The U.S. government had never mounted a better interagency response to a crisis, Mr. Azar told the president in a meeting held eight days after the U.S. announced its first case, according to administration officials. At the time, the administration’s focus was on containing the virus.
When other officials asked about diagnostic testing, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, began to answer. Mr. Azar cut him off, telling the president it was “the fastest we’ve ever created a test,” the officials recalled, and that more than one million tests would be available within weeks.
That didn’t happen. The CDC began shipping tests the following week, only to discover a flaw that forced it to recall the test from state public-health laboratories. When White House advisers later in February criticized Mr. Azar for the delays caused by the recall, he lashed out at Dr. Redfield, accusing the CDC director of misleading him on the timing of a fix. “Did you lie to me?” one of the officials recalled him yelling....
The most surprising thing about the current US administration is Dr Anthony Fauci who seems to be talking sense.
We know why he is there - a previous appointment. But usually Trump has binned all the competent people...
Fauci is an exceptional diplomat.
Also, he's not afraid of Trump, one of whose talents learned over a lifetime is sensing fear in others.
Predictable from the EU about the Netherlands. I remember writing that Germany and the other creditor nations would do well to give Dave what he wanted in the renegotiation otherwise they would find themselves in our position as the new hate figure for when things go wrong.
What did you make of the suggestion that Germany (for example) has a lower fatality rate partly because they actively admit patients at an earlier stage of disease progression ?
I think the rate would be better as the denominator would be bigger.
Whether spotting progression earlier in milder cases would give better outcomes is unknown. I suspect it would.
It was the second point I was interested in, so thanks for that (though it was more about earlier admission of cases which turned out to be serious).
@FrancisUrquhart yesterday posted an article by a NY (I think) medic on this, in which he described how patients, by the time they had been admitted, had already suffered significant lung damage, often without realising how ill they were.
Yes, I agree.
I think the Nightingale hospitals are best used in a Wuhan type funnel system, with admission of all cases, no matter how mild. They can be swabbed and contact traced, and quarantined for 14 days. Baseline bloods for inflammatory markers, renal function etc, and onward monitoring for progression.
My covid colleagues are finding low blood pressure and renal failure quite a problem, on top of the well known respiratory problems.
And early oxygen to relieve stress on the lungs, presumably.
The low blood pressure is interesting. Do they have an idea of the mechanism ?
I looked at @Black_Rook 's suggestion yesterday that under 60s be allowed to exit the lockdown due to their lower (comparative) risk. And because I wanted it to be feasible, I crunched the numbers.
There's a perception that covid-19 is "less fatal than seasonal 'flu for the under-60s, and we don't lock down for that," so surely we can do this?
Infectivity Problem is R0 (well, Rt - the transmission rate after interventions). In essence, most of the time, you aren't catching seasonal flu, even when someone around is infective. R0 for seasonal flu is around 1.3, and we vaccinate 14 million per year (over 20% of the population). This gives us almost the level we need for herd immunity, anyway (Rt goes to 1.02). Compare to R0 of 3.0 for coid-19 (may be higher).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of seasonal flu has infected 11.4 other people on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of 114 others over the season).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of covid-19 has infected 88,572 others on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of nearly 9 million others).
Exponential growth is a bastard.
Fatality rate Say, for the sake of argument, the death rate is only a tenth in our "freed" population. And it is 300 per day when we unlock (most of which are elderly). It would equate to only 30 per day in the "freed" population. Deaths doubling every 3-4 days means 120 per day after one week.
After 2 weeks, just under 500 per day.
After 3 weeks, 2000 per day (and, remember, these are the "freed" population).
Ah, but won't we hit herd immunity amongst this population? (I may be reaching for straws, but let's check to see if it's a straw or a vine)
The problem comes from saturation of the NHS (again). We escaped it this time, probably be a decent factor - but time is so crucial against an exponential rise (if we were only reaching 25% saturation of the NHS, then if we'd waited more than 7 days before imposing the restrictions we did, we'd have blasted past the maximum capacity while still accelerating. Exponential growth is a bastard).
Get past saturation, and those who need hospitalisation - don't get it. So what happens to you if you need hospital help and it's unavailable? One would expect your chance of death would go up quite significantly (otherwise, well, you didn't need hospital, did you?). If one third of those who need hospitalisation and don't get it end up dying, and the hospitalisation rate is compatible with an overall 0.66% IFR (which may be significantly too low, from the report yesterday) - Over 250,000 of the "freed" population will die
Okay, shift to only under fifties. (So I stay in the population). It improves - to a degree. Over 140,000 of them die.
Okay, only people up to their thirties. Over 70,000 die. Which looks better - but only in comparison to what we've seen before. If 70,000 were to die in "normal" circumstances, we'd be horrified.
Doesn't look to be a goer. Bugger.
Good analysis, but what if social distancing and large-scale meetings were capped with a culture of very good personal cleanliness.
What do the numbers look like then?
What does Rt go to?
I don't know. It would be good to see it modelled under different scenarios and assumptions, with +/- error bars added.
Under lockdown it's probably <1.0, and - unconstrained - it's anything between 2.2 and 3.1. So for social distancing and cleanliness culture it would probably be between 1.0 and 2.0.
If it's 1.2-1.4 we probably don't have a problem, particularly with track & trace. If it's 1.7-1.9 then maybe we do. </p>
Merkel said if R was 1.1 Germany would run out of ICU beds by August, 1.2 by July. It really has to be kept below, or very close to 1.
If you think of it in compound interest terms, an R of 1.1 is like an interest rate of 10%. You'd double your money fairly quickly with rates like that.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
Isolated in a recent European Union council of ministers, with attitudes described by European leaders past and present as “repugnant”.
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
It is presumably nothing more than a slightly odd coincidence that both the UK and Sweden had outlier-ish looking "peaks" on April 8. Assuming your data is on an occurrence, rather than reported, basis?
I thought it was the U.K. who was criticised by Remainers for using security cooperation as a threat
It looks to me liked a leaked EU negotiating position to a friendly newspaper to me, which tells me they want to talk about it but just pull the rope a bit their way.
Either way I'm entirely relaxed about it. Our security services are way better than theirs and have better access to intelligence, so ultimately they need mutual co-operation on crime and terrorism more than we do.
With intelligence though more is better.
The best description I heard is that it is like repairing a broken mosaic. A single piece of information on its own may have no value but as part of picture it unlocks everything
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
You seem quite keen to highlight Andrew Neil's "partisan" views but never seem to apply any criticism to Faisal Islam.
I wonder why.
It seems to be accurately reported. Unless you know different? Is there a separate Leaverworld PMI series?
Islam always has an anti-Brexit slant in his reporting and selection of facts, and has done for years.
Andrew Neil takes the opposite view, and those two balance each other out.
You seem to be unable to see this.
This morning one has accurately reported an entirely factual matter. The other has fallen for partisan spin.
You seem unable to see why the views of one might be worth pointing out this morning, but not the other.
Actually, I’d say Faisal Islam’s choice of words to report those facts isn’t really factual. It betrays his position. A neutral observer asked to work out his stance would surely deduce he was not a fan of the govt
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
I agree. That’s why I’m a unionist. But those benefits only accrue where there is mutual consent
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
The U.S. government had never mounted a better interagency response to a crisis, Mr. Azar told the president in a meeting held eight days after the U.S. announced its first case, according to administration officials. At the time, the administration’s focus was on containing the virus.
When other officials asked about diagnostic testing, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, began to answer. Mr. Azar cut him off, telling the president it was “the fastest we’ve ever created a test,” the officials recalled, and that more than one million tests would be available within weeks.
That didn’t happen. The CDC began shipping tests the following week, only to discover a flaw that forced it to recall the test from state public-health laboratories. When White House advisers later in February criticized Mr. Azar for the delays caused by the recall, he lashed out at Dr. Redfield, accusing the CDC director of misleading him on the timing of a fix. “Did you lie to me?” one of the officials recalled him yelling....
The most surprising thing about the current US administration is Dr Anthony Fauci who seems to be talking sense.
We know why he is there - a previous appointment. But usually Trump has binned all the competent people...
Fauci is an exceptional diplomat.
Also, he's not afraid of Trump, one of whose talents learned over a lifetime is sensing fear in others.
"Anthony fauci has been different from any other prominent official Donald Trump has dealt with in his time as president. The difference is that Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, is not afraid. To put it in terms Trump might recognize: What the hell does he have to lose?"
I thought it was the U.K. who was criticised by Remainers for using security cooperation as a threat
It looks to me liked a leaked EU negotiating position to a friendly newspaper to me, which tells me they want to talk about it but just pull the rope a bit their way.
Either way I'm entirely relaxed about it. Our security services are way better than theirs and have better access to intelligence, so ultimately they need mutual co-operation on crime and terrorism more than we do.
With intelligence though more is better.
The best description I heard is that it is like repairing a broken mosaic. A single piece of information on its own may have no value but as part of picture it unlocks everything
Just read the obituary of your father in The Times, Charles. He sounded like a fantastic man and I'm sure you will have countless lovely memories of him.
I looked at @Black_Rook 's suggestion yesterday that under 60s be allowed to exit the lockdown due to their lower (comparative) risk. And because I wanted it to be feasible, I crunched the numbers.
There's a perception that covid-19 is "less fatal than seasonal 'flu for the under-60s, and we don't lock down for that," so surely we can do this?
Infectivity Problem is R0 (well, Rt - the transmission rate after interventions). In essence, most of the time, you aren't catching seasonal flu, even when someone around is infective. R0 for seasonal flu is around 1.3, and we vaccinate 14 million per year (over 20% of the population). This gives us almost the level we need for herd immunity, anyway (Rt goes to 1.02). Compare to R0 of 3.0 for coid-19 (may be higher).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of seasonal flu has infected 11.4 other people on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of 114 others over the season).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of covid-19 has infected 88,572 others on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of nearly 9 million others).
Exponential growth is a bastard.
Fatality rate Say, for the sake of argument, the death rate is only a tenth in our "freed" population. And it is 300 per day when we unlock (most of which are elderly). It would equate to only 30 per day in the "freed" population. Deaths doubling every 3-4 days means 120 per day after one week.
After 2 weeks, just under 500 per day.
After 3 weeks, 2000 per day (and, remember, these are the "freed" population).
Ah, but won't we hit herd immunity amongst this population? (I may be reaching for straws, but let's check to see if it's a straw or a vine)
The problem comes from saturation of the NHS (again). We escaped it this time, probably be a decent factor - but time is so crucial against an exponential rise (if we were only reaching 25% saturation of the NHS, then if we'd waited more than 7 days before imposing the restrictions we did, we'd have blasted past the maximum capacity while still accelerating. Exponential growth is a bastard).
Get past saturation, and those who need hospitalisation - don't get it. So what happens to you if you need hospital help and it's unavailable? One would expect your chance of death would go up quite significantly (otherwise, well, you didn't need hospital, did you?). If one third of those who need hospitalisation and don't get it end up dying, and the hospitalisation rate is compatible with an overall 0.66% IFR (which may be significantly too low, from the report yesterday) - Over 250,000 of the "freed" population will die
Okay, shift to only under fifties. (So I stay in the population). It improves - to a degree. Over 140,000 of them die.
Okay, only people up to their thirties. Over 70,000 die. Which looks better - but only in comparison to what we've seen before. If 70,000 were to die in "normal" circumstances, we'd be horrified.
Doesn't look to be a goer. Bugger.
Good analysis, but what if social distancing and large-scale meetings were capped with a culture of very good personal cleanliness.
What do the numbers look like then?
What does Rt go to?
I don't know. It would be good to see it modelled under different scenarios and assumptions, with +/- error bars added.
Under lockdown it's probably <1.0, and - unconstrained - it's anything between 2.2 and 3.1. So for social distancing and cleanliness culture it would probably be between 1.0 and 2.0.
If it's 1.2-1.4 we probably don't have a problem, particularly with track & trace. If it's 1.7-1.9 then maybe we do. </p>
Merkel said if R was 1.1 Germany would run out of ICU beds by August, 1.2 by July. It really has to be kept below, or very close to 1.
If you think of it in compound interest terms, an R of 1.1 is like an interest rate of 10%. You'd double your money fairly quickly with rates like that.
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
You may not have noticed, but the government asked for consent for a wide union and it was withheld
The NZ nurse who attended Johnson on R4 - he needed to be there, got same treatment as everyone else and didn’t get special treatment.
I get why she is saying what she is saying, but I would hope that the Prime Minister would get special treatment if necessary.
I would hope he got exactly the same treatment as everyone else whist knowing he got very special VIP treatment which is typical of this shithole country. The herd are expendable but some fat buffoon toff is very special.
Tbh, anyone categorising the PMI figures as anything other than a disaster needs their head examining. 12.9 composite maps to something like a 30% reduction in GDP.
I'm also not sure what Faisal is on about, 13.5 in the euro area also maps to something like a 30% reduction in GDP. Whether it's 29.8% or 30.4% really doesn't make a difference both numbers are terrible, there's no real difference.
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
Tbh, anyone categorising the PMI figures as anything other than a disaster needs their head examining. 12.9 composite maps to something like a 30% reduction in GDP.
I'm also not sure what Faisal is on about, 13.5 in the euro area also maps to something like a 30% reduction in GDP. Whether it's 29.8% or 30.4% really doesn't make a difference both numbers are terrible, there's no real difference.
I don't get the idea that any of this is a surprise. The Country has been instructed by the Governemnt to go into lockdown.Therefore the economy had to collapse
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Banning flights from China, USA etc seems like it was a good move for Sweden.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
So we should not ask for justice because there are some issues on which justice might be against us?
It takes 5 minutes looking at a map and a history book to see that the existence of NI is an anomaly.
FWIW, I think people could tolerate suspension of mass gatherings/concerts/ meets/ festivals etc. with thousands of people for 2-3 years.
They probably won't tolerate not being able to occasionally see and visit their closest family and friends in their own homes in groups of 3-5.
That's why we're going to have a second wave. A lot of economic activity could probably be accommodated to social distancing. But of course what people really want to do is socialise with one another - even if it means giving one another a potentially lethal disease.
People talking face-to-face, groups of people in enclosed spaces - that's the main way a disease like this spreads. It's not going to be brought back by an economic imperative - that could be handled. It's going to be brought back by people's instinct to socialise.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Banning flights from China, USA etc seems like it was a good move for Sweden.
Yes, I really wish the press would hammer this question every single day until we get a proper answer as to why we're still allowing flights into the country. Following the science is a bullshit answer.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Banning flights from China, USA etc seems like it was a good move for Sweden.
I've been definitively informed that keeping the LHR - JFK route open trumps everything else in the economy.
FWIW, I think people could tolerate suspension of mass gatherings/concerts/ meets/ festivals etc. with thousands of people for 2-3 years.
They probably won't tolerate not being able to occasionally see and visit their closest family and friends in their own homes in groups of 3-5.
That's why we're going to have a second wave. A lot of economic activity could probably be accommodated to social distancing. But of course what people really want to do is socialise with one another - even if it means giving one another a potentially lethal disease.
We may not have a second wave and if we do it may not matter so much.
The government and NHS need to be upping testing capacity, PPE availability, ventilators and/or relevant treatment capacity as much as possible during the lockdown. After the lockdown ends (and it needs to end sooner rather than later, weeks not years from now) then we need to track and trace cases while ensuring there is abundant PPE and treatments available.
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
The lockdown itself must be causing deaths. People having treatment cancelled, mental health problems, lack of support.
My dad passed away last week in a care home. We were unable to visit him for the last month. I'm sure that alone shaved several weeks off his life. The undertaker cheerfully told me they were very busy but that only a small percentage of the numbers were from covid.
FWIW, I think people could tolerate suspension of mass gatherings/concerts/ meets/ festivals etc. with thousands of people for 2-3 years.
They probably won't tolerate not being able to occasionally see and visit their closest family and friends in their own homes in groups of 3-5.
That's why we're going to have a second wave. A lot of economic activity could probably be accommodated to social distancing. But of course what people really want to do is socialise with one another - even if it means giving one another a potentially lethal disease.
We may not have a second wave and if we do it may not matter so much.
The government and NHS need to be upping testing capacity, PPE availability, ventilators and/or relevant treatment capacity as much as possible during the lockdown. After the lockdown ends (and it needs to end sooner rather than later, weeks not years from now) then we need to track and trace cases while ensuring there is abundant PPE and treatments available.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Banning flights from China, USA etc seems like it was a good move for Sweden.
Yes, I really wish the press would hammer this question every single day until we get a proper answer as to why we're still allowing flights into the country. Following the science is a bullshit answer.
You don't even need to ban flights from everywhere. Just the places where you are think the infection rate is higher than your home country. That's not many places right now, but it is New York and perhaps Madrid.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
You may not have noticed, but the government asked for consent for a wide union and it was withheld
I didn't notice England ever being asked if it wanted to be part of the UK.
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
It's just showboating. But seems to have had the intended effect on the people who it was intended to have an effect on.
So which rig should he wear for a press conference - No. 1, No. 13?
Given that he was probably wearing what he turned up in, for the rest of the day....
He's CDS and spends his days in an office in suits. If he wanted to put on his uniform then he could probably have put on his No.1s or No. 2s if he wanted to go green.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Banning flights from China, USA etc seems like it was a good move for Sweden.
Yes, I really wish the press would hammer this question every single day until we get a proper answer as to why we're still allowing flights into the country. Following the science is a bullshit answer.
You don't even need to ban flights from everywhere. Just the places where you are think the infection rate is higher than your home country. That's not many places right now, but it is New York and perhaps Madrid.
No, I'd go full Trump and ban everything. Selectively reopen where it's safe. Not only is letting people travel to London dangerous for us, letting people travel from London is dangerous for other countries where the people land.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that some states have gone too far in easing coronavirus lockdowns and warned the country is still at the beginning of its outbreak, not the end.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
I couldn't disagree more. The positive about the break-up of the UK is the EXACT SAME principle as to why we voted for Brexit - that control over laws is better exercised by those who vote for the law.
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
It's just showboating. But seems to have had the intended effect on the people who it was intended to have an effect on.
So which rig should he wear for a press conference - No. 1, No. 13?
Given that he was probably wearing what he turned up in, for the rest of the day....
He's CDS and spends his days in an office in suits. If he wanted to put on his uniform then he could probably have put on his No.1s or No. 2s if he wanted to go green.
If he were wearing actual cammo, then that would be a suit...
FWIW, I think people could tolerate suspension of mass gatherings/concerts/ meets/ festivals etc. with thousands of people for 2-3 years.
They probably won't tolerate not being able to occasionally see and visit their closest family and friends in their own homes in groups of 3-5.
That's why we're going to have a second wave. A lot of economic activity could probably be accommodated to social distancing. But of course what people really want to do is socialise with one another - even if it means giving one another a potentially lethal disease.
People talking face-to-face, groups of people in enclosed spaces - that's the main way a disease like this spreads. It's not going to be brought back by an economic imperative - that could be handled. It's going to be brought back by people's instinct to socialise.
I don’t think that’s the case. People know the stakes now and it simply isn’t that infectious.
People won’t accept no socialising of any form indefinitely- I certainly won’t.
If the government tell me I can’t see any of my family until further notice (and for the rest of 2020 as a starting point) I will break the law.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
You may not have noticed, but the government asked for consent for a wide union and it was withheld
I didn't notice England ever being asked if it wanted to be part of the UK.
You’ve always viewed the UK and the EU as equivalent.
They are not. There are far greater cultural and linguistic entropies within the UK than across the English Channel.
That’s why the UK has worked but it’s membership of the EU hasn’t. You need a shared identity and demos.
FWIW, I think people could tolerate suspension of mass gatherings/concerts/ meets/ festivals etc. with thousands of people for 2-3 years.
They probably won't tolerate not being able to occasionally see and visit their closest family and friends in their own homes in groups of 3-5.
That's why we're going to have a second wave. A lot of economic activity could probably be accommodated to social distancing. But of course what people really want to do is socialise with one another - even if it means giving one another a potentially lethal disease.
People talking face-to-face, groups of people in enclosed spaces - that's the main way a disease like this spreads. It's not going to be brought back by an economic imperative - that could be handled. It's going to be brought back by people's instinct to socialise.
I don’t think that’s the case. People know the stakes now and it simply isn’t that infectious.
People won’t accept no socialising of any form indefinitely- I certainly won’t.
If the government tell me I can’t see any of my family until further notice (and for the rest of 2020 as a starting point) I will break the law.
Absolutely. It's bonkers, although listening to Whitty I believe he said "social distancing measures" or somesuch which is a long way from lockdown/the current status quo.
Or maybe (tinfoil hat: ON), as has been mooted, they are managing expectations and when BoJo returns he will free the country with a wave of his arm.
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
Or he is a real plonker
I've never seen a military figure in cammo. But maybe there's a reason for that...
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
It's just showboating. But seems to have had the intended effect on the people who it was intended to have an effect on.
So which rig should he wear for a press conference - No. 1, No. 13?
Given that he was probably wearing what he turned up in, for the rest of the day....
No.2 non ceremonial (No. 3 in the RN) would be the normal rig of the day for an officer not on ops. MTP cammo at a press conference in central London just makes you like a try hard twat.
He reminds me of somebody I served with who used to wear his life preserver and speed jeans to staff meetings. I suppose it was in case he pulled 7G putting the biscuits out.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Yes, the Swedish government have announced similar economic support measures to most other Western countries - a furlough scheme for the government to pay employee salaries, etc. This wouldn't be necessary if the economy was still open in the way that the virus vs economy argument is normally presented.
The difference between Sweden and other countries is much exaggerated.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
You may not have noticed, but the government asked for consent for a wide union and it was withheld
I didn't notice England ever being asked if it wanted to be part of the UK.
You’ve always viewed the UK and the EU as equivalent.
They are not. There are far greater cultural and linguistic entropies within the UK than across the English Channel.
That’s why the UK has worked but it’s membership of the EU hasn’t. You need a shared identity and demos.
It's not that I view them as equivalent, more that I think it exposes the cognitive dissonance of unionist Brexiteers.
The UK hasn't worked - it led to civil war and partition.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Yes, the Swedish government have announced similar economic support measures to most other Western countries - a furlough scheme for the government to pay employee salaries, etc. This wouldn't be necessary if the economy was still open in the way that the virus vs economy argument is normally presented.
The difference between Sweden and other countries is much exaggerated.
The difference is that the Swedes are treating people as adults and giving them the choice to behave as they wish. The advice is there, the support is there, but the force is not.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
You may not have noticed, but the government asked for consent for a wide union and it was withheld
I didn't notice England ever being asked if it wanted to be part of the UK.
You’ve always viewed the UK and the EU as equivalent.
They are not. There are far greater cultural and linguistic entropies within the UK than across the English Channel.
That’s why the UK has worked but it’s membership of the EU hasn’t. You need a shared identity and demos.
So if there isn't a shared identity and demos in 2020 UK then it would make sense to dissolve the UK would it not?
Wishing there were a shared UK identity doesn't make it so, any more than wishing there were a shared European identity.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I fiactions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the sameto assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
with the willing accession of the parties
prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
withheld
I didn't notice England ever being asked if it wanted to be part of the UK.
You’ve always viewed the UK and the EU as equivalent.
They are not. There are far greater cultural and linguistic entropies within the UK than across the English Channel.
That’s why the UK has worked but it’s membership of the EU hasn’t. You need a shared identity and demos.
It's not that I view them as equivalent, more that I think it exposes the cognitive dissonance of unionist Brexiteers.
The UK hasn't worked - it led to civil war and partition.
Which side did you fight on William ? Did you sustain any injuries.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
Speaking without any agenda on Sweden, this isn't the right way to do a trendline if you're trying to answer the question of whether they're past the peak. The problem is that- imagining for simplicity that the actual rate of infection follows a smooth, symmetrical inverted-U shape- you'd only see a downward-sloping linear trend line if you included more data points after the peak than before.
The curve probably isn't exactly an inverted-U, but the more general point stands that the shape of your line will be very sensitive to how far back in time you include data- even adding more days with 0 cases before the outbreak began would push back how long it'd be until we start to see a peak.
Ultimately you're making two incompatible assumptions: 1. that you should fit a linear trendline to the data, 2. that the data will have a peak (and therefore not be linear)
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I fiactions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the sameto assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
with the willing accession of the parties
prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
withheld
I didn't notice England ever being asked if it wanted to be part of the UK.
You’ve always viewed the UK and the EU as equivalent.
They are not. There are far greater cultural and linguistic entropies within the UK than across the English Channel.
That’s why the UK has worked but it’s membership of the EU hasn’t. You need a shared identity and demos.
It's not that I view them as equivalent, more that I think it exposes the cognitive dissonance of unionist Brexiteers.
The UK hasn't worked - it led to civil war and partition.
Which side did you fight on William ? Did you sustain any injuries.
You beat me to it. I don't recall any civil war or partition in my lifetime. Or my parents or grandparents lifetime either.
People need to get over history on both sides of this. What matters is the present and the future.
Another spin on Trump's Secretary of Health and Human Services appointee...
Special Report: Former Labradoodle Breeder Tapped to Lead U.S. Pandemic Task Force https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/22/us/22reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-specialreport.html ...As is now widely known, two agencies Azar oversaw as HHS secretary, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration, wouldn’t come up with viable tests for five and half weeks, even as other countries and the World Health Organization had already prepared their own. Shortly after his televised comments, Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years. Five sources say some officials in the White House derisively called him “the dog breeder.”...
Trump nominated Azar for his post at the end of 2017.
Predictable from the EU about the Netherlands. I remember writing that Germany and the other creditor nations would do well to give Dave what he wanted in the renegotiation otherwise they would find themselves in our position as the new hate figure for when things go wrong.
It being cherry picking seems rather beside the point to me. Negotiations will involve much cherry picking on both sides.
The issue would be whether it was in their interest to let us pick particular cherries. And if it would, is the price of conceding the principle too high.
It being cherry picking seems rather beside the point to me. Negotiations will involve much cherry picking on both sides.
The issue would be whether it was in their interest to let us pick particular cherries. And if it would, is the price of conceding the principle too high.
Is the point not rather that we are proposing to mutually pick each others cherries? Ie offer the EU continued access to our databases in exchange for theirs.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
I couldn't disagree more. The positive about the break-up of the UK is the EXACT SAME principle as to why we voted for Brexit - that control over laws is better exercised by those who vote for the law.
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
Surprisingly I agree with this completely and could not have worded it better, even though I am very pro EU. I believe in devolution to the greatest extent possible and self determination and a 9:1 ratio in the partnership is not healthy.
I had no strong feelings either way re the vote on independence and would have been happy if successful.
Ideally I would have liked to see an independent Scotland with both countries in the EU. I like the idea of their being a federation of countries working together but with maximum devolution. It is not a contradiction.
LOL @ CDS giving a press conference in his No.8 cammo rig just so we know this is srs bizniz. What a prick.
Senior military figures often seem to be seen in cammo for no reason. So I doubt it was so we know this is serious business. More likely it's so people remember who is who.
Or he is a real plonker
It may well be so but his attire is not likely part of that. I've only met 6 serving people ranked from colonel to brigadier, and they all were cammo at meetings with non military people.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Yes, the Swedish government have announced similar economic support measures to most other Western countries - a furlough scheme for the government to pay employee salaries, etc. This wouldn't be necessary if the economy was still open in the way that the virus vs economy argument is normally presented.
The difference between Sweden and other countries is much exaggerated.
The difference is that the Swedes are treating people as adults and giving them the choice to behave as they wish. The advice is there, the support is there, but the force is not.
I thought it was the U.K. who was criticised by Remainers for using security cooperation as a threat
It looks to me liked a leaked EU negotiating position to a friendly newspaper to me, which tells me they want to talk about it but just pull the rope a bit their way.
Either way I'm entirely relaxed about it. Our security services are way better than theirs and have better access to intelligence, so ultimately they need mutual co-operation on crime and terrorism more than we do.
With intelligence though more is better.
The best description I heard is that it is like repairing a broken mosaic. A single piece of information on its own may have no value but as part of picture it unlocks everything
Just read the obituary of your father in The Times, Charles. He sounded like a fantastic man and I'm sure you will have countless lovely memories of him.
Thank you, I appreciate that. People keep sending us more stories every day...
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Yes, the Swedish government have announced similar economic support measures to most other Western countries - a furlough scheme for the government to pay employee salaries, etc. This wouldn't be necessary if the economy was still open in the way that the virus vs economy argument is normally presented.
The difference between Sweden and other countries is much exaggerated.
The difference is that the Swedes are treating people as adults and giving them the choice to behave as they wish. The advice is there, the support is there, but the force is not.
Gathering over 50 people are banned.
Flights are banned.
Etc.
And the impacts are far different in Sweden than in neighbouring countries who have taken a different approach
FWIW, I think people could tolerate suspension of mass gatherings/concerts/ meets/ festivals etc. with thousands of people for 2-3 years.
They probably won't tolerate not being able to occasionally see and visit their closest family and friends in their own homes in groups of 3-5.
That's why we're going to have a second wave. A lot of economic activity could probably be accommodated to social distancing. But of course what people really want to do is socialise with one another - even if it means giving one another a potentially lethal disease.
We may not have a second wave and if we do it may not matter so much.
The government and NHS need to be upping testing capacity, PPE availability, ventilators and/or relevant treatment capacity as much as possible during the lockdown. After the lockdown ends (and it needs to end sooner rather than later, weeks not years from now) then we need to track and trace cases while ensuring there is abundant PPE and treatments available.
This was a time-limited excuse for the Govt. at the start of the epidemic: build up capacity to survive the first onslaught. Learn lessons. Get sorted. And ensure that a viable testing regime was in place for the end of lockdown.
The lockdown was needed to give that breathing space to get the NHS secured. It will not wash as an excuse for any subsequent lockdowns.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Yes, the Swedish government have announced similar economic support measures to most other Western countries - a furlough scheme for the government to pay employee salaries, etc. This wouldn't be necessary if the economy was still open in the way that the virus vs economy argument is normally presented.
The difference between Sweden and other countries is much exaggerated.
The difference is that the Swedes are treating people as adults and giving them the choice to behave as they wish. The advice is there, the support is there, but the force is not.
Gathering over 50 people are banned.
Flights are banned.
Etc.
You can go to a pub or restaurant with 48 of your friends while the kids are at school though!
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
Speaking without any agenda on Sweden, this isn't the right way to do a trendline if you're trying to answer the question of whether they're past the peak. The problem is that- imagining for simplicity that the actual rate of infection follows a smooth, symmetrical inverted-U shape- you'd only see a downward-sloping linear trend line if you included more data points after the peak than before.
The curve probably isn't exactly an inverted-U, but the more general point stands that the shape of your line will be very sensitive to how far back in time you include data- even adding more days with 0 cases before the outbreak began would push back how long it'd be until we start to see a peak.
Ultimately you're making two incompatible assumptions: 1. that you should fit a linear trendline to the data, 2. that the data will have a peak (and therefore not be linear)
I am indeed posting bullshit number manipulation.
I'm trying to demonstrate you can make the same figures say whatever the hell you want by placing a 'trend line' over them. As if a trend line is some kind of neutral statement about the data rather than an active choice by the person preparing the graph.
The linear line I stuck through it is of course totally bogus, there is zero justification for putting that line on the chart. But just as justified as the trend lines I am seeing littering twitter.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
You may not have noticed, but the government asked for consent for a wide union and it was withheld
I didn't notice England ever being asked if it wanted to be part of the UK.
You’ve always viewed the UK and the EU as equivalent.
They are not. There are far greater cultural and linguistic entropies within the UK than across the English Channel.
That’s why the UK has worked but it’s membership of the EU hasn’t. You need a shared identity and demos.
It's not that I view them as equivalent, more that I think it exposes the cognitive dissonance of unionist Brexiteers.
The UK hasn't worked - it led to civil war and partition.
It being cherry picking seems rather beside the point to me. Negotiations will involve much cherry picking on both sides.
The issue would be whether it was in their interest to let us pick particular cherries. And if it would, is the price of conceding the principle too high.
Is the point not rather that we are proposing to mutually pick each others cherries? Ie offer the EU continued access to our databases in exchange for theirs.
Certainly I think the implication that cherry picking is unacceptable is infantile. The EU are serious people, if they want to pick cherries they will request to do so, as will we, and much will be dismissed outright but some wont.
There is not some inviolate law of physics against cherry picking and until you ask, and make a reciprocal offer, who knows what you might get.
I see in the land of Covid Data Wranglers Sweden is absolutely 100% definitely past it's peak
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
From your data it 100% definitely doesn't look like exponential growth does it? So looks like they've successfully plateaued without a lockdown. Glad for them.
Sweden has a voluntary lockdown. Their economy is in the same shit as everywhere else.
Banning flights from China, USA etc seems like it was a good move for Sweden.
Yes, I really wish the press would hammer this question every single day until we get a proper answer as to why we're still allowing flights into the country. Following the science is a bullshit answer.
You don't even need to ban flights from everywhere. Just the places where you are think the infection rate is higher than your home country. That's not many places right now, but it is New York and perhaps Madrid.
I'd include places where you don't trust the government to publish accurate figures, either through deliberate deception or lack of administrative capability.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
I couldn't disagree more. The positive about the break-up of the UK is the EXACT SAME principle as to why we voted for Brexit - that control over laws is better exercised by those who vote for the law.
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
A hypothetical for you -
What do you think should happen if England wants to leave the UK but Scotland does not?
Patients will not be sent to the new Nightingale facility in Yorkshire for the time being, as the region’s existing hospitals continue to manage the surge in coronavirus cases.
The temporary hospital in Harrogate was officially opened today, with TV crews and local media invited to the site.
HSJ understands some staff had been lined up to start working at the hospital this week, but were told last week they were not needed as patients were not going to be referred there in the short term.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
I couldn't disagree more. The positive about the break-up of the UK is the EXACT SAME principle as to why we voted for Brexit - that control over laws is better exercised by those who vote for the law.
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
Surprisingly I agree with this completely and could not have worded it better, even though I am very pro EU. I believe in devolution to the greatest extent possible and self determination and a 9:1 ratio in the partnership is not healthy.
I had no strong feelings either way re the vote on independence and would have been happy if successful.
Ideally I would have liked to see an independent Scotland with both countries in the EU. I like the idea of their being a federation of countries working together but with maximum devolution. It is not a contradiction.
Yes, wouldn't it be great to have a rag tag collection of small countries within a vast putative superstate, 'maximum devolution' would surely be the outcome. Thank God we've got thinkers like you on the case.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Why should the union stop at the English Channel?
You may not have noticed, but the government asked for consent for a wide union and it was withheld
I didn't notice England ever being asked if it wanted to be part of the UK.
You’ve always viewed the UK and the EU as equivalent.
They are not. There are far greater cultural and linguistic entropies within the UK than across the English Channel.
That’s why the UK has worked but it’s membership of the EU hasn’t. You need a shared identity and demos.
So if there isn't a shared identity and demos in 2020 UK then it would make sense to dissolve the UK would it not?
Wishing there were a shared UK identity doesn't make it so, any more than wishing there were a shared European identity.
No, but I'd argue that there does exist enough of one to fight to maintain.
However I respect your position as principled and consistent. And more logical than those who make the argument that others are being illogical to think it possible one union arrangement works and another does not (whether they actually both work or not being a matter of opinion).
FWIW, I think people could tolerate suspension of mass gatherings/concerts/ meets/ festivals etc. with thousands of people for 2-3 years.
They probably won't tolerate not being able to occasionally see and visit their closest family and friends in their own homes in groups of 3-5.
That's why we're going to have a second wave. A lot of economic activity could probably be accommodated to social distancing. But of course what people really want to do is socialise with one another - even if it means giving one another a potentially lethal disease.
We may not have a second wave and if we do it may not matter so much.
The government and NHS need to be upping testing capacity, PPE availability, ventilators and/or relevant treatment capacity as much as possible during the lockdown. After the lockdown ends (and it needs to end sooner rather than later, weeks not years from now) then we need to track and trace cases while ensuring there is abundant PPE and treatments available.
This was a time-limited excuse for the Govt. at the start of the epidemic: build up capacity to survive the first onslaught. Learn lessons. Get sorted. And ensure that a viable testing regime was in place for the end of lockdown.
The lockdown was needed to give that breathing space to get the NHS secured. It will not wash as an excuse for any subsequent lockdowns.
If the government response to a second wave isn't absolutely tip-top, their poll rating will be through the floor and very difficult to ever recover.
What's the government doing to increase UK production of PPE ?
Unfortunately, this is not something you can do on short notice. It probably takes months to get new production lines up and running.
I have to say, more than slightly worried about this. Germany saying it will take them until August to get up to making 50 million masks a week. This is Germany, whose specialist subject is mass production of higher end stuff, and they are saying it is going to be several months to get this sort of capacity in place.
And the UK, we are only just tip-toeing towards masks might be a good idea, use a scarf. This isn't going to wash for very long and we need a plan, and fast. Otherwise, it will be like drive-through testing roll-out all over again.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
I couldn't disagree more. The positive about the break-up of the UK is the EXACT SAME principle as to why we voted for Brexit - that control over laws is better exercised by those who vote for the law.
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
A hypothetical for you -
What do you think should happen if England wants to leave the UK but Scotland does not?
Scotland can rue the day it didn't express it's love for the Union....
Comments
Also, he's not afraid of Trump, one of whose talents learned over a lifetime is sensing fear in others.
So it came to pass.
The low blood pressure is interesting. Do they have an idea of the mechanism ?
I plotted Swdish deaths over April until the 16th and then put a trendline through it
Of course I have not actual clue what is going on because I'm not an expert in the field, but what I am good at spotting is people pushing bullshit number manipulation to fit a preconceived agenda. Don't trust aynoe putting a trend line through anything without a description (with maths) of what the trend line is.
The best description I heard is that it is like repairing a broken mosaic. A single piece of information on its own may have no value but as part of picture it unlocks everything
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/fauci-trump/609916/
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1253270881830346752
(Guardian blog)
That is grimly awful.
I'm also not sure what Faisal is on about, 13.5 in the euro area also maps to something like a 30% reduction in GDP. Whether it's 29.8% or 30.4% really doesn't make a difference both numbers are terrible, there's no real difference.
It's what they wear by default.
It's just showboating. But seems to have had the intended effect on the people who it was intended to have an effect on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Partition_Plan_for_Palestine
People talking face-to-face, groups of people in enclosed spaces - that's the main way a disease like this spreads. It's not going to be brought back by an economic imperative - that could be handled. It's going to be brought back by people's instinct to socialise.
The government and NHS need to be upping testing capacity, PPE availability, ventilators and/or relevant treatment capacity as much as possible during the lockdown. After the lockdown ends (and it needs to end sooner rather than later, weeks not years from now) then we need to track and trace cases while ensuring there is abundant PPE and treatments available.
Given that he was probably wearing what he turned up in, for the rest of the day....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248429/Angela-Merkel-says-Germany-gone-FAR-easing-coronavirus-lockdown.html
If the Scots think they can better control their own laws than the English can then the Scots should be free to do so - and I think they could. It isn't healthy to have a union were 90% of the population is in one member, so the other 10% spend more time griping about the actions of politicians of the 90% than they do looking after themselves. If Scotland goes free it will be forced quickly to grow up and look after itself. That's a good thing.
Scottish politics today is infantilised by the union.
People won’t accept no socialising of any form indefinitely- I certainly won’t.
If the government tell me I can’t see any of my family until further notice (and for the rest of 2020 as a starting point) I will break the law.
They are not. There are far greater cultural and linguistic entropies within the UK than across the English Channel.
That’s why the UK has worked but it’s membership of the EU hasn’t. You need a shared identity and demos.
Or maybe (tinfoil hat: ON), as has been mooted, they are managing expectations and when BoJo returns he will free the country with a wave of his arm.
He reminds me of somebody I served with who used to wear his life preserver and speed jeans to staff meetings. I suppose it was in case he pulled 7G putting the biscuits out.
The difference between Sweden and other countries is much exaggerated.
The UK hasn't worked - it led to civil war and partition.
Wishing there were a shared UK identity doesn't make it so, any more than wishing there were a shared European identity.
The curve probably isn't exactly an inverted-U, but the more general point stands that the shape of your line will be very sensitive to how far back in time you include data- even adding more days with 0 cases before the outbreak began would push back how long it'd be until we start to see a peak.
Ultimately you're making two incompatible assumptions: 1. that you should fit a linear trendline to the data, 2. that the data will have a peak (and therefore not be linear)
People need to get over history on both sides of this. What matters is the present and the future.
Special Report: Former Labradoodle Breeder Tapped to Lead U.S. Pandemic Task Force
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/22/us/22reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-hhschief-specialreport.html
...As is now widely known, two agencies Azar oversaw as HHS secretary, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration, wouldn’t come up with viable tests for five and half weeks, even as other countries and the World Health Organization had already prepared their own.
Shortly after his televised comments, Azar tapped a trusted aide with minimal public health experience to lead the agency’s day-to-day response to COVID-19. The aide, Brian Harrison, had joined the department after running a dog-breeding business for six years. Five sources say some officials in the White House derisively called him “the dog breeder.”...
Trump nominated Azar for his post at the end of 2017.
The issue would be whether it was in their interest to let us pick particular cherries. And if it would, is the price of conceding the principle too high.
I had no strong feelings either way re the vote on independence and would have been happy if successful.
Ideally I would have liked to see an independent Scotland with both countries in the EU. I like the idea of their being a federation of countries working together but with maximum devolution. It is not a contradiction.
Flights are banned.
Etc.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/sam_cleal/uk-cities-quiz
The lockdown was needed to give that breathing space to get the NHS secured. It will not wash as an excuse for any subsequent lockdowns.
I'm trying to demonstrate you can make the same figures say whatever the hell you want by placing a 'trend line' over them. As if a trend line is some kind of neutral statement about the data rather than an active choice by the person preparing the graph.
The linear line I stuck through it is of course totally bogus, there is zero justification for putting that line on the chart. But just as justified as the trend lines I am seeing littering twitter.
Of course not......
There is not some inviolate law of physics against cherry picking and until you ask, and make a reciprocal offer, who knows what you might get.
What do you think should happen if England wants to leave the UK but Scotland does not?
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1253256695255650306?s=20
The temporary hospital in Harrogate was officially opened today, with TV crews and local media invited to the site.
HSJ understands some staff had been lined up to start working at the hospital this week, but were told last week they were not needed as patients were not going to be referred there in the short term.
https://www.hsj.co.uk/service-design/newly-opened-nightingale-to-remain-empty-for-time-being/7027465.article
I am guessing Delboy Trotter of Trotter Independent Trading wasn't behind this order?
Swedes not confident about their own economy
However I respect your position as principled and consistent. And more logical than those who make the argument that others are being illogical to think it possible one union arrangement works and another does not (whether they actually both work or not being a matter of opinion).
(Some of the boxes seemed a little off, I guess that's why it is multiple choice)
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/three-ways-to-make-coronavirus-drugs-in-a-hurry/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+ScientificAmerican-News+(Content:+News)
And the UK, we are only just tip-toeing towards masks might be a good idea, use a scarf. This isn't going to wash for very long and we need a plan, and fast. Otherwise, it will be like drive-through testing roll-out all over again.