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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Splendid self-isolation. The lack of realism infecting British foreign policy
The new China Research Group led by @TomTugendhat @NeilDotObrien is attempt by the mainstream of the Conservative party to shape the upcoming big China debate. Also includes notable numbers of the 2019 intake: @DehennaDavison @ab4scambs @aliciakearns https://t.co/UvGkil5IN8
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While deals with the EU, the US and China all require painful compromises (and therefore will probably not happen for some time), there are plenty of places that are not as overbearing as those three.
We would expect to see, therefore, deals with Canada, with New Zealand, with Australia, and with South Korea. Now, are these massive? No, because those countries simply aren't that big.
This does probably mean the UK's terms of trade will worsen somewhat. But that's not the end of the world. It will require some painful adjustments. And yes, some businesses will probably end up closing.
But in the long run, the wealth of the United Kingdom and its citizens will not be determined by the trade deals agreed in the coming decade, but in public policy choices, particularly around education and the tax and benefits system.
If we continue to discourage work through an ill sort out set of incentives. And if we choose to produce millions of young people without employable skills, then we'll be stuffed. But at least we won't be able to hide those faults through immigration from the EU.
Politicians, I grant you, have hardly covered themselves in glory so far. But at least they will be responsible. Thar can be no bad thing.
Lol. Like you know any other tune.
Thanks for the header, Alistair - though it seems a little bizarre as a view. The 'Ohno! Another Death Cult Under the Bed!' view seems to be a touch too dominant.
Off for a bike ride. Will reflect.
Just because you hate your own country doesn't mean everyone else does.
Disgusting.
They don’t amount to a hill of beans.
That just proves Socialism doesn't work.
For those wondering why eastern Europe has lower rates of Covid than western Europe, have a look at the former East German states compared to the others. The much lower rates in the new Bundesländer are no doubt a result of the epidemic spreading in those places later (I assume because of things like fewer people returning from holiday in Italy), and therefore the lock down starting earlier, relative to the epidemic.
Rostock seems to have done a good job of testing and contact tracing, and an early lock down.
In other news
https://twitter.com/constelz/status/1254129950271188994?s=21
Korea reports no COVID-19 death for second day in row
http://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=288483
The government reported 10 new COVID-19 infections Saturday amid no new deaths linked to the disease.
Ten new cases were also diagnosed the day before, bringing the total number of patients to 10,718, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC).
Four of the latest infections were among arrivals from overseas, including two foreign nationals.
Among the 10, three were reported in Daegu, which was the epicenter of the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus several weeks ago. Two others were confirmed in Gyeonggi Province and one in Seoul.
The death toll remained at 240 for the third consecutive day, with no report of new deaths over the past two days...
Korea managed a very large initial outbreak, and with a population not dissimilar to England, with no more than around 20,000 tests per day.
And only the party bosses drove them.
The Alphasud was classic state planning as with the Hillman Imp in the UK; build the factory where there is unemployment not where the skills are.
I suspect, though, that rcs100 - who did engage - is correct. We have a very long, very difficult rebalancing ahead of us. We are talking decades, not one or two electoral cycles, and because of the pain (especially post-covid), the danger is that it will never happen. The consequences of that are not going to be happy ones.
EDIT: Oops - just read the comments - not as original an insight as I thought!
Alastair is Alastair.
https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1254257031973949441?s=20
Education, skills, welfare policy always have been under the control of our own government. At the very least Brexit is a massive distraction, if not a major hindrance.
The reality is that "Singapore on Thames"* is far less likely than "Buenos Aries in the Puddle", with competitive rounds of autarchy and nationalist social rhetoric.
*"Singapore on Thames" by and large already exists in London and the archipelago of English Remainia. The social divide between this and the declining towns of Leaverstan is the problem not the solution.
Indeed, so far as there is a plan, it seems to be to tax and inhibit growth in these areas to redistribute in the form of welfare to the declining towns. "Singapore on Trent" or "Singapore on Tees" are never mentioned.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/11479824/hong-kong-airport-gives-a-glimpse-of-life-after-coronavirus-with-disinfection-tunnels-and-sanitagged-bags/
On the impact on individuals, although this is American a lot of it is transferable to the UK: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/25/covid-19-pandemic-shines-a-light-on-a-new-kind-of-class-divide-and-its-inequalities .
A big difference is the link between employment and health insurance in the US - this has evolved more or less accidentally on the basis that the greater majority of people are employed. Now that is less true, the health gap is widening alarmingly. I'm not saying the NHS system is the only answer - social insurance as in most part of Europe is robust too. But employment-based insurance really is not.
Dr. Foxy, whilst there's merit in what you say, it also misses the point.
You refer to the 'vacuity of Brexitism', but the decision to leave was not based on endorsing a specific path forward, but on whether to remain in the EU or leave. Your attack (which, as I said, has merit) on how things might turn out is in no way a defence of, let alone promotion of, the EU. It's a bit like the strategic mistake the Remain campaign made, failing to defend the thing the vote was actually about and instead attacking what might happen as an alternative.
We can choose the way forward (and may choose wisely or poorly). But the referendum was about who decides (amongst other things).
If I were a resident of Remainia, as you put it, I'd be looking at trying to get the closest credible deal with the EU to make a return easier (this looks unlikely now, given the pro-EU Parliament repeatedly rejected everything May tried).
Indeed it is impressive how few rusty cars we see nowadays. The days waxoyling everything in sight and bodging filler in the sills are just happy memories.
In terms of socialist engineering, I did learn to ride on an MZ 125, in all its premixed 2 stroke slippery tyred glory. 6v electrics that failed in the rain and cable drum brakes. It certainly taught me traffic awareness!
7-9 April - Tory 55%, Labour 29%
21-23 April - Tory 50%, Labour 33%
I make that a nine point swing.
Given the Tory lead, it is not that significant. But it is a positive direction of travel. It will be interesting to see how things develop post-crisis when the real decisions start being taken.
The challenge is unlike any before. We cannot isolate ourselves from China. We need to engage not just to contain this deadly virus but to work together on the challenges we all face. automation, climate change, demographics and much more will have a dramatic impact on China as well as everywhere else, and we need to find ways to work together. But cooperation can only come from understanding.
https://www.cityam.com/we-must-understand-china-to-manage-the-threat-of-this-rising-superpower/
No mentions of "Singapore on Thames" or "punishment" or "John Bull".
But you are touchingly naive in thinking that Brexiteers will accept responsibility, and not still be blaminh dastardly foreigners in decades to come.
Wonderful moment from Brad Pitt
https://twitter.com/JakeVK/status/1254258027915591680?s=20
https://twitter.com/abcliz/status/1254207698461061121?s=21
In time, I expect Britons will realise the self destructiveness of Autarky Brexit, but they need to get a strong sulphurous whiff of Hell before they repent.
The mechanics and electrics fail on modern cars way before the bodywork.
And for a long time we earned excess profits because only we knew the secret of mass production. It's not a secret anymore, and therefore we are inevitably going to end up with a smaller share of the pie.
So that's probably not that risky behaviour.
At present we seem to be transitioning to a state where the disease is endemic, so little point. If you can catch it easily on the Northern Line, why quarantine after a fortnight in Aya Napa?
No one is changing their mind now, we are in the sunk cost folly phase of Brexit.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1252276937864679424?s=09
Of course it was as badly built as any other car with the Plughole of Despair badge on it but so were most cars in the 70s.
This was lost by pro-EU types due to a combination of May's short-sighted mantra "no deal is better than a bad deal", which then bit her, and pro-EU MPs of all parties managing to frustrate everything she tried and ending up with a less pro-EU PM and losing the substantial pro-EU majority MPs enjoyed.
Obviously that's water under the bridge but how things develop remain to be determined.
If sides get bogged down slagging one another off that doesn't achieve anything and makes any kind of sustainable approach more difficult. The EU's current policy of wanting full access to our fishing stock and to perpetually impose law upon us is not acceptable, but I would (ideally, I know this is now very unlikely) like to see a reasonable trade deal agreed.
Of 809,000 Morris Marinas that were built, by 2017, only 294 remained.
But, you're right, it fitted 6 of us inside and my father had to look wistfully as he steered the landcrab out of the drive and left his E-type behind. The maxi was indeed 'big.' And it was a hatchback.
Talking of which, if only the designers at British Leyland had put the Mini's hinge at the top of the boot instead of 2/3rd way down. They'd have had the perfect mini hatchback, twenty years ahead of time.
https://twitter.com/iangmanning/status/1253877660108951553?s=21
Total rust bucket of course.
If i win the lottery i will get a manual Triumph Stag having been assured that its A1 and tge radiator and overheating problems have been sorted....
Its a lovely looking car
Can't say I followed my dad's enthusiasm's on cars. In fact, I don't even own one. Give me a train, bicycle or horse.
Many are making the arguments for trade deals and trade partners not least our Prime Minister who far from blocking Huawei agreed to it. So apart from your premise being 100% fictional, great article!
As for a post Brexit deal a couple still parrot HYUFD by insisting that what we signed into in Boris's deal isn't what we signed. That there will be no border down the Irish Sea. Fine of we remain buffered up to but no longer coupled to the EU. What does alignment matter to them anyway? We needed to Take Back Control of our borders so we could shut them, something EU countries can't do. And yet EU countries shut their borders and we didn't. We no longer have to fly Romanians in to Take Our Jobs, instead we're choosing to fly Romanians in to do jobs we can't be arsed with.
Little needs to change. As we cannot build a border by December we know that we will transition into a deal where we exercise our Sovereignty to do what we were doing before. We won't be able to travel around Europe but the same will be true for EU citizens. The old world has gone. They won. And yet so angry. It's quite funny really...
We need to start doing that now.
Nick Palmer mentioned the lack of strategic thinking which seems right. There was strategic thinking of sorts from Osborne but it was probably the wrong kind. Let's be as friendly as possible to get the economic benefits and then China is more likely to be influenced by us. He might as well have said 'stand shoulder to shoulder.'
I would have thought a sensible position would be - The rise of China is a reality, how might we gain some benefit from that whilst protecting ourselves from the threats it poses (in its current form of governance). Perhaps an opposition lead by a human rights barrister could think of something?
I see there's some criticism upthread of not engaging.
I don't engage anymore because I've found it to be totally fruitless: the debate never goes anywhere and it just ends in one being patronised at best and insulted at worst.
https://www.38north.org/2020/04/wonsancompound042520/
Which does rather suggest that the globalists (the civil service?) have more sway than you might think.
Like the retired group-captain who has a tourette-like facial tick for the rest of his life whenever someone mentions the word "Luftwaffe" he just can't help himself. So he had to wank these article out to relieve himself.
The irony is that Alastair was arguing for defence and foreign policy retrenchment from the UK *before* Brexit ever occured, on the grounds a fifth of the world is no longer painted pink and he was just all a bit embarrassed by it.
So, I'm not taking lectures on isolationism from him, I'm afraid.
But it's a lot easier to call the other side fantasists, Little Englanders, xenophobes, (or traitors...), than it is to actually consider what their concerns are and why they voted the way they did. But that does mean engaging with their opinions and treating them as valid, rather than ignorant fantastical nonsense to be derided.
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3049227/who-owns-magic-cure-chinas-move-patent-gileads-experimental-drug-could
The actual EU always seems to fall short of the dream.
I also do not doubt that there is considerable anger with China arising from both the source of the virus and the lies told about it. But Alastair is wrong to say that this is a UK thing, it is not. What we will see is a lot of foreign manufacturing moving out of China. Most of that will belong to the US, our investments are somewhat smaller. There will be a desire to have shorter lines of supply and import substitution is going to be important.
The idea that the UK will be in the vanguard of this is wrong but we will no doubt play our small part. To take the voices arguing for this as evidence of a uniquely Britannia approach is wrong, they are a part of a much broader conversation.
This will matter to China but probably not as much as we think it will. They have critical mass in their own economy and in their economic sphere of influence.