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What is it about the European Convention on Human Rights which so riles some on the right (and, if reports are to be believed, the PM’s closest advisor)?

Read the full story here

topherdawson

First! As human rights should be. The UK needs to stay within the ECHR or risk looking like a banana republic.

FrancisUrquhart

Andy_JS said:

How many MPs are 70+?

A Mr J Corbyn of Islington...how unfortunate he will locked away for 4 months.

HYUFD

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

RobD

Thanks for the header, CycleFree

FrancisUrquhart

edmundintokyo said:

OllyT said:

If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

Are we clear thst creating herd immunity is actually the policy? It seems like one of the boffins mentioned it but the people involved in making the model seem saying this is just an inevitable outcome, rather than the goal. Then a bunch of people who *support* the government seem to be jumping on it because it gives them a way to claim the delay and confusion was part of a cunning and brilliant expert plan, rather than the British getting knocked on their arses like everybody else without recent SARS experience.

Yes it is the government position. It was first mentioned by a member of the behavioural insight team, but has since been confirmed by the two big egg-heads leading this. It definitely isn't just a Cummings lacky speaking out of turn.

UK's chief scientific adviser tells ITV News he hopes Government's approach to coronavirus will create 'herd immunity'

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-13/uk-s-chief-scientific-adviser-tells-itv-news-he-hopes-government-s-approach-to-coronavirus-will-create-herd-immunity/

Casino_Royale

I'm sure this is an excellent thread header.

However, I need a full night's sleep before I'm in a position to digest it.

IshmaelZ

I note from Worldometer the number of serious/ critical Diamond Princess patients has fallen from 32 to 15. With 7 deaths the maximum possible fatality rate there is therefore down to 22/696 or 3.1%.

kyf_100

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

FrancisUrquhart

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

Well people say that, lets see if we offer everybody a Chinese style surveillance app if they will accept it? That will keep us much safer and more secure.

HYUFD

France is closing all restaurants, cafes, cinemas, nightclubs and non essential businesses

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51892477

Casino_Royale

Will there be any country left that doesn't ban travel to another?

FrancisUrquhart

HYUFD said:

France is closing all restaurants, cafes, cinemas, nightclubs and non essential businesses

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51892477

Be interesting if the public stick to it. The Yellow Vest LARPers were out again today for a punch up.

HYUFD

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

They want both but security in a crisis

RobD

Casino_Royale said:

Will there be any country left that doesn't ban travel to another?

The UK and Ireland?

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1238948803933286401

FrancisUrquhart

Well, while every major sports league in the world shut down, cage fighting is still on.

Foxy

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

They are very good headers, but not unrelated to Coronavirus. Ms @Cyclefree is making productive time from her sensible seclusion.

RobD

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1238948803933286401

Shouldn't that headline be

"Foreign Office AGREED to abide by international law"?

Andy_JS

Casino_Royale said:

Will there be any country left that doesn't ban travel to another?

Norway and Sweden would be the last one to close, one would imagine.

Casino_Royale

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

Will there be any country left that doesn't ban travel to another?

Norway and Sweden would be the last one to close, one would imagine.

Probably. I'd put that after the UK/Eire common travel area.

Scott_xP

If we really are on a war footing, the other thing that needs to end is the invisible PM.

There should be daily press conferences, on the BBC.

Selectively briefing a few pet journalists who then 'debate' the news on Twitter is not helping, and the BBC boycott is beyond petty.

Nigelb

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

Some.
Others, not so much.

Barnesian

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

My folks are both over 70 and taking this entirely unseriously.

They basically think it's lefties/the younger generation being snowflakes and reacting to it is a bit wet.

I've tried to tell them in no uncertain terms it's the real deal but they aren't changing their plans, other than stopping going to the gym.

Even only cutting out the gym is probably a huge reduction in risk for them.

Yes, it's definitely something.

From my wife's WhatsApp their reaction is pretty typical of their generation.

None of my friends parents are worrying either.

It's their children that are the problem.

Scott_xP

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

Will there be any country left that doesn't ban travel to another?

Norway and Sweden would be the last one to close, one would imagine.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1238949445867376641

rcs1000

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

Have you been reading Leviathan again?

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1238949399197343749

IshmaelZ

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

They are very good headers, but not unrelated to Coronavirus. Ms @Cyclefree is making productive time from her sensible seclusion.

Isaac Newton invented calculus while secluded from Cambridge by the plague of 1665.

Casino_Royale

Scott_xP said:

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

Will there be any country left that doesn't ban travel to another?

Norway and Sweden would be the last one to close, one would imagine.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1238949445867376641

For a second there I thought Alison Moyet had dyed her hair and put on weight again.

It would have been one heck of a career change.

Casino_Royale

Right, bed.

Night.

FrancisUrquhart

I see Carole Conspiracy has been deleting her more crazed tweets.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see Carole Conspiracy has been deleting her more crazed tweets.

Any associated apologies?

Nigelb

Perhaps this is the core of the objections. If you think that a sovereign nation should be free to do whatever it wants, why accept any constitutional or other restraint on Parliamentary sovereignty?

This is the crux of your excellent article.
The overly expansive claim that the will of the people justifies anything is as old as democracy.

Black_Rook

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

People want both, but if liberty threatens security then security will tend to win out, because security speaks to the more basic need of survival. It's what ruined the coalition's attempts to state build in Iraq - quite beyond the difficulties of imposing a democratic system in a country with no democratic tradition of its own, they failed to provide basic security. Thus, the project never stood a chance.

The trade off between liberty and security needn't necessarily lead to sinister outcomes, of course. Liberty was very heavily curtailed in favour of security in wartime Britain, but it was a necessary evil so that liberty could survive and be restored in the longer term.

FWIW, not all people by any means are begging for the Government to enact Draconian measures at this stage - it's just that those who do are scared stiff and panicking, happen to have very loud voices, or some combination of the two.

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see Carole Conspiracy has been deleting her more crazed tweets.

Any associated apologies?

It is good to see some journalists (who naturally aren't government fans) calling her out.

IanB2

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

matthiasfromhamburg

FrancisUrquhart said:

edmundintokyo said:

OllyT said:

If the policy in the UK is to allow the virus to spread in order to get herd immunity then surely it makes sense to isolate those most at risk of dying.

Are we clear thst creating herd immunity is actually the policy? It seems like one of the boffins mentioned it but the people involved in making the model seem saying this is just an inevitable outcome, rather than the goal. Then a bunch of people who *support* the government seem to be jumping on it because it gives them a way to claim the delay and confusion was part of a cunning and brilliant expert plan, rather than the British getting knocked on their arses like everybody else without recent SARS experience.

Yes it is the government position. It was first mentioned by a member of the behavioural insight team, but has since been confirmed by the two big egg-heads leading this. It definitely isn't just a Cummings lacky speaking out of turn.

UK's chief scientific adviser tells ITV News he hopes Government's approach to coronavirus will create 'herd immunity'

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-13/uk-s-chief-scientific-adviser-tells-itv-news-he-hopes-government-s-approach-to-coronavirus-will-create-herd-immunity/

The term 'herd immunity' does indeed feature quite prominently in UKG's strategic communication.
No other countries' authorities have chosen to do so.

What the UK does, might still turn out to be the optimal approach, too early to tell.
But there seem to be people who feel that it is just a cravenly cynical euphemism for "we're at the end of our tether", on par with "WTO Brexit" or "Australian Deal style trade relations".

RobD

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.

bigjohnowls

Government trying to buy additional beds for NHS from private hospitals. Getting completely ripped off. Same with ventilators.

The closure of thousands of Acute Beds since 2010 is going to cost thousands of lives and the UK taxpayer dear.

NHS smallest number of Acute beds per 10000 population and reduced by 1/3 since 2010

geoffw

The Ides of March is nigh.

correction: are

kyf_100

FrancisUrquhart said:

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

Well people say that, lets see if we offer everybody a Chinese style surveillance app if they will accept it? That will keep us much safer and more secure.

Surveillance app? I reckon the government told people they were planning to put a microchip in all our bottoms to provide enhanced contact tracing most people would, quite literally, bend over for it.

I am unfortunately of the opinion that one outcome of this crisis will be that people will be much more accepting of government intrusion into all our lives.

I also worry that authoritarian governments around the world will prosper as people look to strongmen to "do something".

Legal protection for our human rights are more important today than ever.

RochdalePioneers

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Why? Currently they are flat out servicing demand of low margin products with unprecedented demand for home delivery which actually costs them money on every delivery. And when proper disruption comes? They will be able to partly function with greatly reduced demand. And afterwards? The era of cheap food sourced from afar will be over. And with a populace poorer than before unable to afford not cheap food in as much quantities...

rcs1000

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

It's a hierarchy of needs thing.

People want prosperity and security.

The environment most likely to be bring prosperity is one with a lot of personal freedom - to start businesses, to export and to import.

But this also means there is less security.

If you don't bring prosperity to your people when there are no existential threats, you're out on your arse.

And if you don't bring security when there are, you're skewered on a stake.

Black_Rook

Scott_xP said:

If we really are on a war footing, the other thing that needs to end is the invisible PM.

There should be daily press conferences, on the BBC.

Selectively briefing a few pet journalists who then 'debate' the news on Twitter is not helping, and the BBC boycott is beyond petty.

Does there really need to be a daily mass panic briefing at this stage?

If we're still meant to be keeping calm and carrying on (as best we can, anyway) they appearances by the head of Government morning, noon and night - preceded and followed by reams and reams of largely ill-informed "analysis," "debate" and "comment" in all forms of media, anti-social and otherwise - is surely the last thing on Earth than we need?

Better that Boris Johnson only appears to give an update when there is something significant to say, so that new messages - for example, when the order goes out to the elderly to self-isolate - attract appropriate attention. If he's droning on about bog roll supplies in Dorset or hospitalisations in Kettering every five bloody minutes then people will tune out, and his considerable value as a communicator of key information will be lost.

GideonWise

IshmaelZ said:

I note from Worldometer the number of serious/ critical Diamond Princess patients has fallen from 32 to 15. With 7 deaths the maximum possible fatality rate there is therefore down to 22/696 or 3.1%.

Pretty damn good considering the age mix. Set against that most of them have received care outside of a warzone environment.

MarqueeMark

Did any of our experts answer Cyclefree's question about whether oxygen concentrators are a useful tool to have around?

Benpointer

The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

IanB2

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.

Assuming normal stocking resumes, surely a lot of this food is going to be wasted. People will be having Corona parties to get through it all

IshmaelZ

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.

And the lowest margin stuff in the shop.

Black_Rook

RochdalePioneers said:

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Why? Currently they are flat out servicing demand of low margin products with unprecedented demand for home delivery which actually costs them money on every delivery. And when proper disruption comes? They will be able to partly function with greatly reduced demand. And afterwards? The era of cheap food sourced from afar will be over. And with a populace poorer than before unable to afford not cheap food in as much quantities...

Why would this episode have a long-term impact on the price of imported food? If anything it may very well get cheaper: imports from outside of the EU need no longer attract tariffs intended to price out cheaper global producers, to the advantage of southern and central European smallholders.

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see Carole Conspiracy has been deleting her more crazed tweets.

Any associated apologies?

It is good to see some journalists (who naturally aren't government fans) calling her out.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1238951263024435200

RobD

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.

Assuming normal stocking resumes, surely a lot of this food is going to be wasted. People will be having Corona parties to get through it all

If the food goes off after a few weeks people aren't panic buying properly.

Foxy

MarqueeMark said:

Did any of our experts answer Cyclefree's question about whether oxygen concentrators are a useful tool to have around?

From what I have read from Italy, CPAP is not good. It seems to aerosol the virus also.

Pure oxygen by mask or nasal prongs may well be beneficial. Limited supply though.

noneoftheabove

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.

Assuming normal stocking resumes, surely a lot of this food is going to be wasted. People will be having Corona parties to get through it all

Food banks will welcome any tinned stuff people dont need for the winter.

FrancisUrquhart

Benpointer said:

The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

I really would have hoped they had done this 2-3 weeks ago. Lets just hope they can get a load made before the bomb goes off. It is clear from that link, that Boris has now told them if you make it, we will buy it. Hopefully it is possible to ramp up production.

Time_to_Leave

Benpointer said:

The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

If you were a business that could, why wouldn’t you maximise production even without being told to? It’s pretty clear there’s a market for them. One would hope capacity is ramping up world wide. You have to really worry about the developing world though.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

TimT

rcs1000 said:

kyf_100 said:

HYUFD said:

Ms Cyclefree, could I suggest you save these very lengthy articles for July after coronavirus has peaked as they are not getting full attention at the moment

Isn't it interesting how we're barely two weeks into a crisis and with the dead only just in double digits, people are already begging for the government to clamp down on our freedoms, close our borders and restrict movement.

People don't really want freedom, they want security, and they want a strong government to give it to them.

It's a hierarchy of needs thing.

People want prosperity and security.

The environment most likely to be bring prosperity is one with a lot of personal freedom - to start businesses, to export and to import.

But this also means there is less security.

If you don't bring prosperity to your people when there are no existential threats, you're out on your arse.

And if you don't bring security when there are, you're skewered on a stake.

Also, as things change, the importance of each of the needs relative to each other changes. When you are affluent and secure, the physiological and safety needs no longer seem so important [but only because they have been met] and our conscious attention turns to belonging and love, esteem, and purpose greater than self, and so these seem to assume greater relative importance. Strip away safety from even the most affluent, and their attention refocuses back on it and away from the loftier needs.

GideonWise

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.

Assuming normal stocking resumes, surely a lot of this food is going to be wasted. People will be having Corona parties to get through it all

I doubt it. No one is stockpiling perishables.

Benpointer

IshmaelZ said:

I note from Worldometer the number of serious/ critical Diamond Princess patients has fallen from 32 to 15. With 7 deaths the maximum possible fatality rate there is therefore down to 22/696 or 3.1%.

You are assuming none of the 233 active cases become critical and lead to fatalities. I am not sure that's necessarily a safe assumption.

rottenborough

Not sure why the rest of the world is so against UK trying. what in their minds is a massive experiment in all this.

They might learn something.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

I really would have hoped they had done this 2-3 weeks ago. Lets just hope they can get a load made before the bomb goes off. It is clear from that link, that Boris has now told them if you make it, we will buy it. Hopefully it is possible to ramp up production.

If they are sensible the emergency powers bill will have a provision for nationalisation. If they try to price gouge, they can simply be nationalised at a price of the government's choosing.

Black_Rook

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well, while every major sports league in the world shut down, cage fighting is still on.

And snooker.

rottenborough

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Whereas everywhere else is banking the virus doesn't come in waves.

RobD

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Is this another mathematics lecturer thinking he knows best?

RobD

rottenborough said:

Not sure why the rest of the world is so against UK trying. what in their minds is a massive experiment in all this.

They might learn something.

Perhaps because their strategy relies on the virus being completely eradicated?

Alistair

I see that The Big Liz won the conversation

https://twitter.com/MollyNagle3/status/1238881953534918662?s=19

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Nobody is confident there is a vaccine coming in the next 18 months and we aren't the only ones convinced there will be multiple waves, China are operating under this working theory (hence the tracking apps, the building of capacity, etc).

The big risk for me is we don't have best practice how to treat people and it is possible that some existing drugs are highly effective...we will have a better idea of that in a few months. And obviously crashing the system.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1238952705315528706/photo/1

No, it really wont.

Benpointer

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

I really would have hoped they had done this 2-3 weeks ago. Lets just hope they can get a load made before the bomb goes off. It is clear from that link, that Boris has now told them if you make it, we will buy it. Hopefully it is possible to ramp up production.

Not yet - the call is not until Monday. Although why we have to wait until after a weekend stumps me.

geoffw

GideonWise said:

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.

Assuming normal stocking resumes, surely a lot of this food is going to be wasted. People will be having Corona parties to get through it all

I doubt it. No one is stockpiling perishables.

Yebbut plenty of "best befores" will not be met.

Alistair

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Oh shit, if Taleb is against it then I must reluctantly fully endorse the government's plan without reservation.

I will never get the time back from reading the opening sections of the Black Swan. Never.

RobD

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

I really would have hoped they had done this 2-3 weeks ago. Lets just hope they can get a load made before the bomb goes off. It is clear from that link, that Boris has now told them if you make it, we will buy it. Hopefully it is possible to ramp up production.

Not yet - the call is not until Monday. Although why we have to wait until after a weekend stumps me.

It makes zero sense for manufacturers to not have already started.

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Nobody is confident there is a vaccine coming in the next 18 months and we aren't the only ones convinced there will be multiple waves, China are operating under this working theory (hence the tracking apps, the building of capacity, etc).

The big risk for me is we don't have best practice and it is possible that some existing drugs are highly effective...we will have a better idea of that in a few months.

Yep. Until proved otherwise I don't see why we don't assume waves. 1918-1919.

Any reason why the 'Spanish' flu was different?

GideonWise

Is there a whole battery of people smashing the German strategy or the Irish strategy or the French?

It does feel a bit like the Eurovisions whereby no matter what is done objectively there will be people telling us we are wrong and shit.

Alistair

rottenborough said:

Not sure why the rest of the world is so against UK trying. what in their minds is a massive experiment in all this.

They might learn something.

The risk is the UK becomes a Corona reservoir undoing their effort to eradicate.

FrancisUrquhart

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

I really would have hoped they had done this 2-3 weeks ago. Lets just hope they can get a load made before the bomb goes off. It is clear from that link, that Boris has now told them if you make it, we will buy it. Hopefully it is possible to ramp up production.

Not yet - the call is not until Monday. Although why we have to wait until after a weekend stumps me.

If they have leaked this to the press, my guess is they have already been given the nod by officials to get cracking...it is simply signing it off with a chat from the PM and the requirement for a new bill in parliament on Monday.

rottenborough

Alistair said:

I see that The Big Liz won the conversation

https://twitter.com/MollyNagle3/status/1238881953534918662?s=19

Veep?

Barnesian

All French ski resorts have just been closed. Not a surprise.

A full refund will be given in the form of a credit against a holiday next year.

RobD

GideonWise said:

Is there a whole battery of people smashing the German strategy or the Irish strategy or the French?

It does feel a bit like the Eurovisions whereby no matter what is done objectively there will be people telling us we are wrong and shit.

I think the correct response is: bugger them

(a stronger word is available, if you prefer).

alex_

rottenborough said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Whereas everywhere else is banking the virus doesn't come in waves.

Also the British approach has at it’s core the assumption that Hospitals WILL be overwhelmed. In winter.

rottenborough

RobD said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Is this another mathematics lecturer thinking he knows best?

I find it odd, as he was the populariser of the idea of Black Swans coming out of nowhere and fucking up your long tails.

TimT

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Nobody is confident there is a vaccine coming in the next 18 months and we aren't the only ones convinced there will be multiple waves, China are operating under this working theory (hence the tracking apps, the building of capacity, etc).

The big risk for me is we don't have best practice how to treat people and it is possible that some existing drugs are highly effective...we will have a better idea of that in a few months. And obviously crashing the system.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is nothing if not supremely confident in his own views, always.

tlg86

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1238952705315528706/photo/1

No, it really wont.

It might go ahead, just with only Japan, South Korea and China competing.

Cyclefree

I have just learnt that my aunt, 75, in Livorno developed a fever and a cough yesterday. My cousin told me that she feels “ really quite scared”.

I just feel helpless.

FrancisUrquhart

Its ok, we are all saved...

Twitter has created a new emoji to encourage handwashing during the coronavirus outbreak.

IshmaelZ

Benpointer said:

IshmaelZ said:

I note from Worldometer the number of serious/ critical Diamond Princess patients has fallen from 32 to 15. With 7 deaths the maximum possible fatality rate there is therefore down to 22/696 or 3.1%.

You are assuming none of the 233 active cases become critical and lead to fatalities. I am not sure that's necessarily a safe assumption.

True. But it gets safer as time goes by,

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Silly man. "Assumes no vaccine is coming" is like complaining a household budget assumes no lottery win.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Its ok, we are all saved...

Twitter has created a new emoji to encourage handwashing during the coronavirus outbreak.

nudging

FrancisUrquhart

To be fair, Taleb is a bit more qualified to offer an opinion than the MSc student in the letter to the government....

Chameleon

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

Not sure why the rest of the world is so against UK trying. what in their minds is a massive experiment in all this.

They might learn something.

The risk is the UK becomes a Corona reservoir undoing their effort to eradicate.

Not sure why they're worried about us when there's a bigger bomb a mere 6.5 times bigger than us.

geoffw

Barnesian said:

All French ski resorts have just been closed. Not a surprise.

A full refund will be given in the form of a credit against a holiday next year.

An actuarial gain for the resorts.

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

You’d think supermarket shares ought to be going up, with this bumper volume of sales.

Displaced sales, rather than new sales. Who knows what life is going to be like in 4 weeks. We might all be under curfew and only allowed to go shopping once a week.

Assuming normal stocking resumes, surely a lot of this food is going to be wasted. People will be having Corona parties to get through it all

If the food goes off after a few weeks people aren't panic buying properly.

Presumably they know how to cook toilet roll properly?

glw

rottenborough said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Whereas everywhere else is banking the virus doesn't come in waves.

It does genuinely seem to come down to most of the world planning on repeatedly snuffing-out outbreaks until treatments or vaccines arrive. An optimisists approach if you like. Versus the UK, and perhaps a couple of other countries, taking a pessimistic approach of controling an outbreak and gaining some degree of immunity for future outbreaks in order to lessen their effects. This approach be chosen on the assumption we can't reapeatedly lockdown everything and rely on a vaccine being developed soon.

You can see why the optimists get such widespread public support, but I don't think there's any reason to assume at this stage that anybody knows the right thing to do.

FrancisUrquhart

What Bill Gates is afraid of (from 5 years ago)...

I rate the chance of a wide spread epidemic worse than Ebola in my life time at over 50%....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AEMKudv5p0

Benpointer

Cyclefree said:

I have just learnt that my aunt, 75, in Livorno developed a fever and a cough yesterday. My cousin told me that she feels “ really quite scared”.

I just feel helpless.

Really sorry to hear that @Cyclefree. Fingers-crossed that she recovers quickly.

Black_Rook

GideonWise said:

Is there a whole battery of people smashing the German strategy or the Irish strategy or the French?

It does feel a bit like the Eurovisions whereby no matter what is done objectively there will be people telling us we are wrong and shit.

Oh crikey, the Eurovision Song Contest - that's going to be another casualty of the plague.

Clouds, silver linings, and all that.

Foxy

rottenborough said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Whereas everywhere else is banking the virus doesn't come in waves.

No, just planning to be better prepared next time. ICU capacity, staff training, protective equipment, pharmaceuticals, research, treatment protocols, rapid diagnostic testing. Perhaps even effective antiviral and/or vaccines.

glw

Benpointer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Benpointer said:

The Guardian live blog has an update on government efforts to boost ventilator production. Sounds like manufacturers are already working on this, as you'd hope.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

I really would have hoped they had done this 2-3 weeks ago. Lets just hope they can get a load made before the bomb goes off. It is clear from that link, that Boris has now told them if you make it, we will buy it. Hopefully it is possible to ramp up production.

Not yet - the call is not until Monday. Although why we have to wait until after a weekend stumps me.

Monday is probably making official what is already happening. Just as the last Monday Cobra meeting was really the culmination of a huge amount of work that began in January.

FrancisUrquhart

glw said:

rottenborough said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294

Whereas everywhere else is banking the virus doesn't come in waves.

It does genuinely seem to come down to most of the world planning on repeatedly snuffing-out outbreaks until treatments or vaccines arrive. An optimisists approach if you like. Versus the UK, and perhaps a couple of other countries, taking a pessimistic approach of controling an outbreak and gaining some degree of immunity for future outbreaks in order to lessen their effects. This approach be chosen on the assumption we can't reapeatedly lockdown everything and rely on a vaccine being developed soon.

You can see why the optimists get such widespread public support, but I don't think there's any reason to assume at this stage that anybody knows the right thing to do.

I am not sure the UK is quite as isolated in this decision as being made out, it is simply the UK government have been totally honest what it means e.g. Merkel talked about 70% of people getting it...that clearly isn't compatible with a strategy to hide for 3 months and think it will have gone away.

RobD

Benpointer said:

Cyclefree said:

I have just learnt that my aunt, 75, in Livorno developed a fever and a cough yesterday. My cousin told me that she feels “ really quite scared”.

I just feel helpless.

Really sorry to hear that @Cyclefree. Fingers-crossed that she recovers quickly.

Seconded. All the best to your aunt and you.

Benpointer

Barnesian said:

All French ski resorts have just been closed. Not a surprise.

A full refund will be given in the form of a credit against a holiday next year.

Surely they have to give you your money back (not a credit) if they can't fulfill their part of the contract?