I am intrigued. We are seeing the sort of level of deaths as Italy, Spain and France, but no real reports of hospitals crashing under the weight of cases. We have had a couple of hospitals have alerts, but nothing like in Northern Italy or Madrid, where hospitals were literally sinking under the shear volume of people, beds everywhere, people on floors, etc.
I can understand figures jumping on a Monday due to weekend processing causing a spot of lag, but our numbers seem a bit jumpy, going down a bit, then up.
Was Tuesday not the worst day of the last two weeks too ?
I am intrigued. We are seeing the sort of level of deaths as Italy, Spain and France, but no real reports of hospitals crashing under the weight of cases. We have had a couple of hospitals have alerts, but nothing like in Northern Italy or Madrid, where hospitals were literally sinking under the shear volume of people, beds everywhere, people on floors, etc.
We've had a bit more time to prepare than Italy and Spain did.
If we have 850 deaths today, and we are still 7-10 days from the peak, then we are very probably going to exceed that 20,000 deaths figure (for wave 1)
30,000? 40,000!
Maybe. 20000 I had thought was the optimistic scenario.
I am intrigued. We are seeing the sort of level of deaths as Italy, Spain and France, but no real reports of hospitals crashing under the weight of cases. We have had a couple of hospitals have alerts, but nothing like in Northern Italy or Madrid, where hospitals were literally sinking under the shear volume of people, beds everywhere, people on floors, etc.
Spread out more Geographically perhaps?
The NHS has cleared hospitals of all but the most serious non-related Covid-19 cases and because of that has massively increased the availability of beds.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Stats for the lockdown: Air traffic in the UK is down 92% on the same day in 2019, while rail travel is down 95%, according to the latest government figures. The transport minister Chris Heaton-Harris - updating the Commons transport select committee on the effects of the coronavirus, in a meeting held remotely – said road volumes were also down 71% for last year overall, and by 83% on the strategic road network, or major roads.
Bus passenger numbers are now down 88%, with services down 54% compared to 2019.
In London, Tube journeys are down by 94%, while bus journeys are 80% down on last year. Cross-Channel Eurostar journeys are now just 1% of last year’s numbers.
I can understand figures jumping on a Monday due to weekend processing causing a spot of lag, but our numbers seem a bit jumpy, going down a bit, then up.
Was Tuesday not the worst day of the last two weeks too ?
Figure's are published to 9am for new cases, and 5pm the previous day for deaths. So yesterday's fatality figure was 5pm Saturday to 5pm Sunday
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
(Edit: I see now the projection assumes the UK has a total of 799 ICU beds - might be why the death projection is so high.)
There's no sign at the moment that UK deaths will be that high.
The problem is that many people take quite a long time to die. The 6,000+ deaths we have so far represent only a fraction of the deaths we can expect from people infected in the same period. Given that we may be only halfway through the wave, I'm afraid 66k doesn't sound outrageously high to me.
I can understand figures jumping on a Monday due to weekend processing causing a spot of lag, but our numbers seem a bit jumpy, going down a bit, then up.
Was Tuesday not the worst day of the last two weeks too ?
Figure's are published to 9am for new cases, and 5pm the previous day for deaths. So yesterday's fatality figure was 5pm Saturday to 5pm Sunday
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
(Edit: I see now the projection assumes the UK has a total of 799 ICU beds - might be why the death projection is so high.)
There's no sign at the moment that UK deaths will be that high.
The problem is that many people take quite a long time to die. The 6,000+ deaths we have so far represent only a fraction of the deaths we can expect from people infected in the same period. Gievn that we may be only halfway through the wave, I'm afraid 66k doesn't sound outrageously high to me.
Not sure it is just the UK figure that is raising suspicions on their model, it is that Italy, Spain and France are already getting towards their predicted totals and no sign they are anywhere near finished with their outbreak. And as you say, add in the often long time to death.
It looks a lot like that Imperial report that had UK deaths peaking at ~250, and a day later we exceeded that amount.
I can understand figures jumping on a Monday due to weekend processing causing a spot of lag, but our numbers seem a bit jumpy, going down a bit, then up.
Was Tuesday not the worst day of the last two weeks too ?
No, but it was the largest rise in numbers, from 180 to 381 (strange how small those numbers look now, just one week ago). Wednesday saw the second largest rise and then slower ones to the end of the week. 439 to over 856 (plus Wales and NI) shows a similar doubling for this week.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Churchill had seen more combat in more wars than many of those in the military high command.
I am intrigued. We are seeing the sort of level of deaths as Italy, Spain and France, but no real reports of hospitals crashing under the weight of cases. We have had a couple of hospitals have alerts, but nothing like in Northern Italy or Madrid, where hospitals were literally sinking under the shear volume of people, beds everywhere, people on floors, etc.
We've had a bit more time to prepare than Italy and Spain did.
Saw a hint of a story yesterday that at one time we had excellent pandemic plans, and stores, but one of Cameron's governments scrapped them.
Cannot by any means vouch for the truth of this. If any pb-er knows I'm sure we'd all be interested.
I am intrigued. We are seeing the sort of level of deaths as Italy, Spain and France, but no real reports of hospitals crashing under the weight of cases. We have had a couple of hospitals have alerts, but nothing like in Northern Italy or Madrid, where hospitals were literally sinking under the shear volume of people, beds everywhere, people on floors, etc.
We've had a bit more time to prepare than Italy and Spain did.
Saw a hint of a story yesterday that at one time we had excellent pandemic plans, and stores, but one of Cameron's governments scrapped them.
Cannot by any means vouch for the truth of this. If any pb-er knows I'm sure we'd all be interested.
I am intrigued. We are seeing the sort of level of deaths as Italy, Spain and France, but no real reports of hospitals crashing under the weight of cases. We have had a couple of hospitals have alerts, but nothing like in Northern Italy or Madrid, where hospitals were literally sinking under the shear volume of people, beds everywhere, people on floors, etc.
Spread out more Geographically perhaps?
Two weeks to prepare and double icu capacity by shutting most other treatments down are the main reasons I would think.
Hospital only? Past week nursing homes included too?
Let's face it, its very difficult to have any confidence in these numbers after the revisions today.
The use of the figures is not that they represent the exact number of those who have died from this disease*, but that they are a self-consistent measure over time.
*That number will come in part from the ONS figures, but will, ultimately be argued for years to come. See the discussions on how you count a death where there are multiple illnesses present.
I am intrigued. We are seeing the sort of level of deaths as Italy, Spain and France, but no real reports of hospitals crashing under the weight of cases. We have had a couple of hospitals have alerts, but nothing like in Northern Italy or Madrid, where hospitals were literally sinking under the shear volume of people, beds everywhere, people on floors, etc.
We've had a bit more time to prepare than Italy and Spain did.
Saw a hint of a story yesterday that at one time we had excellent pandemic plans, and stores, but one of Cameron's governments scrapped them.
Cannot by any means vouch for the truth of this. If any pb-er knows I'm sure we'd all be interested.
Well it seems the UK did have significant stores of PPE, despite the largest UK owned producer having all their stock and production taken by the Chinese.
The issue with shortages seem to be more about logistics of getting such vast qualities delivered to the right places, as when a hospital starts to get a wave of CV patients they go through the stuff at incredible rate....also even one tiny mistake, like going in to see a patient and then forgetting to do something before coming out again, means you have to get a new set of PPE.
Nothing to do with your post, but did you get that delivery sorted?
No not with Morrisons . As I said they re reimbursed my card and said they would send a £20 voucher. However did not offer another slot to re send it. They said they had 5 complains from York of no delivery and they would follow up the next day to see what had occurred. Not heard anything since. Terrible service. Also said the driver had imputed that he had delivered to our address, which was completely false.
I have a delivery due this evening from Asda, so hoping for a better outcome.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
They're predicting today's number will be 1200 and it'll keep getting worse from here, so does indeed feel a little off.
It’s not a crank website tho. University of Washington.
It predicts the UK will have by far the worst plague outcome in the western world (per capita)
We have to hope they are not just wrong, but wildly wrong. That’s grim
They are basing it on the UK having fewer than 800 ICU beds. Odd.
Actually, if you look at the notes, the assumption relates to excess capacity over normal usage (so the UK has many more than 800 intensive care beds, but on average only has 800 available because coronavirus is still far from the only reason someone might need an ICU bed).
I agree that this is a non-peer reviewed paper, steps have been taken substantially to increase ICU beds, and self-isolation should reduce other demands (e.g. people needing ICU beds due to car accidents). But it isn't obvious that the paper's author has got the assumption wildly wrong because, to be fair, his paper does explain what it means further.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
(Edit: I see now the projection assumes the UK has a total of 799 ICU beds - might be why the death projection is so high.)
There's no sign at the moment that UK deaths will be that high.
The problem is that many people take quite a long time to die. The 6,000+ deaths we have so far represent only a fraction of the deaths we can expect from people infected in the same period. Gievn that we may be only halfway through the wave, I'm afraid 66k doesn't sound outrageously high to me.
Not sure it is just the UK figure that is raising suspicions on their model, it is that Italy, Spain and France are already getting towards their predicted totals and no sign they are anywhere near finished with their outbreak. And as you say, add in the often long time to death.
Yes - it looks too optimistic for all the European countries, possibly excepting Germany. Also, I'm not sure why the expected death rate per head for the USA would be lower than that for the UK.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Churchill was commissioned in the 4th Hussars. He saw action on the North West Frontier, in Sudan, and in South Africa (where he was taken prisoner). In 1916-17 he was Colonel of the Royal Scots Fusiliers* and was with them in the trenches (as, contrary to popular belief, were most officers below the rank of divisional commander).
He was also heavily involved in the Sidney Street Siege of 1911, where his orders led to two alleged criminals being burned alive.
He saw plenty of action.
*Fun fact - his adjutant was Major Archibald Sinclair, who subsequently became a Liberal MP, leader of the Liberals, a staunch opponent of Appeasement and finally Churchill’s Secretary of State for Air. Liberals disparagingly commented that Sinclair ‘still seemed to stand to attention when Winston addressed him.’
Nothing to do with your post, but did you get that delivery sorted?
No not with Morrisons . As I said they re reimbursed my card and said they would send a £20 voucher. However did not offer another slot to re send it. They said they had 5 complains from York of no delivery and they would follow up the next day to see what had occurred. Not heard anything since. Terrible service.
I have a delivery due this evening from Asda, so hoping for a better outcome.
That sucks. FWIW, you have my sympathy. Good luck with Asda, hope they prove better.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
(Edit: I see now the projection assumes the UK has a total of 799 ICU beds - might be why the death projection is so high.)
There's no sign at the moment that UK deaths will be that high.
The problem is that many people take quite a long time to die. The 6,000+ deaths we have so far represent only a fraction of the deaths we can expect from people infected in the same period. Given that we may be only halfway through the wave, I'm afraid 66k doesn't sound outrageously high to me.
Yes you are sadly right.
We already have 6000 dead. We are at least a week from the peak. The number of new deaths is still increasing.
On our current trajectory we could easily hit 40,000 dead, which is not outrageously distant from, 66,000
Where that analysis is wrong, it seems to me, is in presuming France, Italy and Spain will keep their deaths to 15-20k or so, unlike us. I see little evidence for that.
The problem with that study is that they assume numbers of hospital beds and ICU beds which are an order of magnitude lower than the actual numbers. And that is before the Nightingale Hospital efforts are taken into account.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
(Edit: I see now the projection assumes the UK has a total of 799 ICU beds - might be why the death projection is so high.)
There's no sign at the moment that UK deaths will be that high.
The problem is that many people take quite a long time to die. The 6,000+ deaths we have so far represent only a fraction of the deaths we can expect from people infected in the same period. Gievn that we may be only halfway through the wave, I'm afraid 66k doesn't sound outrageously high to me.
Not sure it is just the UK figure that is raising suspicions on their model, it is that Italy, Spain and France are already getting towards their predicted totals and no sign they are anywhere near finished with their outbreak. And as you say, add in the often long time to death.
Yes - it looks too optimistic for all the European countries, possibly excepting Germany. Also, I'm not sure why the expected death rate per head for the USA would be lower than that for the UK.
If as early trends seem to indicate that in addition to high risk factors like heart disease, diabetes, etc, just being an overweight middle aged man is really bad, the US are going to be in even shitter position all round.
Churchill had seen more combat in more wars than many of those in the military high command.
But not in the one (WW2) he was helming. When Boris emerges intact from St Thomas it will be akin to Churchill, having been captured by the Gestapo and brutally interrogated for days but saying nothing, somehow escaping and getting back home to pick up where he left off. Which never happened. He was always cowering away in a basement or in the Houses of Parliament.
As repeated this morning on the various media outlets, the focus on ventilator numbers is increasingly becoming a bit of a red herring.
Every country is finding that people who have CV related issue like pneumonia don't react anywhere nearly the same as similar respiratory issues when they go on a ventilator. They just don't improve at the kind of rates as would usually be expected.
We heard this anecdotally initially from Northern Italy, and it seems to be true everywhere.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Churchill was commissioned in the 4th Hussars. He saw action on the North West Frontier, in Sudan, and in South Africa (where he was taken prisoner). In 1916-17 he was Colonel of the Royal Scots Fusiliers and was with them in the trenches (as, contrary to popular belief, were most officers below the rank of divisional commander).
He was also heavily involved in the Sidney Street Siege of 1911, where his orders led to two alleged criminals being burned alive.
He saw plenty of action.
I would add that at Sidney Street he ordered the fire brigade back, because the individuals in the house were shooting at anyone in the house who approached. Churchill valued the lives of the fireman as higher than the gunmen.
It is interesting to recall the occasion, much more recently, refused to allow ambulance staff to enter a small village where a spree shooter was active. On the ground that no risk assessment had been made.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Churchill was commissioned in the 4th Hussars. He saw action on the North West Frontier, in Sudan, and in South Africa (where he was taken prisoner). In 1916-17 he was Colonel of the Royal Scots Fusiliers* and was with them in the trenches (as, contrary to popular belief, were most officers below the rank of divisional commander).
He was also heavily involved in the Sidney Street Siege of 1911, where his orders led to two alleged criminals being burned alive....
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Churchill was commissioned in the 4th Hussars. He saw action on the North West Frontier, in Sudan, and in South Africa (where he was taken prisoner). In 1916-17 he was Colonel of the Royal Scots Fusiliers* and was with them in the trenches (as, contrary to popular belief, were most officers below the rank of divisional commander).
He was also heavily involved in the Sidney Street Siege of 1911, where his orders led to two alleged criminals being burned alive....
The bit I like about that photo is that you can tell who has actually seen action. The soldier to the left is taking cover - behind a glass display window. Churchill is peering out from behind a multi-brick thick wall.
Churchill had seen more combat in more wars than many of those in the military high command.
But not in the one (WW2) he was helming. When Boris emerges intact from St Thomas it will be akin to Churchill, having been captured by the Gestapo and brutally interrogated for days but saying nothing, somehow escaping and getting back home to pick up where he left off. Which never happened. He was always cowering away in a basement or in the Houses of Parliament.
You are trolling and being exceptionally silly. It took a personal plea from the King to stop him sailing with the D day fleet.
Nothing to do with your post, but did you get that delivery sorted?
No not with Morrisons . As I said they re reimbursed my card and said they would send a £20 voucher. However did not offer another slot to re send it. They said they had 5 complains from York of no delivery and they would follow up the next day to see what had occurred. Not heard anything since. Terrible service. Also said the driver had imputed that he had delivered to our address, which was completely false.
I have a delivery due this evening from Asda, so hoping for a better outcome.
In my area (North Notts) Morrisons also seem to be struggling - normally they are excellent.
I had a delivery not fulfilled *after* I had received the "on its way" email, then a few hours later "we could not fulfil your order so it has been cancelled". That was a delivery set up before it was all locked down.
So I have switched to Plan B, which is local "Tesco Metro" and "Local Coop" stores which are both within 6-7 minutes walk when necessary.
We need to avoid over-interpreting one days worth of data. 1. There is always an uptick in cases after the weekend. 2. The cases in Scotland accumulate data from three days.
If we assume 200 cases were carried over from the weekend (and correcting for the Scottish numbers) that would give ~600-700 fatalities over the past three days. But we really need to see what happens over a longer period to work out what's going on.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
That behaviour really isn't limited to one wing of politics. See Sturgeon's reaction, for example.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Tbf to the old racist, imperialist white supremacist, Churchill was gagging to see action in yer actual WWII. I believe he had to be virtually physically restrained from being in the vicinity of the D Day landings.
We need to avoid over-interpreting one days worth of data. 1. There is always an uptick in cases after the weekend. 2. The cases in Scotland accumulate data from three days.
If we assume 200 cases were carried over from the weekend (and correcting for the Scottish numbers) that would give ~600-700 fatalities over the past three days. But we really need to see what happens over a longer period to work out what's going on.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Tbf to the old racist, imperialist white supremacist, Churchill was gagging to see action in yer actual WWII. I believe he had to be virtually physically restrained from being in the vicinity of the D Day landings.
As I recall he was only stopped when the king said he would go with him?
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
I would suggest that losing an election is a very different category to actual injury to a person.
Indeed, it is a major point of democracy that we can defeat our enemies in such a moral and civilised fashion.
While perhaps celebrating the defeat too much is excessive, it has long been a part of our political life. Consider some of the things written in the immediate aftermath of 1945, for example.
Nothing to do with your post, but did you get that delivery sorted?
No not with Morrisons . As I said they re reimbursed my card and said they would send a £20 voucher. However did not offer another slot to re send it. They said they had 5 complains from York of no delivery and they would follow up the next day to see what had occurred. Not heard anything since. Terrible service.
I have a delivery due this evening from Asda, so hoping for a better outcome.
That sucks. FWIW, you have my sympathy. Good luck with Asda, hope they prove better.
Thank you I know it's only a minor inconvenience. However trying to keep to the governments sheilding guidance.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Tbf to the old racist, imperialist white supremacist, Churchill was gagging to see action in yer actual WWII. I believe he had to be virtually physically restrained from being in the vicinity of the D Day landings.
As I recall he was only stopped when Eisenhower said he would go with him?
Churchill had seen more combat in more wars than many of those in the military high command.
But not in the one (WW2) he was helming. When Boris emerges intact from St Thomas it will be akin to Churchill, having been captured by the Gestapo and brutally interrogated for days but saying nothing, somehow escaping and getting back home to pick up where he left off. Which never happened. He was always cowering away in a basement or in the Houses of Parliament.
What absolute crap. The main criticism of Churchill in WWII was that he took too many personal risks, especially dangerous flights.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
(Edit: I see now the projection assumes the UK has a total of 799 ICU beds - might be why the death projection is so high.)
There's no sign at the moment that UK deaths will be that high.
The problem is that many people take quite a long time to die. The 6,000+ deaths we have so far represent only a fraction of the deaths we can expect from people infected in the same period. Gievn that we may be only halfway through the wave, I'm afraid 66k doesn't sound outrageously high to me.
Not sure it is just the UK figure that is raising suspicions on their model, it is that Italy, Spain and France are already getting towards their predicted totals and no sign they are anywhere near finished with their outbreak. And as you say, add in the often long time to death.
Yes - it looks too optimistic for all the European countries, possibly excepting Germany. Also, I'm not sure why the expected death rate per head for the USA would be lower than that for the UK.
Also, that model claims that France has peaked, and predicts 650 deaths for the country today. In reality France just recorded 833 deaths (very similar to us), their highest total so far. And the French health minister has just said the peak is still ahead, for them.
The UK predictions are grisly.
At the peak, the model predicts nearly 3000 UK deaths a day
On the very worst night of the Blitz, around 1400 people died
Nevertheless we are still on target for having fewer people die in total (during the first wave, at least) than your own calculation had Brits dying on a single day.
No 10 should probably knock it on the head. Mass clapping looks like North Korea, isolated outbreaks of clapping is just embarrassing.
It's a terrible idea. And as @malcolmg pointed out PT the very last thing the guy needs at this point is any sort of clap.
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Churchill was commissioned in the 4th Hussars. He saw action on the North West Frontier, in Sudan, and in South Africa (where he was taken prisoner). In 1916-17 he was Colonel of the Royal Scots Fusiliers* and was with them in the trenches (as, contrary to popular belief, were most officers below the rank of divisional commander).
He was also heavily involved in the Sidney Street Siege of 1911, where his orders led to two alleged criminals being burned alive....
Well hopefully you are right - but there is certainly the need now for a stand in until he does.
That is Raab and there is no dispute there. He is acting PM until Boris* is well enough to go back to work. But all bets are off if Boris* dies (which he won't but let's assume). Then we need a new PM - trip to palace etc - and I would expect the cabinet to decide and choose Gove.
* To stress again that I am calling him this rather than Johnson only until he's better.
US Acting Navy Secretary talking to the sailors of the USS Roosevelt:
President Trump’s acting Navy secretary, in a profanity-laced reprimand delivered Monday, criticized sailors aboard the stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for cheering their captain, who was removed after he appealed for help as coronavirus spread throughout the warship.
The Navy’s top civilian, Thomas B. Modly, delivered his message over the ship’s loudspeaker system and deepened the raw us-versus-them atmosphere that had already engulfed the carrier. It also exposed the schism between a commander in chief with little regard for the military’s chain of command and the uniformed Navy that is sworn to follow him.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
That behaviour really isn't limited to one wing of politics. See Sturgeon's reaction, for example.
Absolutely.
I wasn't making a political biased point. It is just what happened and that I called out at the time. I would have done the same if the boot was on the other foot as it will be. It is the individuals (whether right left or centre) not the parties.
US Acting Navy Secretary talking to the sailors of the USS Roosevelt:
President Trump’s acting Navy secretary, in a profanity-laced reprimand delivered Monday, criticized sailors aboard the stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for cheering their captain, who was removed after he appealed for help as coronavirus spread throughout the warship.
The Navy’s top civilian, Thomas B. Modly, delivered his message over the ship’s loudspeaker system and deepened the raw us-versus-them atmosphere that had already engulfed the carrier. It also exposed the schism between a commander in chief with little regard for the military’s chain of command and the uniformed Navy that is sworn to follow him.
Churchill had seen more combat in more wars than many of those in the military high command.
But not in the one (WW2) he was helming. When Boris emerges intact from St Thomas it will be akin to Churchill, having been captured by the Gestapo and brutally interrogated for days but saying nothing, somehow escaping and getting back home to pick up where he left off. Which never happened. He was always cowering away in a basement or in the Houses of Parliament.
I'm sorry, this is nonsense.
Firstly, it's grossly unfair to Churchill, who did have a military career.
Secondly, whilst there is widespread goodwill towards Johnson as he goes through this, it would not be at all akin to escaping from the Gestapo were he to recover, and people would quite quickly move on. He is unlucky to have reached a stage where he goes into ICU, and we all genuinely hope his luck now changes (as it does for most but by no means all in ICU). But he's not the only person to have suffered personal trials and tribulations in Downing Street - Brown lost a child as Chancellor and Cameron as PM for example.
Personal sympathy probably doesn't translate, long term, to votes. When the immediate shock and wave of sympathy passes, this is unlikely to sway votes (though may help humanise Johnson - which is probably a good thing for everyone as politics pre-coronavirus was getting way too personally nasty).
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
That behaviour really isn't limited to one wing of politics. See Sturgeon's reaction, for example.
Absolutely.
I wasn't making a political biased point. It is just what happened and that I called out at the time. I would have done the same if the boot was on the other foot as it will be. It is the individuals (whether right left or centre) not the parties.
Agree re Sturgeon. It was unpleasant.
I couldn't disagree more. Sturgeon was entirely appropriate to celebrate winning a seat, let alone winning such a high profile scalp.
Suggesting it is inappropriate to celebrate gaining a seat because an opposition has lost it is as utterly facetious as claiming it is inappropriate for a striker to celebrate scoring a goal because an opposition has conceded it.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
They're predicting today's number will be 1200 and it'll keep getting worse from here, so does indeed feel a little off.
It’s not a crank website tho. University of Washington.
It predicts the UK will have by far the worst plague outcome in the western world (per capita)
We have to hope they are not just wrong, but wildly wrong. That’s grim
It is wrong.
It predicted 1,258 deaths yesterday, actual 441. It predicted 1,233 deaths today, actual 856.
It had the actual data for the preceding days - 623, 709, 685, 569, 564 etc - but for some reason assumed deaths would immediately double and then keep increasing.
Churchill had seen more combat in more wars than many of those in the military high command.
But not in the one (WW2) he was helming. When Boris emerges intact from St Thomas it will be akin to Churchill, having been captured by the Gestapo and brutally interrogated for days but saying nothing, somehow escaping and getting back home to pick up where he left off. Which never happened. He was always cowering away in a basement or in the Houses of Parliament.
What absolute crap. The main criticism of Churchill in WWII was that he took too many personal risks, especially dangerous flights.
In fact, rather famously, he used to send his aides to the shelters and watch the Blitz from a roof top.
On vaccine promises: I would sound a small note of caution - until animal and human trials have been completed these are potential vaccines, nothing more.
Back when SARS was thought to be a potentially grave threat, several companies started working on vaccines. One of them had a vaccine that showed great promise & had got as far as small animal trials I believe, where the vaccine showed a strong immune response. Great! The trouble was, on re-infection with the SARS virus the poor creatures’ immune systems all went beserk and the animals died.
Creating a vaccine that works & doesn’t kill you is not a trivial thing: You do not skip on your animal or very small scale human testing, because if it goes wrong the consequences could be mass death on a scale far worse than the Coronavirus itself.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
They're predicting today's number will be 1200 and it'll keep getting worse from here, so does indeed feel a little off.
It’s not a crank website tho. University of Washington.
It predicts the UK will have by far the worst plague outcome in the western world (per capita)
We have to hope they are not just wrong, but wildly wrong. That’s grim
It is wrong.
It predicted 1,258 deaths yesterday, actual 441. It predicted 1,233 deaths today, actual 856.
It had the actual data for the preceding days - 623, 709, 685, 569, 564 etc - but for some reason assumed deaths would immediately double and then keep increasing.
In a way, that is probably better than if they retro-fitted their model to real outcome.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
(Edit: I see now the projection assumes the UK has a total of 799 ICU beds - might be why the death projection is so high.)
There's no sign at the moment that UK deaths will be that high.
The problem is that many people take quite a long time to die. The 6,000+ deaths we have so far represent only a fraction of the deaths we can expect from people infected in the same period. Gievn that we may be only halfway through the wave, I'm afraid 66k doesn't sound outrageously high to me.
Not sure it is just the UK figure that is raising suspicions on their model, it is that Italy, Spain and France are already getting towards their predicted totals and no sign they are anywhere near finished with their outbreak. And as you say, add in the often long time to death.
Yes - it looks too optimistic for all the European countries, possibly excepting Germany. Also, I'm not sure why the expected death rate per head for the USA would be lower than that for the UK.
Also, that model claims that France has peaked, and predicts 650 deaths for the country today. In reality France just recorded 833 deaths (very similar to us), their highest total so far. And the French health minister has just said the peak is still ahead, for them.
The UK predictions are grisly.
At the peak, the model predicts nearly 3000 UK deaths a day
On the very worst night of the Blitz, around 1400 people died
It's very hard to model total death tolls right now, because there are still so many sick in hospital, and so many of them have underlying health conditions.
We are still going to see deaths from people infected in March late in the Autumn, albeit we hope at a very low level.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
I would suggest that losing an election is a very different category to actual injury to a person.
Indeed, it is a major point of democracy that we can defeat our enemies in such a moral and civilised fashion.
While perhaps celebrating the defeat too much is excessive, it has long been a part of our political life. Consider some of the things written in the immediate aftermath of 1945, for example.
I agree re the order of magnitude; it is not the same.
I'm afraid you have me at a disadvantage re 1945.
I think there is a difference between enjoying your win over your opponent and enjoying the loss by an individual. With few exceptions I have felt sorry for the opponent who loses. The only exception being when I have felt they are an unpleasant person. I don't think I will feel sorry for him if Trump loses.
Churchill had seen more combat in more wars than many of those in the military high command.
But not in the one (WW2) he was helming. When Boris emerges intact from St Thomas it will be akin to Churchill, having been captured by the Gestapo and brutally interrogated for days but saying nothing, somehow escaping and getting back home to pick up where he left off. Which never happened. He was always cowering away in a basement or in the Houses of Parliament.
I'm sorry, this is nonsense.
Firstly, it's grossly unfair to Churchill, who did have a military career.
Secondly, whilst there is widespread goodwill towards Johnson as he goes through this, it would not be at all akin to escaping from the Gestapo were he to recover, and people would quite quickly move on. He is unlucky to have reached a stage where he goes into ICU, and we all genuinely hope his luck now changes (as it does for most but by no means all in ICU). But he's not the only person to have suffered personal trials and tribulations in Downing Street - Brown lost a child as Chancellor and Cameron as PM for example.
Personal sympathy probably doesn't translate, long term, to votes. When the immediate shock and wave of sympathy passes, this is unlikely to sway votes (though may help humanise Johnson - which is probably a good thing for everyone as politics pre-coronavirus was getting way too personally nasty).
I thought Cameron was LOTO when Ivan died? (Not of course that that would have made it easier.)
The reason I say that is because I particularly remember Gordon Brown gave a very moving reply to Hague’s announcement that Ivan had died, clearly feeling it very deeply, and then contacted the Camerons privately to commiserate. And I thought that was an exceptionally genuine, human and touching moment that showed how he did have a decency and humanity to him, and that also showed why people were so loyal to him despite his otherwise pretty undistinguished career as PM.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
They're predicting today's number will be 1200 and it'll keep getting worse from here, so does indeed feel a little off.
It’s not a crank website tho. University of Washington.
It predicts the UK will have by far the worst plague outcome in the western world (per capita)
We have to hope they are not just wrong, but wildly wrong. That’s grim
It is wrong.
It predicted 1,258 deaths yesterday, actual 441. It predicted 1,233 deaths today, actual 856.
It had the actual data for the preceding days - 623, 709, 685, 569, 564 etc - but for some reason assumed deaths would immediately double and then keep increasing.
In a way, that is probably better than if they retro-fitted their model to real outcome.
I think there is a bit of panicking on the basis of one days worth of figures. If we look at other countries, we are going to have another 5-6 days of 600-1000 fatalities per day before things start to decline. But a 60,000 death scenario is clearly ridiculous - the 20,000 upper bound that Neil Ferguson mentioned last week still seems entirely reasonable (his range was 7,000-20,000).
US Acting Navy Secretary talking to the sailors of the USS Roosevelt:
President Trump’s acting Navy secretary, in a profanity-laced reprimand delivered Monday, criticized sailors aboard the stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for cheering their captain, who was removed after he appealed for help as coronavirus spread throughout the warship.
The Navy’s top civilian, Thomas B. Modly, delivered his message over the ship’s loudspeaker system and deepened the raw us-versus-them atmosphere that had already engulfed the carrier. It also exposed the schism between a commander in chief with little regard for the military’s chain of command and the uniformed Navy that is sworn to follow him.
What absolute crap. The main criticism of Churchill in WWII was that he took too many personal risks, especially dangerous flights.
But as PM he never fought the enemy up close and personal as Boris is fighting this one.
Come on. By 1940 he was 65 and physically less than fit. Sending him to fight would have been the silliest kind of tokenism. That’s what energetic young men like my grandfather were for.
Even sending him to a field command post would have been silly given how mobile they had to be.
And finally, the place for an overall leader is not at the battlefront - it’s where they can see what’s happening and co-ordinate things.
And all that said, he made several trips to visit troops abroad, inducing to North Africa. He did the V for Victory - they all gave the Agincourt V back. Apparently everyone including him was laughing so much they were struggling to stand up.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
I would suggest that losing an election is a very different category to actual injury to a person.
Indeed, it is a major point of democracy that we can defeat our enemies in such a moral and civilised fashion.
While perhaps celebrating the defeat too much is excessive, it has long been a part of our political life. Consider some of the things written in the immediate aftermath of 1945, for example.
I agree re the order of magnitude; it is not the same.
I'm afraid you have me at a disadvantage re 1945.
I think there is a difference between enjoying your win over your opponent and enjoying the loss by an individual. With few exceptions I have felt sorry for the opponent who loses. The only exception being when I have felt they are an unpleasant person. I don't think I will feel sorry for him if Trump loses.
Personally, I do not celebrate such individual triumphs, but I find it hard to condemn those who do.
The ones who wish ill on others... the back of my hand to them.
Churchill had seen more combat in more wars than many of those in the military high command.
But not in the one (WW2) he was helming. When Boris emerges intact from St Thomas it will be akin to Churchill, having been captured by the Gestapo and brutally interrogated for days but saying nothing, somehow escaping and getting back home to pick up where he left off. Which never happened. He was always cowering away in a basement or in the Houses of Parliament.
I'm sorry, this is nonsense.
Firstly, it's grossly unfair to Churchill, who did have a military career.
Secondly, whilst there is widespread goodwill towards Johnson as he goes through this, it would not be at all akin to escaping from the Gestapo were he to recover, and people would quite quickly move on. He is unlucky to have reached a stage where he goes into ICU, and we all genuinely hope his luck now changes (as it does for most but by no means all in ICU). But he's not the only person to have suffered personal trials and tribulations in Downing Street - Brown lost a child as Chancellor and Cameron as PM for example.
Personal sympathy probably doesn't translate, long term, to votes. When the immediate shock and wave of sympathy passes, this is unlikely to sway votes (though may help humanise Johnson - which is probably a good thing for everyone as politics pre-coronavirus was getting way too personally nasty).
I thought Cameron was LOTO when Ivan died? (Not of course that that would have made it easier.)
The reason I say that is because I particularly remember Gordon Brown gave a very moving reply to Hague’s announcement that Ivan had died, clearly feeling it very deeply, and then contacted the Camerons privately to commiserate. And I thought that was an exceptionally genuine, human and touching moment that showed how he did have a decency and humanity to him, and that also showed why people were so loyal to him despite his otherwise pretty undistinguished career as PM.
Yes you are correct Cameron was Loto. Blair I recall had a heart procedure whilst PM.
US Acting Navy Secretary talking to the sailors of the USS Roosevelt:
President Trump’s acting Navy secretary, in a profanity-laced reprimand delivered Monday, criticized sailors aboard the stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for cheering their captain, who was removed after he appealed for help as coronavirus spread throughout the warship.
The Navy’s top civilian, Thomas B. Modly, delivered his message over the ship’s loudspeaker system and deepened the raw us-versus-them atmosphere that had already engulfed the carrier. It also exposed the schism between a commander in chief with little regard for the military’s chain of command and the uniformed Navy that is sworn to follow him.
Mild but intermittent fever. Usual mild 'wet' cough. No loss of smell or taste. No sore throat. Slight tightening across the chest. Body aches and tiredness.
Not the 'classic' symptoms but it would be annoying to get a strange illness which wasn't even it.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
That behaviour really isn't limited to one wing of politics. See Sturgeon's reaction, for example.
Absolutely.
I wasn't making a political biased point. It is just what happened and that I called out at the time. I would have done the same if the boot was on the other foot as it will be. It is the individuals (whether right left or centre) not the parties.
Agree re Sturgeon. It was unpleasant.
I couldn't disagree more. Sturgeon was entirely appropriate to celebrate winning a seat, let alone winning such a high profile scalp.
Suggesting it is inappropriate to celebrate gaining a seat because an opposition has lost it is as utterly facetious as claiming it is inappropriate for a striker to celebrate scoring a goal because an opposition has conceded it.
Philip that is not what I said (probably need to look at my earlier post). She should celebrate gaining a seat and in fairness to Sturgeon she was possibly caught off guard and it isn't obvious what she is celebrating. It didn't look good though.
Re the football. Of course you celebrate scoring the goal. I said that, but after your victory you shake hands with your opponent and commiserate with them.
You don't go up to them and and rub it in do you. At least a civilised person doesn't. That is all I am saying.
Enjoy and celebrate your vistory. Don't enjoy your opponents defeat.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
I would suggest that losing an election is a very different category to actual injury to a person.
Indeed, it is a major point of democracy that we can defeat our enemies in such a moral and civilised fashion.
While perhaps celebrating the defeat too much is excessive, it has long been a part of our political life. Consider some of the things written in the immediate aftermath of 1945, for example.
I agree re the order of magnitude; it is not the same.
I'm afraid you have me at a disadvantage re 1945.
I think there is a difference between enjoying your win over your opponent and enjoying the loss by an individual. With few exceptions I have felt sorry for the opponent who loses. The only exception being when I have felt they are an unpleasant person. I don't think I will feel sorry for him if Trump loses.
I felt pleased when Ed Balls lost his seat. For years he had given the impression of a highly partisan thug*. Then he went and gave a sincere and magnanimous concession speech and it was hard to take any pleasure in his losing any more. Though it was a pleasure I was happy to forego in return for finding him so much more likeable. I was still pleased that Morley and Outwood went Tory, but only because it seemed so damned improbable**.
If only some of these politicians could display this thoughtful, nuanced and human side a bit more while they were politicians.
*Clearly the standards of 'highly partisan thug' were very different in those days. ** Again, the standards of electoral improbability have shifted somewhat.
What absolute crap. The main criticism of Churchill in WWII was that he took too many personal risks, especially dangerous flights.
But as PM he never fought the enemy up close and personal as Boris is fighting this one.
Yes, well WWII wasn't really one of those mediaeval battles where the Dark Knight and the White Knight sort it out between them.
Though allegedly, Patton wished that he and Rommel could fight it out personally in a tank duel.
We shouldn’t read any significance into that. Patton just wanted to fight everyone. Usually it was the enemy. If he ran out of his enemies he fought his allies.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
That behaviour really isn't limited to one wing of politics. See Sturgeon's reaction, for example.
Absolutely.
I wasn't making a political biased point. It is just what happened and that I called out at the time. I would have done the same if the boot was on the other foot as it will be. It is the individuals (whether right left or centre) not the parties.
Agree re Sturgeon. It was unpleasant.
I couldn't disagree more. Sturgeon was entirely appropriate to celebrate winning a seat, let alone winning such a high profile scalp.
Suggesting it is inappropriate to celebrate gaining a seat because an opposition has lost it is as utterly facetious as claiming it is inappropriate for a striker to celebrate scoring a goal because an opposition has conceded it.
As a Lib Dem, I broadly endorse this message.
It was possibly not wise of Sturgeon to be on camera with that reaction - it maybe came across to some as a bit undignified in a First Minister, and alienated a few potential voters - but it's unlikely to have done real harm and, as you say, "politician celebrates win non-shocker". Certainly, the Lib Dems would be unwise to expect others to be upset about it - most people probably just found it amusing.
On strikers celebrating goals, I also broadly agree. It possibly erred on the side of celebrating in front of the opposition's fans, but it's hard to get worked up about that unless you're an opposition die-hard. On the subject, I rather dislike footballers making a point about muting their celebrations when scoring against former clubs. They aren't your club any more, and it's fine to be happy about scoring.
Mild but intermittent fever. Usual mild 'wet' cough. No loss of smell or taste. No sore throat. Slight tightening across the chest. Body aches and tiredness.
Not the 'classic' symptoms but it would be annoying to get a strange illness which wasn't even it.
Sorry to hear. Hope it clears up soon. No way of knowing if it is the plague or not really.
What absolute crap. The main criticism of Churchill in WWII was that he took too many personal risks, especially dangerous flights.
But as PM he never fought the enemy up close and personal as Boris is fighting this one.
Yes, well WWII wasn't really one of those mediaeval battles where the Dark Knight and the White Knight sort it out between them.
Much as Churchill would have liked it to be. Of course the moral inconvenience of needing the brutish Red Knight to do much of the fighting complicated matters somewhat.
On vaccine promises: I would sound a small note of caution - until animal and human trials have been completed these are potential vaccines, nothing more.
Back when SARS was thought to be a potentially grave threat, several companies started working on vaccines. One of them had a vaccine that showed great promise & had got as far as small animal trials I believe, where the vaccine showed a strong immune response. Great! The trouble was, on re-infection with the SARS virus the poor creatures’ immune systems all went beserk and the animals died.
Creating a vaccine that works & doesn’t kill you is not a trivial thing: You do not skip on your animal or very small scale human testing, because if it goes wrong the consequences could be mass death on a scale far worse than the Coronavirus itself.
Though current vaccine development is of course informed by the SARS experience, as you say, ADE can't be discounted.
The great shame is that much of the SARS work was defunded very soon after the outbreak was snuffed out; for a relatively small expenditure, we could have been far better prepared.
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
I don’t like Johnson. Or Cummings. Or Corbyn. Or Drakeford. Or Raab. Or Patel.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
I agree. I raised a similar point during the election when a minority of our more right wing posters were expressing excessive joy and pleasure if, as happened, some of their opponents lost. It wasn't the pleasure of winning (which of course one should enjoy) but it was the expressed pleasure of an opponent losing. Of course you celebrate your victory, but have sympathy for those that lose.
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
I would suggest that losing an election is a very different category to actual injury to a person.
Indeed, it is a major point of democracy that we can defeat our enemies in such a moral and civilised fashion.
While perhaps celebrating the defeat too much is excessive, it has long been a part of our political life. Consider some of the things written in the immediate aftermath of 1945, for example.
I agree re the order of magnitude; it is not the same.
I'm afraid you have me at a disadvantage re 1945.
I think there is a difference between enjoying your win over your opponent and enjoying the loss by an individual. With few exceptions I have felt sorry for the opponent who loses. The only exception being when I have felt they are an unpleasant person. I don't think I will feel sorry for him if Trump loses.
I felt pleased when Ed Balls lost his seat. For years he had given the impression of a highly partisan thug*. Then he went and gave a sincere and magnanimous concession speech and it was hard to take any pleasure in his losing any more. Though it was a pleasure I was happy to forego in return for finding him so much more likeable. I was still pleased that Morley and Outwood went Tory, but only because it seemed so damned improbable**.
If only some of these politicians could display this thoughtful, nuanced and human side a bit more while they were politicians.
*Clearly the standards of 'highly partisan thug' were very different in those days. ** Again, the standards of electoral improbability have shifted somewhat.
Not only have I liked that post, but I want to also say I liked it. Very human.
Mild but intermittent fever. Usual mild 'wet' cough. No loss of smell or taste. No sore throat. Slight tightening across the chest. Body aches and tiredness.
Not the 'classic' symptoms but it would be annoying to get a strange illness which wasn't even it.
Sorry to hear. Hope it clears up soon. No way of knowing if it is the plague or not really.
Cheers.
Its easy to forget 'normal' illnesses still abound.
But I'll certainly be asking for one of the antibody tests when they become available.
Tbf to the old racist, imperialist white supremacist, Churchill was gagging to see action in yer actual WWII. I believe he had to be virtually physically restrained from being in the vicinity of the D Day landings.
Ah OK, fair enough. I thought he'd left all that behind after turning 40 like most of us do. Guess he was one of a kind. So I take back the "cowering in a basement" comment. Unfair. Plenty of basement, yes, but no cowering. Prowling, more like. But still, what Boris is doing right now seems to me to be in a different league. It's visceral.
Forecasting a first-wave total of 81k deaths for USA, 19k for Spain, 20k for Italy, 15k for France, 9k for Germany and, wait for it....
66k for the UK (!)
UK deaths to be triple those in Spain or Italy anyone?
(Edit: I see now the projection assumes the UK has a total of 799 ICU beds - might be why the death projection is so high.)
There's no sign at the moment that UK deaths will be that high.
The problem is that many people take quite a long time to die. The 6,000+ deaths we have so far represent only a fraction of the deaths we can expect from people infected in the same period. Gievn that we may be only halfway through the wave, I'm afraid 66k doesn't sound outrageously high to me.
Not sure it is just the UK figure that is raising suspicions on their model, it is that Italy, Spain and France are already getting towards their predicted totals and no sign they are anywhere near finished with their outbreak. And as you say, add in the often long time to death.
Yes - it looks too optimistic for all the European countries, possibly excepting Germany. Also, I'm not sure why the expected death rate per head for the USA would be lower than that for the UK.
Also, that model claims that France has peaked, and predicts 650 deaths for the country today. In reality France just recorded 833 deaths (very similar to us), their highest total so far. And the French health minister has just said the peak is still ahead, for them.
The UK predictions are grisly.
At the peak, the model predicts nearly 3000 UK deaths a day
On the very worst night of the Blitz, around 1400 people died
It's very hard to model total death tolls right now, because there are still so many sick in hospital, and so many of them have underlying health conditions.
We are still going to see deaths from people infected in March late in the Autumn, albeit we hope at a very low level.
Indeed. Also there’s the hospice, care home and dying at home category. Who are being missed or undercounted. And then there’s the whole grey area of who-would-have-died-anyway. And genuine excess deaths.
Even the numbers of hospital admissions and ICU cases are confusing, because so many people who would normally have gone to hospital are staying away, for various reasons.
It will be many months if not years before we can step back and say: THAT’S how bad it was.
So far, UK deaths year to date look unremarkable, low, even. Likely this will change as we pass through the peak period. Nevertheless the predictions you posted here of millions of British deaths look even more absurd now than they did at the time.
Nothing to do with your post, but did you get that delivery sorted?
No not with Morrisons . As I said they re reimbursed my card and said they would send a £20 voucher. However did not offer another slot to re send it. They said they had 5 complains from York of no delivery and they would follow up the next day to see what had occurred. Not heard anything since. Terrible service. Also said the driver had imputed that he had delivered to our address, which was completely false.
I have a delivery due this evening from Asda, so hoping for a better outcome.
In my area (North Notts) Morrisons also seem to be struggling - normally they are excellent.
I had a delivery not fulfilled *after* I had received the "on its way" email, then a few hours later "we could not fulfil your order so it has been cancelled". That was a delivery set up before it was all locked down.
So I have switched to Plan B, which is local "Tesco Metro" and "Local Coop" stores which are both within 6-7 minutes walk when necessary.
My daughter had used Morrisons online previously with no problems. As you say they may be struggling.
US Acting Navy Secretary talking to the sailors of the USS Roosevelt:
President Trump’s acting Navy secretary, in a profanity-laced reprimand delivered Monday, criticized sailors aboard the stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for cheering their captain, who was removed after he appealed for help as coronavirus spread throughout the warship.
The Navy’s top civilian, Thomas B. Modly, delivered his message over the ship’s loudspeaker system and deepened the raw us-versus-them atmosphere that had already engulfed the carrier. It also exposed the schism between a commander in chief with little regard for the military’s chain of command and the uniformed Navy that is sworn to follow him.
Comments
Nothing to do with your post, but did you get that delivery sorted?
"Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites light up skies over the UK
Thousands more satellites are expected to be launched into orbit in the next few years"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/04/01/elon-musks-starlink-satellites-light-skies-uk/
councillor Sheila Oakes, who is currently mayor of Heanor in Derbyshire, saying: 'Sorry he completely deserves this and he is one of the worst PM's we've ever had.'
Haters got to hate eh
Strikes me that when he recovers - which he will - his popularity will rocket. The "War Leader" who has seen action in the actual War he is leading us in. Not even Churchill could say that. Churchill was all talk.
Air traffic in the UK is down 92% on the same day in 2019, while rail travel is down 95%, according to the latest government figures. The transport minister Chris Heaton-Harris - updating the Commons transport select committee on the effects of the coronavirus, in a meeting held remotely – said road volumes were also down 71% for last year overall, and by 83% on the strategic road network, or major roads.
Bus passenger numbers are now down 88%, with services down 54% compared to 2019.
In London, Tube journeys are down by 94%, while bus journeys are 80% down on last year. Cross-Channel Eurostar journeys are now just 1% of last year’s numbers.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-patient-deaths-rise-by-758-in-england-11969899
Artificially high because of the way Scotland reports.
But I don’t wish death on them. One of them is seriously ill. I hope he recovers. Similarly, although he’s been silent for some time, I hope Cummings is making progress towards a full recovery.
Maybe I would for real, utter, unredeemable scumbags like Xi, or Kim, or Mugabe.
But none of them are even remotely in that class. None of them are out trying to cause deaths, or seize power illegally, or enrich themselves at the expense of the British people.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is frankly not worth listening to.
It looks a lot like that Imperial report that had UK deaths peaking at ~250, and a day later we exceeded that amount.
Cannot by any means vouch for the truth of this. If any pb-er knows I'm sure we'd all be interested.
*That number will come in part from the ONS figures, but will, ultimately be argued for years to come. See the discussions on how you count a death where there are multiple illnesses present.
The issue with shortages seem to be more about logistics of getting such vast qualities delivered to the right places, as when a hospital starts to get a wave of CV patients they go through the stuff at incredible rate....also even one tiny mistake, like going in to see a patient and then forgetting to do something before coming out again, means you have to get a new set of PPE.
Yes
As I said they re reimbursed my card and said they would send a £20 voucher.
However did not offer another slot to re send it.
They said they had 5 complains from York of no delivery and they would follow up the next day to see what had occurred.
Not heard anything since.
Terrible service.
Also said the driver had imputed that he had delivered to our address, which was completely false.
I have a delivery due this evening from Asda, so hoping for a better outcome.
I agree that this is a non-peer reviewed paper, steps have been taken substantially to increase ICU beds, and self-isolation should reduce other demands (e.g. people needing ICU beds due to car accidents). But it isn't obvious that the paper's author has got the assumption wildly wrong because, to be fair, his paper does explain what it means further.
He was also heavily involved in the Sidney Street Siege of 1911, where his orders led to two alleged criminals being burned alive.
He saw plenty of action.
*Fun fact - his adjutant was Major Archibald Sinclair, who subsequently became a Liberal MP, leader of the Liberals, a staunch opponent of Appeasement and finally Churchill’s Secretary of State for Air. Liberals disparagingly commented that Sinclair ‘still seemed to stand to attention when Winston addressed him.’
Every country is finding that people who have CV related issue like pneumonia don't react anywhere nearly the same as similar respiratory issues when they go on a ventilator. They just don't improve at the kind of rates as would usually be expected.
We heard this anecdotally initially from Northern Italy, and it seems to be true everywhere.
It is interesting to recall the occasion, much more recently, refused to allow ambulance staff to enter a small village where a spree shooter was active. On the ground that no risk assessment had been made.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sidney_Street#/media/File:Winston_Churchill_at_the_Siege_of_Sidney_Street,_3_January_1911.jpeg
I remember when Stephen Twigg won I was very pleased for him and simultaneously sorry for Michael Portillo, yet I supported neither.
Similarly in a sporting contest you enjoy your victory but feel for your opponent.
The only exception for me is, as you said a serious corrupt politician or a cheat in a sporting event.
"We will have done well if the death toll can be kept below 20,000".
I had a delivery not fulfilled *after* I had received the "on its way" email, then a few hours later "we could not fulfil your order so it has been cancelled". That was a delivery set up before it was all locked down.
So I have switched to Plan B, which is local "Tesco Metro" and "Local Coop" stores which are both within 6-7 minutes walk when necessary.
If we assume 200 cases were carried over from the weekend (and correcting for the Scottish numbers) that would give ~600-700 fatalities over the past three days. But we really need to see what happens over a longer period to work out what's going on.
Not sure I can manage that to be honest.
Indeed, it is a major point of democracy that we can defeat our enemies in such a moral and civilised fashion.
While perhaps celebrating the defeat too much is excessive, it has long been a part of our political life. Consider some of the things written in the immediate aftermath of 1945, for example.
However trying to keep to the governments sheilding guidance.
* To stress again that I am calling him this rather than Johnson only until he's better.
President Trump’s acting Navy secretary, in a profanity-laced reprimand delivered Monday, criticized sailors aboard the stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for cheering their captain, who was removed after he appealed for help as coronavirus spread throughout the warship.
The Navy’s top civilian, Thomas B. Modly, delivered his message over the ship’s loudspeaker system and deepened the raw us-versus-them atmosphere that had already engulfed the carrier. It also exposed the schism between a commander in chief with little regard for the military’s chain of command and the uniformed Navy that is sworn to follow him.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/politics/coronavirus-navy-secretary-roosevelt-crozier.html
I wasn't making a political biased point. It is just what happened and that I called out at the time. I would have done the same if the boot was on the other foot as it will be. It is the individuals (whether right left or centre) not the parties.
Agree re Sturgeon. It was unpleasant.
Possibly a first for this administration.
Firstly, it's grossly unfair to Churchill, who did have a military career.
Secondly, whilst there is widespread goodwill towards Johnson as he goes through this, it would not be at all akin to escaping from the Gestapo were he to recover, and people would quite quickly move on. He is unlucky to have reached a stage where he goes into ICU, and we all genuinely hope his luck now changes (as it does for most but by no means all in ICU). But he's not the only person to have suffered personal trials and tribulations in Downing Street - Brown lost a child as Chancellor and Cameron as PM for example.
Personal sympathy probably doesn't translate, long term, to votes. When the immediate shock and wave of sympathy passes, this is unlikely to sway votes (though may help humanise Johnson - which is probably a good thing for everyone as politics pre-coronavirus was getting way too personally nasty).
Suggesting it is inappropriate to celebrate gaining a seat because an opposition has lost it is as utterly facetious as claiming it is inappropriate for a striker to celebrate scoring a goal because an opposition has conceded it.
It predicted 1,258 deaths yesterday, actual 441.
It predicted 1,233 deaths today, actual 856.
It had the actual data for the preceding days - 623, 709, 685, 569, 564 etc - but for some reason assumed deaths would immediately double and then keep increasing.
Back when SARS was thought to be a potentially grave threat, several companies started working on vaccines. One of them had a vaccine that showed great promise & had got as far as small animal trials I believe, where the vaccine showed a strong immune response. Great! The trouble was, on re-infection with the SARS virus the poor creatures’ immune systems all went beserk and the animals died.
Creating a vaccine that works & doesn’t kill you is not a trivial thing: You do not skip on your animal or very small scale human testing, because if it goes wrong the consequences could be mass death on a scale far worse than the Coronavirus itself.
We are still going to see deaths from people infected in March late in the Autumn, albeit we hope at a very low level.
I'm afraid you have me at a disadvantage re 1945.
I think there is a difference between enjoying your win over your opponent and enjoying the loss by an individual. With few exceptions I have felt sorry for the opponent who loses. The only exception being when I have felt they are an unpleasant person. I don't think I will feel sorry for him if Trump loses.
The reason I say that is because I particularly remember Gordon Brown gave a very moving reply to Hague’s announcement that Ivan had died, clearly feeling it very deeply, and then contacted the Camerons privately to commiserate. And I thought that was an exceptionally genuine, human and touching moment that showed how he did have a decency and humanity to him, and that also showed why people were so loyal to him despite his otherwise pretty undistinguished career as PM.
Even sending him to a field command post would have been silly given how mobile they had to be.
And finally, the place for an overall leader is not at the battlefront - it’s where they can see what’s happening and co-ordinate things.
And all that said, he made several trips to visit troops abroad, inducing to North Africa. He did the V for Victory - they all gave the Agincourt V back. Apparently everyone including him was laughing so much they were struggling to stand up.
The ones who wish ill on others... the back of my hand to them.
Blair I recall had a heart procedure whilst PM.
The Acting Secretary of the Navy was really upset that the crew of the Roosevelt cheered their former Captain as he left the ship.
So he flew all the way from Washington to Guam to deliver a lecture to the crew over the loudspeaker system, where he swore at them.
WTF? Why would you do that, rather than just let sleeping dogs lie?
Mild but intermittent fever.
Usual mild 'wet' cough.
No loss of smell or taste.
No sore throat.
Slight tightening across the chest.
Body aches and tiredness.
Not the 'classic' symptoms but it would be annoying to get a strange illness which wasn't even it.
Re the football. Of course you celebrate scoring the goal. I said that, but after your victory you shake hands with your opponent and commiserate with them.
You don't go up to them and and rub it in do you. At least a civilised person doesn't. That is all I am saying.
Enjoy and celebrate your vistory. Don't enjoy your opponents defeat.
I was still pleased that Morley and Outwood went Tory, but only because it seemed so damned improbable**.
If only some of these politicians could display this thoughtful, nuanced and human side a bit more while they were politicians.
*Clearly the standards of 'highly partisan thug' were very different in those days.
** Again, the standards of electoral improbability have shifted somewhat.
It was possibly not wise of Sturgeon to be on camera with that reaction - it maybe came across to some as a bit undignified in a First Minister, and alienated a few potential voters - but it's unlikely to have done real harm and, as you say, "politician celebrates win non-shocker". Certainly, the Lib Dems would be unwise to expect others to be upset about it - most people probably just found it amusing.
On strikers celebrating goals, I also broadly agree. It possibly erred on the side of celebrating in front of the opposition's fans, but it's hard to get worked up about that unless you're an opposition die-hard. On the subject, I rather dislike footballers making a point about muting their celebrations when scoring against former clubs. They aren't your club any more, and it's fine to be happy about scoring.
Of course the moral inconvenience of needing the brutish Red Knight to do much of the fighting complicated matters somewhat.
The great shame is that much of the SARS work was defunded very soon after the outbreak was snuffed out; for a relatively small expenditure, we could have been far better prepared.
Its easy to forget 'normal' illnesses still abound.
But I'll certainly be asking for one of the antibody tests when they become available.
As you say they may be struggling.
But chaos seems to be defining feature of the Trump administration.