Just popping in briefly (I'm working this morning).
I'd like to say a heartfelt thank you for all the kind comments this morning.
As far as the piece is concerned, I did find it difficult to write. My instinctive response was to rage against the person in charge. But thinking about it, as you’re forced to do when trying to assemble something coherent, I was forced to recognise that would be both be counterproductive to a reasoned debate, and to some extent unfair.
I don’t envy those finding themselves in charge of responding to this crisis, and it is inevitable that they will make mistakes. And I have no real reason to doubt Hancock’s good intentions. But on the evidence of the past few weeks, I have to suspect that he is simply not up to the job, which is a matter of far greater concern than my own personal feelings.
I'm sure that Alistair Haimes chap will immediately update those graphs from that twitter page where he wondered where all the deaths were on the ONS stats a few weeks ago. Rather than chopping and changing while flailing around trying to find some way of presenting data to make it look like there's not a problem, nothing happening, if we drop the lockdown everything will go back to the way things were, coronavirus will go away or it's not an issue or something.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
"Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all"
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
The fact no scientists seem to be able to even definitely say how it spreads tells you a lot. There are all these different studies, some say it can be spread by contact with every day objects, other not, some say can travel much more than the 2m and stay in the air of a confined space for many minutes if not hours, others not.
I presume South Korea probably has the best idea of what presents the most high risk activities (at least in their society). Germany have done some sampling of cases to try and pinpoint what it was that caused the transmission.
Very sobering piece, Nigel. My condolences to you and your family. No one should have to go through this.
Hopefully there is a lobby hack reading this and will ask about care home policy and why our discharge rules on recovered patients varies so much with the WHO (which is also a possible driver of new infections, especially in care homes).
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Causality.
The worse the infection rates, the more a country will want to reduce them. They will lock down harder. With the 3 week lag, death rates from infections in the week they lock down will show up 3 weeks later, during the worst of the lockdown. Thanks to the high infectivity rate, and that key workers and healthcare workers and grocery shopping still continue in all lockdowns (other than maybe Wuhan?), infectivity rates close to 1.0 mean a constant level of infections; rates of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7 mean a slowly trending reduction in infections and thus deaths 3 weeks down the track.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
The Oktoberfest is a Munich beer festival that attracts visitors from around the world. A British pub is something different.
I was kinda of joking. But I don't think there is going to be any foreign holidays this year for Europeans and I also don't think we will see pubs re-opening here. Germany have already said will be until the 31st August before they will consider many venues that hold lots of people.
As I posted last night I still have hopes for our 2 weeks in Spain late August - we have family to visit. Still isn't clear how Spain will try and eventually lift this - I've heard suggestions that hotels stay shut until Easter 2021, and separately that bars & restaurants could be the same. If the borders are open and they aren't in total lockdown still, we'll drive down.
I do take the foreign holidays point though. Foreign package holidays likely not to be a thing this year. People will still travel, but I doubt it will be en masse.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
I'm not sure Germany has thousands of labs, at least not ones doing covid testing - last I heard covid tests were being carried out in around 150 labs in Germany. Also not sure that these could fairly be described as "mom and pop".
Healthcare in Germany is more decentralised than in the UK, which has advantages and disadvantages (for example think about the simple fact that nobody knows how many tests are being done in Germany). Both countries will need to think more about how to deal with the disadvantages. German healthcare is also better funded. UK healthcare is underfunded, spending could increase to match more or less German spending as a percentage of GDP (it would mean a roughly 15% increase).
The NHS is not just a health service. It is an enormous political statement. It long ago stopped about just being about healing the sick
It has well paid diversity officers and Press people. How are they helping?
Do you have figures on what percentage of the NHS budget is spent on diversity officers? Just to get a handle on how "enormous" that particular "political statement" is.
Any thoughts of going down the pub etc, its going to be shut the rest of the year folks....
Germany's Oktoberfest has been scrapped because of coronavirus, despite most of the country taking baby steps out of lockdown as the epidemic is wrestled back.
The Oktoberfest is a Munich beer festival that attracts visitors from around the world. A British pub is something different.
I was kinda of joking. But I don't think there is going to be any foreign holidays this year for Europeans and I also don't think we will see pubs re-opening here. Germany have already said will be until the 31st August before they will consider many venues that hold lots of people.
As I posted last night I still have hopes for our 2 weeks in Spain late August - we have family to visit. Still isn't clear how Spain will try and eventually lift this - I've heard suggestions that hotels stay shut until Easter 2021, and separately that bars & restaurants could be the same. If the borders are open and they aren't in total lockdown still, we'll drive down.
I do take the foreign holidays point though. Foreign package holidays likely not to be a thing this year. People will still travel, but I doubt it will be en masse.
The only way around this that I can see is if a real time test is developed. Then you could obviously be screened before getting on an aeroplane.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
That has been my concern regarding lockdowns as the data has not been backing up the fact that lockdowns work.
There is equally zero evidence that going about things normally is fine. We keep on going back to Sweden but if I compare Sweden with an equivalent country (Norway) Sweden's death rate is 9 times Norways.
Either way you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. There are zero easy options here otherwise they would have been implemented. The best you can do is watch what those ahead of us are doing and see if their next steps work.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
I'm not sure Germany has thousands of labs, at least not ones doing covid testing - last I heard covid tests were being carried out in around 150 labs in Germany. Also not sure that these could fairly be described as "mom and pop".
Healthcare in Germany is more decentralised than in the UK, which has advantages and disadvantages (for example think about the simple fact that nobody knows how many tests are being done in Germany). Both countries will need to think more about how to deal with the disadvantages. German healthcare is also better funded. UK healthcare is underfunded, spending could increase to match more or less German spending as a percentage of GDP (it would mean a roughly 15% increase).
German healthcare is mainly funded by public insurance not income tax like the UK
We've had this (boring) discussion before. What do you call a compulsory sum removed from your income, which depends on how much you earn? It's like pretending "national insurance" isn't a tax: silly.
As it is I think it is clear that there are a huge number of unknowns about the Covid-19 transmission mechanism and what gets it really exploding through a population but the idea that lockdown isn't having a significant effect is for the birds.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
Mr. Kamski, isn't public health spending in the UK and Germany basically the same (proportionally), with the difference made by private healthcare?
I'm not sure about that. "Private" healthcare in Germany means something very different to private healthcare in the UK, so it would be a mistake to separate them in comparisons.
As it is I think it is clear that there are a huge number of unknowns about the Covid-19 transmission mechanism and what gets it really exploding through a population but the idea that lockdown isn't having a significant effect is for the birds.
We have stopped hearing about this idea of "super spreaders". I wonder if that was just media hype or if it is a real thing.
Many thanks to NigelB for this compelling article, all the more impressive because it's not overwhelmed by the anger and grief that would be entirely understandable.
I hope that Parliamentary readers see it and take action.
Here's a reason to not extend the transition. Idea is to have the EU borrow the money directly and then dole it out. That puts all 27 or 28 nations on the hook and I'm sure they would try and pin 14% of the debt servicing bill on us and 14% of the debt as well.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
That has been my concern regarding lockdowns as the data has not been backing up the fact that lockdowns work.
There is equally zero evidence that going about things normally is fine. We keep on going back to Sweden but if I compare Sweden with an equivalent country (Norway) Sweden's death rate is 9 times Norways.
Either way you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. There are zero easy options here otherwise they would have been implemented. The best you can do is watch what those ahead of us are doing and see if their next steps work.
That is the wrong question imo. I think :@Eek has it.
I think the idea that a lockdown will 'solve' Covid is a great oversimplification; no one in the profession thinks that is the suggestion.
AIUI, and I'm no expert, a 'lockdown' is about slowing down the spread, in the knowledge that that spread may well happen later in wave 2 or wave 3 or in between because the people who have been prevented getting it will still probably get it anyway, absent a vaccine.
It is about helping prevent a collapse of health care capacity by managing the load, and gaining time for research into how to manage the condition and for measures to be put in place.
I don't think we have enough data to show us anything about extent of deaths yet. We don't even have comparable categorisations or complete counts.
All the microanalysis of death numbers and comparisons is just journalistic masturbation.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
Re how cautious people will be after lockdown is lifted, I suspect many, like myself, will go out more to shop and have a walk round town, grab a coffee etc but will be shunning restaurants/ pubs/ theatres/ sports venues/ cinemas for the forseeable.
Even when lockdown is eased (and ours was never that tight in the first place) a lot of things will still not be possible for most of this year. Like the gun-toting Trumpton loonies in America we will have a small minority screaming about their inalienable right to go to the pub but until such times as they become the majority common sense should prevail.
On another topic, our attempts at securing the PPE, testing material, drugs etc are descending into farce. In the aftermath I hope we take a long hard look at why we seem to have totally lost the ability (under successive governments) to manufacture essential supplies for ourselves any more. A re-engineerring of our economy is required methinks.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
That has been my concern regarding lockdowns as the data has not been backing up the fact that lockdowns work.
There is equally zero evidence that going about things normally is fine. We keep on going back to Sweden but if I compare Sweden with an equivalent country (Norway) Sweden's death rate is 9 times Norways.
Either way you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. There are zero easy options here otherwise they would have been implemented. The best you can do is watch what those ahead of us are doing and see if their next steps work.
I think that deep down, we all have a subconscious belief in sympathetic magic: if we do things the way we were doing them when things were fine, things will be fine again. Ergo, dropping the lockdown will simply make things fine again.
Of course, we all consciously know that that is utter mince, but our conscious minds are primarily used for rationalisation - and if we're bright enough, we can cast about for ways to support the contention that if we went back to the way things were, things would be fine (or at least okay (for us, anyway), or better than they are).
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
And Denmark is in a worse starting point than Sweden in terms of both population density, areas of high density, and land border with the rest of the Continent.
James O'Brien talking about the politicisation of the issue by the "forelock tuggers" where any criticism even of the facts in hand (i.e. senior doctor reports instructions to reuse single use gowns due to shortage) is attacked as a political smear.
There won't be an election until 2024. The government have a thumping majority. Any chance that the "forelock tuggers" an accept that not everything is wonderful and pointing out the not wonderful which is literally killing people is not a political stunt?
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
High Population density. High % of older people. High air pollution. Daft religious practises involving gatherings.
If you have all 4 of the above you will have more serious cases of Covid 19.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
You just want to sell off the NHS, make us like the US....will be the response to any suggestion that perhaps it could be reformed.
Yeah, it's definitely that rather than the *reformers'* inability to come up with a coherent case that's remotely sellable by pols.
Good luck with 'the NHS model isn't working' over the next few years, though I dare say wee Dan Hannan will keep on trying. Who could forget this classic?
'What he feared, he said, was that Barack Obama’s America was about to abandon its world-beating system of private healthcare (“freedom medicine”, let’s call it) in favour of NHS-style socialised healthcare.'
That doesn’t mean I’ll be reckless or naive about ongoing social interaction, however.
Actually, I’m in the 29%. I think most of those who are dramatically underestimate how cautious the majority are going to be.
Agree with Alistair. It needs some measure of confidence about what your personal risks are and how they can and will be managed.
I got my first "we have identified you as someone who may need support" letter yesterday - from the Local Authority. Someone has given them some GP or Health Service data, or they got it from their database where I had a sharps collection several years ago, which is their only routine diabetic service.
But the buggers are *still* using the same awful house name ('Dunroamin' level) in the address I have been trying to get rid of since 2013.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
That is also completely inaccurate I am afraid. Japan has one of the lowest death rates despite having 130m people crammed into a a few mostly mountainous islands.
I see from the ONS that actual death rates are about 30% higher than DHSC's hospital figures. While that is thousands of additional deaths, part of me is relieved it isn't higher?
James O'Brien talking about the politicisation of the issue by the "forelock tuggers" where any criticism even of the facts in hand (i.e. senior doctor reports instructions to reuse single use gowns due to shortage) is attacked as a political smear.
There won't be an election until 2024. The government have a thumping majority. Any chance that the "forelock tuggers" an accept that not everything is wonderful and pointing out the not wonderful which is literally killing people is not a political stunt?
It's here on this thread - Govt. are not remotely getting a free ride. Not even an easy one.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
That is also completely inaccurate I am afraid. Japan has one of the lowest death rates despite having 130m people crammed into a a few mostly mountainous islands.
The lock downers are running out of excuses.
This Japan:
"Doctors in Japan have warned that the country's medical system could collapse amid a wave of new coronavirus cases.
Emergency rooms have been unable to treat some patients with serious health conditions due to the extra burden caused by the virus, officials say.
One ambulance carrying a patient with coronavirus symptoms was turned away by 80 hospitals before he could be seen.
Japan, which initially appeared to have the virus under control, passed 10,000 confirmed cases on Saturday."
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
That is also completely inaccurate I am afraid. Japan has one of the lowest death rates despite having 130m people crammed into a a few mostly mountainous islands.
The lock downers are running out of excuses.
Needs more exclamation marks, and shorter sentences, and preferably ending with a single word sentence. Add a more direct insult and attack a political enemy. Like this:
"Wrong! Look at Japan! Loony lockdowners like Sleepy Joe who hate FREEDOM running out of excuses. Sad!"
I see from the ONS that actual death rates are about 30% higher than DHSC's hospital figures. While that is thousands of additional deaths, part of me is relieved it isn't higher?
Yes, I was expecting it to be at least 60% higher.
James O'Brien talking about the politicisation of the issue by the "forelock tuggers" where any criticism even of the facts in hand (i.e. senior doctor reports instructions to reuse single use gowns due to shortage) is attacked as a political smear.
There won't be an election until 2024. The government have a thumping majority. Any chance that the "forelock tuggers" an accept that not everything is wonderful and pointing out the not wonderful which is literally killing people is not a political stunt?
It's here on this thread - Govt. are not remotely getting a free ride. Not even an easy one.
If there is any forelock tugging going on it is to the NHS.
We all know about the sacrifices of the front line workers, but there are failings elsewhere.
Re how cautious people will be after lockdown is lifted, I suspect many, like myself, will go out more to shop and have a walk round town, grab a coffee etc but will be shunning restaurants/ pubs/ theatres/ sports venues/ cinemas for the forseeable.
Even when lockdown is eased (and ours was never that tight in the first place) a lot of things will still not be possible for most of this year. Like the gun-toting Trumpton loonies in America we will have a small minority screaming about their inalienable right to go to the pub but until such times as they become the majority common sense should prevail.
On another topic, our attempts at securing the PPE, testing material, drugs etc are descending into farce. In the aftermath I hope we take a long hard look at why we seem to have totally lost the ability (under successive governments) to manufacture essential supplies for ourselves any more. A re-engineerring of our economy is required methinks.
Here's a question that some business owners might want to think carefully about. Would they rather be kept closed by the government and given some financial support for longer, or allowed to reopen but in conditions which make it unlikely that they will achieve anything like the same revenues as before and with far less government support?
Because that's what I expect pubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms and clubs are looking at.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
Devon has literally had 1/15th of the victims per million of population of places like Wolverhampton.
Is he saying that there was a week in the year 2000 that had more deaths?
Yes, presumably a bad flu epidemic?
Could be a "since records began" codswallop thing.
Could be. What is clear is that whilst the period to the end of March was fairly normal we are now off the scale in terms of deaths at this time of year. I think that we have peaked but there is a long slope still to come with at least 15K more to come if we follow the pattern of other countries.
I'm not convinced that we're in excess of January 2000, which, I think, was horrific for flu. Clearly we are well outside normal bounds for April. But I find his shock surprising: we are in a pandemic. Lots of people die. I don't want to sound blase, and clearly the situation is terrible, but it would be more surprising if this were not so. It's as if he's trying to convince a sceptical public that it's worse than they think - I think the public realises just how bad it is.
What do we conclude that true figures for Covid is - are we looking at about reported figures +50%?
Without conducting an exhaustive review, I'd take the gap between expected deaths and actual deaths as all Covid-19. There may be additional deaths caused by other diseases not being treated as well as they might otherwise have been treated, but equally there are probably quite a lot of accidents that haven't occurred because people have been locked down.
For myself, I found the latest ONS figures mildly encouraging. I'd expected worse.
Likewise. Although the thread header is tragic and was unnecessary, caused by a failure to update advice and practice, we do not seem to be suffering the same level of catastrophe in care homes as was reported in Madrid, for example.
That's fairly obvious. There's 66 million of us and if we all go out three times a day...
If you get a decent mask like the one I have it's washable and so are the replaceable filters.
This whole thing is an utter shitshow. I bought my mask literally 3 months ago today. The Government are a shambles.
Vygon is the best and most reliable supplier in the industry (they are not cheap)
I suspect that when the entrails are picked through you will see the government made early bets on (a) Vygon for PPE and (b) 2 Chinese and Porton Down for testing
On Vygon they were caught out by the French requisitioning U.K. orders and they had no plan B. It was an error, but possibly a forgivable error, to expect a European neighbour not to do that
On testing the Chinese lied and Porton Down has struggled to make a reliable test. What I am curious about is why other countries seem to have a solution. Are they accepting lower standards? This is different to the question about basic testing - essentially the (wrong) call the U.K. made was for centralised testing vs Germany which has thousands of mom and pop Dx labs so much more basic infrastructure. The U.K. is fixing that now but it takes tome - eg Emma over at GSK said (IIRC) their lab with AZ will open up at the end of April with capacity for 40k tests a day.
I believe the UK did hedge antibody tests with another British company, they have a big production facility in Senegal. However, that company have come back and said we can't make these work, it will be months.
Still, they bet everything on the antibody tests and didn't push the private sector for the antigen testing capacity.
I think the really interesting feature of Charles' post is that 'Germany (which) has thousands of mom and pop Dx lab's. Obvious question is why. What is it about German society which expects/requires this? AFAIK Britain is the only country which has the medical GP structure that we have; to see a specialist one has to jump through all sorts of hoops, where as in other countries it is much more likely that will find a more junior (perhaps) 'specialist' in various health conditions in every medium sized town.
Exactly. I’m not holding my breath, but maybe one of the good things to come out of this crisis might be a serious analysis of which countries have healthcare systems that have worked well, and why.
I'm not sure Germany has thousands of labs, at least not ones doing covid testing - last I heard covid tests were being carried out in around 150 labs in Germany. Also not sure that these could fairly be described as "mom and pop".
Healthcare in Germany is more decentralised than in the UK, which has advantages and disadvantages (for example think about the simple fact that nobody knows how many tests are being done in Germany). Both countries will need to think more about how to deal with the disadvantages. German healthcare is also better funded. UK healthcare is underfunded, spending could increase to match more or less German spending as a percentage of GDP (it would mean a roughly 15% increase).
The NHS is not just a health service. It is an enormous political statement. It long ago stopped about just being about healing the sick
It has well paid diversity officers and Press people. How are they helping?
Do you have figures on what percentage of the NHS budget is spent on diversity officers? Just to get a handle on how "enormous" that particular "political statement" is.
Leaving aside diversity officers, I think the 'NHS Religion' could be a roadblock to appropriate reform when we are out of this.
(For the record, somebody called Fergus Mason put in an FOI in 2017 but they don't collect the information.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
That is also completely inaccurate I am afraid. Japan has one of the lowest death rates despite having 130m people crammed into a a few mostly mountainous islands.
The lock downers are running out of excuses.
This Japan:
"Doctors in Japan have warned that the country's medical system could collapse amid a wave of new coronavirus cases.
Emergency rooms have been unable to treat some patients with serious health conditions due to the extra burden caused by the virus, officials say.
One ambulance carrying a patient with coronavirus symptoms was turned away by 80 hospitals before he could be seen.
Japan, which initially appeared to have the virus under control, passed 10,000 confirmed cases on Saturday."
A very fair point, but if the link between density and infection rates is strong, then Japan's numbers should surely already be much, much higher than the are given their policy.
That said, their population have been wearing masks for decades. They were relatively common when I went there in the early 90s.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
That is also completely inaccurate I am afraid. Japan has one of the lowest death rates despite having 130m people crammed into a a few mostly mountainous islands.
The lock downers are running out of excuses.
This Japan:
"Doctors in Japan have warned that the country's medical system could collapse amid a wave of new coronavirus cases.
Emergency rooms have been unable to treat some patients with serious health conditions due to the extra burden caused by the virus, officials say.
One ambulance carrying a patient with coronavirus symptoms was turned away by 80 hospitals before he could be seen.
Japan, which initially appeared to have the virus under control, passed 10,000 confirmed cases on Saturday."
A very fair point, but if the link between density and infection rates is strong, then Japan's numbers should surely already be much, much higher than the are given their policy.
That said, their population have been wearing surgical masks for decades. They were relatively common when I went there in the early 90s.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
That has been my concern regarding lockdowns as the data has not been backing up the fact that lockdowns work.
There is equally zero evidence that going about things normally is fine. We keep on going back to Sweden but if I compare Sweden with an equivalent country (Norway) Sweden's death rate is 9 times Norways.
Either way you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. There are zero easy options here otherwise they would have been implemented. The best you can do is watch what those ahead of us are doing and see if their next steps work.
I agree entirely. This virus does seem to act in irrational ways. It does not seem to have taken much of a hold in Africa or India, when with the extreme population density and lack of sanitation you would think it would. Yet in Ecuador it seems to be destroying the Country.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
Sweden banned all non EEA flights, we are still accepting flights in from all over.
There's this weird idea that Sweden hasn't done anything. Sweden put restrictions in place whilst we were welcoming Atheltico Madrid fans and having sold out Stereophonics and Lewis Capaldi arena gigs.
James O'Brien talking about the politicisation of the issue by the "forelock tuggers" where any criticism even of the facts in hand (i.e. senior doctor reports instructions to reuse single use gowns due to shortage) is attacked as a political smear.
There won't be an election until 2024. The government have a thumping majority. Any chance that the "forelock tuggers" an accept that not everything is wonderful and pointing out the not wonderful which is literally killing people is not a political stunt?
It's here on this thread - Govt. are not remotely getting a free ride. Not even an easy one.
Oh I agree, and with the odd exception its been refreshing to see PB Tories openly calling out its failings. But we are friends who share an interest in politics and society. Its in the wider world where this is a problem - social media doubly so. Absolute lunatics on Facebook community group incensed that a councillor (who works for the NHS) has been posting stuff from his GMB union highlighting real world crises that real world doctors and nurses are facing. He was branded a Quisling traitor, spewing hate and bile etc etc.
Still, not as bad as the stuff I have seen from Murica. Gun-toting morons outside state houses, illiterate morons proudly displaying their signs demanding "Libetey over Tranny" etc
I'd have thought the most urgent thing to relax as we soften the lockdown would be dentistry.
Yes. Trouble is, dentistry is most likely to spread the virus by throwing vast amounts of saliva into the air. Hopefully the boffins are working on how to quickly sterilise surgeries after each patient.
Chiropody should not be overlooked. Many older people might find themselves immobile because they've not had their feet done for the past couple of months but will not realise until they try to put their shoes on.
Re today figures I can't remember much about 2000 and why that should have been such a bad year for deaths?
I'm assuming 1999/2000 must have had a bad flu epidemic?
Of course lately lot of people in the media (Piers Morgan?) have decided that flu is no big deal and nothing to worry about so watch out for a collapse in flu vaccine take up and a bad flu outbreak (as well as COVID-19) next winter...
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
Devon has literally had 1/15th of the victims per million of population of places like Wolverhampton.
Mr. rkrkrk, thanks, that slightly surprises me as I thought I'd read the reverse here recently (entirely possible I just misread that, of course).
The decentralisation seems a huge difference as well, though. But I suspect more money for the NHS will have widespread support from the faithful, whereas raising the prospect of reformation might raise accusations of heresy.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
That is also completely inaccurate I am afraid. Japan has one of the lowest death rates despite having 130m people crammed into a a few mostly mountainous islands.
The lock downers are running out of excuses.
This Japan:
"Doctors in Japan have warned that the country's medical system could collapse amid a wave of new coronavirus cases.
Emergency rooms have been unable to treat some patients with serious health conditions due to the extra burden caused by the virus, officials say.
One ambulance carrying a patient with coronavirus symptoms was turned away by 80 hospitals before he could be seen.
Japan, which initially appeared to have the virus under control, passed 10,000 confirmed cases on Saturday."
This just goes to show that all Governemnts are struggling. Imagine what Piers Morgan would say if this was happening here.
James O'Brien talking about the politicisation of the issue by the "forelock tuggers" where any criticism even of the facts in hand (i.e. senior doctor reports instructions to reuse single use gowns due to shortage) is attacked as a political smear.
There won't be an election until 2024. The government have a thumping majority. Any chance that the "forelock tuggers" an accept that not everything is wonderful and pointing out the not wonderful which is literally killing people is not a political stunt?
It's here on this thread - Govt. are not remotely getting a free ride. Not even an easy one.
I'd have thought the most urgent thing to relax as we soften the lockdown would be dentistry.
My dentist isn’t expecting to open for a few months after lockdown ends.
They can’t get the PPE and various other things they need to do their work.
Apparently is the case across the entire sector.
I can't imagine even with normal face shields that will be enough. They have to stick their heads right into patients mouths and make them cough. I would have thought realistically they need those South Korean style space suits.
I can't see the idea of these urgent care centres only treating literally people in danger of dying holding for many months though. You are going to have far too many people who started with a bit of a toothache now, but in 3 months in a really bad way. Will end up overloading the system.
I presume there will have work towards a halfway house. No regular check-ups, no non-essential treatments, but will treat those with immediate issues.
Re how cautious people will be after lockdown is lifted, I suspect many, like myself, will go out more to shop and have a walk round town, grab a coffee etc but will be shunning restaurants/ pubs/ theatres/ sports venues/ cinemas for the forseeable.
Even when lockdown is eased (and ours was never that tight in the first place) a lot of things will still not be possible for most of this year. Like the gun-toting Trumpton loonies in America we will have a small minority screaming about their inalienable right to go to the pub but until such times as they become the majority common sense should prevail.
The one advantage of the closure of Spoons et al is this. I can have a night on the pop. With Pineapple-topped pizza eaten at the beginning as stomach liner as opposed to at the end as drunken bad idea. And still enjoy the company of my friends (via computer screen). For a fraction of the cost of going to the pub - 4 beers for the price of 1.
Lockdown isn't helping with my middle-aged spread as need* to drink more / eat more. Exercise levels about the same as was. But helping my wallet a lot a lot.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
This was in the Times yesterday:
"Coronavirus peak is past and now lockdown worse than virus, expert insists
The pandemic has peaked and draconian measures are now unnecessary, a leading scientist claimed yesterday.
Carl Heneghan, director of the centre for evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said that the impact of the lockdown was “going to outweigh the damaging effect of coronavirus”." (£)
There is not much chance of a lifting of the lockdown in the near future. The Prime Minister is Boris Johnson. Boris has strengths but he is not known for his courage and decisiveness. Realistically, the whole government is avoiding any major decisions until he returns to Number 10.
There did seem to be a policy of getting patients out of hospital and into residential care - but it seems the some hospitals and care homes took more precautions than others.
My brother had spent several months in hospital after repeated non-Covid chest infections. Due to other complications he needed more nursing care than was possible at home so he was discharged to a nursing home a couple of weeks ago.
A condition of being accepted into the home was a negative Covid test - something which the hospital had already done without being asked. In the home, all patients have been confined to their rooms for self isolation - with no cases reported as yet.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
Devon has literally had 1/15th of the victims per million of population of places like Wolverhampton.
Yet both have had the same lockdown rules..
You don't want an efficient public transport system in this pandemic.
I'd have thought the most urgent thing to relax as we soften the lockdown would be dentistry.
My dentist isn’t expecting to open for a few months after lockdown ends.
They can’t get the PPE and various other things they need to do their work.
Apparently is the case across the entire sector.
I can't imagine even with normal face shields that will be enough. They have to stick their heads right into patients mouths and make them cough. I would have thought realistically they need those South Korean style space suits.
Factor in on average 20 different people a day sit in each dentist’s chair then you’re going to need a more stricter and often cleaning cycle.
It won’t be business as usual for them once the lockdown ends.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
Maybe but Sweden's are a fraction of Belgium's Italy's and Spain's. There is just far too much uncertainty here to decide to destroy the world's fifth biggest economy.
And Devon/Cornwall is a fraction of London. Population density is clearly part of the equation. And that really isn't much of a surprise.
Devon has literally had 1/15th of the victims per million of population of places like Wolverhampton.
Yet both have had the same lockdown rules..
Which is interesting because back in the early days of this virus Devon was a bit of a hotspot. And Devon has the disadvantage of an elderly population.
Could population density have an impact on both the spread of the virus and also the intensity of the infections?
I'd have thought the most urgent thing to relax as we soften the lockdown would be dentistry.
My dentist isn’t expecting to open for a few months after lockdown ends.
They can’t get the PPE and various other things they need to do their work.
Apparently is the case across the entire sector.
I can't imagine even with normal face shields that will be enough. They have to stick their heads right into patients mouths and make them cough. I would have thought realistically they need those South Korean style space suits.
Factor in on average 20 different people a day sit in each dentist’s chair then you’re going to need a more stricter and often cleaning cycle.
It won’t be business as usual for them once the lockdown ends.
There will be no non-essential procedures like teeth polishing etc that's for certain. I think it will be you have had no symptoms of CV and only essential treatment.
Will be absolutely wrecking private dentist businesses.
But again, the government needs to be working with BDA to come up with a plan. If they continue this urgent treatment centre model where only those at risk of death or serious complications for many months on end, it will be storing up huge problems.
There did seem to be a policy of getting patients out of hospital and into residential care - but it seems the some hospitals and care homes took more precautions than others.
My brother had spent several months in hospital after repeated non-Covid chest infections. Due to other complications he needed more nursing care than was possible at home so he was discharged to a nursing home a couple of weeks ago.
A condition of being accepted into the home was a negative Covid test - something which the hospital had already done without being asked. In the home, all patients have been confined to their rooms for self isolation - with no cases reported as yet.
I thought the NHS could force acceptance up to the registered number of residents in the care home?
Mr. rkrkrk, thanks, that slightly surprises me as I thought I'd read the reverse here recently (entirely possible I just misread that, of course).
The decentralisation seems a huge difference as well, though. But I suspect more money for the NHS will have widespread support from the faithful, whereas raising the prospect of reformation might raise accusations of heresy.
You're quite right that you read the opposite here - it was just a misreading of the graph though.
We had quite a major reorganization of the NHS not so long ago. It's unclear what benefits that produced frankly.
It remains surprising to me that discussion of putting more money into the NHS is taboo on here. Of the G7 we put the second least money into health (Italy are least) - so why exactly should we expect the best health service in the world?
Yes we can change the team formation, but we are playing with 10 men against 11.
Massive falls in the price of crude again this morning, more than 20%. I fear that a global recession of almost unprecedented severity is now being priced in.
Even when lockdown is eased (and ours was never that tight in the first place) a lot of things will still not be possible for most of this year. Like the gun-toting Trumpton loonies in America we will have a small minority screaming about their inalienable right to go to the pub but until such times as they become the majority common sense should prevail.
The protests in the US are astroturfed. We may not see anything equivalent here at all unless a similar astroturfing campaign is put in place.
I was watching another report on South Korea, and again it seems on top of the state surveillance and massive testing, the government asked people to work from home, not go out unless they really needed to etc, and the vast vast majority did as requested and thus no need for an "enforced" lockdown.
However the stick is pretty big e.g. a few people deliberately left their phones at home and went out when they should have been in isolation. So now the government is moving to a system of electronic tagging of individuals.
I await the Guardian headlines if the UK government suggested such a system, especially for those arriving from abroad.
What I don't understand (among many other COVID-related matters) about this is the following:
1) If these countries (S Korea, N Zealand, Hong Kong, etc) have done brilliantly well in locking down and keeping COVID out, what happens when they re-open to the outside world? 2) They haven't acquired "herd immunity" presumably so COVID will just take off, (unless they resume the lockdown) 3) They surely can't keep keep the lockdown going until/if a vaccine comes along. 4) Is there really any alternative to letting COVID run its course, albeit managed so the health services aren't overwhelmed?
What an utter scandal. Quite restrained language in the Header, considering.
As to the closing question, I am pessimistic. I cannot see us being capable of systematic Test & Trace. Certainly the incompetence around the issue highlighted, which does not sound enormously difficult, does not inspire confidence that we are. So I think it's social distancing and shield the vulnerable until there is a vaccine.
Hopefully the definition of "shielding the vulnerable" will at some point be expanded to include the residents of care homes.
Dentists? Pah. Hate them. Last went to one in 2012 for an emergency temporary filling. Never followed it up for a drill and fill. Temp filling is still there. Have a strict "only go if it hurts a lot" policy which is absolutely stupid. But such is my hatred of dentistry...
Massive falls in the price of crude again this morning, more than 20%. I fear that a global recession of almost unprecedented severity is now being priced in.
I expect a lot of it is traders wanting to avoid a repeat of yesterday when June closes.
There did seem to be a policy of getting patients out of hospital and into residential care - but it seems the some hospitals and care homes took more precautions than others.
My brother had spent several months in hospital after repeated non-Covid chest infections. Due to other complications he needed more nursing care than was possible at home so he was discharged to a nursing home a couple of weeks ago.
A condition of being accepted into the home was a negative Covid test - something which the hospital had already done without being asked. In the home, all patients have been confined to their rooms for self isolation - with no cases reported as yet.
I thought the NHS could force acceptance up to the registered number of residents in the care home?
I don't know - I'm just recounting our experience. The home would not have taken him without a negative Covid test.
I was watching another report on South Korea, and again it seems on top of the state surveillance and massive testing, the government asked people to work from home, not go out unless they really needed to etc, and the vast vast majority did as requested and thus no need for an "enforced" lockdown.
However the stick is pretty big e.g. a few people deliberately left their phones at home and went out when they should have been in isolation. So now the government is moving to a system of electronic tagging of individuals.
I await the Guardian headlines if the UK government suggested such a system, especially for those arriving from abroad.
What I don't understand (among many other COVID-related matters) about this is the following:
1) If these countries (S Korea, N Zealand, Hong Kong, etc) have done brilliantly well in locking down and keeping COVID out, what happens when they re-open to the outside world? 2) They haven't acquired "herd immunity" presumably so COVID will just take off, (unless they resume the lockdown) 3) They surely can't keep keep the lockdown going until/if a vaccine comes along. 4) Is there really any alternative to letting COVID run its course, albeit managed so the health services aren't overwhelmed?
Genuinely puzzled.
I would guess they won't open to more than a select group of people i.e. no tourists. And those that have to travel there, placed in quarantine for 2 weeks.
A place like New Zealand doesn't really have people flying in to use it as a hub to transfer elsewhere, which again makes it much easier.
BMI 40+ isn't just a 'little extra padding'. You have to seriously go some to get that way.
TBH, I can't imagine there are many people with BMI of over 40 that don't have some other very serious conditions.
I was there a little over a year ago - and am now in the high 20s. It took some work to fix it but it's the best thing I've ever done - and I still have a way to go. In retrospect its amazing mental gymnastics we are capable of to justify it, put it to the back of our minds.
I know people who have taken difficult personal measures to protect themselves from infection (social shielding) - but won't make relatively easy lifestyle and dietary changes to complement that. We're creatures of habit I guess.
BMI 40+ isn't just a 'little extra padding'. You have to seriously go some to get that way.
TBH, I can't imagine there are many people with BMI of over 40 that don't have some other very serious conditions.
I was there a little over a year ago - and am now in the high 20s. It took some work to fix it but it's the best thing I've ever done - and I still have a way to go. In retrospect its amazing mental gymnastics we are capable of to justify it, put it to the back of our minds.
I know people who have taken difficult personal measures to protect themselves from infection (social shielding) - but won't make relatively easy lifestyle and dietary changes to complement that. We're creatures of habit I guess.
BMI 40+ isn't just a 'little extra padding'. You have to seriously go some to get that way.
TBH, I can't imagine there are many people with BMI of over 40 that don't have some other very serious conditions.
I was there a little over a year ago - and am now in the high 20s. It took some work to fix it but it's the best thing I've ever done - and I still have a way to go. In retrospect its amazing mental gymnastics we are capable of to justify it, put it to the back of our minds.
I know people who have taken difficult personal measures to protect themselves from infection (social shielding) - but won't make relatively easy lifestyle and dietary changes to complement that. We're creatures of habit I guess.
I fear that quite a lot of people who have never worked from home before probably piling on the pounds. It is so easy to do so when the kitchen is only a few steps away. And also they aren't using up all those calories taking kids to school, commuting to the office, walking to get lunch, etc.
We hear that booze sales are also through the roof, so again not great the old waist line.
As a long time WFHer, I try to stick to an intermittent fasting regime to restrict the number of hours a day I can actually consume any food. Otherwise, I find I just graze all day, then eat a big meal in the evening, and that is just bad news.
I'd have thought the most urgent thing to relax as we soften the lockdown would be dentistry.
My dentist isn’t expecting to open for a few months after lockdown ends.
They can’t get the PPE and various other things they need to do their work.
Apparently is the case across the entire sector.
I can't imagine even with normal face shields that will be enough. They have to stick their heads right into patients mouths and make them cough. I would have thought realistically they need those South Korean style space suits.
Factor in on average 20 different people a day sit in each dentist’s chair then you’re going to need a more stricter and often cleaning cycle.
It won’t be business as usual for them once the lockdown ends.
There will be no non-essential procedures like teeth polishing etc that's for certain. I think it will be you have had no symptoms of CV and only essential treatment.
Will be absolutely wrecking private dentist businesses.
But again, the government needs to be working with BDA to come up with a plan. If they continue this urgent treatment centre model where only those at risk of death or serious complications for many months on end, it will be storing up huge problems.
We’re going to have a lot of looming health problems.
My mum has decided she’s never going back to her chiropodist.
Gyms are going to struggle, they are perfect vectors for spreading this horrible disease.
Not everyone can afford or has the space for gym equipment.
I was watching another report on South Korea, and again it seems on top of the state surveillance and massive testing, the government asked people to work from home, not go out unless they really needed to etc, and the vast vast majority did as requested and thus no need for an "enforced" lockdown.
However the stick is pretty big e.g. a few people deliberately left their phones at home and went out when they should have been in isolation. So now the government is moving to a system of electronic tagging of individuals.
I await the Guardian headlines if the UK government suggested such a system, especially for those arriving from abroad.
What I don't understand (among many other COVID-related matters) about this is the following:
1) If these countries (S Korea, N Zealand, Hong Kong, etc) have done brilliantly well in locking down and keeping COVID out, what happens when they re-open to the outside world? 2) They haven't acquired "herd immunity" presumably so COVID will just take off, (unless they resume the lockdown) 3) They surely can't keep keep the lockdown going until/if a vaccine comes along. 4) Is there really any alternative to letting COVID run its course, albeit managed so the health services aren't overwhelmed?
Genuinely puzzled.
I think you are right. New Zealand will have to remain isolated from the outside world until a vaccine is found.
Massive falls in the price of crude again this morning, more than 20%. I fear that a global recession of almost unprecedented severity is now being priced in.
I expect a lot of it is traders wanting to avoid a repeat of yesterday when June closes.
True but I think demand and anticipated demand has also fallen off a cliff. Massively fewer flights, massively less traffic, less energy use, less plastics etc etc. Maybe fuel duty will be one way of filling in the holes in the Chancellor's budget.
Would it be fair to say a consensus is building that the way COVID spreads is a highly complex matter and that lockdown is helping only marginally if at all and with enormous drawbacks?
The data seems to show that the harder the lockdown, the worse the death toll is in terms of deaths per million citizens. Spain, Italy and Belgium are all faring very badly.
Forcing people to live together in cramped spaces could in some cases be counterproductive, it seems.
Boris & co weren't to know this, but the time to realise it and start the economy going again is now. Actually it was days ago. It may be too late.
But by acting now we may not cause the permanent damage the treasury is predicting today.
Look at Norway and Denmark on that chart of deaths per million. They are a fraction of Sweden's.
And Denmark is in a worse starting point than Sweden in terms of both population density, areas of high density, and land border with the rest of the Continent.
Care homes and lack of PPE are the problems, say Swedes
BMI 40+ isn't just a 'little extra padding'. You have to seriously go some to get that way.
I know a number of folk who will be over BMI 40. I doubt that they consider themselves more at risk as a consequence. There has been comparatively little in the media to get the message across which is unfortunate. I guess there is a reluctance to seem "fattist" or whatever.
Re. dentists. Many of the people referred to hospitals for oral cancer come through dentists/routine dental check ups in the first instance.
Everyone really should have at least one dental check a year to make sure they don't have any suspicious lesions hidden away in their oral/oropharyngeal cavity.
I'd have thought the most urgent thing to relax as we soften the lockdown would be dentistry.
My dentist isn’t expecting to open for a few months after lockdown ends.
They can’t get the PPE and various other things they need to do their work.
Apparently is the case across the entire sector.
I can't imagine even with normal face shields that will be enough. They have to stick their heads right into patients mouths and make them cough. I would have thought realistically they need those South Korean style space suits.
Factor in on average 20 different people a day sit in each dentist’s chair then you’re going to need a more stricter and often cleaning cycle.
It won’t be business as usual for them once the lockdown ends.
There will be no non-essential procedures like teeth polishing etc that's for certain. I think it will be you have had no symptoms of CV and only essential treatment.
Will be absolutely wrecking private dentist businesses.
But again, the government needs to be working with BDA to come up with a plan. If they continue this urgent treatment centre model where only those at risk of death or serious complications for many months on end, it will be storing up huge problems.
We’re going to have a lot of looming health problems.
My mum has decided she’s never going back to her chiropodist.
Gyms are going to struggle, they are perfect vectors for spreading this horrible disease.
Not everyone can afford or has the space for gym equipment.
I am certainly not going back to my gym. And my god, fitness equipment, it is the new bog roll. If you can get, they are price gouging. I wanted to buy a heavier kettlebell, a decent one usually cost say £30, they wanted £65 for identical ones I currently have.
Comments
I'd like to say a heartfelt thank you for all the kind comments this morning.
As far as the piece is concerned, I did find it difficult to write. My instinctive response was to rage against the person in charge.
But thinking about it, as you’re forced to do when trying to assemble something coherent, I was forced to recognise that would be both be counterproductive to a reasoned debate, and to some extent unfair.
I don’t envy those finding themselves in charge of responding to this crisis, and it is inevitable that they will make mistakes. And I have no real reason to doubt Hancock’s good intentions.
But on the evidence of the past few weeks, I have to suspect that he is simply not up to the job, which is a matter of far greater concern than my own personal feelings.
I'll return to the fray in due course.
No.
I presume South Korea probably has the best idea of what presents the most high risk activities (at least in their society). Germany have done some sampling of cases to try and pinpoint what it was that caused the transmission.
Hopefully there is a lobby hack reading this and will ask about care home policy and why our discharge rules on recovered patients varies so much with the WHO (which is also a possible driver of new infections, especially in care homes).
The worse the infection rates, the more a country will want to reduce them.
They will lock down harder.
With the 3 week lag, death rates from infections in the week they lock down will show up 3 weeks later, during the worst of the lockdown.
Thanks to the high infectivity rate, and that key workers and healthcare workers and grocery shopping still continue in all lockdowns (other than maybe Wuhan?), infectivity rates close to 1.0 mean a constant level of infections; rates of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7 mean a slowly trending reduction in infections and thus deaths 3 weeks down the track.
It's pure arithmetic.
I do take the foreign holidays point though. Foreign package holidays likely not to be a thing this year. People will still travel, but I doubt it will be en masse.
Either way you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. There are zero easy options here otherwise they would have been implemented. The best you can do is watch what those ahead of us are doing and see if their next steps work.
https://twitter.com/northerness/status/1252501705499054080?s=20
I hope that Parliamentary readers see it and take action.
Here's a reason to not extend the transition. Idea is to have the EU borrow the money directly and then dole it out. That puts all 27 or 28 nations on the hook and I'm sure they would try and pin 14% of the debt servicing bill on us and 14% of the debt as well.
I think the idea that a lockdown will 'solve' Covid is a great oversimplification; no one in the profession thinks that is the suggestion.
AIUI, and I'm no expert, a 'lockdown' is about slowing down the spread, in the knowledge that that spread may well happen later in wave 2 or wave 3 or in between because the people who have been prevented getting it will still probably get it anyway, absent a vaccine.
It is about helping prevent a collapse of health care capacity by managing the load, and gaining time for research into how to manage the condition and for measures to be put in place.
I don't think we have enough data to show us anything about extent of deaths yet. We don't even have comparable categorisations or complete counts.
All the microanalysis of death numbers and comparisons is just journalistic masturbation.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1252530011887845377?s=20
Even when lockdown is eased (and ours was never that tight in the first place) a lot of things will still not be possible for most of this year. Like the gun-toting Trumpton loonies in America we will have a small minority screaming about their inalienable right to go to the pub but until such times as they become the majority common sense should prevail.
On another topic, our attempts at securing the PPE, testing material, drugs etc are descending into farce. In the aftermath I hope we take a long hard look at why we seem to have totally lost the ability (under successive governments) to manufacture essential supplies for ourselves any more. A re-engineerring of our economy is required methinks.
Of course, we all consciously know that that is utter mince, but our conscious minds are primarily used for rationalisation - and if we're bright enough, we can cast about for ways to support the contention that if we went back to the way things were, things would be fine (or at least okay (for us, anyway), or better than they are).
There won't be an election until 2024. The government have a thumping majority. Any chance that the "forelock tuggers" an accept that not everything is wonderful and pointing out the not wonderful which is literally killing people is not a political stunt?
High % of older people.
High air pollution.
Daft religious practises involving gatherings.
If you have all 4 of the above you will have more serious cases of Covid 19.
Good luck with 'the NHS model isn't working' over the next few years, though I dare say wee Dan Hannan will keep on trying. Who could forget this classic?
'What he feared, he said, was that Barack Obama’s America was about to abandon its world-beating system of private healthcare (“freedom medicine”, let’s call it) in favour of NHS-style socialised healthcare.'
https://tinyurl.com/y7zetfy9
I got my first "we have identified you as someone who may need support" letter yesterday - from the Local Authority. Someone has given them some GP or Health Service data, or they got it from their database where I had a sharps collection several years ago, which is their only routine diabetic service.
But the buggers are *still* using the same awful house name ('Dunroamin' level) in the address I have been trying to get rid of since 2013.
The lock downers are running out of excuses.
"Doctors in Japan have warned that the country's medical system could collapse amid a wave of new coronavirus cases.
Emergency rooms have been unable to treat some patients with serious health conditions due to the extra burden caused by the virus, officials say.
One ambulance carrying a patient with coronavirus symptoms was turned away by 80 hospitals before he could be seen.
Japan, which initially appeared to have the virus under control, passed 10,000 confirmed cases on Saturday."
"Wrong! Look at Japan! Loony lockdowners like Sleepy Joe who hate FREEDOM running out of excuses. Sad!"
We all know about the sacrifices of the front line workers, but there are failings elsewhere.
Because that's what I expect pubs, restaurants, cinemas, theatres, gyms and clubs are looking at.
Private health expenditure is similar in Germany and UK, but public expenditure is significantly less in the UK.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcompareinternationally/2016-11-01
I hope one of the journalists picks up your key question and asks it until we get a proper answer.
(For the record, somebody called Fergus Mason put in an FOI in 2017 but they don't collect the information.
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/381331/response/927566/attach/2/FOI 1066905 Mason.pdf)
That said, their population have been wearing masks for decades. They were relatively common when I went there in the early 90s.
They can’t get the PPE and various other things they need to do their work.
Apparently is the case across the entire sector.
There's this weird idea that Sweden hasn't done anything. Sweden put restrictions in place whilst we were welcoming Atheltico Madrid fans and having sold out Stereophonics and Lewis Capaldi arena gigs.
Still, not as bad as the stuff I have seen from Murica. Gun-toting morons outside state houses, illiterate morons proudly displaying their signs demanding "Libetey over Tranny" etc
Chiropody should not be overlooked. Many older people might find themselves immobile because they've not had their feet done for the past couple of months but will not realise until they try to put their shoes on.
Re today figures I can't remember much about 2000 and why that should have been such a bad year for deaths?
I'm assuming 1999/2000 must have had a bad flu epidemic?
Of course lately lot of people in the media (Piers Morgan?) have decided that flu is no big deal and nothing to worry about so watch out for a collapse in flu vaccine take up and a bad flu outbreak (as well as COVID-19) next winter...
The decentralisation seems a huge difference as well, though. But I suspect more money for the NHS will have widespread support from the faithful, whereas raising the prospect of reformation might raise accusations of heresy.
I can't see the idea of these urgent care centres only treating literally people in danger of dying holding for many months though. You are going to have far too many people who started with a bit of a toothache now, but in 3 months in a really bad way. Will end up overloading the system.
I presume there will have work towards a halfway house. No regular check-ups, no non-essential treatments, but will treat those with immediate issues.
Lockdown isn't helping with my middle-aged spread as need* to drink more / eat more. Exercise levels about the same as was. But helping my wallet a lot a lot.
There did seem to be a policy of getting patients out of hospital and into residential care - but it seems the some hospitals and care homes took more precautions than others.
My brother had spent several months in hospital after repeated non-Covid chest infections. Due to other complications he needed more nursing care than was possible at home so he was discharged to a nursing home a couple of weeks ago.
A condition of being accepted into the home was a negative Covid test - something which the hospital had already done without being asked. In the home, all patients have been confined to their rooms for self isolation - with no cases reported as yet.
It won’t be business as usual for them once the lockdown ends.
Could population density have an impact on both the spread of the virus and also the intensity of the infections?
Will be absolutely wrecking private dentist businesses.
But again, the government needs to be working with BDA to come up with a plan. If they continue this urgent treatment centre model where only those at risk of death or serious complications for many months on end, it will be storing up huge problems.
We had quite a major reorganization of the NHS not so long ago. It's unclear what benefits that produced frankly.
It remains surprising to me that discussion of putting more money into the NHS is taboo on here. Of the G7 we put the second least money into health (Italy are least) - so why exactly should we expect the best health service in the world?
Yes we can change the team formation, but we are playing with 10 men against 11.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthcaresystem/articles/howdoesukhealthcarespendingcomparewithothercountries/2019-08-29#how-does-health-spending-as-a-share-of-gdp-in-the-uk-compare-with-other-g7-countries
1) If these countries (S Korea, N Zealand, Hong Kong, etc) have done brilliantly well in locking down and keeping COVID out, what happens when they re-open to the outside world?
2) They haven't acquired "herd immunity" presumably so COVID will just take off, (unless they resume the lockdown)
3) They surely can't keep keep the lockdown going until/if a vaccine comes along.
4) Is there really any alternative to letting COVID run its course, albeit managed so the health services aren't overwhelmed?
Genuinely puzzled.
As to the closing question, I am pessimistic. I cannot see us being capable of systematic Test & Trace. Certainly the incompetence around the issue highlighted, which does not sound enormously difficult, does not inspire confidence that we are. So I think it's social distancing and shield the vulnerable until there is a vaccine.
Hopefully the definition of "shielding the vulnerable" will at some point be expanded to include the residents of care homes.
A place like New Zealand doesn't really have people flying in to use it as a hub to transfer elsewhere, which again makes it much easier.
I know people who have taken difficult personal measures to protect themselves from infection (social shielding) - but won't make relatively easy lifestyle and dietary changes to complement that. We're creatures of habit I guess.
We hear that booze sales are also through the roof, so again not great the old waist line.
As a long time WFHer, I try to stick to an intermittent fasting regime to restrict the number of hours a day I can actually consume any food. Otherwise, I find I just graze all day, then eat a big meal in the evening, and that is just bad news.
My mum has decided she’s never going back to her chiropodist.
Gyms are going to struggle, they are perfect vectors for spreading this horrible disease.
Not everyone can afford or has the space for gym equipment.
Trump has gone odds on again.
I hate it when that happens.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/anger-in-sweden-as-elderly-pay-price-for-coronavirus-strategy
Everyone really should have at least one dental check a year to make sure they don't have any suspicious lesions hidden away in their oral/oropharyngeal cavity.