And so it has started. They can't help themselves.
To be fair this has been suggested well before the current crisis.
There is no reason why partisan politicians should be voting on recommendations of the Boundary Commission as they have a conflict.
You need to sit down, have a nice cup of tea, and think about what you're saying.
I know exactly what I am saying.
MPs vote to set the principles (no of seats, variance etc)
Boundary Commission does its work. Lots of input from various interested parties at this stage.
Final report laid before parliament.
It should be implemented automatically. Otherwise politicians with an interest can repeatedly frustrate the law. That why (I think) we ran the last general election on the 2001 constituency boundaries.
But the information used was from the 2001 census, so it was nine years out of date at the time.
They don't use numbers from the census to determine the electorates of parliamentary constituencies, they use the electorates at the time of review. Using census figures would include children and some adults who aren't eligible to vote.
I thought that using the electoral roll was brought in under Cameron? Certainly when I was working on the 2011 census I was told census data was used for electoral purposes. As I recall, it was a controversial change for precisely the reasons you state, e.g. those in constituencies with large numbers of migrants would be adversely impacted.
I know the Wikipedia article I cited says something different but then, Wikipedia also says Richard III was the rightful king of England.
Hyufd would probably know.
Polls indicate 64% approval levels for Richard III when compared to a King Edward potato so yes true that Richard III is currently the rightful king of England.
Edward IV was a lardbucket rather than a potato.
But it was after he'd had his chips that Richard usurped the throne.
Like other people in this thread I think that clip shows Biden doing a good job communicating. He needs to reach people who voted for Trump and have some sympathy for what they're saying. In that clip he's doing a good job of vocalizing what they'll be feeling, which is that even if they agree with them, there's something not right about him.
I see Brazilian Trump has attacked the lockdown by various states authorities.
Jair Bolsonaro, has claimed he “wouldn’t feel anything” if infected with coronavirus and rubbished efforts to contain the illness with large-scale quarantines as his country’s two biggest cities went into shutdown in a desperate bid to save lives.
If I'm claiming universal credit because I've lost my job, will I have to go in for a face to face interview, or is everything being done online now? Thanx.
No you won't - DWP have suspended that requirement...
In fact there has been an online ID check option when registering for UC for some time but it's pretty unreliable so most opt for the face-to-face ID checks.
These have now been suspended as I understand it. I have not yet helped a client claim UC since these changes have come in so I don't know how that works in practice.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
327million people, and it all boils down to Trump or Biden?
This. I have said this before. I asked my Democrat relatives for a candidate who is -
1) 40-50 2) Preferably a former Governor or Senator 3) Healthy 4) Able to speak 5) Politically actually a Democrat 6) Not wholly owned by Goldman Sachs. 7) Not a re-tread
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
The simple answer is that is simply moving up the tree - starting with 2, instead of 1.
The true answer would depend on things like saturation - how quickly does the infection get to all the cells in the neighbourhood, so runs out of new cells to infect.
At this point you need a highly trained clinical researcher.
That would seem to indicate that excepting cases (appreciate this is most) where the virus is multiplying in the bloodstream, there may still be a mechanism whereby heavy exposure (or 'viral load) can influence not just the likelihood, but the severity of a viral infection.
This virus is replicating in the nose and lungs, not in the bloodstream, according to the Washington Post - which seems to be intuitively right, since you might as well breed in the place you live and work.
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
The simple answer is that is simply moving up the tree - starting with 2, instead of 1.
The true answer would depend on things like saturation - how quickly does the infection get to all the cells in the neighbourhood, so runs out of new cells to infect.
At this point you need a highly trained clinical researcher.
That would seem to indicate that excepting cases (appreciate this is most) where the virus is multiplying in the bloodstream, there may still be a mechanism whereby heavy exposure (or 'viral load) can influence not just the likelihood, but the severity of a viral infection.
This virus is replicating in the nose and lungs, not in the bloodstream, according to the Washington Post - which seems to be intuitively right, since you might as well breed in the place you live and work.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
Our business (printing) is still going along as normal. We have enough work to see us through the next two weeks. Currently booking in fewer orders than usual but we are still taking quite a few new orders. We had 110 staff in yesterday.
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
The simple answer is that is simply moving up the tree - starting with 2, instead of 1.
The true answer would depend on things like saturation - how quickly does the infection get to all the cells in the neighbourhood, so runs out of new cells to infect.
At this point you need a highly trained clinical researcher.
That would seem to indicate that excepting cases (appreciate this is most) where the virus is multiplying in the bloodstream, there may still be a mechanism whereby heavy exposure (or 'viral load) can influence not just the likelihood, but the severity of a viral infection.
This virus is replicating in the nose and lungs, not in the bloodstream, according to the Washington Post - which seems to be intuitively right, since you might as well breed in the place you live and work.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
Our business (printing) is still going along as normal. We have enough work to see us through the next two weeks. Currently booking in fewer orders than usual but we are still taking quite a few new orders. We had 110 staff in yesterday.
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
The simple answer is that is simply moving up the tree - starting with 2, instead of 1.
The true answer would depend on things like saturation - how quickly does the infection get to all the cells in the neighbourhood, so runs out of new cells to infect.
At this point you need a highly trained clinical researcher.
That would seem to indicate that excepting cases (appreciate this is most) where the virus is multiplying in the bloodstream, there may still be a mechanism whereby heavy exposure (or 'viral load) can influence not just the likelihood, but the severity of a viral infection.
This virus is replicating in the nose and lungs, not in the bloodstream, according to the Washington Post - which seems to be intuitively right, since you might as well breed in the place you live and work.
Did you mean to say breed? I think breeding in your workplace is only done in some highly specialised professions. Like my father’s.
I am assuming viruses work from home, setting us an example.
Not going to hazard a guess about your father.
Dairy farmer
Reminds me, why is skimmed milk becoming o scarce now? 2 small containers in M&S at opening time, Tesco stopped stocking it.
Was a bugger to find semi skimmed. Went for two four pints instead of one six pinter. But I assumed that was due to people buying in bulk so they would only need to shop once.
Looks like not just Excel Centre going to be used, NEC and GMEX next up.
The NEC is in a great location for it to be fair.
Wonder where could they use up the toon? The Metro Arena (or whatever it is called these days) isn't that big is it?
No, not really! I’ve mentioned before that maybe they could use the Newcastle University sports centre that is quite literally right next to the Royal Victoria Infirmary Hospital in the centre of town, but I have no idea if that would be big enough!
There’s quite a few hospitals here, including the relatively new purpose built Cramlington Emergency Care Hospital, so maybe there’s sufficient capacity.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
Our business (printing) is still going along as normal. We have enough work to see us through the next two weeks. Currently booking in fewer orders than usual but we are still taking quite a few new orders. We had 110 staff in yesterday.
All staff 2m apart I trust!
Yes, pretty well disciplined. And we've had hand sanitiser machines everywhere this past three weeks. All doors are locked, you have to thoroughly wash hands and sanitise before arriving and leaving.
Not sure how long it will last but we are making an effort to keep the show on the road.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
You are so right, if Construction firms are shut then all there sub-contractors will shut. This is where the skills base to fix things in this Country are. If they are all at home on Furlough there will be no one to call when things break. I work for an M & E Contractor and we will probably finish Friday. We are contractors to Council's, they are panicking now as they know they will have no one to call. Remember most Councils sub-contract out all their maintenance/ improvement works, if these companies are shut who is going to do the work?
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
The simple answer is that is simply moving up the tree - starting with 2, instead of 1.
The true answer would depend on things like saturation - how quickly does the infection get to all the cells in the neighbourhood, so runs out of new cells to infect.
At this point you need a highly trained clinical researcher.
That would seem to indicate that excepting cases (appreciate this is most) where the virus is multiplying in the bloodstream, there may still be a mechanism whereby heavy exposure (or 'viral load) can influence not just the likelihood, but the severity of a viral infection.
This virus is replicating in the nose and lungs, not in the bloodstream, according to the Washington Post - which seems to be intuitively right, since you might as well breed in the place you live and work.
Did you mean to say breed? I think breeding in your workplace is only done in some highly specialised professions. Like my father’s.
I am assuming viruses work from home, setting us an example.
Not going to hazard a guess about your father.
Dairy farmer
Reminds me, why is skimmed milk becoming o scarce now? 2 small containers in M&S at opening time, Tesco stopped stocking it.
They have decided to reduce the number of SKEWs to increase production.
Stock Keeping Ewnits?
I doubt they would reduce skimmed milk on that basis, given it is a staple and many people can't safely up their fat intake. It freezes better than green or blue, which may have something to do with it.
It seems a bit early to me, it could be just a blip. I'm also hearing reports that both swabs and chemicals needed for testing are in short supply (as well as the labs operating at capacity), so the number of tests might be going down, or at least stopped increasing. Without testing numbers it's harder to see what's happening.
Can we trust the data on Germany on worldometer?
eg it still says Germany has only 23 critical cases.
it says UK has 20, so I think we just ignore the whole critical column.
Yes I would ignore the critical case data but Germany is not in a bad place. They test much more than others so the number of cases is misleading compared to other countries.
On testing the whole supply chain is struggling. You need swabs, virus transport media, COVID 19 PCR reagent and a PCR. It has taken my team 2 weeks to get the materials available so we can switch our PCR machine to test for COVID 19. The positive note is that most of the sourcing can be done in the UK. We are in a better place than others.
The next week will be critical to see how bad this is going to be. Most of Europe like where I am in Scotland will avoid any major outbreak but the attention in the UK will move to London where we have a potential for a hot spot.
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
The simple answer is that is simply moving up the tree - starting with 2, instead of 1.
The true answer would depend on things like saturation - how quickly does the infection get to all the cells in the neighbourhood, so runs out of new cells to infect.
At this point you need a highly trained clinical researcher.
That would seem to indicate that excepting cases (appreciate this is most) where the virus is multiplying in the bloodstream, there may still be a mechanism whereby heavy exposure (or 'viral load) can influence not just the likelihood, but the severity of a viral infection.
This virus is replicating in the nose and lungs, not in the bloodstream, according to the Washington Post - which seems to be intuitively right, since you might as well breed in the place you live and work.
Did you mean to say breed? I think breeding in your workplace is only done in some highly specialised professions. Like my father’s.
I am assuming viruses work from home, setting us an example.
Not going to hazard a guess about your father.
Dairy farmer
Reminds me, why is skimmed milk becoming o scarce now? 2 small containers in M&S at opening time, Tesco stopped stocking it.
They have decided to reduce the number of SKEWs to increase production.
Stock Keeping Ewnits?
I doubt they would reduce skimmed milk on that basis, given it is a staple and many people can't safely up their fat intake. It freezes better than green or blue, which may have something to do with it.
Tesco is clearing its fridges of skimmed milk as part of a stripped-back product range to prioritise essential items during the coronavirus lockdown.
Skimmed milk-drinking customers will soon be forced to choose between either whole milk or semi-skimmed milk. Fresh milk will also only be sold in two or four pint milk cartons as the shop phases out the less in-demand one and six-pint cartons to create space.
Multi-pack items have also been refined to allow manufacturers to focus on pumping out one product.
It seems a bit early to me, it could be just a blip. I'm also hearing reports that both swabs and chemicals needed for testing are in short supply (as well as the labs operating at capacity), so the number of tests might be going down, or at least stopped increasing. Without testing numbers it's harder to see what's happening.
Can we trust the data on Germany on worldometer?
eg it still says Germany has only 23 critical cases.
it says UK has 20, so I think we just ignore the whole critical column.
Yes I would ignore the critical case data but Germany is not in a bad place. They test much more than others so the number of cases is misleading compared to other countries.
On testing the whole supply chain is struggling. You need swabs, virus transport media, COVID 19 PCR reagent and a PCR. It has taken my team 2 weeks to get the materials available so we can switch our PCR machine to test for COVID 19. The positive note is that most of the sourcing can be done in the UK. We are in a better place than others.
The next week will be critical to see how bad this is going to be. Most of Europe like where I am in Scotland will avoid any major outbreak but the attention in the UK will move to London where we have a potential for a hot spot.
Thanks for the info - do you see the UK being able to scale up fairly rapidly moving forward? And I agree that most places will avoid hot spots (a la Lombardy), although interestingly the % of UK cases in London has been slightly declining over the past few days.
And so it has started. They can't help themselves.
To be fair this has been suggested well before the current crisis.
There is no reason why partisan politicians should be voting on recommendations of the Boundary Commission as they have a conflict.
You need to sit down, have a nice cup of tea, and think about what you're saying.
I know exactly what I am saying.
MPs vote to set the principles (no of seats, variance etc)
Boundary Commission does its work. Lots of input from various interested parties at this stage.
Final report laid before parliament.
It should be implemented automatically. Otherwise politicians with an interest can repeatedly frustrate the law. That why (I think) we ran the last general election on the 2001 constituency boundaries.
But the information used was from the 2001 census, so it was nine years out of date at the time.
They don't use numbers from the census to determine the electorates of parliamentary constituencies, they use the electorates at the time of review. Using census figures would include children and some adults who aren't eligible to vote.
I thought that using the electoral roll was brought in under Cameron? Certainly when I was working on the 2011 census I was told census data was used for electoral purposes. As I recall, it was a controversial change for precisely the reasons you state, e.g. those in constituencies with large numbers of migrants would be adversely impacted.
I know the Wikipedia article I cited says something different but then, Wikipedia also says Richard III was the rightful king of England.
Hyufd would probably know.
Polls indicate 64% approval levels for Richard III when compared to a King Edward potato so yes true that Richard III is currently the rightful king of England.
Edward IV was a lardbucket rather than a potato.
But it was after he'd had his chips that Richard usurped the throne.
Neither sounds very a-peeling to me, to be honest.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
Relatedly, here’s some optimism from Germany (Holland is reporting the same slowing)
If we end up with numbers like a bad flu outbreak, there will be the mother of all rows between those saying We shouldn’t have shut the economy for a flu, and those saying It’s because we shut the economy that it feels like a flu
And then we will all wait for that second wave in the winter.
A bad flu outbreak is around 50,000 extra deaths. Do you think we will reach that?
Crikey, 170,000 people have signed up for the volunteering scheme in 15hrs.
It is figures like that and the NHS returners which mean far more than the negativity on Twitter and elsewhere. Down here in rural Andalucia even with very few cases the great majority of people are in total compliance.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
Relatedly, here’s some optimism from Germany (Holland is reporting the same slowing)
If we end up with numbers like a bad flu outbreak, there will be the mother of all rows between those saying We shouldn’t have shut the economy for a flu, and those saying It’s because we shut the economy that it feels like a flu
And then we will all wait for that second wave in the winter.
We will also be better prepared (ventilators / testing etc) next time and can manage wave two better - so the prep work will definitely not be in vain (plus the lockdown will undoubtedly save lives and help the NHS).
Looks like not just Excel Centre going to be used, NEC and GMEX next up.
The planning must have happened a while ago - suggests that there's quite a storm to come - hopefully before the calm.
Well despite the media screaming, they have been planning since the start of January. We can agree or disagree on the speed and extent of the steps taken, but it has been planned.
I am still rather confused by the lack of a massive public advertising campaign though. We really need those 80s AIDs ads running morning, noon and night, here is Bob, he is 35, last month here he is doing a 10km park run, today....cut to him in an ICU.
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
Viruses typically replicate in the bloodstream. The issue with the lungs is a symptom (it's ARDS, but not sure of the underlying mechanistic cause. Would assume it is part of an inflammatory cascade)
The viral entry site seems to be the ACE2 receptor, which is found predominately in the lungs, but also gut and heart.
I don't think red cells express ACE2 receptors so how can the bloodstream be the main source of viral replication?
In addition red cells do not have nuclei, and are not equipped to produce RNA replication or viral proteins.
Viruses may well be distributed by bloodstream, but I cannot see them reproducing there.
I was distracted and thinking about HIV, which replicates in the white blood cells.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
You are so right, if Construction firms are shut then all there sub-contractors will shut. This is where the skills base to fix things in this Country are. If they are all at home on Furlough there will be no one to call when things break. I work for an M & E Contractor and we will probably finish Friday. We are contractors to Council's, they are panicking now as they know they will have no one to call. Remember most Councils sub-contract out all their maintenance/ improvement works, if these companies are shut who is going to do the work?
Seen in an e-mail
'I had a clear direction this morning from the Cabinet Office that confirms that construction should continue as long as it can be done safely AND in accordance with the PHE guidance. The latest CLC Site Operating Procedures (SOP) are the direction that the whole industry must follow, and they are aligned with the latest Public Health England guidance.'
So tell people to stop panicking and carry on building, so long as it can be done safely.
I also can't see why factories have to stop production if workers are typically standing say 5 metres apart.
Clearly it is a full Chinese thing, without nuance or retreat, and those who say the Americans didn’t help their own case are traitors, liars and enemies of the people.
Tesco is clearing its fridges of skimmed milk as part of a stripped-back product range to prioritise essential items during the coronavirus lockdown.
Skimmed milk-drinking customers will soon be forced to choose between either whole milk or semi-skimmed milk. Fresh milk will also only be sold in two or four pint milk cartons as the shop phases out the less in-demand one and six-pint cartons to create space.
Multi-pack items have also been refined to allow manufacturers to focus on pumping out one product.
If people have seen the Oxford paper that was in the FT and wondered what the hell all the maths meant. A decent explanation of how these models generally work.
Moth Trap News: a gin-clear night sky that went cold very quickly, far from ideal for moths, so trap* was switched off at 11pm. By then, had had a few of the hardy regulars for this time of year:
Macro Moths:
March Moth x 2 Common Quaker Twin-spotted Quaker (new for the year) Oak Beauty x 3 Early Grey x 3 Clouded Drab x 1 Water Carpet x 1
Micro moths:
Agnopterix heracliana/ciliella aggregate x 2 (many micro moths get lumped into an "aggregate" as you can't be 100% confident of identifying down to species level without dissection. Which is a bit extreme....)
The Oak Beauty is a very fine moth, extravagent antennae, and about the size of a Red Admiral:
* for any folks worried that the term "trap" signifies doom for the poor critters, rest assured. Think of it like a light lure. Most moths don't go into the trap itself, but prefer to sit around on a white sheet behind the light. The only jeapordy they face is from bats that spot a free meal (but mostly don't like the very bright light of a mercury vapour bulb) or if you don't get up before dawn, the predations of robins, tits and especially wrens, who easily get inside. Turn the light off and they mostly depart quite swiftly.
Edit: Actually not worth the black humour even at this time.
He should be OK, he is only early 70s and does not have any pre existing health condition I am aware of. However would be more of a concern for his 90 year old parents depending on when he last saw them
Ah - that is not good news - although it reminded me immendiately of the Queen mum's reaction to tne bombing of Buck Pal during the war. Hope he will be ok.
How come the Prince of Wales met the criteria for having a test? Is being Royal on the list?
Did he have an NHS test? Perhaps they used a private provider? I saw a doctor getting very angry that whole football teams were all getting tests and he wasn't, but I think they are also using private testing kits.
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
The simple answer is that is simply moving up the tree - starting with 2, instead of 1.
The true answer would depend on things like saturation - how quickly does the infection get to all the cells in the neighbourhood, so runs out of new cells to infect.
At this point you need a highly trained clinical researcher.
That would seem to indicate that excepting cases (appreciate this is most) where the virus is multiplying in the bloodstream, there may still be a mechanism whereby heavy exposure (or 'viral load) can influence not just the likelihood, but the severity of a viral infection.
This virus is replicating in the nose and lungs, not in the bloodstream, according to the Washington Post - which seems to be intuitively right, since you might as well breed in the place you live and work.
Looks like not just Excel Centre going to be used, NEC and GMEX next up.
The planning must have happened a while ago - suggests that there's quite a storm to come - hopefully before the calm.
The basic design of tents of heavy duty plastic with special aircon (essentially) will be standard from tent hospital designs for disease outbreaks around the world. See Ebola etc.
Fairly easy to mass produce - the air filtration units might be a bottleneck.
Ferguson says that, under the policies that were in force earlier, the NHS would still have been overwhelmed - even with the extra critical beds available.
Now, in the light of the new measures, he says he thinks in some areas intensive care units will get very close to capacity. But over, across the nation as a whole, he says he is reasonably confident that the NHS will have the resources to copy.
Ferguson says that, under the policies that were in force earlier, the NHS would still have been overwhelmed - even with the extra critical beds available.
Now, in the light of the new measures, he says he thinks in some areas intensive care units will get very close to capacity. But over, across the nation as a whole, he says he is reasonably confident that the NHS will have the resources to copy.
Lets hope he is right.
If he is, we as a nation will have been very lucky, and will have been given the all mother of wake up calls.
The original Facebook post repeated used the phrase "VIRAL LOAD" (in capitals). It was wrong. The NHS advice is driven by probability of infection - repeated encounters with the virus increase the chance of catching the bug.
FWIW, I'm not a scientist or a doctor. But I have spent 25 years working with, advising and sitting on the boards of pharmaceutical and biotech companies. I have some familiarity with the basics.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
The simple answer is that is simply moving up the tree - starting with 2, instead of 1.
The true answer would depend on things like saturation - how quickly does the infection get to all the cells in the neighbourhood, so runs out of new cells to infect.
At this point you need a highly trained clinical researcher.
That would seem to indicate that excepting cases (appreciate this is most) where the virus is multiplying in the bloodstream, there may still be a mechanism whereby heavy exposure (or 'viral load) can influence not just the likelihood, but the severity of a viral infection.
This virus is replicating in the nose and lungs, not in the bloodstream, according to the Washington Post - which seems to be intuitively right, since you might as well breed in the place you live and work.
There are other positives to all this social isolation. Less transmission of sexual nasties like HIV, super STIs etc. Hopefully they will die off a bit thanks to lack of transmission. Also less teen pregnancies...
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
Relatedly, here’s some optimism from Germany (Holland is reporting the same slowing)
If we end up with numbers like a bad flu outbreak, there will be the mother of all rows between those saying We shouldn’t have shut the economy for a flu, and those saying It’s because we shut the economy that it feels like a flu
And then we will all wait for that second wave in the winter.
Those struggling with getting skimmed milk, even UHT milk, you can purchase milk powder in bulk from a number of online stores.
You don't actually need to ingest cow mucus.
Those filthy meat eaters are nabbing the stocks of non dairy alternatives as well. I know a few people who mock me, but when the cow juice shelves were empty stocked up on alternatives. Horrible bastards!
There are other positives to all this social isolation. Less transmission of sexual nasties like HIV, super STIs etc. Hopefully they will die off a bit thanks to lack of transmission. Also less teen pregnancies...
Report from the shopping front line in North Essex - Car parks mainly empty - Iceland only 6 people - well spaced out - staff member at door ensuring social distancing and plenty of stock - including eggs.
Ferguson says that, under the policies that were in force earlier, the NHS would still have been overwhelmed - even with the extra critical beds available.
Now, in the light of the new measures, he says he thinks in some areas intensive care units will get very close to capacity. But over, across the nation as a whole, he says he is reasonably confident that the NHS will have the resources to copy.
Lets hope he is right.
He’s been clear eyed and clinical about this all along. He was one of the first to really sound the alarm. So if he’s modestly optimistic that’s really good news.
Mr G-Tech needs up fire up that production line though. Apparently the medical lot seem happy with his scrapheap challenge design now after some alterations.
Report from the shopping front line in North Essex - Car parks mainly empty - Iceland only 6 people - well spaced out - staff member at door ensuring social distancing and plenty of stock - including eggs.
Looks like not just Excel Centre going to be used, NEC and GMEX next up.
The NEC is in a great location for it to be fair.
All the big convention centres are excellent for this - the building provides a stable ambient temperature and weather protection. Lots of power, water etc. Massive facilities for unloading, loading, re-configuring the inside. Placed for access to freight, transport.
Those struggling with getting skimmed milk, even UHT milk, you can purchase milk powder in bulk from a number of online stores.
You don't actually need to ingest cow mucus.
Those filthy meat eaters are nabbing the stocks of non dairy alternatives as well. I know a few people who mock me, but when the cow juice shelves were empty stocked up on alternatives. Horrible bastards!
At conferences, back in the dim and distant, I was known as an opportunistic vegetarian, because, if there were two buffets I always went to the veggie one, since the queue was always shorter.
It seems a bit early to me, it could be just a blip. I'm also hearing reports that both swabs and chemicals needed for testing are in short supply (as well as the labs operating at capacity), so the number of tests might be going down, or at least stopped increasing. Without testing numbers it's harder to see what's happening.
Can we trust the data on Germany on worldometer?
eg it still says Germany has only 23 critical cases.
We're only testing very severe cases here though, are they checking more mild cases ?
The critical case numbers are, and have always been obviously wrong for several countries, including Germany. Anyone quoting that 23 number is not engaging their brain. You could read a local newspaper, for example the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger reported yesterday 11 people in intensive care just in Cologne, and 3 deaths in total. It's still small numbers, but suggests 100s in intensive care nationally. BTW it also has a report from a testing lab in Cologne where they are doing 4000 tests a day, supposedly the biggest in Germany. A few weeks ago I read there were 148 labs in Germany doing Covid-19 tests.
Anyway why doesn't eadric ask if we can trust the worldometer data for the UK given that it is currently showing 20 serious critical for the UK, which is also obviously nonsense.
The deaths and confirmed cases seem accurate for Germany, they are updated more often than the RKI numbers.
Reminds me, why is skimmed milk becoming o scarce now? 2 small containers in M&S at opening time, Tesco stopped stocking it.
They have decided to reduce the number of SKEWs to increase production.
SKUs (stock keeping units)
Strategy is to reduce multiple SKUs where its a choice of pack sizes (i.e. 500m, 1 pint, 1l, 2l, 4l etc) then reduce adjacent SKUs (do the fewer people who buy 1% milk actually need that or will they buy semi-skimmed). Longer runs of fewer SKUs means less downtime for changeovers & cleandowns so more production.
Every factory will have a maximum capacity based on optimal make plans which often gets whittled away by customer orders. I've worked in a business where orders would increase massively in hot weather and we would tell the retailers which SKUs would be switched off to prioritise the higher volume ones. They're used to working this way.
This is interesting info Charles. How does it work then? My basic understanding of a virus is that it ventures in, attaches itself to its desired cells, and turns those cells into replicators of itself. It would seem to stand to reason that if you are exposed to more virus, it attaches itself to more cells, those more cells all replicate, and the virus is several stages more advanced than it would otherwise be? What you're describing sounds more like a light switch, or a sperm meeting an egg. I am happy to defer to your experience on this subject, but at first glance it seems counterintuitive.
It's not that it doesn't happen, it's that the rate of replication is so fast that it's irrelevant.
Yes - imagine the replication as a tree - say you start with 1 cell, then x cells then x * x cells....
Unless you replace the 1 with a truly staggering number of cells, you won't be starting much further "up" the tree.
Thank you, that is a helpful explanation. What about the effect different 'geographical areas' of the body? To reduce this to ludicrously simple terms, let's say Sufferer A is mildly exposed to a virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on one of his lungs. Sufferer B is heavily exposed to the virus, and it successfully begins to replicate on both of his lungs. Surely sufferer A is in an advantageous position relative to Sufferer B? He has one tree, where sufferer B has two.
Viruses typically replicate in the bloodstream. The issue with the lungs is a symptom (it's ARDS, but not sure of the underlying mechanistic cause. Would assume it is part of an inflammatory cascade)
The initial point of entry and replication for this one is the respiratory tract: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4369385/ SARS-CoV primarily infects epithelial cells within the lung. The virus is capable of entering macrophages and dendritic cells but only leads to an abortive infection [87,88]. Despite this, infection of these cell types may be important in inducing pro-inflammatory cytokines that may contribute to disease [89]. In fact, many cytokines and chemokines are produced by these cell types and are elevated in the serum of SARS-CoV infected patients [90]. The exact mechanism of lung injury and cause of severe disease in humans remains undetermined... Though it seems to be capable of widespread entry into various cell types throughout the body.
As far as the discussion of 'viral burden' is concerned, I think this started off with a misapplication of the term to the initial viral dose an uninfected individual might receive. For a small enough number of viral particles, it's perfectly possible for the body's non specific immune response (and also the passive mucosal barrier) to prevent infection. Though given how infectious this is, that number is probably quite low.
Kill All Sparrows! Had unforeseen consequences. It was reaction to a genuine issue, not wanting anyone to starve.
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
Relatedly, here’s some optimism from Germany (Holland is reporting the same slowing)
If we end up with numbers like a bad flu outbreak, there will be the mother of all rows between those saying We shouldn’t have shut the economy for a flu, and those saying It’s because we shut the economy that it feels like a flu
And then we will all wait for that second wave in the winter.
A bad flu outbreak is around 50,000 extra deaths. Do you think we will reach that?
Spain is still less than two weeks past its lockdown tho, isn’t it? So we shouldn’t expect an improvement yet?
Unfortunately there is now pressure from both the opposition and the Coalition partners for more drastic measures - Sanchez must decide this w/e. Personally, I think he has done well and should be backed rather than pressured too much at this point.
Following on from my post about reduced choice it will be fascinating to see the long term impact on some brands. A lot of brand owners spend £lots pushing the image and equity of their brand so that you pay more for it vs competitors. What we have clearly seen in recent weeks is people switching away from their regular product to alternatives based on whats available.
When consumers discover that a lot of brand USPs only really exist in the Marketing Director's ego...
How come the Prince of Wales met the criteria for having a test? Is being Royal on the list?
Probably, yes (certainly being a senior royal). Same as being someone who might come into contact with senior govt members. This is not the time to risk infecting the people running the operation.
Comments
But it was after he'd had his chips that Richard usurped the throne.
Jair Bolsonaro, has claimed he “wouldn’t feel anything” if infected with coronavirus and rubbished efforts to contain the illness with large-scale quarantines as his country’s two biggest cities went into shutdown in a desperate bid to save lives.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/bolsonaro-brazil-wouldnt-feel-anything-covid-19-attack-state-lockdowns
https://twitter.com/safecast/status/1242330463534006272
https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/health/coronavirus-what-it-means-for-you/#h-if-you-re-claiming-benefits
In fact there has been an online ID check option when registering for UC for some time but it's pretty unreliable so most opt for the face-to-face ID checks.
These have now been suspended as I understand it. I have not yet helped a client claim UC since these changes have come in so I don't know how that works in practice.
https://twitter.com/billesdaile/status/1242570101204881415?s=21
Shut the Economy! A reaction to protect the NHS, under 20k first wave covid deaths not spike of 500 thousand. But what are the unforeseen consequences?
The obvious one is further wave of panic buying making first wave look like vicars tea party, as people realise with manufacturing stopped, stocks going down, they won’t see a toilet role or tin of beans for many months to come.
Another is what you did want to keep going has to stop due to lack of resource or ability to repair. Do we rely on resource supply lines important to power generation, water purification? Oil refineries?
Will refuse start piling up, not a good sight in pandemic?
Any others you can think of?
But this guy is 63
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Cuomo
There’s quite a few hospitals here, including the relatively new purpose built Cramlington Emergency Care Hospital, so maybe there’s sufficient capacity.
Sir crazy?
Not sure how long it will last but we are making an effort to keep the show on the road.
I work for an M & E Contractor and we will probably finish Friday. We are contractors to Council's, they are panicking now as they know they will have no one to call. Remember most Councils sub-contract out all their maintenance/ improvement works, if these companies are shut who is going to do the work?
I doubt they would reduce skimmed milk on that basis, given it is a staple and many people can't safely up their fat intake. It freezes better than green or blue, which may have something to do with it.
On testing the whole supply chain is struggling. You need swabs, virus transport media, COVID 19 PCR reagent and a PCR. It has taken my team 2 weeks to get the materials available so we can switch our PCR machine to test for COVID 19. The positive note is that most of the sourcing can be done in the UK. We are in a better place than others.
The next week will be critical to see how bad this is going to be. Most of Europe like where I am in Scotland will avoid any major outbreak but the attention in the UK will move to London where we have a potential for a hot spot.
Skimmed milk-drinking customers will soon be forced to choose between either whole milk or semi-skimmed milk. Fresh milk will also only be sold in two or four pint milk cartons as the shop phases out the less in-demand one and six-pint cartons to create space.
Multi-pack items have also been refined to allow manufacturers to focus on pumping out one product.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8147701/Tesco-stops-selling-skimmed-milk-scraps-multi-buy-offers.html
The first witness is Prof Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College.
I thought he had the plague? Or is he doing this remotely?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1242677198856822784?s=20
I am still rather confused by the lack of a massive public advertising campaign though. We really need those 80s AIDs ads running morning, noon and night, here is Bob, he is 35, last month here he is doing a 10km park run, today....cut to him in an ICU.
Respiratory viruses obviously replicate elsewhere. Doh!
'I had a clear direction this morning from the Cabinet Office that confirms that construction should continue as long as it can be done safely AND in accordance with the PHE guidance. The latest CLC Site Operating Procedures (SOP) are the direction that the whole industry must follow, and they are aligned with the latest Public Health England guidance.'
So tell people to stop panicking and carry on building, so long as it can be done safely.
I also can't see why factories have to stop production if workers are typically standing say 5 metres apart.
The corollary of course is an upcoming cream shortage.
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1242761997915164673?s=20
Moth Trap News: a gin-clear night sky that went cold very quickly, far from ideal for moths, so trap* was switched off at 11pm. By then, had had a few of the hardy regulars for this time of year:
Macro Moths:
March Moth x 2
Common Quaker
Twin-spotted Quaker (new for the year)
Oak Beauty x 3
Early Grey x 3
Clouded Drab x 1
Water Carpet x 1
Micro moths:
Agnopterix heracliana/ciliella aggregate x 2
(many micro moths get lumped into an "aggregate" as you can't be 100% confident of identifying down to species level without dissection. Which is a bit extreme....)
The Oak Beauty is a very fine moth, extravagent antennae, and about the size of a Red Admiral:
https://www.ukmoths.org.uk/species/biston-strataria/
The Water Carpet is slightly smaller, but again nicely marked:
https://www.ukmoths.org.uk/species/lampropteryx-suffumata/
* for any folks worried that the term "trap" signifies doom for the poor critters, rest assured. Think of it like a light lure. Most moths don't go into the trap itself, but prefer to sit around on a white sheet behind the light. The only jeapordy they face is from bats that spot a free meal (but mostly don't like the very bright light of a mercury vapour bulb) or if you don't get up before dawn, the predations of robins, tits and especially wrens, who easily get inside. Turn the light off and they mostly depart quite swiftly.
Mothing is a great hobby for insomniacs.
However would be more of a concern for his 90 year old parents depending on when he last saw them
I can see how that may cause a number of problems.
Not good news
Hope Prince Charles is alright.
Fairly easy to mass produce - the air filtration units might be a bottleneck.
Now, in the light of the new measures, he says he thinks in some areas intensive care units will get very close to capacity. But over, across the nation as a whole, he says he is reasonably confident that the NHS will have the resources to copy.
Lets hope he is right.
All the big convention centres are excellent for this - the building provides a stable ambient temperature and weather protection. Lots of power, water etc. Massive facilities for unloading, loading, re-configuring the inside. Placed for access to freight, transport.
You could read a local newspaper, for example the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger reported yesterday 11 people in intensive care just in Cologne, and 3 deaths in total. It's still small numbers, but suggests 100s in intensive care nationally. BTW it also has a report from a testing lab in Cologne where they are doing 4000 tests a day, supposedly the biggest in Germany. A few weeks ago I read there were 148 labs in Germany doing Covid-19 tests.
Anyway why doesn't eadric ask if we can trust the worldometer data for the UK given that it is currently showing 20 serious critical for the UK, which is also obviously nonsense.
The deaths and confirmed cases seem accurate for Germany, they are updated more often than the RKI numbers.
SKUs (stock keeping units)
Strategy is to reduce multiple SKUs where its a choice of pack sizes (i.e. 500m, 1 pint, 1l, 2l, 4l etc) then reduce adjacent SKUs (do the fewer people who buy 1% milk actually need that or will they buy semi-skimmed). Longer runs of fewer SKUs means less downtime for changeovers & cleandowns so more production.
Every factory will have a maximum capacity based on optimal make plans which often gets whittled away by customer orders. I've worked in a business where orders would increase massively in hot weather and we would tell the retailers which SKUs would be switched off to prioritise the higher volume ones. They're used to working this way.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4369385/
SARS-CoV primarily infects epithelial cells within the lung. The virus is capable of entering macrophages and dendritic cells but only leads to an abortive infection [87,88]. Despite this, infection of these cell types may be important in inducing pro-inflammatory cytokines that may contribute to disease [89]. In fact, many cytokines and chemokines are produced by these cell types and are elevated in the serum of SARS-CoV infected patients [90]. The exact mechanism of lung injury and cause of severe disease in humans remains undetermined...
Though it seems to be capable of widespread entry into various cell types throughout the body.
As far as the discussion of 'viral burden' is concerned, I think this started off with a misapplication of the term to the initial viral dose an uninfected individual might receive. For a small enough number of viral particles, it's perfectly possible for the body's non specific immune response (and also the passive mucosal barrier) to prevent infection. Though given how infectious this is, that number is probably quite low.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25
When consumers discover that a lot of brand USPs only really exist in the Marketing Director's ego...