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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s front pages are yet again dominated by the coronavirus crisis
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When the French Tennis Federation (FFT) on Tuesday unilaterally tried to shift the second major of the season from May to September, supposedly to escape the threat of coronavirus but also clearly to secure the viability of their event later in the year, they were ready for a roasting by the ATP and the WTA, and this was it.
“Now is not a time to act unilaterally, but in unison,” the ATP and the WTA said in a joint statement on Wednesday evening.
Rafa is one slam behind The Fed. Will he get his chance to equal his record of 20 slams?
If it’s going to happen, you’d do it on a Sunday. There will surely be chaos to begin with as the news won’t reach everyone at the same time.
Australia and NZ to close borders for six months.
And CHAAYNA, of course.
Stay put.
https://twitter.com/MichaelRosenYes/status/1240501586163630081?s=20
Yeah, that must be it....
It also maybe means no point in ending lock downs until testing capacity is able to meet demand.
1. The world is complex and interconnected.
2. There are no easy solutions.
3. Experts are absolutely essential.
4. The market does not have all the answers.
5. The state is a force for good.
6. Populism is a fake prospectus.
7. Solidarity wins.
Discuss.
Or maybe, didn't.
Amusing incident in my return to work interview. The Deputy Head got a bit tongue twisted and asked how many days’ absence I had had in the last twelve years (she meant ‘twelve months’). I answered, ‘none,’ quite truthfully, and then added, ‘but if that’s the length of time sick leave is carried for, we need to talk!’
The Chinese state sought to cover up the virus at outbreak, and its charming measures have included welding people into their homes. If that state had instead cracked down on trading rare animals and wet markets, this pandemic may very well never have happened.
North Korea the statiest of statists claims it has zero CV19, should we all imitate their system ?
We are where we are because the State felt threatened by experts.
https://twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1240421354530385926?s=20
The state argument is simply another way of saying do we put all our eggs in one basket. Risk mitigation would tell you no.
No one is claiming that the state is the sole force for good; but without it, you are effectively back to being hunter gatherers.
1) Nation states are the crucial power holders, supported by multilateral organisations.
2) The vast majority of people are terrible at understanding risk including key decision makers.
3) Traditional stories passed down through the ages are indeed universal truths. Bad news is not listened to.
4) It takes societies about two months to gear itself up to do anything.
5) There is a thin veneer of civilisation.
6) Globalisation has a fundamental systemic risk built into it which is not factored in by its proponents.
7) Experts need to constantly reassess their baseline assumptions.
Some of the weird shit has to go.
9. China were just unlucky to cause this - let’s have a telethon for them.
"Let's design a virus that only kills the elderly and vulnerable and destroys the world economy! That will teach our enemies! Mwhahaha!"
It's not because I predicted this kind of bullshit would happen, it's just 30-40% cheaper to shop in this manner.
:-D
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-covid19-spain-murcia-police-dinosaur-outfit-viral-video-twitter-1492654
https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1240314674358505473
Must try and find something to be positive about.
8. The vast majority of the benefits of travel accrue to the individual, while the vast majority of risks are borne by the group.
There is likely to be a backlash against this.
2. Yes. Which goes against some of your other subsequent black & white points.
3. In their field of professional expertise, yes, but they can be subject to mistakes and incorrect assumptions just like the rest of us. Politicians decide.
4. The market works well. We have a mixed economy. Arguing against anarcho capitalism is a straw man.
5. Nation states are what matters when the chips are down. We're finding out there's no such thing as a citizen of the world.
6. Non sequitur. Although I note some of globalisation's greatest and richest proponents (Branson) are the first to put out the begging bowl.
7. National solidarity and neighborliness is what this crisis is bringing out. See Italians singing their anthem and waving flags out of windows. And others are a bit selfish. It's a bit like WW2 in civilian spirit.
Natufian villages cannot possibly be compared to modern day states.
Mr. Meeks, yeah, I thought it might disrupt things earlier than others (cf the tip on Hamilton getting under 21 points finishes this year) but dramatically underestimated the impact.
Edited extra bit: for those interested about the Natufi:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natufian_culture
That would be a staggering drop in economic activity, inflicting real pain on millions of people.
For comparison, the UK shrank by 6% during and after the 2008 financial crisis -- and that was spread across more than a year.
In a new research note, chief economist Paul Dales says:
By asking the public to work from home where possible and to avoid pubs, theatres and other social venues, the UK government has implemented measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus that will significantly reduce economic activity. Lots of business activity will continue in some form, but lots won’t. Hiring and investment decisions will be put on ice or cancelled. Households won’t spend much on non-essential items.
With the peak of the virus yet to come, it is clear we are in the early days of a big recession. As such, our previous forecast that GDP would fall by 2.5% q/q in Q2 is no longer fit for purpose.
With large parts of the economy at a standstill - GDP could fall by between 10% and 20%, they believe (thus a 15% ‘split the difference’ estimate)
Faced with such an economic calamity, Capital Economics predict the government will need to act as a backstop for banks and other sectors to prevent a deeper and longer-lasting recession.
A rapid V-shaped recovery no longer looks likely, given the job losses and company failures we’re already seeing. So it could take until the end of 2021 for the economy to reach its current size again, Dales fears.
https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1240314675197345794?s=19
This will double down on things like Brexit and Corbynism.
When the Olympics is eventually held all chinese athletes should be booed.
London's success has come in part from being a global city and a safe haven in a globalised world. But that came about in a world that assumed you could travel at will (if you had the financial means). Now that world has gone, the money is flowing out of London.
The idea Chinese scientists just "muck around" in labs to see what viral weapons they can come up with is a lot of nonsense.
This has jumped over to humans from bats who are great incubators of viruses -and maybe pandolins - as has been well documented.
They might even coordinate at the WTO.
You're the only person on this site (the only one) still totally obsessed by it.
That makes you a real fanatic and weirdo.