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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not good pandemic front pages for the government this morning

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    FF43 said:

    Looking at the front pages I have a strong suspicion Prof Ferguson was thrown under the bus at this precise moment to deflect the "Worst in Europe" headlines. They have partially succeeded in doing so.

    Maybe the Government is happy with the Worst in Europe headlines. They will want to keep the population scared. A message that we passed the peak four weeks ago and deaths are falling would not help a gradual and orderly end to lockdown. Similarly, moving to the deaths in all settings figure has made them look worse. (It is true that deaths are still increasing in care homes but I don't see that that affects how you lift lockdown as most of us never go in one)
    The press are going to go with "Worst in Europe" one day, and End The Lockdown Now" the next day, without even thinking about the irony of holding those two positions simultaneously.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    I despise Farage's politics, however he didn't break the lockdown rules for personal reasons. Whether I like him or not he is a journalist and he went to report on a news story. That is not against the rules.

    If Carole Cadwaldr (sp?) or Robert Peston or Piers Morgan or other journalists I dislike did the same thing it would be the same.

    No matter how bad things get healthwise it is not OK to tell journalists they can't report the news.

    In way way is Farage a journalist - speaking as a former NEC member of the NUJ
    With all due respect union affiliations are not what makes you a journalist. Whether we like him or not he is, he reports on the news and has a show on LBC. He's every bit as much a journalists as Carole Cadwaldr etc
    Farage is not a journalist. He is a politician who is published.
    Well politicians aren't locked down either are they if their work is political of nature? But he's certainly not an elected politician. :grin:

    He is however employed by a radio station not a Parliament to broadcast. He is a former politician who is now a journalist.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,517
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

    His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.
    His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.
    Given he is Boris acolyte you can be sure he is crap and his model will also be crap, only the model still to be proven.
    Except he's not a Boris acolyte though. When he's veered into politics on Twitter its as a Remainer who seems keen on the Lib Dems.

    He was there for his science not his politics or views on Brexit.
    Well given he has no common sense, thinks he is above his own advice and lies like your average Tory, we are well shot of him. Will be shedloads of so called experts able to take over from the plonker.
    I agree. It was a warning sign when the silly tosspot got the virus in the first place. Appreciate that might sound unfair, but he was highly influential in deciding the measures that would protect the population from infection - you would think he'd be able to protect himself.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    Literally half of those front pages are of some bloke the public have never heard of having an affair, and the other half are from newspapers who would find a way to blame Boris if he personally cured every infectious disease on the planet.

    I agree with TSE that easing the lockdown is going to be much, much harder than what's gone before. But that holds true for governments around the world, and we will have at least some advantage in learning from the experiences of those that are re-opening before us.

    That worked well with the virus planning , they really used their 2-3 week advantage well.
    Learning from previous failures to learn is the most valuable kind.
    Unfortunately you don't see them learning , this trying to build their own app just so they can prove how macho and independent they are is another howler. They should have got logistics experts in over PPE , etc. These clowns do not listen or want to learn and are oblivious that they are not up to the task in hand.
    I have no confidence they will learn from mistakes, aka Hancock abusing a real front line expert yesterday over his failures, rather than asking her to come meet him and give him her experience.
    In the main most of the duds the Buffoon has surrounded himself with are not up to the job.
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    NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 329
    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

    His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.
    His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.
    It shows he doesn't really, really, really think that lockdown is a sensible (or effective) measure.

    And he has shown this quite elegantly.
    The lockdown has definitely been effective at lowering the transmission rate.
    Of course it has. But what was the cost/benefit?
    Well given the virus is an exponential killer..
    We don't know. As we have all noted on here, much of its exponentialness was people fitting a line to a series of data points. All kinds of anecdotes are emerging (yes, anecdotes) of people, communities having CV symptoms in December. We don't know. But at the moment we are facing an economic challenge the likes of which we won't have seen for decades.

    The cost of a human life, as per the govt's calcs is £1.8m. By most estimates we have spent so far £100bn on anti-CV19 measures.

    At some point there will be a decision that spending such sums on an ongoing basis is too much per lives saved.
    The virus is definitely an exponential killer without mitigation, and our lockdown hasn't been particularly tough - manufacturing has been *thank fuck* allowed to carry on throughout !
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    NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 329
    Here is the link I use every day to check the up to date numbers https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB:en
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,127
    Happy Birthday Tony Blair who shares his birthday with my mother who is 70 today

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1257939372449636352?s=20
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,028
    dr_spyn said:

    Could you lift your right arm above the distant horizon, Mr Farage?

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1257931263849226241

    Metro photographer trolls Nigel Farage.

    My mother says that Farage "won't make old bones". I am inclined to agree with her looking at that photo of the repellent chancer.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,016
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Looking at the front pages I have a strong suspicion Prof Ferguson was thrown under the bus at this precise moment to deflect the "Worst in Europe" headlines. They have partially succeeded in doing so.

    Maybe the Government is happy with the Worst in Europe headlines. They will want to keep the population scared. A message that we passed the peak four weeks ago and deaths are falling would not help a gradual and orderly end to lockdown. Similarly, moving to the deaths in all settings figure has made them look worse. (It is true that deaths are still increasing in care homes but I don't see that that affects how you lift lockdown as most of us never go in one)
    They are not at all happy with those headlines. They are very keen to say you can't make comparisons.
    Well, they have to have a response. But "Worst in Europe" will keep people at home. The election is in 4 years, by then these headlines won't matter, although obviously the results of more considered analysis of the response will be.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,777
    edited May 2020

    malcolmg said:

    Literally half of those front pages are of some bloke the public have never heard of having an affair, and the other half are from newspapers who would find a way to blame Boris if he personally cured every infectious disease on the planet.

    I agree with TSE that easing the lockdown is going to be much, much harder than what's gone before. But that holds true for governments around the world, and we will have at least some advantage in learning from the experiences of those that are re-opening before us.

    That worked well with the virus planning , they really used their 2-3 week advantage well.
    Learning from previous failures to learn is the most valuable kind.
    Not specifically a Covid-19 comment but it does apply here too. People say, don't learn from your own mistakes; learn from others' mistakes. But I think you learn best from others' successes.

    There were relative successes that they could have followed.
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    I do think there's some chance that the tendency of British officaldom to goldplate everything will ironically make our statistics look much worse than many other places that simply take a less rigorous approach.

    For which the government will still be blasted as the worst liars in history, of course...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited May 2020

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,127
    TOPPING said:

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
    What a pity then that neither our politicians nor our journalists give a toss about the thousands of lives lost because on unrestricted air travel.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020

    Password oddity: logging into Paypal I get a message purportedly from Norton (who I don't subscribe to) telling my password has been compromised, why not let it change the password and store it in my vault? I did, briefly, then change my mind and change the PayPal password to one I've never used before. Logging out and going back into Paypal, I get the Norton message again that the password has been compromised (not possible as not used before).

    This looks like a classic scam. But googling "Norton password manager scam" doesn't show up anything of interest. Any suggestions?

    On what type of device did the alert appear on and was the "alert" a browser window or something else? If it was something else I would be rebuilding my computer from scratch (but I'm in IT and it would take me 10 minutes to return things to how they were) in your case download and run Malwarebytes and see if it picks up any issues https://www.malwarebytes.com/malware/
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Literally half of those front pages are of some bloke the public have never heard of having an affair, and the other half are from newspapers who would find a way to blame Boris if he personally cured every infectious disease on the planet.

    I agree with TSE that easing the lockdown is going to be much, much harder than what's gone before. But that holds true for governments around the world, and we will have at least some advantage in learning from the experiences of those that are re-opening before us.

    That worked well with the virus planning , they really used their 2-3 week advantage well.
    Learning from previous failures to learn is the most valuable kind.
    Not specifically a Covid-19 comment but it does apply here too. People say, don't learn from your own mistakes; learn from others' mistakes. But I think you learn best from others' successes.

    There were relative successes that would could have followed.
    I certainly think we should be analysing the various reliefs given around Europe to the lockdowns now and trying to work out what has been ok, what has been problematic and what needs further safeguards. There is much to learn.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TOPPING said:

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
    You're dealing with people who think that the government should not have been criticised by journalists for the Narvik disasters in the Second World War. Tens of thousands of avoidable deaths do not figure in their thinking.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Jonathan said:

    I want to qualify what I wrote earlier. Let's talk football.

    The Government had a piss-poor first half and went about 5-0 down.

    The second half they have played much better, probably narrowly winning it.


    There may be several more legs to play.

    The score was not 5-0 first half. It perhaps SHOULD have been, but Labour had 11 goalies on the pitch, arguing about which of them would take a penalty that never came....
    Rather telling that you think the government is engaged in a match against Labour, rather than the Coronavirus.

    Indeed. I wasn't even thinking about Labour.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Totally O/t, but excitement in the Cole household this morning. Not only is it the Patriarch's birthday, but our blue-tit has hatched, we think, eight chicks. Can't get a decent photo at the moment as the sun is in the 'wrong' place vis a vis the nestbox opening.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    To be fair, I think that Iran and Ecuador, and probably China have more deaths than the UK. However, went to the local pharmacy yesterday and they have no PPE.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Meanwhile, to continue World War Two analogies, it doesn't need Colossus to crack this code:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52553237
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    The trouble is that a lot of those blue collar workers only work in the city because the white collar workers work there.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    malcolmg said:

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

    So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

    We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    Agreed, though as we locked down a week or two after Germany, France, Spain and Italy we should also open up a week or two after them as well and see how their lockdown develops first
    Entirely correct HYUFD. I am not proposing any significant lockdown changes until 1 June. But Boris should announce these on Sunday to give businesses 3 weeks to prepare.
    Some enlightened companies are already planning for it and making big changes for the start of easing. It is obvious from what we have seen what is going to happen.
    It is going to be bad for plenty, some smug Tories will soon get to see how what they counted as lazy indolent scroungers manage to survive at first hand.
    As said earlier they will not find it a bed of roses.
    Withdrawing the furlough will encourage people to stand on their own feet. We need to keep the 'lazy indolent scroungers' to a minimum!
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    coachcoach Posts: 250
    edited May 2020
    The Ferguson story feeds the narrative about one rule for us....

    Govt advisor/expert telling us all to stay indoors while he's meeting up with his blonde (married) mistress. In my coastal town more and more people are out and about, Ferguson won't help turn that around.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Totally O/t, but excitement in the Cole household this morning. Not only is it the Patriarch's birthday, but our blue-tit has hatched, we think, eight chicks. Can't get a decent photo at the moment as the sun is in the 'wrong' place vis a vis the nestbox opening.

    Happy birthday :)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Password oddity: logging into Paypal I get a message purportedly from Norton (who I don't subscribe to) telling my password has been compromised, why not let it change the password and store it in my vault? I did, briefly, then change my mind and change the PayPal password to one I've never used before. Logging out and going back into Paypal, I get the Norton message again that the password has been compromised (not possible as not used before).

    This looks like a classic scam. But googling "Norton password manager scam" doesn't show up anything of interest. Any suggestions?

    That sounds like either a real or fake Norton browser security plugin, or a fake Paypal site (of which their are many).

    Try with a different browser, and check that you are actually on https://paypal.com and didn't get there by clicking a link.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,357
    edited May 2020
    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,914
    Sunak and HMT have done really well on the furlough scheme. Reducing to 60% is just to save money? To pressure some people into applying for new jobs?

  • Options
    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    TOPPING said:

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
    Gosh, it turns out that there are only two extremes of possible behaviour and no sensible middle path through. How quaint
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    TOPPING said:

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
    I would like them to ask more informed questions highlighting areas of concern. Why on earth have we been so out of step on international travel, for example? Why are we trying to reinvent the wheel in relation to the NHS app? What safeguards are there going to be in respect of that data (making it inadmissible for any other purpose might be a start). What is being done about the vulnerable children who are supposed to be turning up at the hubs and have not been seen? A friend of my daughter is a teacher and has not seen several such children once in 6 weeks. One she is so concerned about she has offered to go and see him herself. Social Work say they don't have the right forms yet. Presumably a risk assessment? There is a horror story to come on such children.

    In short there are lots of real issues, lots of areas of concern, lots of room for differences of view. What we get instead is the usual banalities of political journalists interested in who's up, who's down, whether they can contrive a gotcha and a really, really deep failure to understand the numbers, even by those who should know better (Conway and Peston, for example). Its frustrating.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    All the potential pub bankruptcy stories are about x's rent is due June etc.. If there is literally no market for the rent, no matter the tenant then the landlord has a big problem.
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    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,351
    Alistair said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

    His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.
    His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.
    It shows he doesn't really, really, really think that lockdown is a sensible (or effective) measure.

    And he has shown this quite elegantly.
    The lockdown has definitely been effective at lowering the transmission rate.
    Of course it has. But what was the cost/benefit?
    As the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown then surely the pre lockdown advice had the bigger impact.
    Ah, so when you said you wanted us to pay attention to and debate that graph what you actually meant was you wanted us to uncritically accept it as true as it backed up your dogmatic preconceived view.

    Did you even read and process any of the criticism of that chart? Did you read and process any of the criticism of the person who produced the chart?
    Its based on the hospital admissions data which showed that these peaked on the 2nd April 2020. So working back from that date gives a peak of infections around the 20th March. Its quite simple really. Its not a dogmatic preconceived view, its based on facts. Of course you may argue that the hospital admissions data has nothing to do with the rate of infection.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1257714061250265090?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8676/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-road-from-glencassley-the-last-horse-to-win-a-uk-race/p1
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,765
    Ave_it said:

    malcolmg said:

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

    So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

    We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    Agreed, though as we locked down a week or two after Germany, France, Spain and Italy we should also open up a week or two after them as well and see how their lockdown develops first
    Entirely correct HYUFD. I am not proposing any significant lockdown changes until 1 June. But Boris should announce these on Sunday to give businesses 3 weeks to prepare.
    Some enlightened companies are already planning for it and making big changes for the start of easing. It is obvious from what we have seen what is going to happen.
    It is going to be bad for plenty, some smug Tories will soon get to see how what they counted as lazy indolent scroungers manage to survive at first hand.
    As said earlier they will not find it a bed of roses.
    Withdrawing the furlough will encourage people to stand on their own feet. We need to keep the 'lazy indolent scroungers' to a minimum!
    I'm going to start a new career as a freelance photojournalist. My first assignment is a quick trip to Snowdonia to snap the local coppers enforcing the lockdown. I need a nubile "darkroom assistant" to hold my zoom, but I realise this isn't the ideal place to advertise the vacancy.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,777
    edited May 2020
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Literally half of those front pages are of some bloke the public have never heard of having an affair, and the other half are from newspapers who would find a way to blame Boris if he personally cured every infectious disease on the planet.

    I agree with TSE that easing the lockdown is going to be much, much harder than what's gone before. But that holds true for governments around the world, and we will have at least some advantage in learning from the experiences of those that are re-opening before us.

    That worked well with the virus planning , they really used their 2-3 week advantage well.
    Learning from previous failures to learn is the most valuable kind.
    Not specifically a Covid-19 comment but it does apply here too. People say, don't learn from your own mistakes; learn from others' mistakes. But I think you learn best from others' successes.

    There were relative successes that would could have followed.
    I certainly think we should be analysing the various reliefs given around Europe to the lockdowns now and trying to work out what has been ok, what has been problematic and what needs further safeguards. There is much to learn.
    Agree with all of this. Also, while I am critical of the governments' handling of CV19, I do think you have to work forward from where you are, and not from where you think we ought to be. The mistakes previously made limit our options now. We need to accept that and move on from where we are.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I think the biggest bear trap for the government is coming up.

    If the easing of the lockdown turns out to be a mistake then life becomes even more difficult for the government.

    This is essentially right, but there are an interlocking set of bear traps. How do you make people uncomfortable enough to leave their homes when you want them to, and at what time? And what exactly do you tell them?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    coach said:

    The Ferguson story feeds the narrative about one rule for us....

    Govt advisor/expert telling us all to stay indoors while he's meeting up with his blonde (married) mistress. In my coastal town more and more people are out and about, Ferguson won't help turn that around.

    Exactly. If Mr Lockdown himself thinks it's all a load of guff and doesn't really matter what are we proles to think?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Tbh, I have little to no sympathy for property investors. If they all go bankrupt the physical property still exists and it will lead to a correction in rents that is badly needed for businesses to come back to the high street.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    The trouble is that a lot of those blue collar workers only work in the city because the white collar workers work there.
    Oh indeed, there's a lot of secondary support services in the City, which will be badly affected by changes in working habits of others. How many thousand people must work in all the coffee shop kiosks in the morning, and the bars in the afternoon - a few of them are probably the same people!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986

    I think the biggest bear trap for the government is coming up.

    If the easing of the lockdown turns out to be a mistake then life becomes even more difficult for the government.

    This is essentially right, but there are an interlocking set of bear traps. How do you make people uncomfortable enough to leave their homes when you want them to, and at what time? And what exactly do you tell them?
    We're going to email back our UK holiday as soon as the plan is hopefully published on the 8th and let them know we're taking it as soon as they're legally allowed to open. It's self contained and out the way on the lincolnshire coast (Not Mablethorpe or Skegvegas so should* touches wood be a lowish covid risk).
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,319
    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    They are not being thrown under the bus, Sunak has said he will continue to fund furlough at at least 60% of pay past June, even though most businesses will likely have reopened by then.

    Most businesses using furlough *will not* have reopened by then.

    Most businesses should have reopened by then as they should be in a position to start from 1 June given sufficient notice by Boris on Sunday.

    Train operators should be required to provide a normal service. Tube and train drivers have no contact with passengers. If necessary arrangements can be put in place to protect National Rail conductors/staff eg encourage people to buy tickets online.
    Yes you guys keep saying this. But the advice that we have seen leaked is that they will NOT be told to reopen. You can run a hotel. For key workers as everyone else is WFH and no unneccesary journeys. With no bar or restaurant. Pubs shut. Restaurants. Cinemas. Cafes. Museums. Any business that cannot feasibly do 2m distancing shut. Thats what he's announcing.

    Then we have schools. Schools are not reopening. A few kids at a time part time means that parents cannot work as no school or nursery. Nor can they hand kids to their parents as they're largely kept in at least semi-isolation. No staff means no business - it was a lack of staff availability which throttled tube services as was reported at the time in the trade.

    You say "should be required to provide a normal service". OK. Lets take a bus where 2m distancing is required. How many people get on it? Forget the economics as all public transport will be paid for by the government into the future - how practically does it work? Why do you think WFH is staying in place?

    Stop chanting political slogans and *think*
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    TOPPING said:

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
    Gosh, it turns out that there are only two extremes of possible behaviour and no sensible middle path through. How quaint
    Journalists are of the people. They have to be otherwise their papers/radio/blogs would go unseen or unheard (cf. The Next Step). They ask questions that the people want asked, however crass and imperfect PB-ers might think they are. If you want different journalists you need to swap out the British public.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Absolutely. Our High Streets may never recover from this as retail centres. We need to prioritise changes of use wherever possible.
  • Options
    coachcoach Posts: 250
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    All the potential pub bankruptcy stories are about x's rent is due June etc.. If there is literally no market for the rent, no matter the tenant then the landlord has a big problem.
    Correct, and selling the property will be nigh on impossible
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
    I would like them to ask more informed questions highlighting areas of concern. Why on earth have we been so out of step on international travel, for example? Why are we trying to reinvent the wheel in relation to the NHS app? What safeguards are there going to be in respect of that data (making it inadmissible for any other purpose might be a start). What is being done about the vulnerable children who are supposed to be turning up at the hubs and have not been seen? A friend of my daughter is a teacher and has not seen several such children once in 6 weeks. One she is so concerned about she has offered to go and see him herself. Social Work say they don't have the right forms yet. Presumably a risk assessment? There is a horror story to come on such children.

    In short there are lots of real issues, lots of areas of concern, lots of room for differences of view. What we get instead is the usual banalities of political journalists interested in who's up, who's down, whether they can contrive a gotcha and a really, really deep failure to understand the numbers, even by those who should know better (Conway and Peston, for example). Its frustrating.
    As I have said, the journalists ask questions they think their public want to be asked.

    And you will be delighted to learn that you (and @another_richard) are not the only people in the UK to have noticed the air travel seeming anomaly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/just-273-people-arriving-in-uk-in-run-up-to-lockdown-quarantined
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Only aircraft leasing is going to be in worse shape than prime commercial property, once this all shakes out.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    Just reading about the unfolding disaster that is the NHS app. I think this mistake adds an extra two weeks to the lockdown. Is Matt Hancock going to refund the treasury the additional tens of billions his idiotic decisions have cost so far?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Ave_it said:

    malcolmg said:

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

    So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

    We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    Agreed, though as we locked down a week or two after Germany, France, Spain and Italy we should also open up a week or two after them as well and see how their lockdown develops first
    Entirely correct HYUFD. I am not proposing any significant lockdown changes until 1 June. But Boris should announce these on Sunday to give businesses 3 weeks to prepare.
    Some enlightened companies are already planning for it and making big changes for the start of easing. It is obvious from what we have seen what is going to happen.
    It is going to be bad for plenty, some smug Tories will soon get to see how what they counted as lazy indolent scroungers manage to survive at first hand.
    As said earlier they will not find it a bed of roses.
    Withdrawing the furlough will encourage people to stand on their own feet. We need to keep the 'lazy indolent scroungers' to a minimum!
    I'm going to start a new career as a freelance photojournalist. My first assignment is a quick trip to Snowdonia to snap the local coppers enforcing the lockdown. I need a nubile "darkroom assistant" to hold my zoom, but I realise this isn't the ideal place to advertise the vacancy.
    Sean T might have a contact for you!
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,319
    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Transport like schools is THE problem. Schools are simple - they aren't fully reopening. A few kids back at a time part time means parents can't work away from home. So they're out. Those who can might travel to work by bus train or tube. You can't enforce 2m distancing on these rolling petri-dishes. Tube and bus services initially curtailed by staff sickness and self-isolation not by the mayor (c.f. all those dead bus drivers).

    If you ramp it back up, so we have for example a Jubilee train every 90 seconds in the peak. 2 distancing means each train holds a fraction of its normal passengers. You need an army of marshals to keep crowds off the platform. Out of the ticket hall. Down the street. With one-way systems. Assuming you have said army of marshals (they don't) and the ability to run 1 ways systems at every station (they don't).

    Combine schools staying largely shut and public transport staying largely shut means businesses staying largely shut. Unless we are about to abandon distancing or any measures to keep this under control.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
    I would like them to ask more informed questions highlighting areas of concern. Why on earth have we been so out of step on international travel, for example? Why are we trying to reinvent the wheel in relation to the NHS app? What safeguards are there going to be in respect of that data (making it inadmissible for any other purpose might be a start). What is being done about the vulnerable children who are supposed to be turning up at the hubs and have not been seen? A friend of my daughter is a teacher and has not seen several such children once in 6 weeks. One she is so concerned about she has offered to go and see him herself. Social Work say they don't have the right forms yet. Presumably a risk assessment? There is a horror story to come on such children.

    In short there are lots of real issues, lots of areas of concern, lots of room for differences of view. What we get instead is the usual banalities of political journalists interested in who's up, who's down, whether they can contrive a gotcha and a really, really deep failure to understand the numbers, even by those who should know better (Conway and Peston, for example). Its frustrating.
    I've said all along the political journalists shouldn't be the ones asking the questions and it seems recently more and more journalists asking questions at the briefings aren't the usual away of political journalists - and the non-political ones tend to ask better questions.

    It is quite right we need good and though questions asking. Trying to get a 'gotcha' or trying to make it personal - or asking the same question someone else asked 3 minutes ago so you can get a media clip of your own guy asking the question - is not good questioning.
  • Options
    coachcoach Posts: 250
    TOPPING said:

    coach said:

    The Ferguson story feeds the narrative about one rule for us....

    Govt advisor/expert telling us all to stay indoors while he's meeting up with his blonde (married) mistress. In my coastal town more and more people are out and about, Ferguson won't help turn that around.

    Exactly. If Mr Lockdown himself thinks it's all a load of guff and doesn't really matter what are we proles to think?
    Yep, and part of the bigger picture in terms of mistrust in politicians, advisors and experts.

    I'm not sure they're getting the message
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/05/reade-allegations-hurt-bidens-bid-to-unite-democrats-238662

    32% of voters- including 20% of Dem voters- say Reade allegations make them less likely to vote for Biden. 28% of Dem voters want to replace Biden with a different candidate.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,319

    Ave_it said:

    malcolmg said:

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    We need to come out of lockdown as soon as possible for the sake of our sanity, economy and freedom. But in a safe way. So we can't reopen everything yet.

    So Boris needs to present a clear plan on Sunday to us coming out with stages and timescales. This will maintain the support of the nation.

    We don't want the wishy washy 'plan' put forward by the Scottish executive who seem happy to restrict people's freedom for as long as possible.

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    Agreed, though as we locked down a week or two after Germany, France, Spain and Italy we should also open up a week or two after them as well and see how their lockdown develops first
    Entirely correct HYUFD. I am not proposing any significant lockdown changes until 1 June. But Boris should announce these on Sunday to give businesses 3 weeks to prepare.
    Some enlightened companies are already planning for it and making big changes for the start of easing. It is obvious from what we have seen what is going to happen.
    It is going to be bad for plenty, some smug Tories will soon get to see how what they counted as lazy indolent scroungers manage to survive at first hand.
    As said earlier they will not find it a bed of roses.
    Withdrawing the furlough will encourage people to stand on their own feet. We need to keep the 'lazy indolent scroungers' to a minimum!
    I'm going to start a new career as a freelance photojournalist. My first assignment is a quick trip to Snowdonia to snap the local coppers enforcing the lockdown. I need a nubile "darkroom assistant" to hold my zoom, but I realise this isn't the ideal place to advertise the vacancy.
    Sean T might have a contact for you!
    Is it Sean T...?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,416
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    That's the Crown Estate clobbered then. I wonder if we'll need/be asked to bail out the Queen?
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    They are not being thrown under the bus, Sunak has said he will continue to fund furlough at at least 60% of pay past June, even though most businesses will likely have reopened by then.

    Most businesses using furlough *will not* have reopened by then.

    Most businesses should have reopened by then as they should be in a position to start from 1 June given sufficient notice by Boris on Sunday.

    Train operators should be required to provide a normal service. Tube and train drivers have no contact with passengers. If necessary arrangements can be put in place to protect National Rail conductors/staff eg encourage people to buy tickets online.
    Yes you guys keep saying this. But the advice that we have seen leaked is that they will NOT be told to reopen. You can run a hotel. For key workers as everyone else is WFH and no unneccesary journeys. With no bar or restaurant. Pubs shut. Restaurants. Cinemas. Cafes. Museums. Any business that cannot feasibly do 2m distancing shut. Thats what he's announcing.

    Then we have schools. Schools are not reopening. A few kids at a time part time means that parents cannot work as no school or nursery. Nor can they hand kids to their parents as they're largely kept in at least semi-isolation. No staff means no business - it was a lack of staff availability which throttled tube services as was reported at the time in the trade.

    You say "should be required to provide a normal service". OK. Lets take a bus where 2m distancing is required. How many people get on it? Forget the economics as all public transport will be paid for by the government into the future - how practically does it work? Why do you think WFH is staying in place?

    Stop chanting political slogans and *think*
    I expect Boris to lay out a clear plan for most businesses to reopen from around 1 June. And ideally to set out an outline timetable for others such as gyms, pubs etc which will reopen later. This isn't 'chanting political slogans'. It's getting people back to work to save the economy.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    MaxPB said:

    Just reading about the unfolding disaster that is the NHS app. I think this mistake adds an extra two weeks to the lockdown. Is Matt Hancock going to refund the treasury the additional tens of billions his idiotic decisions have cost so far?

    THey should just check with pb, lots of us with different bents on the pandemic/lockdown are seeing this coming like a slow motion train wreck.
    Apple and Google aren't perfect but if you want something NOW that will work, and crucially be internationally fungible (Given we seem to have no will or desire to control our airspace) they're the only game in town.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    Given that most of the five tests have now morphed into "ensure our NHS is not overwhelmed" I hope they note that the Nightingales are there and presumably available if currently mothballed.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Absolutely. Our High Streets may never recover from this as retail centres. We need to prioritise changes of use wherever possible.
    Maybe, on the other hand the banks will begin to reposses properties where loans repayments have been missed and then sell them on for much less than the current value, creating a new baseline for rental yield. We could see a gigantic correction in commercial rental value and in some cases small business owners buying their own freehold.

    Property investment has finally become seriously risky after years of lazy fatcat landlords leeching from society. It's not an unwelcome change.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Absolutely. Our High Streets may never recover from this as retail centres. We need to prioritise changes of use wherever possible.
    Our IFA told us he'd got all his clients out of property about a year ago.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,357

    HYUFD said:

    The Queen has phoned her PM to congratulate him on his success in fighting Covid, she phoned Australian PM Scott Morrison last night

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288797/Queen-calls-Scott-Morrison-congratulate-Australia-success-fighting-coronavirus.html

    “her PM”... vomit.
    Crass comment again by HYUFD.

    Aussies would use much more colourful language in their response
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    This pandemic is showing the piss poor standard of UK journalists in the 21st century. From those who announce a topic with a criticism of the government to those who are simply ignorant of everything which happens beyond the M25.

    The UK has the highest Covid-19 death toll outside the USA they all proclaimed yesterday! Has it? We are trying to record ALL deaths and in Scotland that includes deaths where a GP has said on the death certificate that Covid-19 MAY have contributed to the death. Are France, Spain and Italy announcing the numbers for ALL Covid-19 deaths or just hospital deaths on confirmed Covid-19 patients? We haven't had overrun hospitals like Spain and Italy. Indeed most of the Nightingales have lain empty thank goodness.

    Struan Stevenson the ex-Tory MEP told me only yesterday that the Covid-19 death toll in Iran far exceeds 50,000 but the country is only reporting 6,340. Ecuador has shown news footage of bodies being abandoned in the streets similar to plague scenes here in the 14th century but its official death toll is 1,569. China has admitted it understated deaths by around 50% but it is still shown as having only 4,633 deaths. Around the world there could easily be in excess of 1 million deaths but British journalists and politicians who haven't forgiven the Tories for winning the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election rush to proclaim failure on the part of our Government instead of talking up the success of the NHS in coping and the Government led logistics which, in spite of problems with some PPE has kept everything going.

    Probably in 1940 these same journalists had they been alive would have been proclaiming the disastrous defeat in France instead of applauding the success in a flotilla of ships and little boats plucking almost one-third of a million men from the beaches of Dunkirk and the heroism of the 51st Highland Division in holding off the Germans to enable the rescue to take place!

    It is important, imo, to have journalists challenge the government on any and every aspect of their handling of this crisis. Some questions will be acute, others off-target. Doesn't matter. The aim is to not allow the government any room to obfuscate or dissemble. If they know that every move will be dissected with the consequences painted all over the front pages then they will weigh up very carefully their moves and likely choose policies aimed at the good of the nation rather than the good of themselves.

    What would you have the journalists do otherwise? Stand up when Boris comes into the room, keep quiet, and give him a round of applause?
    I would like them to ask more informed questions highlighting areas of concern. Why on earth have we been so out of step on international travel, for example? Why are we trying to reinvent the wheel in relation to the NHS app? What safeguards are there going to be in respect of that data (making it inadmissible for any other purpose might be a start). What is being done about the vulnerable children who are supposed to be turning up at the hubs and have not been seen? A friend of my daughter is a teacher and has not seen several such children once in 6 weeks. One she is so concerned about she has offered to go and see him herself. Social Work say they don't have the right forms yet. Presumably a risk assessment? There is a horror story to come on such children.

    In short there are lots of real issues, lots of areas of concern, lots of room for differences of view. What we get instead is the usual banalities of political journalists interested in who's up, who's down, whether they can contrive a gotcha and a really, really deep failure to understand the numbers, even by those who should know better (Conway and Peston, for example). Its frustrating.
    As I have said, the journalists ask questions they think their public want to be asked.

    And you will be delighted to learn that you (and @another_richard) are not the only people in the UK to have noticed the air travel seeming anomaly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/just-273-people-arriving-in-uk-in-run-up-to-lockdown-quarantined
    I don't think trace and isolate is going to be viable if tens of thousands continue to come into the country with no controls and no restrictions on movement etc. Certainly not in our most vulnerable areas like London where most of them will be. It's madness.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    The biggest criticism to be levelled at the govt imo is their failure to enlist PB contributors to:

    a) dictate the timing and terms of the lockdown;
    b) build the track and trace app; and
    c) ask all the questions at the daily prezzers.

    A huge error.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,357

    Totally O/t, but excitement in the Cole household this morning. Not only is it the Patriarch's birthday, but our blue-tit has hatched, we think, eight chicks. Can't get a decent photo at the moment as the sun is in the 'wrong' place vis a vis the nestbox opening.

    How wonderful

    Our three robins flew their nests in our greenhouse two days ago

    And happy birthday
  • Options
    coachcoach Posts: 250
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Absolutely. Our High Streets may never recover from this as retail centres. We need to prioritise changes of use wherever possible.
    Maybe, on the other hand the banks will begin to reposses properties where loans repayments have been missed and then sell them on for much less than the current value, creating a new baseline for rental yield. We could see a gigantic correction in commercial rental value and in some cases small business owners buying their own freehold.

    Property investment has finally become seriously risky after years of lazy fatcat landlords leeching from society. It's not an unwelcome change.
    Let's hope so, every ten years or so we get a break from the bores that are desperate to tell us how much their house is worth. And more first time buyers get the chance to buy a place of their own.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    However you slice it this country will always be amongst the biggest in Europe. Nothing new there.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    MaxPB said:

    Just reading about the unfolding disaster that is the NHS app. I think this mistake adds an extra two weeks to the lockdown. Is Matt Hancock going to refund the treasury the additional tens of billions his idiotic decisions have cost so far?

    As I posted elsewhere - the problem with giving the app to a firm that doesn't specialise in Mobile development is that they wouldn't know the issues until it was too late. And no honest mobile development house would have taken the project because they knew the project was impossible.

    Now it does seem that the software house knows there is an issue with the software and has a fix. But that fix is the sort of workaround you would do while saying if happens once in a while, while knowing it's every ten minutes but we aren't going to tell you that until you've signed acceptance off.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    TOPPING said:

    The biggest criticism to be levelled at the govt imo is their failure to enlist PB contributors to:

    a) dictate the timing and terms of the lockdown;
    b) build the track and trace app; and
    c) ask all the questions at the daily prezzers.

    A huge error.

    Tbh, the government has been wrong on the timing of the lockdown, continued flights into the UK, locking the private sector out of testing, locking the private sector out of the app.

    Nothing in that was difficult to predict either.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Absolutely. Our High Streets may never recover from this as retail centres. We need to prioritise changes of use wherever possible.
    Maybe, on the other hand the banks will begin to reposses properties where loans repayments have been missed and then sell them on for much less than the current value, creating a new baseline for rental yield. We could see a gigantic correction in commercial rental value and in some cases small business owners buying their own freehold.

    Property investment has finally become seriously risky after years of lazy fatcat landlords leeching from society. It's not an unwelcome change.
    There will be changes. My daughter is currently being trained by Tescos to work on their home delivery call centre. Last week they delivered over 1m packages of groceries, about 5x what they do at Christmas. The waiting time for a slot is 3 weeks despite giving priority to the vulnerable. This will ease off but home delivery is likely to be at a massively enhanced level going forward. Our High Streets depend on leisure for much of their footfall. If restaurants and bars remain shut how will the bakers and butchers survive?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Totally O/t, but excitement in the Cole household this morning. Not only is it the Patriarch's birthday, but our blue-tit has hatched, we think, eight chicks. Can't get a decent photo at the moment as the sun is in the 'wrong' place vis a vis the nestbox opening.

    How wonderful

    Our three robins flew their nests in our greenhouse two days ago

    And happy birthday
    Thank you. It's a very odd birthday.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    edited May 2020
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    The biggest criticism to be levelled at the govt imo is their failure to enlist PB contributors to:

    a) dictate the timing and terms of the lockdown;
    b) build the track and trace app; and
    c) ask all the questions at the daily prezzers.

    A huge error.

    Tbh, the government has been wrong on the timing of the lockdown, continued flights into the UK, locking the private sector out of testing, locking the private sector out of the app.

    Nothing in that was difficult to predict either.
    Supposedly the software has been written by VMWare Pivotal Labs, a firm that does so much mobile development I cannot see it mentioned on their website.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Absolutely. Our High Streets may never recover from this as retail centres. We need to prioritise changes of use wherever possible.
    Maybe, on the other hand the banks will begin to reposses properties where loans repayments have been missed and then sell them on for much less than the current value, creating a new baseline for rental yield. We could see a gigantic correction in commercial rental value and in some cases small business owners buying their own freehold.

    Property investment has finally become seriously risky after years of lazy fatcat landlords leeching from society. It's not an unwelcome change.
    There will be changes. My daughter is currently being trained by Tescos to work on their home delivery call centre. Last week they delivered over 1m packages of groceries, about 5x what they do at Christmas. The waiting time for a slot is 3 weeks despite giving priority to the vulnerable. This will ease off but home delivery is likely to be at a massively enhanced level going forward. Our High Streets depend on leisure for much of their footfall. If restaurants and bars remain shut how will the bakers and butchers survive?
    Bakers and butchers need to get into home delivery too for now.

    Butchers probably have a better chance.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,319
    Ave_it said:

    I expect Boris to lay out a clear plan for most businesses to reopen from around 1 June. And ideally to set out an outline timetable for others such as gyms, pubs etc which will reopen later. This isn't 'chanting political slogans'. It's getting people back to work to save the economy.

    So about social distancing...

    You are insisting that we all go back to normal at the end of the month. Despite the ongoing pandemic. Despite the government's own medical advisory team. Despite the massive public support for the lockdown and the obvious public fear about going out that won't be swept away by one Boris speech.

    Why are you insisting this? Because "Withdrawing the furlough will encourage people to stand on their own feet" - a political slogan. I understand the economic wrecking this is causing and all the non-CV19 medical crises also happening. But the notion that we just drop everything and restore status quo ante is at best hilarious and at worst a deeply cycnical throwing under the bus of people's health for political zealotry. Like Donald Trump.

  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,914

    Alistair said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

    His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.
    His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.
    It shows he doesn't really, really, really think that lockdown is a sensible (or effective) measure.

    And he has shown this quite elegantly.
    The lockdown has definitely been effective at lowering the transmission rate.
    Of course it has. But what was the cost/benefit?
    As the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown then surely the pre lockdown advice had the bigger impact.
    Ah, so when you said you wanted us to pay attention to and debate that graph what you actually meant was you wanted us to uncritically accept it as true as it backed up your dogmatic preconceived view.

    Did you even read and process any of the criticism of that chart? Did you read and process any of the criticism of the person who produced the chart?
    Its based on the hospital admissions data which showed that these peaked on the 2nd April 2020. So working back from that date gives a peak of infections around the 20th March. Its quite simple really. Its not a dogmatic preconceived view, its based on facts. Of course you may argue that the hospital admissions data has nothing to do with the rate of infection.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1257714061250265090?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8676/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-road-from-glencassley-the-last-horse-to-win-a-uk-race/p1
    Here's a simplified example to show why you can't just subtract average to find the peak.

    11 days (which I think is time from infection to hospitalization) is an average.
    Let's imagine hospitalization after infection ranges from 7 - 13 days.

    Imagine there were no new infections on 23rd March. When would we start seeing a reduction in hospitalizations? We would see it 7 days after the change.

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
    I suggest you get a better prescription on your glasses then. The government's management of the first stage of this health crisis has been disastrous, the more reprehensible because Britain was not in the first wave.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,508
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just reading about the unfolding disaster that is the NHS app. I think this mistake adds an extra two weeks to the lockdown. Is Matt Hancock going to refund the treasury the additional tens of billions his idiotic decisions have cost so far?

    THey should just check with pb, lots of us with different bents on the pandemic/lockdown are seeing this coming like a slow motion train wreck.
    Apple and Google aren't perfect but if you want something NOW that will work, and crucially be internationally fungible (Given we seem to have no will or desire to control our airspace) they're the only game in town.
    There is also the question which perhaps the government has not asked itself, of what is the actual purpose of the track and trace app? Do we need it at all, especially if it will not report our every movement back to PHE HQ?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,357
    Amazing.

    Just looked at flight radar and not a plane crossing the Irish sea at this moment
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,370
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ave_it said:

    And we need to stop furlough after 30 June except for those businesses which legally cannot operate eg pubs.

    A lengthy list just in hospitality, and don't forget all of the supply and support businesses below them who have no customers. Unless you extend the scheme to the wholesalers and the cleaners and the service companies and the suppliers then you'll not be able to reopen restaurants as they won't be able to get food to cook.

    So thats hospitality. As the guidance remains WFH unless you cannot, that means public transport not running fully as you cannot social distance people on trains buses and planes. Which is all their staff, their support staff, the businesses who sell stuff to the people who use public transport.

    Schools and nurseries? Can't reopen as you can't socially distance kids. A possible limited part time reopening is in the offing. I'd already covered wholesalers who supply school meals in the first paragraph, but as kids aren't going back their parents can't go back regardless of the sector they work in. Nor can you say "get the grandparents to look after them whilst you work" as they are in the protected group.

    Etc etc. Its not as simple as "end the furlough scheme" when so many people will be unable to return to work. And thats to say nothing of businesses who will be thrown under the bus by "restaurants can reopen for takeaway only" which means no support which means they fail. With March rents barely paid it seems unlikely that June rents will be paid, so expect an avalanche of insolvencies from mid-June onwards...
    Surely public transport needs to open as fully as possible to enable those who have to travel to work to do so as safely as possible. One of the things that caused overcrowding on the Tube at the beginning of lockdown was the reduction in serviced
    Transport is going to be the biggest problem to solve, especially in the larger cities. White-collar staff in London are going to be WFH for probably the rest of the year, and an awful lot of companies will be looking at the whole business model of having thousands of people spend several hours a day and a lot of their income to all congregate together in the most expensive offices in the country.

    The Tube, even running a full service (which the Unions and their Mayor don't want to do) barely provides enough capacity for the blue-collar and key workers, without serious overcrowding.
    Commercial property letting seems like a real bad game to be in at the moment.
    Absolutely. Our High Streets may never recover from this as retail centres. We need to prioritise changes of use wherever possible.
    Maybe, on the other hand the banks will begin to reposses properties where loans repayments have been missed and then sell them on for much less than the current value, creating a new baseline for rental yield. We could see a gigantic correction in commercial rental value and in some cases small business owners buying their own freehold.

    Property investment has finally become seriously risky after years of lazy fatcat landlords leeching from society. It's not an unwelcome change.
    Many of these "lazy fatcat landlords" are in fact our pension funds who have tried to use property as a better paying gilt. Such funds are going to get very badly burned, I'm afraid.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    The biggest criticism to be levelled at the govt imo is their failure to enlist PB contributors to:

    a) dictate the timing and terms of the lockdown;
    b) build the track and trace app; and
    c) ask all the questions at the daily prezzers.

    A huge error.

    Tbh, the government has been wrong on the timing of the lockdown, continued flights into the UK, locking the private sector out of testing, locking the private sector out of the app.

    Nothing in that was difficult to predict either.
    Supposedly the software has been written by VMWare Pivotal Labs, a firm that does so much mobile development I cannot see it mentioned on their website.
    I think that's just an off the shelf appify your software solution.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
    Those tens of thousands of deaths are nothing to do with the virus. They are caused solely by the Tories, don't yer know?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
    I suggest you get a better prescription on your glasses then. The government's management of the first stage of this health crisis has been disastrous, the more reprehensible because Britain was not in the first wave.
    On a life-for-like basis our excess deaths seem to be much better than Belgium, Italy and Spain, comparable to France and much worse than Germany. Middle of the road.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Amazing.

    Just looked at flight radar and not a plane crossing the Irish sea at this moment

    The passengers are all waiting to pile onto one....
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,844
    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    The comparison with Italy article on the BBC website last night was good, and I think it is clear we may not currently have the worst death toll in Europe on a comparable basis. Indeed thinking like that is not useful, and I think the best description of the UKs COVID situation is that it is broadly comparable with a bunch of Western European countries - e.g. Spain, France, Italy, Benelux, whilst clearly worse than others: Germany, most of Scandinavia, Austria, Portugal, Greece.

    Although there will be slightly different lessons for each country, the overriding common one should be to make damn sure that your test, track, trace and isolate works to suppress case numbers, and that the your ongoing social distancing should be geared as a supporting factor around ensuring it does.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    The biggest criticism to be levelled at the govt imo is their failure to enlist PB contributors to:

    a) dictate the timing and terms of the lockdown;
    b) build the track and trace app; and
    c) ask all the questions at the daily prezzers.

    A huge error.

    Tbh, the government has been wrong on the timing of the lockdown, continued flights into the UK, locking the private sector out of testing, locking the private sector out of the app.

    Nothing in that was difficult to predict either.
    Supposedly the software has been written by VMWare Pivotal Labs, a firm that does so much mobile development I cannot see it mentioned on their website.
    What chance that they designed the whole thing from the backend surveillance requirements first and foremost, then did the 'easy' consumer mobile app as an afterthought - failing to realise that what they needed it to do was technically impossible?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,028
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    The biggest criticism to be levelled at the govt imo is their failure to enlist PB contributors to:

    a) dictate the timing and terms of the lockdown;
    b) build the track and trace app; and
    c) ask all the questions at the daily prezzers.

    A huge error.

    Tbh, the government has been wrong on the timing of the lockdown, continued flights into the UK, locking the private sector out of testing, locking the private sector out of the app.

    Nothing in that was difficult to predict either.
    Obviously nobody knows less about this stuff than me but even I know that the NHS are crap at this spoddy neckbeard stuff and Apple/Google are not crap at it.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,618

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
    I suggest you get a better prescription on your glasses then. The government's management of the first stage of this health crisis has been disastrous, the more reprehensible because Britain was not in the first wave.
    On a life-for-like basis our excess deaths seem to be much better than Belgium, Italy and Spain, comparable to France and much worse than Germany. Middle of the road.
    Those countries all have gigantic land borders that are impossible to close fully. What's our excuse?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
    I suggest you get a better prescription on your glasses then. The government's management of the first stage of this health crisis has been disastrous, the more reprehensible because Britain was not in the first wave.
    Nope, this war not a one off battle. If we had locked down on Day 1 it wouldn't have solved anything because the virus is out there and without a vaccine until 60-80% of the population have had the disease it's going to be a major issue.

    As Bill Gates stated the only time we will know which countries had the correct approach will be in hindsight when this is over. Until then except for untested people being sent into Care Homes (and that's a local level NHS issue as much as anything else) it's been a question of timing. And shutting things earlier is something that might have made things worse later.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:

    I expect Boris to lay out a clear plan for most businesses to reopen from around 1 June. And ideally to set out an outline timetable for others such as gyms, pubs etc which will reopen later. This isn't 'chanting political slogans'. It's getting people back to work to save the economy.

    So about social distancing...

    You are insisting that we all go back to normal at the end of the month. Despite the ongoing pandemic. Despite the government's own medical advisory team. Despite the massive public support for the lockdown and the obvious public fear about going out that won't be swept away by one Boris speech.

    Why are you insisting this? Because "Withdrawing the furlough will encourage people to stand on their own feet" - a political slogan. I understand the economic wrecking this is causing and all the non-CV19 medical crises also happening. But the notion that we just drop everything and restore status quo ante is at best hilarious and at worst a deeply cycnical throwing under the bus of people's health for political zealotry. Like Donald Trump.

    I didn't say anything about 'going back to normal' on 1 June although I wish we could! Boris needs to set out a plan which reflects the need for social distancing at this time but which also enables the economy to restart. We can't all sit on welfare which furlough is effectively part of, forever.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
    I suggest you get a better prescription on your glasses then. The government's management of the first stage of this health crisis has been disastrous, the more reprehensible because Britain was not in the first wave.
    Nope, this war not a one off battle. If we had locked down on Day 1 it wouldn't have solved anything because the virus is out there and without a vaccine until 60-80% of the population have had the disease it's going to be a major issue.

    As Bill Gates stated the only time we will know which countries had the correct approach will be in hindsight when this is over. Until then except for untested people being sent into Care Homes (and that's a local level NHS issue as much as anything else) it's been a question of timing. And shutting things earlier is something that might have made things worse later.
    Put another way, as at this stage would you rather be in the position Britain finds itself in or the position Germany finds itself in?
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,319
    DavidL said:

    There will be changes. My daughter is currently being trained by Tescos to work on their home delivery call centre. Last week they delivered over 1m packages of groceries, about 5x what they do at Christmas. The waiting time for a slot is 3 weeks despite giving priority to the vulnerable. This will ease off but home delivery is likely to be at a massively enhanced level going forward. Our High Streets depend on leisure for much of their footfall. If restaurants and bars remain shut how will the bakers and butchers survive?

    All of the supermarkets have done a significant amount of very fast work rapidly expanding home delivery. But this presents a Major Problem for them. Home delivery loses them all money on every single drop. Click and collect a smaller loss. So a huge expansion of this presents a major issue as they are going to spend a large amount of cash driving a business model which reduces their income.

    When you shop in a supermarket you are marketed to constantly. People usually have a shopping list. The store needs to make you buy things not on the list, so it offers things that aren't on your list in your path - the power aisle you have to walk up with mega deals, the gondola ends offering deals and enticing you down an aisle that wasn't on your list. Very very hard to get those additional sales online. So they're reducing the amount they are selling to you AND increasing their cost to serve.

    Nor does shutting stores / switching to dark stores help. A dark store still has the same staff mechandising stock onto shelves for the pickers to add to order tubs / trollies. And then the loss-making delivery at the end...

  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    The biggest criticism to be levelled at the govt imo is their failure to enlist PB contributors to:

    a) dictate the timing and terms of the lockdown;
    b) build the track and trace app; and
    c) ask all the questions at the daily prezzers.

    A huge error.

    Tbh, the government has been wrong on the timing of the lockdown, continued flights into the UK, locking the private sector out of testing, locking the private sector out of the app.

    Nothing in that was difficult to predict either.
    Supposedly the software has been written by VMWare Pivotal Labs, a firm that does so much mobile development I cannot see it mentioned on their website.
    What chance that they designed the whole thing from the backend surveillance requirements first and foremost, then did the 'easy' consumer mobile app as an afterthought - failing to realise that what they needed it to do was technically impossible?
    Given the software house involved, your answer will be the same as mine (very high).
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
    I suggest you get a better prescription on your glasses then. The government's management of the first stage of this health crisis has been disastrous, the more reprehensible because Britain was not in the first wave.
    On a life-for-like basis our excess deaths seem to be much better than Belgium, Italy and Spain, comparable to France and much worse than Germany. Middle of the road.
    Those countries all have gigantic land borders that are impossible to close fully. What's our excuse?
    We're a globalised, modern, interconnected nation.
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,351
    rkrkrk said:

    Alistair said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyway Prof Ferguson has been found and swiftly tried and found guilty in the court of public opinion for breaking the rules just as the Scottish Chief Medical Officer was. He's yesterday's news. Today's news is still the lack of restrictions on flights and the looming app disaster.

    His modelling isn't yesterday's news though. It is still being used to guide our lockdown strategy. Swedish experts say it is effectively nonsense.
    His own breaking of the rules/hypocrisy has nothing to do with how good or not his model is, that's another discussion entirely.
    It shows he doesn't really, really, really think that lockdown is a sensible (or effective) measure.

    And he has shown this quite elegantly.
    The lockdown has definitely been effective at lowering the transmission rate.
    Of course it has. But what was the cost/benefit?
    As the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown then surely the pre lockdown advice had the bigger impact.
    Ah, so when you said you wanted us to pay attention to and debate that graph what you actually meant was you wanted us to uncritically accept it as true as it backed up your dogmatic preconceived view.

    Did you even read and process any of the criticism of that chart? Did you read and process any of the criticism of the person who produced the chart?
    Its based on the hospital admissions data which showed that these peaked on the 2nd April 2020. So working back from that date gives a peak of infections around the 20th March. Its quite simple really. Its not a dogmatic preconceived view, its based on facts. Of course you may argue that the hospital admissions data has nothing to do with the rate of infection.

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1257714061250265090?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8676/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-the-road-from-glencassley-the-last-horse-to-win-a-uk-race/p1
    Here's a simplified example to show why you can't just subtract average to find the peak.

    11 days (which I think is time from infection to hospitalization) is an average.
    Let's imagine hospitalization after infection ranges from 7 - 13 days.

    Imagine there were no new infections on 23rd March. When would we start seeing a reduction in hospitalizations? We would see it 7 days after the change.

    I realise you can't get a precise date but as the peak of hospital admissions was on the 2nd April then the peak of infections was sometime around the 20th March, it can't be much different to that. This also shows that we were in the first wave of infections as the virus was raging here in January & February
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    At 6.00am on 5 live Rachel Burden opened with the worst deaths in Europe headline then provided the fairest and balanced commentary on the figures I have yet to hear. Maybe it a result of the 'BBC fact check' report on their website, which explains the dangers of relying on Europe comparisons and that a mature debate on the comparable death rates, not only here and in Europe but across the world will happen in the fulness of time. Indeed in discussion with her co presenter, Nicky Campbell, it seems that most texts they received from the public did not think the comparisons were reliable

    Mistakes were made in the early days, but I think Sage and Cobra's single objective was to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this they succeeded. It is clear they did not have the testing capability and ideally lockdown should have happened a week or ten days earlier

    However, in discussing this with Jonathan Ashworth this morning on Sky, even Kay Burley, (yes Kay Burley) said 'Hindsight is a wonderful thing'

    That sounds like, finally, credit where it's due. Maybe at least some of the media are slowly waking up to the actual public mood outside their own rarified little bubble.
    Credit for what are, no matter how you slice it, among the worst numbers in Europe?
    Credit to the journalists, for finally realising their daily inanity of political point scoring was going down like a bucket of cold sick with the public.
    So the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths are just to be ignored?
    I'm not seeing tens of thousands of avoidable deaths. I'm seeing tens of thousands of pandemic deaths in almost every major nation - and comparable numbers in almost every minor one.
    I suggest you get a better prescription on your glasses then. The government's management of the first stage of this health crisis has been disastrous, the more reprehensible because Britain was not in the first wave.
    Nope, this war not a one off battle. If we had locked down on Day 1 it wouldn't have solved anything because the virus is out there and without a vaccine until 60-80% of the population have had the disease it's going to be a major issue.

    As Bill Gates stated the only time we will know which countries had the correct approach will be in hindsight when this is over. Until then except for untested people being sent into Care Homes (and that's a local level NHS issue as much as anything else) it's been a question of timing. And shutting things earlier is something that might have made things worse later.
    Put another way, as at this stage would you rather be in the position Britain finds itself in or the position Germany finds itself in?
    How do you get to be in Germany's position without Germany's prior healthcare system? And prior manufacturing system? And acceptance of reliance on the private sector for testing?
This discussion has been closed.