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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the daily death rate edges closer to 1,000 YouGov finds str

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  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311

    Anyway - anyone got plans for Easter?

    Easter egg hunt on Sunday.
    I see plenty of people (including the NZ PM) advocating sticking a picture of an easter egg in their window so children can go and "find" them.

    Not sure whether this does or doesn't comply with the regs. As part of their exercise presumably.
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    FWIW on the lockdown.

    Last night the Malmaison/Hotel Du Vin group rang me last night to say all my bookings for May were being cancelled as they won’t be opening in May.

    They aren’t the only hotel group to contact me yesterday to cancel my May bookings.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    HYUFD said:

    Labour is only now led by Starmer not Corbyn precisely because Corbyn was trounced on December 12th, if it had been a hung parliament with Labour largest party Corbyn would now be PM

    I'm not one to deny a strong point made against the case I'm arguing and this is such a point.

    Your other one though - polls showing Leavers still want to leave - rather supports what I'm saying. The support is on the slide and it would be amazing, given the circumstances and the trauma which lies ahead of us, if that trend were not to continue.

    I bet you that come October there will less than a third of the public in favour of leaving the EU. Happy to do a £5 charity wager if you fancy I'm wrong.
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    TOPPING said:

    Anyway - anyone got plans for Easter?

    Easter egg hunt on Sunday.
    I see plenty of people (including the NZ PM) advocating sticking a picture of an easter egg in their window so children can go and "find" them.

    Not sure whether this does or doesn't comply with the regs. As part of their exercise presumably.
    Our egg hunt will cover the garden and the house.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    Can't break those social distancing rules....

    Some street dealers have even been "throwing drugs to their customers" in keeping with the 2m (6ft) social distancing guidelines.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited April 2020

    Anyway - anyone got plans for Easter?

    Canvassing for the LibDems for the local elections. Everyone's at home so we should get a good response.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    I can confirm I have refused the use of my extensive array of trebuchets following enquiries from narcotics' pedlars regarding their potential use to facilitate transactions.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,427
    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    My WFH expenses are a sub to gotomypc at £32 / month, a stapler, notepad, some pencils and some staples.
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    fox327fox327 Posts: 366
    The government is working on its review of the coronavirus crisis response. I have drawn my own conclusions. The chances of finding vaccines are maybe not extremely high but are greater than zero. Something may be found that is better than nothing and that helps to reduce deaths. Herd immunity may never happen if recovery from coronavirus does not lead to life-long immunity.

    However, I believe that we will have to live with coronavirus for many years, and that we will gradually return to a normal way of life. It is now all about the process by which this happens. The lockdown is sustainable in the short term, and it will be reduced little by little over the long term.

    Many jobs that have been furloughed will disappear as the organisations that created them are wound up. Companies will slowly eliminate working from home due to low productivity. Millions will become unemployed and will ask for the lockdown to be eased so that jobs will come back. In time the full effects of the lockdown will become obvious and choices will be made leading to a return to normality.

    People will go on dying from coronavirus every day just as they die from heart disease, road accidents, and many other things. Life expectancy will be reduced but most people dying from COVID are over 80 [1], so there will not be a massive change in the pattern of people's lives. It says in Psalms 90:10
    "The days of our years are threescore years and ten;
    and if by reason of strength they be fourscore years,
    yet is their strength labour and sorrow;
    for it is soon cut off, and we fly away."

    It is too soon to say for sure, but I suspect that coronavirus can't be eliminated, and we will have to learn to live with it.

    [1] https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/03/coronavirus-deaths-age-uk-12506448/
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Pulpstar said:

    My WFH expenses are a sub to gotomypc at £32 / month, a stapler, notepad, some pencils and some staples.

    You’re clearly not doing it properly.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,682
    Assumptions in the US on when lockdown may end - behind 20,000 reduction in expected death toll (now 60k):

    New data on the pandemic's trajectory -- from the United States and around the world -- has been fed into the model almost every day, driving the changes. And the downward adjustment suggests that social distancing may be working better than expected in some places.

    The pain may last until August -- The updated model assumes social distancing measures, including the closure of schools and businesses, will remain in place until August.


    https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/what-matters-april-8/index.html

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2020

    Assumptions in the US on when lockdown may end - behind 20,000 reduction in expected death toll (now 60k):

    New data on the pandemic's trajectory -- from the United States and around the world -- has been fed into the model almost every day, driving the changes. And the downward adjustment suggests that social distancing may be working better than expected in some places.

    The pain may last until August -- The updated model assumes social distancing measures, including the closure of schools and businesses, will remain in place until August.


    https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/what-matters-april-8/index.html

    That is based on the University of Washington model, which as we know at least for the UK, it absolutely horseshit.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,427

    I can confirm I have refused the use of my extensive array of trebuchets following enquiries from narcotics' pedlars regarding their potential use to facilitate transactions.

    What are the Haddock doing? Have they applied to join the Press Lobby?

    By the way, the correct term is Community Integrated Street Pharmaceutical Retail ers.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,427

    Assumptions in the US on when lockdown may end - behind 20,000 reduction in expected death toll (now 60k):

    New data on the pandemic's trajectory -- from the United States and around the world -- has been fed into the model almost every day, driving the changes. And the downward adjustment suggests that social distancing may be working better than expected in some places.

    The pain may last until August -- The updated model assumes social distancing measures, including the closure of schools and businesses, will remain in place until August.


    https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/what-matters-april-8/index.html

    That is based on the University of Washington model, which as we know at least for the UK, it absolutely horseshit.
    Are they still on 800 ICU beds for the whole UK?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Anyway - anyone got plans for Easter?

    It gets so busy, I think I'll just stay at home, miss that crazy rush on the M5....
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Germans seem more optimistic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-boris-johnson-updates-uk-cases-deaths/

    11:49am
    Progress on groundbreaking German antibody test
    This just in from Justin Huggler, our man in Berlin:

    A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

    "This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

    Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Malmesbury, I initially had the enormo-haddock knock on the doors of the elderly to offer their services assisting with grocery shopping and delivery, but after the first few heart attacks I decided they ought to desist from this course of action.

    Your term reminds me of when a classmate was applying to a university and described his job of a barman as a beverage distribution technician.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    edited April 2020

    DavidL said:

    I know it’ll come as a big shock to PBers but a lot of constituents are contacting their MPs, much more than usual.

    Why?
    When you can’t get signed up for universal credit after days of trying you contact your MP.
    I know someone who has been downloading messages on a Coronavirus helpline for the council (leave name and number, we'll call you back). Lots of desperate frightened people out there who literally don't know where to turn. Also diddies who want to know if they'll get a council tax rebate 'cos of reduced council services due to the virus, but very much in the minority.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My WFH expenses are a sub to gotomypc at £32 / month, a stapler, notepad, some pencils and some staples.

    You’re clearly not doing it properly.
    You're clearly not an MP!
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    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour is only now led by Starmer not Corbyn precisely because Corbyn was trounced on December 12th, if it had been a hung parliament with Labour largest party Corbyn would now be PM

    I'm not one to deny a strong point made against the case I'm arguing and this is such a point.

    Your other one though - polls showing Leavers still want to leave - rather supports what I'm saying. The support is on the slide and it would be amazing, given the circumstances and the trauma which lies ahead of us, if that trend were not to continue.

    I bet you that come October there will less than a third of the public in favour of leaving the EU. Happy to do a £5 charity wager if you fancy I'm wrong.
    We have already left so it is not about remaining but the deal or even no deal outcome that is relevant. We are not re-joining
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,463
    kinabalu said:

    As a left-leaner I disagree. It's not 'a safe bet' that the result would have been that. It's massive speculation.

    The Conservatives won fair and square under Boris: a handsome victory. They are in charge and they need to sort this out.

    The thread-header opinion polling on a GNU was little better than voodoo polling. How are you supposed to oppose such an eminently sensible sounding, but profoundly leading, question?

    I don't think Labour should get drawn into this. There are (allegedly) plenty of highly capable Conservative ministers. They can sort it out. What they, and the country, need is a strong, healthy, Boris Johnson back at the helm, not tapping up outsiders.

    A left-leaner? Hmm. It's possible that you are but the 'look and feel' is not quite right.

    But, yes, I agree with you that a GNU can safely join Corbyn as PM, EURef2, and Trump's re-election as a Not Happening Event. I also agree that Labour should steer well clear of it if it was offered.

    As for the Cons winning the election fair and square, yes they did. It was a great victory for them and it provided a clear mandate. Trouble is, the mandate has been demolished in very short order by events. There is just the one issue now - coronavirus - and it received not a single mention in the manifesto.
    You could argue that any governments mandate gets lost because they often have to react to events unforeseen at the time of the election. We can not stop the world turning for five years. Our current democratic system seeks to strike a balance between the view that we need to give the public a say on government policy, but to enable the eventual government that is elected to actually govern in light of the circumstances that may arise in the period between elections.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2020
    TGOHF666 said:

    Germans seem more optimistic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-boris-johnson-updates-uk-cases-deaths/

    11:49am
    Progress on groundbreaking German antibody test
    This just in from Justin Huggler, our man in Berlin:

    A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

    "This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

    Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

    Porton Down can do antibody testing. They have I believe 700+ ground-truth samples. The problem is scaling it up and doing it in a "at home" type settings. It seems the sensitivity required to detect the levels of antibodies in some is very high, especially those who didn't suffer symptons or only minor ones. And this was the problem with the Chinese ones that claimed 98-99% accuracy, they are only that accurate on patients that really suffered badly with CV.
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 936
    kinabalu said:

    As for the Cons winning the election fair and square, yes they did. It was a great victory for them and it provided a clear mandate. Trouble is, the mandate has been demolished in very short order by events. There is just the one issue now - coronavirus - and it received not a single mention in the manifesto.

    But it's always the case that events come along that the government must react to which nobody foresaw and which were mentioned in no manifesto, even if they're usually not as all-consuming as this one. That's one reason why I think it's reasonable to vote not merely on policies and manifesto commitments but on the more general question of whether a party's political philosophy and outlook seem sensible and in accord with your own -- you are of necessity trying to judge whether they'll make the right choices on both the unexpected questions and on the myriad of smaller questions too minor to merit a note in the manifesto.

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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,197

    Mr Starmer might have to be cancelling another Labour councillor's membership...

    https://order-order.com/2020/04/09/labour-councillor-thinks-boriss-icu-stay-publicity-stunt/

    Guido is turning into something of a national treasure. There will be no elected Labour officials left at this rate!

    No government of National Unity! Boris and his boys and girls have been doing a very decent job so far, and I say that as one not being of-the-faith.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    No need to import labour for fruit and veg in the near future https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52215606

    Interesting. We were told that foreign workers were necessary to do these jobs.
    Lots of people with little or no income, or just fed up with being indoors, are prepared to give it a go. Suspect it's no more than that.

    Agreed, the real test will be how easy farmers find it to find UK labour if and when we are back to normal.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    kle4 said:

    If none of us can know how can we also consider that outcome a safe bet?

    A "safe bet" is just parlance for something that on the evidence looks to a rational person extremely likely to be the case. So, here, the "something" is the GE19 outcome if ceteris paribus except for 3 things. (1) Starmer leads Labour. (2) Brexit is a non issue. (3) The NHS is THE issue.

    That to me spells Labour largest party but short of a majority. And yes I know it's all hypothetical and not of the remotest relevance to when the lockdown will be lifted, but it's surely food for thought that despite what the election would have produced if today's circumstances had prevailed we are nevertheless stuck with a landslide Tory government.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Jonathan said:


    The 'grown-up' approach is to share and discuss the criteria on which the decision will be made. You don't need to say exactly when it will happen to make progress on the goals of the policy. If a relaxation is weeks away, we should know what we want to achieve by the lockdown now.

    You are making the same error Sir Keir deliberately makes - to pretend that the only uncertainty is the duration.

    As for what we want to achieve by lockdown, what could possibly be clearer? To save lives and to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. It's not exactly complicated, and it has been repeated ad nauseam by the government. How we end it - indeed how any country ends it - is completely unknown at this stage. We just have to be patient.
    So you think the government and experts shouldn't yet be thinking about this question at all, or that they should be thinking about it but keeping their deliberations a secret?
    The latter, given the utter incapacity of the media, and sadly it now seems the Leader of the Opposition, to be able to understand that it is simply not possible to come up with an immediate set of conclusions.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,427
    Thank you - a clear and interesting piece of work.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Using the Worldometer daily death chart the same pattern has repeated 3 times now
    The 22nd and 23rd both had lower deaths than the 21st.
    The 29th and 30th both had lower deaths than the 28th
    The 5th and 6th both had lower deaths than the 4th
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Mr Starmer might have to be cancelling another Labour councillor's membership...

    https://order-order.com/2020/04/09/labour-councillor-thinks-boriss-icu-stay-publicity-stunt/

    Jeez - and that's b4 he starts expelling the anti-semites - there's gonna be none left! :smiley:
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    PhilPhil Posts: 1,941


    We have already left so it is not about remaining but the deal or even no deal outcome that is relevant. We are not re-joining

    At this particular point in time, we have "left" in name only. It is a legal leaving that could be undone with the stroke of a pen, were all parties concerned willing to reverse it.

    (For clarity’s sake: I don’t expect this to happen but that doesn’t make it impossible - merely very unlikely.)
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Anyway - anyone got plans for Easter?

    I'm eggspecting to stay home reading PB! :wink::smiley::blush:
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    ABZABZ Posts: 441

    TGOHF666 said:

    Germans seem more optimistic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-boris-johnson-updates-uk-cases-deaths/

    11:49am
    Progress on groundbreaking German antibody test
    This just in from Justin Huggler, our man in Berlin:

    A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

    "This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

    Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

    Porton Down can do antibody testing. They have I believe 700+ ground-truth samples. The problem is scaling it up and doing it in a "at home" type settings. It seems the sensitivity required to detect the levels of antibodies in some is very high, especially those who didn't suffer symptons or only minor ones. And this was the problem with the Chinese ones that claimed 98-99% accuracy, they are only that accurate on patients that really suffered badly with CV.
    Though, with a well-designed study, the need to sample the whole population is not necessary. The ability to do ELISAs is not a problem for this, which will be sufficient to direct government strategy moving forward.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,661
    edited April 2020
    kinabalu said:

    As a left-leaner I disagree. It's not 'a safe bet' that the result would have been that. It's massive speculation.

    The Conservatives won fair and square under Boris: a handsome victory. They are in charge and they need to sort this out.

    The thread-header opinion polling on a GNU was little better than voodoo polling. How are you supposed to oppose such an eminently sensible sounding, but profoundly leading, question?

    I don't think Labour should get drawn into this. There are (allegedly) plenty of highly capable Conservative ministers. They can sort it out. What they, and the country, need is a strong, healthy, Boris Johnson back at the helm, not tapping up outsiders.

    A left-leaner? Hmm. It's possible that you are but the 'look and feel' is not quite right.

    But, yes, I agree with you that a GNU can safely join Corbyn as PM, EURef2, and Trump's re-election as a Not Happening Event. I also agree that Labour should steer well clear of it if it was offered.

    As for the Cons winning the election fair and square, yes they did. It was a great victory for them and it provided a clear mandate. Trouble is, the mandate has been demolished in very short order by events. There is just the one issue now - coronavirus - and it received not a single mention in the manifesto.
    Their mandate has not been demolished by events. It lasts 5 years regardless of events.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I had a day off yesterday. It was actually really nice.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    Using the Worldometer daily death chart the same pattern has repeated 3 times now
    The 22nd and 23rd both had lower deaths than the 21st.
    The 29th and 30th both had lower deaths than the 28th
    The 5th and 6th both had lower deaths than the 4th

    If the way the UK does it, the daily death numbers announced aren't really that useful. Included today will be people who died up to a week ago, and the distribution of deaths vs how many days back alters every day depending on a load of different factors.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    Stocky said:

    I think this is what Alastair is banking on!!

    And me. A second referendum would have been preferable but we'll take a killer virus.

    The dream lives on.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    ABZ said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Germans seem more optimistic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-boris-johnson-updates-uk-cases-deaths/

    11:49am
    Progress on groundbreaking German antibody test
    This just in from Justin Huggler, our man in Berlin:

    A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

    "This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

    Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

    Porton Down can do antibody testing. They have I believe 700+ ground-truth samples. The problem is scaling it up and doing it in a "at home" type settings. It seems the sensitivity required to detect the levels of antibodies in some is very high, especially those who didn't suffer symptons or only minor ones. And this was the problem with the Chinese ones that claimed 98-99% accuracy, they are only that accurate on patients that really suffered badly with CV.
    Though, with a well-designed study, the need to sample the whole population is not necessary. The ability to do ELISAs is not a problem for this, which will be sufficient to direct government strategy moving forward.
    Fair point.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,311
    edited April 2020
    I hope visitors do not attempt to come to Wales this weekend as they will meet police officers at the borders and a very uncomfortable welcome from locals.

    Our LA has placed no waiting, towing away, signs all along our promenades with the result that no one is parking along the beachfront, not even the locals

    Indeed a local was challenged when she drove to the promenade to walk her dog and the police required her post code, following the production of it it was declared that her visit was contrary to Welsh government covid legislation. She received a warning but the local press and facebook are promoting it as a warning to all, including those of us who are local
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Phil said:


    We have already left so it is not about remaining but the deal or even no deal outcome that is relevant. We are not re-joining

    At this particular point in time, we have "left" in name only. It is a legal leaving that could be undone with the stroke of a pen, were all parties concerned willing to reverse it.

    (For clarity’s sake: I don’t expect this to happen but that doesn’t make it impossible - merely very unlikely.)
    The covid crisis has surely cemented any lingering doubts that the benefits beyond trade access of the EU are minimal or actually there are some negatives - particularly in a crisis.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    I hope visitors do not attempt to come to Wales this weekend as they will meet police officers at the borders and a very uncomfortable welcome from locals.

    Our LA has placed no waiting, towing away, signs all along our promenades with the result that no one is parking along the beachfront, not even the locals

    Indeed a local was challenged when she drove to the promenade to walk her dog and the police required her post code, following the production of it was declared that her visit was contrary to Welsh goverment covid legislation. She received a warning but the local press and facebook are promoting it as a warning to all including those of us who are local

    I hope the government are really strong on this today / tomorrow. If people decide to be morons, it risks all of the progress currently been made.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    The PSOE leader also called for the EU to come together to tackle the crisis.
    “The EU is in danger if there is no solidarity,” he said, “This scenario requires strength. Cuts and austerity are not the way forward.” Olive Press Spain.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    TGOHF666 said:

    Germans seem more optimistic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-boris-johnson-updates-uk-cases-deaths/

    11:49am
    Progress on groundbreaking German antibody test
    This just in from Justin Huggler, our man in Berlin:

    A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

    "This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

    Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

    This suggests those who have survived an infection have immunity to the virus, the scientists said.

    "The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 percent we need for herd immunity," Prof Gunther Hartmann, another member of the study, said. "With 60 to 70 percent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk."

    Am I missing something here? 15% is a long way from 60%.
  • Options
    Phil said:


    We have already left so it is not about remaining but the deal or even no deal outcome that is relevant. We are not re-joining

    At this particular point in time, we have "left" in name only. It is a legal leaving that could be undone with the stroke of a pen, were all parties concerned willing to reverse it.

    (For clarity’s sake: I don’t expect this to happen but that doesn’t make it impossible - merely very unlikely.)
    No it is a treaty but it would require a lot more than a stroke of the pen
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Why did the BCG vaccination program end in the UK? I thought everyone had the scar.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2020
    Labour's new shadow chancellor said an exit strategy from the lockdown needs to be "driven by the scientific evidence, but also by what hasn't worked in other countries".

    So they will be ok with waiting for a bit then until people have had chance to model various options? I hope they are.
  • Options
    prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 441
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    That's quite impressive. Given a high-end laptop comes in at £1,500, Dropbox and Webex are either free or $10 a month, and a 'burner' mobile phone is £500 plus £50 a month for unlimited calls, how the hell does an MP come close to spending £10k on working from home??
    For a government with no income that cannot be justified.
    It's bonkers, but typical of the way MPs personally have no scruples about voting themselves more largesse funded by the taxpayer.

    Almost all will actually *need* no more than a phone number so they're not making calls from their personal mobile, and these days I could configure a softphone system, to make it look like they're in the office when they're not, for a few hundred quid all in.

    I guess it's good news for Apple, they've probably just sold a couple of thousand laptops and phones.
    MPs have, of course, not voted themselves any largesse. The decision was taken by IPSA which is independent. MPs have no say at all.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    felix said:

    The PSOE leader also called for the EU to come together to tackle the crisis.
    “The EU is in danger if there is no solidarity,” he said, “This scenario requires strength. Cuts and austerity are not the way forward.” Olive Press Spain.

    I'm sure the response could have been better, but they tend to overplay the 'EU is in danger' card.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,427

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,407

    I hope visitors do not attempt to come to Wales this weekend as they will meet police officers at the borders and a very uncomfortable welcome from locals.

    Our LA has placed no waiting, towing away, signs all along our promenades with the result that no one is parking along the beachfront, not even the locals

    Indeed a local was challenged when she drove to the promenade to walk her dog and the police required her post code, following the production of it was declared that her visit was contrary to Welsh goverment covid legislation. She received a warning but the local press and facebook are promoting it as a warning to all including those of us who are local

    I hope the government are really strong on this today / tomorrow. If people decide to be morons, it risks all of the progress currently been made.
    Unless they publicise it in advance, it will just create more chaos.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    I hope visitors do not attempt to come to Wales this weekend as they will meet police officers at the borders and a very uncomfortable welcome from locals.

    Same as last Easter then? ;)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2020

    I hope visitors do not attempt to come to Wales this weekend as they will meet police officers at the borders and a very uncomfortable welcome from locals.

    Our LA has placed no waiting, towing away, signs all along our promenades with the result that no one is parking along the beachfront, not even the locals

    Indeed a local was challenged when she drove to the promenade to walk her dog and the police required her post code, following the production of it was declared that her visit was contrary to Welsh goverment covid legislation. She received a warning but the local press and facebook are promoting it as a warning to all including those of us who are local

    I hope the government are really strong on this today / tomorrow. If people decide to be morons, it risks all of the progress currently been made.
    Unless they publicise it in advance, it will just create more chaos.
    They really should be running ads all today across tv and social media.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,682
    RobD said:

    Why did the BCG vaccination program end in the UK? I thought everyone had the scar.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4655355.stm
  • Options
    BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    TGOHF666 said:

    Germans seem more optimistic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-boris-johnson-updates-uk-cases-deaths/

    11:49am
    Progress on groundbreaking German antibody test
    This just in from Justin Huggler, our man in Berlin:

    A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

    "This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

    Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

    This suggests those who have survived an infection have immunity to the virus, the scientists said.

    "The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 percent we need for herd immunity," Prof Gunther Hartmann, another member of the study, said. "With 60 to 70 percent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk."

    Am I missing something here? 15% is a long way from 60%.
    I'm guessing he means that the 15% has been achieved relatively quickly, so the remaining 45% might also not be too far away, but it does sound a bit counter-intuitive.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Phil said:


    We have already left so it is not about remaining but the deal or even no deal outcome that is relevant. We are not re-joining

    At this particular point in time, we have "left" in name only. It is a legal leaving that could be undone with the stroke of a pen, were all parties concerned willing to reverse it.

    (For clarity’s sake: I don’t expect this to happen but that doesn’t make it impossible - merely very unlikely.)
    No it is a treaty but it would require a lot more than a stroke of the pen
    I hadn't considered it before because I'd assumed the EU would force us to go through a reaccession process if we wanted to rejoin, but maybe there could be a treaty to nullify the withdrawal agreement instead.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,463
    For a minute I read that wrong and thought one of the dogs was actually called Corona.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249

    Anyway - anyone got plans for Easter?

    It gets so busy, I think I'll just stay at home, miss that crazy rush on the M5....
    I'll be hitting 'refresh' on the Sainsbury's delivery website.
  • Options
    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    No chance the Uk is rejoining - if anything the EU will do well not to lose other members.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/08/raw-emotion-unpayable-debt-have-brought-eus-simmering-north/

    "“It’s a disgrace for the Eurogroup and for Europe,” exploded France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire. “While we are counting thousands of deaths, the finance ministers play with words and adjectives. We’re going to be judged severely by the markets and by our own populations.”"

    "Italy’s premier says Europe will lose its “raison d’etre” if it fails to come through with anything beyond loans on insulting Dutch terms in the greatest peace-time shock for a hundred years or more. Why should Italy continue to give up the sovereign tools of self-defence if the EU will not act? "
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    This is a really interesting angle, I wish there was more discussion on the subject, as it could lead to millions of people quickly being able to live normal lives.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    I see PB Tories have reached the penal colonies stage of lockdown fever. Public executions by the weekend?
  • Options

    I hope visitors do not attempt to come to Wales this weekend as they will meet police officers at the borders and a very uncomfortable welcome from locals.

    Same as last Easter then? ;)
    We have always welcomed visitors with open arms from across the world as it is the lifeblood of our economy. The pain it causes for us to say stay away is unbelievable

    The damage this is doing to our local businesses is horrific, but the public are in support of all measures to maintain the lockdown
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Glenn, how would that theoretical situation come about?

    Let us assume the EU would happily play ball. It requires a PM and a Commons who wants us to stay in as we were.

    We have neither. We have no prospect of having either within the next few years, during the course of which the de jure departure will become de facto.

    For years pro-EU MPs had a majority. They couldn't even get anything done then. How they expect to do so with a minority is beyond me.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    That's quite impressive. Given a high-end laptop comes in at £1,500, Dropbox and Webex are either free or $10 a month, and a 'burner' mobile phone is £500 plus £50 a month for unlimited calls, how the hell does an MP come close to spending £10k on working from home??
    For a government with no income that cannot be justified.
    It's bonkers, but typical of the way MPs personally have no scruples about voting themselves more largesse funded by the taxpayer.

    Almost all will actually *need* no more than a phone number so they're not making calls from their personal mobile, and these days I could configure a softphone system, to make it look like they're in the office when they're not, for a few hundred quid all in.

    I guess it's good news for Apple, they've probably just sold a couple of thousand laptops and phones.
    Got have an iPad Pro as well...you know in case you lose your iMac and your iPhone.
    It’s for their staff who normally work in the constituency office but now are now working from home.
    For just doing emails and word processing, you can get a Chromebook or a cheap laptop for just £300-400.
    Even then I think if you’ve got six staff that’s £2,500.

    For example LBG, HSBC, and my own employer are paying staff to buy their own chairs to avoid back pain.

    But there’s other costs for working from home.
    Not £10,000
    Had a chat with an MP friend of mine last night, and most MPs are spending half that amount on a mailshot to constituents outlining sources of help
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    Why did the BCG vaccination program end in the UK? I thought everyone had the scar.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4655355.stm
    But experts now believe the jab is pointless for most children, who are at very low risk of the disease anyway.

    Thankfully they never grow up. :smiley:
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,407
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    As a left-leaner I disagree. It's not 'a safe bet' that the result would have been that. It's massive speculation.

    The Conservatives won fair and square under Boris: a handsome victory. They are in charge and they need to sort this out.

    The thread-header opinion polling on a GNU was little better than voodoo polling. How are you supposed to oppose such an eminently sensible sounding, but profoundly leading, question?

    I don't think Labour should get drawn into this. There are (allegedly) plenty of highly capable Conservative ministers. They can sort it out. What they, and the country, need is a strong, healthy, Boris Johnson back at the helm, not tapping up outsiders.

    A left-leaner? Hmm. It's possible that you are but the 'look and feel' is not quite right.

    But, yes, I agree with you that a GNU can safely join Corbyn as PM, EURef2, and Trump's re-election as a Not Happening Event. I also agree that Labour should steer well clear of it if it was offered.

    As for the Cons winning the election fair and square, yes they did. It was a great victory for them and it provided a clear mandate. Trouble is, the mandate has been demolished in very short order by events. There is just the one issue now - coronavirus - and it received not a single mention in the manifesto.
    Their mandate has not been demolished by events. It lasts 5 years regardless of events.
    The Conservative government can last till the next election. Mandates have always been a bit of a polite political fiction but if the mandate is taken to be proposals in the manifesto and anything else campaigned on, then the Conservative mandate is a lot more left-leaning than probably most Conservative voters realise, and owes a lot to Labour 2017.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited April 2020

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    That's quite impressive. Given a high-end laptop comes in at £1,500, Dropbox and Webex are either free or $10 a month, and a 'burner' mobile phone is £500 plus £50 a month for unlimited calls, how the hell does an MP come close to spending £10k on working from home??
    For a government with no income that cannot be justified.
    It's bonkers, but typical of the way MPs personally have no scruples about voting themselves more largesse funded by the taxpayer.

    Almost all will actually *need* no more than a phone number so they're not making calls from their personal mobile, and these days I could configure a softphone system, to make it look like they're in the office when they're not, for a few hundred quid all in.

    I guess it's good news for Apple, they've probably just sold a couple of thousand laptops and phones.
    MPs have, of course, not voted themselves any largesse. The decision was taken by IPSA which is independent. MPs have no say at all.
    Really? IPSA can find an extra £6.5m of public money, or it’s from an existing budget?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    RobD said:

    Why did the BCG vaccination program end in the UK? I thought everyone had the scar.
    I had it as a child but would frankly be surprised if it can be giving much protection. I mean we all had the BCG in those days.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    You could have saved yourself a keystroke there, you don't have to specify c in -40°c.
  • Options
    ABZABZ Posts: 441
    maaarsh said:
    From this, and the hospital admissions, it does seem that the curve is definitely flattening, which is good news.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Labour's new shadow chancellor said an exit strategy from the lockdown needs to be "driven by the scientific evidence, but also by what hasn't worked in other countries".

    So they will be ok with waiting for a bit then until people have had chance to model various options? I hope they are.

    Lol - the only country to have come out of lockdown really is China. Is she for real?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,115
    TGOHF666 said:

    No chance the Uk is rejoining - if anything the EU will do well not to lose other members.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/08/raw-emotion-unpayable-debt-have-brought-eus-simmering-north/

    "“It’s a disgrace for the Eurogroup and for Europe,” exploded France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire. “While we are counting thousands of deaths, the finance ministers play with words and adjectives. We’re going to be judged severely by the markets and by our own populations.”"

    "Italy’s premier says Europe will lose its “raison d’etre” if it fails to come through with anything beyond loans on insulting Dutch terms in the greatest peace-time shock for a hundred years or more. Why should Italy continue to give up the sovereign tools of self-defence if the EU will not act? "

    Seems that the Dutch are the sole obstructors to an EU wide rescue package, against the wishes of, among others, Germany? Funny, we were constantly told small(er) countries were powerless in the face of the Germanic juggernaut.
  • Options
    ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    edited April 2020

    TGOHF666 said:

    Germans seem more optimistic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-boris-johnson-updates-uk-cases-deaths/

    11:49am
    Progress on groundbreaking German antibody test
    This just in from Justin Huggler, our man in Berlin:

    A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

    "This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

    Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

    This suggests those who have survived an infection have immunity to the virus, the scientists said.

    "The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 percent we need for herd immunity," Prof Gunther Hartmann, another member of the study, said. "With 60 to 70 percent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk."

    Am I missing something here? 15% is a long way from 60%.
    Obviously not a maths professor. Isn’t there another glaring hole in the plan? Looking at the most affected area doesn’t tell you much about the whole country, wouldn’t they need numbers from less affected areas and points in between to come to any conclusion?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    TGOHF666 said:

    Germans seem more optimistic

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-latest-boris-johnson-updates-uk-cases-deaths/

    11:49am
    Progress on groundbreaking German antibody test
    This just in from Justin Huggler, our man in Berlin:

    A groundbreaking study in Germany has found that far more people may have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought, suggesting the real death rate is as low as 0.37 per cent and that 15 per cent of people may already have immunity.

    "This means a gradual relaxation of the lockdown is now possible," Prof Hendrik Streeck, the leader of the study said.

    Prof Streeck and his team are testing over 400 households in Gangelt, the town at the centre of Germany's most serious outbreak, for antibodies to the virus.

    This suggests those who have survived an infection have immunity to the virus, the scientists said.

    "The 15 percent is not that far from the 60 percent we need for herd immunity," Prof Gunther Hartmann, another member of the study, said. "With 60 to 70 percent herd immunity, the virus will completely disappear from the population. Then the elderly are no longer at risk."

    Am I missing something here? 15% is a long way from 60%.
    It's a week of exponential growth.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    Welcome to Cape Disappointment, South Georgia.....
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,427

    Mr. Glenn, how would that theoretical situation come about?

    Let us assume the EU would happily play ball. It requires a PM and a Commons who wants us to stay in as we were.

    We have neither. We have no prospect of having either within the next few years, during the course of which the de jure departure will become de facto.

    For years pro-EU MPs had a majority. They couldn't even get anything done then. How they expect to do so with a minority is beyond me.

    There is also the issue that the EU doesn't want a half hearted rejoin. As they see it, that would just start the whole mess again.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    TGOHF666 said:

    No chance the Uk is rejoining - if anything the EU will do well not to lose other members.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/08/raw-emotion-unpayable-debt-have-brought-eus-simmering-north/

    "“It’s a disgrace for the Eurogroup and for Europe,” exploded France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire. “While we are counting thousands of deaths, the finance ministers play with words and adjectives. We’re going to be judged severely by the markets and by our own populations.”"

    "Italy’s premier says Europe will lose its “raison d’etre” if it fails to come through with anything beyond loans on insulting Dutch terms in the greatest peace-time shock for a hundred years or more. Why should Italy continue to give up the sovereign tools of self-defence if the EU will not act? "

    Seems that the Dutch are the sole obstructors to an EU wide rescue package, against the wishes of, among others, Germany? Funny, we were constantly told small(er) countries were powerless in the face of the Germanic juggernaut.
    Some things still require unanimity, most others require QMV.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,427

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    Welcome to Cape Disappointment, South Georgia.....
    I very much want to go there - In summer....
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    Welcome to Cape Disappointment, South Georgia.....
    I very much want to go there - In summer....
    No cases on S Georgia.
  • Options

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    Welcome to Cape Disappointment, South Georgia.....
    A majestic part of the world and visited by us on our Antarctica cruise 5 years ago
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    Welcome to Cape Disappointment, South Georgia.....
    I very much want to go there - In summer....
    That was summer....
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited April 2020

    TGOHF666 said:

    No chance the Uk is rejoining - if anything the EU will do well not to lose other members.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/04/08/raw-emotion-unpayable-debt-have-brought-eus-simmering-north/

    "“It’s a disgrace for the Eurogroup and for Europe,” exploded France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire. “While we are counting thousands of deaths, the finance ministers play with words and adjectives. We’re going to be judged severely by the markets and by our own populations.”"

    "Italy’s premier says Europe will lose its “raison d’etre” if it fails to come through with anything beyond loans on insulting Dutch terms in the greatest peace-time shock for a hundred years or more. Why should Italy continue to give up the sovereign tools of self-defence if the EU will not act? "

    Seems that the Dutch are the sole obstructors to an EU wide rescue package, against the wishes of, among others, Germany? Funny, we were constantly told small(er) countries were powerless in the face of the Germanic juggernaut.
    The Dutch finance minister has caused a huge amount of ill feeling in Spain, Portugal and Italy with his remarks a week or so ago. I'm not sure it is only the Dutch who oppose the wishes of the Mediterranean bloc. They are meeting again today - there really needs to be an agreement urgently.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52211650
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,994
    Latest data



  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Shackleton's grave:

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226

    We have already left so it is not about remaining but the deal or even no deal outcome that is relevant. We are not re-joining

    That's right. But the Deal could be to extend the Transition indefinitely together with a temporary restoration of voting rights. The latter would be a democratic imperative if we were talking about a prolonged period - especially given the pan European economic and monetary measures that will probably be needed post pandemic. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Brexit is dead or anything ridiculous. Just that it's on pause for the foreseeable future. We can have a think about leaving again in due course. No doubt we will.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    Welcome to Cape Disappointment, South Georgia.....
    I very much want to go there - In summer....
    No cases on S Georgia.
    Any EasyJet flights? Jet 2? Penguin?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,427

    Andy_JS said:

    "Gang life 'has stopped' because of COVID-19

    Sheldon Thomas, who founded the Gangsline Foundation Trust, said county lines and "cuckooing" activity have also decreased."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-gang-rivalries-put-on-hold-and-violence-stops-due-to-lockdown-11970591

    A whole way of life being destroyed...... Without government support, how will gangs survive? Protection rackets will have collapsed with the shutting of the shops. Drug imports have probably collapsed as well. No one is going out, so street robbery is probably failing sector. Burglary won't work - except as violent home invasions, which the average British Legally Challenged Person (LCP*) is untrained and ill equipped for.

    The Legally Challenged sector is looking for help and support from the Government, I'm sure.

    *Criminal is a very pejorative word.
    Move the whole of the Legally Challenged Sector to Gruinard Island. There the person eventually voted Leader will receive £10m. To make it more like what they've left, caches of knives, guns, crossbows, machetes, drugs, booze and the keys to a speedboat will be hidden around the island.

    Food? Not so much... You'll really want that speedboat. But here's the kicker - if you leave before the vote, you lose any rights to that £10m... We could televise it - as Hate Island.
    No no.

    Gruinard Island is too small. Move them to South Georgia - breath taking landscape. World Heritage grade wildlife refuge. Great opportunities to learn new skills* and explore an open environment.

    And in seas around, a constant patrol of haddock. Very, very large haddock.

    *Such as how to stand up in 90 mile an hour snow storm when it is -40c
    Welcome to Cape Disappointment, South Georgia.....
    I very much want to go there - In summer....
    That was summer....
    It does look a bit bright and warm.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    kinabalu said:

    We have already left so it is not about remaining but the deal or even no deal outcome that is relevant. We are not re-joining

    That's right. But the Deal could be to extend the Transition indefinitely together with a temporary restoration of voting rights. The latter would be a democratic imperative if we were talking about a prolonged period - especially given the pan European economic and monetary measures that will probably be needed post pandemic. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Brexit is dead or anything ridiculous. Just that it's on pause for the foreseeable future. We can have a think about leaving again in due course. No doubt we will.
    An indefinite extension? A year or so is probably sufficient.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,407

    Shackleton's grave:

    Shackleton was a jolly brave chap but what is the poppy wreath all about?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Why did the BCG vaccination program end in the UK? I thought everyone had the scar.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4655355.stm
    But experts now believe the jab is pointless for most children, who are at very low risk of the disease anyway.

    Thankfully they never grow up. :smiley:
    The vaccine isn't for life.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Why did the BCG vaccination program end in the UK? I thought everyone had the scar.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4655355.stm
    But experts now believe the jab is pointless for most children, who are at very low risk of the disease anyway.

    Thankfully they never grow up. :smiley:
    The vaccine isn't for life.
    So I went through all that for nothing?!
This discussion has been closed.