Reading Nigel's piece I am very concerned and even angry if this is blanket policy across care homes in England though I assume the devolved adminstration follow similar practices. Instead of the stupid questions journalists pose to the daily briefings I hope one of our journalists questions Hancock directly over this unacceptable position
It should be manditory that all transfers to care home should be tested, even quarantined for 14 days
My family is in the middle of a nursing home crisis with my son in laws mother trapped in a nursing home with dementia and prohibited from any visits from any of the family. Her 87 year old husband living at home in failing health has been refused permission to join his wife in the nursing home and only his son and daughter can visit him in ppe, apart from his four carers
I have expressed my understanding and sympathy to Nigel and understand his justifiable anger over his father's passing
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
It's not just the supply side, bad though that is. AIUI masks, unless good quality and properly used, increase the chance of transmission, and also make the user more likely to take risks.
This is probably area where the experts are saying one thing and the politicians (like Sadiq) are tempted by populism.
Society wants a silver bullet, masks fit the bill.
I heard someone on Radio 4 the other day saying that even simple masks can prevent transmission. When you breathe out, any virus particles are enclosed in water so are large enough to be stopped even by a scarf. You might touch the mask, but then might touch your face anyway, or pick up the virus from a door handle on the way out of the house. However, the virus particles very soon dry out and can then not be stopped by a mask. So masks are about stopping asymptomatic people spreading it, nothing at all to do with stopping you catching it. (I assume ICU staff have access to highly technical masks that wouldn't be available to the general public)
Not least because airborne particles can enter just as easily through the eyes, or someone with a mask can easily touch their eyes, having previously touched their mask or a foreign object.
I have a feeling we will be reading about something similar soon in the UK. Jo special insight, more just where there is free government money, its like Christmas time for scammers.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
Re PPE story in the Telegraph. The headline makes it sound like the government just ignored an established PPE supplier. It might be a bit more complicated than first appears.
This PPE company, wasn't actually a PPE company. It seems until a few weeks ago, it was a property company. They appear to have seen a business opportunity and have somehow got into the business of acting as a go-between for importing a shipment of PPE from China.
I am betting that the government thought they had another chancer on the phone, claiming they could get PPE from China. If they searched them online, all they would get is a property company.
Doing a google of the lady behind the company, there is zero evidence she has any experience in PPE procurement. It is 100% property development and having been on a reality tv show.
They have been inundated with chancers offering stuff and already got burned. When they said they needed ventilators, they had a load of people telling them well I know somebody in China who can get you 5,000. Can you? Do you know exactly what type of ventilators are? What spec? etc? Well....
Spot on
I’ve been inundated with colleagues and acquaintances saying “a contact of mine can supply PPE. Can you introduce them to anyone you know who needs it”.
It feels shitty but I haven’t been doing that. I don’t know who is real and who is a chancer on the make
That doesn’t mean I’ll be reckless or naive about ongoing social interaction, however.
Not me. I will maintain my own personal quarantine for as long as I possibly can. I am as sure as I can be that we will see a major second peak as a result of the easing of restrictions and I don't want to be part of it.
Your choice.
And hopefully the choice of the vast majority of people. We do not have a handle on this thing at all at present and the idea we are anywhere near ready to ease lockdown is dangerous and misguided.
You're letting fear rule your head: 'The damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus.’ Carl Heneghan, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford.
It is time to ease the lockdown, slowly and cautiously.
I must say I've been disappointed by your posts on this subject throughout this crisis.
They've been far from the libertarian person I thought you were.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
See my post down thread. It isn't quite what it seems.
Nigel yours is the most moving piece that I have read during this entire crisis and my heartfelt sympathies go out to you. It must be hard enough grieving let alone doing so in the knowledge that your father's death was wholly unavoidable and down to the shear incompetence of those in authority nationally who made the most obvious of policy errors and refuse to learn from experience here and elsewhere.
I read that the government's ratings on the handling of this crisis have continued to defy political gravity in the midst of a litany of incompetance and wonder why. Whereas a couple of weeks back I was willing to accept ministerial assurances at face value I now listen to their pathetic attempts to assure us that everything is fine with utter contempt as failings are tackled with weasel words and promises are proven worthless within days. The public mood surely has to turn. I share your anger.
The public mood is remarkably supportive of HMG and it could just be they realise that any government would be overwhelmed by the complexity and difficulty in dealing with this crisis and the support for stay at home and safe distancing is widespread
Alternatively: infect university students under 24 (with no health issues) and once they have recovered get them to work in care homes. personally I think spending a little bit of time doing this kind of work would be an important part of any citizen's education. especially people who are going to go on make decisions for the whole of society (so no oxbridge graduation without working one term in a care home?)
I like the idea in principle (National Service for the 21st century). However a very small percentage of these students would die. You can imagine how the BBC would treat that.
I was saying weeks ago that deliberately infecting the young who volunteer to be infected would be a radical but possible way to achieve herd immunity.
The way I envisioned it, you'd set up specific clinics where people would be tested to ensure they met all the requirements and had no underlying health conditions, then deliberately infected - you could even put them up in hotels or halls of residence repurposed for the job while they wait it out.
If being able to get on with their lives and avoid further lockdown isn't enough of a motivator, paying anyone who volunteers a couple of grand should see many enthusiastic takers. It would be cheaper and better for the economy than continuing with this lockdown.
The fact is that the mortality rate remains incredibly low for the under 40s, who are at present being asked to sacrifice their economic futures to save the lives of the elderly. What if there was a better way?
As far as I can tell, herd immunity remains the only game in town. We can't lock down until a vaccine arrives without destroying the economy and by implication the tax base needed to fund the NHS.
That means being unafraid to think the unthinkable in terms of how we achieve that herd immunity. Deliberate infection of volunteers isn't as crazy as it first seems.
That doesn’t mean I’ll be reckless or naive about ongoing social interaction, however.
Not me. I will maintain my own personal quarantine for as long as I possibly can. I am as sure as I can be that we will see a major second peak as a result of the easing of restrictions and I don't want to be part of it.
Your choice.
And hopefully the choice of the vast majority of people. We do not have a handle on this thing at all at present and the idea we are anywhere near ready to ease lockdown is dangerous and misguided.
You're letting fear rule your head: 'The damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus.’ Carl Heneghan, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford.
It is time to ease the lockdown, slowly and cautiously.
I must say I've been disappointed by your posts on this subject throughout this crisis.
They've been far from the libertarian person I thought you were.
As we ramp up testing then we can ease lockdown but only then
Alternatively: infect university students under 24 (with no health issues) and once they have recovered get them to work in care homes. personally I think spending a little bit of time doing this kind of work would be an important part of any citizen's education. especially people who are going to go on make decisions for the whole of society (so no oxbridge graduation without working one term in a care home?)
I like the idea in principle (National Service for the 21st century). However a very small percentage of these students would die. You can imagine how the BBC would treat that.
I was saying weeks ago that deliberately infecting the young who volunteer to be infected would be a radical but possible way to achieve herd immunity.
The way I envisioned it, you'd set up specific clinics where people would be tested to ensure they met all the requirements and had no underlying health conditions, then deliberately infected - you could even put them up in hotels or halls of residence repurposed for the job while they wait it out.
If being able to get on with their lives and avoid further lockdown isn't enough of a motivator, paying anyone who volunteers a couple of grand should see many enthusiastic takers. It would be cheaper and better for the economy than continuing with this lockdown.
The fact is that the mortality rate remains incredibly low for the under 40s, who are at present being asked to sacrifice their economic futures to save the lives of the elderly. What if there was a better way?
As far as I can tell, herd immunity remains the only game in town. We can't lock down until a vaccine arrives without destroying the economy and by implication the tax base needed to fund the NHS.
That means being unafraid to think the unthinkable in terms of how we achieve that herd immunity. Deliberate infection of volunteers isn't as crazy as it first seems.
It might be a good idea to test out whether there is indeed immunity and, if so, how long it lasts for, before advocating such radical choices?
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
See my post down thread. It isn't quite what it seems.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
See my post down thread. It isn't quite what it seems.
Thanks. I rather suspected it wouldn't stand up.
Well, it still doesn't look good, but i can see why they got put on hold. Especially as they have been burned already a number of times. Buying medical kit from a middle man with no track record claiming stuff from China, when they have ordered gowns and got masks, other countries got masks that are unsafe etc.
It is the total wild wild west at the moment. You can't trust the factories, you can't trust the agents and you cant trust other governments.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
The joys of the fragmented marketised NHS. Bird and Fortune explained why PPE we need is being flogged to Italy back in (IIRC) 1996:
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
Condolences for your loss Nigel, as others have said these statistics we all discuss refer to people who have families and friends.
Given that everyone not mortally sick is avoiding hospitals at the moment, and spare capacity exists, there’s definitely a case for extending quarantine in hospital to anyone heading for a care home.
As is happening in many other countries, with people locked down care homes and hospitals are now the most likely points of infection.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
See my post down thread. It isn't quite what it seems.
There was a chap on the radio this morning talking about supplying PPE. Suffice to say that when he mentioned blockchain and seemed quite ambigous about what the company did, and who it supplied, I did go "hmmm".
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
See my post down thread. It isn't quite what it seems.
Thanks. I rather suspected it wouldn't stand up.
Well, it still doesn't look good, but i can see why they got put on hold. Especially as they have been burned already a number of times. Buying medical kit from a middle man with no track record claiming stuff from China, when they have ordered gowns and got masks, other countries got masks that are unsafe etc.
It is the total wild wild west at the moment. You can't trust the factories, you can't trust the agents and you cant trust other governments.
Or they could phone the company and check they have anything in stock right now, then clarify what they have, and perhaps even ask for a sample to be couriered over. That would seem better than simply ignoring them on the off-chance.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
See my post down thread. It isn't quite what it seems.
There was a chap on the radio this morning talking about supplying PPE. Suffice to say that when he mentioned blockchain and seemed quite ambigous about what the company did, and who it supplied, I did go "hmmm".
The next stage of outrage will be how many 10s / 100s millions the government will have got burned for in desparate attempts to source everything necessary.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
See my post down thread. It isn't quite what it seems.
Thanks. I rather suspected it wouldn't stand up.
Well, it still doesn't look good, but i can see why they got put on hold. Especially as they have been burned already a number of times. Buying medical kit from a middle man with no track record claiming stuff from China, when they have ordered gowns and got masks, other countries got masks that are unsafe etc.
It is the total wild wild west at the moment. You can't trust the factories, you can't trust the agents and you cant trust other governments.
Or they could phone the company and check they have anything in stock right now, then clarify what they have, and perhaps even ask for a sample to be couriered over. That would seem better than simply ignoring them on the off-chance.
I am going to guess when they rang they didn't have any. Remember at the moment we only have the word of a reality tv show contestant, who works in property and looking to make a quick buck on a PPE shipment. Saying look I told them I could get some stuff and Italy agreed to pay for it.
It seems all the chancers want the money upfront, before delivery, to secure that order. That is how the UK got caught on the antibody tests, got masks rather than gowns and only 10% of them, and also how many other European countries have bought substandard kit.
All the stories that come out, it is total wild west out there.
Nigel yours is the most moving piece that I have read during this entire crisis and my heartfelt sympathies go out to you. It must be hard enough grieving let alone doing so in the knowledge that your father's death was wholly unavoidable and down to the shear incompetence of those in authority nationally who made the most obvious of policy errors and refuse to learn from experience here and elsewhere.
I read that the government's ratings on the handling of this crisis have continued to defy political gravity in the midst of a litany of incompetance and wonder why. Whereas a couple of weeks back I was willing to accept ministerial assurances at face value I now listen to their pathetic attempts to assure us that everything is fine with utter contempt as failings are tackled with weasel words and promises are proven worthless within days. The public mood surely has to turn. I share your anger.
The public mood is remarkably supportive of HMG and it could just be they realise that any government would be overwhelmed by the complexity and difficulty in dealing with this crisis and the support for stay at home and safe distancing is widespread
Great post, this is a war against what remains an unknown enemy which acts in ways that no one can understand yet. Thats why we are getting very qualified people taking completely different stances on the correct approach to Covid 19. In war not everything goes right. What I think people can see is that the Government is doing everything it can. Obviously it will make mistakes and it will fail in some areas, and through best intentions terrible tradegies are occuring. Every country is suffering similar tradegies to us. This is a world emergency.
The government clearly thought that hospitals would be overwhelmed which is why they set up the Nightingale Hosptials and asked retired nurses to come out of retirement. I am sure that they based this decision on advice from their scientists. Incredibly the complete opposite has happened and we have tens of thousands of empty beds in the NHS. I am sure that there was not a single person in the country who thought this would happen. A consequence of this is that some Cancer and other seriously ill patients are not being treated at the moment. I note from Newsnight last night and some press coverage this morning that the Government will soon get the blame for getting the NHS ready for COVID 19 and ignoring other patients and the daily briefing questions will be about neglecting cancer patients.
Telegraph reporting that UK PPE firms have been loading trucks of stuff for Italy this week because they can't get anyone in government to speak to them.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
Hancock's Half Hour is nearly over. He's got to go. We haven't had a really good sacking since the Fireplace Salesman.
It is going to be very hard to convince patients to return to non Covid-19 clinics and wards when hospitals are becoming the major source of infection.
The whole topic of patients being too frightened to set foot in healthcare settings has been raised on here frequently in the last few days.
Once the total number of CV patients is reduced to a more manageable level, do you think it would be practical to segregate them into designated treatment centres (possibly by using the mostly empty Nightingale hospitals) so that other patients might feel more comfortable about coming back?
Yes, it's practical - particularly in a place the size of a hospital, or across different sites or floors.
Even in nursing homes in say the SE they have been practising 'cohort nursing' by sticking all the COVID cases on their own floor for several weeks now (questionable effectiveness over time but the best that can be done in the circs).
One issue is that patients have been scared off so effectively as part of the comms programme (which is a success), that it will take wild horses or another comms programme to get them back - based on an effective split.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
Yet you look at that and go "But Germany...."
Yes. Exactly. Germany's better outcome is far more likely to be indicative. Because we can't really carry out the first step to following whatever routes are chosen by Sweden or Norway: disperse your population hugely.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Well for starters they are much more comfortable with the private sector being involved in public health care. Any suggestion in the UK of bringing in the private sector to expand capacity gets shot down as "privatising the NHS". I personally always thought Blair government ideas on this were perfectly sensible, but even that government got huge criticism for wanting to use private hospital / doctors to shorten wait lists on various procedures.
So we have PHE centralized labs, where as Germany CV test procedure came from a private lab and they widely use them to process all this testing.
Its the same in Sweden, they are perfectly comfortable with their tax providing them with universal access to things like nurseries, be it private or public owned ones. All they care about is is the service any good.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
I don't think that's a map of the virus, anyway?
Isn't it? I presumed that the red dots indicated either deaths or recorded cases of the virus showing how much it likes densely populated areas.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
I don't think that's a map of the virus, anyway?
The virus map will be even more concentrated in the dense populated parts I expect.
Alternatively: infect university students under 24 (with no health issues) and once they have recovered get them to work in care homes. personally I think spending a little bit of time doing this kind of work would be an important part of any citizen's education. especially people who are going to go on make decisions for the whole of society (so no oxbridge graduation without working one term in a care home?)
I like the idea in principle (National Service for the 21st century). However a very small percentage of these students would die. You can imagine how the BBC would treat that.
I was saying weeks ago that deliberately infecting the young who volunteer to be infected would be a radical but possible way to achieve herd immunity.
The way I envisioned it, you'd set up specific clinics where people would be tested to ensure they met all the requirements and had no underlying health conditions, then deliberately infected - you could even put them up in hotels or halls of residence repurposed for the job while they wait it out.
If being able to get on with their lives and avoid further lockdown isn't enough of a motivator, paying anyone who volunteers a couple of grand should see many enthusiastic takers. It would be cheaper and better for the economy than continuing with this lockdown.
The fact is that the mortality rate remains incredibly low for the under 40s, who are at present being asked to sacrifice their economic futures to save the lives of the elderly. What if there was a better way?
As far as I can tell, herd immunity remains the only game in town. We can't lock down until a vaccine arrives without destroying the economy and by implication the tax base needed to fund the NHS.
That means being unafraid to think the unthinkable in terms of how we achieve that herd immunity. Deliberate infection of volunteers isn't as crazy as it first seems.
It might be a good idea to test out whether there is indeed immunity and, if so, how long it lasts for, before advocating such radical choices?
Yes, it would. And you would also perform a cost benefit analysis to the economy of such a programme to assess its viability, e.g. costs from long term health conditions arising from such a programme.
I'm not just advocating doctors go round infecting people willy nilly. I'm looking for a way to build herd immunity in such a way as to minimise deaths of the vulnerable. Deliberate infection of young and healthy volunteers is one such possibility.
In my view herd immunity is the only game in town, if it's possible to be reinfected, there's no game in town. We can't lock down until a vaccine is found, that could be years away. We'd have to bite the bullet and accept that a lot of people are going to die. It would be extremely unpleasant indeed. But what is the other choice?
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
I don't think that's a map of the virus, anyway?
Isn't it? I presumed that the red dots indicated either deaths or recorded cases of the virus showing how much it likes densely populated areas.
It looks like a population density map, although it could also be a coronavirus map.
I'm sure that Alistair Haimes chap will immediately update those graphs from that twitter page where he wondered where all the deaths were on the ONS stats a few weeks ago. Rather than chopping and changing while flailing around trying to find some way of presenting data to make it look like there's not a problem, nothing happening, if we drop the lockdown everything will go back to the way things were, coronavirus will go away or it's not an issue or something.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
Thanks NigelB for a powerful and moving piece. Let's hope this helps gain attention to what is happening.
Once again, it seems to me, carers, care homes and social care is the forgotten service.
It has always seemed to me that this was one of several side effects of the push to make 'nursing' a career more on a par with a career as a doctor. The increased high-tech aspects of nursing has added to that.
This particular side effect of elevating 'nursing' was to push the actual, physical care of people even further down the scale. In my opinion, real nursing is in fact largely the actual, physical care of people. What we now call 'social care' or 'wiping bottoms'.
It's similar to other industries where, the higher up the scale you get, the amount of hands-on work you do decreases.
That doesn’t mean I’ll be reckless or naive about ongoing social interaction, however.
Not me. I will maintain my own personal quarantine for as long as I possibly can. I am as sure as I can be that we will see a major second peak as a result of the easing of restrictions and I don't want to be part of it.
Your choice.
And hopefully the choice of the vast majority of people. We do not have a handle on this thing at all at present and the idea we are anywhere near ready to ease lockdown is dangerous and misguided.
You're letting fear rule your head: 'The damaging effect now of lockdown is going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus.’ Carl Heneghan, Director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford.
It is time to ease the lockdown, slowly and cautiously.
I must say I've been disappointed by your posts on this subject throughout this crisis.
They've been far from the libertarian person I thought you were.
I have had six people I know personally die of this thing so far. I am also in a group that apparently has very poor outcomes if I catch this (fat and fifties). I can assure you that the fear is fully justified.
A while ago I heard a phone in on Jeremy Vine featuring Care home workers/owners and they were discussing this point. I mentioned it on here, I’ll try to find it
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
You just want to sell off the NHS, make us like the US....will be the response to any suggestion that perhaps it could be reformed.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
I don't think that's a map of the virus, anyway?
Isn't it? I presumed that the red dots indicated either deaths or recorded cases of the virus showing how much it likes densely populated areas.
It looks like a population density map, although it could also be a coronavirus map.
There’s likely a high level of correlation between the two.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
Perhaps they had governments who took this threat seriously and planned accordingly. It's astounding how those who are eagerest to upend the NHS are most resistant to this possibility.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
Is he saying that there was a week in the year 2000 that had more deaths?
Yes, presumably a bad flu epidemic?
Could be a "since records began" codswallop thing.
Could be. What is clear is that whilst the period to the end of March was fairly normal we are now off the scale in terms of deaths at this time of year. I think that we have peaked but there is a long slope still to come with at least 15K more to come if we follow the pattern of other countries.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
I don't think that's a map of the virus, anyway?
Isn't it? I presumed that the red dots indicated either deaths or recorded cases of the virus showing how much it likes densely populated areas.
No, sorry for any confusion. I maybe should have further emphasised the bit that this is a map of areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
I don't think that's a map of the virus, anyway?
Correct - I did say, but probably didn't emphasise enough that it is a map of areas with population density greater than 250/sq km.
Which would be areas where the virus has the best chance to run rampant, so countries with large amounts of population in such area are by far the most vulnerable and would be expected to have the most infections and deaths, all things being equal.
Nigel yours is the most moving piece that I have read during this entire crisis and my heartfelt sympathies go out to you. It must be hard enough grieving let alone doing so in the knowledge that your father's death was wholly unavoidable and down to the shear incompetence of those in authority nationally who made the most obvious of policy errors and refuse to learn from experience here and elsewhere.
I read that the government's ratings on the handling of this crisis have continued to defy political gravity in the midst of a litany of incompetance and wonder why. Whereas a couple of weeks back I was willing to accept ministerial assurances at face value I now listen to their pathetic attempts to assure us that everything is fine with utter contempt as failings are tackled with weasel words and promises are proven worthless within days. The public mood surely has to turn. I share your anger.
The public mood is remarkably supportive of HMG and it could just be they realise that any government would be overwhelmed by the complexity and difficulty in dealing with this crisis and the support for stay at home and safe distancing is widespread
Great post, this is a war against what remains an unknown enemy which acts in ways that no one can understand yet. Thats why we are getting very qualified people taking completely different stances on the correct approach to Covid 19. In war not everything goes right. What I think people can see is that the Government is doing everything it can. Obviously it will make mistakes and it will fail in some areas, and through best intentions terrible tradegies are occuring. Every country is suffering similar tradegies to us. This is a world emergency.
The government clearly thought that hospitals would be overwhelmed which is why they set up the Nightingale Hosptials and asked retired nurses to come out of retirement. I am sure that they based this decision on advice from their scientists. Incredibly the complete opposite has happened and we have tens of thousands of empty beds in the NHS. I am sure that there was not a single person in the country who thought this would happen. A consequence of this is that some Cancer and other seriously ill patients are not being treated at the moment. I note from Newsnight last night and some press coverage this morning that the Government will soon get the blame for getting the NHS ready for COVID 19 and ignoring other patients and the daily briefing questions will be about neglecting cancer patients.
Other patients aren't being ignored. A young child in my wider family has leukaemia. She's come through the initial hospital in-patient period and is now mostly at home, but her visits to hospital for treatment are still continuing as the need arises. She has daily visits from community nurses.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
I don't think that's a map of the virus, anyway?
Isn't it? I presumed that the red dots indicated either deaths or recorded cases of the virus showing how much it likes densely populated areas.
It says it is areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km. Not virus data. There is a surprisingly high correlation between densely populated areas and areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km!
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
Is he saying that there was a week in the year 2000 that had more deaths?
Yes, presumably a bad flu epidemic?
Could be a "since records began" codswallop thing.
Could be. What is clear is that whilst the period to the end of March was fairly normal we are now off the scale in terms of deaths at this time of year. I think that we have peaked but there is a long slope still to come with at least 15K more to come if we follow the pattern of other countries.
I'm not convinced that we're in excess of January 2000, which, I think, was horrific for flu. Clearly we are well outside normal bounds for April. But I find his shock surprising: we are in a pandemic. Lots of people die. I don't want to sound blase, and clearly the situation is terrible, but it would be more surprising if this were not so. It's as if he's trying to convince a sceptical public that it's worse than they think - I think the public realises just how bad it is.
What do we conclude that true figures for Covid is - are we looking at about reported figures +50%?
Nigel yours is the most moving piece that I have read during this entire crisis and my heartfelt sympathies go out to you. It must be hard enough grieving let alone doing so in the knowledge that your father's death was wholly unavoidable and down to the shear incompetence of those in authority nationally who made the most obvious of policy errors and refuse to learn from experience here and elsewhere.
I read that the government's ratings on the handling of this crisis have continued to defy political gravity in the midst of a litany of incompetance and wonder why. Whereas a couple of weeks back I was willing to accept ministerial assurances at face value I now listen to their pathetic attempts to assure us that everything is fine with utter contempt as failings are tackled with weasel words and promises are proven worthless within days. The public mood surely has to turn. I share your anger.
The public mood is remarkably supportive of HMG and it could just be they realise that any government would be overwhelmed by the complexity and difficulty in dealing with this crisis and the support for stay at home and safe distancing is widespread
Great post, this is a war against what remains an unknown enemy which acts in ways that no one can understand yet. Thats why we are getting very qualified people taking completely different stances on the correct approach to Covid 19. In war not everything goes right. What I think people can see is that the Government is doing everything it can. Obviously it will make mistakes and it will fail in some areas, and through best intentions terrible tradegies are occuring. Every country is suffering similar tradegies to us. This is a world emergency.
The government clearly thought that hospitals would be overwhelmed which is why they set up the Nightingale Hosptials and asked retired nurses to come out of retirement. I am sure that they based this decision on advice from their scientists. Incredibly the complete opposite has happened and we have tens of thousands of empty beds in the NHS. I am sure that there was not a single person in the country who thought this would happen. A consequence of this is that some Cancer and other seriously ill patients are not being treated at the moment. I note from Newsnight last night and some press coverage this morning that the Government will soon get the blame for getting the NHS ready for COVID 19 and ignoring other patients and the daily briefing questions will be about neglecting cancer patients.
Other patients aren't being ignored. A young child in my wider family has leukaemia. She's come through the initial hospital in-patient period and is now mostly at home, but her visits to hospital for treatment are still continuing as the need arises. She has daily visits from community nurses.
That may well not be true. I read a tweet from a professor at (I think) King's London who predicted cancer deaths alone will outweigh Corona ones because screening has, accoring to him, been stopped.
The troubles our response to this virus is storing up are almost too large to contemplate.
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
I was wondering how Gothenburg was doing compared to Stockholm but at the area level that Sweden reports it is impossible to tell as the Gothenburg area consists of Gothenberg and also a huge quantity of spread out wilderness whist Stockholm is basically just Stockholm.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
The Oktoberfest is a Munich beer festival that attracts visitors from around the world. A British pub is something different.
I was kinda of joking. But I don't think there is going to be any foreign holidays this year for Europeans and I also don't think we will see pubs re-opening here. Germany have already said will be until the 31st August before they will consider many venues that hold lots of people.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
Is he saying that there was a week in the year 2000 that had more deaths?
Yes, presumably a bad flu epidemic?
Could be a "since records began" codswallop thing.
Could be. What is clear is that whilst the period to the end of March was fairly normal we are now off the scale in terms of deaths at this time of year. I think that we have peaked but there is a long slope still to come with at least 15K more to come if we follow the pattern of other countries.
I'm not convinced that we're in excess of January 2000, which, I think, was horrific for flu. Clearly we are well outside normal bounds for April. But I find his shock surprising: we are in a pandemic. Lots of people die. I don't want to sound blase, and clearly the situation is terrible, but it would be more surprising if this were not so. It's as if he's trying to convince a sceptical public that it's worse than they think - I think the public realises just how bad it is.
What do we conclude that true figures for Covid is - are we looking at about reported figures +50%?
Without conducting an exhaustive review, I'd take the gap between expected deaths and actual deaths as all Covid-19. There may be additional deaths caused by other diseases not being treated as well as they might otherwise have been treated, but equally there are probably quite a lot of accidents that haven't occurred because people have been locked down.
For myself, I found the latest ONS figures mildly encouraging. I'd expected worse.
I was watching another report on South Korea, and again it seems on top of the state surveillance and massive testing, the government asked people to work from home, not go out unless they really needed to etc, and the vast vast majority did as requested and thus no need for an "enforced" lockdown.
However the stick is pretty big e.g. a few people deliberately left their phones at home and went out when they should have been in isolation. So now the government is moving to a system of electronic tagging of individuals.
I await the Guardian headlines if the UK government suggested such a system, especially for those arriving from abroad.
Three interesting developments as I take another quick break from the Monster Spreadsheet of Doom.
1. Denmark announces no gatherings bigger than 500 until at least September and Munich cancels Octoberfest. A sign that status quo ante is a long long way into the future if you used to enjoy concerts, sports and festivals. 2. France announces no more non-Schengen flights. Which as train is quicker than flight for most Schengen countries effectively means no more flights. 3. Milan plans to retain its pollution-free air post lockdown with 22 miles of urban streets to be transformed to prioritise pedestrians and cyclists.
My hope that society can take advantage of this disaster to address the environmental disaster remains. My "drive it to the Moon" 68-plate Volvo diseasal is starting to feel like a poor buy...
I'm so sorry, Nigel. And the policy does appear utterly insane.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
It's weird, its almost like the virus doesn't pay any attention to national boundaries at all.
I don't think that's a map of the virus, anyway?
Correct - I did say, but probably didn't emphasise enough that it is a map of areas with population density greater than 250/sq km.
Which would be areas where the virus has the best chance to run rampant, so countries with large amounts of population in such area are by far the most vulnerable and would be expected to have the most infections and deaths, all things being equal.
A pop density of 250 people per sq km isn't very high, you could have 105 houses each with their own acre and still have plenty of room for roads, a few shops and still have room for a hundred acre park.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
I was at the pub on Saturday - to pick up a wood fired pizza and a 4 pint take out.
We've started doing pizze at home. I put up one effort on Twitter at the weekend. I'm not sure that @Cyclefree has yet recovered from the culinary trauma.
Is he saying that there was a week in the year 2000 that had more deaths?
Yes, presumably a bad flu epidemic?
Could be a "since records began" codswallop thing.
Could be. What is clear is that whilst the period to the end of March was fairly normal we are now off the scale in terms of deaths at this time of year. I think that we have peaked but there is a long slope still to come with at least 15K more to come if we follow the pattern of other countries.
I'm not convinced that we're in excess of January 2000, which, I think, was horrific for flu. Clearly we are well outside normal bounds for April. But I find his shock surprising: we are in a pandemic. Lots of people die. I don't want to sound blase, and clearly the situation is terrible, but it would be more surprising if this were not so. It's as if he's trying to convince a sceptical public that it's worse than they think - I think the public realises just how bad it is.
What do we conclude that true figures for Covid is - are we looking at about reported figures +50%?
Without conducting an exhaustive review, I'd take the gap between expected deaths and actual deaths as all Covid-19. There may be additional deaths caused by other diseases not being treated as well as they might otherwise have been treated, but equally there are probably quite a lot of accidents that haven't occurred because people have been locked down.
For myself, I found the latest ONS figures mildly encouraging. I'd expected worse.
Thanks Alastair - that was the approach I assumed, and I also found the figures mildly encouraging (hence found Ed Conway's tone slightly odd) but I'm always wary of drawing any conclusions which are less than apocalyptic.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
I'm not sure Germany has thousands of labs, at least not ones doing covid testing - last I heard covid tests were being carried out in around 150 labs in Germany. Also not sure that these could fairly be described as "mom and pop".
Healthcare in Germany is more decentralised than in the UK, which has advantages and disadvantages (for example think about the simple fact that nobody knows how many tests are being done in Germany). Both countries will need to think more about how to deal with the disadvantages. German healthcare is also better funded. UK healthcare is underfunded, spending could increase to match more or less German spending as a percentage of GDP (it would mean a roughly 15% increase).
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
I'm not sure Germany has thousands of labs, at least not ones doing covid testing - last I heard covid tests were being carried out in around 150 labs in Germany. Also not sure that these could fairly be described as "mom and pop".
Healthcare in Germany is more decentralised than in the UK, which has advantages and disadvantages (for example think about the simple fact that nobody knows how many tests are being done in Germany). Both countries will need to think more about how to deal with the disadvantages. German healthcare is also better funded. UK healthcare is underfunded, spending could increase to match more or less German spending as a percentage of GDP (it would mean a roughly 15% increase).
German healthcare is mainly funded by public insurance not income tax like the UK
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
The ONS still has a lag . You can’t compare the data to the same time on the cumulative deaths released by the government . You need to compare the week to April 10th on the ONS to around the 7th on the gov data to account for the average delay . You should add around 40% to gov data to get a better reflection taking deaths over the 20,000 mark .
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
I'm not sure Germany has thousands of labs, at least not ones doing covid testing - last I heard covid tests were being carried out in around 150 labs in Germany. Also not sure that these could fairly be described as "mom and pop".
Healthcare in Germany is more decentralised than in the UK, which has advantages and disadvantages (for example think about the simple fact that nobody knows how many tests are being done in Germany). Both countries will need to think more about how to deal with the disadvantages. German healthcare is also better funded. UK healthcare is underfunded, spending could increase to match more or less German spending as a percentage of GDP (it would mean a roughly 15% increase).
The NHS is not just a health service. It is an enormous political statement. It long ago stopped about just being about healing the sick
It has well paid diversity officers (even though it is incredibly diverse) and protections against discrimination have never been stronger) and Press people. How are they helping?
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
That has been my concern regarding lockdowns as the data has not been backing up the fact that lockdowns work.
Of course they're off the scale. But let's face it, no Government is ever going to say "This virus is a bastard nasty virus. It will shorten lives already on the slippery slope. And it will very prematurely shorten lives of some people who have made bad life choices. It will massively spike the number of deaths we have seen historically. Accept it, this is what happens in a pandemic: lots of people die."
Covid-19 is indeed a bastard nasty virus. It will kill lots of people. Mostly it will kill the very elderly with other health issues. Which is why this thread header is so on point - surely, you take every possible measure to protect those people? Or frankly, what is the fucking point of the lockdown?
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
This was in the Times yesterday:
"Coronavirus peak is past and now lockdown worse than virus, expert insists
The pandemic has peaked and draconian measures are now unnecessary, a leading scientist claimed yesterday.
Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said that the impact of the lockdown was “going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus”." (£)
Comments
It should be manditory that all transfers to care home should be tested, even quarantined for 14 days
My family is in the middle of a nursing home crisis with my son in laws mother trapped in a nursing home with dementia and prohibited from any visits from any of the family. Her 87 year old husband living at home in failing health has been refused permission to join his wife in the nursing home and only his son and daughter can visit him in ppe, apart from his four carers
I have expressed my understanding and sympathy to Nigel and understand his justifiable anger over his father's passing
It is just wrong
I have a feeling we will be reading about something similar soon in the UK. Jo special insight, more just where there is free government money, its like Christmas time for scammers.
If this story stands up to major scrutiny then there is a ton of shit coming Hancock's way.
I’ve been inundated with colleagues and acquaintances saying “a contact of mine can supply PPE. Can you introduce them to anyone you know who needs it”.
It feels shitty but I haven’t been doing that. I don’t know who is real and who is a chancer on the make
It is time to ease the lockdown, slowly and cautiously.
I must say I've been disappointed by your posts on this subject throughout this crisis.
They've been far from the libertarian person I thought you were.
I also saw this comment on the last thread: "1 in 1000 die in NYC, Sweden has a bad but not awful outcome focused almost entirely in Stockholm."
I think an image can sum up the difference between Sweden and, say, the problems we're having in Birmingham and London, and the hellish time they're having in Belgium (areas with population density of 250 or more/sq km (from that same CityMetric piece by Alistair Rae I linked to yesterday):
Any comparisons between countries that doesn't take this on board, during an infections pandemic, is rather incomplete.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/15/uk-ramp-testing-care-home-workers-residents-12561635/
The way I envisioned it, you'd set up specific clinics where people would be tested to ensure they met all the requirements and had no underlying health conditions, then deliberately infected - you could even put them up in hotels or halls of residence repurposed for the job while they wait it out.
If being able to get on with their lives and avoid further lockdown isn't enough of a motivator, paying anyone who volunteers a couple of grand should see many enthusiastic takers. It would be cheaper and better for the economy than continuing with this lockdown.
The fact is that the mortality rate remains incredibly low for the under 40s, who are at present being asked to sacrifice their economic futures to save the lives of the elderly. What if there was a better way?
As far as I can tell, herd immunity remains the only game in town. We can't lock down until a vaccine arrives without destroying the economy and by implication the tax base needed to fund the NHS.
That means being unafraid to think the unthinkable in terms of how we achieve that herd immunity. Deliberate infection of volunteers isn't as crazy as it first seems.
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
It is the total wild wild west at the moment. You can't trust the factories, you can't trust the agents and you cant trust other governments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Np_cbF_tyWY
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
Given that everyone not mortally sick is avoiding hospitals at the moment, and spare capacity exists, there’s definitely a case for extending quarantine in hospital to anyone heading for a care home.
As is happening in many other countries, with people locked down care homes and hospitals are now the most likely points of infection.
It seems all the chancers want the money upfront, before delivery, to secure that order. That is how the UK got caught on the antibody tests, got masks rather than gowns and only 10% of them, and also how many other European countries have bought substandard kit.
All the stories that come out, it is total wild west out there.
The government clearly thought that hospitals would be overwhelmed which is why they set up the Nightingale Hosptials and asked retired nurses to come out of retirement. I am sure that they based this decision on advice from their scientists. Incredibly the complete opposite has happened and we have tens of thousands of empty beds in the NHS. I am sure that there was not a single person in the country who thought this would happen. A consequence of this is that some Cancer and other seriously ill patients are not being treated at the moment. I note from Newsnight last night and some press coverage this morning that the Government will soon get the blame for getting the NHS ready for COVID 19 and ignoring other patients and the daily briefing questions will be about neglecting cancer patients.
Even in nursing homes in say the SE they have been practising 'cohort nursing' by sticking all the COVID cases on their own floor for several weeks now (questionable effectiveness over time but the best that can be done in the circs).
One issue is that patients have been scared off so effectively as part of the comms programme (which is a success), that it will take wild horses or another comms programme to get them back - based on an effective split.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1252477922457387009
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/20/politics/kim-jong-un-north-korea/index.html
Germany's better outcome is far more likely to be indicative.
Because we can't really carry out the first step to following whatever routes are chosen by Sweden or Norway: disperse your population hugely.
So we have PHE centralized labs, where as Germany CV test procedure came from a private lab and they widely use them to process all this testing.
Its the same in Sweden, they are perfectly comfortable with their tax providing them with universal access to things like nurseries, be it private or public owned ones. All they care about is is the service any good.
I'm not just advocating doctors go round infecting people willy nilly. I'm looking for a way to build herd immunity in such a way as to minimise deaths of the vulnerable. Deliberate infection of young and healthy volunteers is one such possibility.
In my view herd immunity is the only game in town, if it's possible to be reinfected, there's no game in town. We can't lock down until a vaccine is found, that could be years away. We'd have to bite the bullet and accept that a lot of people are going to die. It would be extremely unpleasant indeed. But what is the other choice?
Rather than chopping and changing while flailing around trying to find some way of presenting data to make it look like there's not a problem, nothing happening, if we drop the lockdown everything will go back to the way things were, coronavirus will go away or it's not an issue or something.
This particular side effect of elevating 'nursing' was to push the actual, physical care of people even further down the scale. In my opinion, real nursing is in fact largely the actual, physical care of people. What we now call 'social care' or 'wiping bottoms'.
It's similar to other industries where, the higher up the scale you get, the amount of hands-on work you do decreases.
A while ago I heard a phone in on Jeremy Vine featuring Care home workers/owners and they were discussing this point. I mentioned it on here, I’ll try to find it
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8239855/Germany-CANCELS-Oktoberfest-coronavirus.html
32% aged 60-79
5% 59 or under
1.5% 49 or under
0.6% 39 or under
Which would be areas where the virus has the best chance to run rampant, so countries with large amounts of population in such area are by far the most vulnerable and would be expected to have the most infections and deaths, all things being equal.
What do we conclude that true figures for Covid is - are we looking at about reported figures +50%?
The troubles our response to this virus is storing up are almost too large to contemplate.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/apr/21/sweden-covid-19-policy-trust-citizens-state
For myself, I found the latest ONS figures mildly encouraging. I'd expected worse.
24% 80 or older
27% 60-79
30% 50-69
19% 49 or under
However the stick is pretty big e.g. a few people deliberately left their phones at home and went out when they should have been in isolation. So now the government is moving to a system of electronic tagging of individuals.
I await the Guardian headlines if the UK government suggested such a system, especially for those arriving from abroad.
1. Denmark announces no gatherings bigger than 500 until at least September and Munich cancels Octoberfest. A sign that status quo ante is a long long way into the future if you used to enjoy concerts, sports and festivals.
2. France announces no more non-Schengen flights. Which as train is quicker than flight for most Schengen countries effectively means no more flights.
3. Milan plans to retain its pollution-free air post lockdown with 22 miles of urban streets to be transformed to prioritise pedestrians and cyclists.
My hope that society can take advantage of this disaster to address the environmental disaster remains. My "drive it to the Moon" 68-plate Volvo diseasal is starting to feel like a poor buy...
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020
Professor Costello's projection of 40,000 in the first wave sadly looks about right.
Healthcare in Germany is more decentralised than in the UK, which has advantages and disadvantages (for example think about the simple fact that nobody knows how many tests are being done in Germany). Both countries will need to think more about how to deal with the disadvantages. German healthcare is also better funded. UK healthcare is underfunded, spending could increase to match more or less German spending as a percentage of GDP (it would mean a roughly 15% increase).
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
It has well paid diversity officers (even though it is incredibly diverse) and protections against discrimination have never been stronger) and Press people. How are they helping?
Covid-19 is indeed a bastard nasty virus. It will kill lots of people. Mostly it will kill the very elderly with other health issues. Which is why this thread header is so on point - surely, you take every possible measure to protect those people? Or frankly, what is the fucking point of the lockdown?
"Coronavirus peak is past and now lockdown worse than virus, expert insists
The pandemic has peaked and draconian measures are now unnecessary, a leading scientist claimed yesterday.
Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said that the impact of the lockdown was “going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus”." (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-peak-is-past-and-now-lockdown-worse-than-virus-expert-insists-sq6dd0jdx