Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
I don't see anything in it for the Tories or Labour. Why would Boris kick out half his cabinet to rehabilitate Labour and give Starmer instant status? On the other hand if the Government is later found to have mishandled things and caused unnecessary deaths why would Labour want to give the Tories political cover in a GONU? How long would such a government last and how would it be dissolved? Another election or does Boris just sack the non-Tories after the pandemic has passed?
Even ROI is still managing the crisis with a caretaker government and hung Dail, whereas Boris already has a 80 seat majority and the acquiescence of the opposition for the time being.
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
As long as Boris, Rishi and Hancock are in charge I see no reason to involve labour other than asking Starmer to attend Cobra
I agree. Starmer should attend COBRA in the same way Nicola does and have access to the relevant information and advice. There is absolutely no need to have him or anyone from Labour in the government.
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
Party for country. The Government is acting on the best scientific advice available. Quite what utilising the 'talent' from the opposition benches would add escapes me.
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
Unfortunately it looks that way.
You have not suggested this for Spain although you live here. I wonder why that is.
Well we actually have a left of Centre coalition at present and I get the impression there is much more unanimity among the Spanish in relation to what the government are doing. I was actually just reacting to the OP which suggests it as an idea. You will probably retort that I’ve not suggested it because the government is left of center but it’s more to do with the obvious difficulty the UK has in accepting lockdown, would that be better accepted if from a GONU I don’t know it’s just something that should be considered. I just don’t think this should be used by anybody to promote party politics and some of the responses about destroying labour have no place in the debate.
Just remembered that I didn't report back on my second trip to the gate. No human activity in the lane, but I was rewarded by hearing the call of a chiffchaff.
Yep, chiffchaffs have been singing here for a few days. Woodpeckers drumming today. Tawny owls going mad once it gets dark. Moth trap is on after a beautiful day - see if any new species have emerged.
I don't think evolution works that quickly tbh.
I am waiting for the 700th species of moth to arrive in my garden. I might just have to cut some corners and create them instead.
Hi MM. What trap do you use please? I would like to do some recording myself.
Loads of wildlife out in the lower meadow today. Seems like the Blackthorn Winter has broken at last.
I have a couple of 125 Mercury vapour traps and a couple of actinic tubes. Actinic works better in winter/early spring. But the MV traps in warm nights in late June/early July can draw in well over a thousand moths of over 100 species. We are very fortunate here in having very little use of pesticides around us and very little background light, with a prominent location. Turns out my garden is one of the finest inland places to trap in the south of England.
The moth traps will give me something to do over the next few months. If you want to get some pointers on different moth traps, have a look at the Anglian Lepidopterists Supplies site: https://www.angleps.com/ Or you can construct one from parts.
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
As long as Boris, Rishi and Hancock are in charge I see no reason to involve labour other than asking Starmer to attend Cobra
With all respect comrade....Big G...you are bit of a slobbering, slathering, sycophantic cheerleader to Tory leaders...a kind of Stepford Wives Old Boy Robocop.....it gets embarrassing after a time....
I am not interested in your childish insults Tyson
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
Unfortunately it looks that way.
You have not suggested this for Spain although you live here. I wonder why that is.
Well we actually have a left of Centre coalition at present and I get the impression there is much more unanimity among the Spanish in relation to what the government are doing. I was actually just reacting to the OP which suggests it as an idea. You will probably retort that I’ve not suggested it because the government is left of center but it’s more to do with the obvious difficulty the UK has in accepting lockdown, would that be better accepted if from a GONU I don’t know it’s just something that should be considered. I just don’t think this should be used by anybody to promote party politics and some of the responses about destroying labour have no place in the debate.
I'll do it for him. Governments of national unity are required when right wing parties are in charge, but not when left wing ones are?
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
Monday 16th. So we still have to wait until early next week... Italy implemented their lockdown 15 days ago though (Monday 9th) so it's pretty much 2 weeks after lockdown
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
In Valencia from 15/3 for the rest of the country 17/3
A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.
BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.
The article you refer to quotes George Freeman - who resigned over Brexit and othe unmamed MPs along with Layla Moran. I think we can all see what's going on here.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
I am saddened about Diamond Princess
My wife and I spent 33 nights on her sailing from Vancouver to Alaska, Japan, Russia, South Korea and China and we have nothing but happy memories of a fantastic voyage
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
As long as Boris, Rishi and Hancock are in charge I see no reason to involve labour other than asking Starmer to attend Cobra
I broadly support what the government has done to date and I don't believe that there will be a GNU and not sure the case for it is strong at this point.
However, the rationale for having one is surely that the representatives of the 55% of the voters who did not vote for the government should be involved in the decisions at a time of national crisis.
If this gets a lot worse appeals to rally around a government that has all parties represented in it would have more weight than asking us all to rally behind the Conservative Party. Some like BluestBlue follow Trump's lead and are more interested in gaining party advantage than doing what is best for the country.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
I'm tempted to turn off the news until someone tells me that the antibody test is being rolled out. It's going to be transformative.
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
As long as Boris, Rishi and Hancock are in charge I see no reason to involve labour other than asking Starmer to attend Cobra
With all respect comrade....Big G...you are bit of a slobbering, slathering, sycophantic cheerleader to Tory leaders...a kind of Stepford Wives Old Boy Robocop.....it gets embarrassing after a time....
It looks like the epicenter of the Corona Virus is about to move from Europe to the USA. New York is doubling cases every 3 days, and they expect the apex of infection in 2-3 weeks. After NY the focus will move to California and Washington state, both of which are running behind NY. There is also concern about a developing hot spot in Illinois, and part of Florida.
Here in Georgia we are at about 1000 cases and about 30 deaths.
My feel for California is that they were earlier to implement measures than NY, and therefore I would expect the peak not to be as bad. My guess would be that the peak will be around 1 April, at around 1,500 cases per day.
That's about a quarter of the level Italy reached at its peak with a population two-thirds of Italy's. Plus, California is (a lot) younger than Italy.
Put those together, and you have not great, but a whole lot better than some other parts of the US.
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
In Valencia from 15/3 for the rest of the country 17/3
So, we should see a peak for Valencian in 3-4 days, and just under a week for the whole of Spain.
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
Unfortunately it looks that way.
You have not suggested this for Spain although you live here. I wonder why that is.
Well we actually have a left of Centre coalition at present and I get the impression there is much more unanimity among the Spanish in relation to what the government are doing. I was actually just reacting to the OP which suggests it as an idea. You will probably retort that I’ve not suggested it because the government is left of center but it’s more to do with the obvious difficulty the UK has in accepting lockdown, would that be better accepted if from a GONU I don’t know it’s just something that should be considered. I just don’t think this should be used by anybody to promote party politics and some of the responses about destroying labour have no place in the debate.
There is no evidence at this point that the country does not accept the need for lockdown. Indeed polling shows 93% support. It only started a day ago for heavens sake. Where I live in Spain there is broad support but country wide there is plenty of dissent with thousands paid out in fines.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
“Boris Johnson had gone out publicly and essentially asked Britons ... to accept death,” said the Greek newspaper Ethnos. It declared him “more dangerous than coronavirus”.
Perhaps something was lost in translation. Utterly ridiculous.
I don't remember him saying that, if it was his intention he really has gotten his messages confused!
I think he said "Labour voters. Please, do your duty for the country and contract the coronavirus. Your sacrifice will make the country stronger."
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
9 days ago now. I don't know when the peak will be but I do know the health services are near crisis point and as the article shows there is 14% infection rate among health service staff. I desperately hope you are right but...
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
One could be in the late stages of development and the government placed an order in anticipation.
“Boris Johnson had gone out publicly and essentially asked Britons ... to accept death,” said the Greek newspaper Ethnos. It declared him “more dangerous than coronavirus”.
Perhaps something was lost in translation. Utterly ridiculous.
I don't remember him saying that, if it was his intention he really has gotten his messages confused!
I think he said "Labour voters. Please, do your duty for the country and contract the coronavirus. Your sacrifice will make the country stronger."
Well the plan is for the young to shield the old, the "client vote"....
A Johnson/Starmer partnership would have echoes of the Churchill/Attlee combo that might appeal to Boris.
BTW, I gather that a big announcement on help for the self-employed is coming tomorrow. Which would only leave renters a the main group not significantly helped.
The article you refer to quotes George Freeman - who resigned over Brexit and othe unmamed MPs along with Layla Moran. I think we can all see what's going on here.
Layla Moran is a senior Tory?
She isn't even a senior LibDem....
I'm not even sure she calls herself a she anymore.
If David Herdson is right, and having followed his reasoned arguments for over 15 years I can say with confidence that he usually is, then Ladbrokes' & Corals' odds of 33/1 on there being a General Election in 2021 appear to offer outstanding value (as do the same odds, although not offering quite the same value available for a GE being held during 2020).
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
I'm tempted to turn off the news until someone tells me that the antibody test is being rolled out. It's going to be transformative.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
One could be in the late stages of development and the government placed an order in anticipation.
Well, I hope it's not spin and bullshit. If they are not available, it'd be better to be honest about it.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
I'm tempted to turn off the news until someone tells me that the antibody test is being rolled out. It's going to be transformative.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
One could be in the late stages of development and the government placed an order in anticipation.
Well, I hope it's not spin and bullshit. If they are not available, it'd be better to be honest about it.
There will undoubtedly be one available soon, so I don't think it's a lie.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
I don't believe the 50% have it, and 90% are symptomless, because:
1. We're still getting 70% negatives from the CV-19 tests. Are we really expected to believe that the people being tested are less likely to have the virus than the general population?
2. When one member of a family gets it, one would expect the other members - in most cases - to be symptom-free. If a man has sympotmatic CV-19, then there'd only be a 10% chance that his wife had symptoms. Yet, (anectode alert) I see more like 50%.
Now, if you told me that 15% of London had had CV-19, and that a further 25% of people were genetically predisposed not to get it (genes, blood type, etc.), that would seem very plausible to me.
I don't see anything in it for the Tories or Labour. Why would Boris kick out half his cabinet to rehabilitate Labour and give Starmer instant status? On the other hand if the Government is later found to have mishandled things and caused unnecessary deaths why would Labour want to give the Tories political cover in a GONU? How long would such a government last and how would it be dissolved? Another election or does Boris just sack the non-Tories after the pandemic has passed?
Even ROI is still managing the crisis with a caretaker government and hung Dail, whereas Boris already has a 80 seat majority and the acquiescence of the opposition for the time being.
Very well summarised. Massive risk for Boris, as well as for Starmer - who might come out of it framed as a useful idiot played by the cunning Tories, a la Clegg. Think things are going to have to get a whole lot worse for a GNU be on the cards (as much as I enjoy the acronym).
Won't happen. There's no political need for the Government to do so. They may consult with and bring Starmer closer into the tent though.
Would you want a Govt of national unity?
I remember those. Didn't we have one at the back end of last year to cancel Brexit?
I was a bit gobsmacked by Casino's flippant answer...there is no political need...
What Johnson is doing and will have to do...he has no mandate for...of course if this gets worse there needs to be a govt of national unity...it is such a no brainer to hold the country together....
Have any other countries done this?
The model was tried and tested from WW2....and although Churchill lost the GE in 1945, his ability to pull the country together was his legacy....
Indeed - but only made possible by the Opposition agreeing to serve under him. I am far from convinced that Labour would wish to join a Government headed by Johnson. He is far too divisive a figure and widely distrusted - despite his communication skills.
Boris has a majority of 80 anyway, he does not need a government of national unity, only if this situation lasted for years should it really be considered
It’s not about him needing it it’s about wether it would be best for the country. I know many of you can’t see beyond the view that this government can do no wrong but it’s worth dwelling on David’s article and think wether it may be best for the country. This is bigger than party politics and all the talents should be brought on board to gain maximum support from the public.
I'm sorry, but I don't see the need to compound a once-in-a-century plague by rehabilitating the Labour Party right after we destroyed them. Britain has faced most crises in its history without GNUs, and there's no reason why this one should be different.
Party before country, eh?
As long as Boris, Rishi and Hancock are in charge I see no reason to involve labour other than asking Starmer to attend Cobra
I broadly support what the government has done to date and I don't believe that there will be a GNU and not sure the case for it is strong at this point.
However, the rationale for having one is surely that the representatives of the 55% of the voters who did not vote for the government should be involved in the decisions at a time of national crisis.
If this gets a lot worse appeals to rally around a government that has all parties represented in it would have more weight than asking us all to rally behind the Conservative Party. Some like BluestBlue follow Trump's lead and are more interested in gaining party advantage than doing what is best for the country.
Overall I do not disagree - but I would remond you there is a lot of cross-party consultation going on now - more than would be the case normally. What is wrong at this point is for these suggestions to come from those with various axes to grind against the government on issues not related to the crisis. It leaves a sour taste in the mouth i'm afraid.
A National Unity government came about in WWII following the failure of the Norway campaign. I think, maybe, something similar happened in WWI after a shells crisis - I forget the details.
Logically, then, a coalition would be indicated if it was felt necessary to move governance on from a major failure.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
One could be in the late stages of development and the government placed an order in anticipation.
Well, I hope it's not spin and bullshit. If they are not available, it'd be better to be honest about it.
There will undoubtedly be one available soon, so I don't think it's a lie.
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
Monday 16th. So we still have to wait until early next week... Italy implemented their lockdown 15 days ago though (Monday 9th) so it's pretty much 2 weeks after lockdown
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
Doesn't the evidence from the Diamond Princess (700 infected, 10 dead 15 still critical) totally contradict the Oxford report?
Not sure. I suspect a Cruise Liner passenger contingent would slew very heavily towards the most at risk age groups so it would not be unexpected to see a larger than normal fatality and serious illness rate amongst that set,
On the closely confined Diamond Princess 712 out of 3,711 passengers and crew (19%) tested positive and yet the Oxford report asks us to believe that up to 50% of the general population have already had C-19.
Seems unlikely to me.
They were on that ship for a whole month, so the theory would have to be that those who had it with mild or no symptoms had cleared it through their system by the time they were tested.
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
One could be in the late stages of development and the government placed an order in anticipation.
Well, I hope it's not spin and bullshit. If they are not available, it'd be better to be honest about it.
There will undoubtedly be one available soon, so I don't think it's a lie.
I wish I could share your undoubtedness.
Read that report from Finland. It's just a matter of time before there is one, so seems sensible to make preparations to get them, doesn't it?
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
If the Oxford theory is right, quite possibly. I had an unusual cold myself in January but thought nothing of it. The mystery under that theory is why serious cases don’t seem to have emerged until later - they seem to assume that a very high proportion of the early cases were mild, which seems odd.
If they are right, you’d expect cases in the Italian and Spanish hotspots to start levelling off significantly fairly soon - with or without a lockdown - and to stay level as the lockdown is relaxed. Let’s see.
I've skim-read the paper that the FT article refers to. I don't think it says what the article, or subsequent media reports, claim.
My reading of the paper's claim is that *if* the proportion of infections that are severe is 0.1% *then* more than 50% have already been infected, based on the number of deaths reported so far. It doesn't seem to claim, as far as I can see, that the hypothesis of only 0.1% severe infections is correct.
It also says that *if* the proportion of infections that are severe is 1% then around 30% have been infected, and if the proportion that are severe is 10% then it's only 5%ish (eyeballing the chart in the paper).
The paper concludes that, conversely, knowing the proportion of the population that have been infected will tell us the proportion of infections that are severe, and since we want to know the latter we must find out the former. A sensible conclusion, if also rather obvious. But not what is being reported.
Unless I'm misreading, there *isn't* a claim that 50% are already infected or that 0.1% is the correct rate of severe infections. Does anyone else with scientific literacy want to spend longer reading it to confirm?
I will say that I am concerned that the paper directs enquiries to some kind of PR agency, not the University. It might be because the University is very disrupted and working from home, perhaps. But it's not a good look, imo.
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
Monday 16th. So we still have to wait until early next week... Italy implemented their lockdown 15 days ago though (Monday 9th) so it's pretty much 2 weeks after lockdown
And Italian new cases per day have probably peaked...
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Atlanta USA ICU's already at full capacity - god have mercy on them
Could they commandeer private hospitals and their equipment? Or is that not an option?
All hospitals are private in Atlanta
Reminds me of the scene in Dr Strangelove where Group Captain Mandrake tells General Buck Turgidson to shoot the soft drinks dispenser to get coins to make the telephone call to the president and Turgidson says "you'll have to answer to the PepsiCola Company of America for that".
A National Unity government came about in WWII following the failure of the Norway campaign. I think, maybe, something similar happened in WWI after a shells crisis - I forget the details.
Logically, then, a coalition would be indicated if it was felt necessary to move governance on from a major failure.
In the eyes of most of those supporting one now that major failure occurred last December. They need to get over it.
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
I don't believe the 50% have it, and 90% are symptomless, because:
1. We're still getting 70% negatives from the CV-19 tests. Are we really expected to believe that the people being tested are less likely to have the virus than the general population?
2. When one member of a family gets it, one would expect the other members - in most cases - to be symptom-free. If a man has sympotmatic CV-19, then there'd only be a 10% chance that his wife had symptoms. Yet, (anectode alert) I see more like 50%.
Now, if you told me that 15% of London had had CV-19, and that a further 25% of people were genetically predisposed not to get it (genes, blood type, etc.), that would seem very plausible to me.
But the test doesn’t show whether you have had it, merely whether you have it now. As below, Oxford assumes many of us have recovered.
The second point would be dealt with via viral load - if you are living with a carrier you are more likely to be infected over and over, unless you are suitably careful, in a similar way to people on the cruise ship and nurses in the hospitals.
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
Monday 16th. So we still have to wait until early next week... Italy implemented their lockdown 15 days ago though (Monday 9th) so it's pretty much 2 weeks after lockdown
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
As a rule, I don’t get ill. But I’ve had a cough since mid Jan. Much abated now, but notable to colleagues etc as late as last week.
Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.
And quite right too. Utterly disastrous as this crisis is - and not to be wished for under any circumstances - there is potentially a huge political opportunity here for the Conservatives.
Jesus! Is it just me? The idea that a disease which is killing hundreds - and may well, if we are unlucky, kill more - being seen as “a huge political opportunity” is quite repellent. Bad enough for Ian Lavery to say this. But I did not expect others to see it this way as well.
Overall I do not disagree - but I would remond you there is a lot of cross-party consultation going on now - more than would be the case normally. What is wrong at this point is for these suggestions to come from those with various axes to grind against the government on issues not related to the crisis. It leaves a sour taste in the mouth i'm afraid.
is that where they're coming from? The Guardian quotes all seem to be Tory backbenchers, with the Labour people saying um, well, maybe (Nandy suggests COBRA participation as a simpler solution). David H here is still basically a Conservaitve, I assume, if somewhat in exile.
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
Yes. The guardian writers are perverts. In the truest sense.
Who in Britain, right now, gives a tiny tiny fucklet how Macron, or Merkel, or the president of Mexico, is handling their own national pandemic emergency? Answer: no one. Because we are understandably focused on the very real possibility that tens of thousands of brits could die in the next few weeks.
The only foreign leaders we might care about are Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, because they are in charge of global superpowers and they have a very specific relationship to this awful disease.
The guardian should be nationalised as part of the anti-covid campaign, then merged into the Telegraph, to form a patriotic British newspaper called the YAY BORIS DAILY, and then all the guardian staff within it should be given assignments covering the disease inside hospitals in Milan and Madrid, 24/7
The Guardian journalist asked Hannock today how many people did he think had been killed that wouldn't have been if we had a lockdown sooner.
When did you stop beating your wife....when did you stop becoming a murderer.
Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.
And quite right too. Utterly disastrous as this crisis is - and not to be wished for under any circumstances - there is potentially a huge political opportunity here for the Conservatives.
Jesus! Is it just me? The idea that a disease which is killing hundreds - and may well, if we are unlucky, kill more - being seen as “a huge political opportunity” is quite repellent. Bad enough for Ian Lavery to say this. But I did not expect others to see it this way as well.
It's not just you; @BluestBlue's comments are despicable.
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Overall I do not disagree - but I would remond you there is a lot of cross-party consultation going on now - more than would be the case normally. What is wrong at this point is for these suggestions to come from those with various axes to grind against the government on issues not related to the crisis. It leaves a sour taste in the mouth i'm afraid.
is that where they're coming from? The Guardian quotes all seem to be Tory backbenchers, with the Labour people saying um, well, maybe (Nandy suggests COBRA participation as a simpler solution). David H here is still basically a Conservaitve, I assume, if somewhat in exile.
I know about Freeman but who are the other conservative mps
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
If the Oxford theory is right, quite possibly. I had an unusual cold myself in January but thought nothing of it. The mystery under that theory is why serious cases don’t seem to have emerged until later - they seem to assume that a very high proportion of the early cases were mild, which seems odd.
If they are right, you’d expect cases in the Italian and Spanish hotspots to start levelling off significantly fairly soon - with or without a lockdown - and to stay level as the lockdown is relaxed. Let’s see.
Serious cases emerging later is easy surely - all cases start mild, and some progress into serious ones.
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
Speaking as one who has made absolutely no bones in the last few days that they are not predisposed to like our current conservative party I have to say on the subject of national government
JUST ABSOLUTELY NOT
Anyone who willing stood fpr an election as a labour MP under Corbyn has already demonstrated such a huge lack of judgement I wouldn't trust them to run a whelk stall let alone let them anywhere near power
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
I thought the antibody tests were the ones that showed if someone had it?
Reports on face book that a young man aged 28 from London has died of this with no underlying health conditions - I dont do face book so can't check but i'm told he was called Adam Sullivan and as I say was 28.
In other news a child in Lancaster (CA) USA has died (13), no mention if there underlying conditions - that is from the Telegraph
I do think a national government will be useful when things start fraying, I'm talking of two scenarios
1) The lockdown is extended, far too many people think it will only last 3 weeks or something close to 12 weeks.
2) We really do flatten the curve so people get complacent and want to leave the lockdown quicker than the experts want, or if we need a second lockdown later on this year.
Which is obviously going to happen. The lockdown will end, we'll all go out and party like it's the f*cking millennium, and everyone will catch it. I can't wait to be honest.
If you believe the Oxford report today 50% of the population already has it anyway in some form
I don't believe the 50% have it, and 90% are symptomless, because:
1. We're still getting 70% negatives from the CV-19 tests. Are we really expected to believe that the people being tested are less likely to have the virus than the general population?
2. When one member of a family gets it, one would expect the other members - in most cases - to be symptom-free. If a man has sympotmatic CV-19, then there'd only be a 10% chance that his wife had symptoms. Yet, (anectode alert) I see more like 50%.
Now, if you told me that 15% of London had had CV-19, and that a further 25% of people were genetically predisposed not to get it (genes, blood type, etc.), that would seem very plausible to me.
But the test doesn’t show whether you have had it, merely whether you have it now. As below, Oxford assumes many of us have recovered.
The second point would be dealt with via viral load - if you are living with a carrier you are more likely to be infected over and over, unless you are suitably careful, in a similar way to people on the cruise ship and nurses in the hospitals.
I thought @Charles demolished this 'viral load' theory on here yesterday.
Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.
And quite right too. Utterly disastrous as this crisis is - and not to be wished for under any circumstances - there is potentially a huge political opportunity here for the Conservatives.
Jesus! Is it just me? The idea that a disease which is killing hundreds - and may well, if we are unlucky, kill more - being seen as “a huge political opportunity” is quite repellent. Bad enough for Ian Lavery to say this. But I did not expect others to see it this way as well.
Boris and Dom wouldn't countenance this. The whole point of the Red Wall strategy was to make Labour look surplus to requirements while Boris can be everyone's mate and benefactor. To suddenly concede 'Oh no, we need that Mr Starmer to help us because we're out of our depth' would blow that out of the water. Not going to happen.
And quite right too. Utterly disastrous as this crisis is - and not to be wished for under any circumstances - there is potentially a huge political opportunity here for the Conservatives.
Jesus! Is it just me? The idea that a disease which is killing hundreds - and may well, if we are unlucky, kill more - being seen as “a huge political opportunity” is quite repellent. Bad enough for Ian Lavery to say this. But I did not expect others to see it this way as well.
It's not just you; @BluestBlue's comments are despicable.
Can you read? I said 'Utterly disastrous as this crisis is - and not to be wished for under any circumstances'.
That was in response to a comment on the politics of the situation, in response to a header about the politics of the situation, FFS!
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
I thought the antibody tests were the ones that showed if someone had it?
That's right. @NickPalmer has got this wrong I believe.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
If the Oxford theory is right, quite possibly. I had an unusual cold myself in January but thought nothing of it. The mystery under that theory is why serious cases don’t seem to have emerged until later - they seem to assume that a very high proportion of the early cases were mild, which seems odd.
If they are right, you’d expect cases in the Italian and Spanish hotspots to start levelling off significantly fairly soon - with or without a lockdown - and to stay level as the lockdown is relaxed. Let’s see.
Serious cases emerging later is easy surely - all cases start mild, and some progress into serious ones.
But for those who know how and when they got it, symptoms start within a week, and become serious within two or three weeks. Average day of death for those fatal cases is around day 20, as I recall. That’s a very short window for a huge slice of the population to have caught it and had mild or no symptoms.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
I've had a dry cough on and off since before Xmas I think. I did feel somewhat ill with it for a week or so. The genetics seem to place COVID 19 quite specifically, it was not something that has evolved away much from the animal form, but what is to say the season has been suited to species jump and two separate Coronae have made a jump. And, as is known with common cold symptom. Coronas, there can be some cross immunity between related strains.
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
Yes. The guardian writers are perverts. In the truest sense.
Who in Britain, right now, gives a tiny tiny fucklet how Macron, or Merkel, or the president of Mexico, is handling their own national pandemic emergency? Answer: no one. Because we are understandably focused on the very real possibility that tens of thousands of brits could die in the next few weeks.
The only foreign leaders we might care about are Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, because they are in charge of global superpowers and they have a very specific relationship to this awful disease.
The guardian should be nationalised as part of the anti-covid campaign, then merged into the Telegraph, to form a patriotic British newspaper called the YAY BORIS DAILY, and then all the guardian staff within it should be given assignments covering the disease inside hospitals in Milan and Madrid, 24/7
The Guardian journalist asked Hannock today how many people did he think had been killed that wouldn't have been if we had a lockdown sooner.
When did you stop beating your wife....when did you stop becoming a murderer.
I’m done with these people. Guardianistas. Fuck em. I want a reckoning.
Prediction: covid 19 will make economics swing very left wing, but socio-cultural issues will skew very right. The next few years are gonna be a tough time to argue for migration, multiculturalism, etc. The ethno-state will return, along with communism. Piquant.
Well, the economic depression may well lead to Keynes economic again.
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Not quite the 50% of the Oxford model talked about for here. Obviously different stages etc etc etc.
That's barely 0.5%!!
But still interesting: would suggest, if 1% are infected at present, that 80% of cases are asymptomatic (only 0.25% of the Icelandic population has been positive). Question is, how many have had it, cleared it and are negative on the PCR test but would be positive on serology. That number will be higher most likely, but 50% seems on the very high end given what we know so far. But the notion that there are many more asymptomatic than symptomatic cases does seem quite reasonable given the Icelandic data and the data from Vo.
The Guardian has this weird idea that the rest of the world gives a f*ck about our problems at the current time. Do they really think that in the midst of a global pandemic the way we are dealing with it matters one iota? In a inverse way they have as an exaggerated sense of our importance as the Telegraph does.
Yes. The guardian writers are perverts. In the truest sense.
Who in Britain, right now, gives a tiny tiny fucklet how Macron, or Merkel, or the president of Mexico, is handling their own national pandemic emergency? Answer: no one. Because we are understandably focused on the very real possibility that tens of thousands of brits could die in the next few weeks.
The only foreign leaders we might care about are Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, because they are in charge of global superpowers and they have a very specific relationship to this awful disease.
The guardian should be nationalised as part of the anti-covid campaign, then merged into the Telegraph, to form a patriotic British newspaper called the YAY BORIS DAILY, and then all the guardian staff within it should be given assignments covering the disease inside hospitals in Milan and Madrid, 24/7
The Guardian journalist asked Hannock today how many people did he think had been killed that wouldn't have been if we had a lockdown sooner.
When did you stop beating your wife....when did you stop becoming a murderer.
I’m done with these people. Guardianistas. Fuck em. I want a reckoning.
Prediction: covid 19 will make economics swing very left wing, but socio-cultural issues will skew very right. The next few years are gonna be a tough time to argue for migration, multiculturalism, etc. The ethno-state will return, along with communism. Piquant.
The sort of people who dislike immigration have always been pretty left-wing on economics. They tend to like the idea of taxing the rich as much as possible, as long as it goes to people like them rather than immigrants.
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Not quite the 50% of the Oxford model talked about for here. Obviously different stages etc etc etc.
That's barely 0.5%!!
But still interesting: would suggest, if 1% are infected at present, that 80% of cases are asymptomatic (only 0.25% of the Icelandic population has been positive). Question is, how many have had it, cleared it and are negative on the PCR test but would be positive on serology. That number will be higher most likely, but 50% seems on the very high end given what we know so far. But the notion that there are many more asymptomatic than symptomatic cases does seem quite reasonable given the Icelandic data and the data from Vo.
I'm sorry. I'm dumb and can't read. They tested 5,000 people that had no symptoms, and 48 had coronavirus. That doesn't tell me how many are asymptomatic.
How many PBers have had a lingering dry cough? I am starting to get txts and the odd mention in phone calls from family/friends. Mild, but annoying. Sometimes has lasted since late January. One person since Xmas.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
If the Oxford theory is right, quite possibly. I had an unusual cold myself in January but thought nothing of it. The mystery under that theory is why serious cases don’t seem to have emerged until later - they seem to assume that a very high proportion of the early cases were mild, which seems odd.
If they are right, you’d expect cases in the Italian and Spanish hotspots to start levelling off significantly fairly soon - with or without a lockdown - and to stay level as the lockdown is relaxed. Let’s see.
Serious cases emerging later is easy surely - all cases start mild, and some progress into serious ones.
But for those who know how and when they got it, symptoms start within a week, and become serious within two or three weeks. Average day of death for those fatal cases is around day 20, as I recall. That’s a very short window for a huge slice of the population to have caught it and had mild or no symptoms.
It would also imply that many people got it in Jan Feb with no serious symptoms and now in March people are getting it and developing serious symptoms.
One could be in the late stages of development and the government placed an order in anticipation.
Some public health guy said on the radio maybe 2 weeks back they had one in trials back then, but that those trials wasn't entirely routine. Or something along those lines.
Presumably mass-manufacturing a bajillion tests at such short notice isn't that easy either.
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Not quite the 50% of the Oxford model talked about for here. Obviously different stages etc etc etc.
Woah.... the interesting question is not "does 50% of the country have it", which is ridiculous, and the answer to which almost certainly "no".
The interesting question is "what is the ratio between those that have it and are entirely asymptomatic and those who are symptomatic?"
The Iceland test is interesting, because at the time of the study, there were about 200 identified cases of CV-19 in the whole country. If the 0.5% number is correct, that means that 1,800 people in the country had it but were asymptomatic, against 200 who had it and were sympotomatic.
NEVERTHELESS, I am super sceptical of these. Because (a) small number, (b) false positives, (c) asymptomatic might very well be pre-symptomatic.
I think we might very well find 50-75% of people never get noticeable symptoms. But I struggle to believe the 95+% required to have 50% of Londonders having already had it.
Overall I do not disagree - but I would remond you there is a lot of cross-party consultation going on now - more than would be the case normally. What is wrong at this point is for these suggestions to come from those with various axes to grind against the government on issues not related to the crisis. It leaves a sour taste in the mouth i'm afraid.
is that where they're coming from? The Guardian quotes all seem to be Tory backbenchers, with the Labour people saying um, well, maybe (Nandy suggests COBRA participation as a simpler solution). David H here is still basically a Conservaitve, I assume, if somewhat in exile.
The only Tory named is George Freeman who resigned over Brexit. The rest are 2/3 unamed Tory MPs. The Nandy suggestion I agree with.
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
No...they are the ones that detect if you previously had it.
It is really exciting as we can instantly know if somebody is safe to be allowed out into the world.
Reports on face book that a young man aged 28 from London has died of this with no underlying health conditions - I dont do face book so can't check but i'm told he was called Adam Sullivan and as I say was 28.
In other news a child in Lancaster (CA) USA has died (13), no mention if there underlying conditions - that is from the Telegraph
I believe 2 Spanish policemen in their 30s have died from the disease, without any underlying conditions.
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Not quite the 50% of the Oxford model talked about for here. Obviously different stages etc etc etc.
That's barely 0.5%!!
But still interesting: would suggest, if 1% are infected at present, that 80% of cases are asymptomatic (only 0.25% of the Icelandic population has been positive). Question is, how many have had it, cleared it and are negative on the PCR test but would be positive on serology. That number will be higher most likely, but 50% seems on the very high end given what we know so far. But the notion that there are many more asymptomatic than symptomatic cases does seem quite reasonable given the Icelandic data and the data from Vo.
I'm sorry. I'm dumb and can't read. They tested 5,000 people that had no symptoms, and 48 had coronavirus. That doesn't tell me how many are asymptomatic.
Back to the classroom for me.
Sorry - I was a bit vague - 0.25% of people in Iceland, with symptoms, have tested positive, and this study suggests that 1% of people in Iceland, without symptoms are positive. I still find this interesting, but that's probably only me!
Sorry - I was a bit vague - 0.25% of people in Iceland, with symptoms, have tested positive, and this study suggests that 1% of people in Iceland, without symptoms are positive. I still find this interesting, but that's probably only me!
Oh, it's very interesting. That'd suggest that 80% are asymptomatic, I think?
On topic, parliament should be meeting online, it's not rocket science. We've had too much consensus already - in the last few weeks as the government was creating one of the worst failures in modern British political history the opposition was mostly coming from Rory Stewart and Jeremy Hunt. The next Labour leader should be less awful that the current one, so let's see the opposition oppose.
Sorry - I was a bit vague - 0.25% of people in Iceland, with symptoms, have tested positive, and this study suggests that 1% of people in Iceland, without symptoms are positive. I still find this interesting, but that's probably only me!
Oh, it's very interesting. That'd suggest that 80% are asymptomatic, I think?
An interesting question is whether being in very good health is the main determinant of whether or not someone has symptoms, or if other factors are also important.
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Not quite the 50% of the Oxford model talked about for here. Obviously different stages etc etc etc.
Woah.... the interesting question is not "does 50% of the country have it", which is ridiculous, and the answer to which almost certainly "no".
The interesting question is "what is the ratio between those that have it and are entirely asymptomatic and those who are symptomatic?"
The Iceland test is interesting, because at the time of the study, there were about 200 identified cases of CV-19 in the whole country. If the 0.5% number is correct, that means that 1,800 people in the country had it but were asymptomatic, against 200 who had it and were sympotomatic.
NEVERTHELESS, I am super sceptical of these. Because (a) small number, (b) false positives, (c) asymptomatic might very well be pre-symptomatic.
I think we might very well find 50-75% of people never get noticeable symptoms. But I struggle to believe the 95+% required to have 50% of Londonders having already had it.
Is a good point, but where are you getting the 200 number from? The article mentions 473.
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
Not quite the 50% of the Oxford model talked about for here. Obviously different stages etc etc etc.
Woah.... the interesting question is not "does 50% of the country have it", which is ridiculous, and the answer to which almost certainly "no".
The interesting question is "what is the ratio between those that have it and are entirely asymptomatic and those who are symptomatic?"
The Iceland test is interesting, because at the time of the study, there were about 200 identified cases of CV-19 in the whole country. If the 0.5% number is correct, that means that 1,800 people in the country had it but were asymptomatic, against 200 who had it and were sympotomatic.
NEVERTHELESS, I am super sceptical of these. Because (a) small number, (b) false positives, (c) asymptomatic might very well be pre-symptomatic.
I think we might very well find 50-75% of people never get noticeable symptoms. But I struggle to believe the 95+% required to have 50% of Londonders having already had it.
You’re being rather sloppy with your terms, though. Asymptomatic means you don’t have any noticeable symptoms. Mild symptoms means you do, but don’t seek intervention, The Oxford view relies on all those colds tons of us had at Xmas and January (which a lot of people said were unusually persistent or not like a normal cold).
Did you notice that on your maths the Iceland percentage comes out at 90%?
Sorry - I was a bit vague - 0.25% of people in Iceland, with symptoms, have tested positive, and this study suggests that 1% of people in Iceland, without symptoms are positive. I still find this interesting, but that's probably only me!
Oh, it's very interesting. That'd suggest that 80% are asymptomatic, I think?
Disappointment is everywhere as the evidence that the Europe-wide lockdown may be defeating the coronavirus remains frustratingly elusive. Nowhere will they be more disappointed than Italy, where an improving ‘trend’ has been reversed. Deaths and infections are up again, but it’s even worse in Spain, and France has seen - in percentage terms - perhaps the biggest rise in deaths relating to the virus anywhere on the continent. It’s important not to read too much into any particular day’s figures, but people have been looking for the light at the end of the tunnel, and it’s still not clear there is any. Possibly for the first time in this crisis, the worst news of the day is coming out of Spain. There are 514 more dead in the last 24 hours. 6,584 more people have contracted the virus, for the first time higher than Italy’s infection rate. Of almost 40,000 confirmed cases, 5,400 are medical workers - an astonishing 14 per cent of the total.
Eh?
That's utter tosh.
The numbers from Italy are extremely encouraging. The only reason they went up today was because Sunday was a weekend day with very few tests done. They're now at (ex-yesterday) a six day low for new cases, and in the epicenter of the virus (Lombardy) positive tests are down 40% from peak.
Which paper?
Unsure of the paper - a feed for our local radio station - but the figures for both France and Spain are not good and expected to worsen for some time yet. In the north of Spain the health service is near collapse. Not easy at the moment to be very optimistic but obviously I hope you are correct.
The issue is - and has always been - that there's a two week lag between any measure and seeing its effect.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked. Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked. Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
I'm squinting at the stats, but it looks like those countries that brought their lockdown earliest, like the Nordics, Poland, Switzerland and Asian countries outwith Hubei province get the quickest correction to infection rates. There's always some social interaction going on even in lockdown, but the correction is more effective when there's less of the population infected in the first place.
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
I thought the antibody tests were the ones that showed if someone had it?
That's right. @NickPalmer has got this wrong I believe.
Nick is right. An antibody is a blood protein produced in response to and counteracting a specific antigen - Covid-19 in this case. Essentially it’s the defence mechanism that your immune system produced to zap the virus. So if you have antibodies you have fought off the virus in the past, they they are lingering around to zap once again any virus back for a second round. That is the kind of test we have not done yet.
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
I thought the antibody tests were the ones that showed if someone had it?
That's right. @NickPalmer has got this wrong I believe.
Nick is right. An antibody is a blood protein produced in response to and counteracting a specific antigen - Covid-19 in this case. Essentially it’s the defence mechanism that your immune system produced to zap the virus. So if you have antibodies you have fought off the virus in the past, they they are lingering around to zap once again any virus back for a second round. That is the kind of test we have not done yet.
I agree with your definition but that's not what Nick said. Not that it matter too much in the great scheme of things.
Is there an antibody test or not? If not what have the government just bought 3.5m of?
From the BBC: "Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
Those are tests of whether you've got it. The Finns think they can test whether you've had it.
I thought the antibody tests were the ones that showed if someone had it?
That's right. @NickPalmer has got this wrong I believe.
Nick is right. An antibody is a blood protein produced in response to and counteracting a specific antigen - Covid-19 in this case. Essentially it’s the defence mechanism that your immune system produced to zap the virus. So if you have antibodies you have fought off the virus in the past, they they are lingering around to zap once again any virus back for a second round. That is the kind of test we have not done yet.
No, he's wrong. The quote says:
the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus
These people are offering antibody kits available for pre-order. Seems to imply they are ready now. Could be a scam I guess but looks genuine. Maybe HMG have placed a pre-order for 3.5m from them?
Reports on face book that a young man aged 28 from London has died of this with no underlying health conditions - I dont do face book so can't check but i'm told he was called Adam Sullivan and as I say was 28.
In other news a child in Lancaster (CA) USA has died (13), no mention if there underlying conditions - that is from the Telegraph
I believe 2 Spanish policemen in their 30s have died from the disease, without any underlying conditions.
Important to remember these cases are still very rare, tho. We now have hundreds of thousands of people afflicted with covid 19, so there will be statistical outliers. Nonetheless the truth is, if you are under 50 and you don’t have grave underlying conditions, you will probably be ok, even if the health system collapses.
It’s small solace for the many millions who don’t tick these boxes, however. And it’s not good news for people with other problems who might need a functioning health service between now and July
Yes. The data now clearly show this disease is particularly dangerous for the elderly and those with certain pre-existing conditions. But the toll on the health system is going to be bad for the next month in particular (with a tail after that).
Comments
Not to the public it doesn't
You are in an echo chamber
Even ROI is still managing the crisis with a caretaker government and hung Dail, whereas Boris already has a 80 seat majority and the acquiescence of the opposition for the time being.
The moth traps will give me something to do over the next few months. If you want to get some pointers on different moth traps, have a look at the Anglian Lepidopterists Supplies site: https://www.angleps.com/ Or you can construct one from parts.
Hubei implemented a lockdown. 12 days later reported new cases peaked.
Lombardy and Veneto implemented a lockdown. 13 days later new cases peaked.
Italy implemented a lockdown 12 days ago, and it looks like cases have already peaked.
When did Spain implement their lockdown?
We’ll never really know until there’s an antibody test. The Oxford theory doesn’t rely on half of us having it now - it presumes many of us had it without knowing in January and February (or even earlier).
My wife and I spent 33 nights on her sailing from Vancouver to Alaska, Japan, Russia, South Korea and China and we have nothing but happy memories of a fantastic voyage
However, the rationale for having one is surely that the representatives of the 55% of the voters who did not vote for the government should be involved in the decisions at a time of national crisis.
If this gets a lot worse appeals to rally around a government that has all parties represented in it would have more weight than asking us all to rally behind the Conservative Party. Some like BluestBlue follow Trump's lead and are more interested in gaining party advantage than doing what is best for the country.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/mark-desaulnier-pneumonia/index.html
That's about a quarter of the level Italy reached at its peak with a population two-thirds of Italy's. Plus, California is (a lot) younger than Italy.
Put those together, and you have not great, but a whole lot better than some other parts of the US.
From the BBC:
"Hancock said that the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus, and that a new testing facility in Milton Keynes had opened today."
If David Herdson is right, and having followed his reasoned arguments for over 15 years I can say with confidence that he usually is, then Ladbrokes' & Corals' odds of 33/1 on there being a General Election in 2021 appear to offer outstanding value (as do the same odds, although not offering quite the same value available for a GE being held during 2020).
As ever DYOR.
There’s not likely to be a long process of trials before the antibody test can be put in use, and Jussi Hepojoki thinks it will be available soon to start testing people locally in Finland.
Is this the Oxford theory in action?
1. We're still getting 70% negatives from the CV-19 tests. Are we really expected to believe that the people being tested are less likely to have the virus than the general population?
2. When one member of a family gets it, one would expect the other members - in most cases - to be symptom-free. If a man has sympotmatic CV-19, then there'd only be a 10% chance that his wife had symptoms. Yet, (anectode alert) I see more like 50%.
Now, if you told me that 15% of London had had CV-19, and that a further 25% of people were genetically predisposed not to get it (genes, blood type, etc.), that would seem very plausible to me.
Record day on the market and in expectation of us opening our country again
Hoping to have Americans working by Easter
He is dangerous, deluded and an utter oaf
Logically, then, a coalition would be indicated if it was felt necessary to move governance on from a major failure.
If they are right, you’d expect cases in the Italian and Spanish hotspots to start levelling off significantly fairly soon - with or without a lockdown - and to stay level as the lockdown is relaxed. Let’s see.
I've skim-read the paper that the FT article refers to. I don't think it says what the article, or subsequent media reports, claim.
My reading of the paper's claim is that *if* the proportion of infections that are severe is 0.1% *then* more than 50% have already been infected, based on the number of deaths reported so far. It doesn't seem to claim, as far as I can see, that the hypothesis of only 0.1% severe infections is correct.
It also says that *if* the proportion of infections that are severe is 1% then around 30% have been infected, and if the proportion that are severe is 10% then it's only 5%ish (eyeballing the chart in the paper).
The paper concludes that, conversely, knowing the proportion of the population that have been infected will tell us the proportion of infections that are severe, and since we want to know the latter we must find out the former. A sensible conclusion, if also rather obvious. But not what is being reported.
Unless I'm misreading, there *isn't* a claim that 50% are already infected or that 0.1% is the correct rate of severe infections. Does anyone else with scientific literacy want to spend longer reading it to confirm?
I will say that I am concerned that the paper directs enquiries to some kind of PR agency, not the University. It might be because the University is very disrupted and working from home, perhaps. But it's not a good look, imo.
--AS
If google translate is correct, as part of this work there are 40 different mutations have identified among people in Iceland, and they appear to be able to track them back to where they came from e.g. 7 people from a football match in the UK
In addition, DeCode Genetics has tested 5,571 people who did not show symptoms of the disease and who were not at risk but who volunteered to be tested. The genetics company has found 48 cases of coronavirus in which the person tested showed no symptoms of any kind.
https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/forskere-sporet-40-mutationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island
Not quite the 50% of the Oxford model talked about for here. Obviously different stages etc etc etc.
The second point would be dealt with via viral load - if you are living with a carrier you are more likely to be infected over and over, unless you are suitably careful, in a similar way to people on the cruise ship and nurses in the hospitals.
It's the conditionality that gets you..
But I’ve had a cough since mid Jan.
Much abated now, but notable to colleagues etc as late as last week.
When did you stop beating your wife....when did you stop becoming a murderer.JUST ABSOLUTELY NOT
Anyone who willing stood fpr an election as a labour MP under Corbyn has already demonstrated such a huge lack of judgement I wouldn't trust them to run a whelk stall let alone let them anywhere near power
In other news a child in Lancaster (CA) USA has died (13), no mention if there underlying conditions - that is from the Telegraph
That was in response to a comment on the politics of the situation, in response to a header about the politics of the situation, FFS!
The genetics seem to place COVID 19 quite specifically, it was not something that has evolved away much from the animal form, but what is to say the season has been suited to species jump and two separate Coronae have made a jump. And, as is known with common cold symptom. Coronas, there can be some cross immunity between related strains.
Back to the classroom for me.
Makes no sense to me.
Presumably mass-manufacturing a bajillion tests at such short notice isn't that easy either.
The interesting question is "what is the ratio between those that have it and are entirely asymptomatic and those who are symptomatic?"
The Iceland test is interesting, because at the time of the study, there were about 200 identified cases of CV-19 in the whole country. If the 0.5% number is correct, that means that 1,800 people in the country had it but were asymptomatic, against 200 who had it and were sympotomatic.
NEVERTHELESS, I am super sceptical of these. Because (a) small number, (b) false positives, (c) asymptomatic might very well be pre-symptomatic.
I think we might very well find 50-75% of people never get noticeable symptoms. But I struggle to believe the 95+% required to have 50% of Londonders having already had it.
It is really exciting as we can instantly know if somebody is safe to be allowed out into the world.
Back to the classroom for me.
Sorry - I was a bit vague - 0.25% of people in Iceland, with symptoms, have tested positive, and this study suggests that 1% of people in Iceland, without symptoms are positive. I still find this interesting, but that's probably only me!
We've had too much consensus already - in the last few weeks as the government was creating one of the worst failures in modern British political history the opposition was mostly coming from Rory Stewart and Jeremy Hunt. The next Labour leader should be less awful that the current one, so let's see the opposition oppose.
Did you notice that on your maths the Iceland percentage comes out at 90%?
Yip.
https://www.alphabiolabs.co.uk/workplace-testing-services/coronavirus-testing-kit/
the government had brought 3.5m antibody testing kits, to show whether people had had coronavirus
Whereas Nick said
Those are tests of whether you've got it.