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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A national emergency and a restricted parliament make a National Government essential

If the Covid-19 virus were a sentient enemy, we’d credit it with having pulled off a rather neat trick. The scale of the crisis calls for the government to be granted extraordinary powers with which to combat that enemy: to be able to close down large parts of economic and social life – yet that abundance of power must come almost unchecked by parliamentary oversight because the nature of the virus itself means that it’s unsafe for more than a handful of MPs to be present in the Commons at any one time. Inevitably, there must be concerns at such an imbalance.

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Floater

1st

RobD

2nd 1st

TheScreamingEagles

Agree.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1242514221419675657?s=20

Alistair

Pertinent
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1242482103457062913?s=19

Casino_Royale

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

TheScreamingEagles

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1242543892404338688?s=20

tyson

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1242514221419675657?s=20

I guess the gun-toting rednecks see the virus as a way to get rid of some latte-sippers on the two coasts.

Gallowgate

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

rcs1000

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

SandyRentool

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

CatMan

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1242514221419675657?s=20

I guess the gun-toting rednecks see the virus as a way to get rid of some latte-sippers on the two coasts.

Plus aren't the places most affected at the moment in the US the God hating Democrat coastal states, not the salt of the Earth hard working America loving Republican states?

Casino_Royale

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I'm not sure.

HYUFD

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1242514221419675657?s=20

I guess the gun-toting rednecks see the virus as a way to get rid of some latte-sippers on the two coasts.

And win Trump the popular vote by default as well as the electoral college

Stark_Dawning

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

ITV?

Casino_Royale

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

It's the carefree streetparty sex I'd be looking forward to.

Were I not happily married..

HYUFD

CatMan said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1242514221419675657?s=20

I guess the gun-toting rednecks see the virus as a way to get rid of some latte-sippers on the two coasts.

Plus aren't the places most affected at the moment in the US the God hating Democrat coastal states, not the salt of the Earth hard working America loving Republican states?

Florida is hit almost as hard as New York and California, though it is a swing state more than a Republican state

tyson

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

HYUFD

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

RobD

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

felix

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.

RochdalePioneers

I just can't see why Johnson would do it

kle4

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

I have no objection whatsoever to a government of national unity (though like others I don't think Boris would so it, particularly with a hope the worst will be over in 3 months or so), but as in most cases use of the word 'mandate' seems meaningless to me. How does one get a mandate for responding to an unforeseen crisis anyway? As PM he has a general mandate to take such actions as are within his power, and any further such that parliament will deign to grant. I have no idea what 'mandate' even means, since people claim mandates for things others say they don't have, and equally reject mandates of others which are claimed, no matter how good the reasoning.

tyson

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

Anabobazina

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

I read this on the last thread and thought who’s James Mates? Starting a ‘news’ story with “disappointment is everywhere” gives some clue to the veracity of the source.

RobD

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

I'll take that as a no then.

rpjs

CatMan said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1242514221419675657?s=20

I guess the gun-toting rednecks see the virus as a way to get rid of some latte-sippers on the two coasts.

Plus aren't the places most affected at the moment in the US the God hating Democrat coastal states, not the salt of the Earth hard working America loving Republican states?

Maybe, but if you look at the Johns Hopkins site which is showing infections per US county, it's pretty clear everywhere is going to get hit.

Sunil_Prasannan

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1242543892404338688?s=20

536 cases and 10 deaths so far.

Anabobazina

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.

You are conflating a snapshot with a trend.

Benpointer

FPT:

MarqueeMark said:

SandyRentool said:

Just remembered that I didn't report back on my second trip to the gate. No human activity in the lane, but I was rewarded by hearing the call of a chiffchaff.

Yep, chiffchaffs have been singing here for a few days. Woodpeckers drumming today. Tawny owls going mad once it gets dark. Moth trap is on after a beautiful day - see if any new species have emerged.

I don't think evolution works that quickly tbh.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Pulpstar

A nat unity Gov't could work, OTOH good opposition is important now to highlight the areas where the Gov't should move further and faster. Labour have necessarily pushed the self employed situation along.

With Sturgeon echoing Boris on the daily advice and constructive critisiscm coming from the opposition, Westminster is working much better than it did about Brexit.

Floater

Atlanta USA ICU's already at full capacity - god have mercy on them

felix

OT No suggestion yet in Italy, France or Spain of Coalition or unity governments but opposition parties are being supportive. I'd expect the same in the UK - it would be disruptive to change around ministries at this point - and the latest polling suggests the public is on board. The LDs and Labour are both about to get new leaders - I do not see any case for them joining the government. The Welsh/NI/Scottish governments all seem to be acting responsibly.

Without wishing to be too churlish the suggestion comes from a header written by someone who resigned from the Tory party recently. Is this really the time to shake it all up. Not for me.

justin124

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Stark_Dawning

Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.

HYUFD

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

Sunil_Prasannan

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1242543892404338688?s=20

[India] 536 cases and 10 deaths so far.

Whoa, in neighbouring Pakistan, 972 cases, 7 deaths.

LostPassword

I cannot reconcile the Oxford report with the number of deaths we are seeing in Italy, Spain and France. Surely such an obvious comparison is not beyond the people behind it?

They wold have to be at least an order of magnitude out - easy to do once you combine two or three assumptions together. Then you might be able to say that Italy was at around 50% of the population infected, and the infection rate would slow even if they didn't have any lockdown measures.

It will be pretty clear one way or the other when the antibody test results start to come in.

kle4

felix said:

OT No suggestion yet in Italy, France or Spain of Coalition or unity governments but opposition parties are being supportive. I'd expect the same in the UK - it would be disruptive to change around ministries at this point - and the latest polling suggests the public is on board. The LDs and Labour are both about to get new leaders - I do not see any case for them joining the government. The Welsh/NI/Scottish governments all seem to be acting responsibly.

Without wishing to be too churlish the suggestion comes from a header written by someone who resigned from the Tory party recently. Is this really the time to shake it all up. Not for me.

There's also plenty of non emergency stuff which the government will quite reasonably want to get on with without disruption at some point.

MyBurningEars

My concern about a government of national unity is that it reduces scrutiny of the government and Jonathan Ashworth is doing a good job at the moment. He's been asking sensible, balanced, timely questions (as has Hunt to be fair) while the media seem to have largely abdicated their responsibility to hold the government to account.

felix

Anabobazina said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.

You are conflating a snapshot with a trend.

No I do not think so. More the case from what I can see - even if the curve flattens I am not confident it will do so quickly enough to save the health systems from being overwhelmed. The infection rate among medical staff in Spain is frightening.

James Mates reports for ITV news.

NickPalmer

The Guardian reports senior Conservatives in agreement:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/covid-coalition-government-considered-by-senior-conservatives

A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.

BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.

justin124

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

In May 1940 Chamberlain had a majority of well in excess of 200 , but decided that the national interest was best served by making way for Churchill to head a Coalition Government.

RobD

NickPalmer said:

The Guardian reports senior Conservatives in agreement:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/covid-coalition-government-considered-by-senior-conservatives

A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.

BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.

"Senior conservatives"

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

The Guardian reports senior Conservatives in agreement:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/covid-coalition-government-considered-by-senior-conservatives

A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.

BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.

They were helped by having evictions prohibited for 3 months, paying their rent goes to their landlords not them

Cyclefree

Floater said:

Atlanta USA ICU's already at full capacity - god have mercy on them

Could they commandeer private hospitals and their equipment? Or is that not an option?

Richard_Tyndall

Stark_Dawning said:

Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.

There would be a way to phrase it that would make it acceptable without making it seem like they were asking for help.

The simplest would be to say that now the Labour party had an adult back in charge they believe this is an issue with supersedes politics (it is) and just as they have had Nicola and the Welsh and NI leaders in Cobra, they believe it is only right that the Leader of the Opposition should also be included.

As an aside I have been immensely impressed with the way Sturgeon has been scrupulously careful to avoid making any political capital out of this. She has shown herself once again to be classy politician and person.

No_Offence_Alan

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

isam

Stark_Dawning said:

Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.

Why would an opposition leader who has never stood in a national election become part of a government w a 80 majority?

This GONU is just a PB wet dream I think, it’s talked about far too much

ABZ

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

That is truly numerically illiterate drivel... has he looked at the numbers from Italy at all?

Tim_B

It looks like the epicenter of the Corona Virus is about to move from Europe to the USA. New York is doubling cases every 3 days, and they expect the apex of infection in 2-3 weeks. After NY the focus will move to California and Washington state, both of which are running behind NY. There is also concern about a developing hot spot in Illinois, and part of Florida.

Here in Georgia we are at about 1000 cases and about 30 deaths.

nichomar

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

BluestBlue

Stark_Dawning said:

Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.

And quite right too. Utterly disastrous as this crisis is - and not to be wished for under any circumstances - there is potentially a huge political opportunity here for the Conservatives. If the Tory Party has the adaptability to give the nation largesse beyond the dreams of Corbynism when the situation requires it, and steady government the rest of the time, what is the point of the Labour Party?

MarqueeMark

Benpointer said:

FPT:

MarqueeMark said:

SandyRentool said:

Just remembered that I didn't report back on my second trip to the gate. No human activity in the lane, but I was rewarded by hearing the call of a chiffchaff.

Yep, chiffchaffs have been singing here for a few days. Woodpeckers drumming today. Tawny owls going mad once it gets dark. Moth trap is on after a beautiful day - see if any new species have emerged.

I don't think evolution works that quickly tbh.

I am waiting for the 700th species of moth to arrive in my garden. I might just have to cut some corners and create them instead.

ABZ

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.

Sadly, the numbers in Spain (in terms of new cases) will get worse until early next week if they follow the pattern of Italy / Wuhan before improving. It's likely going to be painful the next few days I'm afraid...

IanB2

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

On the face of it, the counter-position I guess being small sample, the possibility that some of the others had recovered, and viral load through repeated infection making the symptomatic proportion much higher. Since we know that medical staff are taking the virus particularly badly, the latter point may be the explanation, if there is any validity to the model.

Big_G_NorthWales

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

At present the public are putting their faith in Boris and I see no need for a national unity government.

However, I would invite Starmer into Cobra as this is the decision making forum,despite twitter and journalists best attempts to sow disunity

felix

NickPalmer said:

The Guardian reports senior Conservatives in agreement:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/covid-coalition-government-considered-by-senior-conservatives

A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.

BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.

The article you refer to quotes George Freeman - who resigned over Brexit and othe unmamed MPs along with Layla Moran. I think we can all see what's going on here.

Richard_Tyndall

MarqueeMark said:

Benpointer said:

FPT:

MarqueeMark said:

SandyRentool said:

Just remembered that I didn't report back on my second trip to the gate. No human activity in the lane, but I was rewarded by hearing the call of a chiffchaff.

Yep, chiffchaffs have been singing here for a few days. Woodpeckers drumming today. Tawny owls going mad once it gets dark. Moth trap is on after a beautiful day - see if any new species have emerged.

I don't think evolution works that quickly tbh.

I am waiting for the 700th species of moth to arrive in my garden. I might just have to cut some corners and create them instead.

Hi MM. What trap do you use please? I would like to do some recording myself.

Loads of wildlife out in the lower meadow today. Seems like the Blackthorn Winter has broken at last.

IshmaelZ

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

I'd ignore the "critical" number as it stayed at 15 while deaths went from 8 to 10.

RobD

felix said:

NickPalmer said:

The Guardian reports senior Conservatives in agreement:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/covid-coalition-government-considered-by-senior-conservatives

A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.

BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.

The article you refer to quotes George Freeman - who resigned over Brexit and othe unmamed MPs along with Layla Moran. I think we can all see what's going on here.

Layla Moran is a senior Tory?

BluestBlue

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

IanB2

BluestBlue said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.

And quite right too. Utterly disastrous as this crisis is - and not to be wished for under any circumstances - there is potentially a huge political opportunity here for the Conservatives. If the Tory Party has the adaptability to give the nation largesse beyond the dreams of Corbynism when the situation requires it, and steady government the rest of the time, what is the point of the Labour Party?

Perhaps. But voters don’t really do gratitude. It will come down to who has the best prospectus for the post-pandemic world, if indeed the world does emerge significantly changed.

Voters do do punishment, and the risk for the Tories in going it alone is that they carry the can for any big mistakes.

justin124

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

At present the public are putting their faith in Boris and I see no need for a national unity government.

However, I would invite Starmer into Cobra as this is the decision making forum,despite twitter and journalists best attempts to sow disunity

In late 1939 Chamberlain was performing well in Gallup polls - just as Johnson, Trump and Macron are at present.

felix

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

You mean to catch the 7% who do not support the lockdown? It is the role of the opposition MPs at this point to hold the government to account. They are being consulted extensively over the actions being taken as is the case in Spain.

Benpointer

BluestBlue said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

Party before country, eh?

IanB2

Tim_B said:

It looks like the epicenter of the Corona Virus is about to move from Europe to the USA. New York is doubling cases every 3 days, and they expect the apex of infection in 2-3 weeks. After NY the focus will move to California and Washington state, both of which are running behind NY. There is also concern about a developing hot spot in Illinois, and part of Florida.

Here in Georgia we are at about 1000 cases and about 30 deaths.

I agree. Georgia’s stats are almost equal to Japan’s, and Japan took in a load from that cruise ship.

RobD

Benpointer said:

BluestBlue said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

Party before country, eh?

The party is the country.

BluestBlue

IanB2 said:

BluestBlue said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.

And quite right too. Utterly disastrous as this crisis is - and not to be wished for under any circumstances - there is potentially a huge political opportunity here for the Conservatives. If the Tory Party has the adaptability to give the nation largesse beyond the dreams of Corbynism when the situation requires it, and steady government the rest of the time, what is the point of the Labour Party?

Perhaps. But voters don’t really do gratitude. It will come down to who has the best prospectus for the post-pandemic world, if indeed the world does emerge significantly changed.

Voters do do punishment, and the risk for the Tories in going it alone is that they carry the can for any big mistakes.

If that calculation is correct - and I'm not sayng it won't be - then Labour would be utter fools to dip their hands in the blood.

IshmaelZ

IanB2 said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

On the face of it, the counter-position I guess being small sample, the possibility that some of the others had recovered, and viral load through repeated infection making the symptomatic proportion much higher. Since we know that medical staff are taking the virus particularly badly, the latter point may be the explanation, if there is any validity to the model.

And age of passengers, and cramped crew quarters

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/03/22/what-have-scientists-learned-from-using-cruise-ship-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#1dab0246406d

felix

RobD said:

felix said:

NickPalmer said:

The Guardian reports senior Conservatives in agreement:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/covid-coalition-government-considered-by-senior-conservatives

A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.

BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.

The article you refer to quotes George Freeman - who resigned over Brexit and othe unmamed MPs along with Layla Moran. I think we can all see what's going on here.

Layla Moran is a senior Tory?

I only saw it in the article - apparently the country cannot unite without her in the mix! EDIT: I suppose she could knock a few heads together given her interesting experience.

Big_G_NorthWales

Benpointer said:

BluestBlue said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

Party before country, eh?

As long as Boris, Rishi and Hancock are in charge I see no reason to involve labour other than asking Starmer to attend Cobra

Richard_Tyndall

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,

nichomar

Benpointer said:

BluestBlue said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

Party before country, eh?

Unfortunately it looks that way.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/fifisyms/status/1242563100798304262

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1242560346373738496

felix

nichomar said:

Benpointer said:

BluestBlue said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

Party before country, eh?

Unfortunately it looks that way.

You have not suggested this for Spain although you live here. I wonder why that is.

Big_G_NorthWales

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

At present the public are putting their faith in Boris and I see no need for a national unity government.

However, I would invite Starmer into Cobra as this is the decision making forum,despite twitter and journalists best attempts to sow disunity

In late 1939 Chamberlain was performing well in Gallup polls - just as Johnson, Trump and Macron are at present.

I am only interested in the immediate future and beating covid 19.

Inevitably the fall out from this will have huge implications for all politicians and countries and nothing will be the same again

Tim_B

IanB2 said:

Tim_B said:

It looks like the epicenter of the Corona Virus is about to move from Europe to the USA. New York is doubling cases every 3 days, and they expect the apex of infection in 2-3 weeks. After NY the focus will move to California and Washington state, both of which are running behind NY. There is also concern about a developing hot spot in Illinois, and part of Florida.

Here in Georgia we are at about 1000 cases and about 30 deaths.

I agree. Georgia’s stats are almost equal to Japan’s, and Japan took in a load from that cruise ship.

so is that good or bad?

RobD

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1242560346373738496

“Boris Johnson had gone out publicly and essentially asked Britons ... to accept death,” said the Greek newspaper Ethnos. It declared him “more dangerous than coronavirus”.

Perhaps something was lost in translation. Utterly ridiculous.

tyson

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

Not really...20% infected could have been the saturation point as everyone on the ship (with a much higher median age than the general population) arguably got exposed...and as a whole population study...works out pretty much the same as the Oxford study...and equates to 0.3%...

The chaos this has inflicted on Wuhan and Lombardy when this thing gets out of control tells a different picture mind...

BluestBlue

Benpointer said:

BluestBlue said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

Party before country, eh?

You seem to think that bailing out the Labour Party from irrelevance will somehow help the country. I choose to differ.

felix

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1242560346373738496

Right on cue - haters gonna hate.

BluestBlue

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1242560346373738496

That sounds like the kind of shit the Guardian would publish during a national crisis, yes.

kle4

BluestBlue said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

That may be so, but a lack of willingness to 'rehabilitate' Labour is neither here nor there. The question is whether a GNU will add value to our response to this situation or not. It's possible. But if the government follows scientific advice, is sensible, and involves devolved administrations and opposition parties, then there may well be little value to add from the government perspective, and no urgency from opposition to desire one either. If things start to devolve, the question might need revisiting, but if they do not any need is not proven - it cannot be assumed a GNU automatically is needed or would make things better, but it should be kept on the table.

IanB2

IshmaelZ said:

IanB2 said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

On the face of it, the counter-position I guess being small sample, the possibility that some of the others had recovered, and viral load through repeated infection making the symptomatic proportion much higher. Since we know that medical staff are taking the virus particularly badly, the latter point may be the explanation, if there is any validity to the model.

And age of passengers, and cramped crew quarters

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/03/22/what-have-scientists-learned-from-using-cruise-ship-data-to-learn-about-covid-19/#1dab0246406d

And if we work from the London model, then the near cessation in China and dramatic slowing in Iran, need to be explained. The lockdown across the whole of China doesn’t look to have been as thorough as some of the media portrayals from Wuhan, and the only explanation we have is really false data.

kle4

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1242560346373738496

“Boris Johnson had gone out publicly and essentially asked Britons ... to accept death,” said the Greek newspaper Ethnos. It declared him “more dangerous than coronavirus”.

Perhaps something was lost in translation. Utterly ridiculous.

I don't remember him saying that, if it was his intention he really has gotten his messages confused!

Luckyguy1983

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Why would they do that?

Big_G_NorthWales

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1242560346373738496

“Boris Johnson had gone out publicly and essentially asked Britons ... to accept death,” said the Greek newspaper Ethnos. It declared him “more dangerous than coronavirus”.

Perhaps something was lost in translation. Utterly ridiculous.

Utter claptrap.

Maybe they should attend to their own crisis

felix

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/steverichards14/status/1242560346373738496

“Boris Johnson had gone out publicly and essentially asked Britons ... to accept death,” said the Greek newspaper Ethnos. It declared him “more dangerous than coronavirus”.

Perhaps something was lost in translation. Utterly ridiculous.

The Guardian doing it's bit for national unity at a time of crisis.

Benpointer

Richard_Tyndall said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,

On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.

Seems unlikely to me.

Anabobazina

felix said:

Anabobazina said:

felix said:

rcs1000 said:

felix said:

JAMES MATES EUROPE EDITOR

Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive.
Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed.
Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent.
It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any.
Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate.
Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.

Eh?

That's utter tosh.

The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.

Which paper?

Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.

You are conflating a snapshot with a trend.

James Mates reports for ITV news.

I googled Mates and recognise him. Prime time ramping is more his forte than dispassionate analysis of the statistics.

RobD

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Why would they do that?

A lot of things are done in coordination with the opposition.

tyson

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

BluestBlue said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

tyson said:

RobD said:

tyson said:

SandyRentool said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so.
They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.

Would you want a Govt of national unity?

I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?

I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...

What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....

Have any other countries done this?

The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....

Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.

Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered

It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.

I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.

Party before country, eh?

As long as Boris, Rishi and Hancock are in charge I see no reason to involve labour other than asking Starmer to attend Cobra

With all respect comrade....Big G...you are bit of a slobbering, slathering, sycophantic cheerleader to Tory leaders...a kind of Stepford Wives Old Boy Robocop.....it gets embarrassing after a time....

RobD

Benpointer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios

1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.

2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.

Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.

If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form

"...in some form"?

What does that mean?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1242489840068894720?s=20
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1242506668782620679?s=20

Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?

Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,

On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.

Seems unlikely to me.

Well they are right, up to 50% do have it.

Ah, pedant mode.

IanB2

Tim_B said:

IanB2 said:

Tim_B said:

It looks like the epicenter of the Corona Virus is about to move from Europe to the USA. New York is doubling cases every 3 days, and they expect the apex of infection in 2-3 weeks. After NY the focus will move to California and Washington state, both of which are running behind NY. There is also concern about a developing hot spot in Illinois, and part of Florida.

Here in Georgia we are at about 1000 cases and about 30 deaths.

I agree. Georgia’s stats are almost equal to Japan’s, and Japan took in a load from that cruise ship.

so is that good or bad?

Not good for Georgia, I’d have thought. Japan looks to have kept a lid on its growth whereas Georgia was +20% today. There’s an item in CNN’s live feed today saying one of the hospitals in Georgia is approaching crisis point.