These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
CH4 News said last week there are 14 companies offering various testing kits now. However, in addition to doubts over accuracy, many have a big catch, you have to be at a certain stage of the disease (I think the company CH4 interviewed was you had to be showing symptoms and about 3-4 days into that stage), through to very recently recovered from it.
I notice on this website is says that,
"Therefore, testing of COVID-19 IgM and IgG antibodies is an effective method for the rapid identification of a current or recent COVID-19 infection."
I believe the test the egg-heads wanted was one that showed if you have ever had it, period i.e. we can test people many months down the line and still know.
It looks like the epicenter of the Corona Virus is about to move from Europe to the USA. New York is doubling cases every 3 days, and they expect the apex of infection in 2-3 weeks. After NY the focus will move to California and Washington state, both of which are running behind NY. There is also concern about a developing hot spot in Illinois, and part of Florida.
Here in Georgia we are at about 1000 cases and about 30 deaths.
I agree. Georgia’s stats are almost equal to Japan’s, and Japan took in a load from that cruise ship.
so is that good or bad?
Not good for Georgia, I’d have thought. Japan looks to have kept a lid on its growth whereas Georgia was +20% today. There’s an item in CNN’s live feed today saying one of the hospitals in Georgia is approaching crisis point.
That's Phoebe Putney down in Albany, which is a hot spot with about 1/3 of the cases in the state.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
CH4 News said last week there are 14 companies offering various testing kits now. However, in addition to doubts over accuracy, many have a big catch, you have to be at a certain stage of the disease through to very recently recovered from it.
I notice on this website is says that,
"Therefore, testing of COVID-19 IgM and IgG antibodies is an effective method for the rapid identification of a current or recent COVID-19 infection."
I believe the test the egg-heads wanted was one that showed if you have ever had it, period.
Yes, good spot. I missed that in my enthusiasm to place my order for 3.5m kits
Reports on face book that a young man aged 28 from London has died of this with no underlying health conditions - I dont do face book so can't check but i'm told he was called Adam Sullivan and as I say was 28.
In other news a child in Lancaster (CA) USA has died (13), no mention if there underlying conditions - that is from the Telegraph
I believe 2 Spanish policemen in their 30s have died from the disease, without any underlying conditions.
There must be a fairly good chance that some people in this category did in fact have underlying conditions which hadn't yet been identified.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Not quite the 50% of the Oxford model talked about for here. Obviously different stages etc etc etc.
Woah.... the interesting question is not "does 50% of the country have it", which is ridiculous, and the answer to which almost certainly "no".
The interesting question is "what is the ratio between those that have it and are entirely asymptomatic and those who are symptomatic?"
The Iceland test is interesting, because at the time of the study, there were about 200 identified cases of CV-19 in the whole country. If the 0.5% number is correct, that means that 1,800 people in the country had it but were asymptomatic, against 200 who had it and were sympotomatic.
NEVERTHELESS, I am super sceptical of these. Because (a) small number, (b) false positives, (c) asymptomatic might very well be pre-symptomatic.
I think we might very well find 50-75% of people never get noticeable symptoms. But I struggle to believe the 95+% required to have 50% of Londonders having already had it.
Is a good point, but where are you getting the 200 number from? The article mentions 473.
Because the 1,800 tests didn't all happen on one day, they happened over more than a week. So I was doing a quick and dirty averaging.
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
I thought the antibody tests were the ones that showed if someone had it?
That's right. @NickPalmer has got this wrong I believe.
Nick is right. An antibody is a blood protein produced in response to and counteracting a specific antigen - Covid-19 in this case. Essentially it’s the defence mechanism that your immune system produced to zap the virus. So if you have antibodies you have fought off the virus in the past, they they are lingering around to zap once again any virus back for a second round. That is the kind of test we have not done yet.
No, he's wrong. The quote says:
the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus
Whereas Nick said
Those are tests of whether you've got it.
This says that as of five days ago scientists were still working on it:
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
I've had a dry cough on and off since before Xmas I think. I did feel somewhat ill with it for a week or so. The genetics seem to place COVID 19 quite specifically, it was not something that has evolved away much from the animal form, but what is to say the season has been suited to species jump and two separate Coronae have made a jump. And, as is known with common cold symptom. Coronas, there can be some cross immunity between related strains.
I think I am one of those that has psychosomatic symptoms to things.
A few years ago I had a really bad cold just before Christmas. It left me with a persistent hacking cough. The cough bothered me a little but I did nothing about it until early March when my wife forced me to go to the doctors.
He said it all seemed fine but because it had gone on for so long he sent me for an X-ray. I had the X-ray and was told almost straight away that it was clear no issues.
The cough was gone within 24 hours.
Now of course I am getting the occasional cough and feeling hot. I check my temperature - normal - and the cough goes away.
I generally don't consider myself a hypochondriac but maybe sub-consciously I am. I have a hypochondriac Id.
On topic, parliament should be meeting online, it's not rocket science. We've had too much consensus already - in the last few weeks as the government was creating one of the worst failures in modern British political history the opposition was mostly coming from Rory Stewart and Jeremy Hunt. The next Labour leader should be less awful that the current one, so let's see the opposition oppose.
I have no idea where you are coming from on this but these decisions are made on the recommendations of the medical and scientific advisors to the government, agreed in Cobra attended by Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster and Khan among others, and then coordinated legislation through the HOC and implemention across the devolved adminstrations and England
I assume you do not live in the UK because if you did you would see how much the public back the government and today in North Wales on my trip to take my wife for a blood test there was near 100% compliance
There are too many outsiders across Europe and elsewhere criticising HMG when they should be dealing with their own issues on covid 19
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
I thought the antibody tests were the ones that showed if someone had it?
That's right. @NickPalmer has got this wrong I believe.
Nick is right. An antibody is a blood protein produced in response to and counteracting a specific antigen - Covid-19 in this case. Essentially it’s the defence mechanism that your immune system produced to zap the virus. So if you have antibodies you have fought off the virus in the past, they they are lingering around to zap once again any virus back for a second round. That is the kind of test we have not done yet.
No, he's wrong. The quote says:
the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus
Whereas Nick said
Those are tests of whether you've got it.
This says that as of five days ago scientists were still working on it:
The Finnish article suggests these kind of tests are almost ready. I wouldn't be surprised if the government placed an order for 3.5million kits in anticipation they would be ready soon (refundable, I would imagine!)
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
On topic, parliament should be meeting online, it's not rocket science. We've had too much consensus already - in the last few weeks as the government was creating one of the worst failures in modern British political history the opposition was mostly coming from Rory Stewart and Jeremy Hunt. The next Labour leader should be less awful that the current one, so let's see the opposition oppose.
I have no idea where you are coming from on this but these decisions are made on the recommendations of the medical and scientific advisors to the government, agreed in Cobra attended by Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster and Khan among others, and then coordinated legislation through the HOC and implemention across the devolved adminstrations and England
I assume you do not live in the UK because if you did you would see how much the public back the government and today in North Wales on my trip to take my wife for a blood test there was near 100% compliance
There are too many outsiders across Europe and elsewhere criticising HMG when they should be dealing with their own issues on covid 19
Edmund seems to be incapable of understanding that any responsible Government would be doing exactly the same thing - following the advice of its scientists. Of course that advice may be wrong but if any politician is dumb enough to ignore the advice of their medical and scientific advisors they would be quite righty crucified.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
I've had a dry cough on and off since before Xmas I think. I did feel somewhat ill with it for a week or so. The genetics seem to place COVID 19 quite specifically, it was not something that has evolved away much from the animal form, but what is to say the season has been suited to species jump and two separate Coronae have made a jump. And, as is known with common cold symptom. Coronas, there can be some cross immunity between related strains.
I think I am one of those that has psychosomatic symptoms to things.
A few years ago I had a really bad cold just before Christmas. It left me with a persistent hacking cough. The cough bothered me a little but I did nothing about it until early March when my wife forced me to go to the doctors.
He said it all seemed fine but because it had gone on for so long he sent me for an X-ray. I had the X-ray and was told almost straight away that it was clear no issues.
The cough was gone within 24 hours.
Now of course I am getting the occasional cough and feeling hot. I check my temperature - normal - and the cough goes away.
I generally don't consider myself a hypochondriac but maybe sub-consciously I am. I have a hypochondriac Id.
I used to get a persistent cough regularly. Turned out to be the ACE inhibitor (Lisinopril) I was taking for raised blood pressure. Switched to an alternative BP med and hey presto - no more coughs!
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
On topic, parliament should be meeting online, it's not rocket science. We've had too much consensus already - in the last few weeks as the government was creating one of the worst failures in modern British political history the opposition was mostly coming from Rory Stewart and Jeremy Hunt. The next Labour leader should be less awful that the current one, so let's see the opposition oppose.
I have no idea where you are coming from on this but these decisions are made on the recommendations of the medical and scientific advisors to the government, agreed in Cobra attended by Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster and Khan among others, and then coordinated legislation through the HOC and implemention across the devolved adminstrations and England
I assume you do not live in the UK because if you did you would see how much the public back the government and today in North Wales on my trip to take my wife for a blood test there was near 100% compliance
There are too many outsiders across Europe and elsewhere criticising HMG when they should be dealing with their own issues on covid 19
Edmund is partly right. Labour have largely been AWOL. Self-isolating since January, perhaps.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
On topic, parliament should be meeting online, it's not rocket science. We've had too much consensus already - in the last few weeks as the government was creating one of the worst failures in modern British political history the opposition was mostly coming from Rory Stewart and Jeremy Hunt. The next Labour leader should be less awful that the current one, so let's see the opposition oppose.
I have no idea where you are coming from on this but these decisions are made on the recommendations of the medical and scientific advisors to the government, agreed in Cobra attended by Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster and Khan among others, and then coordinated legislation through the HOC and implemention across the devolved adminstrations and England
I assume you do not live in the UK because if you did you would see how much the public back the government and today in North Wales on my trip to take my wife for a blood test there was near 100% compliance
There are too many outsiders across Europe and elsewhere criticising HMG when they should be dealing with their own issues on covid 19
Edmund is partly right. Labour have largely been AWOL. Self-isolating since January, perhaps.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.
BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
Spain seems possibly even worse than Italy.
Frightening.
What on earth do we all do, if, in a week, it seems that lockdowns do NOT work?
It’s no exaggeration to say that the next two weeks are maybe the most important for human civilization since the battle of Stalingrad, or the Battle of Britain. Or perhaps the Cuban missile crisis.
Well, the lockdown worked in Hubei and then in the rest of China. It's clearly working now in Italy.
Why wouldn't it work? Simply, if you're not spending time with other people, how are you going to catch a disease from them?
The issues with lockdowns are two-fold: (1) can people be persuaded to remain "locked up" for four to six weeks? and (2) how do you best loosen restrictions without seeing cases spike again?
A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.
BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.
Who is George Freeman?
Ex tory MP - resigned over Brexit. Not fond of Boris I suspect.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
I've had a lingering dry cough (and watering/streaming eyes) since I got a bug in December (started with shivers, a dry cough and watering eyes, then temperature of 102F for a couple of days. In bed for around two to three days with aches, pains and fever followed by a bad chest for a couple of weeks)
When it started I thought it was flu but it definitely was something different to flu.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
The two week time delay between action and effect is the killer here. It's like driving with your eyes glued to the rear view mirror.
In all probability, the number of reported new cases will peak in Spain on Sunday/Monday and then fall relatively quickly.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
Spain seems possibly even worse than Italy.
Frightening.
What on earth do we all do, if, in a week, it seems that lockdowns do NOT work?
It’s no exaggeration to say that the next two weeks are maybe the most important for human civilization since the battle of Stalingrad, or the Battle of Britain. Or perhaps the Cuban missile crisis.
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
Spain seems possibly even worse than Italy.
Frightening.
What on earth do we all do, if, in a week, it seems that lockdowns do NOT work?
It’s no exaggeration to say that the next two weeks are maybe the most important for human civilization since the battle of Stalingrad, or the Battle of Britain. Or perhaps the Cuban missile crisis.
Well, the lockdown worked in Hubei and then in the rest of China. It's clearly working now in Italy.
Why wouldn't it work? Simply, if you're not spending time with other people, how are you going to catch a disease from them?
The issues with lockdowns are two-fold: (1) can people be persuaded to remain "locked up" for four to six weeks? and (2) how do you best loosen restrictions without seeing cases spike again?
I am in optimist mood tonight. I think the Oxford model may turn out to be right.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
I hope you like pineapple pizza because if that is anything to go by....
Isn't that stuff still used?
Well what else were they going to do....say we made a mistake and throw it out?
I mean works and is effective. Perhaps less effective against one strain, but still useful against other strains.
I gather there is some debate about how effective it is....from the no better than paracetamol to the totally effective....seems those that sold it and bought it are in the first camp....others not so much
A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.
BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.
Who is George Freeman?
Conservative remainer who resigned in the Grieve group and was reinstated
This was of particular note: The Hopkins teams was impressed with China’s scrupulous measures to minimize viral transmission, “especially among health care workers,” Auwaerter said. “Such measures have successfully slowed the epidemic in China.” In contrast, failing to do so has fueled the disastrous spread of Covid-19 in Italy, physicians at a hospital in the country’s hard-hit north warned over the weekend.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
I hope you like pineapple pizza because if that is anything to go by....
Isn't that stuff still used?
Well what else were they going to do....say we made a mistake and throw it out?
I mean works and is effective. Perhaps less effective against one strain, but still useful against other strains.
I gather there is some debate about how effective it is....from the no better than paracetamol to the totally effective....seems those that sold it and bought it are in the first camp....others not so much
Yeah, it certainly doesn't look like it is settled. I can see how getting a generic "flu" medication would be much more difficult than a relatively straightforward test to see whether a specific set of antibodies is within someone's bloodstream.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
I normally spend most of each winter with a cough or sore throat, so I wouldn’t regard it as significant.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
I hope you like pineapple pizza because if that is anything to go by....
Isn't that stuff still used?
Well what else were they going to do....say we made a mistake and throw it out?
I mean works and is effective. Perhaps less effective against one strain, but still useful against other strains.
I gather there is some debate about how effective it is....from the no better than paracetamol to the totally effective....seems those that sold it and bought it are in the first camp....others not so much
Yeah, it certainly doesn't look like it is settled. I can see how getting a generic "flu" medication would be much more difficult than a relatively straightforward test to see whether a specific set of antibodies is within someone's bloodstream.
I can't tell which is true as not an area of expertise, having worked however on a project instituted by the dft which cost the country many millions however I can believe it as when we were briefed as a team on what was wanted we were all looking at each other and asking "Really? Why the hell are they paying for us to do this when its free already on the internet for anyone that wants it"
Dr Rinesh Parmar, chair of the Doctors’ Association UK, which represents grassroots medics, told the Guardian: “The longer this epidemic goes on for, if doctors feel that there is a widespread lack of personal protective equipment [PPE], then some doctors may feel they have no choice but to give up the profession they love, because they feel so abandoned by not being given the PPE that the World Health Organization recommends.
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
Spain seems possibly even worse than Italy.
Frightening.
What on earth do we all do, if, in a week, it seems that lockdowns do NOT work?
It’s no exaggeration to say that the next two weeks are maybe the most important for human civilization since the battle of Stalingrad, or the Battle of Britain. Or perhaps the Cuban missile crisis.
Well, the lockdown worked in Hubei and then in the rest of China. It's clearly working now in Italy.
Why wouldn't it work? Simply, if you're not spending time with other people, how are you going to catch a disease from them?
The issues with lockdowns are two-fold: (1) can people be persuaded to remain "locked up" for four to six weeks? and (2) how do you best loosen restrictions without seeing cases spike again?
I am in optimist mood tonight. I think the Oxford model may turn out to be right.
There are lots of asymptomatic cases - but 50% infected seems a bit at odds with what we know from the current data! But I agree with @rcs1000 that there is clear evidence from Italy that the lockdown is working there. I just hope the damage to Spain in the next 5-6 days is not too great and causes real health system meltdown (I can imagine writing the same comment in 7 days time about the UK as we will be very much in the same boat I fear).
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
Yes. The guardian writers are perverts. In the truest sense.
Who in Britain, right now, gives a tiny tiny fucklet how Macron, or Merkel, or the president of Mexico, is handling their own national pandemic emergency? Answer: no one. Because we are understandably focused on the very real possibility that tens of thousands of brits could die in the next few weeks.
The only foreign leaders we might care about are Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, because they are in charge of global superpowers and they have a very specific relationship to this awful disease.
The guardian should be nationalised as part of the anti-covid campaign, then merged into the Telegraph, to form a patriotic British newspaper called the YAY BORIS DAILY, and then all the guardian staff within it should be given assignments covering the disease inside hospitals in Milan and Madrid, 24/7
Just what a debate about a serious national crisis needs right now, Sean T ranting from his bolt hole after downing half a dozen bottles. That's really going to unite people!
NEW DELHI — India’s prime minister ordered all 1.3 billion people in the country to stay inside their homes for three weeks starting Wednesday — the biggest and most severe action undertaken anywhere to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
“There will be a total ban of coming out of your homes,” the prime minister, Narendra Modi, announced on television Tuesday night, giving Indians less than four hours’ notice before the order took effect at 12:01 a.m.
“Every state, every district, every lane, every village will be under lockdown,” Mr. Modi said.
The breadth and depth of such a challenge is staggering in a country where hundreds of millions of citizens are destitute and countless millions live in packed urban areas with poor sanitation and weak public health care.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
I've had a dry cough on and off since before Xmas I think. I did feel somewhat ill with it for a week or so. The genetics seem to place COVID 19 quite specifically, it was not something that has evolved away much from the animal form, but what is to say the season has been suited to species jump and two separate Coronae have made a jump. And, as is known with common cold symptom. Coronas, there can be some cross immunity between related strains.
I had the lurgy of some sort or other in early Feb. It cleared up after about 4 days but have had a dry cough ever since which is unusual in my case.
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
Yes. The guardian writers are perverts. In the truest sense.
Who in Britain, right now, gives a tiny tiny fucklet how Macron, or Merkel, or the president of Mexico, is handling their own national pandemic emergency? Answer: no one. Because we are understandably focused on the very real possibility that tens of thousands of brits could die in the next few weeks.
The only foreign leaders we might care about are Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, because they are in charge of global superpowers and they have a very specific relationship to this awful disease.
The guardian should be nationalised as part of the anti-covid campaign, then merged into the Telegraph, to form a patriotic British newspaper called the YAY BORIS DAILY, and then all the guardian staff within it should be given assignments covering the disease inside hospitals in Milan and Madrid, 24/7
Just what a debate about a serious national crisis needs right now, Sean T ranting from his bolt hole after downing half a dozen bottles. That's really going to unite people!
Note how millions of dead Brits has now become tens of thousands. Progress is progress.
Speculation is continuing to mount in Brazil over whether its far-right president Jair Bolsonaro has in fact been tested positive for coronavirus.
The military hospital where Bolsonaro and others were tested, in Brazil’s capital Brasília, was this week forced to hand over a list of names of the patients it had treated, amid concerns Brazil’s leader might in fact have tested positive.
But a leading Brazilian newspaper, the Folha de São Paulo, reported that two names had been omitted for reasons of official “secrecy”.
Now, another newspaper, the Correio Braziliense, has published a report claiming insiders within the presidential palace believe it is possible those two patients “could be Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and first lady”.
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
Spain seems possibly even worse than Italy.
Frightening.
What on earth do we all do, if, in a week, it seems that lockdowns do NOT work?
It’s no exaggeration to say that the next two weeks are maybe the most important for human civilization since the battle of Stalingrad, or the Battle of Britain. Or perhaps the Cuban missile crisis.
I rather think that it is.
You’re tediously autistic, but I’ll grant you this debate
This coming fortnight will be pivotal. In Spain and Italy, and maybe France, we will learn whether western attempts to copy China in Wuhan-lockdown will work.
Like Rcs my guess is they will, for now (but who knows what comes in the next wave). But if they don’t work we are confronted with a disease which will infect 30-80%, kills 1-3%, and crashes health systems, while already causing an economic contraction on a par with the Grest Depression.
I cannot think of a post Great War two week period (other than those I have described) which begins to match it.
Even in the tragic scenario, which we are all working to avoid, where we lose say 1% of people with an average age of 80 most already with serious illnesses, it is absurd hyperbole to put it up there with Nazi victories in the war or nuclear war breaking out in thr 60s.
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
Love the way ‘the rest of the world’ is actually ‘a few left wing newspapers in other countries’ and they expect us not to notice
I've skim-read the paper that the FT article refers to. I don't think it says what the article, or subsequent media reports, claim.
My reading of the paper's claim is that *if* the proportion of infections that are severe is 0.1% *then* more than 50% have already been infected, based on the number of deaths reported so far. It doesn't seem to claim, as far as I can see, that the hypothesis of only 0.1% severe infections is correct.
It also says that *if* the proportion of infections that are severe is 1% then around 30% have been infected, and if the proportion that are severe is 10% then it's only 5%ish (eyeballing the chart in the paper).
The paper concludes that, conversely, knowing the proportion of the population that have been infected will tell us the proportion of infections that are severe, and since we want to know the latter we must find out the former. A sensible conclusion, if also rather obvious. But not what is being reported.
Unless I'm misreading, there *isn't* a claim that 50% are already infected or that 0.1% is the correct rate of severe infections. Does anyone else with scientific literacy want to spend longer reading it to confirm?
I will say that I am concerned that the paper directs enquiries to some kind of PR agency, not the University. It might be because the University is very disrupted and working from home, perhaps. But it's not a good look, imo.
--AS
The above deserves re-highlighting/re-reading, as per @rcs1000's suggestion.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
I don't believe the 50% have it, and 90% are symptomless, because:
1. We're still getting 70% negatives from the CV-19 tests. Are we really expected to believe that the people being tested are less likely to have the virus than the general population?
2. When one member of a family gets it, one would expect the other members - in most cases - to be symptom-free. If a man has sympotmatic CV-19, then there'd only be a 10% chance that his wife had symptoms. Yet, (anectode alert) I see more like 50%.
Now, if you told me that 15% of London had had CV-19, and that a further 25% of people were genetically predisposed not to get it (genes, blood type, etc.), that would seem very plausible to me.
But the test doesn’t show whether you have had it, merely whether you have it now. As below, Oxford assumes many of us have recovered.
The second point would be dealt with via viral load - if you are living with a carrier you are more likely to be infected over and over, unless you are suitably careful, in a similar way to people on the cruise ship and nurses in the hospitals.
I thought @Charles demolished this 'viral load' theory on here yesterday.
He expressed a view. He didn't demolish it. There were several contrary views.
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
Yes. The guardian writers are perverts. In the truest sense.
Who in Britain, right now, gives a tiny tiny fucklet how Macron, or Merkel, or the president of Mexico, is handling their own national pandemic emergency? Answer: no one. Because we are understandably focused on the very real possibility that tens of thousands of brits could die in the next few weeks.
The only foreign leaders we might care about are Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, because they are in charge of global superpowers and they have a very specific relationship to this awful disease.
The guardian should be nationalised as part of the anti-covid campaign, then merged into the Telegraph, to form a patriotic British newspaper called the YAY BORIS DAILY, and then all the guardian staff within it should be given assignments covering the disease inside hospitals in Milan and Madrid, 24/7
The Guardian journalist asked Hannock today how many people did he think had been killed that wouldn't have been if we had a lockdown sooner.
When did you stop beating your wife....when did you stop becoming a murderer.
I’m done with these people. Guardianistas. Fuck em. I want a reckoning.
Prediction: covid 19 will make economics swing very left wing, but socio-cultural issues will skew very right. The next few years are gonna be a tough time to argue for migration, multiculturalism, etc. The ethno-state will return, along with communism. Piquant.
Well, the economic depression may well lead to Keynes economic again.
YIPPEE! You mean we'll have budget surpluses in times of economic growth?
I’ve pondered whether it will lead to permanent changes in behaviour including people WFH more, seeing more of their family, getting more involved in teaching their children, earning less, but leading more fulfilled days. I’m working 0830 to 1730 with a few short breaks a day now and it’s amazing what I pack in. A hopelessly optimistic prognosis, sure, but I have pondered it.
I’ve pondered whether it will lead to permanent changes in behaviour including people WFH more, seeing more of their family, getting more involved in teaching their children, earning less, but leading more fulfilled days. I’m working 0830 to 1730 with a few short breaks a day now and it’s amazing what I pack in. A hopelessly optimistic prognosis, sure, but I have pondered it.
As a work from homer for most of my adult life, I find it massively more efficient than going into an office.
I've skim-read the paper that the FT article refers to. I don't think it says what the article, or subsequent media reports, claim.
My reading of the paper's claim is that *if* the proportion of infections that are severe is 0.1% *then* more than 50% have already been infected, based on the number of deaths reported so far. It doesn't seem to claim, as far as I can see, that the hypothesis of only 0.1% severe infections is correct.
It also says that *if* the proportion of infections that are severe is 1% then around 30% have been infected, and if the proportion that are severe is 10% then it's only 5%ish (eyeballing the chart in the paper).
The paper concludes that, conversely, knowing the proportion of the population that have been infected will tell us the proportion of infections that are severe, and since we want to know the latter we must find out the former. A sensible conclusion, if also rather obvious. But not what is being reported.
Unless I'm misreading, there *isn't* a claim that 50% are already infected or that 0.1% is the correct rate of severe infections. Does anyone else with scientific literacy want to spend longer reading it to confirm?
I will say that I am concerned that the paper directs enquiries to some kind of PR agency, not the University. It might be because the University is very disrupted and working from home, perhaps. But it's not a good look, imo.
--AS
The above deserves re-highlighting/re-reading, as per @rcs1000's suggestion.
You only have to read the first page with the abstract of their conclusions to see that they are going much further that that.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
I've had a dry cough on and off since before Xmas I think. I did feel somewhat ill with it for a week or so. The genetics seem to place COVID 19 quite specifically, it was not something that has evolved away much from the animal form, but what is to say the season has been suited to species jump and two separate Coronae have made a jump. And, as is known with common cold symptom. Coronas, there can be some cross immunity between related strains.
I had the lurgy of some sort or other in early Feb. It cleared up after about 4 days but have had a dry cough ever since which is unusual in my case.
I am getting so many reports from friends/extended family/ ex-colleagues of the same thing. At first people thought nothing of it, now beginning to wonder...
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
The two week time delay between action and effect is the killer here. It's like driving with your eyes glued to the rear view mirror.
In all probability, the number of reported new cases will peak in Spain on Sunday/Monday and then fall relatively quickly.
Right, Sanchez has to hang on in there. The intervening fortnight is hell for governments - all the pain with no (demonstrable) gain.
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
Yes. The guardian writers are perverts. In the truest sense.
Who in Britain, right now, gives a tiny tiny fucklet how Macron, or Merkel, or the president of Mexico, is handling their own national pandemic emergency? Answer: no one. Because we are understandably focused on the very real possibility that tens of thousands of brits could die in the next few weeks.
The only foreign leaders we might care about are Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, because they are in charge of global superpowers and they have a very specific relationship to this awful disease.
The guardian should be nationalised as part of the anti-covid campaign, then merged into the Telegraph, to form a patriotic British newspaper called the YAY BORIS DAILY, and then all the guardian staff within it should be given assignments covering the disease inside hospitals in Milan and Madrid, 24/7
The Guardian journalist asked Hannock today how many people did he think had been killed that wouldn't have been if we had a lockdown sooner.
When did you stop beating your wife....when did you stop becoming a murderer.
I’m done with these people. Guardianistas. Fuck em. I want a reckoning.
Prediction: covid 19 will make economics swing very left wing, but socio-cultural issues will skew very right. The next few years are gonna be a tough time to argue for migration, multiculturalism, etc. The ethno-state will return, along with communism. Piquant.
The sort of people who dislike immigration have always been pretty left-wing on economics. They tend to like the idea of taxing the rich as much as possible, as long as it goes to people like them rather than immigrants.
This is their time. This is brexit times a billion. National socialist ethnocentrism is about to stage a big revival
It doesn’t need a revival, it was what got us Brexit. But everyone is projecting their favoured politics into the endgame of this virus it seems to me.
On topic, parliament should be meeting online, it's not rocket science. We've had too much consensus already - in the last few weeks as the government was creating one of the worst failures in modern British political history the opposition was mostly coming from Rory Stewart and Jeremy Hunt. The next Labour leader should be less awful that the current one, so let's see the opposition oppose.
I have no idea where you are coming from on this but these decisions are made on the recommendations of the medical and scientific advisors to the government, agreed in Cobra attended by Sturgeon, Drakeford, Foster and Khan among others, and then coordinated legislation through the HOC and implemention across the devolved adminstrations and England
I assume you do not live in the UK because if you did you would see how much the public back the government and today in North Wales on my trip to take my wife for a blood test there was near 100% compliance
There are too many outsiders across Europe and elsewhere criticising HMG when they should be dealing with their own issues on covid 19
You have a bunch of people dying, your economy is getting wrecked, and you are literally banned from leaving your house. In a number of countries faced with the exact same disease, with less time to plan for it, the government acted promptly to take less disruptive actions than the ones your government was eventually forced to take and these things did not happen.
Now, it's true that the countries involved are not exactly the same, and the story is not yet completely written - it could still go wrong in places that currently appear to be containing it successfully. But apparently not only can you not understand that your government may have done something wrong, apparently you believe that since British scientific advisers were involved, the government cannot have done anything wrong by definition.
You only have to read the first page with the abstract of their conclusions to see that they are going much further that that.
Can you be more specific? I do not see anything much further. Indeed the first sentence of the "results" section reads:
"Our overall approach rests on the assumption that only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness." (emphasis mine)
A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.
BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.
Who is George Freeman?
Ex tory MP - resigned over Brexit. Not fond of Boris I suspect.
Thank you. Although it was a somewhat rhetorical question
Comments
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1242577113586204672
I notice on this website is says that,
"Therefore, testing of COVID-19 IgM and IgG antibodies is an effective method for the rapid identification of a current or recent COVID-19 infection."
I believe the test the egg-heads wanted was one that showed if you have ever had it, period i.e. we can test people many months down the line and still know.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-51959558/coronavirus-sir-patrick-vallance-on-potential-for-antibody-testing
A few years ago I had a really bad cold just before Christmas. It left me with a persistent hacking cough. The cough bothered me a little but I did nothing about it until early March when my wife forced me to go to the doctors.
He said it all seemed fine but because it had gone on for so long he sent me for an X-ray. I had the X-ray and was told almost straight away that it was clear no issues.
The cough was gone within 24 hours.
Now of course I am getting the occasional cough and feeling hot. I check my temperature - normal - and the cough goes away.
I generally don't consider myself a hypochondriac but maybe sub-consciously I am. I have a hypochondriac Id.
I assume you do not live in the UK because if you did you would see how much the public back the government and today in North Wales on my trip to take my wife for a blood test there was near 100% compliance
There are too many outsiders across Europe and elsewhere criticising HMG when they should be dealing with their own issues on covid 19
https://www.devex.com/news/why-the-uk-wants-a-new-coronavirus-test-to-be-made-in-senegal-96771
Some might say that is a little optimistic
However, I wouldn't care to be in NYC or inside the M25 at the moment, my whole council area only has 10 reported cases at present (rural Scotland).
Big improvement to life quality.
In Spanish I'm afraid but the article says PM Sanchez is under pressure from coalition partners and opposition parties to close down all economic activities beyond those essential for health and welfare this w/e. He has no majority on his own and unless we see an obvious flattening of the curve by the w/e he may be forced to implement an even more drastic lockdown. The problem is that Spain is trending almost as bad as Italy and nerves are fraying.
Not our government but plenty of other ones.
I hope you like pineapple pizza because if that is anything to go by....
Beyond C-19 we need to ask ourselves what is the point of chasing ever increasing GDP growth if that leads to more 'stuff' but worse health?
Why wouldn't it work? Simply, if you're not spending time with other people, how are you going to catch a disease from them?
The issues with lockdowns are two-fold: (1) can people be persuaded to remain "locked up" for four to six weeks? and (2) how do you best loosen restrictions without seeing cases spike again?
When it started I thought it was flu but it definitely was something different to flu.
Don't think it could have been COVID-19 though.
In all probability, the number of reported new cases will peak in Spain on Sunday/Monday and then fall relatively quickly.
His Father was an MEP
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/24/covid-19-answers-doctors-turn-to-china/
This was of particular note:
The Hopkins teams was impressed with China’s scrupulous measures to minimize viral transmission, “especially among health care workers,” Auwaerter said. “Such measures have successfully slowed the epidemic in China.” In contrast, failing to do so has fueled the disastrous spread of Covid-19 in Italy, physicians at a hospital in the country’s hard-hit north warned over the weekend.
(Yes, I know that was WW1 but still...)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/doctors-threaten-to-quit-over-protective-equipment-shortage
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8148529/Coronavirus-infected-half-British-population-say-Oxford-University-experts.html
--AS
NEW DELHI — India’s prime minister ordered all 1.3 billion people in the country to stay inside their homes for three weeks starting Wednesday — the biggest and most severe action undertaken anywhere to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
“There will be a total ban of coming out of your homes,” the prime minister, Narendra Modi, announced on television Tuesday night, giving Indians less than four hours’ notice before the order took effect at 12:01 a.m.
“Every state, every district, every lane, every village will be under lockdown,” Mr. Modi said.
The breadth and depth of such a challenge is staggering in a country where hundreds of millions of citizens are destitute and countless millions live in packed urban areas with poor sanitation and weak public health care.
(NYT)
I think we know the answer unfortunately....can't I stay in the The Edgbaston instead?
I had the lurgy of some sort or other in early Feb. It cleared up after about 4 days but have had a dry cough ever since which is unusual in my case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9aCKX6awHg&feature=youtu.be
Speculation is continuing to mount in Brazil over whether its far-right president Jair Bolsonaro has in fact been tested positive for coronavirus.
The military hospital where Bolsonaro and others were tested, in Brazil’s capital Brasília, was this week forced to hand over a list of names of the patients it had treated, amid concerns Brazil’s leader might in fact have tested positive.
But a leading Brazilian newspaper, the Folha de São Paulo, reported that two names had been omitted for reasons of official “secrecy”.
Now, another newspaper, the Correio Braziliense, has published a report claiming insiders within the presidential palace believe it is possible those two patients “could be Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro and first lady”.
I wonder if he rocked up to Newsnight in his Morgan?
Stay safe all.
Maybe that is why HYUFD and I have our disagreements, even though we are both in the conservative party
Now, it's true that the countries involved are not exactly the same, and the story is not yet completely written - it could still go wrong in places that currently appear to be containing it successfully. But apparently not only can you not understand that your government may have done something wrong, apparently you believe that since British scientific advisers were involved, the government cannot have done anything wrong by definition.
"Our overall approach rests on the assumption that only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness." (emphasis mine)
--AS