Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
It has become news again because the PM gave the strong impression yesterday that if we bear all this for a few months it will all be over.
I think his use of language was ill advised, he talked 12 weeks and on the downhill (which is true for this current seasons if people take the advice and the model is correct) but muddled it with other stuff. I think the idea was to try and nudge people to abide by the measures and is constantly goaded by the media to give exact times e.g. Rigby asking about going on summer holidays.
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year. Down the spoons we go Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Which is not what the egg-heads are saying and if people don't listen this will be a mega cluster fuck.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
I'm also a bit uncertain what you are basing this statement on @Barnesian - is there evidence that we will peak soon?
My anecdotal evidence is that locally there are far many more cases (untested) than are being reported. I estimate 10% of the population (not the 3,500 cases - 0.02% which are being reported). This would be 7 million for the UK. We won't definitely know until we do random serology tests.
If it is 10% of the population, the fatality rate is a lot less than reported (bigger numerator). So my assertion that it may peak soon is based on the level of current infection. It can't go over 100%. Probably peak at say 50-60% when R becomes <1. If it is doubling every four days, that means 8-10 days to peak infection and 15-17 days to peak daily deaths.
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
I'm buying now.
I guess if it all goes pear-shaped you can use the share certificates to wipe your arse.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
Yes but the fatality rate will be very low - comparable with seasonal flu. We can unlock.
We don't know that yet.
You're right. We don't. It is conjecture. We need the tests. I should have used the subjunctive.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
It has become news again because the PM gave the strong impression yesterday that if we bear all this for a few months it will all be over.
I think his use of language was ill advised, he talked 12 weeks and on the downhill (which is true) but muddled it with other stuff. I think the idea was to try and nudge people to abide by the measures and is constantly goaded by the media to give exact times e.g. Rigby asking about going on summer holidays.
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year.
My sister in laws sons (and husband to be fair) think this is all a bit of a fuss and are going to "carry on as normal" - this includes pubbing and clubbing where possible.
Unbelievable - needless to say we will not be seeing them for a while
Those overall numbers are pretty much unchanged from the very start. A smidgen under 1% of those who catch the virus will die from it. The great unknown is how many will contract it.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
It has become news again because the PM gave the strong impression yesterday that if we bear all this for a few months it will all be over.
I think his use of language was ill advised, he talked 12 weeks and on the downhill (which is true) but muddled it with other stuff. I think the idea was to try and nudge people to abide by the measures and is constantly goaded by the media to give exact times e.g. Rigby asking about going on summer holidays.
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year.
My sister in laws sons (and husband to be fair) think this is all a bit of a fuss and are going to "carry on as normal" - this includes pubbing and clubbing where possible.
Unbelievable - needless to say we will not be seeing them for a while
One of the biggest mistakes, not just UK, but worldwide, the quoting of the report that says 80% of cases are mild. The author of this report now says he regrets using this phrase.
I know they don't want to scare the horses, but "mild" includes serious pneumonia and the worst flu you will have ever had. They used it to mean you don't need hospitalization and you aren't in danger of dying.
If it was said say 50% of you will get the worst flu ever, you will get pneumonia, and explain just what that is like, hopefully people would understand what the fuss is about. I had bad pneumonia and I never want it again, it was like I was fighting to breath.
You're booked in at the Bay Horse Monday 6th April, 10.30 to 10.50 am. There will be a fee for missed appointments unless 24 hours cancellation notice is given.
Most of this was in the Imperial report...do they not read?
Requiring reading and understanding anything longer than a tweet is Colonialist White Male Supremacy? Science makes it a treble score... Didn't you get the memo?
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
It has become news again because the PM gave the strong impression yesterday that if we bear all this for a few months it will all be over.
I think his use of language was ill advised, he talked 12 weeks and on the downhill (which is true) but muddled it with other stuff. I think the idea was to try and nudge people to abide by the measures and is constantly goaded by the media to give exact times e.g. Rigby asking about going on summer holidays.
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year.
My sister in laws sons (and husband to be fair) think this is all a bit of a fuss and are going to "carry on as normal" - this includes pubbing and clubbing where possible.
Unbelievable - needless to say we will not be seeing them for a while
That is just incredible. THe lack of responsibility here is shocking.
I wonder if it also varies across the country - where I live (East of England) things are already effectively in lockdown
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
I'm buying now.
The key will be to avoid buying shares in companies that literally won`t make it through all of this. This fear is why the FTSE250 index has been hit even harder than the FTSE100.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
It has become news again because the PM gave the strong impression yesterday that if we bear all this for a few months it will all be over.
I think his use of language was ill advised, he talked 12 weeks and on the downhill (which is true) but muddled it with other stuff. I think the idea was to try and nudge people to abide by the measures and is constantly goaded by the media to give exact times e.g. Rigby asking about going on summer holidays.
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year.
My sister in laws sons (and husband to be fair) think this is all a bit of a fuss and are going to "carry on as normal" - this includes pubbing and clubbing where possible.
Unbelievable - needless to say we will not be seeing them for a while
That is just incredible. THe lack of responsibility here is shocking.
I wonder if it also varies across the country - where I live (East of England) things are already effectively in lockdown
And possibly class?
This is London (outskirts) - You have a mixture of people there from bank manager to builder
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
It has become news again because the PM gave the strong impression yesterday that if we bear all this for a few months it will all be over.
I think his use of language was ill advised, he talked 12 weeks and on the downhill (which is true for this current seasons if people take the advice and the model is correct) but muddled it with other stuff. I think the idea was to try and nudge people to abide by the measures and is constantly goaded by the media to give exact times e.g. Rigby asking about going on summer holidays.
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year. Down the spoons we go Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Which is not what the egg-heads are saying and if people don't listen this will be a mega cluster fuck.
Where did you get that from the clip you posted? He was very clear about the alternating.
If Boris is incapable of communicating clearly and accurately, that's his responsibility to deal with, and it's the media's responsibility to report how what he says differs from the truth.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
It has become news again because the PM gave the strong impression yesterday that if we bear all this for a few months it will all be over.
I think his use of language was ill advised, he talked 12 weeks and on the downhill (which is true) but muddled it with other stuff. I think the idea was to try and nudge people to abide by the measures and is constantly goaded by the media to give exact times e.g. Rigby asking about going on summer holidays.
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year.
My sister in laws sons (and husband to be fair) think this is all a bit of a fuss and are going to "carry on as normal" - this includes pubbing and clubbing where possible.
Unbelievable - needless to say we will not be seeing them for a while
That is just incredible. THe lack of responsibility here is shocking.
I wonder if it also varies across the country - where I live (East of England) things are already effectively in lockdown
Actually you say that about East of England but not sure that is true - one of my sons manages a bar in Essex - it is still open and it was only the other day he said takings were even better than xmas.
He feels trapped - doesn't want to work, but needs an income to keep a roof over his head
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Probably 95% confidence intervals rather than assumption based. I think it merely reflects uncertainty, rather than optimism about herd immunity.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
It has become news again because the PM gave the strong impression yesterday that if we bear all this for a few months it will all be over.
I think his use of language was ill advised, he talked 12 weeks and on the downhill (which is true for this current seasons if people take the advice and the model is correct) but muddled it with other stuff. I think the idea was to try and nudge people to abide by the measures and is constantly goaded by the media to give exact times e.g. Rigby asking about going on summer holidays.
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year. Down the spoons we go Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Which is not what the egg-heads are saying and if people don't listen this will be a mega cluster fuck.
Where did you get that from the clip you posted? He was very clear about the alternating.
If Boris is incapable of communicating clearly and accurately, that's his responsibility to deal with, and it's the media's responsibility to report how what he says differs from the truth.
The headline is now running on Sky news is Social distancing needs to be in place for 'most of a year'
Now yes if you listen carefully they said it will alternate, but most people don't listen / read past the headline. It is why Boris' comments were poor.
You watch they will vox pop people in the next few days and they will all say no way I am going to stay locked down for a year, lets all go the pub, lets all go the pub.
Interesting that Sterling is bouncing back a bit and the markets have got a bit more faith in Gilts than a few days ago. I think the wage subsidies have been wel received today.
Barclaycard have just emailed me with the following:
Whether you would like additional support with managing your Barclaycard, or have faced disruption to finances or travel plans, we can work with you to look at ways to make things easier. To help with this, we will be stopping late payment and cash advance fees for Barclaycard customers for the next 90 days – we’ll take care of this, so you won’t need to call us.
The last paragraph of that article is correct, the next French Presidental election is Le Pens to lose.
There's a real dearth of polling on the French Presidential election, which is really quite shocking. However, it does look wonderfully close, with both Macron and Le Pen in the high 20s according to Wikipedia.
My laptop is constantly being logged out of PB this morning. It’s frustrating.
Anyway the key, as I and many others have been saying on here is to keep the income flowing and as many jobs as possible intact until the virus is over. Boris reckons we are 12 weeks from that. It should be possible for the government to pay everyone’s wages for that long. They are already paying the 40% in the public sector. They need to keep the tax base for the recovery.
At the moment even those who are still paid are not spending. Restaurants, hotels, holidays, cars, cinema, home improvements, nothing is going to happen until we can move about freely and without fear. But we will need all of those things in due course. More than ever in many cases.
Boris' 12 week reckoning didn't make it to the end of the news conference.
Boris has sensibly left the heavy lifting to the experts, perhaps he should engage an expert communicator to run the press conferences.
"12 weeks" could mean: - 12 weeks to the peak (with however many extra weeks or months until its subsided enough to take down measures) - 12 weeks to the first peak, with however many cycles of on-and-off again needed to keep the figures down until we get a vaccine (median expectation 18 months; have seen people talking about as little as six months which would be great) - - 12 weeks until it's all over, tea and medals for all.
Sadly, although I think it's the feeling he wanted to give, the latter could well be least likely. Regardless, after three months of shutdown of the hospitality and airline sectors, they wouldn't be coming back unchanged. And those working in those sectors face a hellish time of uncertainty, regardless.
So, yes - he absolutely needs to do something for them.
on those subsequent peaks we arent using anything like the ICU capacity of the first. so couldnt you shorten the lockdown phases and extend the liberty phases to limit the financial damage. yes more people would get infected and more die but hopefully there will still be an ICU bed to give them the best chance.
Yep; that was in the modelling as well (bear in mind that as more data comes in, the model would need to be updated and we haven't seen any updates). The scale of the difference in deaths is in the table below:
Interesting. Many thanks. Hopefully we're not in the red column.
I should have added in what the acronyms meant, sorry! CI: Case Isolation. You have symptoms, you self-isolate HQ: Home Quarantining. Anyone in your family has it, you all quarantine yourself. SD: Social Distancing. PC: Closure of Schools and Universities.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Probably 95% confidence intervals rather than assumption based. I think it merely reflects uncertainty, rather than optimism about herd immunity.
It stated that they were based on different infection rates, so I don't think they were confidence intervals.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
The trouble is that the mitigation option was a high-risk, high-reward option (you're fucked if the hospitalisation rate turns out to be higher than expected, but damage to the economy is lessened). The suppression option was safer, but would damage the economy more. Boris gambled on the former, and lost. Now we are desperately scrambling to implement the suppression option, but I fear that horse has now bolted. Boris's dithering has screwed us.
If government borrows from the BoE the interest payments don't matter. They are remitted back. The debt could be simply written off.
BoE interest payments may not "matter" because the BoE and the Government are essentially the same person wearing different hats. It doesn't follow that writing off the debt permanently would have no effect on subsequent interest rates.
Inflation policy is not just monetary policy (interest rates). It is also fiscal policy using taxation to moderate or stimulate demand as required to maintain a sustainable growth rate. It's all economic policy.
"It's all economic policy." Yes ultimately, but within that broad tent there are multiple choices. Interest rates are a single rather crude tool (hence the old joke about playing golf with one club). Given the current context, simply assuming we can increase debt significantly without it biting back in the future is rather short-term thinking. A policy of eating the pangolin now and sod the consequences...
Those overall numbers are pretty much unchanged from the very start. A smidgen under 1% of those who catch the virus will die from it. The great unknown is how many will contract it.
Yes. It's also the symptomatic Case Fatality Rate. Not the Infection Fatality Rate. A really important distinction since it will reduce mortality further.
This is the crucial question. Because it is becoming clear from the statistics from Vo and from Iceland (which are the only two places I know of, where asymptomatic people have been tested) that there are a significant number of aymptomatic people above and beyond those who test positive.
This, I suspect, is also the reason for the difference between the German figures and everywhere else. Simply, they're catching lots of people without symptoms.
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
I'm buying now.
The key will be to avoid buying shares in companies that literally won`t make it through all of this. This fear is why the FTSE250 index has been hit even harder than the FTSE100.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
The general trend over the last few weeks is for weekend news and anxieties to cause drops at the beginning of the week, with soft recoveries as the week goes on, and great volatility.
The bottom of a bear market is usually months or years rather than weeks after the peak. I cannot see it being greatly different even in these unusual circumstances.
Now it is the responsible people who social distance v the fuckwits in Spoons.
The problem is for a lot of people living by themselves in a small flat going to a pub or cafe was probably an important part of their day when they got away from their own company for a while. It's going to be difficult for them to manage without it for a prolonged period of time.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
If we are at 19 million Italy must be at 300 million. Which doesn't quite work.
You mean reached saturation. Which is possible - remember that they are (just like every other country) 10 days behind. That is, the number we are seeing are the result of what happened 10 days ago.
Quite clearly, if you look at the varying reported infection rates in different places in Italy, the whole nation cannot be at saturation. In fact, to give one specific, I think you can safely say that Milan cannot be anywhere remotely close to saturation.
I made predictions for the course of the Italian outbreak a couple of weeks ago: 40k cases (on current diagnosis) / 2k deaths in this geographically limited outbreak, 400k cases / 20k deaths overall.
It looks like, for this outbreak, both the geographical spread, which I only foresaw fully hitting a few more provinces given lockdown., and the death rate, were low, though I don't think my 40k figure looks too silly yet. It is clear the geographic spread in major cities will be Italy's story this week, Milan, Florence, Bologna have slowed the curve but have yet to peak, Turin is accelerating rapidly, Rome and Naples are on slightly slower but upwards curves. And the effects of the full lockdown have some days to work through.
That considered, my estimates are now, 70k cases, 7000 deaths for this outbreak, but with hope of some medical mitigation and a lower multiplier because more locations have been expected this time, 500k cases, 40k deaths overall. (Btw I noted the CSO quote 20k UK deaths as a good outcome at one of the press conferences earlier in the week)
Interesting that Sterling is bouncing back a bit and the markets have got a bit more faith in Gilts than a few days ago. I think the wage subsidies have been wel received today.
Yes, the £/$ buy I recommended Wednesday is well into blue, and this week does look like a recovery week. Also note that the Dow is doing worse than the FTSE but the resistance levels of 20000 / 5000 are still in play.
A lot hangs on the credibility of the detail of the government’s rescue package announcement. If there is a catch in the small print, things could turn south rapidly.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
Obviously the virus will be around post lockdown.
The question is what the growth rate will be post lockdown.
As in, if we implement the same measures South Korea has (which don't seem to have done its economy any harm), can we drive R0 down to around 1. In which case you have an ongoing minor issue with around 50 to 100 people catching the virus each day, but no risk of health services getting overwhelmed, and most people continuing their normal lives.
Or, will we have better treatment or a vaccine?
Or, will growth simply be slower because there are fewer people to be infected, and we're all a little better about handwashing?
Whatever happens, we won't be ignorant this time around.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
The trouble is that the mitigation option was a high-risk, high-reward option (you're fucked if the hospitalisation rate turns out to be higher than expected, but damage to the economy is lessened). The suppression option was safer, but would damage the economy more. Boris gambled on the former, and lost. Now we are desperately scrambling to implement the suppression option, but I fear that horse has now bolted. Boris's dithering has screwed us.
Hasn't Boris been following scientific advice the whole time? It's not his fault if that advice changes.
The last paragraph of that article is correct, the next French Presidental election is Le Pens to lose.
There's a real dearth of polling on the French Presidential election, which is really quite shocking. However, it does look wonderfully close, with both Macron and Le Pen in the high 20s according to Wikipedia.
Wow, will have to use my newfangled passport and see if I can register to vote
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Probably 95% confidence intervals rather than assumption based. I think it merely reflects uncertainty, rather than optimism about herd immunity.
It stated that they were based on different infection rates, so I don't think they were confidence intervals.
Presumably extrapolated from the confidence intervals of the R0 estimation, so I think much the same thing.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
If we are at 19 million Italy must be at 300 million. Which doesn't quite work.
You mean reached saturation. Which is possible - remember that they are (just like every other country) 10 days behind. That is, the number we are seeing are the result of what happened 10 days ago.
Quite clearly, if you look at the varying reported infection rates in different places in Italy, the whole nation cannot be at saturation. In fact, to give one specific, I think you can safely say that Milan cannot be anywhere remotely close to saturation.
I made predictions for the course of the Italian outbreak a couple of weeks ago: 40k cases (on current diagnosis) / 2k deaths in this geographically limited outbreak, 400k cases / 20k deaths overall.
It looks like, for this outbreak, both the geographical spread, which I only foresaw fully hitting a few more provinces given lockdown., and the death rate, were low, though I don't think my 40k figure looks too silly yet. It is clear the geographic spread in major cities will be Italy's story this week, Milan, Florence, Bologna have slowed the curve but have yet to peak, Turin is accelerating rapidly, Rome and Naples are on slightly slower but upwards curves. And the effects of the full lockdown have some days to work through.
That considered, my estimates are now, 70k cases, 7000 deaths for this outbreak, but with hope of some medical mitigation and a lower multiplier because more locations have been expected this time, 500k cases, 40k deaths overall. (Btw I noted the CSO quote 20k UK deaths as a good outcome at one of the press conferences earlier in the week)
By overall, you mean in subsequent outbreaks?
Yes, subsequent outbreaks during the pandemic phase.
The last paragraph of that article is correct, the next French Presidental election is Le Pen's to lose.
And lose it she will.
It is more likely than not, at the moment, that you are right. But there have now been two occasions when France has had to be saved from a Le Pen by the left holding their noses in a runoff. I don't know how long that can continue.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
The trouble is that the mitigation option was a high-risk, high-reward option (you're fucked if the hospitalisation rate turns out to be higher than expected, but damage to the economy is lessened). The suppression option was safer, but would damage the economy more. Boris gambled on the former, and lost. Now we are desperately scrambling to implement the suppression option, but I fear that horse has now bolted. Boris's dithering has screwed us.
Hasn't Boris been following scientific advice the whole time? It's not his fault if that advice changes.
There are losds of geniuses about with the benefit of hindsight..
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
I'm buying now.
The key will be to avoid buying shares in companies that literally won`t make it through all of this. This fear is why the FTSE250 index has been hit even harder than the FTSE100.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
The general trend over the last few weeks is for weekend news and anxieties to cause drops at the beginning of the week, with soft recoveries as the week goes on, and great volatility.
The bottom of a bear market is usually months or years rather than weeks after the peak. I cannot see it being greatly different even in these unusual circumstances.
I’m inclined to agree. Currently the markets are in the “relief that the world hasn’t ended next week as we feared” stage. Which may last into next week, but surely bad news from the US (where confirmed cases appear to be rising more than anywhere else?) will bring this to an end.
My trading advice would be to buy FTSE, Asian and European markets but balance with an equal sized sell bet on the US.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
Obviously the virus will be around post lockdown.
The question is what the growth rate will be post lockdown.
As in, if we implement the same measures South Korea has (which don't seem to have done its economy any harm), can we drive R0 down to around 1. In which case you have an ongoing minor issue with around 50 to 100 people catching the virus each day, but no risk of health services getting overwhelmed, and most people continuing their normal lives.
Or, will we have better treatment or a vaccine?
Or, will growth simply be slower because there are fewer people to be infected, and we're all a little better about handwashing?
Whatever happens, we won't be ignorant this time around.
Are the South Korean measures sustainable in the long term? As in a year and more?
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
If we are at 19 million Italy must be at 300 million. Which doesn't quite work.
You mean reached saturation. Which is possible - remember that they are (just like every other country) 10 days behind. That is, the number we are seeing are the result of what happened 10 days ago.
Quite clearly, if you look at the varying reported infection rates in different places in Italy, the whole nation cannot be at saturation. In fact, to give one specific, I think you can safely say that Milan cannot be anywhere remotely close to saturation.
I made predictions for the course of the Italian outbreak a couple of weeks ago: 40k cases (on current diagnosis) / 2k deaths in this geographically limited outbreak, 400k cases / 20k deaths overall.
It looks like, for this outbreak, both the geographical spread, which I only foresaw fully hitting a few more provinces given lockdown., and the death rate, were low, though I don't think my 40k figure looks too silly yet. It is clear the geographic spread in major cities will be Italy's story this week, Milan, Florence, Bologna have slowed the curve but have yet to peak, Turin is accelerating rapidly, Rome and Naples are on slightly slower but upwards curves. And the effects of the full lockdown have some days to work through.
That considered, my estimates are now, 70k cases, 7000 deaths for this outbreak, but with hope of some medical mitigation and a lower multiplier because more locations have been expected this time, 500k cases, 40k deaths overall. (Btw I noted the CSO quote 20k UK deaths as a good outcome at one of the press conferences earlier in the week)
Do we have today's numbers from Italy yet?
My expectation is that today or tomorrow will see the peak of reported new cases for the country, and it will start to decline after that.
This means that real new cases peaked sometime between last Thursday and last Sunday, and we're only see it now in the reported numbers.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
The trouble is that the mitigation option was a high-risk, high-reward option (you're fucked if the hospitalisation rate turns out to be higher than expected, but damage to the economy is lessened). The suppression option was safer, but would damage the economy more. Boris gambled on the former, and lost. Now we are desperately scrambling to implement the suppression option, but I fear that horse has now bolted. Boris's dithering has screwed us.
Hasn't Boris been following scientific advice the whole time? It's not his fault if that advice changes.
Did you read what I wrote? There were two options: one high risk, high payback; one low risk, low payback, both based on the scientific evidence available at the time. Boris chose the former and lost. Now he has to implement the latter, but the latter is no longer low risk, low payback.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Except it's not. The Foreign Secretary again expressed his opposition to delay only this week. The end of the transition period remains a top priority for Leavers such as Mr Habib and Mr Raab.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
If we are at 19 million Italy must be at 300 million. Which doesn't quite work.
You mean reached saturation. Which is possible - remember that they are (just like every other country) 10 days behind. That is, the number we are seeing are the result of what happened 10 days ago.
Quite clearly, if you look at the varying reported infection rates in different places in Italy, the whole nation cannot be at saturation. In fact, to give one specific, I think you can safely say that Milan cannot be anywhere remotely close to saturation.
I made predictions for the course of the Italian outbreak a couple of weeks ago: 40k cases (on current diagnosis) / 2k deaths in this geographically limited outbreak, 400k cases / 20k deaths overall.
It looks like, for this outbreak, both the geographical spread, which I only foresaw fully hitting a few more provinces given lockdown., and the death rate, were low, though I don't think my 40k figure looks too silly yet. It is clear the geographic spread in major cities will be Italy's story this week, Milan, Florence, Bologna have slowed the curve but have yet to peak, Turin is accelerating rapidly, Rome and Naples are on slightly slower but upwards curves. And the effects of the full lockdown have some days to work through.
That considered, my estimates are now, 70k cases, 7000 deaths for this outbreak, but with hope of some medical mitigation and a lower multiplier because more locations have been expected this time, 500k cases, 40k deaths overall. (Btw I noted the CSO quote 20k UK deaths as a good outcome at one of the press conferences earlier in the week)
Do we have today's numbers from Italy yet?
My expectation is that today or tomorrow will see the peak of reported new cases for the country, and it will start to decline after that.
This means that real new cases peaked sometime between last Thursday and last Sunday, and we're only see it now in the reported numbers.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
Obviously the virus will be around post lockdown.
The question is what the growth rate will be post lockdown.
As in, if we implement the same measures South Korea has (which don't seem to have done its economy any harm), can we drive R0 down to around 1. In which case you have an ongoing minor issue with around 50 to 100 people catching the virus each day, but no risk of health services getting overwhelmed, and most people continuing their normal lives.
Or, will we have better treatment or a vaccine?
Or, will growth simply be slower because there are fewer people to be infected, and we're all a little better about handwashing?
Whatever happens, we won't be ignorant this time around.
Are the South Korean measures sustainable in the long term? As in a year and more?
There are very few restrictions on ordinary life in South Korea. There is just an incredibly aggressive testing system, whereby if one person is found with an infection, everyone they think they might have come in sustained contact with (sometimes 100 plus people) are temporarily quarentined and then tested.
This means they catch a lot of asymptomatic and presymptomatic spreaders of the disease. But it costs a lot of money. And can only be done if you've already gotten the virus under control.
It's obvious that one big lockdown isn't going to work because when you release people the virus will still be around. That's why the herd immunity idea was proposed in the first place. Also the 1918 flu graph shows that the worst peak was the second one.
A big lockdown now is the only way to deal with being caught off guard like this. the West was completely unprepared. You will cause many many more needless deaths without these measures. Then, once the peak has passed, restrictions can slowly be lifted, social distancing maintained but not full lockdown, cases will rise but slower, people will be aware of the dangers, flights will be monitored and screened, and the healthcare system won't be submerged. You buy time for various drugs to manage symptoms, buy time to ramp up production of testing kits, protective gear, beds and ventilators. A vaccine in the longer term too.
The question is would the western public accepted a total lockdown immediately. Asia has gone through the likes of SARS, they get it.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
If we are at 19 million Italy must be at 300 million. Which doesn't quite work.
You mean reached saturation. Which is possible - remember that they are (just like every other country) 10 days behind. That is, the number we are seeing are the result of what happened 10 days ago.
Quite clearly, if you look at the varying reported infection rates in different places in Italy, the whole nation cannot be at saturation. In fact, to give one specific, I think you can safely say that Milan cannot be anywhere remotely close to saturation.
I made predictions for the course of the Italian outbreak a couple of weeks ago: 40k cases (on current diagnosis) / 2k deaths in this geographically limited outbreak, 400k cases / 20k deaths overall.
It looks like, for this outbreak, both the geographical spread, which I only foresaw fully hitting a few more provinces given lockdown., and the death rate, were low, though I don't think my 40k figure looks too silly yet. It is clear the geographic spread in major cities will be Italy's story this week, Milan, Florence, Bologna have slowed the curve but have yet to peak, Turin is accelerating rapidly, Rome and Naples are on slightly slower but upwards curves. And the effects of the full lockdown have some days to work through.
That considered, my estimates are now, 70k cases, 7000 deaths for this outbreak, but with hope of some medical mitigation and a lower multiplier because more locations have been expected this time, 500k cases, 40k deaths overall. (Btw I noted the CSO quote 20k UK deaths as a good outcome at one of the press conferences earlier in the week)
Do we have today's numbers from Italy yet?
My expectation is that today or tomorrow will see the peak of reported new cases for the country, and it will start to decline after that.
This means that real new cases peaked sometime between last Thursday and last Sunday, and we're only see it now in the reported numbers.
As I've said, too many major cities now on exponential phase, some with delayed peak, some with rapid peak, to call the top just yet. I think this gets worse into mid next week now, but the drop off from the top will hopefully be quite fast.
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
I'm buying now.
The key will be to avoid buying shares in companies that literally won`t make it through all of this. This fear is why the FTSE250 index has been hit even harder than the FTSE100.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
The general trend over the last few weeks is for weekend news and anxieties to cause drops at the beginning of the week, with soft recoveries as the week goes on, and great volatility.
The bottom of a bear market is usually months or years rather than weeks after the peak. I cannot see it being greatly different even in these unusual circumstances.
I’m inclined to agree. Currently the markets are in the “relief that the world hasn’t ended next week as we feared” stage. Which may last into next week, but surely bad news from the US (where confirmed cases appear to be rising more than anywhere else?) will bring this to an end.
My trading advice would be to buy FTSE, Asian and European markets but balance with an equal sized sell bet on the US.
Even without worsening medical news (highly likely for at least 2-3 more weeks), we haven't yet seen any major retail or hospitality chains fall over. That is pretty certain to happen, both here and in the USA. Then there will be the ballooning deficits, falling tax revenues and profit warnings to come.
This was a highly geared economy based on consumer spending, but that gearing works in both directions. The bad economic news will continue long after the bad medical news.
You're booked in at the Bay Horse Monday 6th April, 10.30 to 10.50 am. There will be a fee for missed appointments unless 24 hours cancellation notice is given.
Open to offers for my Thursday pub quiz with £3/pint of beer night slot...
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
I'm buying now.
The key will be to avoid buying shares in companies that literally won`t make it through all of this. This fear is why the FTSE250 index has been hit even harder than the FTSE100.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
The general trend over the last few weeks is for weekend news and anxieties to cause drops at the beginning of the week, with soft recoveries as the week goes on, and great volatility.
The bottom of a bear market is usually months or years rather than weeks after the peak. I cannot see it being greatly different even in these unusual circumstances.
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
I'm buying now.
The key will be to avoid buying shares in companies that literally won`t make it through all of this. This fear is why the FTSE250 index has been hit even harder than the FTSE100.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
The general trend over the last few weeks is for weekend news and anxieties to cause drops at the beginning of the week, with soft recoveries as the week goes on, and great volatility.
The bottom of a bear market is usually months or years rather than weeks after the peak. I cannot see it being greatly different even in these unusual circumstances.
Those overall numbers are pretty much unchanged from the very start. A smidgen under 1% of those who catch the virus will die from it. The great unknown is how many will contract it.
Yes. It's also the symptomatic Case Fatality Rate. Not the Infection Fatality Rate. A really important distinction since it will reduce mortality further.
This is the crucial question. Because it is becoming clear from the statistics from Vo and from Iceland (which are the only two places I know of, where asymptomatic people have been tested) that there are a significant number of aymptomatic people above and beyond those who test positive.
This, I suspect, is also the reason for the difference between the German figures and everywhere else. Simply, they're catching lots of people without symptoms.
The last paragraph of that article is correct, the next French Presidental election is Le Pens to lose.
There's a real dearth of polling on the French Presidential election, which is really quite shocking. However, it does look wonderfully close, with both Macron and Le Pen in the high 20s according to Wikipedia.
Wow, will have to use my newfangled passport and see if I can register to vote
As is often said though, the run-off format of the French election militates against the FN. Macron is transfer-friendly, Le Pen is not.
The key will be to avoid buying shares in companies that literally won`t make it through all of this. This fear is why the FTSE250 index has been hit even harder than the FTSE100.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
Yes. I am going to drip it in on bad days. And hedge with index puts in case this really is End Of Days.
Comments
However, again this combined now with the irresponsible media, everybody will start thinking, ahhh f##k, if i get it, i get it, i am going to get it anyway or have to be locked down for a year. Down the spoons we go Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Which is not what the egg-heads are saying and if people don't listen this will be a mega cluster fuck.
If it is 10% of the population, the fatality rate is a lot less than reported (bigger numerator). So my assertion that it may peak soon is based on the level of current infection. It can't go over 100%. Probably peak at say 50-60% when R becomes <1. If it is doubling every four days, that means 8-10 days to peak infection and 15-17 days to peak daily deaths.
Unbelievable - needless to say we will not be seeing them for a while
I know they don't want to scare the horses, but "mild" includes serious pneumonia and the worst flu you will have ever had. They used it to mean you don't need hospitalization and you aren't in danger of dying.
If it was said say 50% of you will get the worst flu ever, you will get pneumonia, and explain just what that is like, hopefully people would understand what the fuss is about. I had bad pneumonia and I never want it again, it was like I was fighting to breath.
FTSE250 includes the101st - 350th largest companies. If you can find companies in that range which will very likely survive then they would be the ones to consider buying now.
I`d also say be careful of high dividend-paying companies. These companies are unlikely IMO to be able to maintain the dividend at the current level (if at all). When these companies admit this this will drive their shares down again for sure.
This is London (outskirts) - You have a mixture of people there from bank manager to builder
If Boris is incapable of communicating clearly and accurately, that's his responsibility to deal with, and it's the media's responsibility to report how what he says differs from the truth.
He feels trapped - doesn't want to work, but needs an income to keep a roof over his head
Now yes if you listen carefully they said it will alternate, but most people don't listen / read past the headline. It is why Boris' comments were poor.
You watch they will vox pop people in the next few days and they will all say no way I am going to stay locked down for a year, lets all go the pub, lets all go the pub.
That’s pretty helpful for some people.
CI: Case Isolation. You have symptoms, you self-isolate
HQ: Home Quarantining. Anyone in your family has it, you all quarantine yourself.
SD: Social Distancing.
PC: Closure of Schools and Universities.
This, I suspect, is also the reason for the difference between the German figures and everywhere else. Simply, they're catching lots of people without symptoms.
Their entire ethos is "We make a drama out of a crisis"
The bottom of a bear market is usually months or years rather than weeks after the peak. I cannot see it being greatly different even in these unusual circumstances.
I made predictions for the course of the Italian outbreak a couple of weeks ago: 40k cases (on current diagnosis) / 2k deaths in this geographically limited outbreak, 400k cases / 20k deaths overall.
It looks like, for this outbreak, both the geographical spread, which I only foresaw fully hitting a few more provinces given lockdown., and the death rate, were low, though I don't think my 40k figure looks too silly yet. It is clear the geographic spread in major cities will be Italy's story this week, Milan, Florence, Bologna have slowed the curve but have yet to peak, Turin is accelerating rapidly, Rome and Naples are on slightly slower but upwards curves. And the effects of the full lockdown have some days to work through.
That considered, my estimates are now, 70k cases, 7000 deaths for this outbreak, but with hope of some medical mitigation and a lower multiplier because more locations have been expected this time, 500k cases, 40k deaths overall.
(Btw I noted the CSO quote 20k UK deaths as a good outcome at one of the press conferences earlier in the week)
A lot hangs on the credibility of the detail of the government’s rescue package announcement. If there is a catch in the small print, things could turn south rapidly.
The question is what the growth rate will be post lockdown.
As in, if we implement the same measures South Korea has (which don't seem to have done its economy any harm), can we drive R0 down to around 1. In which case you have an ongoing minor issue with around 50 to 100 people catching the virus each day, but no risk of health services getting overwhelmed, and most people continuing their normal lives.
Or, will we have better treatment or a vaccine?
Or, will growth simply be slower because there are fewer people to be infected, and we're all a little better about handwashing?
Whatever happens, we won't be ignorant this time around.
My trading advice would be to buy FTSE, Asian and European markets but balance with an equal sized sell bet on the US.
My expectation is that today or tomorrow will see the peak of reported new cases for the country, and it will start to decline after that.
This means that real new cases peaked sometime between last Thursday and last Sunday, and we're only see it now in the reported numbers.
They have a good reason for doing so.
This means they catch a lot of asymptomatic and presymptomatic spreaders of the disease. But it costs a lot of money. And can only be done if you've already gotten the virus under control.
Here, despite wall to wall coverage, large parts of society don't seem to think this is serious. I am not sure they would have agreed to go into lockdown when the very first few cases appeared and the dominant view was it is just flu.
This was a highly geared economy based on consumer spending, but that gearing works in both directions. The bad economic news will continue long after the bad medical news.
NEW THREAD
This, I suspect, is also the reason for the difference between the German figures and everywhere else. Simply, they're catching lots of people without symptoms.
Where or what is Vo?
As is often said though, the run-off format of the French election militates against the FN. Macron is transfer-friendly, Le Pen is not.