If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Umm. Fair point.
Is it? You would argue we should have kept tens of thousands of ICU beds on standby just in case for the past 50 years? What a monumental waste of money that would have been for the NHS.
Indeed. During emergencies pay what you need for surge capacity, that doesn't need to be there all the time.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
Paradoxically if the number of cases is much higher than stated it means the death rate is much lower than thought, assuming the number of fatalities is correct.
We know with this disease is at the moment what can hugely affect the rate is if your system gets overloaded and crashes. South Korea and Japan haven't (as of yet) and thus have much lower death rates.
Exactly.......the death rates are comparable to the treatments we have available for keeping people alive.....if we have interventions and available beds that can keep co-morbid over 80's alive- as Germany now-the death rate is low...
But once hospital systems become overwhelmed and start rationing therapies- the scores on the doors will begin to level out.....and then bottom out....
The scores on the doors may well look much of a muchness at the end of the day across countries...all we are seeing now is the preamble which probably shows that Germany is quite good.....
All French ski resorts have just been closed. Not a surprise.
A full refund will be given in the form of a credit against a holiday next year.
Surely they have to give you your money back (not a credit) if they can't fulfill their part of the contract?
Jesus wept Benpointer...we need to give companies a break.....
I had an air trip and car hire in Italy early April...I'm not claiming back....these are businesses that employ people who have mortgages....times have changed
Let's stop being so fucking selfish...hashtag
It's a view; they wouldn't give you the same benefit if you'd cancelled on them of course.
No..but I have relied on these businesses to service my needs as I have needed to travel.....
Now is the time to give them something back don't you think?
Or at the least cut them slack....I fucking despise this mentality "you need to get your money back.."
I've lost well over 120 grand this last fortnight...but the big picture seriously is how we get through the Covid 19 relatively intact....
I’m kinda coming around to that view, being in a small business myself. If everyone demands refunds and fails to make good on orders we are all fucked. Keep on keeping on, I would say, and read up on the sunk costs fallacy. (I write this as someone who is about to ‘lose’ £1,200 on a weekend holiday to Spain)
"In Seattle, where one hospital is reportedly preparing for Northern Italy levels of infection and already running low on some supplies, bars in the Capitol Hill neighborhood have been full of people. On Friday evening, a Twitter search for the phrase “the bars are packed” yielded hundreds of tweets from cities like Baltimore; Columbus, Ohio; Los Angeles and New York City. On Saturday in Chicago, one reporter tweeted a photo of a line around the block for a St. Patrick’s Day bar crawl at 8 a.m."
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
We have 1000 confirmed our CMO thinks we have 10,000. I think that might be the answer.
He thought we had 10,000 when we had less than 500 confirmed 2 days ago.
Yes there are wide confidence intervals on our known unknowns. The point is the Italians and us will have an order of magnitude more in the population than the confirmed cases.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Umm. Fair point.
Is it? You would argue we should have kept tens of thousands of ICU beds on standby just in case for the past 50 years? What a monumental waste of money that would have been for the NHS.
10 years of icu beds cost will be spent in less than 3 months at 50 times the price.
Still a nice little earner for some private sector organisation
For all the cruise loving wastrels on here. Don't worry, Trump has got your back. It looks like the QE2 will be ploughing its oily furrow for decades to come.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Umm. Fair point.
Is it? You would argue we should have kept tens of thousands of ICU beds on standby just in case for the past 50 years? What a monumental waste of money that would have been for the NHS.
10 years of icu beds cost will be spent in less than 3 months at 50 times the price.
Still a nice little earner for some private sector organisation
Israel plans to use anti-terrorism tracking technology and a partial shutdown of its economy to minimise the risk of coronavirus transmission, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday.
Cyber tech monitoring would be deployed to locate people who have been in contact with those carrying the virus, subject to cabinet approval, Netanyahu told a news conference in Jerusalem.
The bank bailout of 2008. It's going to make it much harder to bailout businesses like airlines this time.
I assume that the Government is actually relying on the banks to bailout otherwise viable businesses with emergency loans? I distinctly recall an announcement from the Bank of England on the counter-cyclical easing of the banking sector's capital buffers, to enable them to hose down the problem with cash.
Any loans advanced will presumably be made based on an assessment of individual circumstances, i.e. the crisis will be used as a device to allow some businesses that were already struggling to go bust, whilst keeping those that should be able to survive under normal trading conditions afloat. This may even prove to be a beneficial side-effect of an otherwise disastrous situation: concerns have been expressed for years in some quarters about persistently low interest rates enabling some zombie corporations to survive.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Umm. Fair point.
Is it? You would argue we should have kept tens of thousands of ICU beds on standby just in case for the past 50 years? What a monumental waste of money that would have been for the NHS.
10 years of icu beds cost will be spent in less than 3 months at 50 times the price.
Still a nice little earner for some private sector organisation
Again, where's the source for this number of 50x?
According to the likes of the Telegraph and ITN there is no buying, they are being commandeered.
We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Umm. Fair point.
Is it? You would argue we should have kept tens of thousands of ICU beds on standby just in case for the past 50 years? What a monumental waste of money that would have been for the NHS.
10 years of icu beds cost will be spent in less than 3 months at 50 times the price.
Still a nice little earner for some private sector organisation
Again, where's the source for this number of 50x?
According to the likes of the Telegraph and ITN there is no buying, they are being commandeered.
All French ski resorts have just been closed. Not a surprise.
A full refund will be given in the form of a credit against a holiday next year.
Surely they have to give you your money back (not a credit) if they can't fulfill their part of the contract?
Jesus wept Benpointer...we need to give companies a break.....
I had an air trip and car hire in Italy early April...I'm not claiming back....these are businesses that employ people who have mortgages....times have changed
Let's stop being so fucking selfish...hashtag
It's a view; they wouldn't give you the same benefit if you'd cancelled on them of course.
No..but I have relied on these businesses to service my needs as I have needed to travel.....
Now is the time to give them something back don't you think?
Or at the least cut them slack....I fucking despise this mentality "you need to get your money back.."
I've lost well over 120 grand this last fortnight...but the big picture seriously is how we get through the Covid 19 relatively intact....
I’m kinda coming around to that view, being in a small business myself. If everyone demands refunds and fails to make good on orders we are all fucked. Keep on keeping on, I would say, and read up on the sunk costs fallacy. (I write this as someone who is about to ‘lose’ £1,200 on a weekend holiday to Spain)
We are all going to lose out in the next year or two.....some of us won't be here because of this virus, some are going to lose family and friends....but.....
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Its the Sunday People...they say the government with pay £300 a day per bed....cost for an NHS bed, £400 a day (in 2017).
We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.
Sounds like some desperate reverse-ferreting to me.
"In Seattle, where one hospital is reportedly preparing for Northern Italy levels of infection and already running low on some supplies, bars in the Capitol Hill neighborhood have been full of people. On Friday evening, a Twitter search for the phrase “the bars are packed” yielded hundreds of tweets from cities like Baltimore; Columbus, Ohio; Los Angeles and New York City. On Saturday in Chicago, one reporter tweeted a photo of a line around the block for a St. Patrick’s Day bar crawl at 8 a.m."
I am working in the USA at the moment and have been shocked at how blase people are. People are going to the bars because their offices are closed. Parents are organizing playdates because the kids are off schools. Private gyms and kids groups are organizing camps for kids to attend. Everyone seems like they expect it to go away in a few weeks. It is hard to see how this won't end in disaster. It all seems to stem from the lack of a BBC, CBC or equivalent that everyone listens to. People listen to their own preferred media, many of which are not focused on COVID.
We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.
Sounds like some desperate reverse-ferreting to me.
I don't think so. I think the science guys have been saying the end result will be herd immunity whatever we do, but we can mitigate the pain, and that has become the goal: the herd.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Umm. Fair point.
Is it? You would argue we should have kept tens of thousands of ICU beds on standby just in case for the past 50 years? What a monumental waste of money that would have been for the NHS.
10 years of icu beds cost will be spent in less than 3 months at 50 times the price.
Still a nice little earner for some private sector organisation
Again, where's the source for this number of 50x?
According to the likes of the Telegraph and ITN there is no buying, they are being commandeered.
It is beyond belief that the Left are now using this once-in-a-generation crisis to attempt to show that Boris is a liar, at best, or a mass murderer bent on killing every gran in the country.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Umm. Fair point.
Is it? You would argue we should have kept tens of thousands of ICU beds on standby just in case for the past 50 years? What a monumental waste of money that would have been for the NHS.
10 years of icu beds cost will be spent in less than 3 months at 50 times the price.
Still a nice little earner for some private sector organisation
Again, where's the source for this number of 50x?
According to the likes of the Telegraph and ITN there is no buying, they are being commandeered.
Leased I thought they said
At £300 a day, which is lower than the NHS cost of £400+ a day for a bed.
We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.
Sounds like some desperate reverse-ferreting to me.
I don't think so. I think the science guys have been saying the end result will be herd immunity whatever we do, but we can mitigate the pain, and that has become the goal: the herd.
"We think this virus is likely to be one that comes back year on year and becomes like a seasonal virus and communities will become immune to it and that's going to be an important part of controlling this in the longer term," said the government's chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, who added "60% is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity."
Sounds like he was saying 60% was a target so yes, reverse ferret.
It is beyond belief that the Left are now using this once-in-a-generation crisis to attempt to show that Boris is a liar, at best, or a mass murderer bent on killing every gran in the country.
It doesn't even make sense. Why would Boris want to kill his client vote?
It is beyond belief that the Left are now using this once-in-a-generation crisis to attempt to show that Boris is a liar, at best, or a mass murderer bent on killing every gran in the country.
It doesn't even make sense. Why would Boris want to kill his client vote?
Don't ask for sense. We are back in the usual mode: if a Conservative suggest it then it must involve mass murder and dead babies.
Whereas everywhere else is banking the virus doesn't come in waves.
No, they know the virus comes in waves.
They've just made a different cost-benefit analysis decision to us.
Only time will tell who is right.
Personally, I think the UK will rapidly switch to the continental (and Asian) "shut it down" model, because the headlines of large numbers of infected, in ICU and/or dying are too serious.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
The thing here is that 21000 cases isn't overwhelming the Italian health system, rather a few thousand active cases is overwhelming the system in a few specific localities in Northern Italy. Patients are being transferred/initially admitted to neighbouring hospitals to some extent to manage capacity, but once you get to an immediate ICU need, transfer options are less. Also if you are in the worst infection zone, all your neighbouring areas all have high rates of infection. But that scenario is localised.
As such, 16 years is not the correct answer here. However, if we cannot do it in 6 months, and I don't think we can and I don't think it is wise, we still get hit again in the winter.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
Watching Sky papers and hoping against hope they aren’t profiteering. We will see.
The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.
I really would have hoped they had done this 2-3 weeks ago. Lets just hope they can get a load made before the bomb goes off. It is clear from that link, that Boris has now told them if you make it, we will buy it. Hopefully it is possible to ramp up production.
Not yet - the call is not until Monday. Although why we have to wait until after a weekend stumps me.
Monday is probably making official what is already happening. Just as the last Monday Cobra meeting was really the culmination of a huge amount of work that began in January.
Because people are more likely to be at home on a Monday when the lockdown begins
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
Watching Sky papers and hoping against hope they aren’t profiteering. We will see.
In fact, it seems as though the government got a bargain
It is beyond belief that the Left are now using this once-in-a-generation crisis to attempt to show that Boris is a liar, at best, or a mass murderer bent on killing every gran in the country.
Does the Home Guard still exist? It may be needed to ensure people don't buy too many essentials for themselves, denying them to others.
You could just make the shops limit how much they sell to people. No soldiers are involved in preventing sales of drink to under 18s, so why would they be necessary or useful here?
It is beyond belief that the Left are now using this once-in-a-generation crisis to attempt to show that Boris is a liar, at best, or a mass murderer bent on killing every gran in the country.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
Watching Sky papers and hoping against hope they aren’t profiteering. We will see.
In fact, it seems as though the government got a bargain
If it’s £300/day as Francis says, that’s a seriously good deal 👍
We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus, our strategy is to protect the most vulnerable and protect the NHS through contain, delay, research and mitigate.
Sounds like some desperate reverse-ferreting to me.
I don't think so. I think the science guys have been saying the end result will be herd immunity whatever we do, but we can mitigate the pain, and that has become the goal: the herd.
"We think this virus is likely to be one that comes back year on year and becomes like a seasonal virus and communities will become immune to it and that's going to be an important part of controlling this in the longer term," said the government's chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, who added "60% is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity."
Sounds like he was saying 60% was a target so yes, reverse ferret.
"Nothing has changed."
No he's saying 60% will happen in the long term, not that it is a target.
Whereas everywhere else is banking the virus doesn't come in waves.
No, they know the virus comes in waves.
They've just made a different cost-benefit analysis decision to us.
Only time will tell who is right.
Personally, I think the UK will rapidly switch to the continental (and Asian) "shut it down" model, because the headlines of large numbers of infected, in ICU and/or dying are too serious.
Exactly...the NHS gets overwhelmed...and the semantic, intellectual playbook nonsense espoused by Cummings.....
Human beings are emotional...to define us as a herd is shocking.......whoever is in that minority 40%- over 75's and those with co-morbidity will be offered no medical intervention to keep them alive....most of the 40% will survive, but for those that die (horribly- drowning and sentient over days) it'll be the same line...old and co-morbid.....
"In Seattle, where one hospital is reportedly preparing for Northern Italy levels of infection and already running low on some supplies, bars in the Capitol Hill neighborhood have been full of people. On Friday evening, a Twitter search for the phrase “the bars are packed” yielded hundreds of tweets from cities like Baltimore; Columbus, Ohio; Los Angeles and New York City. On Saturday in Chicago, one reporter tweeted a photo of a line around the block for a St. Patrick’s Day bar crawl at 8 a.m."
I am working in the USA at the moment and have been shocked at how blase people are. People are going to the bars because their offices are closed. Parents are organizing playdates because the kids are off schools. Private gyms and kids groups are organizing camps for kids to attend. Everyone seems like they expect it to go away in a few weeks. It is hard to see how this won't end in disaster. It all seems to stem from the lack of a BBC, CBC or equivalent that everyone listens to. People listen to their own preferred media, many of which are not focused on COVID.
Are they necessarily being reckless? I suppose it depends on whether or not the authorities have issued instructions that it is necessary to desist from these behaviours.
As far as I'm concerned, life goes on more-or-less as normal for the time being. I've been stocking up on supplies (that's partly because I've been spooked by panic buying, but also because we've been instructed to self-isolate if we fall ill and exhibit certain symptoms,) I've been fretting a bit over what's yet to come, and I've been in communication with aged parents to reassure myself that they're getting ready for quarantine (which they are.) But apart from that what are we (or those Americans) meant to do? Cower in our homes all day every day shitting ourselves?
Quite beside anything else I have a job and I can't work from home. I have to go to work and spend all day with a load of other people, so I judge that I'm more at risk of getting fat and depressed sat at home for the rest of the time than I am of perishing of this disease if I dare to venture back out and interact with a few more people when I go shopping, out to dinner or to the gym. Especially given that I'm reasonably fit, not that old, and therefore in rather more danger of dying of cancer or in a road traffic accident than I am of being carried off by Covid-19. And we don't spend our entire lives panicking about either of those other causes of mortality. We wouldn't be able to function.
Nor is there presently any instruction that people not exhibiting signs of illness should change their behaviour for the safety of others, save for the constant basic hygiene messages which I was already following anyway. I don't like being mucky.
Thus, I'm going to keep behaving normally until the Government says that it is important that I stop going to certain places, or try not to go out at all. And then I will help them to implement their plan by obeying those instructions.
Perhaps those people, or a substantial fraction of them at least, have also thought it through and share this analysis?
The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.
I really would have hoped they had done this 2-3 weeks ago. Lets just hope they can get a load made before the bomb goes off. It is clear from that link, that Boris has now told them if you make it, we will buy it. Hopefully it is possible to ramp up production.
Not yet - the call is not until Monday. Although why we have to wait until after a weekend stumps me.
Monday is probably making official what is already happening. Just as the last Monday Cobra meeting was really the culmination of a huge amount of work that began in January.
Because people are more likely to be at home on a Monday when the lockdown begins
Spot on. I said the other day that Monday night 2100 is the time to hammer down the quarantine. Monday evenings are the nights where most people are at home, as you say - back from long weekends and the least popular of all nights for evening events.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
Watching Sky papers and hoping against hope they aren’t profiteering. We will see.
In fact, it seems as though the government got a bargain
If it’s £300/day as Francis says, that’s a seriously good deal 👍
8,000 private hospital beds rented to NHS for £2.4million per day
I thought I was a cynic, who had seen it all in politics.
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
Watching Sky papers and hoping against hope they aren’t profiteering. We will see.
In fact, it seems as though the government got a bargain
If it’s £300/day as Francis says, that’s a seriously good deal 👍
8,000 private hospital beds rented to NHS for £2.4million per day
I thought I was a cynic, who had seen it all in politics.
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
The number in the media and partisans who think the normal rules of the game apply i.e. get a group letter signed and up-sell it as "scientists and experts" (of which basically none are experts in the field).
This isn't normal times, this is war.
The grown-ups like Dougie Alexander realise this, while Mason plays silly buggers.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
Watching Sky papers and hoping against hope they aren’t profiteering. We will see.
In fact, it seems as though the government got a bargain
If it’s £300/day as Francis says, that’s a seriously good deal 👍
8,000 private hospital beds rented to NHS for £2.4million per day
I thought I was a cynic, who had seen it all in politics.
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
It's strange how so many of them are left-wing. Usually they support the experts.
Am I wailing at the moon here. The Mirror says the government are paying £300 a day, which is below the cost of operating an NHS bed.
That is astonishingly low for even a bed in a ward (let alone a private room) - even if that is just the facilities with no staff.
On topic - one issue with ECHR, which was seen over the prisoners vote issue, is the modern legal concept of continual progression. The law must progress. Therefore, lawyers and judges must continuously re-examine the law to interpret it in an ever more progressive direction.
The problem with this approach is firstly - who defines progress?
Secondly, it sounds very nice to the lawyers. But to the politicians it sounds like technocrats re-writing the law and leaving them out of the loop.
Thirdly it sounds to the common people like an end-run around their right to govern. "Keep the coinage and the courts. Let the rabble have the rest". I'm sure a glass of port might be raised to that one.
What I urged my friends and relatives in the USA fro many years to push for was this - by all means progress. But do so by changing the law. Oh, they say, we can't do anything about the second amendment (say). We have to re-interpret it as the right of bears to own arms or something. It is the only way.
*The only way*. Think about it. If you can't carry the people then your laws are an imposition. You have nothing.
I saw this in the UK, once, rather clearly. The System said - we will not touch these people. So the local people went and... touched them.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
Watching Sky papers and hoping against hope they aren’t profiteering. We will see.
In fact, it seems as though the government got a bargain
If it’s £300/day as Francis says, that’s a seriously good deal 👍
8,000 private hospital beds rented to NHS for £2.4million per day
Its like the government created a plan or something....now obviously if that turns out to be the optimal strategy is another thing, but they really aren't making this up as they go along.
I thought I was a cynic, who had seen it all in politics.
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
The number in the media and partisans who think the normal rules of the game apply i.e. get a group letter signed and up-sell it as "scientists and experts" (of which basically none are experts in the field).
This isn't normal times, this is war.
The grown-ups like Dougie Alexander realise this, while Mason plays silly buggers.
Indeed.
I had forgotten about wee Dougie. But Labour need him and his ilk back pronto.
I think I might have to switch off from following the media / social media, as it might cause me to have a heart attack.
We need the nation to pull together, but it seems lots of people still have Boris Derangement Syndrome affecting their judgement.
Noting wrong with the sensible criticism / questioning such as Hunt and Ashworth have undertaken, but the rest of the crap, its like they want the virus to win just to damage Boris.
If Italy has 21,157 confirmed cases which is managing to overwhelm their health system, then how would the British plan to have 60-80% infected work without doing the same many times over.
That is 39-52 million people getting the virus.
Even if the Italian cases are in reality 10 times more, so 210,000, we are still planing on have 185-247 times as many people infected overall in comparison to Italy right now.
Italy has been swamped for weeks on those lower numbers, so if as planned we have people getting infected at an even slower than them as they did it too fast (let's say a month for 210,000 people instead of 3 weeks), then the whole operation would take about about 200 months, which is about 16 years.
I don't really see how this is plausible.
Italy does not have enough critical care beds.
It has more than twice as many as us 12.8 per 100,000 compared to our 6.3 per 100,000.
Here's a newsflash for you. No country has enough ICU beds. If they had enough ICU beds, they'd have been wasting a staggering amount of money on them for the past hundred years.
We have the least in Western Europe but we can wash our hands and carry on praising the cutting of a 1/3 of Acute beds since 2010.
How cheap do you think panic buying private sector beds at over 50 times the going rate for an Acute bed is?
At this point I doubt the price of things is a concern for the government.
Well you claimed having more beds was too expensive a minute ago make your mind up.
Having them when you don't need them is expensive. And they would have gone unused decades if we had enough to deal with the current outbreak. I would have thought you would have been against waste in the NHS?
2.4m per bed as opposed to 48000 per bed though. The private sector ripping off the taxpayer by a multiple of 50 is obscene
I expect as a capitalist you approve of supply and demand and super profit though.
What's the source of this number?
5 live quoting one of tomorrows front pages
Sounds like that might have been the asking price, and the government just said "fuck that" and requisitioned them.
Hopefully.
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Thanks for clarifying it was actually just #fakenews.
Watching Sky papers and hoping against hope they aren’t profiteering. We will see.
In fact, it seems as though the government got a bargain
If it’s £300/day as Francis says, that’s a seriously good deal 👍
8,000 private hospital beds rented to NHS for £2.4million per day
I’ve no problem with paying £300/day - easy way to keep money moving around the economy. The government needs find other outlets for pumping cash about the place.
Interesting fact: in Germany and Scandinavia the current mortality rate is only twice that of seasonal flu: 0.2 vs 0.1.
There are a large number of therapies you can use to keep people alive in the most sophisticated ICUs where there is capacity.....
If Covid 19 swept through an immigrant camp in Turkey...do you still think the mortality rate will be 0.2%.
The only difference is the medical capacity and range of therapies to treat human beings who are sick. I cannot understand why you have not grasped this...and seek to use this data as some indication that there is a master race.....
I’ve no problem with paying £300/day - easy way to keep money moving around the economy. The government needs find other outlets for pumping cash about the place.
Interesting fact: in Germany and Scandinavia the current mortality rate is only twice that of seasonal flu: 0.2 vs 0.1.
There are a large number of therapies you can use to keep people alive in the most sophisticated ICUs where there is capacity.....
If Covid 19 swept through an immigrant camp in Turkey...do you still think the mortality rate will be 0.2%.
The only difference is the medical capacity and range of therapies to treat human beings who are sick. I cannot understand why you have not grasped this...and seek to use this data as some indication that there is a master race.....
You're the person who went to discussing race, not Andy.
I thought I was a cynic, who had seen it all in politics.
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
Does the Home Guard still exist? It may be needed to ensure people don't buy too many essentials for themselves, denying them to others.
You could just make the shops limit how much they sell to people. No soldiers are involved in preventing sales of drink to under 18s, so why would they be necessary or useful here?
This would be helpful. In fact, the shops have been doing some of this already, although the limits they set are often so high as to be useless and laughable ("five items each" in the Tesco bog roll aisle, for example, which means someone can still load five dozen-roll bags of Andrex into their trolley and wheel them off.) But there is also, I would imagine, some concern about civil disorder.
Fights are already breaking out sporadically over panic-hoarded goods, and things may well get considerably worse once the big self-isolation order is issued and all the medically vulnerable people and over 70s in the land all have to go into quarantine at once. Many, perhaps most, of them will be ill-prepared, leading to pandaemonium in the shops.
I think I might have to switch off from following the media / social media, as it might cause me to have a heart attack.
We need the nation to pull together, but it seems lots of people still have Boris Derangement Syndrome affecting their judgement.
Noting wrong with the sensible criticism / questioning such as Hunt and Ashworth have undertaken, but the rest of the crap, its like they want the virus to win just to damage Boris.
My centre-left cousin is a doctor deeply involved in the virus response from her hospital. She says they are all supportive of what Boris is trying to do.
Interesting fact: in Germany and Scandinavia the current mortality rate is only twice that of seasonal flu: 0.2 vs 0.1.
There are a large number of therapies you can use to keep people alive in the most sophisticated ICUs where there is capacity.....
If Covid 19 swept through an immigrant camp in Turkey...do you still think the mortality rate will be 0.2%.
The only difference is the medical capacity and range of therapies to treat human beings who are sick. I cannot understand why you have not grasped this...and seek to use this data as some indication that there is a master race.....
The point of my post was to show what is possible, and to hope we can extend that to as many other places as we can, difficult though that may be.
Comments
Coronavirus Live Updates: France Closes Most Businesses and Spain Moves Toward Locking Down
But once hospital systems become overwhelmed and start rationing therapies- the scores on the doors will begin to level out.....and then bottom out....
The scores on the doors may well look much of a muchness at the end of the day across countries...all we are seeing now is the preamble which probably shows that Germany is quite good.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY
"In Seattle, where one hospital is reportedly preparing for Northern Italy levels of infection and already running low on some supplies, bars in the Capitol Hill neighborhood have been full of people. On Friday evening, a Twitter search for the phrase “the bars are packed” yielded hundreds of tweets from cities like Baltimore; Columbus, Ohio; Los Angeles and New York City. On Saturday in Chicago, one reporter tweeted a photo of a line around the block for a St. Patrick’s Day bar crawl at 8 a.m."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/opinion/coronavirus-bars-lockdown.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1238960146342084609
Still a nice little earner for some private sector organisation
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/14/white-house-signals-third-relief-bill-to-help-airline-and-cruise-industries-hit-by-coronavirus-pandemic.html
Socialism for the rich etc etc
Cyber tech monitoring would be deployed to locate people who have been in contact with those carrying the virus, subject to cabinet approval, Netanyahu told a news conference in Jerusalem.
Any loans advanced will presumably be made based on an assessment of individual circumstances, i.e. the crisis will be used as a device to allow some businesses that were already struggling to go bust, whilst keeping those that should be able to survive under normal trading conditions afloat. This may even prove to be a beneficial side-effect of an otherwise disastrous situation: concerns have been expressed for years in some quarters about persistently low interest rates enabling some zombie corporations to survive.
Andra tutto bene......
It'll be alright.....
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-nhs-steps-up-fight-21694418
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stay-hospital-bed-uk-costs-400-per-day-we-sure-bryce-travers
BJO can you stop repeating this nonsense now.
https://twitter.com/jennywackett/status/1238924133536317443
Bloke on 5 live reckoned cost per day was inflated by a factor of 50 dont see that number in the article though tbf.
Anyway I am self isolating myself from PB till tomorrow goodnight
Sounds like he was saying 60% was a target so yes, reverse ferret.
"Nothing has changed."
https://twitter.com/LEAPUP1/status/1238967420682985473
They've just made a different cost-benefit analysis decision to us.
Only time will tell who is right.
Personally, I think the UK will rapidly switch to the continental (and Asian) "shut it down" model, because the headlines of large numbers of infected, in ICU and/or dying are too serious.
As such, 16 years is not the correct answer here. However, if we cannot do it in 6 months, and I don't think we can and I don't think it is wise, we still get hit again in the winter.
This is a leading trade unionist:
https://twitter.com/BeckettUnite/status/1238837899824685057
Human beings are emotional...to define us as a herd is shocking.......whoever is in that minority 40%- over 75's and those with co-morbidity will be offered no medical intervention to keep them alive....most of the 40% will survive, but for those that die (horribly- drowning and sentient over days) it'll be the same line...old and co-morbid.....
Helpful.
Not.
Yeah, astronomers and mathematicians.
As far as I'm concerned, life goes on more-or-less as normal for the time being. I've been stocking up on supplies (that's partly because I've been spooked by panic buying, but also because we've been instructed to self-isolate if we fall ill and exhibit certain symptoms,) I've been fretting a bit over what's yet to come, and I've been in communication with aged parents to reassure myself that they're getting ready for quarantine (which they are.) But apart from that what are we (or those Americans) meant to do? Cower in our homes all day every day shitting ourselves?
Quite beside anything else I have a job and I can't work from home. I have to go to work and spend all day with a load of other people, so I judge that I'm more at risk of getting fat and depressed sat at home for the rest of the time than I am of perishing of this disease if I dare to venture back out and interact with a few more people when I go shopping, out to dinner or to the gym. Especially given that I'm reasonably fit, not that old, and therefore in rather more danger of dying of cancer or in a road traffic accident than I am of being carried off by Covid-19. And we don't spend our entire lives panicking about either of those other causes of mortality. We wouldn't be able to function.
Nor is there presently any instruction that people not exhibiting signs of illness should change their behaviour for the safety of others, save for the constant basic hygiene messages which I was already following anyway. I don't like being mucky.
Thus, I'm going to keep behaving normally until the Government says that it is important that I stop going to certain places, or try not to go out at all. And then I will help them to implement their plan by obeying those instructions.
Perhaps those people, or a substantial fraction of them at least, have also thought it through and share this analysis?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-nhs-steps-up-fight-21694418
Yet, I have to say, I am genuinely stunned by the number of people on twitter who are desperate, and I mean desperate, to see the Chief Science Officer and Chief Medic wrong.
The way their tweets read. They want granny to die to prove Boris should never have trusted these guys.
This isn't normal times, this is war.
The grown-ups like Dougie Alexander realise this, while Mason plays silly buggers.
On topic - one issue with ECHR, which was seen over the prisoners vote issue, is the modern legal concept of continual progression. The law must progress. Therefore, lawyers and judges must continuously re-examine the law to interpret it in an ever more progressive direction.
The problem with this approach is firstly - who defines progress?
Secondly, it sounds very nice to the lawyers. But to the politicians it sounds like technocrats re-writing the law and leaving them out of the loop.
Thirdly it sounds to the common people like an end-run around their right to govern. "Keep the coinage and the courts. Let the rabble have the rest". I'm sure a glass of port might be raised to that one.
What I urged my friends and relatives in the USA fro many years to push for was this - by all means progress. But do so by changing the law. Oh, they say, we can't do anything about the second amendment (say). We have to re-interpret it as the right of bears to own arms or something. It is the only way.
*The only way*. Think about it. If you can't carry the people then your laws are an imposition. You have nothing.
I saw this in the UK, once, rather clearly. The System said - we will not touch these people. So the local people went and... touched them.
I had forgotten about wee Dougie. But Labour need him and his ilk back pronto.
We need the nation to pull together, but it seems lots of people still have Boris Derangement Syndrome affecting their judgement.
Noting wrong with the sensible criticism / questioning such as Hunt and Ashworth have undertaken, but the rest of the crap, its like they want the virus to win just to damage Boris.
My mother Whatsapp'ed me to say "Boris wants us all to die" so the communication strategy clearly isn't working.
There are a large number of therapies you can use to keep people alive in the most sophisticated ICUs where there is capacity.....
If Covid 19 swept through an immigrant camp in Turkey...do you still think the mortality rate will be 0.2%.
The only difference is the medical capacity and range of therapies to treat human beings who are sick. I cannot understand why you have not grasped this...and seek to use this data as some indication that there is a master race.....
I have deja vu.
Fights are already breaking out sporadically over panic-hoarded goods, and things may well get considerably worse once the big self-isolation order is issued and all the medically vulnerable people and over 70s in the land all have to go into quarantine at once. Many, perhaps most, of them will be ill-prepared, leading to pandaemonium in the shops.