Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest England “day of death” data suggests the peak was a wee

SystemSystem Posts: 12,686
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest England “day of death” data suggests the peak was a week ago

Easter holiday reporting effects have now been ironed out and here are the English death data by day of occurrence. pic.twitter.com/Sz7Hp0bUKc

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,204
    First like the National in Yoons' hearts.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Encouraging but only if people do not get carried away into thinking it's all over like the Germans in 1966 :smiley:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    Stereotomy said:

    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.

    That would be surprising considering we have (a) a less healthy population (b) a higher proportion in urban areas and (c) had a less strict lockdown.

    Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,962
    Most predictable quote about the crisis, but really important for everyone who lives in a civil society:

    "Your mobile phone is becoming your ankle bracelet"

    Interview with Edward Snowden on the privacy implications of Covid-19.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5OAjnveyJo
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,506
    From the article posted by isam on the previous thread:

    "...looking at the experience of other countries, it is not clear that a lockdown caused the epidemic to reverse, and if Sweden suggests that sensible hygiene and modest distancing measures are likely just as effective as draconian lockdown; and
    covid-19 deaths per day are clearly levelling off in the UK; and
    there is clear evidence of a matching slowdown in reliable forward indicators"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    felix said:

    Encouraging but only if people do not get carried away into thinking it's all over like the Germans in 1966 :smiley:

    "Sarge, some people are on the pitch - they think it's all over...."

    *sound of Tazer*

    "It is now...."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,757
    ydoethur said:

    Stereotomy said:

    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.

    That would be surprising considering we have (a) a less healthy population (b) a higher proportion in urban areas and (c) had a less strict lockdown.

    Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
    Italy has a higher proportion of the population over 70, though.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,640
    The fellow whose graphs I posted, to much consternation, has written an article about the Covid lockdown. Toby Young's involved, so I'm sure it will receive a fair hearing

    "Does peak infection sync with lockdown enforcement?
    The lockdown logic’s basic arithmetic doesn’t add up"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,446
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereotomy said:

    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.

    That would be surprising considering we have (a) a less healthy population (b) a higher proportion in urban areas and (c) had a less strict lockdown.

    Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
    Italy has a higher proportion of the population over 70, though.
    Italy also has a large elderly population that go to mass.

    Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,757
    Andy_JS said:

    From the article posted by isam on the previous thread:

    "...looking at the experience of other countries, it is not clear that a lockdown caused the epidemic to reverse, and if Sweden suggests that sensible hygiene and modest distancing measures are likely just as effective as draconian lockdown; and
    covid-19 deaths per day are clearly levelling off in the UK; and
    there is clear evidence of a matching slowdown in reliable forward indicators"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/

    Sweden just recorded 170 deaths, that would be around ~1100 with our population. It's going to get very messy there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Bottlebanks - do we think we should still be using them?

    Or should I save them to throw at passing cyclists?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,757
    MarqueeMark said:

    Bottlebanks - do we think we should still be using them?

    Or should I save them to throw at passing cyclists?

    Only if you piss in them first.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Any evidence from the table that deaths are being reported any quicker ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    MaxPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Bottlebanks - do we think we should still be using them?

    Or should I save them to throw at passing cyclists?

    Only if you piss in them first.
    And then pour that onto your compost heap.

    Honestly, what do you have against cyclists? Nice people like me are cyclists, though we won’t be very nice if you start throwing things at us.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,640
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    From the article posted by isam on the previous thread:

    "...looking at the experience of other countries, it is not clear that a lockdown caused the epidemic to reverse, and if Sweden suggests that sensible hygiene and modest distancing measures are likely just as effective as draconian lockdown; and
    covid-19 deaths per day are clearly levelling off in the UK; and
    there is clear evidence of a matching slowdown in reliable forward indicators"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/

    Sweden just recorded 170 deaths, that would be around ~1100 with our population. It's going to get very messy there.
    An alternative view...



    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1250400567085748225?s=21
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,643
    edited April 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Bottlebanks - do we think we should still be using them?

    Or should I save them to throw at passing cyclists?

    Only if you piss in them first.
    And then pour that onto your compost heap.

    Honestly, what do you have against cyclists? Nice people like me are cyclists, though we won’t be very nice if you start throwing things at us.
    I'd beat them to death with it if someone threw a bottle at me whilst I was out cycling.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,204
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereotomy said:

    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.

    That would be surprising considering we have (a) a less healthy population (b) a higher proportion in urban areas and (c) had a less strict lockdown.

    Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
    Italy has a higher proportion of the population over 70, though.
    Italy also has a large elderly population that go to mass.

    Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.
    Don't they also have a larger proportion of oldsters living with their families?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    edited April 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Bottlebanks - do we think we should still be using them?

    Or should I save them to throw at passing cyclists?

    Only if you piss in them first.
    And then pour that onto your compost heap.

    Honestly, what do you have against cyclists? Nice people like me are cyclists, though we won’t be very nice if you start throwing things at us.
    I'm sure you are very mindful of the 20m slipstream of possible contagion that follows in your cycle wake.

    Other cyclists? Not so much it seems...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    MaxPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Bottlebanks - do we think we should still be using them?

    Or should I save them to throw at passing cyclists?

    Only if you piss in them first.
    Do you often piss in bottlebanks?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    I have had a pile of chips thrown at me from a moving car once, but I was a pedestrian not cycling at the time. Perhaps they knew I cycle occasionally.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Theuniondivvie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereotomy said:

    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.

    That would be surprising considering we have (a) a less healthy population (b) a higher proportion in urban areas and (c) had a less strict lockdown.

    Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
    Italy has a higher proportion of the population over 70, though.
    Italy also has a large elderly population that go to mass.

    Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.
    Don't they also have a larger proportion of oldsters living with their families?
    If true, then a draconian lockdown may well have been counterproductive.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    It looks more like a plateau than a peak to me. Will take a plateau over an exponential rise.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    rcs1000 said:



    Italy also has a large elderly population that go to mass.

    Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.

    Catholic over-70s ALL made their First Communion before lay people were allowed to drink communion wine: we simply took the host (the bread wafer, for the benefit of any pagans reading this).

    My experience is that most of us - in Italy as much as in England - continue to receive only the host. Communion under both kinds is definitely a young person's choice in Catholicism.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    Flanner said:

    rcs1000 said:



    Italy also has a large elderly population that go to mass.

    Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.

    Catholic over-70s ALL made their First Communion before lay people were allowed to drink communion wine: we simply took the host (the bread wafer, for the benefit of any pagans reading this).

    My experience is that most of us - in Italy as much as in England - continue to receive only the host. Communion under both kinds is definitely a young person's choice in Catholicism.
    I was wondering. But not being an expert on Catholicism and the reservation of the sacrament I didn’t like to comment.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    The constant attempts to try and prove points by comparing ant 2 or more countries with the UK is pretty useless - you'd need a very sophisticated model comparing population density and distribution, time and nature of lockdown, age breakdown, nature of housing typicality, average family size, social customes....
    the list goes on and on.

    All we get instead is country A has fewer deaths than UK --Gotcha!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    edited April 2020
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,369
    edited April 2020
    These NHS England daily death figures look really encouraging. Peak 8th April of 771, reducing to 399 and 133 in last two days.
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    Theuniondivvie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereotomy said:

    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.

    That would be surprising considering we have (a) a less healthy population (b) a higher proportion in urban areas and (c) had a less strict lockdown.

    Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
    Italy has a higher proportion of the population over 70, though.
    Italy also has a large elderly population that go to mass.

    Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.
    Don't they also have a larger proportion of oldsters living with their families?
    They'd have been better going the Wuhan route of separating anyone with it into a hospital. All useful learning for any second or third wave, though.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    This is so sad

    Pregnant nurse with cornavirus dies but baby is saved
    A pregnant 28-year-old nurse who was diagnosed with Covid-19 has died.

    An emergency caesarean section was performed to deliver the nurse's child, Channel 4 News repored.

    The baby is alive and being cared for, the broadcaster said.

    In an internal email, the Trust’s chief executive described her as a “wonderful young woman who made a huge contribution”.

    He said the survival of her baby daughter was a “beacon of light at this very dark time”.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,757
    Stocky said:

    These NHS England daily death figures look really encouraging. Peak 8th April of 771, reducing to 399 and 133 in last two days.

    399 and 133 are partial figures.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereotomy said:

    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.

    That would be surprising considering we have (a) a less healthy population (b) a higher proportion in urban areas and (c) had a less strict lockdown.

    Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
    Italy has a higher proportion of the population over 70, though.
    Italy also has a large elderly population that go to mass.

    Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.
    I thought only the Priest drank the wine in Roman Catholic services.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited April 2020
    Stocky said:

    These NHS England daily death figures look really encouraging. Peak 8th April of 771, reducing to 399 and 133 in last two days.

    Don't be mislead by the last two days. They are yet to be filled out, as they will tomorrow and the day after.

    They are indicative of a small decline, or perhaps a plateau.

    This is similar to other countries which also had a long tail following a peak, contrary to the exponential fashion in which they added cases (/deaths).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    That's potentially very encouraging news.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Out of interest how would you have gone about it? I looked at the problem and decided that I was very glad it wasn’t mine to solve.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Graham's number is so large that any physics-based analogies massively understate its scale
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Theuniondivvie said:

    First like the National in Yoons' hearts.

    And the First Minister and Forty a Day

    FPT:
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Floater said:

    Oh dear - silly Nats

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8221445/Coronavirus-Nicola-Sturgeon-forced-humiliating-climbdown-PPE-probe.html

    What kind of idiot takes a Mail story at face value?

    Oh..
    As big an idiot as takes a Nat Onal story at face value?

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,780
    Following eadric's point on the Italian peak in the previous thread.

    Italy's deaths peaked on 27/3, at 919 deaths, taking the total to 9134.

    Their latest figures still contain 622 new deaths, bringing the total to 21067.

    The tail is long, and deaths still have some way to increase. They are suppressing the new case numbers by around 20% per week.

    So the peak day for deaths look to be nearer 30% than 50% of the way through in terms of the total death toll.

    What we are taking as the UKs peak day for deaths, 9/4 with 980, took the total to 8958, so those numbers are very close to Italy's at this stage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,796
    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    FFS. You call yourself a teacher.

    It’s judgment.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,369
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Why will they be meaningless? My daughter`s school has confirmed that her GCSE grades will be based on assessed work and mock result. And each teacher has been asked to rank each pupil in the class from best to worst. The school has been told that the school`s exam performance in previous years will also be considered.

    This seems the best they can do in the circumstances I guess.

    The upshot for my daughter is this, I`d expect her to end up with a grade one higher on each subject as compared to her mock results. If this doesn`t happen I shall be appealing as it seems to me that the mocks (which were proper exams under exam conditions) represents the best guide of all.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,796
    We’ll only know we’ve passed the peak about 3/4 weeks after the peak.

    But I’m quietly encouraged with recent figures, if pleased is the right adjective for several hundred of my fellow countrymen dying each day.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Eagles, either is acceptable.

    Off to language gaol with you!

    [Ironically, the spellchecker shows 'gaol' as an apparent error].
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,780
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Out of interest how would you have gone about it? I looked at the problem and decided that I was very glad it wasn’t mine to solve.
    This has practical consequences. If results are published on their normal schedules and distributed at schools as normal, I expect things to turn very ugly at a lot of schools - teachers will not have exam boards to hide behind, and will be the direct authors of little Jonny's unfair results.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    CarlottaVance said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    First like the National in Yoons' hearts.

    And the First Minister and Forty a Day

    FPT:
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Floater said:

    Oh dear - silly Nats

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8221445/Coronavirus-Nicola-Sturgeon-forced-humiliating-climbdown-PPE-probe.html

    What kind of idiot takes a Mail story at face value?

    Oh..
    As big an idiot as takes a Nat Onal story at face value?

    Idiot and Nationalist are synonyms for each other. Nationalism is a creed for cretins.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    Stereotomy said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Graham's number is so large that any physics-based analogies massively understate its scale
    For anybody who wants to know more here is a video with Graham himself explaining it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuigptwlVHo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,796
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, either is acceptable.

    Off to language gaol with you!

    [Ironically, the spellchecker shows 'gaol' as an apparent error].

    Not acceptable in Le Royaume-Uni.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited April 2020
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, either is acceptable.

    Off to language gaol with you!

    [Ironically, the spellchecker shows 'gaol' as an apparent error].

    Judgement is of American origin. In English court cases it is always "judgment".

    I differentiate by using "judgment" to refer to court decisions and "judgement" outside the forensic sense.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Foremain, are you saying that loving one's country is a pizza, and nationalism is bits of pineapple? :p
  • eekeek Posts: 31,313
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Why will they be meaningless? My daughter`s school has confirmed that her GCSE grades will be based on assessed work and mock result. And each teacher has been asked to rank each pupil in the class from best to worst. The school has been told that the school`s exam performance in previous years will also be considered.

    This seems the best they can do in the circumstances I guess.

    The upshot for my daughter is this, I`d expect her to end up with a grade one higher on each subject as compared to her mock results. If this doesn`t happen I shall be appealing as it seems to me that the mocks (which were proper exams under exam conditions) represents the best guide of all.
    We discovered last week that the other best school in County Durham doesn't do Mocks in exam conditions they were held over 3 lessons, and anyone with a good memory could use the time between exams to research their answers. So in that case it's possible to argue that Mocks may overstate the end result.

    And there really isn't much that the exam boards can do now to fix this beyond ranking pupils against previous years and awarding marks that will be very similar to last year's results from that school,
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    edited April 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    I dumped AQA some time ago when they started to set question that were too open to crazy markimg. I've been with Eduqas (was the Welsh board) since. Apart from the (to me) unreadable pages in Welsh that I mistakenly click on, they've been very good so far.

    We didn't run mocks as they've been done before, so the NEA is going to be one of my main pointers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    edited April 2020
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Out of interest how would you have gone about it? I looked at the problem and decided that I was very glad it wasn’t mine to solve.
    I would have waited before seeing whether it was necessary to cancel the fecking exams. They made the call far, far too soon without thinking through all the consequences.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,310
    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Why will they be meaningless? My daughter`s school has confirmed that her GCSE grades will be based on assessed work and mock result. And each teacher has been asked to rank each pupil in the class from best to worst. The school has been told that the school`s exam performance in previous years will also be considered.

    This seems the best they can do in the circumstances I guess.

    The upshot for my daughter is this, I`d expect her to end up with a grade one higher on each subject as compared to her mock results. If this doesn`t happen I shall be appealing as it seems to me that the mocks (which were proper exams under exam conditions) represents the best guide of all.
    We discovered last week that the other best school in County Durham doesn't do Mocks in exam conditions they were held over 3 lessons, and anyone with a good memory could use the time between exams to research their answers. So in that case it's possible to argue that Mocks may overstate the end result.

    And there really isn't much that the exam boards can do now to fix this beyond ranking pupils against previous years and awarding marks that will be very similar to last year's results from that school,
    If one good thing comes of this it will be pupils taking their mock exams more seriously...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Stocky said:

    These NHS England daily death figures look really encouraging. Peak 8th April of 771, reducing to 399 and 133 in last two days.

    The daily figures will be adjusted upwards as more data comes in. The upwards adjustment will be biggest for recent days. Having said that, we can be reasonably confident that the highest day in that set of figures will be 8th April with slightly smaller figures on the 11th and 12th April.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Foremain, are you saying that loving one's country is a pizza, and nationalism is bits of pineapple? :p

    A marriage made in heaven!

    'One's country' and 'nationalism' obviously. Did you think I meant pizza and pineapple?

    There is a significant puzzle about how the Italians hung on to the pizza concept for so long without having actually discovered pineapple though :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Meeks, I wonder about that.

    Many Americanisms are actually old English terms with one variant being retained by us and the other by the US. (Fall and Autumn spring to mind).

    The courts might believe themselves infallible, but in this instance I must contend that judgement is perfectly valid.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Foremain, are you saying that loving one's country is a pizza, and nationalism is bits of pineapple? :p

    Indeed Mr Dancer! An excellent comparison. Nationalism is to patriotism what an STD is to love making.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,506
    5G is a bad idea in my opinion because smartphone addiction is a bad thing and 5G can only make the addiction even worse than it is now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,204
    edited April 2020
    CarlottaVance said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    First like the National in Yoons' hearts.

    And the First Minister and Forty a Day

    FPT:
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Floater said:

    Oh dear - silly Nats

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8221445/Coronavirus-Nicola-Sturgeon-forced-humiliating-climbdown-PPE-probe.html

    What kind of idiot takes a Mail story at face value?

    Oh..
    As big an idiot as takes a Nat Onal story at face value?

    Your inability to let this lie is a joy. It's almost as hilarious as the afternoon of hundreds of posts dedicated to 'proving' that the anti Brexit march was only X hundreds of thousands rather than Y hundreds of thousands, though nothing will ever beat that for pure choleric nuttiness.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    Andy_JS said:

    5G is a bad idea in my opinion because smartphone addiction is a bad thing and 5G can only make the addiction even worse than it is now.

    The poor chap with the red flag will get puffed out too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Why will they be meaningless? My daughter`s school has confirmed that her GCSE grades will be based on assessed work and mock result. And each teacher has been asked to rank each pupil in the class from best to worst. The school has been told that the school`s exam performance in previous years will also be considered.

    This seems the best they can do in the circumstances I guess.

    The upshot for my daughter is this, I`d expect her to end up with a grade one higher on each subject as compared to her mock results. If this doesn`t happen I shall be appealing as it seems to me that the mocks (which were proper exams under exam conditions) represents the best guide of all.
    Because not all schools do mocks, not all schools who do mocks base them on exam papers, and the standard of marking is not consistent in classroom assessments.

    So what I grade at 3 or 4 in the school I work in would be an 8 at the school I live closest to (that’s not a joke, I’ve inspected some of their work and was appalled).

    As for previous years, that’s even more worrying as it assumes consistency between cohorts. Last year my highest grade was a C and I was glad to get that because they were all without exception lazy thickos. This year 50% should be A or B because they are bright and hardworking. Are they to be penalised because last year my ablest students thought a page of handwriting was enough for a 30 mark essay?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,506
    Trump's efforts to boost the oil market seem to have backfired. WTI crude is now below $20 for the first time that I can recall.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, I wonder about that.

    Many Americanisms are actually old English terms with one variant being retained by us and the other by the US. (Fall and Autumn spring to mind).

    The courts might believe themselves infallible, but in this instance I must contend that judgement is perfectly valid.

    A Daniel come to judgement.

    *Grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,843
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, either is acceptable.

    Off to language gaol with you!

    [Ironically, the spellchecker shows 'gaol' as an apparent error].

    Not acceptable in Le Royaume-Uni.
    Last summer I had to meet a French friend in London. She texted her whereabouts to me, based on her GPS. Damned if I could see a pub called the Royaume-Uni.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Meeks, I wonder about that.

    Many Americanisms are actually old English terms with one variant being retained by us and the other by the US. (Fall and Autumn spring to mind).

    The courts might believe themselves infallible, but in this instance I must contend that judgement is perfectly valid.

    Indeed I believe our use of the "u" in the word color/colour (and other similar words) post-dates the American spelling, and is believed to be an affectation from the 18th century to make our language appear more French! There is one to wind up the Brexiteers!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    Andy_JS said:

    Trump's efforts to boost the oil market seem to have backfired. WTI crude is now below $20 for the first time that I can recall.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

    It may not be what he was trying to achieve, but coupled with his recent increased pressure on Maduro, who picked a silly moment to quarrel with the Russians, it might just force a change in Venezuela at last.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,204
    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    5G is a bad idea in my opinion because smartphone addiction is a bad thing and 5G can only make the addiction even worse than it is now.

    The poor chap with the red flag will get puffed out too.
    We should never forget the women whose uteruses (uteri?) fell out after going 50mph+ on a train. At the going down of the sun and in the morning we will remember them.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,640
    So people are saying we might be past the peak...

    My Dad got a letter today telling him he is on the vulnerable list and must’ve go out for 13 weeks. This has to be wrong doesn’t it? His best mate has leukaemia and he got the letter 3 weeks ago

    Why would my Dad, who has only been out for a walk over the park a few times in the last month, have to stay in for a further 13 weeks of leukaemia patients can go out in 10?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,640
    edited April 2020
    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    5G is a bad idea in my opinion because smartphone addiction is a bad thing and 5G can only make the addiction even worse than it is now.

    The poor chap with the red flag will get puffed out too.
    Huwai surely have to call their rival service ‘5 O’?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. JS, interesting take on things.

    I quite like being properly offline when not on the computer. How the internet affects psychology of individuals and groups (even without nefarious propaganda and so forth) remains to be explored.

    Mr. Foremain, not sure about that either way... as an aside, TA Dodge is one of my favourite historians and his work (written around 1900) has far fewer 'American' English spellings than one might think, given he was an American.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,843
    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Why will they be meaningless? My daughter`s school has confirmed that her GCSE grades will be based on assessed work and mock result. And each teacher has been asked to rank each pupil in the class from best to worst. The school has been told that the school`s exam performance in previous years will also be considered.

    This seems the best they can do in the circumstances I guess.

    The upshot for my daughter is this, I`d expect her to end up with a grade one higher on each subject as compared to her mock results. If this doesn`t happen I shall be appealing as it seems to me that the mocks (which were proper exams under exam conditions) represents the best guide of all.
    Does it matter? Serious question. Are GCSEs used for anything these days? If you've promised her £100 per top grade, you could save yourself a few quid, and if she is going to university, the academics will look at her A-levels, so is it worth the stress of an appeal?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    5G is a bad idea in my opinion because smartphone addiction is a bad thing and 5G can only make the addiction even worse than it is now.

    The poor chap with the red flag will get puffed out too.
    We should never forget the women whose uteruses (uteri?) fell out after going 50mph+ on a train. At the going down of the sun and in the morning we will remember them.
    Perhaps we should make womb for them on a memorial.

    Ah, my coat.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    5G is a bad idea in my opinion because smartphone addiction is a bad thing and 5G can only make the addiction even worse than it is now.

    The poor chap with the red flag will get puffed out too.
    We should never forget the women whose uteruses (uteri?) fell out after going 50mph+ on a train. At the going down of the sun and in the morning we will remember them.
    There must have been a lady somewhere that risked it, despite the advice.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,393
    Yes, it looks like we are over the peak. Caveats re tails and plateaux but nevertheless fantastic news.

    It's a moment where one instinctively reaches for poetry and what better than this one. It's close to perfect.

    We made it through the rain
    We kept our world protected
    We made it through the rain
    We kept our point of view
    We made it through the rain
    And found ourselves respected
    By the others who
    Got rained on too
    And made it through
  • partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 394
    I know David Paton. He will go where the facts, not opinion lead him. Unless he has missed a critical factor I'd give a lot of weight to his analysis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Sounds like this ‘professional judgement’ system the drunken imbeciles Department of Education expect us to come up with in the next six weeks.
    I’m currently very glad I did not get the Head of Department job when I applied for it.
    It’s a shambles. It’s such a joke that I’ve emailed my friends in academia to tell them grades this year will simply be meaningless.

    Of course, any grades from AQA are meaningless anyway, but it will apply to all four exam boards this year.
    Why will they be meaningless? My daughter`s school has confirmed that her GCSE grades will be based on assessed work and mock result. And each teacher has been asked to rank each pupil in the class from best to worst. The school has been told that the school`s exam performance in previous years will also be considered.

    This seems the best they can do in the circumstances I guess.

    The upshot for my daughter is this, I`d expect her to end up with a grade one higher on each subject as compared to her mock results. If this doesn`t happen I shall be appealing as it seems to me that the mocks (which were proper exams under exam conditions) represents the best guide of all.
    Does it matter? Serious question. Are GCSEs used for anything these days? If you've promised her £100 per top grade, you could save yourself a few quid, and if she is going to university, the academics will look at her A-levels, so is it worth the stress of an appeal?
    TBH, it’s the A-levels I’m worried about. GCSEs can be managed next year if necessary, but A-levels are now pretty much one shot.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,796
    Prior to lockdown I used around 500 GB of mobile data per month and I wasn’t addicted to 4G.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,038
    I'm relieved that the daily number didn't jump up today - it does seem quite likely that the worst has passed for now. It would have been about two weeks after the "Stay Home" announcement from Johnson on the 23rd, so that fits.

    Now the government have to decide what the strategy is. Will it be herd immunity through allowing the virus to spread as much as the NHS can deal with, or will it be local eradication, followed by quarantine for travellers and improved contact-tracing?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,197
    Stereotomy said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was....

    3.

    Graham's number is so large that any physics-based analogies massively understate its scale
    But not that big...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver
    ...Likewise, we know that S(10) > Σ(10) > 3 ↑↑↑ 3 is a gigantic number and S(17) > Σ(17) > G, where G is Graham's number - an enormous number. Thus, even if we knew, say, S(30), it is completely unreasonable to run any machine that number of steps. There is not enough computational capacity in the known part of the universe to have performed even S(6) operations directly...

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,651
    China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web. Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,204
    ydoethur said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Omnium said:

    Andy_JS said:

    5G is a bad idea in my opinion because smartphone addiction is a bad thing and 5G can only make the addiction even worse than it is now.

    The poor chap with the red flag will get puffed out too.
    We should never forget the women whose uteruses (uteri?) fell out after going 50mph+ on a train. At the going down of the sun and in the morning we will remember them.
    Perhaps we should make womb for them on a memorial.

    Ah, my coat.
    Careful, we need to damp down any hysteria.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,257
    https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1250443405047541760?s=09
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We’ll only know we’ve passed the peak about 3/4 weeks after the peak.

    But I’m quietly encouraged with recent figures, if pleased is the right adjective for several hundred of my fellow countrymen dying each day.

    We passed the peak on the 8th - no evidence that day wasn't the peak.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web. Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

    Were they archived on Wayback Machine?

    If so, may I refer President XI to the Streisand Effect...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,757
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web. Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

    It's impossible for the RBMK to meltdown and explode, you must be wrong.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,393
    A modern ethics question. My son was doing an online maths exam today on a part of the course they had not covered. He received 3 text messages asking how to do the log question. Should he have told them?
    His answer was to tell them how to do it but not the answer.

    What exams taken in this way is supposed to tell the examiner board is simply beyond me but the Highers don’t cover metaphysics.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    DavidL said:

    A modern ethics question. My son was doing an online maths exam today on a part of the course they had not covered. He received 3 text messages asking how to do the log question. Should he have told them?
    His answer was to tell them how to do it but not the answer.

    What exams taken in this way is supposed to tell the examiner board is simply beyond me but the Highers don’t cover metaphysics.

    Why was he having to take an exam on material they hadn't covered?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,120
    Stereotomy said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was...



    3.

    Graham's number is so large that any physics-based analogies massively understate its scale
    Tree(g64) is reasonably large.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,277
    DavidL said:

    A modern ethics question. My son was doing an online maths exam today on a part of the course they had not covered. He received 3 text messages asking how to do the log question. Should he have told them?
    His answer was to tell them how to do it but not the answer.

    What exams taken in this way is supposed to tell the examiner board is simply beyond me but the Highers don’t cover metaphysics.

    I would have advised against it, put it that way. Because that may now be used to determine their Highers grade even though they didn’t know how to do it.

    Although it shows he is a nice person.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    Nigelb said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    On the previous thread some people were commenting on a particularly large range of predicted results.
    The largest range I know of involves Graham’s Number. When it was first published in the early 70s it was then the largest number ever used in a mathematical proof. It is a number so large the the visible universe is too small to write out the number which is the number of digits needed to write out the number. If you could somehow know the number then the information contained in it would cause your brain to collapse as a black hole (and that is not an exaggeration).
    This was not the answer to the problem though, it was nearly the upper bound. The lower bound was....

    3.

    Graham's number is so large that any physics-based analogies massively understate its scale
    But not that big...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busy_beaver
    ...Likewise, we know that S(10) > Σ(10) > 3 ↑↑↑ 3 is a gigantic number and S(17) > Σ(17) > G, where G is Graham's number - an enormous number. Thus, even if we knew, say, S(30), it is completely unreasonable to run any machine that number of steps. There is not enough computational capacity in the known part of the universe to have performed even S(6) operations directly...

    +1

    All these numbers are countable - there is a bigger space, and in fact there's a bigger number of bigger spaces (endlessly far).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,393
    Stereotomy said:

    DavidL said:

    A modern ethics question. My son was doing an online maths exam today on a part of the course they had not covered. He received 3 text messages asking how to do the log question. Should he have told them?
    His answer was to tell them how to do it but not the answer.

    What exams taken in this way is supposed to tell the examiner board is simply beyond me but the Highers don’t cover metaphysics.

    Why was he having to take an exam on material they hadn't covered?
    Because they would have covered it before the Higher exam and the school wants evidence in case their judgment is challenged by the SQA.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web. Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

    Not calling it the Wuhan flu was a mistake as they are going to be spreading misinformation about the origin for decades to come.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,393
    LostPassword said:

    I'm relieved that the daily number didn't jump up today - it does seem quite likely that the worst has passed for now. It would have been about two weeks after the "Stay Home" announcement from Johnson on the 23rd, so that fits.

    Now the government have to decide what the strategy is. Will it be herd immunity through allowing the virus to spread as much as the NHS can deal with, or will it be local eradication, followed by quarantine for travellers and improved contact-tracing?

    I predict the former because the latter is too difficult. But I wouldn't call it herd immunity. It's just managing the disease within health system capacity. Whether we get herd immunity that way depends on various factors, including the timing of a vaccine.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,393
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    A modern ethics question. My son was doing an online maths exam today on a part of the course they had not covered. He received 3 text messages asking how to do the log question. Should he have told them?
    His answer was to tell them how to do it but not the answer.

    What exams taken in this way is supposed to tell the examiner board is simply beyond me but the Highers don’t cover metaphysics.

    I would have advised against it, put it that way. Because that may now be used to determine their Highers grade even though they didn’t know how to do it.


    Although it shows he is a nice person.
    His view is that if it is open book (which it inevitably is online) he is a resource they can use. He’d make a better lawyer than me.

    And he is nice when he’s not showing off. :-)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:

    From the article posted by isam on the previous thread:

    "...looking at the experience of other countries, it is not clear that a lockdown caused the epidemic to reverse, and if Sweden suggests that sensible hygiene and modest distancing measures are likely just as effective as draconian lockdown; and
    covid-19 deaths per day are clearly levelling off in the UK; and
    there is clear evidence of a matching slowdown in reliable forward indicators"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/does-peak-infection-sync-with-lockdown-enforcement/

    Sweden just recorded 170 deaths, that would be around ~1100 with our population. It's going to get very messy there.
    Sweden has twice the population of any one of it's nordic neighbours





  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1250448724276510721?s=21
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,970
    edited April 2020
    MaxPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web. Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

    It's impossible for the RBMK to meltdown and explode, you must be wrong.
    The only possible explanation is that the Chinese government is Sinophobic.

    Therefore we must boycott the racist Chinese Government.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,678
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    Stereotomy said:

    We still seem to have kept very close to Italy + 14, at least going by the daily announced deaths.

    That would be surprising considering we have (a) a less healthy population (b) a higher proportion in urban areas and (c) had a less strict lockdown.

    Maybe it’s because Italian houses are smaller on average? (If they are, which I don’t know for sure.)
    Italy has a higher proportion of the population over 70, though.
    Italy also has a large elderly population that go to mass.

    Now, I could be wrong, but I suspect the communion cup might as well be called the covid-19 cup.
    I thought only the Priest drank the wine in Roman Catholic services.
    Lay people haven't drunk from the cup in RC ceremonies since Vatican 2 in the 60'a
    I'm 53, born and brought up.Catholic. Have never once drank at a Communion.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025