The only way I see the government funding this in a way remotely acceptable to the public is by printing money or expressly defaulting on debts. Printing money is probably more palatable.
Now might be a very good time to fix mortgage deals.
If you have no.mortgage and banks are thieving from customers by offering 0.1% interest on your money, creating money is like to be very inflationary ... and you cannot afford to risk the stockmarket...someone like me is gonna get stuffed.... bigtime.
You can get 0.7% with overnight access from NS&I. Not great but a bit better.
I do not think that there is any doubt that COvid-19 is going to result in a significant reduction in international trade and investment. Even the UK, which has determinedly remained open to the world when most have shut their doors, is likely to impose quarantine restrictions soon. This will make international travel, already heading to much greater costs due to low occupancy rates, prohibitively expensive.
I also do not doubt that there is considerable anger with China arising from both the source of the virus and the lies told about it. But Alastair is wrong to say that this is a UK thing, it is not. What we will see is a lot of foreign manufacturing moving out of China. Most of that will belong to the US, our investments are somewhat smaller. There will be a desire to have shorter lines of supply and import substitution is going to be important.
The idea that the UK will be in the vanguard of this is wrong but we will no doubt play our small part. To take the voices arguing for this as evidence of a uniquely Britannia approach is wrong, they are a part of a much broader conversation.
This will matter to China but probably not as much as we think it will. They have critical mass in their own economy and in their economic sphere of influence.
The world will quietly adopt, without any formal policy ever being announced, a buy China last approach.
No they won't. People will continue to buy whatever is cheapest.
The questions then are:
1. By how much the China Research Group will have to convince HMG to increase tariffs on China by so that Chinese goods are no longer the cheapest?
2. How much trade we will lose due to retaliatory tariffs from China?
3. In aggregate how much will that cost?
4. Are the benefits of shifting trade away from China, and hopefully towards democracies such as India, as well as domestically, worth the costs?
My instinctive thoughts are that I wish the CRG more success than I ever wished the ERG.
Another point that they probably havent considered as it is more than one step ahead which is difficult for them.
If the EU know we are about to cut trade with China, and that internal US politics makes a UK-US trade deal impossible there, it massively strengthens their hand in UK-EU negotiations. Even if we refuse a deal now, sooner or later we will be forced back to the EU as it will be our only option left.
That would be to make the mistake of assuming dispassionate rationality on our part, but so much of politics is governed by passion that a lengthy period of stubborn isolation on Britain's part, leavened by an optimistic view of what can be achieved by a re-engagement with the Commonwealth, would be a much more likely result of a hardball stance from the EU.
I agree that will be the first response and probably the EU would be expecting that. How long would/can stubborn isolation last? And how long do the EU expect it would last?
My guess is that the stubborn isolation would last longer than the EU would expect it to last - they've been quite bewildered by British actions throughout the Brexit saga. My record on political forecasting is nothing to brag about even on a pseudonymous politics blog, though, so easy to see how I might be wrong - Sinophobia might prove to be a much more effective rallying call than Europhilia for those in England wanting to avoid burning all our bridges across the Channel.
MAybe Covid-19 has caused those deaths in people who had not been tested.
I’d have thought so. I haven’t actually read the article yet!
It’s worth reading, though I suspect the statistical variations are more an indication of variations in behaviour of doctors. There’s nothing in there that makes me think the measures are causing a lot of excess deaths. At the moment I’d say any premature deaths are probably among the very elderly (not that that makes it okay).
If the measures are to have an impact on younger people, say cancer patients, any detrimental impact will take longer to show itself in the statistics.
I do not think that there is any doubt that COvid-19 is going to result in a significant reduction in international trade and investment. Even the UK, which has determinedly remained open to the world when most have shut their doors, is likely to impose quarantine restrictions soon. This will make international travel, already heading to much greater costs due to low occupancy rates, prohibitively expensive.
I also do not doubt that there is considerable anger with China arising from both the source of the virus and the lies told about it. But Alastair is wrong to say that this is a UK thing, it is not. What we will see is a lot of foreign manufacturing moving out of China. Most of that will belong to the US, our investments are somewhat smaller. There will be a desire to have shorter lines of supply and import substitution is going to be important.
The idea that the UK will be in the vanguard of this is wrong but we will no doubt play our small part. To take the voices arguing for this as evidence of a uniquely Britannia approach is wrong, they are a part of a much broader conversation.
This will matter to China but probably not as much as we think it will. They have critical mass in their own economy and in their economic sphere of influence.
The world will quietly adopt, without any formal policy ever being announced, a buy China last approach.
No they won't. People will continue to buy whatever is cheapest.
I do think you are wrong on this. It tis difficult to get any sort of accurate picture under lockdown, I admit. But in those conversations I have had, there does seem to be a mood abroad that China should suffer for lying about the extent of the Covid-19 epidemic they were suffering, closing down their own medical staff from raising the alarm - and thereby not instilling in the outside world the much earlier level of action this virus required.
I suspect that will be much more strongly felt in the US. I could see "Buy Chinese last" becoming an overt movement over there.
Sad to sa,y but when two similar products are put next to each other the shop shelves, the majority of people choose the product with the lower price tag, even when the more expensive one is obviously better value.
This interesting wee snippet is the ur version of one of the top 5 rubbish anti indy arguments, ie why give up all the freedom you have now to place yourself under the oppressive yoke of the EU, with socialist London taking the place of Brussels. Also proof were it needed that old Winny could spout copious amounts of lavishly tooled keich.
I do not think that there is any doubt that COvid-19 is going to result in a significant reduction in international trade and investment. Even the UK, which has determinedly remained open to the world when most have shut their doors, is likely to impose quarantine restrictions soon. This will make international travel, already heading to much greater costs due to low occupancy rates, prohibitively expensive.
I also do not doubt that there is considerable anger with China arising from both the source of the virus and the lies told about it. But Alastair is wrong to say that this is a UK thing, it is not. What we will see is a lot of foreign manufacturing moving out of China. Most of that will belong to the US, our investments are somewhat smaller. There will be a desire to have shorter lines of supply and import substitution is going to be important.
The idea that the UK will be in the vanguard of this is wrong but we will no doubt play our small part. To take the voices arguing for this as evidence of a uniquely Britannia approach is wrong, they are a part of a much broader conversation.
This will matter to China but probably not as much as we think it will. They have critical mass in their own economy and in their economic sphere of influence.
The world will quietly adopt, without any formal policy ever being announced, a buy China last approach.
No they won't. People will continue to buy whatever is cheapest.
The questions then are:
1. By how much the China Research Group will have to convince HMG to increase tariffs on China by so that Chinese goods are no longer the cheapest?
2. How much trade we will lose due to retaliatory tariffs from China?
3. In aggregate how much will that cost?
4. Are the benefits of shifting trade away from China, and hopefully towards democracies such as India, as well as domestically, worth the costs?
My instinctive thoughts are that I wish the CRG more success than I ever wished the ERG.
Another point that they probably havent considered as it is more than one step ahead which is difficult for them.
If the EU know we are about to cut trade with China, and that internal US politics makes a UK-US trade deal impossible there, it massively strengthens their hand in UK-EU negotiations. Even if we refuse a deal now, sooner or later we will be forced back to the EU as it will be our only option left.
That would be to make the mistake of assuming dispassionate rationality on our part, but so much of politics is governed by passion that a lengthy period of stubborn isolation on Britain's part, leavened by an optimistic view of what can be achieved by a re-engagement with the Commonwealth, would be a much more likely result of a hardball stance from the EU.
I agree that will be the first response and probably the EU would be expecting that. How long would/can stubborn isolation last? And how long do the EU expect it would last?
My guess is that the stubborn isolation would last longer than the EU would expect it to last - they've been quite bewildered by British actions throughout the Brexit saga. My record on political forecasting is nothing to brag about even on a pseudonymous politics blog, though, so easy to see how I might be wrong - Sinophobia might prove to be a much more effective rallying call than Europhilia for those in England wanting to avoid burning all our bridges across the Channel.
I dont particularly disagree, but I think even if the govt wants to position itself as anti China it should have waited a couple of months until after the EU negotiations are done as it will lessen our chances of getting what we want with the EU.
I do not think that there is any doubt that COvid-19 is going to result in a significant reduction in international trade and investment. Even the UK, which has determinedly remained open to the world when most have shut their doors, is likely to impose quarantine restrictions soon. This will make international travel, already heading to much greater costs due to low occupancy rates, prohibitively expensive.
I also do not doubt that there is considerable anger with China arising from both the source of the virus and the lies told about it. But Alastair is wrong to say that this is a UK thing, it is not. What we will see is a lot of foreign manufacturing moving out of China. Most of that will belong to the US, our investments are somewhat smaller. There will be a desire to have shorter lines of supply and import substitution is going to be important.
The idea that the UK will be in the vanguard of this is wrong but we will no doubt play our small part. To take the voices arguing for this as evidence of a uniquely Britannia approach is wrong, they are a part of a much broader conversation.
This will matter to China but probably not as much as we think it will. They have critical mass in their own economy and in their economic sphere of influence.
The world will quietly adopt, without any formal policy ever being announced, a buy China last approach.
No they won't. People will continue to buy whatever is cheapest.
The questions then are:
1. By how much the China Research Group will have to convince HMG to increase tariffs on China by so that Chinese goods are no longer the cheapest?
2. How much trade we will lose due to retaliatory tariffs from China?
3. In aggregate how much will that cost?
4. Are the benefits of shifting trade away from China, and hopefully towards democracies such as India, as well as domestically, worth the costs?
My instinctive thoughts are that I wish the CRG more success than I ever wished the ERG.
Another point that they probably havent considered as it is more than one step ahead which is difficult for them.
If the EU know we are about to cut trade with China, and that internal US politics makes a UK-US trade deal impossible there, it massively strengthens their hand in UK-EU negotiations. Even if we refuse a deal now, sooner or later we will be forced back to the EU as it will be our only option left.
That would be to make the mistake of assuming dispassionate rationality on our part, but so much of politics is governed by passion that a lengthy period of stubborn isolation on Britain's part, leavened by an optimistic view of what can be achieved by a re-engagement with the Commonwealth, would be a much more likely result of a hardball stance from the EU.
The Commonwealth are not going to doff their cap and accept being lorded over again by England, they will also tell them to GTF.
And also they are too busy being lorded over by China....
The Empire boys on here are unaware of that , they think they are just gagging to be back in the empire.
One of the problems with boycotting China is that in many very important areas for the fourth industrial revolution and IoT - 5G, AI, blockchain - they have very strong, often world-leading technology. It will be very tough to work around that.
Blockchain is one of those things that people mention in presentations at conferences, most of the audience nods sagely, and very few actually have a clue what it is. But nobody dares ask, as they think they are the only one.
Morning all. Very sharp header - reeking of "libtard globalist remainer elite" and all the better for it.
On China, I sense some "howling at the moon" about much of the negative sentiment. I recall the consensus not so long ago amongst big picture types that having completed the American century we were about to embark on the Chinese one. It was inevitable (they said). The Sleeping Giant had awoken.
Sheffield Wednesday? No - CHINA. A nation of awesome dimension. One billion people, aspirational, competitive yet co-operative, their "animal spirits" previously suppressed or channeled into self-harm, 100% pure potential energy, now releasing as kinetic, and all of it harnessed to the delivery of economic growth and soaring living standards. Unstoppable.
That is what they said this would be - the Chinese century. It rang true to me then and it still does. If anything, this made-in-China pandemic will probably reinforce and accelerate its hegemony. Cue an utterly irresistible conspiracy theory, surely?
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
The only way I see the government funding this in a way remotely acceptable to the public is by printing money or expressly defaulting on debts. Printing money is probably more palatable.
Now might be a very good time to fix mortgage deals.
If you have no.mortgage and banks are thieving from customers by offering 0.1% interest on your money, creating money is like to be very inflationary ... and you cannot afford to risk the stockmarket...someone like me is gonna get stuffed.... bigtime.
You can get 0.7% with overnight access from NS&I. Not great but a bit better.
Premium bonds not overnight but double that at 1.4% (or more like 1.2% plus 0.2% invested at a chance of a big prize).
The only way I see the government funding this in a way remotely acceptable to the public is by printing money or expressly defaulting on debts. Printing money is probably more palatable.
Now might be a very good time to fix mortgage deals.
I fixed for 5 years a few weeks back.
I have 10 years on my house and 5 years on my other place.
Fits with the Economist's piece on excess mortality. They found England+Wales were recording 68% of all pandemic-era excess deaths as covid, France 78%.
For comparison though, Spain was 65%. Slightly scarily, Netherlands was 44% (!!) and Belgium 50%.
TENTATIVE CONCLUSION: France has made mistakes in coping with Covid-19 but prevented the disease from spreading. Its daily reporting of C19 deaths seems to be reliable. Without the big outbreak in S. Alsace, caused by one church gathering, French figs might be v. different. 9/10
I am starting to think that the big difference between the different outcomes in various countries are outbreaks like the one mentioned. Which really does come down to the luck of the draw for a country. It does seem that a few outbreaks like that can be the difference between things developing like in Germany as opposed to Italy. If there is any lesson to be learnt it is perhaps that large gatherings need to be banned almost immediately when a new virus emerges; or course that would be enormously disruptive and result in a lot of a complaints when it's another SARS not another COVID-19.
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
You can get online house valuations in seconds - but they tend to have really wide ranges. I guess a lot depends on condition which would need a physical visit to ascertain.
Covid 19 may be dominating your thoughts, but mine are turning to assets that I have, property, shares, pension pot, bank deposits and so one tc.
Why? because a wealth tax may be coming. Its been floated in the Times and the Guardian in the past few days and these things are not coincidences.
The politicians are starting to look, horrified, at the numbers, and are realising they have completely bankrupted Britain for what will soon be seen as a highly questionable return.
What better way to make up for the worst policy decision in history than to steal the money from our core vote via state confiscation of assets? (as a 'one off, of course. Special situation doncha know)
You might think Johnson and co would be insane to do that. but then much the government has done in recent weeks has been completely insane.
It was Peter Hitchens who flagged this up originally and why would we believe him? well he's got so much else right about this worst of all debacles, after all
What's your plan then? Buy gold and bury it in the garden?
One of the new trends in crypto is that of the stablecoin, a crypto whose value is pegged to a fiat currency (or other real world commodity) but with the greater fungibility and censorship resistance of crypto.
It is quite easy these days to put your money out of reach of the state, and getting easier every day. That trend will accelerate greatly if the government decide to start giving everyone's savings a haircut.
I hear the govt has real difficulty tracing it if you have onecoin. The problem is the owners cant find them either!
If the rich world is retreating from globalisation, perhaps it's because the rich world's citizens no longer see globalisation as working in their interests, and politicians are now responding to that.
I wish it was true that we are retreating from globalisation but not for the reasons you state. A recalibration of life and reconnection to our local earth would be wonderful.
You are very quiet on topic. One of your mystic revelations from February is that our future lies with throwing in our lot with China...
An interesting suggestion but, alas, not one I have ever made.
What I did say is that the end result of this crisis will see the demise of the US as the world's great superpower and the emergence of Asian countries. Someone in response added India to my thesis, with which I didn't cavil.
I have seen nothing to alter my view. In fact it has strengthened a hundred-fold.
Remarkably impressive that the doctors not only correctly identified all COVID-19 deaths, but they didn’t assign COVID-19 to deaths where it wasn’t present:
i) Ex NAFTA, dominated by the USA - this is the one that orbits the USA - Canada, Mexico, Caribbean islands all are intertwined to this. ii) East Asia, dominated by China - raw materials supplied by Australia, reach into Africa. iii) EU+ incl Norway etc, the far extended Germany-France settlement of WWII.
As well as smaller ones, South America (Dominated by Brazil, South Asia (India).
You can be a semi detached member of any of them - New Zealand to the east Asia orbit for instance or Norway to the EU; but you need to work closely with one of them. And that for us is the EU. I don't think it matters so much if we're a member now, that process is painful for joining and leaving but it shares closer values, is closer geographically and is probably our best bet to trade with of the big blocks.
You forgot TPP as a fourth trading block, similar size to EU in terms of consumers plus similar mix of rich / poor countries.
Looks ideal fit for UK, trading without the political bit
It's rather astonishing that some people seem unable to understand the concept that an earlier, tighter lockdown would also have been very likely to be a shorter lockdown.
Or possibly multiple shorter lockdowns within the long wait for a vaccine.
The choices made might yet turn out to be the wrong ones, but that is not clear as of now.
The more you limit the initial outbreak, the easier it is to control subsequent ones. There a reason why S Korea, with less testing capacity than we now have, has had no deaths for the last three days - and is not in full lockdown.
(And incidentally, used regional lockdowns to excellent effect.)
This is going to be a painful experience for every country, but some will emerge with less damage than others.
Covid 19 may be dominating your thoughts, but mine are turning to assets that I have, property, shares, pension pot, bank deposits and so one tc.
Why? because a wealth tax may be coming. Its been floated in the Times and the Guardian in the past few days and these things are not coincidences.
The politicians are starting to look, horrified, at the numbers, and are realising they have completely bankrupted Britain for what will soon be seen as a highly questionable return.
What better way to make up for the worst policy decision in history than to steal the money from our core vote via state confiscation of assets? (as a 'one off, of course. Special situation doncha know)
You might think Johnson and co would be insane to do that. but then much the government has done in recent weeks has been completely insane.
It was Peter Hitchens who flagged this up originally and why would we believe him? well he's got so much else right about this worst of all debacles, after all
If you remember, in early February before all this started the possibility of Sajid Javid introducing a mansion tax was leaked to the press. It was claimed Johnson initially liked but then nixed the idea. If they wanted one then they aren't going to be shy about having one now.
What to do about It is the question though.
Hard to do when so many people are living on savings already - and plenty more will be doing so once furlough ends. If people have no income, no way of getting a job and such assets as they have are confiscated, what are they supposed to live on?
A very good question. I have no idea what the answer is.
In order to prevent this situation, the government would have had to live, for a while, with a high-ish level of daily deaths.
They would have had to tough out some awful days and terrible headlines in order to protect the British economy.
They simply could not do this. The did not have courage to sacrifice some lives now to save the country from a penury that will be worse for many, many more lives. Policy is all about keeping Adam Boulton and Piers Morgan happy.
As such, a much worse fate awaits them
You can't assume that letting Coronavirus rip, going for herd immunity, would have saved the economy. More deaths would have happened certainly but maybe people would have self isolated of their own free will but later and more damage would have been done.
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
Land value tax is a tax on the value of the land, not the properties on it.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine. One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
Squareroot as I own neither a car nor a television I'm not sure 'DIY CAR SOS' - or whatever it is called - would float my boat
Not being interested in cars might be a bit of a drawback, but the human element can draw you in, as my non-petrol headed SO would attest. The standard hook is that some beloved but ramshackle banger is restored for someone who is suffering an horrendous, sometimes terminal, illness without them knowing. The beautifully restored vehicle is returned to them to much tears and snotters.
The 'RIP X, 1955-2017' in the credits sequence can be a bit grim.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
i) Ex NAFTA, dominated by the USA - this is the one that orbits the USA - Canada, Mexico, Caribbean islands all are intertwined to this. ii) East Asia, dominated by China - raw materials supplied by Australia, reach into Africa. iii) EU+ incl Norway etc, the far extended Germany-France settlement of WWII.
As well as smaller ones, South America (Dominated by Brazil, South Asia (India).
You can be a semi detached member of any of them - New Zealand to the east Asia orbit for instance or Norway to the EU; but you need to work closely with one of them. And that for us is the EU. I don't think it matters so much if we're a member now, that process is painful for joining and leaving but it shares closer values, is closer geographically and is probably our best bet to trade with of the big blocks.
You forgot TPP as a fourth trading block, similar size to EU in terms of consumers plus similar mix of rich / poor countries.
Looks ideal fit for UK, trading without the political bit
Being nowhere near the Pacific wouldn't be a disadvantage?
On China, I sense some "howling at the moon" about much of the negative sentiment. I recall the consensus not so long ago amongst big picture types that having completed the American century we were about to embark on the Chinese one. It was inevitable (they said). The Sleeping Giant had awoken.
Maybe. Maybe not. While I think there are strong material facts that we cannot completely overcome, I do think that we have choices that can change the future.
At the beginning of the 20th century you would likely have looked at iron and steel exports and declared that the coming century would belong to Imperial Germany. Perhaps democratic India will take up a more positive mantle of world leadership, as the democratic US did in the 20th century - and hopefully without fighting two world wars.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
Which Thai University or Corporation do you expect to come up with a cure/ treatment / vaccine ?
Makes me feel homesick and sad. I can see my childhood home just to the left of the trees in the middle of the film - the Villa Communale where we played as children.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
i) Ex NAFTA, dominated by the USA - this is the one that orbits the USA - Canada, Mexico, Caribbean islands all are intertwined to this. ii) East Asia, dominated by China - raw materials supplied by Australia, reach into Africa. iii) EU+ incl Norway etc, the far extended Germany-France settlement of WWII.
As well as smaller ones, South America (Dominated by Brazil, South Asia (India).
You can be a semi detached member of any of them - New Zealand to the east Asia orbit for instance or Norway to the EU; but you need to work closely with one of them. And that for us is the EU. I don't think it matters so much if we're a member now, that process is painful for joining and leaving but it shares closer values, is closer geographically and is probably our best bet to trade with of the big blocks.
You forgot TPP as a fourth trading block, similar size to EU in terms of consumers plus similar mix of rich / poor countries.
Looks ideal fit for UK, trading without the political bit
Being nowhere near the Pacific wouldn't be a disadvantage?
They are off their nuts, Faroe Islands and a few banana republics plus getting reamed by EU will be our lot. PS: If Scotland does not have the bottle to get out of the shitshow.
Makes me feel homesick and sad. I can see my childhood home just to the left of the trees in the middle of the film - the Villa Communale where we played as children.
Nicola Sturgeon missed six emergency coronavirus Cobra meetings as the deadly virus was tightening its grip on Scotland, it has emerged.
The First Minister skipped the crucial UK Government forums but still found time to post on social media – including a video of herself playing netball with schoolchildren on the day of one top-level gathering to discuss the crisis.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been criticised for missing Cobra five times, with the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford describing his non-attendance as “jaw-dropping” negligence.
But the Sunday Mail has found Surgeon also failed to join the vital sessions until March 2 – despite the horrifying economic and health implications of the pandemic becoming increasingly clear.
Makes me feel homesick and sad. I can see my childhood home just to the left of the trees in the middle of the film - the Villa Communale where we played as children.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
Yep, but I'm not heading out to the pub for Sunday lunch nor going to the cinema as we do must late Sunday afternoons. We are not in quarantine but most people aren't actually meeting any people beyond their very immediate family.
And supermarkets couldn't cope with people going into quarantine, most people only have food and space for food for a week or so at most.
Lies printed by Tory mouthpiece you halfwit. She was doing her day job running Scotland's effort and had flunkey's at the unimportant UK meetings. Unlike Boris she was not away impregnating someone and planning how to tell his wife with cancer and his children they were not just dumped but totally out of it. PS : you sound dumb enough and nasty enough to be Murdo's dumber English alter ego. Do you run about with a sash thinking of 1690 by any chance.
i) Ex NAFTA, dominated by the USA - this is the one that orbits the USA - Canada, Mexico, Caribbean islands all are intertwined to this. ii) East Asia, dominated by China - raw materials supplied by Australia, reach into Africa. iii) EU+ incl Norway etc, the far extended Germany-France settlement of WWII.
As well as smaller ones, South America (Dominated by Brazil, South Asia (India).
You can be a semi detached member of any of them - New Zealand to the east Asia orbit for instance or Norway to the EU; but you need to work closely with one of them. And that for us is the EU. I don't think it matters so much if we're a member now, that process is painful for joining and leaving but it shares closer values, is closer geographically and is probably our best bet to trade with of the big blocks.
You forgot TPP as a fourth trading block, similar size to EU in terms of consumers plus similar mix of rich / poor countries.
Looks ideal fit for UK, trading without the political bit
Being nowhere near the Pacific wouldn't be a disadvantage?
Being nowhere near USA doesn't seem to impede our trade.
In any case when your major trade is in finance / services geography is not important.
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
Land value tax is a tax on the value of the land, not the properties on it.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine. One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
That would give you very different figures up North compared to down South.
Here house prices still sell at 2004 prices, down South I don't think that's the case.
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
Land value tax is a tax on the value of the land, not the properties on it.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine. One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
That would give you very different figures up North compared to down South.
Here house prices still sell at 2004 prices, down South I don't think that's the case.
We have the same problem with council tax but the country lives with it.
Makes me feel homesick and sad. I can see my childhood home just to the left of the trees in the middle of the film - the Villa Communale where we played as children.
But superb nonetheless.
Any sense you would be back there for sure.
When travel is feasible again .......
Hopefully sooner rather than later, would be tempted not to come back either.
i) Ex NAFTA, dominated by the USA - this is the one that orbits the USA - Canada, Mexico, Caribbean islands all are intertwined to this. ii) East Asia, dominated by China - raw materials supplied by Australia, reach into Africa. iii) EU+ incl Norway etc, the far extended Germany-France settlement of WWII.
As well as smaller ones, South America (Dominated by Brazil, South Asia (India).
You can be a semi detached member of any of them - New Zealand to the east Asia orbit for instance or Norway to the EU; but you need to work closely with one of them. And that for us is the EU. I don't think it matters so much if we're a member now, that process is painful for joining and leaving but it shares closer values, is closer geographically and is probably our best bet to trade with of the big blocks.
You forgot TPP as a fourth trading block, similar size to EU in terms of consumers plus similar mix of rich / poor countries.
Looks ideal fit for UK, trading without the political bit
Being nowhere near the Pacific wouldn't be a disadvantage?
Being nowhere near USA doesn't seem to impede our trade.
In any case when your major trade is in finance / services geography is not important.
Sure they will be desperate for UK services right enough, how long have they been begging us now.
One thing about the new normal is that in many areas it is likely to be an employers' market, not an employees' one. That will have a significant impact on earnings, particularly at the lower end and particularly outside London.
For example, until about a month ago we were struggling to hire IT people (not lower end, I know). Now we are getting speculative applications and have filled all our vacancies.
Covid 19 may be dominating your thoughts, but mine are turning to assets that I have, property, shares, pension pot, bank deposits and so one tc.
Why? because a wealth tax may be coming. Its been floated in the Times and the Guardian in the past few days and these things are not coincidences.
The politicians are starting to look, horrified, at the numbers, and are realising they have completely bankrupted Britain for what will soon be seen as a highly questionable return.
What better way to make up for the worst policy decision in history than to steal the money from our core vote via state confiscation of assets? (as a 'one off, of course. Special situation doncha know)
You might think Johnson and co would be insane to do that. but then much the government has done in recent weeks has been completely insane.
It was Peter Hitchens who flagged this up originally and why would we believe him? well he's got so much else right about this worst of all debacles, after all
If you remember, in early February before all this started the possibility of Sajid Javid introducing a mansion tax was leaked to the press. It was claimed Johnson initially liked but then nixed the idea. If they wanted one then they aren't going to be shy about having one now.
What to do about It is the question though.
Hard to do when so many people are living on savings already - and plenty more will be doing so once furlough ends. If people have no income, no way of getting a job and such assets as they have are confiscated, what are they supposed to live on?
A very good question. I have no idea what the answer is.
In order to prevent this situation, the government would have had to live, for a while, with a high-ish level of daily deaths.
They would have had to tough out some awful days and terrible headlines in order to protect the British economy.
They simply could not do this. The did not have courage to sacrifice some lives now to save the country from a penury that will be worse for many, many more lives. Policy is all about keeping Adam Boulton and Piers Morgan happy.
As such, a much worse fate awaits them
Nothing wrong in my book with your relentless pushing of this line but I do think you are missing a big point. Or maybe you are not missing it. Let me check.
If we had chosen to take the virus on the chin, its infection and serious sickness rate (forget about deaths) would probably have seen of the order 2m people requiring hospital treatment in a fairly compressed period of time. This would have collapsed the NHS. People would have been suffering and dying en masse outside of the health care system. At home. On the street. In the workplace.
Now in these circumstances it would NOT have been "BAU", would it? We'd be talking civil disorder, people trying to buy preferential medical treatment, holing up at home regardless, societal breakdown, economic carnage, all the rest of it. Or less luridly, the risk of such a catastrophe was judged high enough to rule laissez faire out as an option.
So are you disagreeing with this assessment? Or are you just saying we have overreacted a little and should have gone for a lighter touch Sweden type response?
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
And supermarkets couldn't cope with people going into quarantine, most people only have food and space for food for a week or so at most.
It will be arrivals only going into quarantine - like 90% of the rest of the planet who haven't barred foreigner arrivals absolutely.
One thing about the new normal is that in many areas it is likely to be an employers' market, not an employees' one. That will have a significant impact on earnings, particularly at the lower end and particularly outside London.
For example, until about a month ago we were struggling to hire IT people (not lower end, I know). Now we are getting speculative applications and have filled all our vacancies.
People will be queuing up for government / public service jobs.
Lies printed by Tory mouthpiece you halfwit. She was doing her day job running Scotland's effort and had flunkey's at the unimportant UK meetings. Unlike Boris she was not away impregnating someone and planning how to tell his wife with cancer and his children they were not just dumped but totally out of it. PS : you sound dumb enough and nasty enough to be Murdo's dumber English alter ego. Do you run about with a sash thinking of 1690 by any chance.
As their baby is due "early summer", means Boris would to have been playing hooky from Covid COBRA in September-October. Which would be a story in its own right.
Or you could just be spouting bollocks, stung by discovering Sturgeon has been "AWOL" from the same meetings as Boris! lolz!
Alastair is ignoring the long-term strategic genius of the Tory Party. At this moment where the Chinese Communist Party looks towards a divided Europe, the Tories have put the country in a position to play a decisive historical role by embracing European unity.
The hated Blair and Brown squandered John Major's opt-in to the single currency and opened the City to China, but the patriotic Tories will put that right and cement London's role as a well-regulated capital of European finance.
She was doing her day job running Scotland's effort and had flunkey's at the unimportant UK meetings.
You mean "just like Boris" which Blackford described as "jaw dropping" negligence?
Hypocrites R Us?
Given you Tory numpties never stop chanting "Get on with the Day Job" read and weep , working rather than on holiday plotting divorces and impregnating squeezes
Opposition politicians attacking FM for not attending every UK Cobra meeting. Detail that counts is, as always, at the bottom of the story. "The First Minister has been chairing meetings of the Scottish Government Resilience Committee, our equivalent of Cobra, since January 29".
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
Land value tax is a tax on the value of the land, not the properties on it.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine. One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
That would give you very different figures up North compared to down South.
Here house prices still sell at 2004 prices, down South I don't think that's the case.
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
Land value tax is a tax on the value of the land, not the properties on it.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine. One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
That would give you very different figures up North compared to down South.
Here house prices still sell at 2004 prices, down South I don't think that's the case.
We have the same problem with council tax but the country lives with it.
Not very well when I look at the money a council in the South has to spend compared to the North after Osbourne removed the balancing grants.
Makes me feel homesick and sad. I can see my childhood home just to the left of the trees in the middle of the film - the Villa Communale where we played as children.
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
Land value tax is a tax on the value of the land, not the properties on it.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine. One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
That would give you very different figures up North compared to down South.
Here house prices still sell at 2004 prices, down South I don't think that's the case.
So a different inflation rate for each region. Easy since we have data for how much houses sell for.
Unearthed? Given his previous comments I'd have been stunned if he had not said words of that nature, and I doubt anyone would have been remotely surprised. Sacking him would be pointless - am I to believe Keir Starmer doesn't know who the man is and what he's like?
The only way I see the government funding this in a way remotely acceptable to the public is by printing money or expressly defaulting on debts. Printing money is probably more palatable.
I think you're right about that. The key question will be what will be easiest in the short term.
[Mansion tax] Establishing property values might be a challenge for quite some time.
This is a standard problem for "wealth" taxes such as LVT. The first issue is practical: how to quickly and accurately value many millions of properties. Problem two is that the tax itself will affect those values, so you would need to instantly re-value everything (and so-on).
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
Land value tax is a tax on the value of the land, not the properties on it.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine. One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
That would give you very different figures up North compared to down South.
Here house prices still sell at 2004 prices, down South I don't think that's the case.
We have the same problem with council tax but the country lives with it.
Not very well when I look at the money a council in the South has to spend compared to the North after Osbourne removed the balancing grants.
Exactly, all systems are imperfect. LVT is not perfect but doesnt need to be either, its better than what we have.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
Yes, people think we have locked up the over 70s, we haven't.
You have to be on the shielding list to be locked up.
Lies printed by Tory mouthpiece you halfwit. She was doing her day job running Scotland's effort and had flunkey's at the unimportant UK meetings. Unlike Boris she was not away impregnating someone and planning how to tell his wife with cancer and his children they were not just dumped but totally out of it. PS : you sound dumb enough and nasty enough to be Murdo's dumber English alter ego. Do you run about with a sash thinking of 1690 by any chance.
As their baby is due "early summer", means Boris would to have been playing hooky from Covid COBRA in September-October. Which would be a story in its own right.
Or you could just be spouting bollocks, stung by discovering Sturgeon has been "AWOL" from the same meetings as Boris! lolz!
Another brown nose Tory trying to defend the indefensible. Where was he during those weeks other than in hiding planning how to dump the wife and kids without it being a PR disaster. His day job is not running the country for sure.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine. One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
This only works well for properties that are regularly sold. I recently looked at a house for sale, built around 1900, that had never been on the market (estate property).
I agree none of this is unsurmountable, but is this really the time?
If Trump does lose the shame will be he will claim an easy excuse in the coronavirus and thus the chance of him contemplating that he failed, already slight, will be non-existent.
There is a simple way to do this: ask people what they think it is worth and use that figure. The trick is that they have to sell at that price if they are offered it.
(Guardian) Asked about that Mail on Sunday report that millions of antibody tests had been ordered, Raab said he was not sure if they had been ordered, but he confirmed again that the government is looking at this.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
Yes, people think we have locked up the over 70s, we haven't.
You have to be on the shielding list to be locked up.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
Yes, people think we have locked up the over 70s, we haven't.
You have to be on the shielding list to be locked up.
And many people think non-essential businesses have been ordered to close. They haven't. Or they have closed, rather, a lot of them, but it has been due to the carrot of the furlough scheme (a.k.a. "superdole") rather than the stick of the law.
If Trump does lose the shame will be he will claim an easy excuse in the coronavirus and thus the chance of him contemplating that he failed, already slight, will be non-existent.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
Yes, people think we have locked up the over 70s, we haven't.
You have to be on the shielding list to be locked up.
We are locked up
How's your wife doing by the way? I know its a (more than normally) worrying time for those with underlying health issues. I've got one 64 year old friend who's had an NHS "do not cross your threshold" letter.
Scroll down to the video about conditions in Guayacil, if you think you can handle it. Starts with some people flytipping a corpse, and goes steeply downhill after that. A corrective to the view that we should have let the virus rip.
So a different inflation rate for each region. Easy since we have data for how much houses sell for.
Still issues - 1) Who decides the region, 2) House price inflation can be distorted, e.g. in London a few properties selling at >20M can blank out those selling at far lower prices.
There is a simple way to do this: ask people what they think it is worth and use that figure. The trick is that they have to sell at that price if they are offered it.
Note that I said simple, not good.
I should have said owners rather than just ‘people’.
The only way I see the government funding this in a way remotely acceptable to the public is by printing money or expressly defaulting on debts. Printing money is probably more palatable.
Now might be a very good time to fix mortgage deals.
Also we're back to austerity. It doesn't matter what people think they voted for. There isn't the money for it.
There is a simple way to do this: ask people what they think it is worth and use that figure. The trick is that they have to sell at that price if they are offered it.
Note that I said simple, not good.
I see your caveat, but how many homeowner votes would a party that proposed this get? Less than 5?
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine.
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
Yes, people think we have locked up the over 70s, we haven't.
You have to be on the shielding list to be locked up.
Most, if not all of my over 70's friends are in some form of social isolation. But of course, most of us us have something which is said to mean an increased risk.
And just been talking with my son in Thailand, who says that a) they look like relaxing the rules shortly and b) that his international friends think that Britain has badly mishandled things.
Lies printed by Tory mouthpiece you halfwit. She was doing her day job running Scotland's effort and had flunkey's at the unimportant UK meetings. Unlike Boris she was not away impregnating someone and planning how to tell his wife with cancer and his children they were not just dumped but totally out of it. PS : you sound dumb enough and nasty enough to be Murdo's dumber English alter ego. Do you run about with a sash thinking of 1690 by any chance.
As their baby is due "early summer", means Boris would to have been playing hooky from Covid COBRA in September-October. Which would be a story in its own right.
Or you could just be spouting bollocks, stung by discovering Sturgeon has been "AWOL" from the same meetings as Boris! lolz!
Another brown nose Tory trying to defend the indefensible. Where was he during those weeks other than in hiding planning how to dump the wife and kids without it being a PR disaster. His day job is not running the country for sure.
Malc, at least try and appear fair. Boris Johnson obviously had other things he considered more important than attending COBRA on the dates he missed. An appropriate deputy was assigned. The same with Sturgeon. You cannot say she was doing vital work on Scotland's coronavirus strategy when she was tweeting photos of her playing netball in Dundee. If you criticise Boris for it, as the SNP has been very happy to do, the same criticism must be levelled at Sturgeon.
As for the UK meeting being unimportant, I thought Scotland was toiling in captivity to its colonial English overlords? Or are you really saying that Scotland has enough autonomy to render the UK level response insignificant?
Paper has been submitted for peer review but has not been reviewed yet. If you are taking these meds - keep taking them - if you're worried talk to your Dr before doing anything.
In our dataset, we found that people taking ACE inhibitors and ARBs were twice as likely to report having symptoms of COVID-19 than those who weren’t taking any blood pressure medications, while those taking other types of drug for blood pressure were actually half as likely to show any symptoms.
But - and it’s a big but - we didn’t see the same relationship when it came to people who had actually had a test for COVID-19. In this case, people taking blood pressure medications were just as likely to have a positive test results than those who weren’t.
This may be because there is relatively limited coronavirus testing in the UK, with tests mostly reserved for people who are directly and frequently exposed to the virus, such as healthcare workers, and seriously ill patients who have been hospitalised. So we can’t be sure what’s going on in the wider population for people who have less intense exposure or less serious disease.
There has been, after some new study results, a shift to saying that ACE/ARB make no difference in the severity of any covid symptoms or leading to any greater number od deaths. A good thing, in that I know that I can now take this medication with no fear of it making things worse, Not so good a thing as it gets us no further in understanding why hypertension is one of the major comorbidities.
In other, sneaked out, news, the ‘at risk’ group for the UK has at last been updated to include those with hypertension. This puts us in line with Ireland and other countries. I think the previous advice may have been because age was seen as the major factor but that was leaving out many under seventy unaware of the heightened risk that they face.
The publicity about this? Zero, so people affected still don’t know that they should be taking the same stricter measures as others in the ‘at risk’ group.
I was reading this morning about the new Hong Kong screening plans, then chatting to a friend in Thailand on how they have got on top of this virus, before studying how NZ is handling social distancing. I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit. I wish it weren't so, but it is. We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur: "A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
I'm continually at a loss as to why screening at airports is required when you are returning to a country in lockdown? Could you explain what benefits you get by screening and quarantining people when everyone else is in quarantine. Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
The UK is not in quarantine. You stay at home except for 1) essentials shopping, 2) daily exercise 3) medical needs. In quarantine you stay at home. You do not go out. You do not pop out for a jog. You do not go out for groceries.
Yes, people think we have locked up the over 70s, we haven't. You have to be on the shielding list to be locked up.
Most, if not all of my over 70's friends are in some form of social isolation. But of course, most of us us have something which is said to mean an increased risk. And just been talking with my son in Thailand, who says that a) they look like relaxing the rules shortly and b) that his international friends think that Britain has badly mishandled things.
When you say "Britain", do you mean really Johnson and his chums?
Remarkably impressive that the doctors not only correctly identified all COVID-19 deaths, but they didn’t assign COVID-19 to deaths where it wasn’t present:
Comments
If the measures are to have an impact on younger people, say cancer patients, any detrimental impact will take longer to show itself in the statistics.
As we are on so many other issues.
https://twitter.com/EnglandInEurope/status/1254182363325779968?s=20
On China, I sense some "howling at the moon" about much of the negative sentiment. I recall the consensus not so long ago amongst big picture types that having completed the American century we were about to embark on the Chinese one. It was inevitable (they said). The Sleeping Giant had awoken.
Sheffield Wednesday? No - CHINA. A nation of awesome dimension. One billion people, aspirational, competitive yet co-operative, their "animal spirits" previously suppressed or channeled into self-harm, 100% pure potential energy, now releasing as kinetic, and all of it harnessed to the delivery of economic growth and soaring living standards. Unstoppable.
That is what they said this would be - the Chinese century. It rang true to me then and it still does. If anything, this made-in-China pandemic will probably reinforce and accelerate its hegemony. Cue an utterly irresistible conspiracy theory, surely?
Wealth taxes may or may not come in longer term, but I don't see them as a short-term solution.
Fits with the Economist's piece on excess mortality. They found England+Wales were recording 68% of all pandemic-era excess deaths as covid, France 78%.
For comparison though, Spain was 65%. Slightly scarily, Netherlands was 44% (!!) and Belgium 50%.
I am starting to think that the big difference between the different outcomes in various countries are outbreaks like the one mentioned. Which really does come down to the luck of the draw for a country. It does seem that a few outbreaks like that can be the difference between things developing like in Germany as opposed to Italy. If there is any lesson to be learnt it is perhaps that large gatherings need to be banned almost immediately when a new virus emerges; or course that would be enormously disruptive and result in a lot of a complaints when it's another SARS not another COVID-19.
What I did say is that the end result of this crisis will see the demise of the US as the world's great superpower and the emergence of Asian countries. Someone in response added India to my thesis, with which I didn't cavil.
I have seen nothing to alter my view. In fact it has strengthened a hundred-fold.
https://mobile.twitter.com/john_lichfield/status/1253981141725478912
You forgot TPP as a fourth trading block, similar size to EU in terms of consumers plus similar mix of rich / poor countries.
Looks ideal fit for UK, trading without the political bit
There a reason why S Korea, with less testing capacity than we now have, has had no deaths for the last three days - and is not in full lockdown.
(And incidentally, used regional lockdowns to excellent effect.)
This is going to be a painful experience for every country, but some will emerge with less damage than others.
I also don't see what's difficult about valuing properties. Other countries do this fine.
One simple way is to say a property is worth what you paid for it when purchased +x% each year where x is house price inflation.
I then suggested to a friend over a late breakfast just how shit the UK is. Gloss it as much as you like, pretend otherwise or just ignore the truth but we are absolutely shit. From the non-screening at airports, to the lack of alcohol dispensers, the non-wearing of face masks, the absence of PPE, the non-testing we are absolutely shit.
I wish it weren't so, but it is.
We are a fourth-rate nation of deluded grandeur:
"A living vision of that which has already been left far behind by the flowing streams of Time."
The 'RIP X, 1955-2017' in the credits sequence can be a bit grim.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52420312
Coronavirus: Air France-KLM secures billions in government aid
On top of €5 billion for Renault.....
https://www.france24.com/en/20200424-french-government-announces-historic-€7-billion-aid-pakage-for-air-france-klm
Yes, these are exceptional times, but we've hardly been the worst offenders....
Implementing screening, testing and a 14 day quarantine on arrivals when other people are out and about makes sense but at the moment when all you can do is arrive in the UK, head home and stay there?
At the beginning of the 20th century you would likely have looked at iron and steel exports and declared that the coming century would belong to Imperial Germany. Perhaps democratic India will take up a more positive mantle of world leadership, as the democratic US did in the 20th century - and hopefully without fighting two world wars.
Makes me feel homesick and sad. I can see my childhood home just to the left of the trees in the middle of the film - the Villa Communale where we played as children.
But superb nonetheless.
PS: If Scotland does not have the bottle to get out of the shitshow.
https://twitter.com/ka8895/status/1254306384985849867?s=20
Nicola Sturgeon missed six emergency coronavirus Cobra meetings as the deadly virus was tightening its grip on Scotland, it has emerged.
The First Minister skipped the crucial UK Government forums but still found time to post on social media – including a video of herself playing netball with schoolchildren on the day of one top-level gathering to discuss the crisis.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been criticised for missing Cobra five times, with the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford describing his non-attendance as “jaw-dropping” negligence.
But the Sunday Mail has found Surgeon also failed to join the vital sessions until March 2 – despite the horrifying economic and health implications of the pandemic becoming increasingly clear.
And supermarkets couldn't cope with people going into quarantine, most people only have food and space for food for a week or so at most.
PS : you sound dumb enough and nasty enough to be Murdo's dumber English alter ego. Do you run about with a sash thinking of 1690 by any chance.
Being nowhere near USA doesn't seem to impede our trade.
In any case when your major trade is in finance / services geography is not important.
Here house prices still sell at 2004 prices, down South I don't think that's the case.
Although lockdown is a good time to maintain a beard.
For example, until about a month ago we were struggling to hire IT people (not lower end, I know). Now we are getting speculative applications and have filled all our vacancies.
Hypocrites R Us?
If we had chosen to take the virus on the chin, its infection and serious sickness rate (forget about deaths) would probably have seen of the order 2m people requiring hospital treatment in a fairly compressed period of time. This would have collapsed the NHS. People would have been suffering and dying en masse outside of the health care system. At home. On the street. In the workplace.
Now in these circumstances it would NOT have been "BAU", would it? We'd be talking civil disorder, people trying to buy preferential medical treatment, holing up at home regardless, societal breakdown, economic carnage, all the rest of it. Or less luridly, the risk of such a catastrophe was judged high enough to rule laissez faire out as an option.
So are you disagreeing with this assessment? Or are you just saying we have overreacted a little and should have gone for a lighter touch Sweden type response?
Or you could just be spouting bollocks, stung by discovering Sturgeon has been "AWOL" from the same meetings as Boris! lolz!
Has @WATPFTP1690 been on the blower again?
The hated Blair and Brown squandered John Major's opt-in to the single currency and opened the City to China, but the patriotic Tories will put that right and cement London's role as a well-regulated capital of European finance.
read and weep , working rather than on holiday plotting divorces and impregnating squeezes
Opposition politicians attacking FM for not attending every UK Cobra meeting. Detail that counts is, as always, at the bottom of the story. "The First Minister has been chairing meetings of the Scottish Government Resilience Committee, our equivalent of Cobra, since January 29".
You have to be on the shielding list to be locked up.
Where was he during those weeks other than in hiding planning how to dump the wife and kids without it being a PR disaster. His day job is not running the country for sure.
I agree none of this is unsurmountable, but is this really the time?
There is a simple way to do this: ask people what they think it is worth and use that figure. The trick is that they have to sell at that price if they are offered it.
Note that I said simple, not good.
Asked about that Mail on Sunday report that millions of antibody tests had been ordered, Raab said he was not sure if they had been ordered, but he confirmed again that the government is looking at this.
https://static.politico.com/80/54/2f3219384e01833b0a0ddf95181c/corona-virus-big-book-4.17.20.pdf
ETA summary: don't defend Trump; attack China; attack Biden and Dems as soft on China.
Scroll down to the video about conditions in Guayacil, if you think you can handle it. Starts with some people flytipping a corpse, and goes steeply downhill after that. A corrective to the view that we should have let the virus rip.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1254320484776378369?s=20
Something like that, anyway.
The garden awaits - laters...
And just been talking with my son in Thailand, who says that a) they look like relaxing the rules shortly and b) that his international friends think that Britain has badly mishandled things.
As for the UK meeting being unimportant, I thought Scotland was toiling in captivity to its colonial English overlords? Or are you really saying that Scotland has enough autonomy to render the UK level response insignificant?
In other, sneaked out, news, the ‘at risk’ group for the UK has at last been updated to include those with hypertension. This puts us in line with Ireland and other countries. I think the previous advice may have been because age was seen as the major factor but that was leaving out many under seventy unaware of the heightened risk that they face.
The publicity about this? Zero, so people affected still don’t know that they should be taking the same stricter measures as others in the ‘at risk’ group.
Can still lay at about evens - amazingly.