I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
(Assuming that's true) the authorities might be able to hide the dead on a day-to-day-strict-definition basis but it's going very difficult to hide a spike from a year-on-year view. And they also risk long term repuational blowback from the population if they try.
Interesting article. Sadly when push came to shove the members said shove off to Italy.
This is a ridiculous narrative. All EU member states are facing the same situation together at the same time. Italy was just slightly ahead of the curve.
No - the fact that healthcare has never been one of the competencies is a major weakness. No strategy from the top. Selfishness rules.
Dealing with a pandemic is much more than a healthcare issue.
But the pandemic has underlined the essential weakness of the EU: it is neither fish nor fowl. It is not unified enough - a proper Federal state - to take advantage of its economies of scale, as happened in China.
And this is what the EU top bods said to the BBC in that documentary after Brexit. We aren't integrated enough, we need much closer union. And it is why a vote for Remain, wasn't a vote for the status quo.
Realistically, it is nearly impossible to react swiftly when you have 27 different nations of different size with massively different economies and political outlooks.
The Brexit-botherers are back. Sssh....you’ll wake Big G.
I have just come round from my rest and as far as the EU is concerned it has been taken over by events as each country fights it's own corner
How this shakes out I do not know but what is certain nothing is going to be the same again for the EU, it's member states, and the UK
Boris Johnson says the Government is "ramping up testing" to attempt to treat a quarter of a million people a day, as he said the UK could "turn the tide" on coronavirus in 12 weeks.
The Prime Minister said the first UK patient had entered a clinical trial for treatment of coronavirus, and the Government was hoping to invest in a new "antibody test" for the disease that would allow it to test more people.
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000," he said.
FFS...."antibody test"...that isn't the real time are you positive test...it is the one where you can tell if you had it in the past and didn't know....nobody in the world has this tech yet. It isn't the same as the test you require to use to see if you are currently positive.
That won't help test the whole of the NHS staff every day to see who is positive, only identify ones that have had it in the past. And it appears like the UK are leading on going for this approach, nobody else has it (although I think a US company say they might have something).
South Korea, 15k test a day, Germany, 10-15k tests a day, UK, 10k test a day at present, 25k in a couple of weeks. Nobody in the world can screen all their healthcare professional day in day out, the tech doesn't exist.
But that's not what Boris was talking about in the last quote, that was about existing tests. "From 5000 a day...", and as you said we're not doing 5000 antibody tests per day.
They have already done 10k+ on I think 2 or 3 occasions. Also not new, this is the number from yesterday. God journalists are having a shit war.
At 10k a day it will take nearly 3 months to test NHS patient facing staff once without testing a single patient or doing repeat tests
At 25k a day reduce that to 36 days. We really need the 250k a day Boris mentioned ages ago.
South Korea, "the gold standard", did 15k a day at peak. Germany do about 10-15k a day. Also South Korea don't do 15k a day "gold standard" tests, they did lots of faster less accurate road side ones, that were used to funnel people into the gold standard testing procedure.
Where did he say 250k a day? I have never heard him say that ever and was it a slip of the tongue. And the egg-heads definitely haven't, they have always talked about wanting to get to 25k a day.
Until there is an instant test, there is a limit to what you can do. And most of the fast tests that have been demo'ed so far aren't anywhere near accurate enough.
He said it a daily briefing here is the FT confirming he said it
They are talking about including the instant ‘anti-body’ test kits to see if you have had it in the past. That is as the egg-heads have said is a game changer. It won't tell you if you have it now though, and nobody in the world has that tech yet (at least not approved with proven accuracy that is high enough).
They aren't talking about the gold standard test to see if you are currently positive. The aim has always been 25k (other than when they had a weird few days where they decided no we won't, before U-Turning, I think after the WHO had a go at them).
The PM Briefing didnt make that clear. When do we get the 250k tests a day that Boris promised whatever type they are?.
You have gone from he didnt say it to he meant something else.
You were wrong about the former probably right about the latter but symptomatic of the Communications strategy dont you think.
No, I said he never promised 250k of the test you want for front line health workers. You keep making a ridiculous claim that the government should test all front line health workers every day or two. Nobody can do that, nobody, Germany, South Korea, nobody.
It is stupid as your x50 the cost to rent private beds.
The anti-body test is a game changers, and the UK government have been really big on this and looks like we might be the first or one of the first to get it.
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
Or......Hitler and his assertion about the master race was right along....
Or they have invested in their Healthcare system and critical care capacity in advance rather than closing 17000 acute beds in last 10 years
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
I can once again confirm that this is total bullshit. How do you imagine "Germany" is massaging the figures? My wife, who is a senior doctor in an emergency department certainly didn't get the memo, and none of the other doctors I know either. And why pick on Germany when several other countries actually have lower fatality figures? It's pure ignorant prejudice.
Also the Forbes article uses the absurd figure of "2" people in serious/critical condition which they got from Worldometer (god only knows where they got it from), without doing the most basic fact-checking or even using basic common sense to decide if that number was plausible - at that time my wife could have told them that there were 3 Covid-19 patients in intensive care just in her medium-sized hospital.
Boris Johnson says the Government is "ramping up testing" to attempt to treat a quarter of a million people a day, as he said the UK could "turn the tide" on coronavirus in 12 weeks.
The Prime Minister said the first UK patient had entered a clinical trial for treatment of coronavirus, and the Government was hoping to invest in a new "antibody test" for the disease that would allow it to test more people.
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000," he said.
FFS...."antibody test"...that isn't the real time are you positive test...it is the one where you can tell if you had it in the past and didn't know....nobody in the world has this tech yet. It isn't the same as the test you require to use to see if you are currently positive.
That won't help test the whole of the NHS staff every day to see who is positive, only identify ones that have had it in the past. And it appears like the UK are leading on going for this approach, nobody else has it (although I think a US company say they might have something).
South Korea, 15k test a day, Germany, 10-15k tests a day, UK, 10k test a day at present, 25k in a couple of weeks. Nobody in the world can screen all their healthcare professional day in day out, the tech doesn't exist.
But that's not what Boris was talking about in the last quote, that was about existing tests. "From 5000 a day...", and as you said we're not doing 5000 antibody tests per day.
Yes he is. He is talking about all types of testing. And we are doing more than 5000 a day. They did 11k on Saturday.
The government started well, but were wrong for about 3 days and I called them out, when they decided for some unknown reason from ramping up testing, to no we won't we will wait for the antibody test, and rightly got the WHO giving them both barrels.
But I have said we should be following the funnel approach of SK. Less accurate roadside test, then funnel to the gold standard one. But as I said, they were only doing max 15k in total of both tests at peak.
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
Or......Hitler and his assertion about the master race was right along....
Or they have invested in their Healthcare system and critical care capacity in advance rather than closing 17000 acute beds in last 10 years
How much would it cost to maintain a healthcare system at pandemic levels as standard operating procedure?
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
Or......Hitler and his assertion about the master race was right along....
Or they have invested in their Healthcare system and critical care capacity in advance rather than closing 17000 acute beds in last 10 years
I think it's a combination of a better equipped health service (as you say), co-morbidity counting (ie Italians are counting as Covid deaths many old people who were ready to take the plunge with something else), greater inter generational living in Italy and more elderly and people with health issues living at home, being better prepared and organised for the crisis with the additional couple of weeks, wider testing, a more disciplined populace who act on government advice, and luck- Italy had a hotspot unfolding at exactly the wrong time (as too Spain)...
I don't really think the Germans are the master race....
I was one of the pre-show contestants, Deay 16 for me.
I haven't been able to get out since an op at the beginning of Feb and as I'm shielding in what's now called the "extremely vulnerable" category this is going to drag on for many more months yet :-(
I keep thinking I'm going to be really productive and get loads done, but I need to pull myself away from the news first!!
I am similarly unproductive. However I am, bizarrely, doing lots more country walks. And eating better. And drinking less.
As a fellow writer this isolation is no different from my normal life. I live on my own, rise in the mornings after breakfast and two or three coffees plus a quick peek on here and news channels.
I start writing around 9 to 10 am depending on my mojo and halt a-Stephen King-esque 2000 words later, which is usually early afternoon. Then I siesta and read until it's time for a brisk walk or spinning workout.
After my dinner I settle down to watch something and go to bed 10pm ish.
The only variation is that once a week I'll trundle to my local M&S and buy a week's supply of food.
For me, nothing inside my home has altered.
I can't concentrate on anything seriously at the moment.
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
Or......Hitler and his assertion about the master race was right along....
Or they have invested in their Healthcare system and critical care capacity in advance rather than closing 17000 acute beds in last 10 years
Jesus, its like discussing things with an total idiot. The point is the German's have few people at the moment even in critical situation, we don't know exactly why. It is an interesting observation.
If we or any other major European country had the number of critical cases Germany had, e.g. Italy, none of the systems would be under any strain either.
One is average age of those infected, we know much younger than the places like Italy. We also know German's have been good on testing and lots of positives are for asymptotic people.
Is it perhaps that a mutation that is going around Germany is less severe than Italy or Spain for instance?
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
(Assuming that's true) the authorities might be able to hide the dead on a day-to-day-strict-definition basis but it's going very difficult to hide a spike from a year-on-year view. And they also risk long term repuational blowback from the population if they try.
Why on earth would you assume it's true? It's an absurd suggestion, (which I can also confirm is not true). Why would "the authorities" (whoever they might be) even want to hide Covid-19 deaths? And how exactly would "they" manage such a thing? There's an ugly strain of anti-German prejudice in England (some kind of weird inferiority complex maybe) - like I said before - how come nobody is suggesting Australia is massaging the figures even though they have an even lower death rate?
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
WH Smiths. They were saying they should stay open.
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
JD Sports? Don't you mean Chav Direct? WH Smiths are being total bell-ends as well.
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
Fucking bell-end. If you are driving there, no...If you live in the countryside, yes, go for a short walk. FFS, how hard is it. It really is like journalists are sitting around trying to think of every possible scenario and then say but the government aren't clear on it.
Which bit of stay at f##king home unless you really need to go out for food or medicines and a short bit of exercise is so hard to get through your thick skull.
I actually don't know how these people do any work at all. Does there boss have to give them line by line instructions for every task?
They have already done 10k+ on I think 2 or 3 occasions. Also not new, this is the number from yesterday. God journalists are having a shit war.
At 10k a day it will take nearly 3 months to test NHS patient facing staff once without testing a single patient or doing repeat tests
At 25k a day reduce that to 36 days. We really need the 250k a day Boris mentioned ages ago.
South Korea, "the gold standard", did 15k a day at peak. Germany do about 10-15k a day. Also South Korea don't do 15k a day "gold standard" tests, they did lots of faster less accurate road side ones, that were used to funnel people into the gold standard testing procedure.
Where did he say 250k a day? I have never heard him say that ever and was it a slip of the tongue. And the egg-heads definitely haven't, they have always talked about wanting to get to 25k a day.
Until there is an instant test, there is a limit to what you can do. And most of the fast tests that have been demo'ed so far aren't anywhere near accurate enough.
He said it a daily briefing here is the FT confirming he said it
They are talking about including the instant ‘anti-body’ test kits to see if you have had it in the past. That is as the egg-heads have said is a game changer. It won't tell you if you have it now though, and nobody in the world has that tech yet (at least not approved with proven accuracy that is high enough).
They aren't talking about the gold standard test to see if you are currently positive. The aim has always been 25k (other than when they had a weird few days where they decided no we won't, before U-Turning, I think after the WHO had a go at them).
The PM Briefing didnt make that clear. When do we get the 250k tests a day that Boris promised whatever type they are?.
You have gone from he didnt say it to he meant something else.
You were wrong about the former probably right about the latter but symptomatic of the Communications strategy dont you think.
No, I said he never promised 250k of the test you want for front line health workers. You keep making a ridiculous claim that the government should test all front line health workers every day or two. Nobody can do that, nobody, Germany, South Korea, nobody.
It is stupid as your x50 the cost to rent private beds.
The anti-body test is a game changers, and the UK government have been really big on this and looks like we might be the first or one of the first to get it.
He said we are ramping up from 5k to 10k to 25k then to 250k
To be honest this is a typical exchange with you. You start by claiming something wasnt said misquote what i said then avoid giving an answer.
Clearly just another typical Johnson half truth of the type that you love to defend.
You didnt say "he never promised 250k of the test you want for front line health workers" you said he didnt promise 250k tests He did in the same sentence as 5k 10k 25k
i have never suggested we test NHS staff every couple of days I said at the current rate it will take 3 months to test frontline staff once without testing a single patient. I would have thought a Dr on the frontline should be retested at some point But again you prefer to lie about what i said.
WHEN WILL WE GET THE 250,000 TESTS PROMISED WHATEVER THE TYPE
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
WH Smiths. They were saying they should stay open.
Richard Branson.
Revealed as the turd that my agent always told me his is.
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
Or......Hitler and his assertion about the master race was right along....
Or they have invested in their Healthcare system and critical care capacity in advance rather than closing 17000 acute beds in last 10 years
Jesus, its like discussing things with an total idiot. The point is the German's have few people at the moment even in critical situation, we don't know exactly why. It is an interesting observation.
If we or any other major European country had the number of critical cases Germany had, e.g. Italy, none of the systems would be under any strain either.
One is average age of those infected, we know much younger than the places like Italy. We also know German's have been good on testing and lots of positives are for asymptotic people.
Is it perhaps that a mutation that is going around Germany is less severe than Italy or Spain for instance?
I think Italy have been particularly unlucky....they provided us all with a dummy run on how a hotspot can get out of control without interventions being put in at at the right time....and Spain too.....
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
Or......Hitler and his assertion about the master race was right along....
Or they have invested in their Healthcare system and critical care capacity in advance rather than closing 17000 acute beds in last 10 years
Jesus, its like discussing things with an total idiot. The point is the German's have few people at the moment even in critical situation, we don't know exactly why. It is an interesting observation.
If we or any other major European country had the number of critical cases Germany had, e.g. Italy, none of the systems would be under any strain either.
One is average age of those infected, we know much younger than the places like Italy. We also know German's have been good on testing and lots of positives are for asymptotic people.
Is it perhaps that a mutation that is going around Germany is less severe than Italy or Spain for instance?
I can also confirm that the German health system is not yet overwhelmed, not in NRW which has the most cases. The explanation is mainly that Germany has done a lot of testing, and also many of the infections are too recent to yet be seriously ill. Expecting things to get a lot worse next week, or even the end of this week.
But the worldometers figures for people in serious/critical condition is way off. So far as I know there are no figures for numbers of critical cases in Germany.
It's also true that Germany starts off with a much bigger intensive care capacity than many countries. At the moment people are more worried about staffing (and PPE), than ICU numbers, although the number of places will probably also be an issue at the peak.
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
Or......Hitler and his assertion about the master race was right along....
Or they have invested in their Healthcare system and critical care capacity in advance rather than closing 17000 acute beds in last 10 years
Jesus, its like discussing things with an total idiot. The point is the German's have few people at the moment even in critical situation, we don't know exactly why. It is an interesting observation.
If we or any other major European country had the number of critical cases Germany had, e.g. Italy, none of the systems would be under any strain either.
One is average age of those infected, we know much younger than the places like Italy. We also know German's have been good on testing and lots of positives are for asymptotic people.
Is it perhaps that a mutation that is going around Germany is less severe than Italy or Spain for instance?
I'm 90% sure that classification of the major cause of death/severe ill health is the answer. Nothing else really makes sense. if someone has terminal cancer, for example, is the fact that he tested positive for CV really relevant? I don't think that they are doing anything sneaky, just being logical Germans.
Didn't quite a lot of Germans (and Spanish plus the odd Brit) not catch it whilst skiing in Italy? I find it very hard to believe the weaker strain theory.
Mr. Meeks, sadly, it seems the Waterstones boss wasn't winning many friends.
Daunt, I think his name is.
Is Sir Tim Waterstone still involved? He was on Desert Island Discs recently, quite an amiable old cove, if a little (perhaps deservedly) self satisfied.
Coincidentally Tim Martin was also on last year, annoyingly quite good taste in records.
They have already done 10k+ on I think 2 or 3 occasions. Also not new, this is the number from yesterday. God journalists are having a shit war.
At 10k a day it will take nearly 3 months to test NHS patient facing staff once without testing a single patient or doing repeat tests
At 25k a day reduce that to 36 days. We really need the 250k a day Boris mentioned ages ago.
South Korea, "the gold standard", did 15k a day at peak. Germany do about 10-15k a day. Also South Korea don't do 15k a day "gold standard" tests, they did lots of faster less accurate road side ones, that were used to funnel people into the gold standard testing procedure.
Where did he say 250k a day? I have never heard him say that ever and was it a slip of the tongue. And the egg-heads definitely haven't, they have always talked about wanting to get to 25k a day.
Until there is an instant test, there is a limit to what you can do. And most of the fast tests that have been demo'ed so far aren't anywhere near accurate enough.
I thought South Korea peaked at 250,000 tests of all kind in a week. But I could be wrong.
The thing about the alleged German fatality counting is that you could make a case for that approach. Anyone who would die this year anyway, without CV-19, isn't included in the figures.
Interesting article on US/Chinese trade and relations:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/coronavirus-china-masks.html Global carriers like United Airlines and Cathay Pacific have slashed international flights to near zero as countries bolster their borders. About half the world’s air cargo traveled last year in the bellies of passenger planes, said John Peyton Burnett, the managing director of TAC Index, an air cargo pricing data company in Hong Kong.
Now the world’s passenger airlines are shutting down much of their networks. Cathay Pacific, the dominant air carrier in Hong Kong and one of the largest airlines across the Pacific, announced late Friday afternoon that it was canceling 96 percent of its passenger services in April and May.
Yet so acute is the need for airfreight capacity that the airline said it would continue to operate some of its passenger planes just to use the cargo capacity in their bellies, while leaving the seats empty.
The cost per pound across the Pacific has tripled in the last few days as airlines have shut down most of their international passenger flights, according to freight agents. Shipping now costs considerably more than the masks themselves.
“It’s like nothing we’ve ever heard of, or seen happen,” said Jia Qing, a freight agent at Janco International Freight in Shanghai. “In normal times the price would change once every year, and now it’s changing three times a day.”...
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
Pret -
Chasing PR by offering nurses a free latte whilst behind the scenes treating their workers like shit.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
They have already done 10k+ on I think 2 or 3 occasions. Also not new, this is the number from yesterday. God journalists are having a shit war.
At 10k a day it will take nearly 3 months to test NHS patient facing staff once without testing a single patient or doing repeat tests
At 25k a day reduce that to 36 days. We really need the 250k a day Boris mentioned ages ago.
South Korea, "the gold standard", did 15k a day at peak. Germany do about 10-15k a day. Also South Korea don't do 15k a day "gold standard" tests, they did lots of faster less accurate road side ones, that were used to funnel people into the gold standard testing procedure.
Where did he say 250k a day? I have never heard him say that ever and was it a slip of the tongue. And the egg-heads definitely haven't, they have always talked about wanting to get to 25k a day.
Until there is an instant test, there is a limit to what you can do. And most of the fast tests that have been demo'ed so far aren't anywhere near accurate enough.
I thought South Korea peaked at 250,000 tests of all kind in a week. But I could be wrong.
35k a day doesn't seem too unreasonable to expect in the near-term.
I read around the internet, that fabulous source for hard facts, that Germany is massaging the figures. Basically, they're discounting from fatalities and critical condition anyone with an underlying health condition.
This is denied but it would be one explanation.
Or......Hitler and his assertion about the master race was right along....
Or they have invested in their Healthcare system and critical care capacity in advance rather than closing 17000 acute beds in last 10 years
Jesus, its like discussing things with an total idiot. The point is the German's have few people at the moment even in critical situation, we don't know exactly why. It is an interesting observation.
If we or any other major European country had the number of critical cases Germany had, e.g. Italy, none of the systems would be under any strain either.
One is average age of those infected, we know much younger than the places like Italy. We also know German's have been good on testing and lots of positives are for asymptotic people.
Is it perhaps that a mutation that is going around Germany is less severe than Italy or Spain for instance?
I'm 90% sure that classification of the major cause of death/severe ill health is the answer. Nothing else really makes sense. if someone has terminal cancer, for example, is the fact that he tested positive for CV really relevant? I don't think that they are doing anything sneaky, just being logical Germans.
Didn't quite a lot of Germans (and Spanish plus the odd Brit) not catch it whilst skiing in Italy? I find it very hard to believe the weaker strain theory.
We aren't talking about deaths, we are talking about the numbers in ICU. We know if you get this and end up in ICU you are in there for 2-3 weeks minimum before you either die or get better, but at the moment Germany seems to have a very low number of people requiring this kind of treatment.
Where as Italy, it crippled the system, not just oldies either, young people as well. And this is what caused the Imperial model to dramatically alter when they inputted that along with the Asian data. Straight away double the number of hospitalizations / ICU patients.
Hey all, long time lurker here. Thought now may be an opportune time to register - have found posts here both entertaining and insightful over the various political sagas over the last few years, and even a little profitable at times (even though I'm kicking myself at not picking up Sunak earlier, or cashing in my 30 stake in Buttigieg when I had the chance). So thanks all!
Regarding discussion of tube service earlier, have it on good authority that over 712 train drivers, 1089 station staff, and 574 maintainers absent from duties today. With those numbers I'm surprised there's any service at all!
That's basically the mitigation strategy that the Imperial College report caused us to abandon. They forecast over a million deaths in the US if they went down that path.
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
JD Sports? Don't you mean Chav Direct? WH Smiths are being total bell-ends as well.
Hey all, long time lurker here. Thought now may be an opportune time to register - have found posts here both entertaining and insightful over the various political sagas over the last few years, and even a little profitable at times (even though I'm kicking myself at not picking up Sunak earlier, or cashing in my 30 stake in Buttigieg when I had the chance). So thanks all!
Regarding discussion of tube service earlier, have it on good authority that over 712 train drivers, 1089 station staff, and 574 maintainers absent from duties today. With those numbers I'm surprised there's any service at all!
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
JD Sports? Don't you mean Chav Direct? WH Smiths are being total bell-ends as well.
Aren't Newsagents allowed to stay open?
Their statement about being essential was on the same level as Mike Ashley re Sports Direct.
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
JD Sports? Don't you mean Chav Direct? WH Smiths are being total bell-ends as well.
Hey all, long time lurker here. Thought now may be an opportune time to register - have found posts here both entertaining and insightful over the various political sagas over the last few years, and even a little profitable at times (even though I'm kicking myself at not picking up Sunak earlier, or cashing in my 30 stake in Buttigieg when I had the chance). So thanks all!
Regarding discussion of tube service earlier, have it on good authority that over 712 train drivers, 1089 station staff, and 574 maintainers absent from duties today. With those numbers I'm surprised there's any service at all!
Welcome. The Tube thing sounds plausible; I can't believe it would be about saving a bit of cash at this point.
They have already done 10k+ on I think 2 or 3 occasions. Also not new, this is the number from yesterday. God journalists are having a shit war.
At 10k a day it will take nearly 3 months to test NHS patient facing staff once without testing a single patient or doing repeat tests
At 25k a day reduce that to 36 days. We really need the 250k a day Boris mentioned ages ago.
South Korea, "the gold standard", did 15k a day at peak. Germany do about 10-15k a day. Also South Korea don't do 15k a day "gold standard" tests, they did lots of faster less accurate road side ones, that were used to funnel people into the gold standard testing procedure.
Where did he say 250k a day? I have never heard him say that ever and was it a slip of the tongue. And the egg-heads definitely haven't, they have always talked about wanting to get to 25k a day.
Until there is an instant test, there is a limit to what you can do. And most of the fast tests that have been demo'ed so far aren't anywhere near accurate enough.
I thought South Korea peaked at 250,000 tests of all kind in a week. But I could be wrong.
35k a day doesn't seem too unreasonable to expect in the near-term.
The medical establishment in this country seems very anti quick, inaccurate tests, in general.
Hey all, long time lurker here. Thought now may be an opportune time to register - have found posts here both entertaining and insightful over the various political sagas over the last few years, and even a little profitable at times (even though I'm kicking myself at not picking up Sunak earlier, or cashing in my 30 stake in Buttigieg when I had the chance). So thanks all!
Regarding discussion of tube service earlier, have it on good authority that over 712 train drivers, 1089 station staff, and 574 maintainers absent from duties today. With those numbers I'm surprised there's any service at all!
Welcome, and as someone who very nearly pulled the trigger on laying Mayor Pete when he touched 4 on Betfair it sounds like we have twinned regret!
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
They have already done 10k+ on I think 2 or 3 occasions. Also not new, this is the number from yesterday. God journalists are having a shit war.
At 10k a day it will take nearly 3 months to test NHS patient facing staff once without testing a single patient or doing repeat tests
At 25k a day reduce that to 36 days. We really need the 250k a day Boris mentioned ages ago.
South Korea, "the gold standard", did 15k a day at peak. Germany do about 10-15k a day. Also South Korea don't do 15k a day "gold standard" tests, they did lots of faster less accurate road side ones, that were used to funnel people into the gold standard testing procedure.
Where did he say 250k a day? I have never heard him say that ever and was it a slip of the tongue. And the egg-heads definitely haven't, they have always talked about wanting to get to 25k a day.
Until there is an instant test, there is a limit to what you can do. And most of the fast tests that have been demo'ed so far aren't anywhere near accurate enough.
I thought South Korea peaked at 250,000 tests of all kind in a week. But I could be wrong.
35k a day doesn't seem too unreasonable to expect in the near-term.
The medical establishment in this country seems very anti quick, inaccurate tests, in general.
See PSA for prostate cancer.
It was interesting to see the Chinese approach. From the get-go of somebody reporting symptoms, you go to a special clinic where they start by using a number of quick and dirty assessments to rule out clear cases where you don't have it and funnel down a core bunch which they test fully.
They are happy to use things like much cheaper mobile low quality CT scanners that don't really produce a great set of images, but they are good enough for a healthcare professional to say, nope not CV.
They have already done 10k+ on I think 2 or 3 occasions. Also not new, this is the number from yesterday. God journalists are having a shit war.
At 10k a day it will take nearly 3 months to test NHS patient facing staff once without testing a single patient or doing repeat tests
At 25k a day reduce that to 36 days. We really need the 250k a day Boris mentioned ages ago.
South Korea, "the gold standard", did 15k a day at peak. Germany do about 10-15k a day. Also South Korea don't do 15k a day "gold standard" tests, they did lots of faster less accurate road side ones, that were used to funnel people into the gold standard testing procedure.
Where did he say 250k a day? I have never heard him say that ever and was it a slip of the tongue. And the egg-heads definitely haven't, they have always talked about wanting to get to 25k a day.
Until there is an instant test, there is a limit to what you can do. And most of the fast tests that have been demo'ed so far aren't anywhere near accurate enough.
I thought South Korea peaked at 250,000 tests of all kind in a week. But I could be wrong.
35k a day doesn't seem too unreasonable to expect in the near-term.
The medical establishment in this country seems very anti quick, inaccurate tests, in general.
See PSA for prostate cancer.
It would probably depend on if the test tended to give false positives (in which case it could be used as a first round check) false negatives (so you would have people that would not need further testing if they showed up positive) or both (in which case it’s not much help).
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
There was a Sky report from an ICU in Italy and they said in 2 weeks they had had 10s of patients through, only 1 had made any improvement. All the rest were either dead or in the same state they arrived in.
And this was under the guidance of a top professor and with all the kit. He said we really don't know why, that they follow all best practice for people with the various conditions and nothing works.
They have already done 10k+ on I think 2 or 3 occasions. Also not new, this is the number from yesterday. God journalists are having a shit war.
At 10k a day it will take nearly 3 months to test NHS patient facing staff once without testing a single patient or doing repeat tests
At 25k a day reduce that to 36 days. We really need the 250k a day Boris mentioned ages ago.
South Korea, "the gold standard", did 15k a day at peak. Germany do about 10-15k a day. Also South Korea don't do 15k a day "gold standard" tests, they did lots of faster less accurate road side ones, that were used to funnel people into the gold standard testing procedure.
Where did he say 250k a day? I have never heard him say that ever and was it a slip of the tongue. And the egg-heads definitely haven't, they have always talked about wanting to get to 25k a day.
Until there is an instant test, there is a limit to what you can do. And most of the fast tests that have been demo'ed so far aren't anywhere near accurate enough.
I thought South Korea peaked at 250,000 tests of all kind in a week. But I could be wrong.
35k a day doesn't seem too unreasonable to expect in the near-term.
The medical establishment in this country seems very anti quick, inaccurate tests, in general.
See PSA for prostate cancer.
It was interesting to see the Chinese approach. From the get-go of somebody reporting symptoms, you go to a special clinic where they start by using a number of quick and dirty assessments to rule out clear cases where you don't have it and funnel down a core bunch which they test fully.
They are happy to use things like much cheaper mobile low quality CT scanners that don't really produce a great set of images, but they are good enough for a healthcare professional to say, nope not CV.
As was said a few days ago by someone on here, it is the Liberty Ship approach. Basic, does the job, all you need. It is exactly the approach we need to be taking at the moment.
I was surprised to learn that Germany has a lower take-up of the annual flu jab by oldies than many other countries.
The UK has an excellent record at getting people to take the flu jab! One of the public health things we have a good record on and which saves the NHS a fair bit of money. Around or just below the WHO recommendation of 75% uptake, which most countries struggle to get anywhere near. Also pretty good are the Dutch, Kiwis, Canadians and Americans (might surprise a few people) though Britain is better.
Spain, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Ireland are pretty poor and Germany is absolutely awful.
In theory this is good news for Britain since now is an awful time for old/vulnerable people to be going down with non-COVID respiratory probems (though we are getting to the end of the winter flu season now - here's how last year's season panned out - so that advantage is waning) but it also should mean we are well set up for the COVID vaccination when it becomes available. Don't assume there'll be 100% uptake on that either!
This is purely speculative, but I do wonder if it's been a double-edged sword. Presumably if we were atrocious at dealing preventatively with the seasonal flu and had terrible numbers of elderly/immunosuppressed people going through the hospital system every year because of it, we would have been running the NHS with a greater capacity for dealing with respiratory illnesses...
1) Germany has done a lot testing 2) Lots of other countries have similar death rates to Germany (I assume also countries that have done a lot of tests relative to the number of actual infections) 3) I don't think anyone has any figures for the number of people in intensive care in Germany, so it's a bit difficult to discuss. I assume, that like the death rate, it is relatively low, and for the same reasons (lots of testing, plus people haven't had time to get seriously ill yet).
Hope this helps. I realise it hurts some people to realise that according to this metric the UK isn't a country that has done a lot tests relative to the number of infections (even the US is doing a lot better...), but there really isn't any need to have wild speculation about a different German strain, or bizarre conspiracy theories about Germans hiding coronavirus deaths.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That's basically the mitigation strategy that the Imperial College report caused us to abandon. They forecast over a million deaths in the US if they went down that path.
Has there been any confirmation that it was Imperial College that informed New Labour's disastrously damaging Foot and Mouth response, as opposed to looking at the 1965 post Foot and Mouth report, which had all the answers laid down?
If this is the case, perhaps a period of silence might not go amiss.
1) Germany has done a lot testing 2) Lots of other countries have similar death rates to Germany (I assume also countries that have done a lot of tests relative to the number of actual infections) 3) I don't think anyone has any figures for the number of people in intensive care in Germany, so it's a bit difficult to discuss. I assume, that like the death rate, it is relatively low, and for the same reasons (lots of testing, plus people haven't had time to get seriously ill yet).
Hope this helps. I realise it hurts some people to realise that according to this metric the UK isn't a country that has done a lot tests relative to the number of infections (even the US is doing a lot better...), but there really isn't any need to have wild speculation about a different German strain, or bizarre conspiracy theories about Germans hiding coronavirus deaths.
Head desk bash...we aren't talking about death, somebody posted figures of the numbers in ICU in Germany and it is much lower than everywhere else. We were discussing why that might be.
Testing, with lots of asymptotic positives, age demographic of those testing positive...but I think it is an genuinely interesting question, why so few in ICU, as with this it isn't even a matter of well with a good ICU setup you get people through in a day or two, compared to poorly resourced one a week. You get this and need ICU, you are there for weeks.
Its not a conspiracy to ask is there a different mutation going around Germany compared to Italy, France and Spain, as all those countries are seeing enormous numbers needing ICU from young to old.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Is it? So recovered is not necessarily recovered then? Not heard that.
1) Germany has done a lot testing 2) Lots of other countries have similar death rates to Germany (I assume also countries that have done a lot of tests relative to the number of actual infections) 3) I don't think anyone has any figures for the number of people in intensive care in Germany, so it's a bit difficult to discuss. I assume, that like the death rate, it is relatively low, and for the same reasons (lots of testing, plus people haven't had time to get seriously ill yet).
Hope this helps. I realise it hurts some people to realise that according to this metric the UK isn't a country that has done a lot tests relative to the number of infections (even the US is doing a lot better...), but there really isn't any need to have wild speculation about a different German strain, or bizarre conspiracy theories about Germans hiding coronavirus deaths.
Head desk bash...we aren't talking about death, somebody posted figures of the numbers in ICU in Germany and it is much lower than everywhere else. We were discussing why that might be.
Double head bash - I have already posted that the figures quoted for numbers in ICU are totally wrong. Also, the same reasons apply for why there might be so far relatively few people in ICU in Germany, it's really not hard to understand. You seem to be one of those people who thinks they are much cleverer then they really are, or you don't bother reading other people's posts very carefully
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Is it? So recovered is not necessarily recovered then? Not heard that.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Is it? So recovered is not necessarily recovered then? Not heard that.
In the China data loads of cases of damage to other organs as well, heart seemed to be a big one.
Here's a hypothesis on the German paradox: maybe the explanation is not that they are under-recording serious cases and deaths, but over-reporting 'confirmed cases'. Is it possible that they are using a different test which gives lots of false positives?
To be clear, I have zero information on this, it's just a hypothesis since the explanations people have suggested for the very numbers of deaths/serious cases don't seem very convincing. If the ratio is anomalous, the difference could be in the denominator, not the numerator.
Here's a hypothesis on the German paradox: maybe the explanation is not that they are under-recording serious cases and deaths, but over-reporting 'confirmed cases'. Is it possible that they are using a different test which gives lots of false positives?
To be clear, I have zero information on this, it's just a hypothesis since the explanations people have suggested for the very numbers of deaths/serious cases don't seem very convincing. If the ratio is anomalous, the difference could be in the denominator, not the numerator.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Is it? So recovered is not necessarily recovered then? Not heard that.
In the China data loads of cases of damage to other organs as well, heart seemed to be a big one.
Many patients who died did so with heart failure as the proximate cause.
Looking back over the last 50 years it's difficult to imagine any major politician of either party less suited to being President during a crisis of this nature. America is going to pay a huge price.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Is it? So recovered is not necessarily recovered then? Not heard that.
In the China data loads of cases of damage to other organs as well, heart seemed to be a big one.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Is it? So recovered is not necessarily recovered then? Not heard that.
In the China data loads of cases of damage to other organs as well, heart seemed to be a big one.
Will longer term implications be analysed?
I can't imagine it won't..you only have to see the shear volume of papers being written at the moment that are analysing cases.
1) Germany has done a lot testing 2) Lots of other countries have similar death rates to Germany (I assume also countries that have done a lot of tests relative to the number of actual infections) 3) I don't think anyone has any figures for the number of people in intensive care in Germany, so it's a bit difficult to discuss. I assume, that like the death rate, it is relatively low, and for the same reasons (lots of testing, plus people haven't had time to get seriously ill yet).
Hope this helps. I realise it hurts some people to realise that according to this metric the UK isn't a country that has done a lot tests relative to the number of infections (even the US is doing a lot better...), but there really isn't any need to have wild speculation about a different German strain, or bizarre conspiracy theories about Germans hiding coronavirus deaths.
Head desk bash...we aren't talking about death, somebody posted figures of the numbers in ICU in Germany and it is much lower than everywhere else. We were discussing why that might be.
Testing, with lots of asymptotic positives, age demographic of those testing positive...but I think it is an genuinely interesting question, why so few in ICU, as with this it isn't even a matter of well with a good ICU setup you get people through in a day or two, compared to poorly resourced one a week. You get this and need ICU, you are there for weeks.
Its not a conspiracy to ask is there a different mutation going around Germany compared to Italy, France and Spain, as all those countries are seeing enormous numbers needing ICU from young to old.
And once again, you fail to read - did I say the different mutation theory was a conspiracy theory? no I just said it is wild and unnecessary speculation - so many German cases can be traced back to Italy, do Norway and Australia and others also have this German strain? Additionally, Christian Drosten said the other day that the German strain is no different to the strain elsewhere in Europe so you don't need to speculate any more.
Trump obviously is getting seriously worried about the personal impact Covid 19 is having on his businesses...
This is not going to end up at all well.....
It won't. However he makes the valid point that a closed down economy is a temporary sticking plaster. Too long and the economy disintegrates with potentially many more deaths and no way out. The problem is, as ever, with the situation we are in all the strategies are pretty grim. I believe the lockdown approach has the potential to buy critical time to prevent health services from collapsing. But we don't really know how this ends. Trump is actually impatient for a quick resolution - he isn't going to get it and his Presidency is probably doomed as a result.
Hey all, long time lurker here. Thought now may be an opportune time to register - have found posts here both entertaining and insightful over the various political sagas over the last few years, and even a little profitable at times (even though I'm kicking myself at not picking up Sunak earlier, or cashing in my 30 stake in Buttigieg when I had the chance). So thanks all!
Regarding discussion of tube service earlier, have it on good authority that over 712 train drivers, 1089 station staff, and 574 maintainers absent from duties today. With those numbers I'm surprised there's any service at all!
welcome - what proportion of overall TfL staff is that I wonder?
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
JD Sports? Don't you mean Chav Direct? WH Smiths are being total bell-ends as well.
1) Germany has done a lot testing 2) Lots of other countries have similar death rates to Germany (I assume also countries that have done a lot of tests relative to the number of actual infections) 3) I don't think anyone has any figures for the number of people in intensive care in Germany, so it's a bit difficult to discuss. I assume, that like the death rate, it is relatively low, and for the same reasons (lots of testing, plus people haven't had time to get seriously ill yet).
Hope this helps. I realise it hurts some people to realise that according to this metric the UK isn't a country that has done a lot tests relative to the number of infections (even the US is doing a lot better...), but there really isn't any need to have wild speculation about a different German strain, or bizarre conspiracy theories about Germans hiding coronavirus deaths.
Head desk bash...we aren't talking about death, somebody posted figures of the numbers in ICU in Germany and it is much lower than everywhere else. We were discussing why that might be.
Testing, with lots of asymptotic positives, age demographic of those testing positive...but I think it is an genuinely interesting question, why so few in ICU, as with this it isn't even a matter of well with a good ICU setup you get people through in a day or two, compared to poorly resourced one a week. You get this and need ICU, you are there for weeks.
Its not a conspiracy to ask is there a different mutation going around Germany compared to Italy, France and Spain, as all those countries are seeing enormous numbers needing ICU from young to old.
FU I thought you were "discussing with an total idiot" why the sentence
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000."
didnt mean We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000
Is anyone keeping a note of companies to have trashed their reputation during the current crisis? So far I have Britannia Hotels, Wetherspoons and JD Sports. Any others?
JD Sports? Don't you mean Chav Direct? WH Smiths are being total bell-ends as well.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Is it? So recovered is not necessarily recovered then? Not heard that.
In the China data loads of cases of damage to other organs as well, heart seemed to be a big one.
Myocarditis (heart inflammation) is another fairly common feature, but ARDS has been around for years and known to cause long term lung damage.
The sooner we stamp this out and get a vaccine the better.
It doesn't seem to have reached Trumps notice that "taking it on the chin" is a major economic as well as public health hit.
Hey all, long time lurker here. Thought now may be an opportune time to register - have found posts here both entertaining and insightful over the various political sagas over the last few years, and even a little profitable at times (even though I'm kicking myself at not picking up Sunak earlier, or cashing in my 30 stake in Buttigieg when I had the chance). So thanks all!
Regarding discussion of tube service earlier, have it on good authority that over 712 train drivers, 1089 station staff, and 574 maintainers absent from duties today. With those numbers I'm surprised there's any service at all!
Thanks for that info guybrush. Assuming all those people have not been afflicted with coronavirus (and if they are guards, it is very possible in many cases) that is appalling absenteeism.
Train drivers, especially tube drivers, are paid handsomely and should be doing their job.
Looking back over the last 50 years it's difficult to imagine any major politician of either party less suited to being President during a crisis of this nature. America is going to pay a huge price.
Yep. They are about to find out that electing Trump was an act of near suicide.
Incidentally I notice that 2 more people died from the Diamond Princess. This makes the death rate there 1.4% at the moment but the really troubling thing is that they still have 115 active cases and 15 critical. The hospital resource implications of that after all this time are genuinely frightening.
That accords with some of the numbers reported from China, which suggest some patients had a very long hard struggle.
That is the other difference from Flu, which peaks over a few days in an individual. COVID19 takes someone into ICU for 5-10 times that, hence the need for numbers of ventilators.
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
Is it? So recovered is not necessarily recovered then? Not heard that.
In the China data loads of cases of damage to other organs as well, heart seemed to be a big one.
Myocarditis (heart inflammation) is another fairly common feature, but ARDS has been around for years and known to cause long term lung damage.
The sooner we stamp this out and get a vaccine the better.
It doesn't seem to have reached Trumps notice that "taking it on the chin" is a major economic as well as public health hit.
Absolutely agreed re a vaccine. I hope that the lockdown yesterday (with the previous social distancing over the previous days) has just about come on time.
1) that the two metre social distancing rule does not apply to one`s own wife? 2) does this exemption extend to other people`s wives? (Particularly the young one next door)?
Interesting article on US/Chinese trade and relations:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/coronavirus-china-masks.html Global carriers like United Airlines and Cathay Pacific have slashed international flights to near zero as countries bolster their borders. About half the world’s air cargo traveled last year in the bellies of passenger planes, said John Peyton Burnett, the managing director of TAC Index, an air cargo pricing data company in Hong Kong.
Now the world’s passenger airlines are shutting down much of their networks. Cathay Pacific, the dominant air carrier in Hong Kong and one of the largest airlines across the Pacific, announced late Friday afternoon that it was canceling 96 percent of its passenger services in April and May.
Yet so acute is the need for airfreight capacity that the airline said it would continue to operate some of its passenger planes just to use the cargo capacity in their bellies, while leaving the seats empty.
The cost per pound across the Pacific has tripled in the last few days as airlines have shut down most of their international passenger flights, according to freight agents. Shipping now costs considerably more than the masks themselves.
“It’s like nothing we’ve ever heard of, or seen happen,” said Jia Qing, a freight agent at Janco International Freight in Shanghai. “In normal times the price would change once every year, and now it’s changing three times a day.”...
If all the passenger seats are empty, could airlines put parcels in them? Maybe a daft question, though.
Comments
How this shakes out I do not know but what is certain nothing is going to be the same again for the EU, it's member states, and the UK
It is stupid as your x50 the cost to rent private beds.
The anti-body test is a game changers, and the UK government have been really big on this and looks like we might be the first or one of the first to get it.
Also the Forbes article uses the absurd figure of "2" people in serious/critical condition which they got from Worldometer (god only knows where they got it from), without doing the most basic fact-checking or even using basic common sense to decide if that number was plausible - at that time my wife could have told them that there were 3 Covid-19 patients in intensive care just in her medium-sized hospital.
The government started well, but were wrong for about 3 days and I called them out, when they decided for some unknown reason from ramping up testing, to no we won't we will wait for the antibody test, and rightly got the WHO giving them both barrels.
But I have said we should be following the funnel approach of SK. Less accurate roadside test, then funnel to the gold standard one. But as I said, they were only doing max 15k in total of both tests at peak.
I don't really think the Germans are the master race....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaoDh3hfmnM
If we or any other major European country had the number of critical cases Germany had, e.g. Italy, none of the systems would be under any strain either.
One is average age of those infected, we know much younger than the places like Italy. We also know German's have been good on testing and lots of positives are for asymptotic people.
Is it perhaps that a mutation that is going around Germany is less severe than Italy or Spain for instance?
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2765059/#Comment_2765059
Daunt, I think his name is.
https://twitter.com/FoleshillWMP/status/1242460673914912770?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1242460673914912770&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/24/uk-coronavirus-live-news-lockdown-boris-johnson-sports-direct-abandons-talk-of-opening-stores-as-gove-clarifies-scope-of-lockdown-rules
Fucking bell-end. If you are driving there, no...If you live in the countryside, yes, go for a short walk. FFS, how hard is it. It really is like journalists are sitting around trying to think of every possible scenario and then say but the government aren't clear on it.
Which bit of stay at f##king home unless you really need to go out for food or medicines and a short bit of exercise is so hard to get through your thick skull.
I actually don't know how these people do any work at all. Does there boss have to give them line by line instructions for every task?
To be honest this is a typical exchange with you. You start by claiming something wasnt said misquote what i said then avoid giving an answer.
Clearly just another typical Johnson half truth of the type that you love to defend.
You didnt say "he never promised 250k of the test you want for front line health workers" you said he didnt promise 250k tests He did in the same sentence as 5k 10k 25k
i have never suggested we test NHS staff every couple of days I said at the current rate it will take 3 months to test frontline staff once without testing a single patient. I would have thought a Dr on the frontline should be retested at some point But again you prefer to lie about what i said.
WHEN WILL WE GET THE 250,000 TESTS PROMISED WHATEVER THE TYPE
Revealed as the turd that my agent always told me his is.
The explanation is mainly that Germany has done a lot of testing, and also many of the infections are too recent to yet be seriously ill. Expecting things to get a lot worse next week, or even the end of this week.
But the worldometers figures for people in serious/critical condition is way off. So far as I know there are no figures for numbers of critical cases in Germany.
It's also true that Germany starts off with a much bigger intensive care capacity than many countries. At the moment people are more worried about staffing (and PPE), than ICU numbers, although the number of places will probably also be an issue at the peak.
Didn't quite a lot of Germans (and Spanish plus the odd Brit) not catch it whilst skiing in Italy? I find it very hard to believe the weaker strain theory.
Coincidentally Tim Martin was also on last year, annoyingly quite good taste in records.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/business/coronavirus-china-masks.html
Global carriers like United Airlines and Cathay Pacific have slashed international flights to near zero as countries bolster their borders. About half the world’s air cargo traveled last year in the bellies of passenger planes, said John Peyton Burnett, the managing director of TAC Index, an air cargo pricing data company in Hong Kong.
Now the world’s passenger airlines are shutting down much of their networks. Cathay Pacific, the dominant air carrier in Hong Kong and one of the largest airlines across the Pacific, announced late Friday afternoon that it was canceling 96 percent of its passenger services in April and May.
Yet so acute is the need for airfreight capacity that the airline said it would continue to operate some of its passenger planes just to use the cargo capacity in their bellies, while leaving the seats empty.
The cost per pound across the Pacific has tripled in the last few days as airlines have shut down most of their international passenger flights, according to freight agents. Shipping now costs considerably more than the masks themselves.
“It’s like nothing we’ve ever heard of, or seen happen,” said Jia Qing, a freight agent at Janco International Freight in Shanghai. “In normal times the price would change once every year, and now it’s changing three times a day.”...
This is not going to end up at all well.....
Chasing PR by offering nurses a free latte whilst behind the scenes treating their workers like shit.
Where as Italy, it crippled the system, not just oldies either, young people as well. And this is what caused the Imperial model to dramatically alter when they inputted that along with the Asian data. Straight away double the number of hospitalizations / ICU patients.
Regarding discussion of tube service earlier, have it on good authority that over 712 train drivers, 1089 station staff, and 574 maintainers absent from duties today. With those numbers I'm surprised there's any service at all!
The Tube thing sounds plausible; I can't believe it would be about saving a bit of cash at this point.
See PSA for prostate cancer.
They are happy to use things like much cheaper mobile low quality CT scanners that don't really produce a great set of images, but they are good enough for a healthcare professional to say, nope not CV.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html
Worth noting that permanent lung damage is a common sequelae too.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1242461713859072003?s=21
And this was under the guidance of a top professor and with all the kit. He said we really don't know why, that they follow all best practice for people with the various conditions and nothing works.
Spain, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Ireland are pretty poor and Germany is absolutely awful.
In theory this is good news for Britain since now is an awful time for old/vulnerable people to be going down with non-COVID respiratory probems (though we are getting to the end of the winter flu season now - here's how last year's season panned out - so that advantage is waning) but it also should mean we are well set up for the COVID vaccination when it becomes available. Don't assume there'll be 100% uptake on that either!
This is purely speculative, but I do wonder if it's been a double-edged sword. Presumably if we were atrocious at dealing preventatively with the seasonal flu and had terrible numbers of elderly/immunosuppressed people going through the hospital system every year because of it, we would have been running the NHS with a greater capacity for dealing with respiratory illnesses...
2) Lots of other countries have similar death rates to Germany (I assume also countries that have done a lot of tests relative to the number of actual infections)
3) I don't think anyone has any figures for the number of people in intensive care in Germany, so it's a bit difficult to discuss. I assume, that like the death rate, it is relatively low, and for the same reasons (lots of testing, plus people haven't had time to get seriously ill yet).
Hope this helps.
I realise it hurts some people to realise that according to this metric the UK isn't a country that has done a lot tests relative to the number of infections (even the US is doing a lot better...), but there really isn't any need to have wild speculation about a different German strain, or bizarre conspiracy theories about Germans hiding coronavirus deaths.
This is worrying too: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html
If this is the case, perhaps a period of silence might not go amiss.
Testing, with lots of asymptotic positives, age demographic of those testing positive...but I think it is an genuinely interesting question, why so few in ICU, as with this it isn't even a matter of well with a good ICU setup you get people through in a day or two, compared to poorly resourced one a week. You get this and need ICU, you are there for weeks.
Its not a conspiracy to ask is there a different mutation going around Germany compared to Italy, France and Spain, as all those countries are seeing enormous numbers needing ICU from young to old.
Also, the same reasons apply for why there might be so far relatively few people in ICU in Germany, it's really not hard to understand.
You seem to be one of those people who thinks they are much cleverer then they really are, or you don't bother reading other people's posts very carefully
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-survivors-lung-damage-ards-fcim-intensive-care-research-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
Not sure how reliable they are.
To be clear, I have zero information on this, it's just a hypothesis since the explanations people have suggested for the very numbers of deaths/serious cases don't seem very convincing. If the ratio is anomalous, the difference could be in the denominator, not the numerator.
yes
"We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000."
didnt mean We're massively increasing the testing to see whether you have it now and ramping up daily testing from 5,000 a day, to 10,000 to 25,000 and then up at 250,000
The sooner we stamp this out and get a vaccine the better.
It doesn't seem to have reached Trumps notice that "taking it on the chin" is a major economic as well as public health hit.
Monkey Island might be a rather safer place to be right now.
Compared to Italy, we remain 15 days behind.
Train drivers, especially tube drivers, are paid handsomely and should be doing their job.
Over time, a declining rate of increase is the best we can hope for, until the new deaths number starts to fall.
1) that the two metre social distancing rule does not apply to one`s own wife?
2) does this exemption extend to other people`s wives? (Particularly the young one next door)?
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242479152420225025?s=20
https://twitter.com/MercianMedia/status/1242225413201543168?s=20