Government really doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
One hand is telling my father to come out of retirement to help the NHS, another hand tells him that he's in a vulnerable group (60s and diabetic) so should engage in extreme social distancing.
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
If your parents do not work in a key worker role then you will not be allowed back into school for the foreseeable future, end of conversation.
LOL you really don't have a clue do you. "End of conversation" indeed. Schools haven't been given proper guidance. Or the time to plan this. They don't know what profession the parents of their pupils have. Nor do they have time to find out between 2am this morning and 3pm this afternoon. Nor will we have primary school teachers physically stopping the children of desperate / physically intimidating parents come in like they are some kind of police officer.
Like I said, do keep it going. You are the IQ inspiration for those drunken British tourists we see in Benidorm
Yes they do, the government has issued guidance on which parents are keyworkers and those parents can provide proof of that employment from their employers and if if a headteacher admits any other parents' children from next week he will be acting illegally and potentially risking arrest
Arrest? What arrestable offence will he or she be committing? Novel application of criminal law you have going on here.
Within a month it is quite possible legislation will have been passed making it a criminal offence for the owners of pubs, hotels, cafes, restaurants, gyms etc to keep their premises open when the health advice has been to close them and the same would apply to headteachers of schools opening to children of parents who are not key workers
Tim Martin is under fire this morning for saying "my pubs stay open". But wouldn't they stay open? There is no legal instruction to close them.
Just been out for my constitutional growling at anyone who gets too close - highly effective until you meet another growler.
Shops much quieter than yesterday but still queuing outside Iceland. All the old lags who frequent Wetherspoons are there in their usual places. Plenty of other people in though I notice most pubs have closed their kitchens and are basically drinks only.
Martin is playing a game here - he's happy to make money and "provide a social service" and will happily castigate the Government if he is forced to close.
Got paid today. Gives me a lot of cash. Mortgage payment goes out on Monday. Would you ask for a payment holiday or not? I may have to in April. Am I being overly cautious?
I think they're only offering 3 month holidays, so that may be a factor. Not sure if repeated holidays are on the cards if this goes on for a while.
Social distancing restrictions need to be in place for "at least most of a year", according to scientists advising the government.
Evidence from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which is advising ministers on the UK's response to the coronavirus pandemic, has been published by the government.
It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday that the UK could "turn the tide" against COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, in 12 weeks.
However, evidence from SAGE has cast some doubt on this claim.
"It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity," the scientists noted.
"These would need to be in place for at least most of a year.
"Under such a policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures."
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
If your parents do not work in a key worker role then you will not be allowed back into school for the foreseeable future, end of conversation.
LOL you really don't have a clue do you. "End of conversation" indeed. Schools haven't been given proper guidance. Or the time to plan this. They don't know what profession the parents of their pupils have. Nor do they have time to find out between 2am this morning and 3pm this afternoon. Nor will we have primary school teachers physically stopping the children of desperate / physically intimidating parents come in like they are some kind of police officer.
Like I said, do keep it going. You are the IQ inspiration for those drunken British tourists we see in Benidorm
They only have until 3pm? What happens then.
In all seriousness, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some form of certification process at some point to demonstrate your job fell in the critical category.
At 3pm pupils start leaving for home. If schools are to issue communications to parents there's your deadline. As for certification will the slightly built female primary school teacher be enforcing the certification to the burly dad aggressively thrusting her pupil at her...?
All our coms with parents are via e-mail. We have long since learned that letters sent home with students mostly don’t get there.
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
If your parents do not work in a key worker role then you will not be allowed back into school for the foreseeable future, end of conversation.
LOL you really don't have a clue do you. "End of conversation" indeed. Schools haven't been given proper guidance. Or the time to plan this. They don't know what profession the parents of their pupils have. Nor do they have time to find out between 2am this morning and 3pm this afternoon. Nor will we have primary school teachers physically stopping the children of desperate / physically intimidating parents come in like they are some kind of police officer.
Like I said, do keep it going. You are the IQ inspiration for those drunken British tourists we see in Benidorm
Yes they do, the government has issued guidance on which parents are keyworkers and those parents can provide proof of that employment from their employers and if if a headteacher admits any other parents' children from next week he will be acting illegally and potentially risking arrest
Arrest? What arrestable offence will he or she be committing? Novel application of criminal law you have going on here.
It's part of the new coronavirus bill. The SoS can restrict access to schooling to certain groups of people.
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
If your parents do not work in a key worker role then you will not be allowed back into school for the foreseeable future, end of conversation.
LOL you really don't have a clue do you. "End of conversation" indeed. Schools haven't been given proper guidance. Or the time to plan this. They don't know what profession the parents of their pupils have. Nor do they have time to find out between 2am this morning and 3pm this afternoon. Nor will we have primary school teachers physically stopping the children of desperate / physically intimidating parents come in like they are some kind of police officer.
Like I said, do keep it going. You are the IQ inspiration for those drunken British tourists we see in Benidorm
Yes they do, the government has issued guidance on which parents are keyworkers and those parents can provide proof of that employment from their employers and if if a headteacher admits any other parents' children from next week he will be acting illegally and potentially risking arrest
Arrest? What arrestable offence will he or she be committing? Novel application of criminal law you have going on here.
Within a month it is quite possible legislation will have been passed making it a criminal offence for the owners of pubs, hotels, cafes, restaurants, gyms etc to keep their premises open when the health advice has been to close them and the same would apply to headteachers of schools opening to children of parents who are not key workers
But there is no such legislation allowing for arrest from next week.
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
Not sure about the children of non key workers going into school next week. Very clear from my daughter's school that if you haven't registered with them as a key worker by today, your children cannot attend school from next week. Nor can they even access the building to collect to anything they might have left behind.
The schools got the key worker memo dropped this morning. Not yesterday as Williamson promised. This morning. So they now have a rough guide on what a key worker is and they have a 6 hours to do the plan. Do schools collect data on what kids parents do? No. Why would they collect such a thing.
So by the start of next week there will be chaos and what you will find in practice, depending on the area obviously, is that by week two schools will be occupied mainly by the kids with 'needs' with a smattering of key workers kids.
How lovely for those teachers, who could have otherwise have been looking after their own kids. They will have to go in, take the high risk of Covid19 in order to mainly look after the kids of parents who can't be arsed.
It's the Blitz, 21st century style.
6 hours? In times of crises people are still unable to work over the weekend?
They probably will, they will be working through Easter and Summer too. They are on a front line.
But do you not see the point here? It is chaos where there didn't need to be chaos if a plan had been put into place weeks ago.
The second point is that the policy is fatally flawed because it goes through the government sausage factory which then eliminates the policies primary purpose, which is to slow the spread of the virus.
It has all sorts of secondary negative outcomes such as: mixed messages, confusion and a destruction of morale.
I will quote you, directly from the man who change the purchase of ammunition for the British Army to a supplier who ammunition caused the guns to jam (due to shite propellant).
"The correct procedures must be followed - and they were. The issues were not my problem."
When I pointed out that a trivial amount of knowledge of firearms would have pointed out the problem..
"Do you mean that ammunition purchase for the British Army should be organised by gun-nuts?"
He has left the civil service I believe, but I'm quite sure his colleagues can maintain his example.
I remember the ammo we got issued for the Bosnian festivities was shit garbage. The rumour was it was a batch rejected by the Pakistani army but snapped up cheap by the MoD. I saw it fail to penetrate cardboard targets at 15m several times. It would have been fuck all use against a shaven headed Serb war criminal who was coming to cut your balls off.
Social distancing restrictions need to be in place for "at least most of a year", according to scientists advising the government.
Evidence from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which is advising ministers on the UK's response to the coronavirus pandemic, has been published by the government.
It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday that the UK could "turn the tide" against COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, in 12 weeks.
However, evidence from SAGE has cast some doubt on this claim.
"It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity," the scientists noted.
"These would need to be in place for at least most of a year.
"Under such a policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures."
It’s interesting. The advice being quoted was dated Monday (the 16th) whereas Boris’s 12 weeks was yesterday.
According to journo sources on Twitter, this afternoon will see cinemas, gyms etc in London ordered to close. No news on pubs.
The cinemas are still open? WTF
I think some chains had already taken the decision to close, but there's been no compulsion to do anything. Sky Sources saying pubs getting closed in London.
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
If your parents do not work in a key worker role then you will not be allowed back into school for the foreseeable future, end of conversation.
LOL you really don't have a clue do you. "End of conversation" indeed. Schools haven't been given proper guidance. Or the time to plan this. They don't know what profession the parents of their pupils have. Nor do they have time to find out between 2am this morning and 3pm this afternoon. Nor will we have primary school teachers physically stopping the children of desperate / physically intimidating parents come in like they are some kind of police officer.
Like I said, do keep it going. You are the IQ inspiration for those drunken British tourists we see in Benidorm
Yes they do, the government has issued guidance on which parents are keyworkers and those parents can provide proof of that employment from their employers and if if a headteacher admits any other parents' children from next week he will be acting illegally and potentially risking arrest
Arrest? What arrestable offence will he or she be committing? Novel application of criminal law you have going on here.
It's part of the new coronavirus bill. The SoS can restrict access to schooling to certain groups of people.
I know but I can’t see where a criminal offence would have been committed for in this instance
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
If your parents do not work in a key worker role then you will not be allowed back into school for the foreseeable future, end of conversation.
LOL you really don't have a clue do you. "End of conversation" indeed. Schools haven't been given proper guidance. Or the time to plan this. They don't know what profession the parents of their pupils have. Nor do they have time to find out between 2am this morning and 3pm this afternoon. Nor will we have primary school teachers physically stopping the children of desperate / physically intimidating parents come in like they are some kind of police officer.
Like I said, do keep it going. You are the IQ inspiration for those drunken British tourists we see in Benidorm
They only have until 3pm? What happens then.
In all seriousness, I wouldn't be surprised if there was some form of certification process at some point to demonstrate your job fell in the critical category.
At 3pm pupils start leaving for home. If schools are to issue communications to parents there's your deadline. As for certification will the slightly built female primary school teacher be enforcing the certification to the burly dad aggressively thrusting her pupil at her...?
I don't see why that's the last possible moment to tell them. There can be told to check the school's website for additional information on Sunday evening, for example. Although I think the communication has to be mainly the other way, with parents informing the school that they fall into one of the categories. So the time the children leave really doesn't come into it.
In the situation you describe, if they were belligerent I'm sure the police would be called.
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
If your parents do not work in a key worker role then you will not be allowed back into school for the foreseeable future, end of conversation.
LOL you really don't have a clue do you. "End of conversation" indeed. Schools haven't been given proper guidance. Or the time to plan this. They don't know what profession the parents of their pupils have. Nor do they have time to find out between 2am this morning and 3pm this afternoon. Nor will we have primary school teachers physically stopping the children of desperate / physically intimidating parents come in like they are some kind of police officer.
Like I said, do keep it going. You are the IQ inspiration for those drunken British tourists we see in Benidorm
Yes they do, the government has issued guidance on which parents are keyworkers and those parents can provide proof of that employment from their employers and if if a headteacher admits any other parents' children from next week he will be acting illegally and potentially risking arrest
Arrest? What arrestable offence will he or she be committing? Novel application of criminal law you have going on here.
It's part of the new coronavirus bill. The SoS can restrict access to schooling to certain groups of people.
I know but I can’t see where a criminal offence would have been committed for in this instance
I suppose any number of categories depending on how aggressive they were being. If they no longer have a right to schooling, they have no right being on the school premises.
Government really doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
One hand is telling my father to come out of retirement to help the NHS, another hand tells him that he's in a vulnerable group (60s and diabetic) so should engage in extreme social distancing.
There are a surprising number of positions in the NHS that are filled by doctors, but do not involve going anywhere near patients. Often in office buildings, not hospitals. Decisions requiring medical knowledge, I suppose.
So it would make sense to send people to fill such posts so that people can go back to the wards.
The role of the BoE with monetary policy and CoE with fiscal policy is to balance supply and demand so that the economy expands at a sustainable rate of say 2%. You want to avoid wild deflationary or inflationary swings and you certainly don't want to end up like Zimbabwe.
Aren't you conflating economic policy (growth targets) with money supply (inflation) here?
The National debt will continue to grow and that's a good thing as long as the interest payments are sustainable. If the interest is paid to the BoE it doesn't matter anyway as it is remitted back to the Treasury.
Money supply (printing money) and national debt are surely separate issues. Get money supply wrong and you get inflation, let debt get out of control and you end up spending more on interest than education. It is possible to have one issue without the other.
If government borrows from the BoE the interest payments don't matter. They are remitted back. The debt could be simply written off.
Inflation policy is not just monetary policy (interest rates). It is also fiscal policy using taxation to moderate or stimulate demand as required to maintain a sustainable growth rate. It's all economic policy.
Government really doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
One hand is telling my father to come out of retirement to help the NHS, another hand tells him that he's in a vulnerable group (60s and diabetic) so should engage in extreme social distancing.
There are a surprising number of positions in the NHS that are filled by doctors, but do not involve going anywhere near patients. Often in office buildings, not hospitals. Decisions requiring medical knowledge, I suppose.
So it would make sense to send people to fill such posts so that people can go back to the wards.
Also what about taking over GP duties and doing the vast majority over skype?
Government really doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
One hand is telling my father to come out of retirement to help the NHS, another hand tells him that he's in a vulnerable group (60s and diabetic) so should engage in extreme social distancing.
There are a surprising number of positions in the NHS that are filled by doctors, but do not involve going anywhere near patients. Often in office buildings, not hospitals. Decisions requiring medical knowledge, I suppose.
So it would make sense to send people to fill such posts so that people can go back to the wards.
I'm expecting him to be manning a 111 line from home.
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
Enlighten me please. If schools are to close because kids can be asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19, what is the logic is sending key workers' kids to school? Is the idea to infect key workers, because if the former logic is valid, then the latter point follows...
They have to keep working, so while there is a risk, it is better than having them off work and watch the whole system collapse.
Well then, surely we are back full circle to "Herd Immunity" in that case?
Government really doesn't know its arse from its elbow.
One hand is telling my father to come out of retirement to help the NHS, another hand tells him that he's in a vulnerable group (60s and diabetic) so should engage in extreme social distancing.
There are a surprising number of positions in the NHS that are filled by doctors, but do not involve going anywhere near patients. Often in office buildings, not hospitals. Decisions requiring medical knowledge, I suppose.
So it would make sense to send people to fill such posts so that people can go back to the wards.
I'm expecting him to manning a 111 line from home.
That would be a very sensible use of people like your father's expertise.
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
If your parents do not work in a key worker role then you will not be allowed back into school for the foreseeable future, end of conversation.
LOL you really don't have a clue do you. "End of conversation" indeed. Schools haven't been given proper guidance. Or the time to plan this. They don't know what profession the parents of their pupils have. Nor do they have time to find out between 2am this morning and 3pm this afternoon. Nor will we have primary school teachers physically stopping the children of desperate / physically intimidating parents come in like they are some kind of police officer.
Like I said, do keep it going. You are the IQ inspiration for those drunken British tourists we see in Benidorm
Yes they do, the government has issued guidance on which parents are keyworkers and those parents can provide proof of that employment from their employers and if if a headteacher admits any other parents' children from next week he will be acting illegally and potentially risking arrest
Arrest? What arrestable offence will he or she be committing? Novel application of criminal law you have going on here.
It's part of the new coronavirus bill. The SoS can restrict access to schooling to certain groups of people.
I know but I can’t see where a criminal offence would have been committed for in this instance
I suppose any number of categories depending on how aggressive they were being. If they no longer have a right to schooling, they have no right being on the school premises.
Social distancing restrictions need to be in place for "at least most of a year", according to scientists advising the government.
Evidence from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which is advising ministers on the UK's response to the coronavirus pandemic, has been published by the government.
It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday that the UK could "turn the tide" against COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, in 12 weeks.
However, evidence from SAGE has cast some doubt on this claim.
"It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity," the scientists noted.
"These would need to be in place for at least most of a year.
"Under such a policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures."
It’s interesting. The advice being quoted was dated Monday (the 16th) whereas Boris’s 12 weeks was yesterday.
Looking at what was quoted there it kind of makes sense if what they are thinking is an initial 12 weeks hard isolation followed by an easing for a period and then a return to hard isolation again. Which is what the advise quoted seems to indicate although without exact figures put on it.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Just had a message from my wife. Her school really is carrying on as normal. "Business as usual" is how the Headmaster put it. Everyone from him down to the cleaners are to go in. What's the legal aspect to this? As it's private and the government is a bit wooly in its advice, is there anything to stop it?
Boris said the government have legal powers to enforce this. I don't know if he was being Trumpian on this or not, or if it is in the bill they are currently passing?
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
And when people realise this next week? It will be simple. Parent has non key worker job. But told "if you don't turn up you don't get paid" or worse. Social media / friends report schools still open. So their kids go back to school. HYUFD no doubt thinks they should just accept the sack. In the real world people will realise that the government have utterly fracked this up and resume normality.
Not sure about the children of non key workers going into school next week. Very clear from my daughter's school that if you haven't registered with them as a key worker by today, your children cannot attend school from next week. Nor can they even access the building to collect to anything they might have left behind.
The schools got the key worker memo dropped this morning. Not yesterday as Williamson promised. This morning. So they now have a rough guide on what a key worker is and they have a 6 hours to do the plan. Do schools collect data on what kids parents do? No. Why would they collect such a thing.
So by the start of next week there will be chaos and what you will find in practice, depending on the area obviously, is that by week two schools will be occupied mainly by the kids with 'needs' with a smattering of key workers kids.
How lovely for those teachers, who could have otherwise have been looking after their own kids. They will have to go in, take the high risk of Covid19 in order to mainly look after the kids of parents who can't be arsed.
It's the Blitz, 21st century style.
6 hours? In times of crises people are still unable to work over the weekend?
They probably will, they will be working through Easter and Summer too. They are on a front line.
But do you not see the point here? It is chaos where there didn't need to be chaos if a plan had been put into place weeks ago.
The second point is that the policy is fatally flawed because it goes through the government sausage factory which then eliminates the policies primary purpose, which is to slow the spread of the virus.
It has all sorts of secondary negative outcomes such as: mixed messages, confusion and a destruction of morale.
I will quote you, directly from the man who change the purchase of ammunition for the British Army to a supplier who ammunition caused the guns to jam (due to shite propellant).
"The correct procedures must be followed - and they were. The issues were not my problem."
When I pointed out that a trivial amount of knowledge of firearms would have pointed out the problem..
"Do you mean that ammunition purchase for the British Army should be organised by gun-nuts?"
He has left the civil service I believe, but I'm quite sure his colleagues can maintain his example.
I remember the ammo we got issued for the Bosnian festivities was shit garbage. The rumour was it was a batch rejected by the Pakistani army but snapped up cheap by the MoD. I saw it fail to penetrate cardboard targets at 15m several times. It would have been fuck all use against a shaven headed Serb war criminal who was coming to cut your balls off.
This was the stuff for the M2 copies that the British Army uses. The moron bought from a third world supplier - it used cordite type propellant. Fouled the works in 3 rounds.
The claim (as part of the cover up) that Ol'Ma Duce was unreliable was interesting....
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
Enlighten me please. If schools are to close because kids can be asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19, what is the logic is sending key workers' kids to school? Is the idea to infect key workers, because if the former logic is valid, then the latter point follows...
They have to keep working, so while there is a risk, it is better than having them off work and watch the whole system collapse.
Well then, surely we are back full circle to "Herd Immunity" in that case?
That's eventually what is going to have to happen, or a vaccine. If the NHS can't cope already, what is taking out thousands of additional staff going to do? They have to be able to keep working.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Reminds me a report I once commissioned and the analyst said the chance of event x happening was between 20% and 80%.
To enforce what? Schools are NOT closing. I know they told us that schools were closing. I know that a lot of children have had to react to the news. I know that a lot of parents are in a bind because of the announcement. But with a vast list of Key Workers dropped overnight the schools will remain open.
Enlighten me please. If schools are to close because kids can be asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19, what is the logic is sending key workers' kids to school? Is the idea to infect key workers, because if the former logic is valid, then the latter point follows...
They have to keep working, so while there is a risk, it is better than having them off work and watch the whole system collapse.
Well then, surely we are back full circle to "Herd Immunity" in that case?
They say in the reports, the only way out is a vaccine or herd immunity. The difference now is that they have seen the stats from Italy and the system can't cope even if just younger people get it. It is not really any different to the likes of Germany.
So instead it herd immunity not as a policy, but the reality, by a number of waves of restrictions.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Which connects directly back to the issue of the "iceberg" which we have talked about here a number of times. The Icelandic report, for example, *suggested* that 95% of the infected would have no/ultra mild symptoms - to the point that they didn't know that they could have had something.
The 19 million number is quite staggering in a way. It suggests that we will hit herd immunity levels very soon....
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Skimming the research, some of it looks pretty half half-arsed to me (nb I am neither expert nor specialist.
This point, in the schools closure document, was emphasised several times: The larger impacts are seen when closures take place early in a UK outbreak.... Guess we blew that one.
There are several fronts in the war against the invisible enemy: 1. Social containment 2. Hospital capacity ramp-up 3. Industrialisation of Testing, including serology 4. Essential food supply and logistics 5. Economy 6. The race for a vaccine
Right now we don’t really know how long the war is going to last. We at least can see though that if we succeed at (1) for the time being, it gives us more time for (2) and (3).
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I said the media would do this if they got the raw reports, they would just pick the extrema figures. I haven't read this, but I bet there are all sorts of complexities and nuances and is the result of considering a massive range of actions and possibilities.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Skimming the research, some of it looks pretty half half-arsed to me (nb I am neither expert nor specialist.
This point, in the schools closure document, was emphasised several times: The larger impacts are seen when closures take place early in a UK outbreak.... Guess we blew that one.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Which connects directly back to the issue of the "iceberg" which we have talked about here a number of times. The Icelandic report, for example, *suggested* that 95% of the infected would have no/ultra mild symptoms - to the point that they didn't know that they could have had something.
The 19 million number is quite staggering in a way. It suggests that we will hit herd immunity levels very soon....
I haven't read the report, so I don't know if the different infection rates assumed were based on anything more than guesses.
Saying that, we really need that antibody test to work out just how many have already had it.
I would expect that most genuine key workers (nurses, deliverymen, farmers, firemen etc) are in low risk groups – they tend to be youngish and fit and have active jobs that require them to be physically active much of the time. By no means am I advocating this, nor suggesting it is part of some sort of hidden strategy, but just pointing out that there are worse cohorts to have develop herd immunity.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Except it's not. The Foreign Secretary again expressed his opposition to delay only this week. The end of the transition period remains a top priority for Leavers such as Mr Habib and Mr Raab.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
My laptop is constantly being logged out of PB this morning. It’s frustrating.
Anyway the key, as I and many others have been saying on here is to keep the income flowing and as many jobs as possible intact until the virus is over. Boris reckons we are 12 weeks from that. It should be possible for the government to pay everyone’s wages for that long. They are already paying the 40% in the public sector. They need to keep the tax base for the recovery.
At the moment even those who are still paid are not spending. Restaurants, hotels, holidays, cars, cinema, home improvements, nothing is going to happen until we can move about freely and without fear. But we will need all of those things in due course. More than ever in many cases.
Boris' 12 week reckoning didn't make it to the end of the news conference.
Boris has sensibly left the heavy lifting to the experts, perhaps he should engage an expert communicator to run the press conferences.
"12 weeks" could mean: - 12 weeks to the peak (with however many extra weeks or months until its subsided enough to take down measures) - 12 weeks to the first peak, with however many cycles of on-and-off again needed to keep the figures down until we get a vaccine (median expectation 18 months; have seen people talking about as little as six months which would be great) - - 12 weeks until it's all over, tea and medals for all.
Sadly, although I think it's the feeling he wanted to give, the latter could well be least likely. Regardless, after three months of shutdown of the hospitality and airline sectors, they wouldn't be coming back unchanged. And those working in those sectors face a hellish time of uncertainty, regardless.
So, yes - he absolutely needs to do something for them.
on those subsequent peaks we arent using anything like the ICU capacity of the first. so couldnt you shorten the lockdown phases and extend the liberty phases to limit the financial damage. yes more people would get infected and more die but hopefully there will still be an ICU bed to give them the best chance.
Yep; that was in the modelling as well (bear in mind that as more data comes in, the model would need to be updated and we haven't seen any updates). The scale of the difference in deaths is in the table below:
Interesting. Many thanks. Hopefully we're not in the red column.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
If we are at 19 million Italy must be at 300 million. Which doesn't quite work.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
Yes but the fatality rate will be very low - comparable with seasonal flu. We can unlock.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Except it's not. The Foreign Secretary again expressed his opposition to delay only this week. The end of the transition period remains a top priority for Leavers such as Mr Habib and Mr Raab.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
The Foreign Secretary dismissed it when it was suggested by someone else, he didn't bring it up. It is an utterly inappropriate thing to be bringing up right now and long may they dismiss it.
Once COVID19 has been dealt with we can concentrate on whether we sign a new trade deal with Europe or not.
I suppose any number of categories depending on how aggressive they were being. If they no longer have a right to schooling, they have no right being on the school premises.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Except it's not. The Foreign Secretary again expressed his opposition to delay only this week. The end of the transition period remains a top priority for Leavers such as Mr Habib and Mr Raab.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
Not true. There are plenty of Leavers on here - the vast majority in fact - who have said we should postpone and that not to do so is stupid.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Except it's not. The Foreign Secretary again expressed his opposition to delay only this week. The end of the transition period remains a top priority for Leavers such as Mr Habib and Mr Raab.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
No that's not fair. Lots of Leavers are in fact calling for a delay – such as Richard T and Casino on here.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
Yes but the fatality rate will be very low - comparable with seasonal flu. We can unlock.
You're booked in at the Bay Horse Monday 6th April, 10.30 to 10.50 am. There will be a fee for missed appointments unless 24 hours cancellation notice is given.
Got paid today. Gives me a lot of cash. Mortgage payment goes out on Monday. Would you ask for a payment holiday or not? I may have to in April. Am I being overly cautious?
I think they're only offering 3 month holidays, so that may be a factor. Not sure if repeated holidays are on the cards if this goes on for a while.
Didn't know that. But March, April, May might be enough (rather than April to June). I'll know by end of April whether I'm done or not.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Except it's not. The Foreign Secretary again expressed his opposition to delay only this week. The end of the transition period remains a top priority for Leavers such as Mr Habib and Mr Raab.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
The Foreign Secretary dismissed it when it was suggested by someone else, he didn't bring it up. It is an utterly inappropriate thing to be bringing up right now and long may they dismiss it.
Once COVID19 has been dealt with we can concentrate on whether we sign a new trade deal with Europe or not.
That is absolutely not what the Foreign Secretary said. He could have said that the matter was being kept under review in the light of the developing crisis. Instead he chose to reaffirm that the deadline of the end of the year remained in his view the appropriate one.
@Anabobazina, I saw you mentioned Britannia Sachas in Manchester last night.
Coincidentally, also the worst hotel I’ve ever stayed in, including the time my hotel in Tokyo *caught fire*.
Ha ha, yes I can certainly accept that you are not stretching a point.
It must have been 15 years ago. In those days, Britannia hadn't earned its notorious reputation or at least I wasn't aware of it.
We booked our own travel and accommodation for business trips and I just chose it based on geographical convenience – I was master of my own downfall!
It was about 15 years for me too. I was on a business trip and from vague memory hotel capacity was constrained in Manchester - it was one of the few places available.
They say in the reports, the only way out is a vaccine or herd immunity.
I wonder if there might be a third way - rather than a single magic bullet, a few dozen small elements combine to limit the virus. Hygiene and distancing, better treatment drugs/methods (to limit both health impact and more quickly free hospital capacity), more testing to isolate/treat quickly, antibodies test to release people back into the economy, Korean-style location data to predict who might be in danger, isolate the oldies from sources of infection, better statistical understanding of the virus as a whole, and lots of other small policies or medical advances.
If we can chip away at both the rates of fatality and infectiousness, it wouldn't be such a threat. Wishful thinking maybe, but given a vaccine could be years away it might be our only route.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
Yes but the fatality rate will be very low - comparable with seasonal flu. We can unlock.
We don't know that yet.
If 19 million have this (and I don't believe that for one second) and the deaths are in the hundreds then that's a third of the population through it already in a couple of weeks.
I don't believe that, but it would certainly indicate a low fatality rate, plus once you're past the peak it will spread slower due to fewer carriers shedding it and fewer people able to be infected.
You're booked in at the Bay Horse Monday 6th April, 10.30 to 10.50 am. There will be a fee for missed appointments unless 24 hours cancellation notice is given.
There are several fronts in the war against the invisible enemy: 1. Social containment 2. Hospital capacity ramp-up 3. Industrialisation of Testing, including serology 4. Essential food supply and logistics 5. Economy 6. The race for a vaccine
Right now we don’t really know how long the war is going to last. We at least can see though that if we succeed at (1) for the time being, it gives us more time for (2) and (3).
Yes. And Industrialisation of Testing, in particular, is moving ahead very fast - to the extent where the entire population of Scotland (say) could be tested within ~20 days. Of course, one will need to repeat these tests but if prioritised to certain sectors that will make a big difference in terms of getting people back to work. I worry that the social containment we are going to have to do will be much more serious than Italy though - they still have construction sites / offices open: we really cannot allow that bar in essential areas.
I was shocked to find that a platform development in Northern Italy was still going ahead in spite of the crisis.
They say in the reports, the only way out is a vaccine or herd immunity.
I wonder if there might be a third way - rather than a single magic bullet, a few dozen small elements combine to limit the virus. Hygiene and distancing, better treatment drugs/methods (to limit both health impact and more quickly free hospital capacity), more testing to isolate/treat quickly, antibodies test to release people back into the economy, Korean-style location data to predict who might be in danger, isolate the oldies from sources of infection, and lots of other small policies or medical advances.
If we can chip away at both the rates of fatality and infectiousness, it wouldn't be such a threat. Wishful thinking maybe, but given a vaccine could be years away it might be our only route.
Most of that is happening anyway - slowly but surely reduce R_zero and slowly but surely make it less fatal.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Except it's not. The Foreign Secretary again expressed his opposition to delay only this week. The end of the transition period remains a top priority for Leavers such as Mr Habib and Mr Raab.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
The Foreign Secretary dismissed it when it was suggested by someone else, he didn't bring it up. It is an utterly inappropriate thing to be bringing up right now and long may they dismiss it.
Once COVID19 has been dealt with we can concentrate on whether we sign a new trade deal with Europe or not.
That is absolutely not what the Foreign Secretary said. He could have said that the matter was being kept under review in the light of the developing crisis. Instead he chose to reaffirm that the deadline of the end of the year remained in his view the appropriate one.
Yes he reaffirmed pre-COVID status quo ante. And they'll continue to do that until they drop COVID and can concentrate on a new policy.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
Yes but the fatality rate will be very low - comparable with seasonal flu. We can unlock.
It's the near fatalities that require the intensive treatment. Or are you suggesting that the near fatalities beome actual fatalities by "unlocking"?
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
Yes but the fatality rate will be very low - comparable with seasonal flu. We can unlock.
We don't know that yet.
If 19 million have this (and I don't believe that for one second) and the deaths are in the hundreds then that's a third of the population through it already in a couple of weeks.
I don't believe that, but it would certainly indicate a low fatality rate, plus once you're past the peak it will spread slower due to fewer carriers shedding it and fewer people able to be infected.
I feel bad for posting that number now, as I don't know what assumptions were made. The two boffins said previously it was likely around 50k. So maybe 100-150k should be taken as the current baseline number?
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
Just f##k off...this is exactly what the egg heads have said from the beginning...they are reporting this as if the government have been hiding info.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
They say in the reports, the only way out is a vaccine or herd immunity.
I wonder if there might be a third way - rather than a single magic bullet, a few dozen small elements combine to limit the virus. Hygiene and distancing, better treatment drugs/methods (to limit both health impact and more quickly free hospital capacity), more testing to isolate/treat quickly, antibodies test to release people back into the economy, Korean-style location data to predict who might be in danger, isolate the oldies from sources of infection, and lots of other small policies or medical advances.
If we can chip away at both the rates of fatality and infectiousness, it wouldn't be such a threat. Wishful thinking maybe, but given a vaccine could be years away it might be our only route.
Well we have to hope that best practice improves, which further reduces mortality rate. I think the problem with this virus is just how easily it spreads, especially during periods when people don't even know they have it. So even Korea, with mega testings etc, still bumping along at 100+ new cases a day.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
I reckon it is nearer 19 million which means it will peak soon.
I admire your optimism. Remember that when we get to the peak only 50% of those that will go on to get it will have had it.
Yes but the fatality rate will be very low - comparable with seasonal flu. We can unlock.
We don't know that yet.
If 19 million have this (and I don't believe that for one second) and the deaths are in the hundreds then that's a third of the population through it already in a couple of weeks.
I don't believe that, but it would certainly indicate a low fatality rate, plus once you're past the peak it will spread slower due to fewer carriers shedding it and fewer people able to be infected.
I feel bad for posting that number now, as I don't know what assumptions were made. The two boffins said previously it was likely around 50k. So maybe 100-150k should be taken as the current baseline number?
There’s no way people will be able to go on like this for a year...
That's what the experts all thought too - hence the initial plan / comment about herd immunity being a medium term goal.
Its like these experts might know a thing or to more than the MSc students and lab tech signing open letters.
Quite.
Herd immunity was never as mental or as 'callous' as was being made out - it was the reality of what we have to face.
"Herd immunity" as part of a short-term strategy deserved all the criticism it got.
It's not mental or callous to argue that infection of most of the population leading to herd immunity is likely (though obviously most experts disagree), but making it a goal was insane. Alternatively, hoping for non-negligible herd immunity from infection of a small proportion of the population was scientifically illiterate.
Herd immunity a year or two from now, due to the development of a vaccine, is a realistic and desirable goal, but that is not what the government sources were talking about.
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
Reminds me a report I once commissioned and the analyst said the chance of event x happening was between 20% and 80%.
How much did you pay for "maybe....maybe not...."?
There’s no way people will be able to go on like this for a year...
That's what the experts all thought too - hence the initial plan / comment about herd immunity being a medium term goal.
Its like these experts might know a thing or to more than the MSc students and lab tech signing open letters.
Quite.
Herd immunity was never as mental or as 'callous' as was being made out - it was the reality of what we have to face.
"Herd immunity" as part of a short-term strategy deserved all the criticism it got.
It's not mental or callous to argue that infection of most of the population leading to herd immunity is likely (though obviously most experts disagree), but making it a goal was insane. Alternatively, hoping for non-negligible herd immunity from infection of a small proportion of the population was scientifically illiterate.
Herd immunity a year or two from now, due to the development of a vaccine, is a realistic and desirable goal, but that is not what the government sources were talking about.
The current Guardian story does not suggest a government relaxed about the way things are progressing: The government was today actively discussing a new clampdown on London with pubs, cinemas and gyms possibly being ordered to close to stop the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.
An announcement could be made within hours, after crisis planners became increasingly concerned that too many people were continuing to ignore social distancing advice, making the spread of the virus more likely.
The British capital is the target of tougher measures because it has the highest rate of infection and deaths so far. Debate within government is continuing about whether non-essential shops - that is those not selling food or medical supplies - would be included in the ban.
The government had been considering a formal ban on Thursday and was braced to announce it - but pulled back. Among senior government figures there is a deep reluctance to issue banning orders.
Officials believe they would have the power to order bans even without special emergency laws to address the pandemic.
Crisis planners and government advisers have been looking at a range of data, such as transport usage in the capital and hospital admissions, to assess if the pleas made on Monday for people to stay home were being heeded.
Continuing anecdotal evidence of people, especially younger Londoners, continuing to go to pubs despite repeated pleas has led to the government believing it may have no choice but to issue the ban....
Telegraph reporting that one of the studies used by the government puts the number of infected between 250,000 and 19 million, using different assumptions about how infectious it is.
Clear as mud.
If we are at 19 million Italy must be at 300 million. Which doesn't quite work.
You mean reached saturation. Which is possible - remember that they are (just like every other country) 10 days behind. That is, the number we are seeing are the result of what happened 10 days ago.
I await with bated breath the denunciations of the many Leavers on here who seem to believe that the government is going to let a mere pandemic deflect it from ending the transition deal on 31 December 2020, despite the repeated public statements to the contrary including this week.
Schools may close, London might be locked down but the end of the transition period is an immutable priority.
Alastair - guess what! The only priority at the moment is fighting the coronavirus. What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
Except it's not. The Foreign Secretary again expressed his opposition to delay only this week. The end of the transition period remains a top priority for Leavers such as Mr Habib and Mr Raab.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
The Foreign Secretary dismissed it when it was suggested by someone else, he didn't bring it up. It is an utterly inappropriate thing to be bringing up right now and long may they dismiss it.
Once COVID19 has been dealt with we can concentrate on whether we sign a new trade deal with Europe or not.
That is absolutely not what the Foreign Secretary said. He could have said that the matter was being kept under review in the light of the developing crisis. Instead he chose to reaffirm that the deadline of the end of the year remained in his view the appropriate one.
Get over it Alastair.
Most sensible people, of whatever strip, will be perfectly happy with the transition being extended.
To be fair, I think we should ask for a twelve month 'pause', so transition ends December 2021, with the option to extend to December 2023 if needed. I suspect the EU would bite our hands off.
FTSE up 2%. Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains. Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today. I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
Comments
One hand is telling my father to come out of retirement to help the NHS, another hand tells him that he's in a vulnerable group (60s and diabetic) so should engage in extreme social distancing.
Shops much quieter than yesterday but still queuing outside Iceland. All the old lags who frequent Wetherspoons are there in their usual places. Plenty of other people in though I notice most pubs have closed their kitchens and are basically drinks only.
Martin is playing a game here - he's happy to make money and "provide a social service" and will happily castigate the Government if he is forced to close.
Evidence from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which is advising ministers on the UK's response to the coronavirus pandemic, has been published by the government.
It comes after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Thursday that the UK could "turn the tide" against COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, in 12 weeks.
However, evidence from SAGE has cast some doubt on this claim.
"It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity," the scientists noted.
"These would need to be in place for at least most of a year.
"Under such a policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures."
It is also why the French approach of saying basically signally 2 weeks lockdown will crack this is not good.
Germany have this will need to last 2 years (off and on), Australia at least 6 months.
So it would make sense to send people to fill such posts so that people can go back to the wards.
Inflation policy is not just monetary policy (interest rates). It is also fiscal policy using taxation to moderate or stimulate demand as required to maintain a sustainable growth rate. It's all economic policy.
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/03/20/coronavirus-man-arrested-on-isle-of-man-for-failing-to-self-iso/
You can go once a month.
Clear as mud.
What is this 'LEAVER' term of which you speak?
The claim (as part of the cover up) that Ol'Ma Duce was unreliable was interesting....
So instead it herd immunity not as a policy, but the reality, by a number of waves of restrictions.
The 19 million number is quite staggering in a way. It suggests that we will hit herd immunity levels very soon....
This point, in the schools closure document, was emphasised several times:
The larger impacts are seen when closures take place early in a UK outbreak....
Guess we blew that one.
1. Social containment
2. Hospital capacity ramp-up
3. Industrialisation of Testing, including serology
4. Essential food supply and logistics
5. Economy
6. The race for a vaccine
Right now we don’t really know how long the war is going to last. We at least can see though that if we succeed at (1) for the time being, it gives us more time for (2) and (3).
Dow futures indicate Dow will open 1% up.
But some bottom fishing going on. Some of the hardest hit sectors are showing big gains.
Go-Ahead, the bus company that I bought shares in yesterday is up 12% today.
I have a feeling that yesterday was maximum panic day. News from now on will be more positive than negative.
Saying that, we really need that antibody test to work out just how many have already had it.
Herd immunity was never as mental or as 'callous' as was being made out - it was the reality of what we have to face.
That such a priority, threatening yet more chaos and disruption on top of the chaos and disruption we already face, is wicked and crazy, is something that not even self-declared moderate Leavers seem to be able to articulate.
Coincidentally, also the worst hotel I’ve ever stayed in, including the time my hotel in Tokyo *caught fire*.
They made it crystal clear from day 1, 2 options, suppression, and we will get a number of waves or one season where we allow spread and gain herd immunity. The update from Italy made it crystal clear way too many younger people will need hospitalization and ICU and crash the system if we went with option 2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39vZ7BE-cdg
It must have been 15 years ago. In those days, Britannia hadn't earned its notorious reputation or at least I wasn't aware of it.
We booked our own travel and accommodation for business trips and I just chose it based on geographical convenience – I was master of my own downfall!
We can unlock.
The Foreign Secretary dismissed it when it was suggested by someone else, he didn't bring it up. It is an utterly inappropriate thing to be bringing up right now and long may they dismiss it.
Once COVID19 has been dealt with we can concentrate on whether we sign a new trade deal with Europe or not.
I was on a business trip and from vague memory hotel capacity was constrained in Manchester - it was one of the few places available.
Never again.
If we can chip away at both the rates of fatality and infectiousness, it wouldn't be such a threat. Wishful thinking maybe, but given a vaccine could be years away it might be our only route.
I don't believe that, but it would certainly indicate a low fatality rate, plus once you're past the peak it will spread slower due to fewer carriers shedding it and fewer people able to be infected.
No longer left v right.
No longer Leaver v Remainer
Now it is the responsible people who social distance v the fuckwits in Spoons.
It's not mental or callous to argue that infection of most of the population leading to herd immunity is likely (though obviously most experts disagree), but making it a goal was insane. Alternatively, hoping for non-negligible herd immunity from infection of a small proportion of the population was scientifically illiterate.
Herd immunity a year or two from now, due to the development of a vaccine, is a realistic and desirable goal, but that is not what the government sources were talking about.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1240977472507830272?s=20
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1240982564254486529?s=20
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1240984131254849542?s=20
The government was today actively discussing a new clampdown on London with pubs, cinemas and gyms possibly being ordered to close to stop the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.
An announcement could be made within hours, after crisis planners became increasingly concerned that too many people were continuing to ignore social distancing advice, making the spread of the virus more likely.
The British capital is the target of tougher measures because it has the highest rate of infection and deaths so far. Debate within government is continuing about whether non-essential shops - that is those not selling food or medical supplies - would be included in the ban.
The government had been considering a formal ban on Thursday and was braced to announce it - but pulled back. Among senior government figures there is a deep reluctance to issue banning orders.
Officials believe they would have the power to order bans even without special emergency laws to address the pandemic.
Crisis planners and government advisers have been looking at a range of data, such as transport usage in the capital and hospital admissions, to assess if the pleas made on Monday for people to stay home were being heeded.
Continuing anecdotal evidence of people, especially younger Londoners, continuing to go to pubs despite repeated pleas has led to the government believing it may have no choice but to issue the ban....
Responsible vs Stupid.
A divide for the ages.
Most sensible people, of whatever strip, will be perfectly happy with the transition being extended.
To be fair, I think we should ask for a twelve month 'pause', so transition ends December 2021, with the option to extend to December 2023 if needed.
I suspect the EU would bite our hands off.