I looked at @Black_Rook 's suggestion yesterday that under 60s be allowed to exit the lockdown due to their lower (comparative) risk. And because I wanted it to be feasible, I crunched the numbers.
There's a perception that covid-19 is "less fatal than seasonal 'flu for the under-60s, and we don't lock down for that," so surely we can do this?
Infectivity Problem is R0 (well, Rt - the transmission rate after interventions). In essence, most of the time, you aren't catching seasonal flu, even when someone around is infective. R0 for seasonal flu is around 1.3, and we vaccinate 14 million per year (over 20% of the population). This gives us almost the level we need for herd immunity, anyway (Rt goes to 1.02). Compare to R0 of 3.0 for coid-19 (may be higher).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of seasonal flu has infected 11.4 other people on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of 114 others over the season).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of covid-19 has infected 88,572 others on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of nearly 9 million others).
Exponential growth is a bastard.
Fatality rate Say, for the sake of argument, the death rate is only a tenth in our "freed" population. And it is 300 per day when we unlock (most of which are elderly). It would equate to only 30 per day in the "freed" population. Deaths doubling every 3-4 days means 120 per day after one week.
After 2 weeks, just under 500 per day.
After 3 weeks, 2000 per day (and, remember, these are the "freed" population).
Ah, but won't we hit herd immunity amongst this population? (I may be reaching for straws, but let's check to see if it's a straw or a vine)
The problem comes from saturation of the NHS (again). We escaped it this time, probably be a decent factor - but time is so crucial against an exponential rise (if we were only reaching 25% saturation of the NHS, then if we'd waited more than 7 days before imposing the restrictions we did, we'd have blasted past the maximum capacity while still accelerating. Exponential growth is a bastard).
Get past saturation, and those who need hospitalisation - don't get it. So what happens to you if you need hospital help and it's unavailable? One would expect your chance of death would go up quite significantly (otherwise, well, you didn't need hospital, did you?). If one third of those who need hospitalisation and don't get it end up dying, and the hospitalisation rate is compatible with an overall 0.66% IFR (which may be significantly too low, from the report yesterday) - Over 250,000 of the "freed" population will die
Okay, shift to only under fifties. (So I stay in the population). It improves - to a degree. Over 140,000 of them die.
Okay, only people up to their thirties. Over 70,000 die. Which looks better - but only in comparison to what we've seen before. If 70,000 were to die in "normal" circumstances, we'd be horrified.
Doesn't look to be a goer. Bugger.
Good analysis, but what if social distancing and large-scale meetings were capped with a culture of very good personal cleanliness.
What do the numbers look like then?
What does Rt go to?
I don't know. It would be good to see it modelled under different scenarios and assumptions, with +/- error bars added.
Under lockdown it's probably <1.0, and - unconstrained - it's anything between 2.2 and 3.1. So for social distancing and cleanliness culture it would probably be between 1.0 and 2.0.
If it's 1.2-1.4 we probably don't have a problem, particularly with track & trace. If it's 1.7-1.9 then maybe we do.
The NZ nurse who attended Johnson on R4 - he needed to be there, got same treatment as everyone else and didn’t get special treatment.
I get why she is saying what she is saying, but I would hope that the Prime Minister would get special treatment if necessary.
Not sure that doctors etc would accept that under modern medical ethics.
I remember being present when a stupid hack asked a very senior medical chap about his service in the Falklands. The mere suggestion that he would have treated Argentine and British casualties differently was taken as a disgusting attack on the surgeons medical ethics.
Surgeon Commander Rick Jolly (who commanded the military base hospital in the Falklands) is an exceptional man. He ran a hospital with very few deaths and two unexploded bombs in the roof, treating both sides by medical need.
I think he is unique in being decorated by both sides for the same action in the same war. A few years later he visited Argentina and effusively thanked by his former Argentine patients.
He is a great guy, and still living, I think. I saw him speak on the subject of treating bullet wounds based upon his work in Northern Ireland.
As a student, I had a summer job working in a shop that dealt with collectables. One day, a rather well to-do lady came in with a group of medals. Her late husband had been a medic and had worked his way up to being a physician to royalty. A price was agreed for the medals. Just as she was leaving, she turned and said "Oh, I'm not sure if you're interested. He had another medal. The family were a bit embarrassed about it..."
A couple of weeks later, in she came the other medal. An Iron Cross, issued on the orders of Hitler. Seems her late husband had been on a Royal Navy vessel before WW2, when a German ship had a fire onboard - and he went over and tended the injured. Such was the rarity of this, it turned a group worth a few hundred pounds into one worth £8,500....
Just got a message from Betfair saying they're restoring the next Conservative leader and Boris Johnson markets tomorrow.
Did they void then start afresh or have they suspended and resumed worth all bets in situ.
If its the latter then people who acted fast on Boris info can rightly feel incredibly pissed off.
I got that message yesterday saying that the markets would be unlocked in what is now just six minutes' time
Edit/ And it's the latter
And, yes, the BF markets are now unsuspended.
I will probably be judged for this but I laid Boris's exit at near evens moments before the markets were suspended, so I'm healthily green on this market now.
Over £200+ up if Boris exits in 2021, 2022 or 2023 and break even for 2024 or after.
If people were backing a 2020 exit at evens, they were the one taking the morbid side of the coin.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
So we should not ask for justice because there are some issues on which justice might be against us?
It takes 5 minutes looking at a map and a history book to see that the existence of NI is an anomaly.
Is Israel also an anomaly?
If Israel wants to hold a border poll, why shouldn't it?
I thought it was the U.K. who was criticised by Remainers for using security cooperation as a threat
It looks to me liked a leaked EU negotiating position to a friendly newspaper to me, which tells me they want to talk about it but just pull the rope a bit their way.
Either way I'm entirely relaxed about it. Our security services are way better than theirs and have better access to intelligence, so ultimately they need mutual co-operation on crime and terrorism more than we do.
UK officials have argued in the negotiations that they are making a pragmatic offer of strong cooperation and that a refusal to engage with the proposals will lead to a mutual loss in capability to fight crime and terrorism.
Sources suggested that those who claimed the UK was trying to attain the benefits of membership while outside the EU were misrepresenting the British position.
The UK’s chief negotiator, David Frost, has repeatedly emphasised that his stance builds on relationships the EU has with other so-called “third countries” not in the bloc.
The way the PMI works was always going to lead to this result. It normally relies on a comparison of winners v losers - it doesn't really take into account how big a loss. We're in a nation of losers and bigger losers at the moment.
Pity the question asked wasn’t “ has the NHS done a good job of supplying PPE to the NHS ?”
Or has PHE been thrown out of the public sector club for being crap ?
The Conservative Party has been responsible for the NHS for a decade so if there is a problem with PPE the buck most certainly stops with the government and health ministers in particular. Nice try at deflection though, you are nothing if not persistent in your attempts to pretend none of the problems are down to the government.
Some of us see it as a positive outcome of Brexit rather than an unfortunate consequence. It helps to right a historic wrong.
There's nothing positive about the break-up of the UK - whatsoever.
And I'd be very careful about reaching into history and arguing that your political preferences today help to correct some of those (heavily mythologised) wrongs, particularly where such black & white views could lead to all sorts of unintended consequences.
You might find your political opponents want to do the same when they take office over something they really value too.
So we should not ask for justice because there are some issues on which justice might be against us?
It takes 5 minutes looking at a map and a history book to see that the existence of NI is an anomaly.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
The NZ nurse who attended Johnson on R4 - he needed to be there, got same treatment as everyone else and didn’t get special treatment.
I get why she is saying what she is saying, but I would hope that the Prime Minister would get special treatment if necessary.
Not sure that doctors etc would accept that under modern medical ethics.
I remember being present when a stupid hack asked a very senior medical chap about his service in the Falklands. The mere suggestion that he would have treated Argentine and British casualties differently was taken as a disgusting attack on the surgeons medical ethics.
Surgeon Commander Rick Jolly (who commanded the military base hospital in the Falklands) is an exceptional man. He ran a hospital with very few deaths and two unexploded bombs in the roof, treating both sides by medical need.
I think he is unique in being decorated by both sides for the same action in the same war. A few years later he visited Argentina and effusively thanked by his former Argentine patients.
He is a great guy, and still living, I think. I saw him speak on the subject of treating bullet wounds based upon his work in Northern Ireland.
As a student, I had a summer job working in a shop that dealt with collectables. One day, a rather well to-do lady came in with a group of medals. Her late husband had been a medic and had worked his way up to being a physician to royalty. A price was agreed for the medals. Just as she was leaving, she turned and said "Oh, I'm not sure if you're interested. He had another medal. The family were a bit embarrassed about it..."
A couple of weeks later, in she came the other medal. An Iron Cross, issued on the orders of Hitler. Seems her late husband had been on a Royal Navy vessel before WW2, when a German ship had a fire onboard - and he went over and tended the injured. Such was the rarity of this, it turned a group worth a few hundred pounds into one worth £8,500....
Yes, there are examples of people decorated by both sides. I think what makes Rick Jolly unique is that both sides decorated him for the same action, rather than for different events.
I looked at @Black_Rook 's suggestion yesterday that under 60s be allowed to exit the lockdown due to their lower (comparative) risk. And because I wanted it to be feasible, I crunched the numbers.
There's a perception that covid-19 is "less fatal than seasonal 'flu for the under-60s, and we don't lock down for that," so surely we can do this?
Infectivity Problem is R0 (well, Rt - the transmission rate after interventions). In essence, most of the time, you aren't catching seasonal flu, even when someone around is infective. R0 for seasonal flu is around 1.3, and we vaccinate 14 million per year (over 20% of the population). This gives us almost the level we need for herd immunity, anyway (Rt goes to 1.02). Compare to R0 of 3.0 for coid-19 (may be higher).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of seasonal flu has infected 11.4 other people on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of 114 others over the season).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of covid-19 has infected 88,572 others on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of nearly 9 million others).
Exponential growth is a bastard.
Fatality rate Say, for the sake of argument, the death rate is only a tenth in our "freed" population. And it is 300 per day when we unlock (most of which are elderly). It would equate to only 30 per day in the "freed" population. Deaths doubling every 3-4 days means 120 per day after one week.
After 2 weeks, just under 500 per day.
After 3 weeks, 2000 per day (and, remember, these are the "freed" population).
Ah, but won't we hit herd immunity amongst this population? (I may be reaching for straws, but let's check to see if it's a straw or a vine)
The problem comes from saturation of the NHS (again). We escaped it this time, probably be a decent factor - but time is so crucial against an exponential rise (if we were only reaching 25% saturation of the NHS, then if we'd waited more than 7 days before imposing the restrictions we did, we'd have blasted past the maximum capacity while still accelerating. Exponential growth is a bastard).
Get past saturation, and those who need hospitalisation - don't get it. So what happens to you if you need hospital help and it's unavailable? One would expect your chance of death would go up quite significantly (otherwise, well, you didn't need hospital, did you?). If one third of those who need hospitalisation and don't get it end up dying, and the hospitalisation rate is compatible with an overall 0.66% IFR (which may be significantly too low, from the report yesterday) - Over 250,000 of the "freed" population will die
Okay, shift to only under fifties. (So I stay in the population). It improves - to a degree. Over 140,000 of them die.
Okay, only people up to their thirties. Over 70,000 die. Which looks better - but only in comparison to what we've seen before. If 70,000 were to die in "normal" circumstances, we'd be horrified.
Doesn't look to be a goer. Bugger.
To add to that - these are the optimistic numbers. The antibody test alluded to last night implied that the hospitalisation and death rates could be double what they are assumed to be in this calculation. And, of course, those needing hospitalisation and not getting it could easily be more likely to die than assumed. Numbers could very plausibly be as much as triple what they are above.
Some epidemiologists have questioned the ability of the virus to sustain exponential growth, because humans live in somewhat limited family and social circles, so do not have access to continual fresh victims to infect. Does your model take that into account?
Just got a message from Betfair saying they're restoring the next Conservative leader and Boris Johnson markets tomorrow.
Did they void then start afresh or have they suspended and resumed worth all bets in situ.
If its the latter then people who acted fast on Boris info can rightly feel incredibly pissed off.
I got that message yesterday saying that the markets would be unlocked in what is now just six minutes' time
Edit/ And it's the latter
And, yes, the BF markets are now unsuspended.
I will probably be judged for this but I laid Boris's exit at near evens moments before the markets were suspended, so I'm healthily green on this market now.
Over £200+ up if Boris exits in 2021, 2022 or 2023 and break even for 2024 or after.
Ditto (although for less money).
My thinking was that he was far less likely to die than the odds being traded - the atmosphere was overwrought and fevered - and death was (and is) the only way he would be exiting in 2020.
So, "Boris" lives, I make a tenner. Both of us equally happy.
Just got a message from Betfair saying they're restoring the next Conservative leader and Boris Johnson markets tomorrow.
Did they void then start afresh or have they suspended and resumed worth all bets in situ.
If its the latter then people who acted fast on Boris info can rightly feel incredibly pissed off.
I got that message yesterday saying that the markets would be unlocked in what is now just six minutes' time
Edit/ And it's the latter
And, yes, the BF markets are now unsuspended.
I will probably be judged for this but I laid Boris's exit at near evens moments before the markets were suspended, so I'm healthily green on this market now.
Over £200+ up if Boris exits in 2021, 2022 or 2023 and break even for 2024 or after.
If people were backing a 2020 exit at evens, they were the one taking the morbid side of the coin.
Indeed. I expected Boris to survive.
I make a bit of money on market overreactions. It's taken me years to learn the emotional self-discipline to do it.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
What did you make of the suggestion that Germany (for example) has a lower fatality rate partly because they actively admit patients at an earlier stage of disease progression ?
I think the rate would be better as the denominator would be bigger.
Whether spotting progression earlier in milder cases would give better outcomes is unknown. I suspect it would.
It was the second point I was interested in, so thanks for that (though it was more about earlier admission of cases which turned out to be serious).
@FrancisUrquhart yesterday posted an article by a NY (I think) medic on this, in which he described how patients, by the time they had been admitted, had already suffered significant lung damage, often without realising how ill they were.
Guns and tasers be used to force people to go for testing ?
That really wouldn't be necessary. As the government (and Raab yesterday) acknowledge, it is they who have are managing demand for tests. If the capacity were readily accessible, there are tens of thousands of healthcare and care home staff who would want testing now.
An interesting follow up - I mentioned a friend who has been given a kick by the hierarchy for daring to get things done in this crisis.
Apparently the latest thing is that her mangers are all running round, exclaiming in horror about the Government using the military "to bypass existing organisations". They apparently regard this as the beginnings of a "coup".
The utmost horror is reserved for cases where the military has been given lead position.
One day it will hit them that there was a reason the military have been put in charge of some of these things - it's because they'll quite happily swipe away all the middle management bureaucracy if it stops them actually getting sh!t done.
Too many public sector managers care far too much about processes than outcomes, they're all still covering their arses with the forthcoming enquiry in their heads.
Do we have stats on that question pre 2015 though?
I’m a mainland unionist who thinks it would be a shame but it’s up to them and if they decide to go I won’t really care. Nothing t do with Brexit though.
Interesting question.
I want to see NI and Scotland leave the Union not because of Brexit but because I think it is the right thing for them. I firmly think that NI and Scotland will develop better once they leave the Union so why would I back it?
I voted Leave, but that doesn't mean I want them to Leave because of Brexit. My opinions predate Brexit. However my philosophy that nations develop better if they take responsibility for their own actions underpins both my Brexit vote and my belief they'll do better if they leave - its the same logic for both.
If you believe in independence why would you deny it to others? Mr Meeks is wrong to assume that independence is a negative or bad thing.
I take the other approach: the Union is a family of nations, and like any family it is only sustainable with the willing accession of the parties
These islands are far stronger together and on the world stage when its constituent countries are united together.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Isolated in a recent European Union council of ministers, with attitudes described by European leaders past and present as “repugnant”.
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
The lockdown itself must be causing deaths. People having treatment cancelled, mental health problems, lack of support.
My dad passed away last week in a care home. We were unable to visit him for the last month. I'm sure that alone shaved several weeks off his life. The undertaker cheerfully told me they were very busy but that only a small percentage of the numbers were from covid.
I'm really sorry to hear that. My experience was similar, and not being able to visit for the last month was hard.
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as Chancellor next year? If so, is there any chance she could be asked to come over here and take over from Boris?
We could do with having a grown-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
Er, that's not happening... you missed the point where I said she's a grown-up.
Well she can stay in Germany then unless she wants to run for the LD leadership
According to some Covid-19 has done for Sindy; I wonder what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
Tbf those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
Yes. Well, the hospitalisation rate as a function of age, since that is what drives the fatality rate in the modelling once the NHS is saturated (which happens quite quickly). Numbers for hospitalisation rates against age taken from estimates at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196573/covid-19-one-five-over-80s-need-hospitalisation/ (which assumes 50% asymptomatic and an overall whole population IFR of 0.66%)
We don't know the exact fatality rate, but even assuming 2%, which is probably significantly on the high side, and noting that something like ten times as many over fifties appear to die from the infection as under fifties, that would give a 0.2% fatality rate.
Which if the entire under fifties population were infected would be somewhere around 100,000 deaths. And that is a high end estimate both of total infected and IFR.
For under thirties, I think the numbers would probably be somewhere around a tenth of that.
But of course allowing under thirties out unrestricted means they will very likely infect older people too.
That estimate is assuming they get care. If too many are infected, they won't be getting care.
1-2% of those in their 20s will need hospital care. 3.5-7% of those in their 30s. 4.3-8.6% of those in their forties, and 8.2-16.4% of those in their fifties.
What happens to them when the hospitals are full?
Don't know where you are getting those 'hospitalization rates' form considering we do know know exactly how many people have been infected?
The lockdown itself must be causing deaths. People having treatment cancelled, mental health problems, lack of support.
My dad passed away last week in a care home. We were unable to visit him for the last month. I'm sure that alone shaved several weeks off his life. The undertaker cheerfully told me they were very busy but that only a small percentage of the numbers were from covid.
I'm very sorry to hear that. The point about being unable to visit people in their final days, I find this to be one of the worst aspects of this "lockdown". And while I know there are good reasons for it, it is to me a prime example of an exception which perhaps ought to be made (with precautions).
Interesting discussion on James O'Brien about what Lockdown 2020 actually means. "Just stay locked down" isn't practicable regardless of the medical risks of the virus.
I looked at @Black_Rook 's suggestion yesterday that under 60s be allowed to exit the lockdown due to their lower (comparative) risk. And because I wanted it to be feasible, I crunched the numbers.
There's a perception that covid-19 is "less fatal than seasonal 'flu for the under-60s, and we don't lock down for that," so surely we can do this?
Infectivity Problem is R0 (well, Rt - the transmission rate after interventions). In essence, most of the time, you aren't catching seasonal flu, even when someone around is infective. R0 for seasonal flu is around 1.3, and we vaccinate 14 million per year (over 20% of the population). This gives us almost the level we need for herd immunity, anyway (Rt goes to 1.02). Compare to R0 of 3.0 for coid-19 (may be higher).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of seasonal flu has infected 11.4 other people on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of 114 others over the season).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of covid-19 has infected 88,572 others on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of nearly 9 million others).
Exponential growth is a bastard.
Fatality rate Say, for the sake of argument, the death rate is only a tenth in our "freed" population. And it is 300 per day when we unlock (most of which are elderly). It would equate to only 30 per day in the "freed" population. Deaths doubling every 3-4 days means 120 per day after one week.
After 2 weeks, just under 500 per day.
After 3 weeks, 2000 per day (and, remember, these are the "freed" population).
Ah, but won't we hit herd immunity amongst this population? (I may be reaching for straws, but let's check to see if it's a straw or a vine)
The problem comes from saturation of the NHS (again). We escaped it this time, probably be a decent factor - but time is so crucial against an exponential rise (if we were only reaching 25% saturation of the NHS, then if we'd waited more than 7 days before imposing the restrictions we did, we'd have blasted past the maximum capacity while still accelerating. Exponential growth is a bastard).
Get past saturation, and those who need hospitalisation - don't get it. So what happens to you if you need hospital help and it's unavailable? One would expect your chance of death would go up quite significantly (otherwise, well, you didn't need hospital, did you?). If one third of those who need hospitalisation and don't get it end up dying, and the hospitalisation rate is compatible with an overall 0.66% IFR (which may be significantly too low, from the report yesterday) - Over 250,000 of the "freed" population will die
Okay, shift to only under fifties. (So I stay in the population). It improves - to a degree. Over 140,000 of them die.
Okay, only people up to their thirties. Over 70,000 die. Which looks better - but only in comparison to what we've seen before. If 70,000 were to die in "normal" circumstances, we'd be horrified.
Doesn't look to be a goer. Bugger.
Good analysis, but what if social distancing and large-scale meetings were capped with a culture of very good personal cleanliness.
What do the numbers look like then?
What does Rt go to?
I don't know. It would be good to see it modelled under different scenarios and assumptions, with +/- error bars added.
Under lockdown it's probably <1.0, and - unconstrained - it's anything between 2.2 and 3.1. So for social distancing and cleanliness culture it would probably be between 1.0 and 2.0.
If it's 1.2-1.4 we probably don't have a problem, particularly with track & trace. If it's 1.7-1.9 then maybe we do. </p>
Spot on. Rt of 1.2 - very slow growth Rt of 1.9 - Hell's Bells, look at your infected population.
We need to find out what restrictions genuinely have the least health effect/maximum economic and psychological impact. As an example, I really want them to carry out more analyses of whether children are, in fact, unlikely to even carry covid-19 (there was an indication of that the other day, and I want to believe it, but it's important to find out if it's correct or not).
Pity the question asked wasn’t “ has the NHS done a good job of supplying PPE to the NHS ?”
Or has PHE been thrown out of the public sector club for being crap ?
The Conservative Party has been responsible for the NHS for a decade so if there is a problem with PPE the buck most certainly stops with the government and health ministers in particular. Nice try at deflection though, you are nothing if not persistent in your attempts to pretend none of the problems are down to the government.
And indeed with the reorganisation of Public Health England.
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
where I said she's a grown-up.
According to some Covi what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
Difficult to do in a majority support for Indy as it’s never existed.
That's not what was promised. What's the point in having capacity to test people if they need to drive 100 miles to get one done?
It will happen, but it's happened very slowly. It would have been perfectly possible to put the backbone of a testing infrastructure in place well before testing capacity was available.
Setting all of that up now is one of the reasons we'll stay in lockdown for several more weeks.
The lockdown itself must be causing deaths. People having treatment cancelled, mental health problems, lack of support.
My dad passed away last week in a care home. We were unable to visit him for the last month. I'm sure that alone shaved several weeks off his life. The undertaker cheerfully told me they were very busy but that only a small percentage of the numbers were from covid.
Sorry to hear about your loss, condolences to yourself and your family. We read a lot about death statistics over the past few weeks, but it's sometimes easy to forget that each death is a human being with family and friends who will be mourning and grieving.
Yes, there will be deaths caused by the lockdown - people are scared of going to hospital when sick, have mental health issues or other underlying conditions that require treatment.
There will also be a reduction in deaths that might be expected to happen in traffic or industrial accidents, as everyone is locked down.
On the actual virus deaths, it appears that the worst is possibly over now, everyone staying at home has indeed helped the NHS cope with the influx. The difficult call now is how much to ease the restrictions, without inducing a large second wave of infections - especially those transmitted in hospitals and on transport networks.
To be fair to him 49.7% of Welsh voters voted against having a Welsh Assembly in 1997 but only 25% of Scottish voters voted against having a Scottish Parliament
Did any of the journos taking ip.the case of the ppe suppliers ask them.how their price competitive they were in comparison to the suppliers who are getting contracts. .just a thought...
I looked at @Black_Rook 's suggestion yesterday that under 60s be allowed to exit the lockdown due to their lower (comparative) risk. And because I wanted it to be feasible, I crunched the numbers.
There's a perception that covid-19 is "less fatal than seasonal 'flu for the under-60s, and we don't lock down for that," so surely we can do this?
Infectivity Problem is R0 (well, Rt - the transmission rate after interventions). In essence, most of the time, you aren't catching seasonal flu, even when someone around is infective. R0 for seasonal flu is around 1.3, and we vaccinate 14 million per year (over 20% of the population). This gives us almost the level we need for herd immunity, anyway (Rt goes to 1.02). Compare to R0 of 3.0 for coid-19 (may be higher).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of seasonal flu has infected 11.4 other people on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of 114 others over the season).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of covid-19 has infected 88,572 others on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of nearly 9 million others).
Exponential growth is a bastard.
Fatality rate Say, for the sake of argument, the death rate is only a tenth in our "freed" population. And it is 300 per day when we unlock (most of which are elderly). It would equate to only 30 per day in the "freed" population. Deaths doubling every 3-4 days means 120 per day after one week.
After 2 weeks, just under 500 per day.
After 3 weeks, 2000 per day (and, remember, these are the "freed" population).
Ah, but won't we hit herd immunity amongst this population? (I may be reaching for straws, but let's check to see if it's a straw or a vine)
The problem comes from saturation of the NHS (again). We escaped it this time, probably be a decent factor - but time is so crucial against an exponential rise (if we were only reaching 25% saturation of the NHS, then if we'd waited more than 7 days before imposing the restrictions we did, we'd have blasted past the maximum capacity while still accelerating. Exponential growth is a bastard).
Get past saturation, and those who need hospitalisation - don't get it. So what happens to you if you need hospital help and it's unavailable? One would expect your chance of death would go up quite significantly (otherwise, well, you didn't need hospital, did you?). If one third of those who need hospitalisation and don't get it end up dying, and the hospitalisation rate is compatible with an overall 0.66% IFR (which may be significantly too low, from the report yesterday) - Over 250,000 of the "freed" population will die
Okay, shift to only under fifties. (So I stay in the population). It improves - to a degree. Over 140,000 of them die.
Okay, only people up to their thirties. Over 70,000 die. Which looks better - but only in comparison to what we've seen before. If 70,000 were to die in "normal" circumstances, we'd be horrified.
Doesn't look to be a goer. Bugger.
To add to that - these are the optimistic numbers. The antibody test alluded to last night implied that the hospitalisation and death rates could be double what they are assumed to be in this calculation. And, of course, those needing hospitalisation and not getting it could easily be more likely to die than assumed. Numbers could very plausibly be as much as triple what they are above.
Some epidemiologists have questioned the ability of the virus to sustain exponential growth, because humans live in somewhat limited family and social circles, so do not have access to continual fresh victims to infect. Does your model take that into account?
That's Rt. All exponential growth falls off once enough are infected (herd immunity), of course, and when the local population is exhausted. That's why cities have a hell of a time and rural areas could be better.
I reckon waiting 23 years for a 2nd vote about devolved powers seems acceptable to me. It sounds much better than people asking for another vote immediately after losing the first one don't you agree?
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
where I said she's a grown-up.
According to some Covi what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
Difficult to do in a majority support for Indy as it’s never existed.
You can’t kill what’s already dead.
And yet the WATPers of this world loudly and repeatedly keep proclaiming it's been done in. Sounds like you haven't even convinced yourselves.
de-devolution in Wales is not an unthinkable thing. There are a non-trivial number of Welsh people who would be happy to get rid of it - though no-where near a majority, IIRC
The lockdown itself must be causing deaths. People having treatment cancelled, mental health problems, lack of support.
My dad passed away last week in a care home. We were unable to visit him for the last month. I'm sure that alone shaved several weeks off his life. The undertaker cheerfully told me they were very busy but that only a small percentage of the numbers were from covid.
Very sorry to hear that. My condolences to you and your family.
, journalist like Andrew Neil fall for the government's latest spin because it matches his own ideological agenda.
I’m sorry that another government success has made you so furious.
A government missed target and dupes like you treat it as a success.
Better late than never, but Britain's testing during March and April has been lamentable.
But for TGOHF666 if something is a success its all down to the government and Boris, if it's a failure it's all down to the NHS and Civil Service. You can never win with somebody that has that mindset.
The NZ nurse who attended Johnson on R4 - he needed to be there, got same treatment as everyone else and didn’t get special treatment.
I get why she is saying what she is saying, but I would hope that the Prime Minister would get special treatment if necessary.
Not sure that doctors etc would accept that under modern medical ethics.
I remember being present when a stupid hack asked a very senior medical chap about his service in the Falklands. The mere suggestion that he would have treated Argentine and British casualties differently was taken as a disgusting attack on the surgeons medical ethics.
Surgeon Commander Rick Jolly (who commanded the military base hospital in the Falklands) is an exceptional man. He ran a hospital with very few deaths and two unexploded bombs in the roof, treating both sides by medical need.
I think he is unique in being decorated by both sides for the same action in the same war. A few years later he visited Argentina and effusively thanked by his former Argentine patients.
He is a great guy, and still living, I think. I saw him speak on the subject of treating bullet wounds based upon his work in Northern Ireland.
As a student, I had a summer job working in a shop that dealt with collectables. One day, a rather well to-do lady came in with a group of medals. Her late husband had been a medic and had worked his way up to being a physician to royalty. A price was agreed for the medals. Just as she was leaving, she turned and said "Oh, I'm not sure if you're interested. He had another medal. The family were a bit embarrassed about it..."
A couple of weeks later, in she came the other medal. An Iron Cross, issued on the orders of Hitler. Seems her late husband had been on a Royal Navy vessel before WW2, when a German ship had a fire onboard - and he went over and tended the injured. Such was the rarity of this, it turned a group worth a few hundred pounds into one worth £8,500....
Yes, there are examples of people decorated by both sides. I think what makes Rick Jolly unique is that both sides decorated him for the same action, rather than for different events.
Eddie Chapman (aka Agent Zigzag) won an Iron Cross and an MBE as a double agent during the war. Does that count as the same action?
Although Chapman's MI5 page claims he is the only British citizen to be awarded the Iron Cross, so unless @MarqueeMark's medic was foreign, we might have a pb scoop on our hands. https://www.mi5.gov.uk/eddie-chapman
Lots of people have assumed that HMG will monetise the Coronavirus deficit-spending by asking the BoE to print money to buy government bonds, but so far this is not happening.
My thinking is that this extra borrowing from the gilt market is helping to prevent a run on Sterling in the short-term, as it provides a relatively safe haven for the cash from share sales that might otherwise be turned into USD.
, journalist like Andrew Neil fall for the government's latest spin because it matches his own ideological agenda.
I’m sorry that another government success has made you so furious.
A government missed target and dupes like you treat it as a success.
Better late than never, but Britain's testing during March and April has been lamentable.
But for TGOHF666 if something is a success its all down to the government and Boris, if it's a failure it's all down to the NHS and Civil Service. You can never win with somebody that has that mindset.
The army have been a massive help - as has the private sector - have a little clap for both of them tonight - not just the Tory NHS.
One day it will hit them that there was a reason the military have been put in charge of some of these things - it's because they'll quite happily swipe away all the middle management bureaucracy if it stops them actually getting sh!t done.
Actual LOL. It once took me 14 months to get a £53 train ticket reimbursed.
The tories aren't using military personnel because they're relentlessly efficient no bullshit over achievers (some are but plenty aren't) they are doing it because their core vote very much likes that sort of martial veneration.
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
where I said she's a grown-up.
According to some Covi what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
Difficult to do in a majority support for Indy as it’s never existed.
You can’t kill what’s already dead.
And yet the WATPers of this world loudly and repeatedly keep proclaiming it's been done in. Sounds like you haven't even convinced yourselves.
One day it will hit them that there was a reason the military have been put in charge of some of these things - it's because they'll quite happily swipe away all the middle management bureaucracy if it stops them actually getting sh!t done.
Actual LOL. It once took me 14 months to get a £53 train ticket reimbursed.
The tories aren't using military personnel because they're relentlessly efficient no bullshit over achievers (some are but plenty aren't) they are doing it because their core vote very much likes that sort of martial veneration.
Ha, I knew you'd react to that one!
Stories from the ground suggest that HMQ's finest are doing a pretty good job at what they've been asked, and have a lot fewer artificial restrictions on getting the job done, than do their civvy counterparts.
Mr. Malmesbury, it's the Just World hypothesis - the view that people's actions tend to lead to morally deserved outcomes.
It's totally flawed, obviously.
True.
I saw a horrifying program a while back - it was about a couple whose daughter was literally a conscienceless monster. Literally. She would lie and commit any action to get what she wanted. The psychiatrists involved were actually afraid of this child - quite evidently.
Apparently there was no identifiable reason, and no cure for this. She will be a terrible danger to those around her, all her life.
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as Chancellor next year? If so, is there any chance she could be asked to come over here and take over from Boris?
We could do with having a grown-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
Er, that's not happening... you missed the point where I said she's a grown-up.
Well she can stay in Germany then unless she wants to run for the LD leadership
According to some Covid-19 has done for Sindy; I wonder what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
Tbf those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
, journalist like Andrew Neil fall for the government's latest spin because it matches his own ideological agenda.
I’m sorry that another government success has made you so furious.
A government missed target and dupes like you treat it as a success.
Better late than never, but Britain's testing during March and April has been lamentable.
But for TGOHF666 if something is a success its all down to the government and Boris, if it's a failure it's all down to the NHS and Civil Service. You can never win with somebody that has that mindset.
The army have been a massive help - as has the private sector - have a little clap for both of them tonight - not just the Tory NHS.
Feel free to organise one, I suspect it will be as successful as the attempt to organise a clap for Boris Boris is our PM by the way in case anyone is beginning to forget who he is) .
Stories from the ground suggest that HMQ's finest are doing a pretty good job at what they've been asked, and have a lot fewer artificial restrictions on getting the job done, than do their civvy counterparts.
You can certainly work squaddies a lot harder and longer than normal employees for less money. They do have to be micro-managed though.
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as Chancellor next year? If so, is there any chance she could be asked to come over here and take over from Boris?
We could do with having a grown-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
Er, that's not happening... you missed the point where I said she's a grown-up.
Well she can stay in Germany then unless she wants to run for the LD leadership
According to some Covid-19 has done for Sindy; I wonder what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
Tbf those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
To be fair the curling was a hammer blow.
Gutted.
If they were hitting the stones with a hammer, no wonder they lost....
One day it will hit them that there was a reason the military have been put in charge of some of these things - it's because they'll quite happily swipe away all the middle management bureaucracy if it stops them actually getting sh!t done.
Actual LOL. It once took me 14 months to get a £53 train ticket reimbursed.
The tories aren't using military personnel because they're relentlessly efficient no bullshit over achievers (some are but plenty aren't) they are doing it because their core vote very much likes that sort of martial veneration.
The efficiency will come from being given a task, which doesn't come into the normal remit of the organisation in question.
So the army will be quite efficient at building temporary hospitals in exhibition centres, because no-one in the army has constructed a large empire for temporary hospital building. Yet.
If you ask the army to organise something they are *supposed* to do, the results will probably be quite different.
Mr. Malmesbury, it's the Just World hypothesis - the view that people's actions tend to lead to morally deserved outcomes.
It's totally flawed, obviously.
True.
I saw a horrifying program a while back - it was about a couple whose daughter was literally a conscienceless monster. Literally. She would lie and commit any action to get what she wanted. The psychiatrists involved were actually afraid of this child - quite evidently.
Apparently there was no identifiable reason, and no cure for this. She will be a terrible danger to those around her, all her life.
It was certainly brave of Priti Patel's parents to share their problems in such a public forum as a television program.
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as Chancellor next year? If so, is there any chance she could be asked to come over here and take over from Boris?
We could do with having a grown-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
Er, that's not happening... you missed the point where I said she's a grown-up.
Well she can stay in Germany then unless she wants to run for the LD leadership
According to some Covid-19 has done for Sindy; I wonder what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
Tbf those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
To be fair the curling was a hammer blow.
Gutted.
If they were hitting the stones with a hammer, no wonder they lost....
The last stone in an end is called the hammer.
Please we need a little knowledge to get my awesome puns.
The U.S. government had never mounted a better interagency response to a crisis, Mr. Azar told the president in a meeting held eight days after the U.S. announced its first case, according to administration officials. At the time, the administration’s focus was on containing the virus.
When other officials asked about diagnostic testing, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, began to answer. Mr. Azar cut him off, telling the president it was “the fastest we’ve ever created a test,” the officials recalled, and that more than one million tests would be available within weeks.
That didn’t happen. The CDC began shipping tests the following week, only to discover a flaw that forced it to recall the test from state public-health laboratories. When White House advisers later in February criticized Mr. Azar for the delays caused by the recall, he lashed out at Dr. Redfield, accusing the CDC director of misleading him on the timing of a fix. “Did you lie to me?” one of the officials recalled him yelling....
I'm surprised anyone can manage without their cleaners. I can't afford one which is why I live in a pigsty. Pb's historians will recall that Churchill could not afford to pay for the twelve servants he'd need to move into Admiralty House, seven more than he already employed.
What did you make of the suggestion that Germany (for example) has a lower fatality rate partly because they actively admit patients at an earlier stage of disease progression ?
I think the rate would be better as the denominator would be bigger.
Whether spotting progression earlier in milder cases would give better outcomes is unknown. I suspect it would.
It was the second point I was interested in, so thanks for that (though it was more about earlier admission of cases which turned out to be serious).
@FrancisUrquhart yesterday posted an article by a NY (I think) medic on this, in which he described how patients, by the time they had been admitted, had already suffered significant lung damage, often without realising how ill they were.
Yes, I agree.
I think the Nightingale hospitals are best used in a Wuhan type funnel system, with admission of all cases, no matter how mild. They can be swabbed and contact traced, and quarantined for 14 days. Baseline bloods for inflammatory markers, renal function etc, and onward monitoring for progression.
My covid colleagues are finding low blood pressure and renal failure quite a problem, on top of the well known respiratory problems.
The U.S. government had never mounted a better interagency response to a crisis, Mr. Azar told the president in a meeting held eight days after the U.S. announced its first case, according to administration officials. At the time, the administration’s focus was on containing the virus.
When other officials asked about diagnostic testing, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, began to answer. Mr. Azar cut him off, telling the president it was “the fastest we’ve ever created a test,” the officials recalled, and that more than one million tests would be available within weeks.
That didn’t happen. The CDC began shipping tests the following week, only to discover a flaw that forced it to recall the test from state public-health laboratories. When White House advisers later in February criticized Mr. Azar for the delays caused by the recall, he lashed out at Dr. Redfield, accusing the CDC director of misleading him on the timing of a fix. “Did you lie to me?” one of the officials recalled him yelling....
The most surprising thing about the current US administration is Dr Anthony Fauci who seems to be talking sense.
We know why he is there - a previous appointment. But usually Trump has binned all the competent people...
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
where I said she's a grown-up.
According to some Covi what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
Difficult to do in a majority support for Indy as it’s never existed.
You can’t kill what’s already dead.
And yet the WATPers of this world loudly and repeatedly keep proclaiming it's been done in. Sounds like you haven't even convinced yourselves.
It’s not proclaiming - it’s mostly gloating.
I suppose your average Hun hasn't much to gloat about. Getting a few pints in on lockdown weekend maybe?
Mr. Malmesbury, it's the Just World hypothesis - the view that people's actions tend to lead to morally deserved outcomes.
It's totally flawed, obviously.
True.
I saw a horrifying program a while back - it was about a couple whose daughter was literally a conscienceless monster. Literally. She would lie and commit any action to get what she wanted. The psychiatrists involved were actually afraid of this child - quite evidently.
Apparently there was no identifiable reason, and no cure for this. She will be a terrible danger to those around her, all her life.
It was certainly brave of Priti Patel's parents to share their problems in such a public forum as a television program.
I'm surprised anyone can manage without their cleaners. I can't afford one which is why I live in a pigsty. Pb's historians will recall that Churchill could not afford to pay for the twelve servants he'd need to move into Admiralty House, seven more than he already employed.
In my single days, I always had a cleaner. Mainly because I rented a room to a friend, who was congenitally unable to clean up after himself. So I forced him to pay halves for a cleaner....
I remember having an argument with the cleaner in half English/half pigeon Portuguese... I was insisting that she wore a mask and lab grade goggles (which I provided, along with gloves) when she cleaned the oven. She thought it was silly. I was taking the view that the chemicals involved scared the hell out of me...
Isolated in a recent European Union council of ministers, with attitudes described by European leaders past and present as “repugnant”.
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
What did you make of the suggestion that Germany (for example) has a lower fatality rate partly because they actively admit patients at an earlier stage of disease progression ?
I think the rate would be better as the denominator would be bigger.
Whether spotting progression earlier in milder cases would give better outcomes is unknown. I suspect it would.
It was the second point I was interested in, so thanks for that (though it was more about earlier admission of cases which turned out to be serious).
@FrancisUrquhart yesterday posted an article by a NY (I think) medic on this, in which he described how patients, by the time they had been admitted, had already suffered significant lung damage, often without realising how ill they were.
Yes, I agree.
I think the Nightingale hospitals are best used in a Wuhan type funnel system, with admission of all cases, no matter how mild. They can be swabbed and contact traced, and quarantined for 14 days. Baseline bloods for inflammatory markers, renal function etc, and onward monitoring for progression.
My covid colleagues are finding low blood pressure and renal failure quite a problem, on top of the well known respiratory problems.
Surely right now contact tracing is a trivial matter?
Isolated in a recent European Union council of ministers, with attitudes described by European leaders past and present as “repugnant”.
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as Chancellor next year? If so, is there any chance she could be asked to come over here and take over from Boris?
We could do with having a grown-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
Er, that's not happening... you missed the point where I said she's a grown-up.
Well she can stay in Germany then unless she wants to run for the LD leadership
According to some Covid-19 has done for Sindy; I wonder what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
Tbf those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
To be fair the curling was a hammer blow.
Gutted.
If they were hitting the stones with a hammer, no wonder they lost....
The last stone in an end is called the hammer.
Please we need a little knowledge to get my awesome puns.
Oh and on the header, it is no surprise that Leavers love what the govt is doing as they are, generally, dim and willing to accept whatever they are told with little critical thinking.
Isolated in a recent European Union council of ministers, with attitudes described by European leaders past and present as “repugnant”.
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
Isolated in a recent European Union council of ministers, with attitudes described by European leaders past and present as “repugnant”.
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
Is Angela Merkel still planning to step down as Chancellor next year? If so, is there any chance she could be asked to come over here and take over from Boris?
We could do with having a grown-up in charge.
She would have to back hard Brexit
Er, that's not happening... you missed the point where I said she's a grown-up.
Well she can stay in Germany then unless she wants to run for the LD leadership
According to some Covid-19 has done for Sindy; I wonder what Brexit would look like in that alt-history where instead of Covid-19 we had had Covid-18, or even Covid-15?
Tbf those tend to be the people who said the 2012 Olympics has done for indy, the 2014 referendum result has done for indy, the birth of various royal sprogs has done for indy, Brexit has done for indy, the Alex Samond trial has done for indy, Ruth Davidson has done for indy, Scotland losing at the curling has done for indy etc. They are very consistent.
To be fair the curling was a hammer blow.
Gutted.
If they were hitting the stones with a hammer, no wonder they lost....
The last stone in an end is called the hammer.
Please we need a little knowledge to get my awesome puns.
I looked at @Black_Rook 's suggestion yesterday that under 60s be allowed to exit the lockdown due to their lower (comparative) risk. And because I wanted it to be feasible, I crunched the numbers.
There's a perception that covid-19 is "less fatal than seasonal 'flu for the under-60s, and we don't lock down for that," so surely we can do this?
Infectivity Problem is R0 (well, Rt - the transmission rate after interventions). In essence, most of the time, you aren't catching seasonal flu, even when someone around is infective. R0 for seasonal flu is around 1.3, and we vaccinate 14 million per year (over 20% of the population). This gives us almost the level we need for herd immunity, anyway (Rt goes to 1.02). Compare to R0 of 3.0 for coid-19 (may be higher).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of seasonal flu has infected 11.4 other people on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of 114 others over the season).
After 10 transmissions, the index case of covid-19 has infected 88,572 others on average (so a clump of 100 sufferers infects a total of nearly 9 million others).
Exponential growth is a bastard.
Fatality rate Say, for the sake of argument, the death rate is only a tenth in our "freed" population. And it is 300 per day when we unlock (most of which are elderly). It would equate to only 30 per day in the "freed" population. Deaths doubling every 3-4 days means 120 per day after one week.
After 2 weeks, just under 500 per day.
After 3 weeks, 2000 per day (and, remember, these are the "freed" population).
Ah, but won't we hit herd immunity amongst this population? (I may be reaching for straws, but let's check to see if it's a straw or a vine)
The problem comes from saturation of the NHS (again). We escaped it this time, probably be a decent factor - but time is so crucial against an exponential rise (if we were only reaching 25% saturation of the NHS, then if we'd waited more than 7 days before imposing the restrictions we did, we'd have blasted past the maximum capacity while still accelerating. Exponential growth is a bastard).
Get past saturation, and those who need hospitalisation - don't get it. So what happens to you if you need hospital help and it's unavailable? One would expect your chance of death would go up quite significantly (otherwise, well, you didn't need hospital, did you?). If one third of those who need hospitalisation and don't get it end up dying, and the hospitalisation rate is compatible with an overall 0.66% IFR (which may be significantly too low, from the report yesterday) - Over 250,000 of the "freed" population will die
Okay, shift to only under fifties. (So I stay in the population). It improves - to a degree. Over 140,000 of them die.
Okay, only people up to their thirties. Over 70,000 die. Which looks better - but only in comparison to what we've seen before. If 70,000 were to die in "normal" circumstances, we'd be horrified.
Doesn't look to be a goer. Bugger.
Good analysis, but what if social distancing and large-scale meetings were capped with a culture of very good personal cleanliness.
What do the numbers look like then?
What does Rt go to?
I don't know. It would be good to see it modelled under different scenarios and assumptions, with +/- error bars added.
Under lockdown it's probably <1.0, and - unconstrained - it's anything between 2.2 and 3.1. So for social distancing and cleanliness culture it would probably be between 1.0 and 2.0.
If it's 1.2-1.4 we probably don't have a problem, particularly with track & trace. If it's 1.7-1.9 then maybe we do. </p>
Merkel said if R was 1.1 Germany would run out of ICU beds by August, 1.2 by July. It really has to be kept below, or very close to 1.
Isolated in a recent European Union council of ministers, with attitudes described by European leaders past and present as “repugnant”.
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
Comments
Under lockdown it's probably <1.0, and - unconstrained - it's anything between 2.2 and 3.1. So for social distancing and cleanliness culture it would probably be between 1.0 and 2.0.
If it's 1.2-1.4 we probably don't have a problem, particularly with track & trace. If it's 1.7-1.9 then maybe we do.
They probably won't tolerate not being able to occasionally see and visit their closest family and friends in their own homes in groups of 3-5.
A couple of weeks later, in she came the other medal. An Iron Cross, issued on the orders of Hitler. Seems her late husband had been on a Royal Navy vessel before WW2, when a German ship had a fire onboard - and he went over and tended the injured. Such was the rarity of this, it turned a group worth a few hundred pounds into one worth £8,500....
Either way I'm entirely relaxed about it. Our security services are way better than theirs and have better access to intelligence, so ultimately they need mutual co-operation on crime and terrorism more than we do.
The country is in lockdown
Sources suggested that those who claimed the UK was trying to attain the benefits of membership while outside the EU were misrepresenting the British position.
The UK’s chief negotiator, David Frost, has repeatedly emphasised that his stance builds on relationships the EU has with other so-called “third countries” not in the bloc.
I wonder why.
https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1253105466038784000?s=20
There's a reason why lockdown can't last very long.
We share so much history, language, culture and values - and the same decidedly mixed climate and landmass.
We would be far weaker apart. Just look at the internecine squabbles we used to have prior to the 17/18th Century, and what's been achieved since.
Andrew Neil takes the opposite view, and those two balance each other out.
You seem to be unable to see this.
My thinking was that he was far less likely to die than the odds being traded - the atmosphere was overwrought and fevered - and death was (and is) the only way he would be exiting in 2020.
So, "Boris" lives, I make a tenner. Both of us equally happy.
I make a bit of money on market overreactions. It's taken me years to learn the emotional self-discipline to do it.
@FrancisUrquhart yesterday posted an article by a NY (I think) medic on this, in which he described how patients, by the time they had been admitted, had already suffered significant lung damage, often without realising how ill they were.
Are they doing a good job on PPE distribution? - no not so much.
It's pretty simple.
You seem unable to see why the views of one might be worth pointing out this morning, but not the other.
Too many public sector managers care far too much about processes than outcomes, they're all still covering their arses with the forthcoming enquiry in their heads.
It sounds like an old script of Britain in the EU. Yet it is the Netherlands that has found itself at the heart of the union’s most bitter row during the coronavirus pandemic. As EU leaders meet on Thursday for their fourth virtual crisis summit in seven weeks, the Dutch will once again be in the vanguard of opposition to plans for big spending on the recovery.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/how-covid-19-poured-cold-water-on-netherlands-eu-romance
https://naturallyfundamental.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/tin-snips-guy-SpaceX.jpg
An actually example of rocket surgery.
My experience was similar, and not being able to visit for the last month was hard.
Rt of 1.2 - very slow growth
Rt of 1.9 - Hell's Bells, look at your infected population.
We need to find out what restrictions genuinely have the least health effect/maximum economic and psychological impact. As an example, I really want them to carry out more analyses of whether children are, in fact, unlikely to even carry covid-19 (there was an indication of that the other day, and I want to believe it, but it's important to find out if it's correct or not).
https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1253031049971609600?s=20
You can’t kill what’s already dead.
It would have been perfectly possible to put the backbone of a testing infrastructure in place well before testing capacity was available.
Setting all of that up now is one of the reasons we'll stay in lockdown for several more weeks.
Yes, there will be deaths caused by the lockdown - people are scared of going to hospital when sick, have mental health issues or other underlying conditions that require treatment.
There will also be a reduction in deaths that might be expected to happen in traffic or industrial accidents, as everyone is locked down.
On the actual virus deaths, it appears that the worst is possibly over now, everyone staying at home has indeed helped the NHS cope with the influx. The difficult call now is how much to ease the restrictions, without inducing a large second wave of infections - especially those transmitted in hospitals and on transport networks.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8246919/The-violent-rampage-Diane-Abbotts-diplomat-son-James-Abbott-Thompson.html
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1253237987011375104?s=20
Did any of the journos taking ip.the case of the ppe suppliers ask them.how their price competitive they were in comparison to the suppliers who are getting contracts.
.just a thought...
All exponential growth falls off once enough are infected (herd immunity), of course, and when the local population is exhausted. That's why cities have a hell of a time and rural areas could be better.
Hmmm.. numbers!!!
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/83k4ahu8lh/Results_WelshBarometer_January2020_16+_W.pdf
25% would vote to remove Welsh devolution.
All too many people go round saying "they must have done... something"
Perhaps sometimes that is true. But many, many times, it is a terrible random fate.
The BBC's Timewatch documentary is due to be repeated on the 6th of May.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b017ctqp
Although Chapman's MI5 page claims he is the only British citizen to be awarded the Iron Cross, so unless @MarqueeMark's medic was foreign, we might have a pb scoop on our hands.
https://www.mi5.gov.uk/eddie-chapman
It's totally flawed, obviously.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/23/uk-seeks-to-borrow-225bn-to-fund-huge-surge-in-public-spending
My thinking is that this extra borrowing from the gilt market is helping to prevent a run on Sterling in the short-term, as it provides a relatively safe haven for the cash from share sales that might otherwise be turned into USD.
The tories aren't using military personnel because they're relentlessly efficient no bullshit over achievers (some are but plenty aren't) they are doing it because their core vote very much likes that sort of martial veneration.
Yes, of course it's satire, there's 16 pieces all 'by' spouses of Speccy writers. Alan White is the only person thinking it's in any way serious.
Stories from the ground suggest that HMQ's finest are doing a pretty good job at what they've been asked, and have a lot fewer artificial restrictions on getting the job done, than do their civvy counterparts.
I saw a horrifying program a while back - it was about a couple whose daughter was literally a conscienceless monster. Literally. She would lie and commit any action to get what she wanted. The psychiatrists involved were actually afraid of this child - quite evidently.
Apparently there was no identifiable reason, and no cure for this. She will be a terrible danger to those around her, all her life.
Gutted.
So the army will be quite efficient at building temporary hospitals in exhibition centres, because no-one in the army has constructed a large empire for temporary hospital building. Yet.
If you ask the army to organise something they are *supposed* to do, the results will probably be quite different.
Well, most of them anyways, some of the 'mass' protests barely got over a dozen attending.
Please we need a little knowledge to get my awesome puns.
Health Chief’s Early Missteps Set Back Coronavirus Response
https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-chiefs-early-missteps-set-back-coronavirus-response-11587570514
...WASHINGTON—On Jan. 29, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told President Trump the coronavirus epidemic was under control.
The U.S. government had never mounted a better interagency response to a crisis, Mr. Azar told the president in a meeting held eight days after the U.S. announced its first case, according to administration officials. At the time, the administration’s focus was on containing the virus.
When other officials asked about diagnostic testing, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, began to answer. Mr. Azar cut him off, telling the president it was “the fastest we’ve ever created a test,” the officials recalled, and that more than one million tests would be available within weeks.
That didn’t happen. The CDC began shipping tests the following week, only to discover a flaw that forced it to recall the test from state public-health laboratories. When White House advisers later in February criticized Mr. Azar for the delays caused by the recall, he lashed out at Dr. Redfield, accusing the CDC director of misleading him on the timing of a fix. “Did you lie to me?” one of the officials recalled him yelling....
Trump said his CDC director was ‘misquoted.’ Then his CDC director said he was ‘accurately quoted.’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/22/trumps-strange-quibble-with-his-cdc-directors-quote-reinforces-danger-his-coronavirus-alternate-reality/
Robert Redfield’s warning of a coronavirus redux — and Trump’s pushback — highlight the president’s see-no-evil approach to the pandemic
I think the Nightingale hospitals are best used in a Wuhan type funnel system, with admission of all cases, no matter how mild. They can be swabbed and contact traced, and quarantined for 14 days. Baseline bloods for inflammatory markers, renal function etc, and onward monitoring for progression.
My covid colleagues are finding low blood pressure and renal failure quite a problem, on top of the well known respiratory problems.
We know why he is there - a previous appointment. But usually Trump has binned all the competent people...
https://tinyurl.com/ybl9elqn
I remember having an argument with the cleaner in half English/half pigeon Portuguese... I was insisting that she wore a mask and lab grade goggles (which I provided, along with gloves) when she cleaned the oven. She thought it was silly. I was taking the view that the chemicals involved scared the hell out of me...