 'do not touch face' mode, and provides a tactile and visual reminder not to do so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102

    Last week, Keir Starmer was forced to admonish Diane Abbott and Bell Ribeiro-Addy for taking part in a Zoom chat with a number of notorious Labour antisemites, including Jackie Walker and Tony Greenstein. His warning clearly made no difference as Guido can now reveal just a day later Abbott and Ribeiro-Addy – who this time was hosting – held a Zoom festival sharing a platform with notorious Anti-Zionist Chris Williamson supporter Lindsey German. This time the pair were joined by Jeremy Corbyn and Apsana Begum

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/07/corbyn-joins-abbott-ribeiro-addy-anther-antisemitic-zoom-chat/

    To be honest Starmer needs to withdraw the whip and reject them all from the labour party
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,430

    DavidL said:

    I may be wrong but I think Russia has had more than 10k new cases every day this week. Deaths are still quite low but the infection rate seems much worse than when we had those pictures of the queueing ambulances 3-4 weeks ago.

    The Baltic states seem to have missed the full effects of the virus but Russia seems to be having a very bad attack.
    Purely coincidence that the Baltic states locked down early, presumably?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,837
    On the home testing are we using royal mail or couriers?

    For test track and trace to work surely it needs to be same day couriers, ideally who wait outside the address for you to perform the test and then take it back to the lab.

    If its Royal Mail, you might report symptoms on a Friday, receive the test Monday or Tuesday, then if they are well enough venture out to the post box send it back Wednesday and end up getting the results a week after your test! That surely doesnt work at all?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    Raab

    'Whatever is reported in the newspapers is not a reliable guide'

    Amen to that
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    If BAME people are so much more likely to be vulnerable to the virus then differing proportions of BAME people will need to be taken account of international comparisons.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    Raab

    'Whatever is reported in the newspapers is not a reliable guide'

    Amen to that

    Genuine pants shat in Number 10 this afternoon over the "supportive" newspaper coverage
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Ave_it said:

    So despite all.the filthy comments on here about Boris and the Govt... voting intention is unchanged. Its as well to remember that such comments are not the views of the majority.. not even all Labour voters...

    The loony left (remember them) are always the most vocal! Most people know Boris and his team are doing their best...
    The government can for now maintain one of the greatest and cruelest deceptions ever perpetrated by any UK government on the people of Britain - that lockdown is a consequence free policy.

    That we have time and money to go on and on until the virus is 'beaten' (whatever beaten looks like).

    Headlines like a 14% contraction in the UK economy, greatest recession in 300 years are meaningless to the millions on furlough who think they are going to walk back into jobs. Or those in the public sector that think they can never be culled

    Economic meltdown? dramatic fall in living standards?

    yeh whatever

    The fact is that many of these people are long term redundant, they just don;t know it yet.

    When Rishi turns off the taps, as he must one day, well...

    What was the viable alternative?
    If that's going to be the position of Boris and his shills when the sh8t hits the fan, well, I reckon he might not last the year.
    I'm not a Boris shill I'm a realist. The entire western world is facing an economic crash. I don't see a solitary exception. If you are oh so wise and think we could have done without furloughing which even the Swedes have done then please say how oh wise one.
    It occurred to me the other day that if we'd had the COVID out break, say 50 years ago, there would have been no prospect of a lockdown anywhere, because far fewer in the West's population would have made it to the age where you stand a reasonable chance of dying from it, or even suffering that much from it.

    We'd have just gone on as normal.

    On that basis, there surely has to have been a far better response than the one our government has given. Or any Western government has given, for that matter.

    People may believe your argument that what will follow was inevitable, or they may take the view that the blow could have been softened.

    But I reckon that when summer turns to autumn and there are millions on the dole in our country, everybody's going to be looking for someone to blame.

    And I dont think they will accept the view it was the virus wot dunnit

    I'm not disputing that people can be wrong. I'm disputing what is real. What real alternative is there?

    People quite rightly were afraid - and not just of getting sick themselves but being responsible for killing their parents or grandparents. With or without a lockdown the economy would grind to a halt.
    The old saying goes that 'life is for the living'.

    It strikes me that the Western response to COVID, given the disease's profile, has turned that saying its head.

    Given the enormous price the young of this and future generations will pay for west's policy response, its perfectly possible to argue that life is now for the dying.

    and that will have enormous implications for old and young. If the young are stopped from thriving and driving forward the engines of commerce and wealth, then I fear the collapse will be very great.

    But, we shall see. I hope you're right and we bounce back quickly. But I greatly, greatly fear for the future.

    I think you'll find most young people don't want to be responsible for the deaths of their parents and grandparents.

    I think you'll find most young people don't want their parents and grandparents to die prematurely.
    Yeah, this. Guilt is something you want loaded on the elderly, cos they've got less time to have to live with it. The young can then go on with consciences that their increased tax bills are a direct consequence of guaranteeing their parents the chance to see their grandchildren grow up or whatever.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Last week, Keir Starmer was forced to admonish Diane Abbott and Bell Ribeiro-Addy for taking part in a Zoom chat with a number of notorious Labour antisemites, including Jackie Walker and Tony Greenstein. His warning clearly made no difference as Guido can now reveal just a day later Abbott and Ribeiro-Addy – who this time was hosting – held a Zoom festival sharing a platform with notorious Anti-Zionist Chris Williamson supporter Lindsey German. This time the pair were joined by Jeremy Corbyn and Apsana Begum

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/07/corbyn-joins-abbott-ribeiro-addy-anther-antisemitic-zoom-chat/

    To be honest Starmer needs to withdraw the whip and reject them all from the labour party
    The same should have happened to Thatcher and Lamont when they so openly embraced Pinochet in the late 1990s.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,999

    DavidL said:

    I may be wrong but I think Russia has had more than 10k new cases every day this week. Deaths are still quite low but the infection rate seems much worse than when we had those pictures of the queueing ambulances 3-4 weeks ago.

    The Baltic states seem to have missed the full effects of the virus but Russia seems to be having a very bad attack.
    Purely coincidence that the Baltic states locked down early, presumably?
    Poor Balts, they could have been like Sweden if they'd had the nous.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    He changed the intervals on the y axis. Not a good look, these are not like for like graphs but made to look the same.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,226
    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    isam said:

    We've had two re-elections because two substitute Tory leaders haven't liked the result of the previous one. But nobody was allowed to vote again on the other thing because they didn't like the result. Yay democracy!

    Anyway, we all debated the first Starmer vs Johnson PMQs yesterday. Forensic takedown vs populist bluster.

    Politically I'd say the triumph of Starmer was to force Johnson to make it up on the spot. "200k tests a day" and "big announcement Sunday" will not age well...

    Starmer really does have to play the long game here. The case is that the government is not up to the job that fate has asked it to do - both during the crisis and its aftermath. We are at the very start of the argument and he has not started badly. Right now, though, most people (quite rightly) support the lockdown and the the financial aid the government has come up with. Starmer and the Labour party do as well (quite rightly). This is about years, not weeks or months.
    The latest poll had both Labour and the Govt falling though

    MoE

    When will we be 20% ahead as forecast please?

    Who forecast that?

    The damage done to Labour's standing over the last few years has been immense. It's going to take years to mend. At least we now have a leader who may be able to go some way to doing it. You can see that in his personal ratings.
    But in early 2019 Labour was ahead!
    Yes, people do not give Johnson enough credit. The ghastly guy pulled off an utter triumph, electorally, and he has genuine appeal to lots of people. I think it's because the host of this site, plus many of the more prolific and influential participants, have a very dim view of both him AND Corbyn - thus the preferred narrative is that Johnson is crap but won a landslide because Corbyn was twice as crap. This doesn't ring true to me. It was many things, clearly, but what it mainly was was "Boris" and his all conquering message, Get Brexit Done, which played well to both Leavers and the large number of Remainers who nevertheless were sick and tired of "it" and wanted "it" done.
    Perversely enough, I actually believe that the ChangeUK group which split from Labour - and later the Tories - made a significant contribution to the Boris triumph. Firstly they undermined Corbyn - initially on his failure to back a second Referendum - and also cited the anti-Semitic issue. Secondly - and disastrously from their perspective - they failed to back Ken Clarke's Customs Union amendment when it came up last Spring. The LibDems did likewise - yet it only failed by three votes. Had they supported it, May might still be PM with no GE having taken place. The ex-Labour MPs who joined ChangeUK clearly decided that getting rid of Corbyn was more important than stopping No Deal Brexit.
    Yes. PM Corbyn was the price for stopping Brexit. They were not prepared to pay it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    On the home testing are we using royal mail or couriers?

    For test track and trace to work surely it needs to be same day couriers, ideally who wait outside the address for you to perform the test and then take it back to the lab.

    If its Royal Mail, you might report symptoms on a Friday, receive the test Monday or Tuesday, then if they are well enough venture out to the post box send it back Wednesday and end up getting the results a week after your test! That surely doesnt work at all?

    Same day Amazon courier service.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    justin124 said:

    Last week, Keir Starmer was forced to admonish Diane Abbott and Bell Ribeiro-Addy for taking part in a Zoom chat with a number of notorious Labour antisemites, including Jackie Walker and Tony Greenstein. His warning clearly made no difference as Guido can now reveal just a day later Abbott and Ribeiro-Addy – who this time was hosting – held a Zoom festival sharing a platform with notorious Anti-Zionist Chris Williamson supporter Lindsey German. This time the pair were joined by Jeremy Corbyn and Apsana Begum

    https://order-order.com/2020/05/07/corbyn-joins-abbott-ribeiro-addy-anther-antisemitic-zoom-chat/

    To be honest Starmer needs to withdraw the whip and reject them all from the labour party
    The same should have happened to Thatcher and Lamont when they so openly embraced Pinochet in the late 1990s.
    And so you agree with my statement about Starmer
This discussion has been closed.