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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ever since the first LAB leadership YouGov poll came out the result has never really been in doubt
Ever since that first YouGov labour leadership poll come out well we were still LST on a new year break there has never been any real question that the next leader of the Labour Party would be the former director public prosecutions sir Keir starmer. Op that first poll came as quite a shock it will be recalled, because the Assumption was that at the candidate favoured by the current leadership, Rebecca long Bailey, wood secure the votes that had add boot what they’re man to pass in the party in the 2015 and 2016 leadership elections.
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(Chinese lie)
Incidentally, I am not at all sure I agree with you that the Tories would suffer major losses in Wales. On the 600 notional boundaries Labour took an absolute pounding - eight down due largely to consolidation in the Valleys - but the Tories only lost two. The score would have been Lab 14, Tory 12, PC 2 and 2 toss-ups.
This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
This is a fearful illness
I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!
Interesting to see from the more detailed reports coming in, that the panic buying PANIC!!!!!!!!! was mostly people increasing their weekly shops moderately to stock up.
Once again, useless reporting.
It looks like basically people shopped as if it were Christmas, but the stores were obviously setup for usual March demand.
The hardest seat for the Cons to hold will be Ynys Mon, which likely has to have Bangor or some of the mainland added.
The disappointment is he didn't move to Phuket.
Her mother is in dementia care and she has only just lost her sister to breast cancer
Life is unbelievably difficult for so many
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/30/asia-pacific/south-korea-emergency-exercise-coronavirus-testing-containment/
SEOUL – A South Korean tabletop exercise on emergency responses to a fictional mysterious outbreak led directly to tools the country deployed less than a month later to manage the arrival and spread of the coronavirus, one of the experts involved said
According to an undisclosed government document, on Dec. 17 two dozen leading South Korean infectious diseases specialists tackled a worrying scenario: a South Korean family contracts pneumonia after a trip to China, where cases of an unidentified disease had arisen.
The hypothetical disease quickly spreads among the colleagues of the family members and medical workers who treated them. In response, the team of experts at the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) developed an algorithm to find the pathogen and its origin, as well as testing techniques.
Those measures were mobilized in real life when a first suspected coronavirus patient appeared in South Korea on Jan. 20, the document said.
"Looking back over the past 20 years, humans were most tormented by either influenza or coronaviruses, and we're relatively doing well on influenza but had been worried about the possibility of the outbreak of a novel coronavirus," said Lee Sang-won, one of the KCDC experts who led the drill....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/britains-coronavirus-death-toll-bigger-official-figures-show/
If we haven't tested these people, how do we know they didn't die of non-CV illnesses that often take the old e.g. regular flu?
We already had the reporting of a case where a young girl was reported in the media of dying of CV because all her family told the authorities of having the dreaded cough. She actually died of a heart attack and only when they tested her did they find out she didn't have it, so it wasn't even a "with CV".
Am I right in thinking no other country is doing this. Everybody else is only recording those being admitted to hospital and dying with it. Are we going to "gold plate" our numbers and looks massively worse than the rest of Europe?
Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
On March 6, Adam Burdick, the choir’s conductor, informed the 121 members in an email that amid the “stress and strain of concerns about the virus,” practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church.
“I’m planning on being there this Tuesday March 10, and hoping many of you will be, too,” he wrote.
Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.
“It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”
After 2½ hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.
Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.
The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.
“That’s all we can think of right now,” said Polly Dubbel, a county communicable disease and environmental health manager.
In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, eight people who were at the rehearsal said that nobody there was coughing or sneezing or appeared ill...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/30/have-found-missing-ingredient-coronavirus-vaccine/
Loving the theory that the BCG vaccine for TB given to everybody in the UK born up to about 1990 has a protective effect. Spain and italy didn't give it, Japan did.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/oil-prices-sink-17-year-low/
I thought that 5kg of Penne is going to be hard going.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/gm-ventilators-coronavirus-trump.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/nightingale-hospital-in-london-to-treat-less-critical-covid-19-cases
A big % since my circle is not wide.
No hospital time, thankfully.
Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
In Italy last year only 500 died of the flu having tested positive, the rest of the 8000 deaths were presumed. It seems reasonable to apply the same approach, and I expect all countries will do so in time.
As only inpatients are being tested at present, UK community deaths are certainly being ignored, but could be important markers as we shift back to a containment approach after the peak.
It's been reported today that people are screaming about the FDA's temporary approval of malaria drugs for testing against coronavirus - for no other reason that Trump mentioned it at a press conference, and they don't want to see him get the credit.
He'll be better off just securing position at Labour HQ behind the scenes and in building up a internal team and shadow cab before doing anything public oriented, especially in terms of policy etc.
In short it’s a media myth there was panic buying. The public smartly saw the way the wind was blowing, so did a few extra shops with a few extra items in it. And there was no greediness causing the shelves to bare to cry into a smart phone about, it was everyone taking just one item more or more regularly than normal, and not building a hoard at all.
Frankly the R4 program used one set of data and it was spun by the industry guy in a particular way, so I’m making a decision to chew but not swallow.
What has upset people is that the idea has got around that it works, and the drug (which is essential for, among others, some lupus patients) is being panic purchased.
To be fair, it's even worse in France, where they've already approved its use as a treatment, before any conclusive demonstration that it works.
https://twitter.com/paullewismoney/status/1244907848351522816?s=20
It's called 'a prison sentence.'
Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.
I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"
Mafia primed to feast on Italy's virus devastation
https://www.france24.com/en/20200329-mafia-primed-to-feast-on-italy-s-virus-devastation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/italys-true-death-rate-warning-britons-want-call-covid-19-lockdown/
To be honest, if people want to get out there and do jobs that need doing, good on them. I presume though that the 80% from job #1 and the second job will push most into top rate tax, which is less appealing.
There is now a reasonably good quality RCT from China out now:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1244870926686130176?s=09
Probability dictated that it was unlikely I fell under a bus, and probability is very much on your side during the Coronavirus scare.
Nonetheless, dark times, dark thoughts!
(From which the WHO does not emerge covered in glory... again.):
https://twitter.com/rkhamsi/status/1244659064350670848
Sky news hammering Boris and government over NHS PPE again as their top website story. BBC meanwhile aren’t even covering this story today.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-boris-johnson-under-pressure-over-lack-of-protective-gear-for-nhs-staff-11966025
Lack of PPE for front line NHS is a non story, in terms of political damage. Seeing this pressure group style pressing across the ‘press” and media this morning is nothing, absolutely no problem whatsoever for this government. Because quite simply the government have been very active trying to get PPE to the front line, that concern and activity gets them off the hook.
However, if virus starts getting into care homes where government has abandoned nurses and care ers(and so many Daily Mail readers loved ones) to absolutely no PPE, then this government will be lacerated by the media on an unprecedented scale.
I actually think it's been a bit of a failure and has winnowed the short list too far.
The likes of Thornberry and Philips should have had the chance to make their case to the membership I think.
I also have very little idea what the Deputy Leader does and so have very little opinion on who that should be.
But did do some kind of post graduate think at Oxford iirc.
It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
But Imperial said....Imperial said something different...
There is a reason why Miliband's rules anticipated the PLP winnowing out the rubbish. It's just been shown with painful clarity how right he was, and how wrong the decision to bypass it.
There needs to be a more agile system in the future.