One of the best things to do is not follow the development of the pandemic live on the Internet. If you do you will follow every rumour, diversion and scary, salacious tit bit. You will drive yourself crazy. In circumstances like this it is better to watch the news at ten (or some online equivalent) to update yourself with The things that remain important and true at the end of the day. You lose nothing by doing other things for a few hours. This is a marathon not a sprint.
12/12 is the most perfect example of the correlation/causation fallacy I have ever seen. 1/12 is the most perfect example of the fallacy of the appeal to authority. The stuff between is merely too obvious to be worth saying.
"More than 200 scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.
[many paragraphs later]
The group, specialising in a range of disciplines, ranging from mathematics to genetics, though no leading experts in the science of the spread of diseases, said the current measures are "insufficient" and "additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately", as is happening in other countries."
When the BBC gives prominence to the views of virologists on the Mandelbrot Set, one might expect a few legitimate criticisms to be made of that.
The Government is generally doing the best it can, though the boycott of the BBC should stop immediately, if only for this issue (although the organisation is hardly doing itself favours by the 'u-turn' nonsense, as if anything that isn't being done today, even if specifically mentioned as a measure for the near future, is a u-turn if it ever happens).
Even lower down: In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height. "While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about 'behavioural fatigue' or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances," the letter said.
And yes, it’s a poor article, as it completely buried the lede: But a Department of Health and Social care spokesperson said that Sir Patrick's comments had been misinterpreted. "Herd immunity is not part of our action plan...
But if you’re suggesting the BBC ought not to be reporting this, then folderol, MD.
As I keep saying, we are not talking about the Greatest Generation now.
I have no idea why the behavioural insight team don't think society will be able to follow a Chinese style approach...
Perhaps, just perhaps, the experts know what they are doing?
However more likely they don't, past history tells us that supposed experts are more often wrong than right. Also when being paid and arm twisted by governments they regularly say exactly what they are told to say, both them and governments have lied to the public regularly for hundreds of years. Anyone who thinks these barstewards will be telling us the truth is a fool, history tells us otherwise.
"More than 200 scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.
[many paragraphs later]
The group, specialising in a range of disciplines, ranging from mathematics to genetics, though no leading experts in the science of the spread of diseases, said the current measures are "insufficient" and "additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately", as is happening in other countries."
When the BBC gives prominence to the views of virologists on the Mandelbrot Set, one might expect a few legitimate criticisms to be made of that.
The Government is generally doing the best it can, though the boycott of the BBC should stop immediately, if only for this issue (although the organisation is hardly doing itself favours by the 'u-turn' nonsense, as if anything that isn't being done today, even if specifically mentioned as a measure for the near future, is a u-turn if it ever happens).
One of the best things to do is not follow the development of the pandemic live on the Internet. If you do you will follow every rumour, diversion and scary, salacious tit bit. You will drive yourself crazy. In circumstances like this it is better to watch the news at ten (or some online equivalent) to update yourself with The things that remain important and true at the end of the day. You lose nothing by doing other things for a few hours. This is a marathon not a sprint.
One longs for the days of the Falklands war when 5 minutes a day of Ian Macdonald was all the information there was.
Paradoxically if the number of cases is much higher than stated it means the death rate is much lower than thought, assuming the number of fatalities is correct.
We know with this disease is at the moment what can hugely affect the rate is if your system gets overloaded and crashes. South Korea and Japan haven't (as of yet) and thus have much lower death rates.
Exactly.......the death rates are comparable to the treatments we have available for keeping people alive.....if we have interventions and available beds that can keep co-morbid over 80's alive- as Germany now-the death rate is low...
But once hospital systems become overwhelmed and start rationing therapies- the scores on the doors will begin to level out.....and then bottom out....
The scores on the doors may well look much of a muchness at the end of the day across countries...all we are seeing now is the preamble which probably shows that Germany is quite good.....
Given they have far more facilities they are likely to come out of it much better, hard to see how it could be otherwise.
So the public are now in full on panic mode. Good. The same morons who said it was just flu or a cold now realise the terrible fate awaiting us.
Hopefully now they might start doing the most basic of remedial actions rather than just sitting on social media howling at the moon.
Start washing your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering you utter cretins.
Three weeks ago. YouGov reports the British public are least concerned about Coronavirus and have done least to change their behaviour.
The public is not in full on panic mode. It only takes a few idiots to strip supermarket shelves of toilet roll. Most people will listen to advice and engage with it.
Actually, it also only takes a few responsible shoppers who have worked out that if you may have to self-isolate for two weeks it is in everybody's interest that you have an extra 12 rolls of toilet roll. Idiot panic buying could be anything from an out of control epidemic to a complete fiction, and nobody has the data to determine the question.
That’s nearly a roll a day: is that really what people usually use?
Depends how much phlegm you are producing if you have the virus?
Assessment of the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 cases suggests that, similar to SARS-CoV, patients will not be infectious until the onset of symptoms. In most cases, individuals are usually considered infectious while they have symptoms; how infectious individuals are, depends on the severity of their symptoms and stage of their illness. The median time from symptom onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks and is 3-6 weeks for severe or critical cases.3 There have been case reports that suggest infectivity during the asymptomatic period, with one patient found to be shedding virus before the onset of symptoms.4 Further study is required to determine the actual occurrence and impact of asymptomatic transmission.
It’s saying that in theory it shouldnt be highly transmissable before symptoms but In practice it appears that it is. Which we already know.
Is it? They're saying they've identified ONE possible case of presymptomatic transmission (this is WHO/China report). Now there may be debate about what "symptomatic" means of course.
The NHS guidance is currently following the assumption that it isn't (based on the evidence). Which is worrying if the evidence is wrong.
First! As human rights should be. The UK needs to stay within the ECHR or risk looking like a banana republic.
It already is a banana republic
Until there’s a run on bananas
Bananas improve ones pottasium- sodium balance lowering blood pressure. As hypertension is a comorbidity factor with COVID19, I'd have thought they should be recommended..
Mr. B, it's legitimate to report it, but leaving critical information until way down, and therefore giving a misleading picture, is not good reporting at all.
We had a debate the other day where Rottenborough said that people wouldn't put up with quarantine for more than a couple of weeks, and I said nonchalantly that lots of us could stay at home for months with electronic media, no problem.
The Peaton rumour, if true, will test my theory, as I turned 70 last month, so apparenly I'll be in strict quarantine for 4 months (wow, I can post all day on PB!). I'm up for it - it's a blunt instrument as I'm really in better health than many younger people, but I appreciate the Government can't mess about with individual assessment. I assume some food arrangements will be made - I've got two weeks' supply of dried/frozen food, but haven't want to panic-buy more.
In general the measures that Peston leaks are more in line with other countries, so I'm happy to welcome them in principle. I'm puzzled by the Government's strategy, as some of the restrictions seem different from the "oh well, let's accept it and develop herd immunity gradually" idea. But with luck we'll get more clarity soon. If the idea is that most people develop immunity while oldies at higher risk are safely tucked away, I guess that's defensible.
First! As human rights should be. The UK needs to stay within the ECHR or risk looking like a banana republic.
It already is a banana republic
Until there’s a run on bananas
Bananas improve ones pottasium- sodium balance lowering blood pressure. As hypertension is a comorbidity factor with COVID19, I'd have thought they should be recommended..
I thought I was a cynic, who had seen it all in politics.
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
The number in the media and partisans who think the normal rules of the game apply i.e. get a group letter signed and up-sell it as "scientists and experts" (of which basically none are experts in the field).
This isn't normal times, this is war.
The grown-ups like Dougie Alexander realise this, while Mason plays silly buggers.
Indeed.
I had forgotten about wee Dougie. But Labour need him and his ilk back pronto.
Th elast thing they need back is that lying slimeball
12/12 is the most perfect example of the correlation/causation fallacy I have ever seen. 1/12 is the most perfect example of the fallacy of the appeal to authority. The stuff between is merely too obvious to be worth saying.
Can’t win with some people. Either you’re completely unqualified to have an opinion, or you’re spuriously appealing to authority....
So the public are now in full on panic mode. Good. The same morons who said it was just flu or a cold now realise the terrible fate awaiting us.
Hopefully now they might start doing the most basic of remedial actions rather than just sitting on social media howling at the moon.
Start washing your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering you utter cretins.
Three weeks ago. YouGov reports the British public are least concerned about Coronavirus and have done least to change their behaviour.
The public is not in full on panic mode. It only takes a few idiots to strip supermarket shelves of toilet roll. Most people will listen to advice and engage with it.
Actually, it also only takes a few responsible shoppers who have worked out that if you may have to self-isolate for two weeks it is in everybody's interest that you have an extra 12 rolls of toilet roll. Idiot panic buying could be anything from an out of control epidemic to a complete fiction, and nobody has the data to determine the question.
That’s nearly a roll a day: is that really what people usually use?
Action to isolate over-70s to shield them from coronavirus is planned in coming weeks, UK health secretary confirms https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873
We had a debate the other day where Rottenborough said that people wouldn't put up with quarantine for more than a couple of weeks, and I said nonchalantly that lots of us could stay at home for months with electronic media, no problem.
The Peaton rumour, if true, will test my theory, as I turned 70 last month, so apparenly I'll be in strict quarantine for 4 months (wow, I can post all day on PB!). I'm up for it - it's a blunt instrument as I'm really in better health than many younger people, but I appreciate the Government can't mess about with individual assessment. I assume some food arrangements will be made - I've got two weeks' supply of dried/frozen food, but haven't want to panic-buy more.
In general the measures that Peston leaks are more in line with other countries, so I'm happy to welcome them in principle. I'm puzzled by the Government's strategy, as some of the restrictions seem different from the "oh well, let's accept it and develop herd immunity gradually" idea. But with luck we'll get more clarity soon. If the idea is that most people develop immunity while oldies at higher risk are safely tucked away, I guess that's defensible.
I severely doubt many old people will take advice and quarantine. They will just pop to the shops or go out for a drive. Shutting garden centres will help.
12/12 is the most perfect example of the correlation/causation fallacy I have ever seen. 1/12 is the most perfect example of the fallacy of the appeal to authority. The stuff between is merely too obvious to be worth saying.
Can’t win with some people. Either you’re completely unqualified to have an opinion, or you’re spuriously appealing to authority....
If you are capable of tweet 12/12, both apply to you.
Mr. Palmer, that may not be a problem for you (or me, or people with similar mindsets) but lots of people are much more social and will find it a lot more difficult.
Normally it's extroverts pestering introverts to be more outgoing. Bit weird for roles to be reversed.
So the public are now in full on panic mode. Good. The same morons who said it was just flu or a cold now realise the terrible fate awaiting us.
Hopefully now they might start doing the most basic of remedial actions rather than just sitting on social media howling at the moon.
Start washing your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering you utter cretins.
Three weeks ago. YouGov reports the British public are least concerned about Coronavirus and have done least to change their behaviour.
The public is not in full on panic mode. It only takes a few idiots to strip supermarket shelves of toilet roll. Most people will listen to advice and engage with it.
Actually, it also only takes a few responsible shoppers who have worked out that if you may have to self-isolate for two weeks it is in everybody's interest that you have an extra 12 rolls of toilet roll. Idiot panic buying could be anything from an out of control epidemic to a complete fiction, and nobody has the data to determine the question.
That’s nearly a roll a day: is that really what people usually use?
It comes in quanta. Did Max Planck live in vain?
For loo paper the quanta is the sheet, not the roll!
12/12 is the most perfect example of the correlation/causation fallacy I have ever seen. 1/12 is the most perfect example of the fallacy of the appeal to authority. The stuff between is merely too obvious to be worth saying.
Can’t win with some people. Either you’re completely unqualified to have an opinion, or you’re spuriously appealing to authority....
If you are capable of tweet 12/12, both apply to you.
So the public are now in full on panic mode. Good. The same morons who said it was just flu or a cold now realise the terrible fate awaiting us.
Hopefully now they might start doing the most basic of remedial actions rather than just sitting on social media howling at the moon.
Start washing your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering you utter cretins.
Three weeks ago. YouGov reports the British public are least concerned about Coronavirus and have done least to change their behaviour.
The public is not in full on panic mode. It only takes a few idiots to strip supermarket shelves of toilet roll. Most people will listen to advice and engage with it.
Actually, it also only takes a few responsible shoppers who have worked out that if you may have to self-isolate for two weeks it is in everybody's interest that you have an extra 12 rolls of toilet roll. Idiot panic buying could be anything from an out of control epidemic to a complete fiction, and nobody has the data to determine the question.
That’s nearly a roll a day: is that really what people usually use?
It comes in quanta. Did Max Planck live in vain?
For loo paper the quanta is the sheet, not the roll!
It has the properties both of a sheet and of a roll, and it definitely observes Bell's inequality.
Mr. B, it's legitimate to report it, but leaving critical information until way down, and therefore giving a misleading picture, is not good reporting at all.
The BBC seem to be actively courting controversy- look at this one sided line up of Lord Haw Haws..
I thought I was a cynic, who had seen it all in politics.
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
The number in the media and partisans who think the normal rules of the game apply i.e. get a group letter signed and up-sell it as "scientists and experts" (of which basically none are experts in the field).
This isn't normal times, this is war.
The grown-ups like Dougie Alexander realise this, while Mason plays silly buggers.
This might be true if we didn't have a PM as divisive and loathsome as #boristhebutcher. He gets no quarter ever. When there are just two people left alive in the UK one will be burning him in effigy and the other will be carving a marble statue of him.
All French ski resorts have just been closed. Not a surprise.
A full refund will be given in the form of a credit against a holiday next year.
Surely they have to give you your money back (not a credit) if they can't fulfill their part of the contract?
Jesus wept Benpointer...we need to give companies a break.....
I had an air trip and car hire in Italy early April...I'm not claiming back....these are businesses that employ people who have mortgages....times have changed
Let's stop being so fucking selfish...hashtag
good luck hoping that , greedy grasping low life's everywhere will be trying to make out of it, big amount of people would stiff you rather than be decent. We will see the mettle of people in this and UK will be found wanting in many cases for sure, the me me me attitude in UK is pretty dire.
Blimey, I'm being accused of being a 'greedy grasping lowlife' for wanting a refund (for our booked and fully paid for transantic QM2 crossing) rather than a 'future cruise credit'.
Anyone know when, if I took the credit, I might be able to use it? Will the parent company Carnival still be solvent? How much is travel insurance to the US going to be next year?
One of the best things to do is not follow the development of the pandemic live on the Internet. If you do you will follow every rumour, diversion and scary, salacious tit bit. You will drive yourself crazy. In circumstances like this it is better to watch the news at ten (or some online equivalent) to update yourself with The things that remain important and true at the end of the day. You lose nothing by doing other things for a few hours. This is a marathon not a sprint.
One longs for the days of the Falklands war when 5 minutes a day of Ian Macdonald was all the information there was.
You mean the BBC weren’t leading with 200 Argentinians and Corbynites having written a letter to the Guardian?
Off the record, and therefore deniable, briefings relating to COVID-19 to selected journalists are a very bad look. Journalists with any integrity would refuse to report them. There is a duty right now to avoid any ambiguities. Confusion can quite literally be a killer. It’s time for all to be grown-up.
The journalists are a joke nowadays and would not know how to do things properly in any event.
Mr. B, it's legitimate to report it, but leaving critical information until way down, and therefore giving a misleading picture, is not good reporting at all.
The BBC seem to be actively courting controversy- look at this one sided line up of Lord Haw Haws..
We had a debate the other day where Rottenborough said that people wouldn't put up with quarantine for more than a couple of weeks, and I said nonchalantly that lots of us could stay at home for months with electronic media, no problem.
The Peaton rumour, if true, will test my theory, as I turned 70 last month, so apparenly I'll be in strict quarantine for 4 months (wow, I can post all day on PB!). I'm up for it - it's a blunt instrument as I'm really in better health than many younger people, but I appreciate the Government can't mess about with individual assessment. I assume some food arrangements will be made - I've got two weeks' supply of dried/frozen food, but haven't want to panic-buy more.
In general the measures that Peston leaks are more in line with other countries, so I'm happy to welcome them in principle. I'm puzzled by the Government's strategy, as some of the restrictions seem different from the "oh well, let's accept it and develop herd immunity gradually" idea. But with luck we'll get more clarity soon. If the idea is that most people develop immunity while oldies at higher risk are safely tucked away, I guess that's defensible.
I severely doubt many old people will take advice and quarantine. They will just pop to the shops or go out for a drive. Shutting garden centres will help.
Mr. B, it's legitimate to report it, but leaving critical information until way down, and therefore giving a misleading picture, is not good reporting at all.
The BBC seem to be actively courting controversy- look at this one sided line up of Lord Haw Haws..
One of the best things to do is not follow the development of the pandemic live on the Internet. If you do you will follow every rumour, diversion and scary, salacious tit bit. You will drive yourself crazy. In circumstances like this it is better to watch the news at ten (or some online equivalent) to update yourself with The things that remain important and true at the end of the day. You lose nothing by doing other things for a few hours. This is a marathon not a sprint.
One longs for the days of the Falklands war when 5 minutes a day of Ian Macdonald was all the information there was.
You mean the BBC weren’t leading with 200 Argentinians and Corbynites having written a letter to the Guardian?
We did have Tam Dayell MP outraged when the the Belgrano went down but strangely quiet about the Sir Galahad.
I have no doubt which side Dura, Mystic etc would have been on -would have been pro steak and Tango posts from dawn to dusk.
History shows that Mrs T came out of that one 10 times as strong a PM.
In good news, it seems there'll probably be a new Witcher game once Cyberpunk 2077 is out (probably the Witcher game coming out circa 2024). CD Projekt Red are going to start work on a new single player RPG immediately post-Cyberpunk 2077.
One of the best things to do is not follow the development of the pandemic live on the Internet. If you do you will follow every rumour, diversion and scary, salacious tit bit. You will drive yourself crazy. In circumstances like this it is better to watch the news at ten (or some online equivalent) to update yourself with The things that remain important and true at the end of the day. You lose nothing by doing other things for a few hours. This is a marathon not a sprint.
One longs for the days of the Falklands war when 5 minutes a day of Ian Macdonald was all the information there was.
You mean the BBC weren’t leading with 200 Argentinians and Corbynites having written a letter to the Guardian?
They are not even analogously Argentinians, they are English undergraduates who spent three days in Peru in their gap year.
We had a debate the other day where Rottenborough said that people wouldn't put up with quarantine for more than a couple of weeks, and I said nonchalantly that lots of us could stay at home for months with electronic media, no problem.
The Peaton rumour, if true, will test my theory, as I turned 70 last month, so apparenly I'll be in strict quarantine for 4 months (wow, I can post all day on PB!). I'm up for it - it's a blunt instrument as I'm really in better health than many younger people, but I appreciate the Government can't mess about with individual assessment. I assume some food arrangements will be made - I've got two weeks' supply of dried/frozen food, but haven't want to panic-buy more.
In general the measures that Peston leaks are more in line with other countries, so I'm happy to welcome them in principle. I'm puzzled by the Government's strategy, as some of the restrictions seem different from the "oh well, let's accept it and develop herd immunity gradually" idea. But with luck we'll get more clarity soon. If the idea is that most people develop immunity while oldies at higher risk are safely tucked away, I guess that's defensible.
I severely doubt many old people will take advice and quarantine. They will just pop to the shops or go out for a drive. Shutting garden centres will help.
In good news, it seems there'll probably be a new Witcher game once Cyberpunk 2077 is out (probably the Witcher game coming out circa 2024). CD Projekt Red are going to start work on a new single player RPG immediately post-Cyberpunk 2077.
The first ten words made sense; beyond that it was all gobbledygook to me.
One of the best things to do is not follow the development of the pandemic live on the Internet. If you do you will follow every rumour, diversion and scary, salacious tit bit. You will drive yourself crazy. In circumstances like this it is better to watch the news at ten (or some online equivalent) to update yourself with The things that remain important and true at the end of the day. You lose nothing by doing other things for a few hours. This is a marathon not a sprint.
One longs for the days of the Falklands war when 5 minutes a day of Ian Macdonald was all the information there was.
You mean the BBC weren’t leading with 200 Argentinians and Corbynites having written a letter to the Guardian?
We did have Tam Dayell MP outraged when the the Belgrano went down but strangely quiet about the Sir Galahad.
I have no doubt which side Dura, Mystic etc would have been on -would have been pro steak and Tango posts from dawn to dusk.
History shows that Mrs T came out of that one 10 times as strong a PM.
@Dura_Ace was a fleet air arm pilot, so you are speaking bollocks. Few of us have his combat experience.
Though he is not alone amongst combat vets in questioning wars and looking for a better solution.
A lot of people think that the ECHR has been used to promote rights in an unbalanced and disproportionate way: so a serious criminal isn't deported because of a right to family life, but it's OK to make it a crime (in most circumstances) to look at the Electoral Register - the one that used until 2002 to hang up by a piece of string in the village hall.
Secondly, it will not be easy to take away from courts their power to require government and all arms of the state to obey their own laws. Lawyers are not daft.
We had a debate the other day where Rottenborough said that people wouldn't put up with quarantine for more than a couple of weeks, and I said nonchalantly that lots of us could stay at home for months with electronic media, no problem.
The Peaton rumour, if true, will test my theory, as I turned 70 last month, so apparenly I'll be in strict quarantine for 4 months (wow, I can post all day on PB!). I'm up for it - it's a blunt instrument as I'm really in better health than many younger people, but I appreciate the Government can't mess about with individual assessment. I assume some food arrangements will be made - I've got two weeks' supply of dried/frozen food, but haven't want to panic-buy more.
In general the measures that Peston leaks are more in line with other countries, so I'm happy to welcome them in principle. I'm puzzled by the Government's strategy, as some of the restrictions seem different from the "oh well, let's accept it and develop herd immunity gradually" idea. But with luck we'll get more clarity soon. If the idea is that most people develop immunity while oldies at higher risk are safely tucked away, I guess that's defensible.
What I don't get about this is, what happens to old people who depend on the support of young people? Anyone in a home, anyone who needs daycare, anyone who goes to a hospital? That must be a non-trivial proportion of old people...
With China and other countries gradually opening up, we should get a better idea of whether their efforts to contain are working or not there.
Maybe it would be wise for the government here to pursue a policy to limit the spread as much as possible just for the time being and wait to confirm that the alternative strategy isn't going to work.
I think this is something that we really should err on the side of caution with.
I understand that Mongolia is near China, but there's a certain oddness to the travel advice. The US is banning trips from the UK, while the foreign office in the UK is advising its citizens against travel to Equatorial Guinea, Albania and Mongolia.
"The department advises against all but essential travel to Mongolia due to the suspension of all flights until at least March 28, and recommended British nationals use charter flights scheduled for March 15 and 16."
Jeez, some people are totally losing their minds, both here and elsewhere.
I also get the impression that half of British Twitter in 1942 would have been supporting the Nazis, and the BBC would have made sure their view was represented on the news every night.
In 1942 more than half the establishment did support the nazis
I hope you all are starting to realise that Johnson isn't some master strategist. He's the buffoon we all saw before the election. It's his pure luck to have stood against cretin Corbyn.
Off the record, and therefore deniable, briefings relating to COVID-19 to selected journalists are a very bad look. Journalists with any integrity would refuse to report them. There is a duty right now to avoid any ambiguities. Confusion can quite literally be a killer. It’s time for all to be grown-up.
Yes, I think it's time for the government to have a much better approach to communicating everything with the public. One source of truth, whether that's the PM, Matt Hancock or some other spokesperson. All information should also be on an official website for the public to access easily rather than having to find out in some newspaper or via BBC news.
Exactly this. We need to trust the information being provided. For that to happen it needs to come from a named source. This is not a political game. New rules are required.
fact that these morons leak stuff via Peston and other useful idiots in their state propaganda unit really helps people think they know what they are doing rather than talking through their arses after throwing a dice.
Does the Home Guard still exist? It may be needed to ensure people don't buy too many essentials for themselves, denying them to others.
I saw in a paper the army will be called out - that might include the reserves too
The NHS is creating a sort of Home Guard.
Retirees are being systematically invited to return temporarily - I think to take on roles that release existing staff for more frontline positions wrt COVID-19.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Nowhere has enough critical care beds for this.
Please don't make it political
of course politics come in to it, given the UK has the least beds of any developed nation despite the politicians thinking they are a world superpower says it all. We have been led by ignorant donkeys.
I hope you all are starting to realise that Johnson isn't some master strategist. He's the buffoon we all saw before the election. It's his pure luck to have stood against cretin Corbyn.
I'm trying not to be hostile to the Government as it's obviously an extremely difficult situation. But I'll admit that I now simply don't understand the strategy. I hope there is one, and I think it would help if we all undersotod it and tried to work with it, even if we have doubts about it.
Jeez, some people are totally losing their minds, both here and elsewhere.
I also get the impression that half of British Twitter in 1942 would have been supporting the Nazis, and the BBC would have made sure their view was represented on the news every night.
In 1942 more than half the establishment did support the nazis
There were a number of things going on in World War II in the UK that even now have yet to be fully documented, for reasons primarily of official obfuscation. The Home Guard, rather than being a figure of fun as in the official version of Dad's Army , had a significant group who expected to become communist partisans in the event of an invasion, like Michael Foot, while the establishment ranks of Mi5 in had a significant number who expected to collaborate. A clash between security forces and partisans was actually as a result quite possible ; and that's even before the possible role of the queen mother and her possibly collaborationist letters to the government, which have been classified and locked up for another 100 years.
All French ski resorts have just been closed. Not a surprise.
A full refund will be given in the form of a credit against a holiday next year.
Surely they have to give you your money back (not a credit) if they can't fulfill their part of the contract?
Jesus wept Benpointer...we need to give companies a break.....
I had an air trip and car hire in Italy early April...I'm not claiming back....these are businesses that employ people who have mortgages....times have changed
Let's stop being so fucking selfish...hashtag
good luck hoping that , greedy grasping low life's everywhere will be trying to make out of it, big amount of people would stiff you rather than be decent. We will see the mettle of people in this and UK will be found wanting in many cases for sure, the me me me attitude in UK is pretty dire.
Blimey, I'm being accused of being a 'greedy grasping lowlife' for wanting a refund (for our booked and fully paid for transantic QM2 crossing) rather than a 'future cruise credit'.
Anyone know when, if I took the credit, I might be able to use it? Will the parent company Carnival still be solvent? How much is travel insurance to the US going to be next year?
Greedy grasping lowlife I may be too, but I took out an annual travel insurance policy with the AA underwritten by AXA to include disruption. It was still available on Wednesday last week.
Viking are offering 125% credit or a full refund for cancelled cruises. My view is take the cash or pray the Russian credit lines continue unhindered.
I can't afford to lose the value of a 12 grand holiday particularly as my self-employed earning potential is likely to fall through the floor over the coming weeks.
So the public are now in full on panic mode. Good. The same morons who said it was just flu or a cold now realise the terrible fate awaiting us.
Hopefully now they might start doing the most basic of remedial actions rather than just sitting on social media howling at the moon.
Start washing your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering you utter cretins.
Three weeks ago. YouGov reports the British public are least concerned about Coronavirus and have done least to change their behaviour.
The public is not in full on panic mode. It only takes a few idiots to strip supermarket shelves of toilet roll. Most people will listen to advice and engage with it.
Good I am glad. I want the public to be sober, calm, aware and alert. I want them to heed government advice and go beyond it in many situations.
I am being slightly facetious as for many weeks the public have been a mixture of ignorant and apathetic. That was troubling because the most effective measures are totally reliant on the public changing their behaviour.
You think we should believe the proven liars. Only thing you can be sure of is they will be making sure they and all their families , rich chums etc are well looked after. Listened to an old boy today who had little food, scared to go out and first delivery he can get is 30th March, will be fun when over 70's are locked in their houses.
So the public are now in full on panic mode. Good. The same morons who said it was just flu or a cold now realise the terrible fate awaiting us.
Hopefully now they might start doing the most basic of remedial actions rather than just sitting on social media howling at the moon.
Start washing your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering you utter cretins.
Three weeks ago. YouGov reports the British public are least concerned about Coronavirus and have done least to change their behaviour.
The public is not in full on panic mode. It only takes a few idiots to strip supermarket shelves of toilet roll. Most people will listen to advice and engage with it.
Actually, it also only takes a few responsible shoppers who have worked out that if you may have to self-isolate for two weeks it is in everybody's interest that you have an extra 12 rolls of toilet roll. Idiot panic buying could be anything from an out of control epidemic to a complete fiction, and nobody has the data to determine the question.
That’s nearly a roll a day: is that really what people usually use?
It comes in quanta. Did Max Planck live in vain?
For loo paper the quanta is the sheet, not the roll!
It has the properties both of a sheet and of a roll, and it definitely observes Bell's inequality.
And whether it’s there or not depends on whether you are looking for it.
Some good news - a spell of definite spring like weather, almost hot (for the South East at least) on Tuesday - Wednesday
Some anecdata from the Middle East.
Make of it what you will, but they’re trying very hard here and failing to discover cases of local infection, close associates of people infected abroad are all testing negative.
The temperature here is in the high 20s at the moment.
Are the 229 scientists equivalent to the 374 economists in terms of correctness.? Discuss..
Wasn't one of the 229 'scientists' a Professor of Modern History?
There was a discussion of this last night. Some random guy on Twitter was successfully able to deduce that the lengthy list of letter writers consisted of many mathematicians, physicists, astronomers, historians and sundry other personages, many of whom were students and almost all of whom had no background in medicine, let alone epidemiology.
Of course, there are some media outlets which would trumpet a panic-stricken tirade against the Government if it were penned by three blokes and a dog down the local boozer. The fact that Sophy Ridge picked it up and ran with it on Sky (I saw a few minutes of the Hancock interview before something more worthwhile started on another channel) reeks of laziness allied to a desire to sensationalise.
There must always be novelty, controversy, argument, and confected arguments will do at least as well if not better than rational debate. It's how news as an entertainment industry steals viewers, readers and listeners from rival providers.
The temptation at times like this in Britain is always to invoke the Wartime spirit. It's therefore worth remembering that, during that particular disaster, the Government didn't spend the entire time dissecting and explaining all the minutiae of its strategy to hyperventilating hacks, whilst a precisely totalised body count was broadcast every hour, on the hour, 24 hours a day on the wireless.
If anything resembling the present media environment had prevailed in 1939 then we'd never have got as far even as Dunkirk. The country would've had a collective nervous breakdown and surrendered by Christmas.
What concerns me a little bit is the talk that legislation is needed to put in place some of the more extreme measures. Has that happened elsewhere in the world? Or is democracy at times of crisis another example of British exceptionalism?
Japan has just passed a law giving the government a lot more power to deal with contagious diseases. These powers kick in when the PM declares an emergency, which he declined to do so far. They were a bit controversial but ultimately rather than forcing them through with its majority (which it could have done) it got the support of the main opposition party by building in various checks and balances that they asked for.
Thanks. My dad said that there is a danger that the government might bring in some laws that never go away once the crisis has passed. Something to watch out for.
Yes, any new laws passed should have a sunset clause which requires a two thirds majority to extend.
Fat chance the Tories will consider that, they will take full advantage.
So the public are now in full on panic mode. Good. The same morons who said it was just flu or a cold now realise the terrible fate awaiting us.
Hopefully now they might start doing the most basic of remedial actions rather than just sitting on social media howling at the moon.
Start washing your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering you utter cretins.
Three weeks ago. YouGov reports the British public are least concerned about Coronavirus and have done least to change their behaviour.
The public is not in full on panic mode. It only takes a few idiots to strip supermarket shelves of toilet roll. Most people will listen to advice and engage with it.
Actually, it also only takes a few responsible shoppers who have worked out that if you may have to self-isolate for two weeks it is in everybody's interest that you have an extra 12 rolls of toilet roll. Idiot panic buying could be anything from an out of control epidemic to a complete fiction, and nobody has the data to determine the question.
That’s nearly a roll a day: is that really what people usually use?
It comes in quanta. Did Max Planck live in vain?
For loo paper the quanta is the sheet, not the roll!
It has the properties both of a sheet and of a roll, and it definitely observes Bell's inequality.
Err... all experiments to date show that reality violates Bell's Inequality
Incidentally I think coronavirus is the thing that could bring down Sturgeon rather than whatever bizarre rumour of the week is circulating on the Yooniverse.
Scotland is fundamentally bound by the UK approach, there is no ability to differentiate from England and regardless of the merits of the strategy when body count starts rising people are going to naturally blame whoever is in charge and in Scotland that is Sturgeon.
On topic, the ECHR has produced some poor jurisprudence. Its decision on whole life prison sentences in particular stands out.
Poor decisions can emerge from any system of judicial oversight. The government’s real objection is that it is being overseen.
Can the electorate change the ECHR judges and decisions?
That inability of governments or electorates to change decisions is rather the point of a court of human rights. The idea is that human rights are fundamental and inalienable.
The government’s hostility would have more credibility if it had not shown itself to be consistently hostile to any form of rule of law controlling it. It wants to be able to act without any check at all.
Would it not be better to ask the electorate to have votes on what they consider to be fundamental human rights? Why should judges decide?
You want to advocate referendums on such matters?
Why bother having judges at all? Just leave everything to public votes. After all, it’s not as if lawyers do anything other than spout words.
These are principles rather than specific cases. What gives judges the right to determine what is and what isn't acceptable?
What if, one day, these judges decide that detaining people in prison is against a person's human right?
Bad as judges are I would rather they were making decisions than the absolute donkeys in Westminster
So the public are now in full on panic mode. Good. The same morons who said it was just flu or a cold now realise the terrible fate awaiting us.
Hopefully now they might start doing the most basic of remedial actions rather than just sitting on social media howling at the moon.
Start washing your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering you utter cretins.
Three weeks ago. YouGov reports the British public are least concerned about Coronavirus and have done least to change their behaviour.
The public is not in full on panic mode. It only takes a few idiots to strip supermarket shelves of toilet roll. Most people will listen to advice and engage with it.
Actually, it also only takes a few responsible shoppers who have worked out that if you may have to self-isolate for two weeks it is in everybody's interest that you have an extra 12 rolls of toilet roll. Idiot panic buying could be anything from an out of control epidemic to a complete fiction, and nobody has the data to determine the question.
That’s nearly a roll a day: is that really what people usually use?
Casino said yesterday he needed 2-3 a week and one each for wife and children so 6+ a week. I normally buy packs of 16 or 18 but lasts for a long time, have 3 loos needing supplied but it lasts for months. God knows what people are doing with it.
All French ski resorts have just been closed. Not a surprise.
A full refund will be given in the form of a credit against a holiday next year.
Surely they have to give you your money back (not a credit) if they can't fulfill their part of the contract?
Jesus wept Benpointer...we need to give companies a break.....
I had an air trip and car hire in Italy early April...I'm not claiming back....these are businesses that employ people who have mortgages....times have changed
Let's stop being so fucking selfish...hashtag
good luck hoping that , greedy grasping low life's everywhere will be trying to make out of it, big amount of people would stiff you rather than be decent. We will see the mettle of people in this and UK will be found wanting in many cases for sure, the me me me attitude in UK is pretty dire.
Blimey, I'm being accused of being a 'greedy grasping lowlife' for wanting a refund (for our booked and fully paid for transantic QM2 crossing) rather than a 'future cruise credit'.
Anyone know when, if I took the credit, I might be able to use it? Will the parent company Carnival still be solvent? How much is travel insurance to the US going to be next year?
Ben, I was not meaning you in particular at all, quite the opposite and maybe badly worded. I meant your average greedy grasping Brit , we see examples regularly of them wanting something for nothing and this will accelerate.@benpointer
I thought I was a cynic, who had seen it all in politics.
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
It's strange how so many of them are left-wing. Usually they support the experts.
The other angle here is whether you pay attention to other countries, or whether the only authority you believe in is the *British* government.
Yep our myopia is quite fantastic. We genuinely seem to think the only top scientists are old British white men. Never mind the phenomenal knowledge base in places who are actually experienced in dealing with this kind of deadly disease.
It's so pathetic. Brexit is partly to blame, of course. The quaint old notion that Britain is actually still a superpower.
We're not. And we're making a laughing stock of ourselves.
As it happens, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is the world's leading authority on infectious diseases and pandemics. It's why they are called in to lead the charge on ebola, zika, chagas, etc.
The number 2 centre of expertise is the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. They are only wrong about one thing: they insist that they are the no. 1...
"how government really works - and not always work in the public's interest."
"Facebook" "trending". Who gives a flying fuck. No one has yet answered the question what countries in lockdown are going to do when the lockdown ends and international travel ramps up again. Unless you're really stupid and think every single person in the world is going to be cured by then?
I've answered this here maybe 10 times. Japan and South Korea have drastically slowed the spread with measures that (with the exception of school closures, which may be helping or may be making it worse) can be continued indefinitely. These countries are not shut down.
These measures are not dependent on eradication. They do not rely on everyone being cured. If you slow the spread so that the average infected person passes it on to less than one person, you'll keep getting clusters but they'll fizzle out rather than growing until everyone is infected.
They've done this to prevent widespread infection from happening in the first place, but it's not obvious that they wouldn't also work phased in emerging from a lockdown.
This is before you do all the things that could slow transmission given time to organize them, like China's pipeline of temperature reading -> dedicated fever clinic -> tests of escalating cost -> quarantine hospital.
It's true that it's not *certain* that this will work, but it's ridiculous to act as if there's no plausible alternative to the British approach, whatever that it.
There was an article today saying that Korea doesn't think they have solved it. They are actually earlier in the pandemic than people thing - the Daegu cluster was an anomaly which distorted the pattern
Incidentally I think coronavirus is the thing that could bring down Sturgeon rather than whatever bizarre rumour of the week is circulating on the Yooniverse.
Scotland is fundamentally bound by the UK approach, there is no ability to differentiate from England and regardless of the merits of the strategy when body count starts rising people are going to naturally blame whoever is in charge and in Scotland that is Sturgeon.
Don't be silly Alistair, we are all well aware of who is pulling the strings and preventing Scottish Government doing anything to help. We know who exactly is to blame when it all goes wrong , we will see the buffoon and his chums living it large and saying all is well, hard luck plebs.
Off the record, and therefore deniable, briefings relating to COVID-19 to selected journalists are a very bad look. Journalists with any integrity would refuse to report them. There is a duty right now to avoid any ambiguities. Confusion can quite literally be a killer. It’s time for all to be grown-up.
Yes, I think it's time for the government to have a much better approach to communicating everything with the public. One source of truth, whether that's the PM, Matt Hancock or some other spokesperson. All information should also be on an official website for the public to access easily rather than having to find out in some newspaper or via BBC news.
Exactly this. We need to trust the information being provided. For that to happen it needs to come from a named source. This is not a political game. New rules are required.
Although I could see there is advantage in a pre-briefing. For example with Peston, now when it is introduced it won't seem as much as a surprise as if the PM announced it.
But it certainly shouldn't be used for political advantage (and, to be clear, I don't believe it has been so far)
You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.
Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.
Assuming normal stocking resumes, surely a lot of this food is going to be wasted. People will be having Corona parties to get through it all
what kind of party do you have with toilet rolls, not sure it will be much fun
There are some interesting but speculative reports about ACE inhibition. Mainly because hypertension is cited as a co-morbidity. Not really my field, so interesting rather than worrying.
Well, if you use ACE inhibitors to manage hypertension it most definitely is worrying!
Even if there is no causal link between medication and propensity for greater severity of symptoms, then we’re still left with hypertension as a significant co-morbidity. More time and research could significantly aid all who have this.
I'm away to my bed, before my blood pressure explodes reading the bilge from the Left on Johnson's 'kill all the pensioners to save national insurance' policy crap.
This is what it is like for us lefties all the bloody time in the UK's oligarch media. Annoying innit?
Comments
In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.
"While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about 'behavioural fatigue' or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances," the letter said.
And yes, it’s a poor article, as it completely buried the lede:
But a Department of Health and Social care spokesperson said that Sir Patrick's comments had been misinterpreted.
"Herd immunity is not part of our action plan...
But if you’re suggesting the BBC ought not to be reporting this, then folderol, MD.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-coronavirus-quickly-people-symptoms.html
The Peaton rumour, if true, will test my theory, as I turned 70 last month, so apparenly I'll be in strict quarantine for 4 months (wow, I can post all day on PB!). I'm up for it - it's a blunt instrument as I'm really in better health than many younger people, but I appreciate the Government can't mess about with individual assessment. I assume some food arrangements will be made - I've got two weeks' supply of dried/frozen food, but haven't want to panic-buy more.
In general the measures that Peston leaks are more in line with other countries, so I'm happy to welcome them in principle. I'm puzzled by the Government's strategy, as some of the restrictions seem different from the "oh well, let's accept it and develop herd immunity gradually" idea. But with luck we'll get more clarity soon. If the idea is that most people develop immunity while oldies at higher risk are safely tucked away, I guess that's defensible.
Either you’re completely unqualified to have an opinion, or you’re spuriously appealing to authority....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873
Normally it's extroverts pestering introverts to be more outgoing. Bit weird for roles to be reversed.
https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1239110284415041537?s=21
Anyone know when, if I took the credit, I might be able to use it? Will the parent company Carnival still be solvent? How much is travel insurance to the US going to be next year?
I have no doubt which side Dura, Mystic etc would have been on -would have been pro steak and Tango posts from dawn to dusk.
History shows that Mrs T came out of that one 10 times as strong a PM.
Though he is not alone amongst combat vets in questioning wars and looking for a better solution.
Secondly, it will not be easy to take away from courts their power to require government and all arms of the state to obey their own laws. Lawyers are not daft.
Maybe it would be wise for the government here to pursue a policy to limit the spread as much as possible just for the time being and wait to confirm that the alternative strategy isn't going to work.
I think this is something that we really should err on the side of caution with.
"The department advises against all but essential travel to Mongolia due to the suspension of all flights until at least March 28, and recommended British nationals use charter flights scheduled for March 15 and 16."
What an absolute bloody shower this Government are.
https://news.sky.com/story/live-health-secretary-matt-hancock-speaks-to-sky-news-over-coronavirus-outbreak-11957762
I hope you all are starting to realise that Johnson isn't some master strategist. He's the buffoon we all saw before the election. It's his pure luck to have stood against cretin Corbyn.
Retirees are being systematically invited to return temporarily - I think to take on roles that release existing staff for more frontline positions wrt COVID-19.
Viking are offering 125% credit or a full refund for cancelled cruises. My view is take the cash or pray the Russian credit lines continue unhindered.
I can't afford to lose the value of a 12 grand holiday particularly as my self-employed earning potential is likely to fall through the floor over the coming weeks.
This thread is in hiding
Listened to an old boy today who had little food, scared to go out and first delivery he can get is 30th March, will be fun when over 70's are locked in their houses.
Make of it what you will, but they’re trying very hard here and failing to discover cases of local infection, close associates of people infected abroad are all testing negative.
The temperature here is in the high 20s at the moment.
Of course, there are some media outlets which would trumpet a panic-stricken tirade against the Government if it were penned by three blokes and a dog down the local boozer. The fact that Sophy Ridge picked it up and ran with it on Sky (I saw a few minutes of the Hancock interview before something more worthwhile started on another channel) reeks of laziness allied to a desire to sensationalise.
There must always be novelty, controversy, argument, and confected arguments will do at least as well if not better than rational debate. It's how news as an entertainment industry steals viewers, readers and listeners from rival providers.
The temptation at times like this in Britain is always to invoke the Wartime spirit. It's therefore worth remembering that, during that particular disaster, the Government didn't spend the entire time dissecting and explaining all the minutiae of its strategy to hyperventilating hacks, whilst a precisely totalised body count was broadcast every hour, on the hour, 24 hours a day on the wireless.
If anything resembling the present media environment had prevailed in 1939 then we'd never have got as far even as Dunkirk. The country would've had a collective nervous breakdown and surrendered by Christmas.
Scotland is fundamentally bound by the UK approach, there is no ability to differentiate from England and regardless of the merits of the strategy when body count starts rising people are going to naturally blame whoever is in charge and in Scotland that is Sturgeon.
I normally buy packs of 16 or 18 but lasts for a long time, have 3 loos needing supplied but it lasts for months. God knows what people are doing with it.
The number 2 centre of expertise is the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. They are only wrong about one thing: they insist that they are the no. 1...
But it certainly shouldn't be used for political advantage (and, to be clear, I don't believe it has been so far)
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/victorian-party-people-unrolled-mummies-for-fun
Even if there is no causal link between medication and propensity for greater severity of symptoms, then we’re still left with hypertension as a significant co-morbidity. More time and research could significantly aid all who have this.