That absolute bellend Hague gets his beak in everywhere with his usually crap opinions, a more useless fool we have yet to see. On teh main point it is desperate if the unionist loving Herald are supporting the SNP.
It is indeed surprising. I noticed one tweeter couldn't believe it and assumed it was the National - which has a quite different URL.
Wouldn't it be better if the government just reported the final figures for each day? A lot of people must be confused by having two sets of numbers for each day. Every Tuesday they probably think things are getting worse compared to the weekend.
Yes it would be wonderfull if all data were accurate, complete and up to date? You obviously haven't worked with real data
SINGAPORE - Foreign workers living in dormitories made up 1,050 of the 1,111 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday (April 21), as the total number of cases in Singapore crossed the 9,000 mark
Interesting spin, instead of "new record high" they lead with "Foreign workers"....so that's alright then....
SINGAPORE - The circuit breaker to choke off the spread of the coronavirus will be extended by another month to June 1, and existing measures will be tightened until May 4, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his fourth national address on the situation on Tuesday (April 21).
This means that more workplaces will be closed to further reduce the number of workers keeping essential services going. Some hot spots, such as popular wet markets, remain a problem, as large groups of people continue to congregate there, Mr Lee said.
While he noted that the circuit breaker measures have been working, he stressed that Singapore cannot be complacent. He said the number of unlinked cases has not come down, which suggests a "hidden reservoir" of cases in the community.
The gilt does seem to be coming off the gingerbread of some of the early success stories.
As with our care homes, foreign worker dormitories were a disaster waiting to happen in Singapore - quite possibly exacerbated by the Lock Down they've introduced - instead of spending only their sleeping hours there, the foreign workers will now be spending all their waking hours too.
It's an unusual mis-step for Singapore - but I suspects, as with our elderly in care homes, foreign workers were nowhere on anyone's agenda.
Also farm workers in the UK - the kind who come from overseas and are accommodated crowded together in caravans etc. - seem to be nowhere on the agenda much.
Workplace testing is the key to getting anywhere near the 100k per day.
Just starting to roll some of this out. Still not testing asymptomatic front line NHS workers yet?
Yup, it's completely crazy. The testing and tracing strategy needs to be rolled out to NHS workers ASAP. It's clear that hospitals are still a huge transmission source but we're not testing any of them. Just picking 10,000 of them randomly and doing the tests would give us an idea of the current infection rate for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Why are we wasting the supposed capacity and not testing them.
That absolute bellend Hague gets his beak in everywhere with his usually crap opinions, a more useless fool we have yet to see. On teh main point it is desperate if the unionist loving Herald are supporting the SNP.
How did i know that was yiu Malc without canning up to the posters name
Here's the paper setting out the details of the government sponsored analysis of the rapid antibody kits which didn't come up to snuff. Disappointingly, the manufacturers are not identified.
Evaluation of antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 using ELISA and lateral flow immunoassays https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066407v1.full.pdf ...Results: ELISA detected SARS-CoV-2 IgM or IgG in 34/40 individuals with an RT-PCR-confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection (sensitivity 85%, 95%CI 70-94%), vs 0/50 pre-pandemic controls (specificity 100% [95%CI 93-100%]). IgG levels were detected in 31/31 RT-PCR- positive individuals tested ≥10 days after symptom onset (sensitivity 100%, 95%CI 89-100%). IgG titres rose during the 3 weeks post symptom onset and began to fall by 8 weeks, but remained above the detection threshold. Point estimates for the sensitivity of LFIA devices ranged from 55-70% versus RT-PCR and 65-85% versus ELISA, with specificity 95-100% and 93-100% respectively. Within the limits of the study size, the performance of most LFIA devices was similar. Conclusions: The performance of current LFIA devices is inadequate for most individual patient applications. ELISA can be calibrated to be specific for detecting and quantifying SARS- CoV-2 IgM and IgG and is highly sensitive for IgG from 10 days following symptoms onset....
So they were (are?) not capable of showing accurately whether someone has had coronavirus, but presumably pretty good at showing whether someone has got it. If this is the case, I don't know why a use has not yet been found for them.
Wouldn't it be better if the government just reported the final figures for each day? A lot of people must be confused by having two sets of numbers for each day. Every Tuesday they probably think things are getting worse compared to the weekend.
Yes it would be wonderfull if all data were accurate, complete and up to date? You obviously haven't worked with real data
Or complex systems where you never have all the data, or even all the questions.
Wouldn't it be better if the government just reported the final figures for each day? A lot of people must be confused by having two sets of numbers for each day. Every Tuesday they probably think things are getting worse compared to the weekend.
That chart shows we still don't have final figures for any day - they're still increasing for each day on the chart, all the way back to 6th April
In order to show comparable figures, you can use the provided figures for the number of deaths ascribed to each date on the day after they come out of the grey "unreliable data" area.
Bearing in mind that each number still climbs afterwards - but comparing the latest figure for each day isn't comparing like with like (for example, we've had an extra 6 days of data for 06-Apr than for 12-Apr, and an extra 31 deaths have been recorded for 06-Apr in those extra 6 days).
So, with those caveats, to compare known deaths as of 6 days after the date in question, to give us the longest baseline with comparable and fairly reliable data:
It does look, at first glance, to be trending slightly downwards since hitting the plateau. To be honest, taking into account daily fluctuation, I'd suggest the "peak" (and, yes, it's not very sharp as peaks go) might, on average, be a day or two prior to the 8th of April (with the 8th just being unlucky in terms of fluctuation).
Not a very steep decline since the putative peak, but better than any sort of climb, much less the rapid climbing we saw before. And we can hope the decline could still accelerate (subject to daily variation)
Anything beyond the 15th is using numbers they themselves stress are unreliable and subject to major changes (as can be seen by the orange bars that are almost adding as we go).
For any day in the past three weeks, a graph using the same criteria would always show a rapid drop off in the past five days. Even when going through the absolute peak - so on the 9th, for example, it would show a huge fall off on the 8th of April to only 140 deaths, We now see that as the peak - after 5 days of information were reported, it was up to 750 deaths; with another week of reporting, it's up to 815 deaths
Here's the paper setting out the details of the government sponsored analysis of the rapid antibody kits which didn't come up to snuff. Disappointingly, the manufacturers are not identified.
Evaluation of antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 using ELISA and lateral flow immunoassays https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066407v1.full.pdf ...Results: ELISA detected SARS-CoV-2 IgM or IgG in 34/40 individuals with an RT-PCR-confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection (sensitivity 85%, 95%CI 70-94%), vs 0/50 pre-pandemic controls (specificity 100% [95%CI 93-100%]). IgG levels were detected in 31/31 RT-PCR- positive individuals tested ≥10 days after symptom onset (sensitivity 100%, 95%CI 89-100%). IgG titres rose during the 3 weeks post symptom onset and began to fall by 8 weeks, but remained above the detection threshold. Point estimates for the sensitivity of LFIA devices ranged from 55-70% versus RT-PCR and 65-85% versus ELISA, with specificity 95-100% and 93-100% respectively. Within the limits of the study size, the performance of most LFIA devices was similar. Conclusions: The performance of current LFIA devices is inadequate for most individual patient applications. ELISA can be calibrated to be specific for detecting and quantifying SARS- CoV-2 IgM and IgG and is highly sensitive for IgG from 10 days following symptoms onset....
Looks like they tested 9 different kits. All busts.
For all you aspiring gym bunnies out there, this is todays WoD, with instruction videos. I predict you will know you have done this one. Just doing the warmup is quite useful.
I promise not to post another one even if you ignore the technical bits :-), and get back to gardening. Me: 8 miles bike and 30 minutes yoga.
(Lumme, I wasn't expecting it to insert all the videos)
Warm up: 5 rounds 1:00 side plank, each side 30 glute bridges 20 bird-dogs 10 lunges with twist
Lower body injury: Swap lunges for push ups
Strength: Bulgarian Split squats - complete 5 sets of 8 per leg bulgarian split squats 👏👏
Lower body injury: Swap for 5 x 8 reps shoulder press per arm, single object.
Metcon: Complete 5 rounds of 10 single arm devil press, followed by 10 box jumps. Fast sprint style workout! Go HAM
Lower body injury: 10 devil press + 10 v ups Upper body injury: instead of snatching dumbbell, pull to your shoulder (clean).
Workplace testing is the key to getting anywhere near the 100k per day.
Just starting to roll some of this out. Still not testing asymptomatic front line NHS workers yet?
Yup, it's completely crazy. The testing and tracing strategy needs to be rolled out to NHS workers ASAP. It's clear that hospitals are still a huge transmission source but we're not testing any of them. Just picking 10,000 of them randomly and doing the tests would give us an idea of the current infection rate for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Why are we wasting the supposed capacity and not testing them.
A question for todays presser
Too much to expect @bbclaurak at al will be that sensible though.
Wouldn't it be better if the government just reported the final figures for each day? A lot of people must be confused by having two sets of numbers for each day. Every Tuesday they probably think things are getting worse compared to the weekend.
That chart shows we still don't have final figures for any day - they're still increasing for each day on the chart, all the way back to 6th April
In order to show comparable figures, you can use the provided figures for the number of deaths ascribed to each date on the day after they come out of the grey "unreliable data" area.
Bearing in mind that each number still climbs afterwards - but comparing the latest figure for each day isn't comparing like with like (for example, we've had an extra 6 days of data for 06-Apr than for 12-Apr, and an extra 31 deaths have been recorded for 06-Apr in those extra 6 days).
So, with those caveats, to compare known deaths as of 6 days after the date in question, to give us the longest baseline with comparable and fairly reliable data:
It does look, at first glance, to be trending slightly downwards since hitting the plateau. To be honest, taking into account daily fluctuation, I'd suggest the "peak" (and, yes, it's not very sharp as peaks go) might, on average, be a day or two prior to the 8th of April (with the 8th just being unlucky in terms of fluctuation).
Not a very steep decline since the putative peak, but better than any sort of climb, much less the rapid climbing we saw before. And we can hope the decline could still accelerate (subject to daily variation)
SINGAPORE - Foreign workers living in dormitories made up 1,050 of the 1,111 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday (April 21), as the total number of cases in Singapore crossed the 9,000 mark
Interesting spin, instead of "new record high" they lead with "Foreign workers"....so that's alright then....
SINGAPORE - The circuit breaker to choke off the spread of the coronavirus will be extended by another month to June 1, and existing measures will be tightened until May 4, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his fourth national address on the situation on Tuesday (April 21).
This means that more workplaces will be closed to further reduce the number of workers keeping essential services going. Some hot spots, such as popular wet markets, remain a problem, as large groups of people continue to congregate there, Mr Lee said.
While he noted that the circuit breaker measures have been working, he stressed that Singapore cannot be complacent. He said the number of unlinked cases has not come down, which suggests a "hidden reservoir" of cases in the community.
SINGAPORE - Foreign workers living in dormitories made up 1,050 of the 1,111 new coronavirus cases on Tuesday (April 21), as the total number of cases in Singapore crossed the 9,000 mark
Interesting spin, instead of "new record high" they lead with "Foreign workers"....so that's alright then....
SINGAPORE - The circuit breaker to choke off the spread of the coronavirus will be extended by another month to June 1, and existing measures will be tightened until May 4, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in his fourth national address on the situation on Tuesday (April 21).
This means that more workplaces will be closed to further reduce the number of workers keeping essential services going. Some hot spots, such as popular wet markets, remain a problem, as large groups of people continue to congregate there, Mr Lee said.
While he noted that the circuit breaker measures have been working, he stressed that Singapore cannot be complacent. He said the number of unlinked cases has not come down, which suggests a "hidden reservoir" of cases in the community.
Workplace testing is the key to getting anywhere near the 100k per day.
Just starting to roll some of this out. Still not testing asymptomatic front line NHS workers yet?
Yup, it's completely crazy. The testing and tracing strategy needs to be rolled out to NHS workers ASAP. It's clear that hospitals are still a huge transmission source but we're not testing any of them. Just picking 10,000 of them randomly and doing the tests would give us an idea of the current infection rate for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Why are we wasting the supposed capacity and not testing them.
They are 'offering tests' now, from last week to care home workers too, apparently.
Workplace testing is the key to getting anywhere near the 100k per day.
Just starting to roll some of this out. Still not testing asymptomatic front line NHS workers yet?
Yup, it's completely crazy. The testing and tracing strategy needs to be rolled out to NHS workers ASAP. It's clear that hospitals are still a huge transmission source but we're not testing any of them. Just picking 10,000 of them randomly and doing the tests would give us an idea of the current infection rate for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Why are we wasting the supposed capacity and not testing them.
They are 'offering tests' now, from last week to care home workers too, apparently.
That absolute bellend Hague gets his beak in everywhere with his usually crap opinions, a more useless fool we have yet to see. On teh main point it is desperate if the unionist loving Herald are supporting the SNP.
It is indeed surprising. I noticed one tweeter couldn't believe it and assumed it was the National - which has a quite different URL.
The journalist responsible is just a bit of a nutter is he not? Is he not the one who used to be a Nat, then did he not do that article featuring the Salmond trial alongside pictures of Peter Sutcliffe? Shock jock being a shock jock is the kindest explanation.
Personally, I think this might be Nicola's only chance to face down the Salmondites. Has she admitted there won't be an indyref in 2020 yet? She should just do it.
Here's the paper setting out the details of the government sponsored analysis of the rapid antibody kits which didn't come up to snuff. Disappointingly, the manufacturers are not identified.
Looks like they tested 9 different kits. All busts.
There are more accurate (and slower) alternatives, of course. Evaluation of nine commercial SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.09.20056325v1.full.pdf ...Due to urgency and demand, numerous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoassays are rapidly being developed and placed on the market with limited validation on clinical samples. Thorough validation of serological tests are required to facilitate their use in the accurate diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection, confirmation of molecular results, contact tracing, and epidemiological studies. This study evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of nine commercially available serological tests. These included three enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and six point-of-care (POC) lateral flow tests. The assays were validated using serum samples from: i) SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive patients with a documented first day of disease; ii) archived sera obtained from healthy individuals before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in China; iii) sera from patients with acute viral respiratory tract infections caused by other coronaviruses or non- coronaviruses; and iv) sera from patients positive for dengue virus, cytomegalovirus and Epstein Barr virus. The results showed 100% specificity for the Wantai SARS-CoV-2 Total Antibody ELISA, 93% for the Euroimmun IgA ELISA, and 96% for the Euroimmun IgG ELISA with sensitivities of 90%, 90%, and 65%, respectively. The overall performance of the POC tests according to manufacturer were in the rank order of AutoBio Diagnostics > Dynamiker Biotechnology = CTK Biotech > Artron Laboratories > Acro Biotech ≥ Hangzhou Alltest Biotech. Overall, these findings will facilitate selection of serological assays for the detection SARS- CoV-2-specific antibodies towards diagnosis as well as sero-epidemiological and vaccine development studies.... ...Four POC tests were tested on all 30 case serum samples and had sensitivities in the rank order of 93% for AutoBio Diagnostics, 90% Dynamiker Biotechnology and CTK Biotech, and 83% for Artron Laboratories (Table 1). The positive predictive value of these tests were 100%, while the negative predictive values were 91%, 89%, 89%, and 74%, respectively...
As an aside, the apparently most accurate systems in each category are Chinese.
Workplace testing is the key to getting anywhere near the 100k per day.
Just starting to roll some of this out. Still not testing asymptomatic front line NHS workers yet?
Yup, it's completely crazy. The testing and tracing strategy needs to be rolled out to NHS workers ASAP. It's clear that hospitals are still a huge transmission source but we're not testing any of them. Just picking 10,000 of them randomly and doing the tests would give us an idea of the current infection rate for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Why are we wasting the supposed capacity and not testing them.
They are 'offering tests' now, from last week to care home workers too, apparently.
Not good enough..but 1) quick google shows its 60 miles, so 120 mile round trip, 2) why are they been sent there and not to say the ones in NW london e.g. wembley.
Here's the paper setting out the details of the government sponsored analysis of the rapid antibody kits which didn't come up to snuff. Disappointingly, the manufacturers are not identified.
Evaluation of antibody testing for SARS-CoV-2 using ELISA and lateral flow immunoassays https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066407v1.full.pdf ...Results: ELISA detected SARS-CoV-2 IgM or IgG in 34/40 individuals with an RT-PCR-confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection (sensitivity 85%, 95%CI 70-94%), vs 0/50 pre-pandemic controls (specificity 100% [95%CI 93-100%]). IgG levels were detected in 31/31 RT-PCR- positive individuals tested ≥10 days after symptom onset (sensitivity 100%, 95%CI 89-100%). IgG titres rose during the 3 weeks post symptom onset and began to fall by 8 weeks, but remained above the detection threshold. Point estimates for the sensitivity of LFIA devices ranged from 55-70% versus RT-PCR and 65-85% versus ELISA, with specificity 95-100% and 93-100% respectively. Within the limits of the study size, the performance of most LFIA devices was similar. Conclusions: The performance of current LFIA devices is inadequate for most individual patient applications. ELISA can be calibrated to be specific for detecting and quantifying SARS- CoV-2 IgM and IgG and is highly sensitive for IgG from 10 days following symptoms onset....
Looks like they tested 9 different kits. All busts.
Workplace testing is the key to getting anywhere near the 100k per day.
Just starting to roll some of this out. Still not testing asymptomatic front line NHS workers yet?
Yup, it's completely crazy. The testing and tracing strategy needs to be rolled out to NHS workers ASAP. It's clear that hospitals are still a huge transmission source but we're not testing any of them. Just picking 10,000 of them randomly and doing the tests would give us an idea of the current infection rate for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Why are we wasting the supposed capacity and not testing them.
They are 'offering tests' now, from last week to care home workers too, apparently.
Not good enough..but 1) quick google shows its 60 miles, so 120 mile round trip, 2) why are they been sent their and not to say the ones in NW london e.g. wembley.
Workplace testing is the key to getting anywhere near the 100k per day.
Just starting to roll some of this out. Still not testing asymptomatic front line NHS workers yet?
Yup, it's completely crazy. The testing and tracing strategy needs to be rolled out to NHS workers ASAP. It's clear that hospitals are still a huge transmission source but we're not testing any of them. Just picking 10,000 of them randomly and doing the tests would give us an idea of the current infection rate for symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Why are we wasting the supposed capacity and not testing them.
They are 'offering tests' now, from last week to care home workers too, apparently.
Surely you want people to be isolated from each other inside cars, not mingling?
Only isolated if just 1 person per car. And 1 person per car is hopelessly inefficient.
I would be surprised if there was much infection happening from pedestrians or cyclists passing each other in the street.
It was reported on here that joggers create a 6m trail of potential slipstream infection behind them, cyclists a 20m tail.
So prepare to be surprised.
The only people who have put me at any potential risk in the past five weeks are joggers and cyclists. Thankfuly, I am in Devon where the risk of them actually giving me Covid-19 as part of their exercise regime are slight. City centres? W-A-Y higher
I'm prepared to be surprised but I'm interested do you have a source for that?
Getting rid of the cars would certainly give the rest of us much more space to keep distance from each other.
"His team concluded that cyclists and runners have to stay much farther than 6 feet from a runner or rider in front of them to avoid inhaling droplets or having them land on their bodies. He calculated safe distances for each sport: That 65 feet is needed when riding a bike at 18 miles per hour, 33 feet while running at a 6:44 minutes-per-mile pace, or 16 feet while walking at a normal pace. “By that time, the droplets will have moved down to the ground and you won’t get them in your face,” says Blocken. What about riding or jogging side by side? “It’s no problem unless you turn your head and cough in their direction,” Blocken added."
That article also links to another pre-print study which says:
"Our study does not rule out outdoor transmission of the virus. However, among our 7,324 identified cases in China with sufficient descriptions, only one outdoor outbreak involving two cases occurred in a village in Shangqiu, Henan. A 27-year-old man had a conversation outdoors with an individual who had returned from Wuhan on 25 January and had the onset of symptoms on 1 February. "
So I'm still prepared to be surprised about "much infection happening from pedestrians or cyclists passing each other in the street".
Sounds about right to me. In any event, the point about the general public wearing masks is not that they provide infallible protection, but that even the flimsiest do something to reduce the likelihood of transmission, and that risk is much greater indoors.
The more cautious of us will be more cautious - but what's more important is everyone being at least a bit more cautious.
The people who should be told, first, to wear masks, are the joggers and cyclists busily huffing and panting their way around Britain’s parks
I'd have thought it'd make more sense to hand out masks to people entering supermarkets. This, in my experience, is where it has been most difficult to keep at least 2m away from others, and people would definitely wear them if they were a condition of entering. Mind you, I did see one idiot pulling down his home-made mask to talk to the woman behind the chemist counter in Sainsbury's while stood less than a metre in front of her!
They will have to have them in cinemas and theatres. Short of having the auditori(a?) at 1 in 9 capacity. Which I don't think would be profitable.
Handing out masks at supermarkets would be a good idea, but for a different reason, it will be a good place to get distribution coverage of the masks.
People are obsessed about people passing within 2m at supermarkets, but we all pass by quickly. Standing 2m away from someone for 10 minutes or more is a lot more risky than passing by at a distance of 1m.
If you want to understand what's going wrong in Japan, this is the best place to start.
That’s a remarkable document. Thanks.
@patio11 is a must-follow on Twitter. I don't understand some of what he writes about and he's often obscure, but he's obviously a really sharp guy. As shown by this analysis.
I think it was you that pointed out that the tech industry were way ahead of almost everyone else including the so-called experts in spotting the dangers of Covid-19 that come from exponential growth. This seems to be another example.
Take a chess board. Place a grain of rice on the first square, two on the second, two grains for each rice on the previous square, keep going.... The later you intervene the more squares you've got racked up ahead of cases...
Didn’t the Persian Emperor execute someone for playing that trick?
That absolute bellend Hague gets his beak in everywhere with his usually crap opinions, a more useless fool we have yet to see. On teh main point it is desperate if the unionist loving Herald are supporting the SNP.
It is indeed surprising. I noticed one tweeter couldn't believe it and assumed it was the National - which has a quite different URL.
They must have looked at the circulation numbers and bank balance and thought Crikey, we need to do something.
“Owing to an initial communication problem, the UK did not receive an invitation in time to join in four joint procurements in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
“As the [European] Commission has confirmed, we are eligible to participate in joint procurements during the transition period, following our departure from the EU earlier this year.
“As those four initial procurement schemes had already gone out to tender we were unable to take part in these, but we will consider participating in future procurement schemes on the basis of public health requirements at the time.”
Seemed to work out pretty well for them. Perhaps they had more information regarding the chance of success of the program?
I was drawing attention to the straight lie.
Meanwhile, Britain is almost out of PPE. But Europhobes no doubt are just relieved that care home workers don't have to soil themselves with EU-procured PPE. Thank goodness the government lied to ensure they wouldn't have to suffer that fate.
Do you think France was right to requisition the UK’s confirmed PPE order from Vygon?
Re how cautious people will be after lockdown is lifted, I suspect many, like myself, will go out more to shop and have a walk round town, grab a coffee etc but will be shunning restaurants/ pubs/ theatres/ sports venues/ cinemas for the forseeable.
Even when lockdown is eased (and ours was never that tight in the first place) a lot of things will still not be possible for most of this year. Like the gun-toting Trumpton loonies in America we will have a small minority screaming about their inalienable right to go to the pub but until such times as they become the majority common sense should prevail.
On another topic, our attempts at securing the PPE, testing material, drugs etc are descending into farce. In the aftermath I hope we take a long hard look at why we seem to have totally lost the ability (under successive governments) to manufacture essential supplies for ourselves any more. A re-engineerring of our economy is required methinks.
Here's a question that some business owners might want to think carefully about. Would they rather be kept closed by the government and given some financial support for longer, or allowed to reopen but in conditions which make it unlikely that they will achieve anything like the same revenues as before and with far less government support?
Because that's what I expect pubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms and clubs are looking at.
This is already being considered in our household. At some point it is going to make financial sense to close the business completely and only reopen when (if) a vaccine is found, assuming the premises are still there. The furlough scheme only lasts until the end of June.
If that is not extended further and businesses can not reopen, closure is the only option.
The above linked artical looks at exses deaths compared to the normal years and exeses deaths to reported COVID deaths for 10 different places. The UK at 33% more deaths than normal is mid table, also of note is that Sweden at just 12% is so far the lowest, and is the only places that has reported more COVID linked deaths than the total number of exes deaths.
An account is needed to get to NY Times site but you can see the table at this link.
Comments
You obviously haven't worked with real data
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1252572941080039429?s=20
For any day in the past three weeks, a graph using the same criteria would always show a rapid drop off in the past five days. Even when going through the absolute peak - so on the 9th, for example, it would show a huge fall off on the 8th of April to only 140 deaths,
We now see that as the peak - after 5 days of information were reported, it was up to 750 deaths; with another week of reporting, it's up to 815 deaths
I F****** hate the plank.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-only-formally-asked-turkey-for-ppe-shipment-after-it-said-it-was-already-on-its-way-11976238
Too much to expect @bbclaurak at al will be that sensible though.
Pulman, not you Alastair.
But...
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/care-home-shielding-failed-coronavirus-a4418666.html
...However the Fairfield care home in Oxford said its staff were told they could only be tested if they travelled to Twickenham, south-west London, a round trip of 160 miles....
Have these people got any kind of basic intelligence?
Personally, I think this might be Nicola's only chance to face down the Salmondites. Has she admitted there won't be an indyref in 2020 yet? She should just do it.
Evaluation of nine commercial SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.09.20056325v1.full.pdf
...Due to urgency and demand, numerous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoassays are rapidly being developed and placed on the market with limited validation on clinical samples. Thorough validation of serological tests are required to facilitate their use in the accurate diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection, confirmation of molecular results, contact tracing, and epidemiological studies. This study evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of nine commercially available serological tests. These included three enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and six point-of-care (POC) lateral flow tests. The assays were validated using serum samples from: i) SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive patients with a documented first day of disease; ii) archived sera obtained from healthy individuals before the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in China; iii) sera from patients with acute viral respiratory tract infections caused by other coronaviruses or non- coronaviruses; and iv) sera from patients positive for dengue virus, cytomegalovirus and Epstein Barr virus. The results showed 100% specificity for the Wantai SARS-CoV-2 Total Antibody ELISA, 93% for the Euroimmun IgA ELISA, and 96% for the Euroimmun IgG ELISA with sensitivities of 90%, 90%, and 65%, respectively. The overall performance of the POC tests according to manufacturer were in the rank order of AutoBio Diagnostics > Dynamiker Biotechnology = CTK Biotech > Artron Laboratories > Acro Biotech ≥ Hangzhou Alltest Biotech. Overall, these findings will facilitate selection of serological assays for the detection SARS- CoV-2-specific antibodies towards diagnosis as well as sero-epidemiological and vaccine development studies....
...Four POC tests were tested on all 30 case serum samples and had sensitivities in the rank order of 93% for AutoBio Diagnostics, 90% Dynamiker Biotechnology and CTK Biotech, and 83% for Artron Laboratories (Table 1). The positive predictive value of these tests were 100%, while the negative predictive values were 91%, 89%, 89%, and 74%, respectively...
As an aside, the apparently most accurate systems in each category are Chinese.
Not the only such example.
People are obsessed about people passing within 2m at supermarkets, but we all pass by quickly. Standing 2m away from someone for 10 minutes or more is a lot more risky than passing by at a distance of 1m.
If that is not extended further and businesses can not reopen, closure is the only option.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
The above linked artical looks at exses deaths compared to the normal years and exeses deaths to reported COVID deaths for 10 different places. The UK at 33% more deaths than normal is mid table, also of note is that Sweden at just 12% is so far the lowest, and is the only places that has reported more COVID linked deaths than the total number of exes deaths.
An account is needed to get to NY Times site but you can see the table at this link.
https://hotair.com/archives/john-s-2/2020/04/21/ny-times-global-coronavirus-death-toll-28000-higher-reported/