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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the daily death rate edges closer to 1,000 YouGov finds strong support for a unity government to deal with the crisis
63% of Brits support a national unity government for the duration of the #covid19 crisis – including a majority (54%) of Conservative voters https://t.co/rSTOdNTVxP https://t.co/5iT8aOkAai
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Though I guess voters don't think strategically like us on here...
I think that's basically what we're getting now.
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation
The Brexit saga was a classic instance, with all manner of dramatic developments discussed - and predicted - from crash outs to referendums, vetoes and GONUs. In the event, we proceeded with a relatively normal outcome of leaving with the expected transition period, simply a little later than expected. Similarly in the US, where despite all the dramatic scenarios we’ve ran around the houses, we’re probably looking at the most ‘normal’ contest of Trump v Biden, and sadly the incumbent may well be re-elected as is the typical first term outcome.
It goes with the punters’ mentality, which is always looking for the long shot possibility that comes good.
The lesson is that things generally turn out to be more “normal” than most pundits, speculators and pundits suggest. Which has betting implications, as has been pointed out on this site before.
Normalcy bias is a myth, put about as cover for some of PB’s more egregious exaggeration.
You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.
On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
And it would be more interesting if they had had the foresight to ask under Corbyn and ask again now.
I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
Still not going to happen unless current government decides it needs it he political cover.
It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)
But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.
For others,*cough* without actually mentioning names, they probably see this as presenting a possible opportunity to bring down a democratically elected government over the course of just a few months, as opposed to the five full 5 year Parliamentary term for which it was elected.
Some are already working constructively together. Hancock welcomed Ashworths reappointment for example, and a bit of individual cooperation in specific areas and attendance at briefings/meetings is perhaps all that is needed.
Some reasons why this won’t happen:
The government has a majority of 80 and can conduct government business.
The Queen will not force the issue or intervene (see Brexit Saga).
This has not happened in any other country dealing with this crisis, to my knowledge.
What does it achieve? At the moment Labour are asking pretty sensible questions and the government are being scrutinised without appearing to be in crisis (despite the best efforts of the papers to portray it as being that way).
The government is not split (as far as we are aware) on strategy. One key reason the National Government was formed was because the government could not transact policy, and the seriousness of the times called for a government that could.
A war is a fight for national survival. It is much easier to argue for a GONU in such an instance. I’m not suggesting that this isn’t serious, but the fate of the country itself was at stake in, say, WWII.
I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
I can however sadly foresee a lot of PTSD and other stress-related problems among health workers.
Researchers in Shanghai hope to determine whether some recovered coronavirus patients
have a higher risk of reinfection after finding surprisingly low levels of Covid-19 antibodies in a number of people discharged from hospital.
A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies.
In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.
“Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org, an online platform for preprint papers.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
Wasn't there a paper the other day saying it could be 6-7?
That gives more like 85% as herd figure.
As more sensible PB-ers advocated yesterday as others told us not to worry our pretty little heads about the democratic process.
One more day to survive before the 4 day weekend. Rumours that even Admirals of the Yellow like myself are needed for the guns next week...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52224203
Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.
I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.
They would want gender neutral names for the temporary hospitals.
Self isolation didn't begin with the lockdown.
I can see no case for a GNU. (And the question is really framed in terms of if there was a GNU magically created overnight, would you take up cudgels agin it. The reading of this being something people are pushing for is wholly false.
But a thread on it here was inevitable.... You'd think the LibDem cheerleaders might have learned their lesson about being a (very) junior partner in government, even one of "unity".)
Is that one led by Unity Rees-Mogg?
As a full time carer I know what spending vast amounts of time stuck at home is like, and I am lucky enough to have a garden and a huge book collection.
On Tuesday, staff [at the Passport Office] were told by a Home Office scientific adviser 80% of people would get Covid-19 in the end and "we can't hide away from it forever".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52219930
Perhaps a disturbing insight into official thinking - or lack of it.
Regardless of what people think of the BBC for many it’s more trusted than any other resource and I think the Tories really will be playing with fire especially as the over 65s which is their strongest voter base might not take kindly to seeing the BBC sent to a subscription model which will in effect finish it .
24hrs to save the NHS might be replaced with 24 hrs to save the BBC by Labour .
Today the key question the government needs to answer is what is the exit strategy. The government can’t answer it, because we don’t have an exit strategy. But the media must keep pressing the question.
"Yes"
"Yes"
"Yes"
There's your review.
Maybe try using it humourously in South Korea. See how well it goes down there.
Rural hospitals (particularly in states where they refused to accept federal money to expand medicaid) are going to have to close. Absolutely bonkers.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/02/coronavirus-pandemic-jobs-us-health-care-workers-furloughed-laid-off/5102320002/
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/18/21142650/rural-hospitals-closing-medicaid-expansion-states
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-derbyshire-52224325
Talk about being in the wrong side of history.
that happens here - hopefully next week.
Sorry, but the media have had a terrible time. I have a little sympathy for them - they have programme time and 90% of the newspaper to fill each day with Corona porn and the easiest way to do it is with U-turns, incompetence and splits.
Unfortunately, this isn't normal politics. When you have expert medics and scientists fielding the questions, their ignorance is being exposed.
I've seen the odd glimmer of hope. One or two of the female journalists seem to have mugged up on some of the basics. The men haven't bothered so much. I suppose the arrogance that comes with an arts degree stops them. This science thing is only messing around with test tubes anyway, it can't be that difficult.
Come on, lads, don't let the side down. If the girls can do it, you can too. Even Kay Burley has reached 11-plus standard. But they still can't stop themselves asking "Have you stopped beating your wives?" questions and ignoring any answers.
But as long as you stop burning down those 5G masts, it'll be a start.
No, wait ...
Somehow when their own lives are at risk, they aren’t so nonchalant about the risks being run. Funny that.
Conversely I remember making the point that if an urgent decision was needed on anything Raab and the cabinet could do it, and what do you know it turns out they can when others were saying the alternative arrangements could not possibly work.
So I'm not sure what point you think you've made. You didn't need to worry about the democratic process as this decision shows it's working fine. The point about a review being delayed or not is separate and unless relaxation is imminent the point was it didnt matter if it was deferred a little, but again those saying Raab and co could make the call if needed were absolutely right and those flapping in a panic about non existent constitutional concerns were wrong.
But I am against the cancel culture - and liking it just for your opponents it what feeds it.
I think her losing her political job was right, and inevitable as Starmer wants to take back control (Ha!) of the Labour party.
But to lose her actual job at a time like this? I can understand the position of a legal practise - they have the PR aspect of this to consider. But still...
It's working and we need to stick with it.
I do wonder though whether the cabinet would have dared to go the other way with Boris currently in hospital. There must be a strong bias in the group not to make a big decision in his absence.
Isn't this thing just going to pick up again in case numbers?
On the other hand, they might be dumb. Or attracted to the significant warmth of a 125 mercury vapour bulb on a cool night.
One of the annoying things about the lockdown is the inability to nip over to Dartmoor and try and get a better, sharper picture of an Emperor Moth than that I have managed to date. They should be flying low over the heather in good numbers today - conditions are perfect. Hard to convince myself it is an "essential journey" though....even less, to convince Plod! "But look, officer, the wings on this image aren't sharp...It's doing my head in!"
Hell, an ex poster of this parish allegedly did this to another "comrade" on another forum.
But if they live by the sword its fitting they should die by it too.
The media tried to make a constitutional crisis out of nothing but that is par for the course for them
The grown up position is simply COBRA are the arbiters in all of this and of course they include all the experts plus the devolved nations first ministers and London mayor. They will make the recommendations, the cabinet will rubber stamp it, and Raab will implement it
It is all so clear and simple, but of course the media do not like an easy understood process and make themselves look ever so foolish by obscuring something that is easy to understand
Simples.........
there's two ways out of this - both really obvious.
That some people are so freaked out that they are willing to suspend parliamentary process, scrutiny, and accountability is disappointing if understandable.