Although Germany is allowing some small shops to reopen shortly and kids to do their exams in school. They have already announced no large gatherings until at least end of August. Thats no places of worship, no music venues, etc and slightly ambiguous from the bbc report, no bars, restaurants, cinemas or cafes.
And this is Germany, who are doing well. We ain't going nowhere near returning to normal life all summer.
I fear you may be right and of course no football unless they suspend safe distancing
I guess sport, if it does resume, will be played behind closed doors....the country cricket scene won't notice much difference.
I still can't believe that Florida has deemed the old fake wrestling as an essential service. And the cage fighting lot, they plan to hire out an island and run them from there.
Maybe but football nd rugby are contact sports and not to forget the drain on the NHS and emergency services even if played behind closed doors
At the top level, i would suggest supremely fit 20 somethings risk from suffering seriously from CV is so low it isn't really a genuine concern and they can afford to test all players and staff privately.
Wasn't there some Irish top-flight footballer who ended up on a ventilator? While there is a greater chance of fighting the thing off if you're young, I think there are still a lot of factors beyond youth and fitness.
There is, but that combined with regular testing of all players and coaches, i think we are talking very risk activity. They would be much more likely to get it from daily life than kicking a ball around with 20 odd other tested people.
Sorry, I'd missed the second half of your post about these sports having the resources to test. God I miss sport.
I actually think the bigger issue is it looks like one rule for the plebs and one for the billion dollar football industry. The actual risk to players and staff can be made so minimal they are at more risk of having their career screwed by dropping an iron on their foot.
Your first sentence sums up why I cannot see it happening
Are kick abouts going to be allowed in parks and a relaxation on numbers of people allowed to gather together
The football authorities should declare the season over and award the premiership to Liverpool
I think this is the biggest stumbling block. I was just thinking though, if it really is going to be until September that you can't go out for any entertainment or social events, are people going to get very bored once they have binged watched the Netflix catalogue.
That being the case, spare a thought for all those who can't afford luxuries like Netflix in the first place.
Of the strategy, strand #1, #2, #4, have increased ventilator capacity in the NHS. Strand #3 has increased the number of CPAP masks exponentially, and that is what we appear to need.
We definitely rolled a six on that front. If we'd needed a lot more ventilators as originally anticipated .... yikes.
I think that is a bit of a circular argument. The Strand #3 designs haven't been approved, because CV doesn't react the way normal pneumonia does. If it did, they would have more than likely been approved the machines, because a) they would have been effective and b) we would need them.
But it isn't, it doesn't seem we are desperately sort of them and CPAP masks are better.
The reason for the multiple strands was to order more than was forecast to be required. On the basis that some approaches might not work...
"Waste everything except time"....
The same approach as Bill Gates wants to take with vaccines, build all the plants that are potentially needed and most of them will never start production. That is the complete opposite of a failure, as is the ventilator procurement.
I may well survive the virus, *touch wood*, but I fear I will end up popping my clogs due to intense rage provoked by all the smart alecs who will be wrting aticles about "why did we waste money/time on X" over the next few months.
Already starting to see comments and articles claiming "doubts" why did build / plan all these NHS Nightingale places....
They will be the same people who claimed the Y2K problems was a hoax with no understanding of what was actually done
I am not a Y2K hoax theorist. I am however struck by the *universal* success of the avoidance measures. If it was such a universal and intractable problem one would have expected a couple of third world countries to lose their banking or telephone systems, say, or a software-driven Chernobyl, or just something to show the rest of us what we'd so narrowly avoided?
It wasn't intractable. Most of it was quite simple to fix. Comparatively junior programmers like me, at the time, did a lot of it. Most of it was just changing two-digit date processing to four-digit. It was just an awful lot of work going through every single line of operational code.
There's a list of things that did go wrong out there.
I think we could have guessed indoor locations with good density of people are great for transmission....look at a lot of the non-chinese big initial outbreaks, cruise ships, apres ski bars, conferences and religious venues.
If the silly man compared the recorded deaths on the Outer Hebrides with those of mainland Scotland he might get the answer. Further away, further behind, less crowded.
Of the strategy, strand #1, #2, #4, have increased ventilator capacity in the NHS. Strand #3 has increased the number of CPAP masks exponentially, and that is what we appear to need.
We definitely rolled a six on that front. If we'd needed a lot more ventilators as originally anticipated .... yikes.
I think that is a bit of a circular argument. The Strand #3 designs haven't been approved, because CV doesn't react the way normal pneumonia does. If it did, they would have more than likely been approved the machines, because a) they would have been effective and b) we would need them.
But it isn't, it doesn't seem we are desperately sort of them and CPAP masks are better.
The reason for the multiple strands was to order more than was forecast to be required. On the basis that some approaches might not work...
"Waste everything except time"....
The same approach as Bill Gates wants to take with vaccines, build all the plants that are potentially needed and most of them will never start production. That is the complete opposite of a failure, as is the ventilator procurement.
I may well survive the virus, *touch wood*, but I fear I will end up popping my clogs due to intense rage provoked by all the smart alecs who will be wrting aticles about "why did we waste money/time on X" over the next few months.
Already starting to see comments and articles claiming "doubts" why did build / plan all these NHS Nightingale places....
They will be the same people who claimed the Y2K problems was a hoax with no understanding of what was actually done
I am not a Y2K hoax theorist. I am however struck by the *universal* success of the avoidance measures. If it was such a universal and intractable problem one would have expected a couple of third world countries to lose their banking or telephone systems, say, or a software-driven Chernobyl, or just something to show the rest of us what we'd so narrowly avoided?
Most of the fixes required would have been quite basic. And I can't imagine computer programmers in the Third World are any less capable than those from anywhere else.
and a lot of the the 3rd world countries would actually have had more up to date software than the basic software infrastructure the more developed countries had.
The issue for the western world was a lot of the underlying systems were based on 40 or so year old software. running on new kit and kept up to date but the costs and risks behind dumping the proven systems would have been too high.
If you were a bank yeah a lot of the applications would have been old but they worked and they had had most of the bugs discovered and removed so why risk starting from scratch ? Just keep the old cobol systems running along with their 6 digit years.
And new systems can have their own problems.... An analytics server i was admining a few years ago crashed and hung because there had been a leap second at the end of the year in 2016.
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1 Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk....
Of the strategy, strand #1, #2, #4, have increased ventilator capacity in the NHS. Strand #3 has increased the number of CPAP masks exponentially, and that is what we appear to need.
We definitely rolled a six on that front. If we'd needed a lot more ventilators as originally anticipated .... yikes.
I think that is a bit of a circular argument. The Strand #3 designs haven't been approved, because CV doesn't react the way normal pneumonia does. If it did, they would have more than likely been approved the machines, because a) they would have been effective and b) we would need them.
But it isn't, it doesn't seem we are desperately sort of them and CPAP masks are better.
The reason for the multiple strands was to order more than was forecast to be required. On the basis that some approaches might not work...
"Waste everything except time"....
The same approach as Bill Gates wants to take with vaccines, build all the plants that are potentially needed and most of them will never start production. That is the complete opposite of a failure, as is the ventilator procurement.
I may well survive the virus, *touch wood*, but I fear I will end up popping my clogs due to intense rage provoked by all the smart alecs who will be wrting aticles about "why did we waste money/time on X" over the next few months.
Already starting to see comments and articles claiming "doubts" why did build / plan all these NHS Nightingale places....
They will be the same people who claimed the Y2K problems was a hoax with no understanding of what was actually done
I am not a Y2K hoax theorist. I am however struck by the *universal* success of the avoidance measures. If it was such a universal and intractable problem one would have expected a couple of third world countries to lose their banking or telephone systems, say, or a software-driven Chernobyl, or just something to show the rest of us what we'd so narrowly avoided?
There were lots of failures. Absolutely masses. When the clocks rolled over Water pumping stations across Australia failed. Nuclear reactors shut down. Banking systems crashed.
But people were ready and poised for the problems and had run books to follow to safely restart and reboot.
But imagine of the preparation wasn't there and everyone was just having a massive piss up when all the problems happened?
Also loads of millennium bug problems had happened and been fixed in the years leading up. Supermarket stock taking systems failed (rejecting in-date goods as they thought they were from the turn of the 20tg century), one of the earliest failures was mortgage systems in the 80s who started failing to be able to process mortgage applications going I to the new millennium etc.
There was just huge amounts of problems spread over decades.
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1 Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk....
By the early 17th century, the frequency of outbreaks prompted the Privy Council to issue an order that theatres should close when the death toll rose above 30 a week. In the decade between 1603 and 1613 “the total theatrical closures due to the plague accumulated to a grand total of 78 months,” says William Baker in his book William Shakespeare.
Of the strategy, strand #1, #2, #4, have increased ventilator capacity in the NHS. Strand #3 has increased the number of CPAP masks exponentially, and that is what we appear to need.
We definitely rolled a six on that front. If we'd needed a lot more ventilators as originally anticipated .... yikes.
I think that is a bit of a circular argument. The Strand #3 designs haven't been approved, because CV doesn't react the way normal pneumonia does. If it did, they would have more than likely been approved the machines, because a) they would have been effective and b) we would need them.
But it isn't, it doesn't seem we are desperately sort of them and CPAP masks are better.
The reason for the multiple strands was to order more than was forecast to be required. On the basis that some approaches might not work...
"Waste everything except time"....
The same approach as Bill Gates wants to take with vaccines, build all the plants that are potentially needed and most of them will never start production. That is the complete opposite of a failure, as is the ventilator procurement.
I may well survive the virus, *touch wood*, but I fear I will end up popping my clogs due to intense rage provoked by all the smart alecs who will be wrting aticles about "why did we waste money/time on X" over the next few months.
Already starting to see comments and articles claiming "doubts" why did build / plan all these NHS Nightingale places....
They will be the same people who claimed the Y2K problems was a hoax with no understanding of what was actually done
I am not a Y2K hoax theorist. I am however struck by the *universal* success of the avoidance measures. If it was such a universal and intractable problem one would have expected a couple of third world countries to lose their banking or telephone systems, say, or a software-driven Chernobyl, or just something to show the rest of us what we'd so narrowly avoided?
There were lots of failures. Absolutely masses. When the clocks rolled over Water pumping stations across Australia failed. Nuclear reactors shut down. Banking systems crashed.
But people were ready and poised for the problems and had run books to follow to safely restart and reboot.
But imagine of the preparation wasn't there and everyone was just having a massive piss up when all the problems happened?
Also loads of millennium bug problems had happened and been fixed in the years leading up. Supermarket stock taking systems failed (rejecting in-date goods as they thought they were from the turn of the 20tg century), one of the earliest failures was mortgage systems in the 80s who started failing to be able to process mortgage applications going I to the new millennium etc.
There was just huge amounts of problems spread over decades.
There were but problems can be faced and adapted to and fixed so long as they're taken seriously by the relevant people. That should be the moral of the story.
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1 Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk....
I think we could have guessed indoor locations with good density of people are great for transmission....look at a lot of the non-chinese big initial outbreaks, cruise ships, apres ski bars, conferences and religious venues.
Agreed, but the figures from that survey are nonetheless striking.
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1 Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk....
Although Germany is allowing some small shops to reopen shortly and kids to do their exams in school. They have already announced no large gatherings until at least end of August. Thats no places of worship, no music venues, etc and slightly ambiguous from the bbc report, no bars, restaurants, cinemas or cafes.
And this is Germany, who are doing well. We ain't going nowhere near returning to normal life all summer.
I fear you may be right and of course no football unless they suspend safe distancing
I guess sport, if it does resume, will be played behind closed doors....the country cricket scene won't notice much difference.
I still can't believe that Florida has deemed the old fake wrestling as an essential service. And the cage fighting lot, they plan to hire out an island and run them from there.
Maybe but football nd rugby are contact sports and not to forget the drain on the NHS and emergency services even if played behind closed doors
At the top level, i would suggest supremely fit 20 somethings risk from suffering seriously from CV is so low it isn't really a genuine concern and they can afford to test all players and staff privately.
Wasn't there some Irish top-flight footballer who ended up on a ventilator? While there is a greater chance of fighting the thing off if you're young, I think there are still a lot of factors beyond youth and fitness.
There is, but that combined with regular testing of all players and coaches, i think we are talking very risk activity. They would be much more likely to get it from daily life than kicking a ball around with 20 odd other tested people.
Sorry, I'd missed the second half of your post about these sports having the resources to test. God I miss sport.
I actually think the bigger issue is it looks like one rule for the plebs and one for the billion dollar football industry. The actual risk to players and staff can be made so minimal they are at more risk of having their career screwed by dropping an iron on their foot.
Your first sentence sums up why I cannot see it happening
Are kick abouts going to be allowed in parks and a relaxation on numbers of people allowed to gather together
The football authorities should declare the season over and award the premiership to Liverpool
I think this is the biggest stumbling block. I was just thinking though, if it really is going to be until September that you can't go out for any entertainment or social events, are people going to get very bored once they have binged watched the Netflix catalogue.
That being the case, spare a thought for all those who can't afford luxuries like Netflix in the first place.
Prepare yourselves I'm about to post the dumbest comment yet about the coronavirus.
This is Covid-19, not Covid-1, folks. You would think that people charged with the World Health Organization facts and figures would be on top of that. This is just a pause right now.
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1 Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk....
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1 Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk....
I do not think it is anything to do with A & E as covid patients are not normally triaged there
As far as doctors surgeries are concerned ours are telephone triage only and no admittance by turning up, no doubt similar to Scotland
Probably relative levels of urbanization. It'll all come out in the wash, of course, but the UK Government's daily graph of hospitalizations shows Scotland doing vastly better than London - even allowing for the fact that London is substantially more populous than Scotland - but running at fairly similar numbers hospitalised to the South East, which is also substantially more populous than Scotland, and some way worse than the East of England, which has about the same population as Scotland but significantly fewer hospitalisations. The South West, which also has a broadly similar population to Scotland, has the lowest number of hospitalisations for Covid-19 of any of the regions of Great Britain.
My guess would be that, if we plotted a graph of hospitalisation (or death) rates per capita, versus the percentage of the total population in each country/region inhabiting major cities and other densely populated areas, one would obtain something approximating to a straight line.
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1 Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk....
Comments
Any model of optimal policy should be “what should we do now, knowing the lockdown can’t last very long?” rather than “what is the optimal length of lockdown?”
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/re-starting-the-economy.html
As far as doctors surgeries are concerned ours are telephone triage only and no admittance by turning up, no doubt similar to Scotland
The issue for the western world was a lot of the underlying systems were based on 40 or so year old software. running on new kit and kept up to date but the costs and risks behind dumping the proven systems would have been too high.
If you were a bank yeah a lot of the applications would have been old but they worked and they had had most of the bugs discovered and removed so why risk starting from scratch ? Just keep the old cobol systems running along with their 6 digit years.
And new systems can have their own problems.... An analytics server i was admining a few years ago crashed and hung because there had been a leap second at the end of the year in 2016.
But people were ready and poised for the problems and had run books to follow to safely restart and reboot.
But imagine of the preparation wasn't there and everyone was just having a massive piss up when all the problems happened?
Also loads of millennium bug problems had happened and been fixed in the years leading up. Supermarket stock taking systems failed (rejecting in-date goods as they thought they were from the turn of the 20tg century), one of the earliest failures was mortgage systems in the 80s who started failing to be able to process mortgage applications going I to the new millennium etc.
There was just huge amounts of problems spread over decades.
..
Loads of adapting the way we live and do business.
@bigjohnowls had it right
Hugh’s donation is commendable.
This is Covid-19, not Covid-1, folks. You would think that people charged with the World Health Organization facts and figures would be on top of that. This is just a pause right now.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/15/politics/kellyanne-conway-covid-19-coronavirus/index.html
My guess would be that, if we plotted a graph of hospitalisation (or death) rates per capita, versus the percentage of the total population in each country/region inhabiting major cities and other densely populated areas, one would obtain something approximating to a straight line.
Realistically higher risk venues like that probably won’t be able to anytime soon.
Cinemas, theatres.... possibly.
My reaction was: well done, thank you
I presume they lost their predicting dice and so can't update their model.