Time for the West to stand up to the Chinese Communist government
It is time for the West to stand up to all authoritarian governments, but we don't need to embrace conspiracy theories to do it. Tobias Ellwood is revealing himself as an idiot.
You know for certain it’s not linked to a bio weapon?
Given how outlandish that claim is, I think the onus is on those who are suggesting it to provide some evidence.
Had an interesting chat with guy doing maintenance on the London Tube yesterday (parked up in the van outside waiting for shutdown).
Apparently, there are teams of vital workers in various industries - rail, power, water already in lockdown. They are being paid 24/7 to camp in remote(ish) industrial/maintenance facilities out of contact with anyone. Apparently, the idea is that even if everyone else come down with the lurgy, they can keep things going.
The chap in question was rather keen on getting in on the next round - the idea is that after x months in isolation, a replacement team will be setup, wait a bit to make sure none are sick and then then first team comes.. out??
The reason he was keen was the full hourly rate 24/7.... Didn't ask his hourly rate, but got to be something north of £50...
Given this plan isn't something they came up with on the back of a fag packet last week and has been in development for 2+ months, I am sure there are lots of things like this going on.
If it manages to keep the system / society going, we just have to hope.
Sainsburys in Keighley didn't have a single bog roll on the shelves this morning. And only a few packets of more expensive pasta. Woman on the checkout said they'd been busy since 8am. Organic avocados were readily available however.
Then passing the local Post Office on the way home a chap was just leaving carrying a 4-pack of bog roll. Shop local for a clean bum.
I'm glad you're happy to be corrected - good to see a poster downthread has done just that.
There is no threshold on posts to 'have an opinion', but it is quite unusual to express it at length in very decided terms when you're new to posting. Unfortunately, on PB, some of our less hinged members are on their 4th or 5th username, having been banned for one reason or another, and at least one member has several going all at once. It is not at all unlikely that this person would launch yet another persona to support his own views on what has become quite a heated debate here. So forgive me for being suspicious.
Well I have no other usernames and I am just very worried about this virus as we're having a baby next month which apparently is when the government plans for the peak number of infections to be. My partner is already in hospital so she is likely to catch this with current policy. None of the staff are wearing masks currently.
I even wrote this in my first post:
"Also I admit I do not completely understand it, so perhaps I am hopeful that I have missed something in my reasoning and the government plan actually makes some sense."
As for the virus helping to give immunity to all strains, why don't we wait for a less nasty version of the virus to build up herd immunity?
What a disappointment. With no Premier League football today I thought the next best thing was to be part of the panic buyers at my local Waitrose. Well there were only 3/4 other shoppers and almost all the shelves were full. What's happening to this country?
Morrison’s in Burntwood was the opposite. I went in at 8 to beat the panic buyers. Car park was full and the shelves were half empty. All Fray Bentos pies and most tinned fish had vanished. Two packets of yeast left. Hardly any soap. Bloody hoarders had barely left enough for me to fill two shopping trollies to meet my own simple needs.
Sainsbury's today -- no tissues, toilet rolls or kitchen rolls. No soap. No frozen fish. Not much paracetamol and no aspirin or ibuprofen. No Coke. Probably around twice as many shoppers as last Saturday. ETA no Dettol.
Allegedly several members of the cabinet bagged all the coke.
Time for the West to stand up to the Chinese Communist government
It is time for the West to stand up to all authoritarian governments, but we don't need to embrace conspiracy theories to do it. Tobias Ellwood is revealing himself as an idiot.
You know for certain it’s not linked to a bio weapon?
Given how outlandish that claim is, I think the onus is on those who are suggesting it to provide some evidence.
😃. The US haven’t even admitted to giving its people Lime Disease
I'm glad you're happy to be corrected - good to see a poster downthread has done just that.
There is no threshold on posts to 'have an opinion', but it is quite unusual to express it at length in very decided terms when you're new to posting. Unfortunately, on PB, some of our less hinged members are on their 4th or 5th username, having been banned for one reason or another, and at least one member has several going all at once. It is not at all unlikely that this person would launch yet another persona to support his own views on what has become quite a heated debate here. So forgive me for being suspicious.
Well I have no other usernames and I am just very worried about this virus as we're having a baby next month which apparently is when the government plans for the peak number of infections to be. My partner is already in hospital so she is likely to catch this with current policy. None of the staff are wearing masks currently.
I even wrote this in my first post:
"Also I admit I do not completely understand it, so perhaps I am hopeful that I have missed something in my reasoning and the government plan actually makes some sense."
As for the virus helping to give immunity to all strains, why don't we wait for a less nasty version of the virus to build up herd immunity?
A warm welcome to you, and best wishes for your forthcoming arrival.
First post, long-time lurker, not a banned revenant,.
Just wanted to note that while the budget was unusual in handing out the pre-election bungs three years early, the herd immunity strategy front-loads as much death as possible into the optimum point in the electoral cycle, which is impressively Dom.
November is a long way away so I'm taking this with a pinch of salt. All sorts of things could happen before then, not least of which could be the worst of the infection passes over America and then Trump passes an emergency stimulus and lifts restrictions just in time.
Also, we had a Herdson article just a few weeks ago tipping buying Sanders when he was odds on - and we know what happened next.
Things that look inevitable one week can look very different the next.
With respect, I didn't say it was inevitable and I did say that the White House bet was the better value, because "Trump’s typically self-centred and quite possibly grossly inadequate reaction to the coronavirus outbreak, should now be favourite in a head-to-head with Trump, the president’s skill at negative campaigning notwithstanding".
The Sanders call was the wrong one but it's the first wrong one I've made in a long time; I hope I can be forgiven that and the previous record taken into account?
I did, however, foresee where Covid-19 was going in the US, and what that would mean for Trump politically, and for the US economy.
I didn't say you said it was inevitable - just that it can look that way.
My point is that the dislike of Trump is so strong it can cloud our judgement.
I think what @SouthamObserver said earlier is fair. The culture wars in the US are so embedded that I can't see his base deserting even if casualties are in the low millions.
They'll blame someone else.
That doesn't mean he'll win but I could still see it being a close fight.
That's all true. But pre-Covid-19, I was tipping Trump to be re-elected so I don't think I was too clouded by a dislike of the man (which I do have).
What I was misled by was a particularly poor campaign event by Biden where he just seemed done in. That, combined with deteriorating polling and fundraising (and the early voting for Super Tuesday, much of which would be in pre-SC), made me think that he wouldn't recover his situation. I also thought that the candidates in for SC would see it through to ST, only a few days later, having invested what they had in it.
Like I say, you can't get them all right.
You still haven't got it wrong yet. Although Trump is doing a sterling job of ensuring he isn't re-elected.
Harold Wilson's old adage about a week being a long time in politics has been superseded by an hour being a long time in politics.
Well, I'm tipping Trump to lose now so I won't take any credit for the earlier prediction if it does turn out to be right.
I trust your judgement. If your new projection is accurate, the world will become a safer place.
No, you should always do your own research and come to your own view.
Those can be informed by others, but you shouldn't automatically adopt their conclusions. Particularly since your second sentence shows the sympathies around which a risk of confirmation bias could be based.
With all due respect I am reasonably well versed. Mr Herdson's track record is impressive and I take his predictions seriously.
November is a long way away so I'm taking this with a pinch of salt. All sorts of things could happen before then, not least of which could be the worst of the infection passes over America and then Trump passes an emergency stimulus and lifts restrictions just in time.
Also, we had a Herdson article just a few weeks ago tipping buying Sanders when he was odds on - and we know what happened next.
Things that look inevitable one week can look very different the next.
With respect, I didn't say it was inevitable and I did say that the White House bet was the better value, because "Trump’s typically self-centred and quite possibly grossly inadequate reaction to the coronavirus outbreak, should now be favourite in a head-to-head with Trump, the president’s skill at negative campaigning notwithstanding".
The Sanders call was the wrong one but it's the first wrong one I've made in a long time; I hope I can be forgiven that and the previous record taken into account?
I did, however, foresee where Covid-19 was going in the US, and what that would mean for Trump politically, and for the US economy.
I didn't say you said it was inevitable - just that it can look that way.
My point is that the dislike of Trump is so strong it can cloud our judgement.
I think what @SouthamObserver said earlier is fair. The culture wars in the US are so embedded that I can't see his base deserting even if casualties are in the low millions.
They'll blame someone else.
That doesn't mean he'll win but I could still see it being a close fight.
That's all true. But pre-Covid-19, I was tipping Trump to be re-elected so I don't think I was too clouded by a dislike of the man (which I do have).
What I was misled by was a particularly poor campaign event by Biden where he just seemed done in. That, combined with deteriorating polling and fundraising (and the early voting for Super Tuesday, much of which would be in pre-SC), made me think that he wouldn't recover his situation. I also thought that the candidates in for SC would see it through to ST, only a few days later, having invested what they had in it.
Like I say, you can't get them all right.
You still haven't got it wrong yet. Although Trump is doing a sterling job of ensuring he isn't re-elected.
Harold Wilson's old adage about a week being a long time in politics has been superseded by an hour being a long time in politics.
Well, I'm tipping Trump to lose now so I won't take any credit for the earlier prediction if it does turn out to be right.
I trust your judgement. If your new projection is accurate, the world will become a safer place.
No, you should always do your own research and come to your own view.
Those can be informed by others, but you shouldn't automatically adopt their conclusions. Particularly since your second sentence shows the sympathies around which a risk of confirmation bias could be based.
With all due respect I am reasonably well versed. Mr Herdson's track record is impressive and I take his predictions seriously.
The Spanish government is to put the country under lockdown as part of its state of emergency measures meant to combat the coronavirus, several media including El Mundo and Cadena Ser have reported.
The government is expected to say that all Spaniards must stay home except to buy food or drugs, go to the hospital, go to work or other emergencies, El Mundo said.
So not really a lockdown.
But technically I can’t walk along the prom, what if you have a dog?
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
Countries with the potential for isolation and control, like NZ and Israel, might have the option to pull up the drawbridge and wait until the epidemic has subsided elsewhere, or mutated, or been cured by vaccine. But it’s going to be a long wait. Open countries like the UK never had that option in the first place.
First post, long-time lurker, not a banned revenant,.
Just wanted to note that while the budget was unusual in handing out the pre-election bungs three years early, the herd immunity strategy front-loads as much death as possible into the optimum point in the electoral cycle, which is impressively Dom.
Had an interesting chat with guy doing maintenance on the London Tube yesterday (parked up in the van outside waiting for shutdown).
Apparently, there are teams of vital workers in various industries - rail, power, water already in lockdown. They are being paid 24/7 to camp in remote(ish) industrial/maintenance facilities out of contact with anyone. Apparently, the idea is that even if everyone else come down with the lurgy, they can keep things going.
The chap in question was rather keen on getting in on the next round - the idea is that after x months in isolation, a replacement team will be setup, wait a bit to make sure none are sick and then then first team comes.. out??
The reason he was keen was the full hourly rate 24/7.... Didn't ask his hourly rate, but got to be something north of £50...
Prematurely infecting them and then quarantining would make more sense. Then you don’t have to worry your subs are going to be neutralised three days after they emerge.
On a completely unrelated note; where did Boris disappear to for two weeks?
Sainsburys in Keighley didn't have a single bog roll on the shelves this morning. And only a few packets of more expensive pasta. Woman on the checkout said they'd been busy since 8am. Organic avocados were readily available however.
Then passing the local Post Office on the way home a chap was just leaving carrying a 4-pack of bog roll. Shop local for a clean bum.
Sainsburys in Keighley didn't have a single bog roll on the shelves this morning. And only a few packets of more expensive pasta. Woman on the checkout said they'd been busy since 8am. Organic avocados were readily available however.
Then passing the local Post Office on the way home a chap was just leaving carrying a 4-pack of bog roll. Shop local for a clean bum.
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
Countries with the potential for isolation and control, like NZ and Israel, might have the option to pull up the drawbridge and wait until the epidemic has subsided elsewhere, or mutated, or been cured by vaccine. But it’s going to be a long wait. Open countries like the UK never had that option in the first place.
New Zealand also has the advantage on the food front that is can be pretty self sufficient. Given its neighbours, I presume Israel is as well.
The Spanish government have drafted a decree to put the country into lockdown, according to reports in the Spanish media.
This is like Italy, they are leaking the lockdown before it occurs.
Not quite correct. It is already the case in the costas here - simply being extended to the whole country. The change in the last 24 hours has been dramatic. The mass movement of thousands of Madrilenos to the costas has triggered this. There is huge anger at them where I live and I suspect this could turn on the government as it was the decision to close universities and schools which precipitated the problem.
Had an interesting chat with guy doing maintenance on the London Tube yesterday (parked up in the van outside waiting for shutdown).
Apparently, there are teams of vital workers in various industries - rail, power, water already in lockdown. They are being paid 24/7 to camp in remote(ish) industrial/maintenance facilities out of contact with anyone. Apparently, the idea is that even if everyone else come down with the lurgy, they can keep things going.
The chap in question was rather keen on getting in on the next round - the idea is that after x months in isolation, a replacement team will be setup, wait a bit to make sure none are sick and then then first team comes.. out??
The reason he was keen was the full hourly rate 24/7.... Didn't ask his hourly rate, but got to be something north of £50...
Prematurely infecting them and then quarantining would make more sense. Then you don’t have to worry your subs are going to be neutralised three days after they emerge.
On a completely unrelated note; where did Boris disappear to for two weeks?
You mean before he announced child number 5 or 6 or 7 is on the way? Given we know the egg-heads have been working on this since the start of January, perhaps he was rather busy with that?
November is a long way away so I'm taking this with a pinch of salt. All sorts of things could happen before then, not least of which could be the worst of the infection passes over America and then Trump passes an emergency stimulus and lifts restrictions just in time.
Also, we had a Herdson article just a few weeks ago tipping buying Sanders when he was odds on - and we know what happened next.
Things that look inevitable one week can look very different the next.
With respect, I didn't say it was inevitable and I did say that the White House bet was the better value, because "Trump’s typically self-centred and quite possibly grossly inadequate reaction to the coronavirus outbreak, should now be favourite in a head-to-head with Trump, the president’s skill at negative campaigning notwithstanding".
The Sanders call was the wrong one but it's the first wrong one I've made in a long time; I hope I can be forgiven that and the previous record taken into account?
I did, however, foresee where Covid-19 was going in the US, and what that would mean for Trump politically, and for the US economy.
I didn't say you said it was inevitable - just that it can look that way.
My point is that the dislike of Trump is so strong it can cloud our judgement.
I think what @SouthamObserver said earlier is fair. The culture wars in the US are so embedded that I can't see his base deserting even if casualties are in the low millions.
They'll blame someone else.
That doesn't mean he'll win but I could still see it being a close fight.
That's all true. But pre-Covid-19, I was tipping Trump to be re-elected so I don't think I was too clouded by a dislike of the man (which I do have).
What I was misled by was a particularly poor campaign event by Biden where he just seemed done in. That, combined with deteriorating polling and fundraising (and the early voting for Super Tuesday, much of which would be in pre-SC), made me think that he wouldn't recover his situation. I also thought that the candidates in for SC would see it through to ST, only a few days later, having invested what they had in it.
Like I say, you can't get them all right.
You still haven't got it wrong yet. Although Trump is doing a sterling job of ensuring he isn't re-elected.
Harold Wilson's old adage about a week being a long time in politics has been superseded by an hour being a long time in politics.
Well, I'm tipping Trump to lose now so I won't take any credit for the earlier prediction if it does turn out to be right.
I trust your judgement. If your new projection is accurate, the world will become a safer place.
No, you should always do your own research and come to your own view.
Those can be informed by others, but you shouldn't automatically adopt their conclusions. Particularly since your second sentence shows the sympathies around which a risk of confirmation bias could be based.
With all due respect I am reasonably well versed. Mr Herdson's track record is impressive and I take his predictions seriously.
nutjob
Thanks
Welcome, I have a bridge that Herdson said was lovely, want to buy it.
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
Countries with the potential for isolation and control, like NZ and Israel, might have the option to pull up the drawbridge and wait until the epidemic has subsided elsewhere, or mutated, or been cured by vaccine. But it’s going to be a long wait. Open countries like the UK never had that option in the first place.
New Zealand also has the advantage on the food front that is can be pretty self sufficient. Given its neighbours, I presume Israel is as well.
Depends somewhat on how much water they have at any given moment.
November is a long way away so I'm taking this with a pinch of salt. All sorts of things could happen before then, not least of which could be the worst of the infection passes over America and then Trump passes an emergency stimulus and lifts restrictions just in time.
Also, we had a Herdson article just a few weeks ago tipping buying Sanders when he was odds on - and we know what happened next.
Things that look inevitable one week can look very different the next.
With respect, I didn't say it was inevitable and I did say that the White House bet was the better value, because "Trump’s typically self-centred and quite possibly grossly inadequate reaction to the coronavirus outbreak, should now be favourite in a head-to-head with Trump, the president’s skill at negative campaigning notwithstanding".
The Sanders call was the wrong one but it's the first wrong one I've made in a long time; I hope I can be forgiven that and the previous record taken into account?
I did, however, foresee where Covid-19 was going in the US, and what that would mean for Trump politically, and for the US economy.
I didn't say you said it was inevitable - just that it can look that way.
My point is that the dislike of Trump is so strong it can cloud our judgement.
I think what @SouthamObserver said earlier is fair. The culture wars in the US are so embedded that I can't see his base deserting even if casualties are in the low millions.
They'll blame someone else.
That doesn't mean he'll win but I could still see it being a close fight.
That's all true. But pre-Covid-19, I was tipping Trump to be re-elected so I don't think I was too clouded by a dislike of the man (which I do have).
What I was misled by was a particularly poor campaign event by Biden where he just seemed done in. That, combined with deteriorating polling and fundraising (and the early voting for Super Tuesday, much of which would be in pre-SC), made me think that he wouldn't recover his situation. I also thought that the candidates in for SC would see it through to ST, only a few days later, having invested what they had in it.
Like I say, you can't get them all right.
You still haven't got it wrong yet. Although Trump is doing a sterling job of ensuring he isn't re-elected.
Harold Wilson's old adage about a week being a long time in politics has been superseded by an hour being a long time in politics.
Well, I'm tipping Trump to lose now so I won't take any credit for the earlier prediction if it does turn out to be right.
I trust your judgement. If your new projection is accurate, the world will become a safer place.
No, you should always do your own research and come to your own view.
Those can be informed by others, but you shouldn't automatically adopt their conclusions. Particularly since your second sentence shows the sympathies around which a risk of confirmation bias could be based.
With all due respect I am reasonably well versed. Mr Herdson's track record is impressive and I take his predictions seriously.
nutjob
Thanks
Welcome, I have a bridge that Herdson said was lovely, want to buy it.
I'm sure you make the finest and loveliest bridges known to man in Scotland, but your poets have rather undermined you.
November is a long way away so I'm taking this with a pinch of salt. All sorts of things could happen before then, not least of which could be the worst of the infection passes over America and then Trump passes an emergency stimulus and lifts restrictions just in time.
Also, we had a Herdson article just a few weeks ago tipping buying Sanders when he was odds on - and we know what happened next.
Things that look inevitable one week can look very different the next.
With respect, I didn't say it was inevitable and I did say that the White House bet was the better value, because "Trump’s typically self-centred and quite possibly grossly inadequate reaction to the coronavirus outbreak, should now be favourite in a head-to-head with Trump, the president’s skill at negative campaigning notwithstanding".
The Sanders call was the wrong one but it's the first wrong one I've made in a long time; I hope I can be forgiven that and the previous record taken into account?
I did, however, foresee where Covid-19 was going in the US, and what that would mean for Trump politically, and for the US economy.
I didn't say you said it was inevitable - just that it can look that way.
My point is that the dislike of Trump is so strong it can cloud our judgement.
I think what @SouthamObserver said earlier is fair. The culture wars in the US are so embedded that I can't see his base deserting even if casualties are in the low millions.
They'll blame someone else.
That doesn't mean he'll win but I could still see it being a close fight.
That's all true. But pre-Covid-19, I was tipping Trump to be re-elected so I don't think I was too clouded by a dislike of the man (which I do have).
What I was misled by was a particularly poor campaign event by Biden where he just seemed done in. That, combined with deteriorating polling and fundraising (and the early voting for Super Tuesday, much of which would be in pre-SC), made me think that he wouldn't recover his situation. I also thought that the candidates in for SC would see it through to ST, only a few days later, having invested what they had in it.
Like I say, you can't get them all right.
You still haven't got it wrong yet. Although Trump is doing a sterling job of ensuring he isn't re-elected.
Harold Wilson's old adage about a week being a long time in politics has been superseded by an hour being a long time in politics.
Well, I'm tipping Trump to lose now so I won't take any credit for the earlier prediction if it does turn out to be right.
I trust your judgement. If your new projection is accurate, the world will become a safer place.
No, you should always do your own research and come to your own view.
Those can be informed by others, but you shouldn't automatically adopt their conclusions. Particularly since your second sentence shows the sympathies around which a risk of confirmation bias could be based.
With all due respect I am reasonably well versed. Mr Herdson's track record is impressive and I take his predictions seriously.
nutjob
Thanks
Welcome, I have a bridge that Herdson said was lovely, want to buy it.
Is it the really nice one between Scotland and Northern Ireland?
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
Countries with the potential for isolation and control, like NZ and Israel, might have the option to pull up the drawbridge and wait until the epidemic has subsided elsewhere, or mutated, or been cured by vaccine. But it’s going to be a long wait. Open countries like the UK never had that option in the first place.
New Zealand also has the advantage on the food front that is can be pretty self sufficient. Given its neighbours, I presume Israel is as well.
Depends somewhat on how much water they have at any given moment.
Well they coming into Autumn, so I presume plenty of the wet stuff on the way.
The Spanish government have drafted a decree to put the country into lockdown, according to reports in the Spanish media.
This is like Italy, they are leaking the lockdown before it occurs.
Not quite correct. It is already the case in the costas here - simply being extended to the whole country. The change in the last 24 hours has been dramatic. The mass movement of thousands of Madrilenos to the costas has triggered this. There is huge anger at them where I live and I suspect this could turn on the government as it was the decision to close universities and schools which precipitated the problem.
Perhaps the Spanish government needs some behavioural psychologists.
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
Countries with the potential for isolation and control, like NZ and Israel, might have the option to pull up the drawbridge and wait until the epidemic has subsided elsewhere, or mutated, or been cured by vaccine. But it’s going to be a long wait. Open countries like the UK never had that option in the first place.
New Zealand also has the advantage on the food front that is can be pretty self sufficient. Given its neighbours, I presume Israel is as well.
Depends somewhat on how much water they have at any given moment.
Well they coming into Autumn, so I presume plenty of the wet stuff on the way.
No they’re not. Israel’s in the Northern Hemisphere.
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
Countries with the potential for isolation and control, like NZ and Israel, might have the option to pull up the drawbridge and wait until the epidemic has subsided elsewhere, or mutated, or been cured by vaccine. But it’s going to be a long wait. Open countries like the UK never had that option in the first place.
New Zealand also has the advantage on the food front that is can be pretty self sufficient. Given its neighbours, I presume Israel is as well.
Depends somewhat on how much water they have at any given moment.
Well they coming into Autumn, so I presume plenty of the wet stuff on the way.
No they’re not. Israel’s in the Northern Hemisphere.
No, I was talking about New Zealand. Or are we at crossed wires.
Time for the West to stand up to the Chinese Communist government
It is time for the West to stand up to all authoritarian governments, but we don't need to embrace conspiracy theories to do it. Tobias Ellwood is revealing himself as an idiot.
Perhaps its time for the West to find some cohesive values it believes in itself before trying to influence other countries to change. There are elements of authoritarianism at the centre of many western governments including ours, the US and in the EU as well. Trying to influence others when deeply divided internally is unlikely to make much progress.
I am the first to criticize authoritarian leanings at home but to pretend these are anywhere comparable to the level of government abuse in China, Russia etc. Is just ridiculous.
I made no suggestion they are comparable, or our govts are worse than China, Russia, they clearly are not.
I am saying the west is in no position to push ideology elsewhere when it is divided itself and its own political system is broken. Because it just wont work.
November is a long way away so I'm taking this with a pinch of salt. All sorts of things could happen before then, not least of which could be the worst of the infection passes over America and then Trump passes an emergency stimulus and lifts restrictions just in time.
Also, we had a Herdson article just a few weeks ago tipping buying Sanders when he was odds on - and we know what happened next.
Things that look inevitable one week can look very different the next.
With respect, I didn't say it was inevitable and I did say that the White House bet was the better value, because "Trump’s typically self-centred and quite possibly grossly inadequate reaction to the coronavirus outbreak, should now be favourite in a head-to-head with Trump, the president’s skill at negative campaigning notwithstanding".
The Sanders call was the wrong one but it's the first wrong one I've made in a long time; I hope I can be forgiven that and the previous record taken into account?
I did, however, foresee where Covid-19 was going in the US, and what that would mean for Trump politically, and for the US economy.
I didn't say you said it was inevitable - just that it can look that way.
My point is that the dislike of Trump is so strong it can cloud our judgement.
I think what @SouthamObserver said earlier is fair. The culture wars in the US are so embedded that I can't see his base deserting even if casualties are in the low millions.
They'll blame someone else.
That doesn't mean he'll win but I could still see it being a close fight.
That's all true. But pre-Covid-19, I was tipping Trump to be re-elected so I don't think I was too clouded by a dislike of the man (which I do have).
What I was misled by was a particularly poor campaign event by Biden where he just seemed done in. That, combined with deteriorating polling and fundraising (and the early voting for Super Tuesday, much of which would be in pre-SC), made me think that he wouldn't recover his situation. I also thought that the candidates in for SC would see it through to ST, only a few days later, having invested what they had in it.
Like I say, you can't get them all right.
You still haven't got it wrong yet. Although Trump is doing a sterling job of ensuring he isn't re-elected.
Harold Wilson's old adage about a week being a long time in politics has been superseded by an hour being a long time in politics.
Well, I'm tipping Trump to lose now so I won't take any credit for the earlier prediction if it does turn out to be right.
I trust your judgement. If your new projection is accurate, the world will become a safer place.
No, you should always do your own research and come to your own view.
Those can be informed by others, but you shouldn't automatically adopt their conclusions. Particularly since your second sentence shows the sympathies around which a risk of confirmation bias could be based.
With all due respect I am reasonably well versed. Mr Herdson's track record is impressive and I take his predictions seriously.
nutjob
Thanks
Welcome, I have a bridge that Herdson said was lovely, want to buy it.
Is it the really nice one between Scotland and Northern Ireland?
Boris has a fantasy about bridges, I cannot imagine anyone could be stupid enough to buy that one.
On a lighter note, just looked in a couple of cupboards and turns out I've been stockpiling loo roll for months. Didn't even realise it was happening. Got about six months supply!
Quilted?
Triple sheet
18 months if you can peel them apart
Attitudes like yours will stand you in good stead come the apocalypse, good luck!
Unfortunately we have to brace ourselves for this to be soon an order of magnitude higher. I was going to say we had a good day yesterday with 1 death, and that hopefully the same again today.
When the twitterati gets back from Tescos, they are going to be going nuts over the government strategy.
Heard a great suggestion sent in to R5 Live - "when the Tokyo games get cancelled, BBC should run the whole of the London Olympics again in real time...."
Ugh. Just been on Twitter. Full of absolute morons.
The only use that Twitter serves is so that we know where the morons are at any particular time.
I really don't understand why people are on twitter. I have never been, and I certainly don't want to be now. PB can be brutal enough and most people on here are reasonable people.
Ugh. Just been on Twitter. Full of absolute morons.
The only use that Twitter serves is so that we know where the morons are at any particular time.
I really don't understand why people are on twitter. I have never been, and I certainly don't want to be now. PB can be brutal enough and most people on here are reasonable people.
I see its benefits in some areas, with rapid spread of genuine information and engaging with various notables, near notables and the rest of us, but I definitely don't see the point of much of it which is to whip people up into a frenzy. Each to their own I guess, but it just seems too exhausting to get so outraged all the time.
Braemar update: moored off the Bahamas, further passengers have come down with symptoms and are isolated in their cabins.
One expects in due course that someone will allow them to dock and the UK Government will then be required to repatriate the passengers at considerable inconvenience and expense.
People should be instructed to stop going on cruises for the duration - and if there are any companies still being irresponsible enough to continue sailings from UK ports then they should be made to desist immediately.
I hope they're going to still give updates on number of infections. If they don't I'm sure some fake news peddlers will make them up andclaim they are leaking them anyway.
Just back from the supermarket, plenty of bog rolls but no potatoes, most tinned soup gone all prepacked fresh meat And a few other odd shortages but we won’t run out of wine in Spain.
In my local supermarket all the potatoes were gone apart from the loose premium (I.e. Still have a bit of soil on them) potatoes
The supermarkets today aren't running out of stuff (other than bog roll, pasta* and sanitiser) because of stockpiling. It's because it appears the world and his wife couldn't think of anything else to do on a Saturday morning. There must have been 50% more at least there this morning (a large Sainsburys) than normal. A hell of a lot of the fresh food was empty.
*And they weren't actually "running out", you just had to go round 3 times to time arrival with them refilling the shelves from their stores.
Are these the same people screaming on twitter that the government are trying to kill us and should be stopping sporting events and closing schools?
Not sure - they would have to drag themselves away from twitter and pb.com.
And going for the fresh food? That stuff that everybody will have touched and won't last if the system does break down.
You'll notice my point above saying that this wasn't stockpiling. Just higher numbers than usual. Possibly because the online shopping isn't geared up to take the strain. So no choice but to revert to traditional shopping methods.
An actually intelligent idea would be to cook and freeze home made meals. That way, if/when you get ill, the microwave will be your friend.
That's what I have done. I have about 30 home made meals in the freezer. Spag bol, thick chicken stew, thai green curry. Plus a large iberica ham which will last another 10 days, washed down with ice cold fino. Plenty of spaghetti and rice. Feeling fine on day five. Just missing the exercise and fresh air.
Sounds great...can we all come around to yours for our tea?
He can regale us all with his tale of skiing for the Austrian border hotly pursued down the slopes by a bunch of armed carabinieri...
I presume we aren't getting the daily 2pm updates anymore.
"As of 9am on 14 March 2020, 37,746 people have been tested in the UK, of which 36,606 were confirmed negative and 1,140 were confirmed as positive. 21 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died."
I have taken time to come to terms with this. I have raised questions and expressed reservations based on the evidence of what other countries were doing. It seemed to me at times that the government’s policy was a counsel of despair resulting in the deaths of at least tens of thousands of our citizens. I do not accept that asking such questions and expressing such doubts is setting myself up as some form of “expert” or armchair general. We all have a stake in this. We are all going to lose family and friends.
With considerable reluctance and no little trepidation I have come to the view that the government’s policy is the best we can do on the known facts. Those facts may still change, especially if there is a breakthrough in treatment or vaccine but we cannot count on that. In the absence of such a breakthrough all we can do is get through this and take the pain.
Really? You are as pessimistic as that?
Yes. It’s inevitable, I’m afraid. How many people you lose depends upon your cohort. If you are 20 you may lose less than 1/200 people you know of that age. If you are 70+ I fear that you are more likely to lose 10-15/100 of those in your age group.
Braemar update: moored off the Bahamas, further passengers have come down with symptoms and are isolated in their cabins.
One expects in due course that someone will allow them to dock and the UK Government will then be required to repatriate the passengers at considerable inconvenience and expense.
People should be instructed to stop going on cruises for the duration - and if there are any companies still being irresponsible enough to continue sailings from UK ports then they should be made to desist immediately.
Many countries have banned all cruise ships from calling, and as of this morning one by one the cruise companies are cancelling all sailings for at least the next month.
The Braemar, I suspect, will end up limping back across the Atlantic and depositing its passengers in Southampton. Whether they can find a way to let the Americans off on that side of the ocean is the question.
Ugh. Just been on Twitter. Full of absolute morons.
The only use that Twitter serves is so that we know where the morons are at any particular time.
I really don't understand why people are on twitter. I have never been, and I certainly don't want to be now. PB can be brutal enough and most people on here are reasonable people.
My Twitter stream is an incredible source of knowledge. I am constantly learning from all kinds of extremely smart and creative people. There's nothing like it - it's just so great.
If your stream isn't like that, it's because you're following the wrong people. It can be hard to work out who to follow because dumb people are sayings like "your ad hominem simply strengthens my point" whereas smart people talk more like "my cat is a chonky boi"
Ugh. Just been on Twitter. Full of absolute morons.
The only use that Twitter serves is so that we know where the morons are at any particular time.
I really don't understand why people are on twitter. I have never been, and I certainly don't want to be now. PB can be brutal enough and most people on here are reasonable people.
Twitter is okay for posting factual information, or learning from experts / qualified people.
Ugh. Just been on Twitter. Full of absolute morons.
The only use that Twitter serves is so that we know where the morons are at any particular time.
I really don't understand why people are on twitter. I have never been, and I certainly don't want to be now. PB can be brutal enough and most people on here are reasonable people.
My Twitter stream is an incredible source of knowledge. I am constantly learning from all kinds of extremely smart and creative people. There's nothing like it - it's just so great.
If your stream isn't like that, it's because you're following the wrong people. It can be hard to work out who to follow because dumb people are sayings like "your ad hominem simply strengthens my point" whereas smart people talk more like "my cat is a chonky boi"
Heard a great suggestion sent in to R5 Live - "when the Tokyo games get cancelled, BBC should run the whole of the London Olympics again in real time...."
What can he say? There is no need to decide yet. Everyone knows it is very likely to be cancelled but if they say its in doubt, the pressure will just ramp up for a decision now.
Had an interesting chat with guy doing maintenance on the London Tube yesterday (parked up in the van outside waiting for shutdown).
Apparently, there are teams of vital workers in various industries - rail, power, water already in lockdown. They are being paid 24/7 to camp in remote(ish) industrial/maintenance facilities out of contact with anyone. Apparently, the idea is that even if everyone else come down with the lurgy, they can keep things going.
The chap in question was rather keen on getting in on the next round - the idea is that after x months in isolation, a replacement team will be setup, wait a bit to make sure none are sick and then then first team comes.. out??
The reason he was keen was the full hourly rate 24/7.... Didn't ask his hourly rate, but got to be something north of £50...
Prematurely infecting them and then quarantining would make more sense. Then you don’t have to worry your subs are going to be neutralised three days after they emerge.
On a completely unrelated note; where did Boris disappear to for two weeks?
I think that works across many companies. Were v quiet now so wouldn't be bad if a good chunk of staff got it so they were fit again when we're busier. Assuming most of are getting it at some time anyway, which seems to be what the CMO is suggesting.
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
But New Zealand is much more isolated from everywhere else than the UK.
And will have an interesting dilemma in the future if they want to rejoin the world.
NZ is approach autumn. They cannot cope with a “let rip” strategy. The idea will be to kill the tourist industry for a full two quarters and then relax restrictions in time for summer and hopefully more preparedness.
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
But New Zealand is much more isolated from everywhere else than the UK.
And will have an interesting dilemma in the future if they want to rejoin the world.
NZ is approach autumn. They cannot cope with a “let rip” strategy. The idea will be to kill the tourist industry for a full two quarters and then relax restrictions in time for summer and hopefully more preparedness.
Good point. They presumably have an advantage of a young population?
OK, this thing about experts giving different advice. What could be behind this is that they are being asked different questions.
WHO and various governments are asking 'How do we minimise the spread?'
UK government is asking 'How do we minimise the economic impact?'
Perhaps the UK government is thinking that not every country will be effective at minimising the spread, so it's never going to be eliminated anyway.
Let's see how New Zealand gets on. They are doing now what the UK are Ireland could have done a fortnight ago. But didn't.
But New Zealand is much more isolated from everywhere else than the UK.
And will have an interesting dilemma in the future if they want to rejoin the world.
NZ is approach autumn. They cannot cope with a “let rip” strategy. The idea will be to kill the tourist industry for a full two quarters and then relax restrictions in time for summer and hopefully more preparedness.
Good point. They presumably have an advantage of a young population?
Would have thought same as here? Ageing white population, younger immigrant population.
My 85 yr old father is over and I guess can be classified as having “underlying health problems” so I approve of the govt’s strategy.
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne · 15m He didn’t say that and it’s dangerous to spread lies in a national crisis 😡 . This tweet should be deleted immediately. Quote Tweet Carole Cadwalladr @carolecadwalla · 17h Director of World Health Organisation: Britain’s strategy is ‘wrong & dangerous’
Why am I not surprised she is spreading fake news on this?
lol Carole
Carole Cadwalladr @carolecadwalla Even NHS is breaking ranks. This is my local surgery. It’s taken a unilateral decision to ban in-patient visits until after phone consultation. This is not following government advice but it’s balancing risks to staff & vulnerable patients in absence of govt leadership
"Dear Patient, due to COVID 19 outbreak all appointments at your GP surgery from 16th March 2020 will initially be a telephone consultation. Visit nhs.uk for updated advice. Thank you"
Pasted as text because of her habit of deleting tweets (without acknowledgement or apology) once she's realised that they're totally insupportable. The thread beneath was a mixture of people explaining this is BoJo's strategy to wipe out the elderly, Dom's strategy to unleash a wave of eugenics, or just what everyone else's GP was doing too because...
Comments
If it manages to keep the system / society going, we just have to hope.
I even wrote this in my first post:
"Also I admit I do not completely understand it, so perhaps I am hopeful that I have missed something in my reasoning and the government plan actually makes some sense."
As for the virus helping to give immunity to all strains, why don't we wait for a less nasty version of the virus to build up herd immunity?
This is like Italy, they are leaking the lockdown before it occurs.
Just wanted to note that while the budget was unusual in handing out the pre-election bungs three years early, the herd immunity strategy front-loads as much death as possible into the optimum point in the electoral cycle, which is impressively Dom.
On a completely unrelated note; where did Boris disappear to for two weeks?
Pause.
Ah, my coat.
I am saying the west is in no position to push ideology elsewhere when it is divided itself and its own political system is broken. Because it just wont work.
When the twitterati gets back from Tescos, they are going to be going nuts over the government strategy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/51888491
Heard a great suggestion sent in to R5 Live - "when the Tokyo games get cancelled, BBC should run the whole of the London Olympics again in real time...."
People should be instructed to stop going on cruises for the duration - and if there are any companies still being irresponsible enough to continue sailings from UK ports then they should be made to desist immediately.
so up about 340 on yesterday
The Braemar, I suspect, will end up limping back across the Atlantic and depositing its passengers in Southampton. Whether they can find a way to let the Americans off on that side of the ocean is the question.
If your stream isn't like that, it's because you're following the wrong people. It can be hard to work out who to follow because dumb people are sayings like "your ad hominem simply strengthens my point" whereas smart people talk more like "my cat is a chonky boi"
This thread hasn’t been re-elected
They cannot cope with a “let rip” strategy.
The idea will be to kill the tourist industry for a full two quarters and then relax restrictions in time for summer and hopefully more preparedness.
Ageing white population, younger immigrant population.
My 85 yr old father is over and I guess can be classified as having “underlying health problems” so I approve of the govt’s strategy.
https://twitter.com/catherine5news/status/1238808367512129537