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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Mr. Jonathan, hope everything works out ok for you and your family.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    Farage- not establishment? Titter ye not!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    eristdoof said:

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    It seems like many British businesses have cut out all of the slack exept for day-to-day variability. Good optimisation for normal times giving hight profits but vulnerable to sudden changes. The same can be said for the NHS.
    Supermarkets definitely have and run on very fine margins. I remember the bad snow last year, and my local Tesco could get the delivery through for 2-3 days. It took 2 weeks for that store to get back to normal as all the demand / supply was out of whack.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.

    By background, Thatcher was posher than Starmer.

  • FossFoss Posts: 1,010
    edited March 2020
    ONS starting it's commentary. The whole thread is worth a read.

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1244905924000731136
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    It was polling, not science, that got Trump to change track:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    How can you come up with any definition of 'non-establishment' that includes Farage but excludes John Major and William Hague? Serious question.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    Farage- not establishment? Titter ye not!
    One who went rogue and delivered Brexit.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.

    Long-Bailey's background is no different to Starmer's. He got further because he is smarter.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
    Please enlighten.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Foss said:

    ONS starting it's commentary. The whole thread is worth a read.

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1244905924000731136

    Hmm...Guardian says...

    The ONS has published the first of its new weekly bulletin which will include all instances where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate and will include non-hospital deaths.

    A total of 210 deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to and including March 20 (and which were registered up to March 25) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics.

    This compares with 170 coronavirus-related deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales up to and including March 20.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    One of the good things about the current situation is that it is a lot easier to talk to your GP. I had a non coronavirus issue that needed to be addressed and found myself having a telephone consultation less than two hours later. Before this came along you could wait weeks.

    It seems that patients are more reluctant to both the doc at the moment.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    Farage- not establishment? Titter ye not!

    Brown is quintessential Scottish establishment, I would guess.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released new data that suggests the coronavirus death toll could be higher than previously reported.

    A total of 210 deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to and including March 20 (and which were registered up to March 25) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate, according to new figures.

    This compares with 170 coronavirus-related deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales up to and including March 20.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
    Please enlighten.
    Further hint - in addition to being the only PM to date who was a solicitor, he was also the only one whose first language was not English.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    Farage- not establishment? Titter ye not!
    One who went rogue and delivered Brexit.
    I suspect we both have different interpretations of 'establishment' then.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    Farage- not establishment? Titter ye not!
    One who went rogue and delivered Brexit.

    Alongside a lot of other members of the establishment.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    edited March 2020
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
    Please enlighten.
    Further hint - in addition to being the only PM to date who was a solicitor, he was also the only one whose first language was not English.
    Did he know my Father?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2020

    One of the good things about the current situation is that it is a lot easier to talk to your GP. I had a non coronavirus issue that needed to be addressed and found myself having a telephone consultation less than two hours later. Before this came along you could wait weeks.

    It seems that patients are more reluctant to both the doc at the moment.

    Hopefully this will change GP services for the better.

    We really shouldn't have sick people all sitting together hacking their guts up in a waiting room and seems perfectly reasonable for quite a few things to use video calls.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.

    By background, Thatcher was posher than Starmer.

    Of course, but he has bought in to a set of values on the way which is why change isn't on the agenda.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    edited March 2020

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
    Please enlighten.
    Further hint - in addition to being the only PM to date who was a solicitor, he was also the only one whose first language was not English.
    Did he know my Father?
    Well, it's certainly ironic that he was a solicitor...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    How can you come up with any definition of 'non-establishment' that includes Farage but excludes John Major and William Hague? Serious question.
    Major maybe. Hague no - Oxford PPE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited March 2020
    The main question it seems will be whether Starmer wins on the first vote or not, not whether he wins at all.

    If Starmer does win it will be the first time the centrist candidate won a contested Labour leadership election since Blair in 1994
  • Organised religion might well win the 2020 Darwin Awards in a cramped field

    Israel is struggling to contain a concentration of coronavirus infections among ultra-Orthodox Jews, with the impact reaching Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who went into isolation after an adviser from the community tested positive.

    Mr. Netanyahu’s office said on Monday evening that his test for the virus, as well as those of his family and close staff, came out negative, though officials said he would remain in isolation as a precaution in keeping with ministry of health guidelines.

    While the ultraorthodox make up about 10% of Israel’s population, ultraorthodox patients account for 50% of those hospitalized with the coronavirus disease, Covid-19, according to an analysis by Israel’s Channel 12.

    Israel has 4,695 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus as of Monday, with 16 deaths. Jerusalem, with a large ultraorthodox population, and the ultraorthodox city of Bnei Brak, have the highest infection rates in Israel, the Ministry of Health said.

    Israeli officials attribute the high infection rates among the ultraorthodox to a failure to follow social distancing guidelines, including by holding large weddings and prayer gatherings. The Health Ministry last week listed synagogues as the locations with the highest rate of infections.


    Mr. Netanyhau, in a televised address on Monday night, slammed what he said were certain groups that flouted health regulations, and ordered law enforcement to crack down on such behavior.

    “The minority that it isn’t disciplined endangers itself and the majority,” he said.

    Some in the insular ultraorthodox community said members weren’t defying public orders, but rather learning belatedly how much of a threat the virus poses.

    Chaim Epstein, an ultraorthodox member of the Jerusalem City Council, said ultraorthodox rabbis, who shun most mainstream communication, weren’t listening to the radio or otherwise getting information about the dangers of the novel coronavirus. “They didn’t understand how bad the situation was,” he said.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-fights-coronavirus-spread-among-ultra-orthodox-jews-11585591046
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    I like the way the King of Thailand is coping with the situation. He has, apparently taken over a whole hotel in Garmisch-Partenkrichen and moved his staff and 20 concubines there.

    He's definitely the coming man in this crisis.

    The disappointment is he didn't move to Phuket.
    If he was in Thailand he'd be called upon for some ceremonial duties, which would detract him from his hobby.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    Farage- not establishment? Titter ye not!
    One who went rogue and delivered Brexit.

    Alongside a lot of other members of the establishment.

    a handful of fruitcakes if I can recall the description correctly.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"
    Pathetic. Starmer's first uni was Leeds and he only did a short post grad year in Oxford. To try to paint him as posh so what? He didn't decide which school he want to
    Nor did most people who went to private school but it doesn't stop lefties calling them posh. No point dishing it our if you cant take it.
    Of the five working majorities that LAB has ever achieved four of them were with public school educated leaders who went to Oxford.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2020
    Well that didn't take long...Daily Mail....THE REAL UK DEATH TOLL...Coronavirus deaths could be over 20% MORE than official figures.

    Twitter will be on the case again, accusing Boris of hiding the bodies.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    Farage- not establishment? Titter ye not!
    One who went rogue and delivered Brexit.
    I suspect we both have different interpretations of 'establishment' then.
    Probably
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    How can you come up with any definition of 'non-establishment' that includes Farage but excludes John Major and William Hague? Serious question.
    Major maybe. Hague no - Oxford PPE.
    Whereas Dulwich College and a career as a broker in the commodities market is not?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
    Please enlighten.
    Further hint - in addition to being the only PM to date who was a solicitor, he was also the only one whose first language was not English.
    Did he know my Father?
    Well, it's certainly ironic that he was a solicitor...
    Actually my Father didn't know him, but my Grandfather knew Lady Megan when she was MP for Carmarthen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,503
    I am not convinced by the bcg story, but it is notable that the programme of routine vaccination in the UK ran from 1953-2005 in 10-14 year olds. In theory most long resident Brits born between 1940 and 1990 should have had it.

    Several countries never used it, notably the Netherlands and USA.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,422

    Well that didn't take long...Daily Mail....Coronavirus deaths could be over 20% MORE than official figures.

    Twitter will be on the case again, accusing Boris of hiding the bodies.

    I'm getting a bit fed up with these predictions. They seem to change every day, and change direction all the time as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2020

    Organised religion might well win the 2020 Darwin Awards in a cramped field

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-fights-coronavirus-spread-among-ultra-orthodox-jews-11585591046

    I see they arrested the preacher in the Florida that gave sermons saying that we heal people by placing our hands on them....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    How can you come up with any definition of 'non-establishment' that includes Farage but excludes John Major and William Hague? Serious question.
    Major maybe. Hague no - Oxford PPE.
    Hage was half establishment, Oxford yes but comprehensive school rather than major public school
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    edited March 2020


    Major maybe. Hague no - Oxford PPE.Whereas Dulwich College and a career as a broker in the commodities market is not?

    as I said, he went rogue.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    Organised religion might well win the 2020 Darwin Awards in a cramped field

    Israel is struggling to contain a concentration of coronavirus infections among ultra-Orthodox Jews, with the impact reaching Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who went into isolation after an adviser from the community tested positive.

    Mr. Netanyahu’s office said on Monday evening that his test for the virus, as well as those of his family and close staff, came out negative, though officials said he would remain in isolation as a precaution in keeping with ministry of health guidelines.

    While the ultraorthodox make up about 10% of Israel’s population, ultraorthodox patients account for 50% of those hospitalized with the coronavirus disease, Covid-19, according to an analysis by Israel’s Channel 12.

    Israel has 4,695 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus as of Monday, with 16 deaths. Jerusalem, with a large ultraorthodox population, and the ultraorthodox city of Bnei Brak, have the highest infection rates in Israel, the Ministry of Health said.

    Israeli officials attribute the high infection rates among the ultraorthodox to a failure to follow social distancing guidelines, including by holding large weddings and prayer gatherings. The Health Ministry last week listed synagogues as the locations with the highest rate of infections.


    Mr. Netanyhau, in a televised address on Monday night, slammed what he said were certain groups that flouted health regulations, and ordered law enforcement to crack down on such behavior.

    “The minority that it isn’t disciplined endangers itself and the majority,” he said.

    Some in the insular ultraorthodox community said members weren’t defying public orders, but rather learning belatedly how much of a threat the virus poses.

    Chaim Epstein, an ultraorthodox member of the Jerusalem City Council, said ultraorthodox rabbis, who shun most mainstream communication, weren’t listening to the radio or otherwise getting information about the dangers of the novel coronavirus. “They didn’t understand how bad the situation was,” he said.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-fights-coronavirus-spread-among-ultra-orthodox-jews-11585591046

    It's a similar story among older Orthodox Jews in the UK, apparently.

  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    It's the burglars I feel for...
    I was thinking that. Years ago, my old boss had her house burgled by a professional burgler. A neighbour spotted them and the police arrived just in time. They remarked that they had been chasing him (the burgler) for a very long time and he was a well known professional in the area.

    No idea what he was put away for, probably six months.

    But you're right. These few professional burglers aren't having a good time of it at the moment, with almost every house occupied at all times day and night!
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,064
    edited March 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    I am guessing there is no standard way to measure Covid-19 deaths and that each country does it differently. If so, aren't comparisons entirely meaningless?

    Crude but effective: ignore entirely what anybody says anybody died of, just compare average vs actual death count for the time of year (accepting that this captures deaths indirectly due to CV owing to lack of medical treatment of other conditions and so on).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/italys-true-death-rate-warning-britons-want-call-covid-19-lockdown/
    Several problems with this approach: As pointed out several times yesterday, it takes a couple of months to get the accurate total count of deaths. Comparing a partial count this year with a total count from last year is lying with statistics.

    If something unrelated to the pandemic decreases the number of deaths in the second half of March and April, such as warmer weather) then that would totally obscure the effect of the pandemic disease.

    If in the middle of June we find that there were no excess deaths in April this year, would that be due to isolation measures or due to the virus only killing of differnt people from those who would have died anyway?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    Sandpit said:

    The most sensible thing he can do is offer to assist and support the government in any way he can through the crisis (and the government would be silly to resist, should invite him to the key COBR meetings etc.), which buys him a few months to sort out as best he can the internal party problems caused by the Corbynites.

    People seem very keen that during this crisis the LABOUR opposition ceases to oppose the TORY government.

    I wonder if this sentiment would apply to the same extent if the parties were reversed?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    How can you come up with any definition of 'non-establishment' that includes Farage but excludes John Major and William Hague? Serious question.
    Major maybe. Hague no - Oxford PPE.
    Hage was half establishment, Oxford yes but comprehensive school rather than major public school
    And Ripon Grammar.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781

    Organised religion might well win the 2020 Darwin Awards in a cramped field

    Israel is struggling to contain a concentration of coronavirus infections among ultra-Orthodox Jews, with the impact reaching Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who went into isolation after an adviser from the community tested positive.

    Mr. Netanyahu’s office said on Monday evening that his test for the virus, as well as those of his family and close staff, came out negative, though officials said he would remain in isolation as a precaution in keeping with ministry of health guidelines.

    While the ultraorthodox make up about 10% of Israel’s population, ultraorthodox patients account for 50% of those hospitalized with the coronavirus disease, Covid-19, according to an analysis by Israel’s Channel 12.

    Israel has 4,695 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus as of Monday, with 16 deaths. Jerusalem, with a large ultraorthodox population, and the ultraorthodox city of Bnei Brak, have the highest infection rates in Israel, the Ministry of Health said.

    Israeli officials attribute the high infection rates among the ultraorthodox to a failure to follow social distancing guidelines, including by holding large weddings and prayer gatherings. The Health Ministry last week listed synagogues as the locations with the highest rate of infections.


    Mr. Netanyhau, in a televised address on Monday night, slammed what he said were certain groups that flouted health regulations, and ordered law enforcement to crack down on such behavior.

    “The minority that it isn’t disciplined endangers itself and the majority,” he said.

    Some in the insular ultraorthodox community said members weren’t defying public orders, but rather learning belatedly how much of a threat the virus poses.

    Chaim Epstein, an ultraorthodox member of the Jerusalem City Council, said ultraorthodox rabbis, who shun most mainstream communication, weren’t listening to the radio or otherwise getting information about the dangers of the novel coronavirus. “They didn’t understand how bad the situation was,” he said.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-fights-coronavirus-spread-among-ultra-orthodox-jews-11585591046

    It's a similar story among older Orthodox Jews in the UK, apparently.

    Early figures were 5% of the death, 0.5% of the population.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Well that didn't take long...Daily Mail....Coronavirus deaths could be over 20% MORE than official figures.

    Twitter will be on the case again, accusing Boris of hiding the bodies.

    I'm getting a bit fed up with these predictions. They seem to change every day, and change direction all the time as well.
    Exactly the thing we come to PB to get away from.

    My guess is that 20% above official figures understates the true extent.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/italys-true-death-rate-warning-britons-want-call-covid-19-lockdown/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    HYUFD said:

    The main question it seems will be whether Starmer wins on the first vote or not, not whether he wins at all.

    If Starmer does win it will be the first time the centrist candidate won a contested Labour leadership election since Blair in 1994

    Winning in Len's world is about votes counted not votes cast.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.

    By background, Thatcher was posher than Starmer.

    Of course, but he has bought in to a set of values on the way which is why change isn't on the agenda.

    Hmmm, I am not sure that's right. But I guess it depends on what you mean by change. In any case, just about everything will change as a result of this pandemic - both in the UK and elsewhere.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.

    By background, Thatcher was posher than Starmer.

    Of course, but he has bought in to a set of values on the way which is why change isn't on the agenda.

    Hmmm, I am not sure that's right. But I guess it depends on what you mean by change. In any case, just about everything will change as a result of this pandemic - both in the UK and elsewhere.

    only time will tell.

    Anyway meeting calls, have a good morning.
  • One of the good things about the current situation is that it is a lot easier to talk to your GP. I had a non coronavirus issue that needed to be addressed and found myself having a telephone consultation less than two hours later. Before this came along you could wait weeks.

    It seems that patients are more reluctant to both the doc at the moment.

    Hopefully this will change GP services for the better.

    We really shouldn't have sick people all sitting together hacking their guts up in a waiting room and seems perfectly reasonable for quite a few things to use video calls.
    For people with physical ailments, they will still need to go in person. For mental health, it can definitely be remote.

    I remember a few years back, there was a mental health trust with 2 hospitals and the consultants kept driving back and forth between them. Then someone came up with the idea of using a large ipad at the smaller hospital. It works very well.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    Farage- not establishment? Titter ye not!
    One who went rogue and delivered Brexit.
    Just a different establishment
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Interesting tidbit - aircraft passenger numbers took 2.5-3 years to recover after 9/11
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    FPT
    This is a post from my wife's cousin's daughter (58) living in Toronto
    This is a fearful illness

    I am a presumptive case of Covid-19 waiting for Toronto Public Health to confirm (that seems like it is taking forever). I was wondering when I typed this post if there is actually a stigma to having Covid-19 but who cares. I am stuck at home, isolated, sick as hell and wondering when this is going to end. I have been hospitalized to get oxygen, my fever hit 40.1(104+). I now get winded going from the living room to the bathroom, my chest is tight, I feel like I have glass shards in my lungs, I have lost my sense of smell and taste. This has been hell and I am 10 days in. Nobody wants this! It is not a hoax, no one is immune, this is killing people! Be scared. People need to take this seriously and stay the fuck home. You do not want to be responsible for giving this to someone you love. People please start listening!!

    How horrible. I hope she recovers soon. Although technically, Nadine Dorries mum was pretty much immune.
    It is a graphic description of suffering. Thank you for your kind wishes

    Her mother is in dementia care and she has only just lost her sister to breast cancer

    Life is unbelievably difficult for so many
    Acutely aware life is precious and fragile, especially having lost mum to to Leukaemia at Xmas. Goodness knows what we would be doing with her now. The ITU experience is live in my imagination. Meanwhile I am dreading the call from Dads care home and pondering breaking law to extract him and care for him if necessary. Also figuring out how to shield wife on MS immunosuppressive therapy whilst juggling two very bored teenage boys. All the while worrying what happens to them if I were to draw the short straw.

    My sister finished her final cancer treatments in February. Thank God she did. I can only imagine how awful it must be for those having to go through the same now.

    Particularly since many treatments for cancer suppress/screw up the immune system.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011

    I was thinking that. Years ago, my old boss had her house burgled by a professional burgler. A neighbour spotted them and the police arrived just in time. They remarked that they had been chasing him (the burgler) for a very long time and he was a well known professional in the area.

    No idea what he was put away for, probably six months.

    But you're right. These few professional burglers aren't having a good time of it at the moment, with almost every house occupied at all times day and night!

    Career switch required. Cars are sitting ducks. It's like Grand Theft Auto round my way atm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    The most sensible thing he can do is offer to assist and support the government in any way he can through the crisis (and the government would be silly to resist, should invite him to the key COBR meetings etc.), which buys him a few months to sort out as best he can the internal party problems caused by the Corbynites.

    People seem very keen that during this crisis the LABOUR opposition ceases to oppose the TORY government.

    I wonder if this sentiment would apply to the same extent if the parties were reversed?
    I'd be perfectly happy for either side to oppose on valid grounds. Such as, for example, cancelling exams without consulting OFQUAL and announcing substitutes for them in a press conference with no detail behind them (ten days on we are still waiting for actual instructions on that).

    But carping for the sake of opposing is never a good look, whichever side is doing it. It's one of the things William Hague was criticised for over Northern Ireland, and also Michael Howard over detention of terrorist suspects.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2020
    isam said:

    twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/1244911001872543746?s=21

    I imagine things like car accident admissions to hospital have dropped dramatically.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    Why aren't the government helping these poor dealers ..said hardly anyone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Shrine kissing in Iran, communion in Italy, high rates of infection amongst ultra orthodox Jewry.

    Looks like the Abrahamic religions are having a shocker.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575

    Organised religion might well win the 2020 Darwin Awards in a cramped field

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-fights-coronavirus-spread-among-ultra-orthodox-jews-11585591046

    I see they arrested the preacher in the Florida that gave sermons saying that we heal people by placing our hands on them....
    Most churches are livestreaming the priest without public worship
  • Organised religion might well win the 2020 Darwin Awards in a cramped field

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-fights-coronavirus-spread-among-ultra-orthodox-jews-11585591046

    I see they arrested the preacher in the Florida that gave sermons saying that we heal people by placing our hands on them....
    Good.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    Key-tamine workers, innit?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    The most sensible thing he can do is offer to assist and support the government in any way he can through the crisis (and the government would be silly to resist, should invite him to the key COBR meetings etc.), which buys him a few months to sort out as best he can the internal party problems caused by the Corbynites.

    People seem very keen that during this crisis the LABOUR opposition ceases to oppose the TORY government.

    I wonder if this sentiment would apply to the same extent if the parties were reversed?
    By hook or by crook we have arrived at the kind of government that it seems most people want: social democracy inside closed borders.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    How can you come up with any definition of 'non-establishment' that includes Farage but excludes John Major and William Hague? Serious question.
    Major maybe. Hague no - Oxford PPE.
    Tory Party Conference speaker as a teenager.

  • isam said:

    twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/1244911001872543746?s=21

    I imagine things like car accident admissions to hospital have dropped dramatically.
    And Saturday night assault admissions.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.

    By background, Thatcher was posher than Starmer.

    Of course, but he has bought in to a set of values on the way which is why change isn't on the agenda.

    Hmmm, I am not sure that's right. But I guess it depends on what you mean by change. In any case, just about everything will change as a result of this pandemic - both in the UK and elsewhere.

    only time will tell.

    Anyway meeting calls, have a good morning.

    Are you not isolating? You are Stephen Kinnock and I claim my £5!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    The most sensible thing he can do is offer to assist and support the government in any way he can through the crisis (and the government would be silly to resist, should invite him to the key COBR meetings etc.), which buys him a few months to sort out as best he can the internal party problems caused by the Corbynites.

    People seem very keen that during this crisis the LABOUR opposition ceases to oppose the TORY government.

    I wonder if this sentiment would apply to the same extent if the parties were reversed?
    By hook or by crook we have arrived at the kind of government that it seems most people want: social democracy inside closed borders.
    'Crook' certainly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2020

    One of the good things about the current situation is that it is a lot easier to talk to your GP. I had a non coronavirus issue that needed to be addressed and found myself having a telephone consultation less than two hours later. Before this came along you could wait weeks.

    It seems that patients are more reluctant to both the doc at the moment.

    Hopefully this will change GP services for the better.

    We really shouldn't have sick people all sitting together hacking their guts up in a waiting room and seems perfectly reasonable for quite a few things to use video calls.
    For people with physical ailments, they will still need to go in person. For mental health, it can definitely be remote.

    I remember a few years back, there was a mental health trust with 2 hospitals and the consultants kept driving back and forth between them. Then someone came up with the idea of using a large ipad at the smaller hospital. It works very well.
    Sure...I didn't mean that sick people shouldn't go to see the doctor in person, it was more the fact before this we would have somebody who is coughing their lungs up sits in the same room as everybody else for 20-30 mins, especially anywhere near old and vulnerable people there for another reason. When you think about it, it seems an absolutely crazy thing to do.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2020
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.

    They all got there differently. Who do you consider non-establishment, out of interest?

    Corbyn, Farage, Brown of recent tenure. Thatcher since she took on (some ) vested interests.
    How can you come up with any definition of 'non-establishment' that includes Farage but excludes John Major and William Hague? Serious question.
    Major maybe. Hague no - Oxford PPE.
    Whereas Dulwich College and a career as a broker in the commodities market is not?
    Being a broker in the city is hardly establishment. Or at least wasn’t in the 90s. The LIFFE market was probably over 50% barrow boys and non graduates
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,246
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
    Please enlighten.
    Further hint - in addition to being the only PM to date who was a solicitor, he was also the only one whose first language was not English.
    DLG
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    Key-tamine workers, innit?
    There was a report the other day, in the Guardian no less, that there was much less cocaine available to dealers.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Organised religion might well win the 2020 Darwin Awards in a cramped field

    Israel is struggling to contain a concentration of coronavirus infections among ultra-Orthodox Jews, with the impact reaching Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who went into isolation after an adviser from the community tested positive.

    Mr. Netanyahu’s office said on Monday evening that his test for the virus, as well as those of his family and close staff, came out negative, though officials said he would remain in isolation as a precaution in keeping with ministry of health guidelines.

    While the ultraorthodox make up about 10% of Israel’s population, ultraorthodox patients account for 50% of those hospitalized with the coronavirus disease, Covid-19, according to an analysis by Israel’s Channel 12.

    Israel has 4,695 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus as of Monday, with 16 deaths. Jerusalem, with a large ultraorthodox population, and the ultraorthodox city of Bnei Brak, have the highest infection rates in Israel, the Ministry of Health said.

    Israeli officials attribute the high infection rates among the ultraorthodox to a failure to follow social distancing guidelines, including by holding large weddings and prayer gatherings. The Health Ministry last week listed synagogues as the locations with the highest rate of infections.


    Mr. Netanyhau, in a televised address on Monday night, slammed what he said were certain groups that flouted health regulations, and ordered law enforcement to crack down on such behavior.

    “The minority that it isn’t disciplined endangers itself and the majority,” he said.

    Some in the insular ultraorthodox community said members weren’t defying public orders, but rather learning belatedly how much of a threat the virus poses.

    Chaim Epstein, an ultraorthodox member of the Jerusalem City Council, said ultraorthodox rabbis, who shun most mainstream communication, weren’t listening to the radio or otherwise getting information about the dangers of the novel coronavirus. “They didn’t understand how bad the situation was,” he said.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-fights-coronavirus-spread-among-ultra-orthodox-jews-11585591046

    Bnei Brak is near Tel Aviv, not Jerusalem. I've no doubt that the thrust of the article is broadly correct, but basic errors like that don't give me much confidence.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eristdoof said:


    IshmaelZ said:

    I am guessing there is no standard way to measure Covid-19 deaths and that each country does it differently. If so, aren't comparisons entirely meaningless?

    Crude but effective: ignore entirely what anybody says anybody died of, just compare average vs actual death count for the time of year (accepting that this captures deaths indirectly due to CV owing to lack of medical treatment of other conditions and so on).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/italys-true-death-rate-warning-britons-want-call-covid-19-lockdown/
    Several problems with this approach: As pointed out several times yesterday, it takes a couple of months to get the accurate total count of deaths. Comparing a partial count this year with a total count from last year is lying with statistics.

    If something unrelated to the pandemic decreases the number of deaths in the second half of March and April, such as warmer weather) then that would totally obscure the effect of the pandemic disease.

    If in the middle of June we find that there were no excess deaths in April this year, would that be due to isolation measures or due to the virus only killing of differnt people from those who would have died anyway?
    As to your first paragraph, temporary problem and can only err in one direction. Second and third paragraphs valid but we can identify and correct for errors involved. The method is not perfect but it does rule out a whole heap of sources of error and opportunities for fraud. Or would you not be interested in seeing the relevant figures for Wuh an?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2020

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    The most sensible thing he can do is offer to assist and support the government in any way he can through the crisis (and the government would be silly to resist, should invite him to the key COBR meetings etc.), which buys him a few months to sort out as best he can the internal party problems caused by the Corbynites.

    People seem very keen that during this crisis the LABOUR opposition ceases to oppose the TORY government.

    I wonder if this sentiment would apply to the same extent if the parties were reversed?
    By hook or by crook we have arrived at the kind of government that it seems most people want: social democracy inside closed borders.
    'Crook' certainly.
    Yes I laid on an open goal for anyone who wanted a tap in. My pleasure
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831
    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Well that didn't take long...Daily Mail....Coronavirus deaths could be over 20% MORE than official figures.

    Twitter will be on the case again, accusing Boris of hiding the bodies.

    I'm getting a bit fed up with these predictions. They seem to change every day, and change direction all the time as well.
    Exactly the thing we come to PB to get away from.

    My guess is that 20% above official figures understates the true extent.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/italys-true-death-rate-warning-britons-want-call-covid-19-lockdown/
    As mentioned above, and as has been linked on here before, it seems reasonable that the best controlled trial - the Diamond Princess - would give a reasonable estimate of the CFR/IFR.

    https://nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380
    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
    Please enlighten.
    Further hint - in addition to being the only PM to date who was a solicitor, he was also the only one whose first language was not English.
    DLG
    Wasn't Attlee a solicitor?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Alistair said:

    Interesting tidbit - aircraft passenger numbers took 2.5-3 years to recover after 9/11

    If you are a plague survivor (and it is found you are immune for the foreseeable future), I imagine the next few years you are going to be able to travel the world for bugger all.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Foxy said:

    I am not convinced by the bcg story, but it is notable that the programme of routine vaccination in the UK ran from 1953-2005 in 10-14 year olds. In theory most long resident Brits born between 1940 and 1990 should have had it.

    Several countries never used it, notably the Netherlands and USA.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/century-old-vaccine-investigated-as-a-weapon-against-coronavirus
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Alistair said:

    Interesting tidbit - aircraft passenger numbers took 2.5-3 years to recover after 9/11

    Wow, and that was due to a tiny increase in actual risk. The risk increase whilst there is no COVID vaccine and you haven't already had it or haven't had a vaccine is very very real right now.
    I'm not sure it'll ever recover, not for the next 20 years.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    edited March 2020

    Particularly since many treatments for cancer suppress/screw up the immune system.

    Apologies in advance for another baleful "I wonder how many" offering but -

    I wonder how many early cancer diagnoses will be missed this year - causing more deaths from cancer in future years - because of resources going to Covid-19 and people not wanting to "trouble" the NHS with other things at this time of overstretch in the system?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Alistair said:

    Interesting tidbit - aircraft passenger numbers took 2.5-3 years to recover after 9/11

    My old squadronmate who is now a B744 captain for BA is ferrying them to Bournemouth for what he expects to be permanent storage/scrap for them and redundancy for him.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,064

    One of the good things about the current situation is that it is a lot easier to talk to your GP. I had a non coronavirus issue that needed to be addressed and found myself having a telephone consultation less than two hours later. Before this came along you could wait weeks.

    It seems that patients are more reluctant to both the doc at the moment.

    Hopefully this will change GP services for the better.

    We really shouldn't have sick people all sitting together hacking their guts up in a waiting room and seems perfectly reasonable for quite a few things to use video calls.
    One thing that annoys me in Germany is that if you are off work sick for 3 days you have to personally visit the doctor to get a sick note.* As a result the GPs effectively waste their time with patients who have been genuinely ill but with a minor illness, which requires no medical consultation. Often you are off work for 3 or four days, but are visibly on the mend when you visit, just to get a piece of paper that you can give to your employer. I remember the UK government changing this in the early 80s to self-certification for the first 7 days. Sometimes I think we learn nothing from our neighbours.

    *I think under Corona this was one of the first rules to suspended, here's hoping we move to the British system in the near future.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.

    Long-Bailey's background is no different to Starmer's. He got further because he is smarter.

    Well he also had the opportunity to go to a grammar school, which RLB might not have, and the fortune for it to be turned into a private school while he was there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    It's the burglars I feel for...
    I was thinking that. Years ago, my old boss had her house burgled by a professional burgler. A neighbour spotted them and the police arrived just in time. They remarked that they had been chasing him (the burgler) for a very long time and he was a well known professional in the area.

    No idea what he was put away for, probably six months.

    But you're right. These few professional burglers aren't having a good time of it at the moment, with almost every house occupied at all times day and night!
    On the other hand, there's a hell of a lot of empty shops and businesses.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    edited March 2020



    Major maybe. Hague no - Oxford PPE.

    Whereas Dulwich College and a career as a broker in the commodities market is not?

    as I said, he went rogue.

    Farage was half establishment like Hague, major public school but not Oxbridge, ie the reverse of Hague. May was half establishment like Hague, as was Ed Miliband and Michael Howard.

    Corbyn and Major and Brown and IDS were non establishment, Clegg, Blair, Boris and Cameron full establishment by background ie major public school and Oxbridge.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Dura_Ace said:

    Alistair said:

    Interesting tidbit - aircraft passenger numbers took 2.5-3 years to recover after 9/11

    My old squadronmate who is now a B744 captain for BA is ferrying them to Bournemouth for what he expects to be permanent storage/scrap
    Old people?
  • JFNJFN Posts: 25

    Quincel said:

    IanB2 said:

    First in the queue at Sainsburys....I will have 10 packets of bog rolls, 5kg of flour, 3kg of dried Penne....

    https://twitter.com/lisa_fernandez/status/1244862244111835136?s=20
    According to R4 More or Less, only 4% of shoppers are stockpiling pasta, yet this is sufficient to clear the shelves.
    I wonder whether 1 in 25 are stockpiling cocaine.

    Now must be a very trying time for anyone with an illegal drugs habit. It can't improve the mood in some locked-down houses.
    Not sure it is a great time for the dealers either....
    It's the burglars I feel for...
    I was thinking that. Years ago, my old boss had her house burgled by a professional burgler. A neighbour spotted them and the police arrived just in time. They remarked that they had been chasing him (the burgler) for a very long time and he was a well known professional in the area.

    No idea what he was put away for, probably six months.

    But you're right. These few professional burglers aren't having a good time of it at the moment, with almost every house occupied at all times day and night!
    They've moved to car thieving / smashing windows where I am so don't feel too sorry for them...!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Interesting tidbit - aircraft passenger numbers took 2.5-3 years to recover after 9/11

    Wow, and that was due to a tiny increase in actual risk. The risk increase whilst there is no COVID vaccine and you haven't already had it or haven't had a vaccine is very very real right now.
    I'm not sure it'll ever recover, not for the next 20 years.
    My take was the risk was even lower than usual, as all the extra security measures being taken, both at the airports and tracking dangerous individuals.

    Thus, as a much younger and far less risk adverse individual, I travelled loads after 9/11, due to insane deals you could get.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.

    Long-Bailey's background is no different to Starmer's. He got further because he is smarter.

    Well he also had the opportunity to go to a grammar school, which RLB might not have, and the fortune for it to be turned into a private school while he was there.

    Of course. But they both went to law school and they both qualified to practise law.

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,700

    isam said:

    twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/1244911001872543746?s=21

    I imagine things like car accident admissions to hospital have dropped dramatically.
    You think net deaths might even out...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Well that didn't take long...Daily Mail....Coronavirus deaths could be over 20% MORE than official figures.

    Twitter will be on the case again, accusing Boris of hiding the bodies.

    I'm getting a bit fed up with these predictions. They seem to change every day, and change direction all the time as well.
    Exactly the thing we come to PB to get away from.

    My guess is that 20% above official figures understates the true extent.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/italys-true-death-rate-warning-britons-want-call-covid-19-lockdown/
    As mentioned above, and as has been linked on here before, it seems reasonable that the best controlled trial - the Diamond Princess - would give a reasonable estimate of the CFR/IFR.

    https://nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w
    But we have a denominator for the Diamond Princess (lots of them - population, cases, symptomatic cases)! None for the real world.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Endillion said:

    Organised religion might well win the 2020 Darwin Awards in a cramped field

    Israel is struggling to contain a concentration of coronavirus infections among ultra-Orthodox Jews, with the impact reaching Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who went into isolation after an adviser from the community tested positive.

    Mr. Netanyahu’s office said on Monday evening that his test for the virus, as well as those of his family and close staff, came out negative, though officials said he would remain in isolation as a precaution in keeping with ministry of health guidelines.

    While the ultraorthodox make up about 10% of Israel’s population, ultraorthodox patients account for 50% of those hospitalized with the coronavirus disease, Covid-19, according to an analysis by Israel’s Channel 12.

    Israel has 4,695 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus as of Monday, with 16 deaths. Jerusalem, with a large ultraorthodox population, and the ultraorthodox city of Bnei Brak, have the highest infection rates in Israel, the Ministry of Health said.

    Israeli officials attribute the high infection rates among the ultraorthodox to a failure to follow social distancing guidelines, including by holding large weddings and prayer gatherings. The Health Ministry last week listed synagogues as the locations with the highest rate of infections.


    Mr. Netanyhau, in a televised address on Monday night, slammed what he said were certain groups that flouted health regulations, and ordered law enforcement to crack down on such behavior.

    “The minority that it isn’t disciplined endangers itself and the majority,” he said.

    Some in the insular ultraorthodox community said members weren’t defying public orders, but rather learning belatedly how much of a threat the virus poses.

    Chaim Epstein, an ultraorthodox member of the Jerusalem City Council, said ultraorthodox rabbis, who shun most mainstream communication, weren’t listening to the radio or otherwise getting information about the dangers of the novel coronavirus. “They didn’t understand how bad the situation was,” he said.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-fights-coronavirus-spread-among-ultra-orthodox-jews-11585591046

    Bnei Brak is near Tel Aviv, not Jerusalem. I've no doubt that the thrust of the article is broadly correct, but basic errors like that don't give me much confidence.

    To be fair, if you are an American Tel Aviv is very near Jerusalem.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    One of the good things about the current situation is that it is a lot easier to talk to your GP. I had a non coronavirus issue that needed to be addressed and found myself having a telephone consultation less than two hours later. Before this came along you could wait weeks.

    It seems that patients are more reluctant to both the doc at the moment.

    Hopefully this will change GP services for the better.

    We really shouldn't have sick people all sitting together hacking their guts up in a waiting room and seems perfectly reasonable for quite a few things to use video calls.
    For people with physical ailments, they will still need to go in person. For mental health, it can definitely be remote.

    I remember a few years back, there was a mental health trust with 2 hospitals and the consultants kept driving back and forth between them. Then someone came up with the idea of using a large ipad at the smaller hospital. It works very well.
    Sure...I didn't mean that sick people shouldn't go to see the doctor in person, it was more this crazy idea of somebody who is coughing their lungs up sits in the same room as everybody else for 20-30 mins, especially anywhere near old and vulnerable people there for another reason. When you think about it, it seems an absolutely crazy thing to do.
    Quite a lot of stuff is ridiculous. A relative has long term, treatable condition. As with most such conditions, it involve taking a medicine, the dose of which needs to be checked/adjusted periodically. The process is that she has to visit the GP. The GP nods solemnly, and recommends she sees the consultant. Then she gets an appointment to see the consultant.

    A rational approach would be a scheduled appointment with the consultant every 6 months...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    Dura_Ace said:

    Alistair said:

    Interesting tidbit - aircraft passenger numbers took 2.5-3 years to recover after 9/11

    My old squadronmate who is now a B744 captain for BA is ferrying them to Bournemouth for what he expects to be permanent storage/scrap for them and redundancy for him.
    Sadly it looks like this crisis is leading to the end of the 744, at least as passenger transport. KLM flew their last 747 flight a couple of days ago.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011

    Well that didn't take long...Daily Mail....THE REAL UK DEATH TOLL...Coronavirus deaths could be over 20% MORE than official figures.

    Twitter will be on the case again, accusing Boris of hiding the bodies.

    That's a statement of the obvious by the Mail.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2020

    isam said:

    twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/1244911001872543746?s=21

    I imagine things like car accident admissions to hospital have dropped dramatically.
    You think net deaths might even out...
    There may well be a very weird effect. Less car accidents, less accidents at work, less pollution related hospitalizations, people not catching other illnesses. Perhaps people even eating healthier, working out more and less stress from commuting.

    I am not saying it is going to be lower, but I am sure there are going to be all these other impacts related to us basically suspending normal life.

    In a way, I am actually quite positive on a few things. Hopefully more businesses embrace work from home (at least part of the week), which I think will be great for people's family life and reducing stress of commute.

    On the health side, the processes being investigated for a new vaccine, have potential for a load of different diseases. And also the development in advanced testing the same.

    All countries are clearly going to invest in their healthcare system capacity as well. Perhaps, also increased efficiencies, because of need facing this crisis.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    ...

    isam said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.

    Long-Bailey's background is no different to Starmer's. He got further because he is smarter.

    Well he also had the opportunity to go to a grammar school, which RLB might not have, and the fortune for it to be turned into a private school while he was there.

    Of course. But they both went to law school and they both qualified to practise law.

    Sounds like she did it with less help
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,247

    rkrkrk said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.
    Well, in fairness not too many of those have made it to the top. I can think of one other working class Manchester solicitor who made it to the top - never Leader of the Opposition or indeed leader of one of the two main parties (weirdly) but he was Prime Minister for a time. Anyone guesses as to who it was?
    Please enlighten.
    Further hint - in addition to being the only PM to date who was a solicitor, he was also the only one whose first language was not English.
    DLG
    Wasn't Attlee a solicitor?
    Attlee's father was a solicitor and while a barrister he was based for a time with his father's firm, representing them in court cases before the rules were changed to allow solicitors to appear themselves. He was not however technically a solicitor.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,064
    IshmaelZ said:

    eristdoof said:


    IshmaelZ said:

    I am guessing there is no standard way to measure Covid-19 deaths and that each country does it differently. If so, aren't comparisons entirely meaningless?

    Crude but effective: ignore entirely what anybody says anybody died of, just compare average vs actual death count for the time of year (accepting that this captures deaths indirectly due to CV owing to lack of medical treatment of other conditions and so on).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/30/italys-true-death-rate-warning-britons-want-call-covid-19-lockdown/
    Several problems with this approach: As pointed out several times yesterday, it takes a couple of months to get the accurate total count of deaths. Comparing a partial count this year with a total count from last year is lying with statistics.

    If something unrelated to the pandemic decreases the number of deaths in the second half of March and April, such as warmer weather) then that would totally obscure the effect of the pandemic disease.

    If in the middle of June we find that there were no excess deaths in April this year, would that be due to isolation measures or due to the virus only killing of differnt people from those who would have died anyway?
    As to your first paragraph, temporary problem and can only err in one direction. Second and third paragraphs valid but we can identify and correct for errors involved. The method is not perfect but it does rule out a whole heap of sources of error and opportunities for fraud. Or would you not be interested in seeing the relevant figures for Wuh an?
    I would be interested in the figures. But I'm not interested in the current figures for March 23-29 2020 compared to March 25-31 2019. As I said making a direct comparison now would be a clear case of fraud.

    I too am shocked to find that the UK (and elsewhere) figures for COVID deaths is only for COVID hospital deaths, but one advantage is they are available on a time scale on which the policy makers can act.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270
    edited March 2020

    DavidL said:

    As horse races go this one has indeed been pretty dull and of course the cancellation of the latter debates didn’t really help. RLB has been so poor that you honestly wonder whether she should even be in the shadow cabinet. And then there’s Jeremy. What on earth do you do with him?

    Labour should get some sort of a bounce from the new leader but he has a tricky hand to play.

    If I were Starmer I would be wanting the Corbyn left to be shouting from the rooftops about betrayal each and every day. It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing. It will also ensure that internally more and more members turn away from them.

    "It will be the quickest way to demsointrate that things are changing."

    Labour elect a posh white bloke who has been to Oxbridge and call it change.

    I look forward to the self righteous lectures on "diversity"

    I don't think Starmer went to Oxbridge, but that is by the by. Everything Starmer has achieved he has achieved through hard work and talent. He is basically a turbo-charged you.

    He comes from the same clique that gave us Boris, Cameron and Blair.

    It's not actually change, it's simply more establishment.
    So you will be cheering from the rafters when Long Bailey gets the nod on Saturday? And not because she is not an election losing disaster, but because she is a genuinely working-class Manchester Solicitor.

    Long-Bailey's background is no different to Starmer's. He got further because he is smarter.


    The second part of sentence 2 is undoubtedly correct, the first part remains to be seen. I suspect simple addition is not one of Jennie Formby's strong points.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    Particularly since many treatments for cancer suppress/screw up the immune system.

    Apologies in advance for another baleful "I wonder how many" offering but -

    I wonder how many early cancer diagnoses will be missed this year - causing more deaths from cancer in future years - because of resources going to Covid-19 and people not wanting to "trouble" the NHS with other things at this time of overstretch in the system?
    My Dad just finished chemo in Feb, and his biopsy, meant to be last week, has been postponed because of the Coronavirus situation. Slightly unnerving
This discussion has been closed.