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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » California moves into lockdown whilst in the UK TV ratings soar and a London paper suspends its printed edition and goes online only
The Governor of California Orders All in the US's largest state to Stay Home https://t.co/FNXbvAfWKP via @politicalwire
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Anyway, this was sent to me by in response to my recent article. 58 with a successful business established for 25 years advising companies in the food sector, with offices here and in Europe.
“My business earns 95% of its revenue from outside the UK, and because
the panic and demand suppression is the same everywhere, our business
has dropped off a cliff. Our customers in Paris, under lockdown, have
disappeared. A big American customer cut their service in half
overnight. Every customer project has been put on hold 'for the duration'.
In early April I will have to inject my own money into the business to
keep paying the staff wages (I already cut my own salary to zero).
If it goes on into June then it's two people made redundant (both with
mortgages to pay) and a 20% pay-cut for the survivors.
Continue to August and its curtains for us.
I re-mortgaged my house in the last financial crisis, as many business
owners did, and used the money to keep staff on and pay their wages.
My business and life are debt-free and at my age I don't want to be
taking on a load of bank debt with - as you correctly point out - no
idea how/whether I will be able to repay it. The chancellor's bank
guarantee is useless to me and most small businesses.
Mr Johnson's Titanic is steaming towards a huge iceberg. It's all calm
on the surface, but there's an economic disaster unfolding under the
surface which could sink him. Just today I have learned of four separate
people I know whose businesses are folding in a month or two. That will
be about 100 people losing their jobs.
Your grants suggestion is an excellent one. The PAYE system means that
grants to cover staff salaries can easily be policed.
Quite where the chancellor thinks his VAT, PAYE and corporation tax
revenue (which pays for the NHS) is going to come from if the economy
craters I don't know.
I also happen to be one of the immuno-suppressed 'vulnerable' people
that government policy is aiming to protect. I'd rather everyone went to
work and we 'vulnerable' were locked up in Center Parcs than that we
crater the economy and the lives of tens of millions.”
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1240839432284131328
https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1240806440379371521?s=21
I can't sleep. My company just told me yesterday that any time I have to take off for essential childcare (we now have no choice) will be classed as unpaid leave. So my income is going to drop by 50%. Meanwhile, our nursery are insisting we pay full fees as normal so they can stay solvent and continue to pay their staff.
We are trapped in a pincer movement with no way out.
I have had conversations with owners of several similar small businesses this week who are in scarily similar circumstances.
Should this carry on for very long, the potential for financial armageddon is very real indeed.
What percentage of the UK workforce is employed by small business ?
Never thought I’d approve a complimentary tweet about Tucker Carlson...
https://twitter.com/primalpoly/status/1240066167256973312
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51969192#
Self-employed people say they are deeply worried about how they will survive with no income due to the impact of the coronavirus, after discovering the financial measures announced by the UK government on Tuesday do not apply to them.
"It made me feel as if I wasn't of any importance," says Cathy Wassell, a freelance digital marketing agency owner based in Stratford-Upon-Avon who has run three businesses from home over the last 17 years.
"I watched the chancellor's speech but it was glaringly obvious that there was no help for self-employed people in those packages at all."
According to the Office for National Statistics, there are five million self-employed people in the UK, who make up 15% of the labour market.
Many self-employed workers have told the BBC their income has dropped to zero, and they do not know how they will be able to pay their bills....
Experts warn companies that have gorged on cheap money for the past decade face going out of business
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-crisis-could-lead-to-new-credit-crunch-as-companies-struggle-with-debt
Here's the problem. What am I not spending my money on?
South Western Railway *
Sky Sports
Arsenal tickets
Fuel for my car to go to Arsenal away games
Airline tickets for an away game in Europe
Hotel in European cities where Arsenal are playing
* I haven't claimed a refund as my annual season ticket expires in May, so it's pointless because you effectively get the last six weeks free - and I'm hoping we might get a refund anyway.
Occasionally I go for a meal with friends, but we've either got big mortgages or are saving to get a big mortgage.
So all the talk about smaller businesses is fine, but my changing behaviour could cripple some big firms that the public would actually oppose being bailed out.
What is for certain is that the economy cannot sustain eighteen months of this.
The Chinese have said the lockdown in Wuhan remains in place until they’ve had fourteen consecutive days without new cases.
If it flares up again, this isn’t something they can hide. Either way, we’ll find out eventually whether they have it under control or not.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/19/uk-drive-develop-coronavirus-vaccine-science
I hope government is committed now to fund/subsidise bulk manufacturing production. It will cost tens of millions, but that is nothing in the big scheme of things.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-quietly-reopens-as-much-of-world-locks-down
Unfortunately it will take quite a while to see whether they’ve been successful, which we could do with knowing one way or the other now.
However, here's a cautionary reminder of what can go wrong in drug trials even when the boffins are convinced they've found the winning formula:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22556736
"This is how the government runs things...
Announce that all schools are closing but announce that some children - no-one knows who - will be still going to some school or another, in two days time.
Omit to tell anyone WHO that applies to then leave the announcement until the following day. Promise the information on that day.
Break their promise almost immediately - just about the only thing they've done in a timely fashion - and release it early in the morning on the day the school is closing!
We are now having a remote SLT meeting that started at 5:30 in the morning."
This after weeks of saying that schools wouldn't need to be closed for various bizarre reasons (children might not be major vectors; we need to develop herd-immunity). It's clear that, during those weeks, the government did not plan what any eventual closure would look like.
Unfortunately, with our partisan politics, generic Tory-bashing doesn't get distinguished from misdeeds which should make everyone furious.
We desperately need competence at the top.
My industry and our business are counted as essential (good). I however am working from home for the duration so I don't think my job is. My wife is a student teachimgassistamt weeks away from graduation. Her school have ask3d her to report as normal on Monday. So we could send our kids to school. Is the schooling being provided normal school or glorified childcare?
Havi g been supportive initially of the government it now seems clear that they are a bunch of bumbling amateurs making this up as they go along.
When all is said and done this disease would have gone unnoticed for much of human history, rightly or wrongly.
To take a crudely rationalist perspective, the harmful effects of a die off of >1% of the population, are far less than widespread social, political and economic collapse which could well now occur.
On the other hand, the situation perhaps reveals that our social, political and economic model is totally screwed and fails the most basic stress testing.
This is something that we all perhaps suspected, but lived in denial of. Unless the crisis is sufficiently serious, it won't be something that we confront.
It baffles me that I still hear people saying Johnson is doing well. He's goddamawful.
Whunter this would certainly have 'been noticed' throughout history. Your 1% figure is based on something floating around in December. Despite massive lockdowns, Italy has a current mortality rate of 8.3%. The UK is 4.4%.
We're anticipating a surge in the UK over the next two to three weeks, especially as a result of the laissez-faire DIY homestay policy of Johnson's Gov't.
"Coronavirus: Urgent appeal for Brits to work on farms
Industry leaders have issued an urgent plea for British people to work on farms and help feed the nation amid a burgeoning labour shortage due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Some 70,000 seasonal workers are usually required annually on British farms – with many coming from overseas. But travel restrictions and tighter border controls are having a significant effect on the number of people able to travel to the UK...."
Further, helicopter money would allow many larger companies - and indeed smaller ones - to reduce their costs by temporarily laying off staff, without having to put them on (or below) the breadline.
The supertax would simply take the money that those earning simply aren’t spending. The usual arguments about incentives and taxation don’t apply since no-one is taking business risks right now and we all have an incentive to keep our businesses large and small above water.
Almost finished Alison Weir's Lancaster and York. Hadn't read much at all about the Wars of the Roses beforehand, and I'm finding it rather enjoyable.
Is that the only nursery locally?
On a more positive note, Mrs C had an excellent meal last, delivered from the pub where we would normally have gone, and the wine, since it was rom my stock, was at off-licence price, not pub!
Delivery service is new.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1240806440379371521?s=20
They have forgotten to say what age groups it applies to.
Are 18 year olds whose parents are key workers included or not? Common sense would say not. Common sense, Cummings and Johnson have never been friends.
Are 16 year olds? Again, common sense, but...
If that’s not clarified within two hours, we have carnage on our hands.
‘Mr Weir said the system that would be used to award grades would be "a combination of prior achievements, internal assessments, predicted grades, analysis and modelling of existing data trends to provide the necessary assurance about the robustness, accuracy and fairness of the grades awarded".’
We really are dealing with a bunch of idiots. If he tried to use ALL of those, it will tell him precisely nothing, because so much of the data would cancel itself out. It will lead to a confused, contradictory mess that will help nobody at all. It will also be a a nightmare to administer, far more difficult than processing 20% special considerations.
So, it is not just Johnson.
My daughter's school will be "supervising" the children of any key workers who require such a service whilst they do the work their classmates are expected to do at home. It's a secondary school, so I would imagine only the parents of younger children would be likely to take up this offer.
In theory, the pupils are going to be given five hours of online schoolwork to do per day. Even the PE department are supposedly going to be setting work. We'll see how it goes.
It will create mass unemployment not seen in the UK since at least the early 80s and probably a fair bit beyond that. We are promised whatever it takes. Make it so.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1240752660120309762?s=20
I've told them I'll pay them full whack for as long as I'm receiving a full salary, but that this might not be sustainable.
If my income falls I'll reduce payments to them proportionately as well.
I've made clear the situation and it's implications. I can probably bill at 60% to the client rather than 100% (based on value add) but the support I expected from my employer isn't forthcoming.
You can only do your best under these difficult circumstances. Employers who expect nothing to change and for productivity to carry on unaffected are unrealistic. Childcare is no argument to dock your pay. You should safely ignore it.
That was, of course, at the time a very novel drug, mucking around with the immune system in a then untried manner - whereas the particular vaccine approach being attempted here is tried and tested.
That said, there are still major uncertainties. The principal one is whether the vaccine is effective or not. There is also the possible danger of ADE, though that is considerably less likely (this strain of the coronavirus seems to do some odd things to the immune system, so it's not impossible).
Any reason not to adopt it ?
Businesses should be offered grants based on last declared turnover and contingent on no dismissals within the next twelve months.
Many of us will be in different but comparable boats. My business can (probably) weather a couple of months or so, but beyond that it all looks rather uncertain...
If Arsenal try that tactic with me when it comes to renewing my season ticket in May, I'll tell them where to go!
or are they just taking the piss?
I'm here all week...hopefully...
So, as close to normal as we can manage. What we don't yet know is how many students we will have in school. God knows how Primary schools will cope.
I'm not a key worker but my wife is.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-maintaining-educational-provision/guidance-for-schools-colleges-and-local-authorities-on-maintaining-educational-provision
I want to still have a club after the all clear. Our owners are rich, but make their money via a SE Asia duty free empire.
I am very unusually posting from school using data. This situation is chaotic. Clearly there has been no planning and no thought given to what to do. They are sound bites that have not been analysed. It is going to get worse. 50/50 Williamson and indeed his Scottish, Welsh and NIrish counterparts are forced to resign within the week.
Edit - I don’t mean my school has not planned. We have several, for different scenarios. But because the government is so incoherent right now we don’t know which one to use.
I am not sure you are understanding. Everyone would get the helicopter money right away, to keep things simple. Whereas the extra tax would fall progressively on those maintaining most income. If you are net worse off in that scenario then you are relatively in a pretty good position.
Not exactly clear is it
Everyone else:
1. If it is at all possible for children to be at home, then they should be.
2. If a child needs specialist support, is vulnerable or has a parent who is a critical worker, then educational provision will be available for them.
3. Parents should not rely for childcare upon those who are advised to be in the stringent social distancing category such as grandparents, friends, or family members with underlying conditions.
3. Parents should also do everything they can to ensure children are not mixing socially in a way which can continue to spread the virus. They should observe the same social distancing principles as adults.
4. Residential special schools, boarding schools and special settings continue to care for children wherever possible.
5. If your work is critical to the COVID-19 response, or you work in one of the critical sectors listed below, and you cannot keep your child safe at home then your children will be prioritised for education provision:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-maintaining-educational-provision/guidance-for-schools-colleges-and-local-authorities-on-maintaining-educational-provision
emphasis added
Lots of problems to overcome with that idea, I'm sure, but again, it's something that the government could have been planning well over a month ago.
Do as I say, not as I do.
Meanwhile our Abel & Cole delivery has already arrived. Enough fresh food to last us a week.
Will be trying to limit exposure to the net, using it to get back in touch with some people, and learning to garden now that the weather turned.
The time was planned to rebuild a social life, which is now up in smoke. Dancing shut till autumn. U3A suspended. Volunteering opportunities vanished.
But shops within walking distance when needed, and friends offering to help.
Did it for 7-8 week Dec-Feb with just 4 or 5 trips out. Can do it again.
I do though want to say something that may be slightly controversial. In short, we need to remember that governments are, ultimately, just made up of people like us all. Politicians, yes, civil servants also, all making decisions at pace under extraordinary stress. This will mean contradictory advice and false starts at times, a lack of necessary detail; and that sadly can cause real harm.
We can question whether sufficient preparations were in place - although there are, I think, limits to how much you can prepare at a very granular level of detail for every possible future scenario. We should also critique when they get things wrong; that keeps our government responsive. We should also flag up when ideology and poor values are clouding decision-making.
But, I think also need to remember how rapidly the situation is developing; the absolutely huge number of decisions that need making and at pace; and remember that our political leaders are just one, very small part, of a wider governance system.
In short, our leaders are not and should not be beyond criticism; but they are ultimately humans, flaws and all.